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The Effects of Climate Change in Two Flood Laden and Drought Stricken Areas in South Africa: Responses to Climate Change – Past, Present and Future

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The Effects of Climate Change in Two Flood Laden and Drought Stricken Areas in South Africa: Responses to Climate Change – Past, Present and Future The effects of climate change in two flood laden and drought stricken areas in South Africa: Responses to climate change – past, present and future Document Information Document Version Version 0.1.1 Number Document Type Research Report Short Title Responses to climate change Long Title The effects of climate change in two flood laden and drought stricken areas in South Africa: Responses to climate change – past, present and future. Applicability Upington and George areas, South Africa. Status Final report Main Contributors African Centre for Disaster Studies Niche Research Area: Cultural Dynamics of Water George Museum Author(s) Prof. Dewald van Niekerk1 Prof. Johann Tempelhoff2 Ms. Willi Faling3 Ms. Lynne Thompson4 Prof. Dawid Jordaan5 Mr. Christo Coetsee6 Ms. Yolanda Maartens7 Date of this Compilation 27 February 2009 Contact information [email protected] Client South African National Disaster Management Centre Copyright © 2009 South African National Disaster Management Centre Cover photographs (from top-left clockwise): Children playing at Kanoneiland in Upington (Credit: Ms. Willi Faling) George Township (Credit: Ms. Willi Faling) Springtide – Stormsriver Mouth (Credit: Mr. Gerhard Otto) A pan after a heavy rain storm close to Mier on 2008.11.30 at 14:25 (Credit: Prof. Johann Tempelhoff) Same pan as above on 2008.12.01 at 16:12 – 26 hours later (Credit: Prof. Johann Tempelhoff) Bridge over the Orange River in Upington (Credit: Ms. Willi Faling) 1 Prof. Dewald van Niekerk is the Director of the African Centre for Disaster Studies at the North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, South Africa. 2 Prof. Johann Tempelhoff is a historian and head of the niche research area: The Cultural Dynamics of Water at the North-West University, Vaaltriangle Campus, South Africa. 3 Ms. Willi Faling is a lecturer in Town and Regional Planning at the University of Pretoria, South Africa. 4 Ms Lynne Thompson, a volunteer at the George Museum, has written the major section on the changing climate in George. 5 Prof. Dawid Jordaan is a professor in the School of Information Technology, North West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, South Africa. 6 Mr. Christo Coetsee is a Masters degree student in Development and Management with a focus on Disaster Studies at the North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, South Africa. 7 Ms. Yolanda Maartens is a Masters degree student in Development and Management with a focus on Disaster Studies at the North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, South Africa. TABLE OF CONTENTS List of acronyms ............................................................................................................................ vi List of figures ................................................................................................................................ vii List of photos ................................................................................................................................ vii List of tables ................................................................................................................................. viii List of maps .................................................................................................................................. viii 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1 2. Rationale of the research project ........................................................................................ 7 2.1 Research problem ................................................................................................................................... 9 2.2 Objectives of the research ................................................................................................................... 9 2.3 Research methodology....................................................................................................................... 10 2.3.1 Data gathering .................................................................................................................................................... 12 2.3.2 Analysis of data .................................................................................................................................................. 13 2.4 Research questions ............................................................................................................................. 14 3. Humans and global warming: A historic perspective ............................................... 14 3.1 A historical overview of climate change in Southern Africa ................................................ 18 4. Sustainable urban development as a response to climate change ....................... 23 4.1 Cities are important in the climate change debate .................................................................. 23 4.2 Social and economic costs due to climate change-related disasters are rising ............. 24 4.3 Many poor people in South Africa face chronic vulnerability to hazards ....................... 25 4.4 Climate change adaptation and mitigation are not the first priority in developing nations ............................................................................................................................................................ 26 4.5 Sustainable development has become the common currency in environmental issues ............................................................................................................................................................... 27 5. The urban phenomenon in Africa and South Africa .................................................. 29 5.1 The origins and evolution of George and Upington ................................................................. 31 5.2 The geo-demographic characteristics of the George and //Khara Hais local municipalities ............................................................................................................................................... 33 5.2.1 George Local Municipality ............................................................................................................................ 33 5.2.2 //Khara Hais Local Municipality ................................................................................................................ 35 5.3 The economic characteristics of the two municipal areas .................................................... 37 iii 5.3.1 George Local Municipality ............................................................................................................................ 37 5.3.2 //Khara Hais Local Municipality ................................................................................................................ 38 6. Environmental pressures on the George and//Khara Hais environments ....... 40 6.1 George Local Municipality ................................................................................................................ 40 6.2 //Khara Hais Local Municipality .................................................................................................... 41 6.3 Temperature changes in the Upington and George regions ................................................. 43 6.4 Rainfall changes in the Upington and George regions ............................................................ 45 7. Institutional framework for disaster risk management and climate change... 47 8. Responses to climate change in George and //Khara Hais local municipalities50 8.1 Observed nature of climate change in the areas under investigation .............................. 52 8.1.1 //Khara Hais and its immediate environment...................................................................................... 52 8.1.2 George and its immediate environment .................................................................................................. 55 8.2 Observed effects of climate change on the local economy and local government functions in the areas under investigation ........................................................................................ 58 8.2.1 //Khara Hais and its immediate environment...................................................................................... 58 8.2.2 George and its immediate environment .................................................................................................. 60 8.3 Climate change mitigation ................................................................................................................ 64 8.3.1 //Khara Hais’ response to climate change ............................................................................................. 64 8.3.2 George’s responses to climate change ...................................................................................................... 67 8.4 Farming and the urban-rural nexus in the Northern Cape ................................................... 70 8.4.1 Drought conditions .......................................................................................................................................... 70 8.4.2 Irrigation farming ............................................................................................................................................. 72 8.4.3 Alternative crops and biofuels .................................................................................................................... 79 8.4.4 Livestock farming ............................................................................................................................................
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