The Effects of Climate Change in Two Flood Laden and Drought Stricken Areas in South Africa: Responses to Climate Change – Past, Present and Future

The effects of climate change in two flood laden and drought stricken areas in South Africa: Responses to climate change – past, present and future

Document Information Document Version Version 0.1.1 Number Document Type Research Report Short Title Responses to climate change Long Title The effects of climate change in two flood laden and drought stricken areas in South Africa: Responses to climate change – past, present and future. Applicability Upington and George areas, South Africa. Status Final report Main Contributors African Centre for Disaster Studies Niche Research Area: Cultural Dynamics of Water George Museum Author(s) Prof. Dewald van Niekerk1 Prof. Johann Tempelhoff2 Ms. Willi Faling3 Ms. Lynne Thompson4 Prof. Dawid Jordaan5 Mr. Christo Coetsee6 Ms. Yolanda Maartens7 Date of this Compilation 27 February 2009 Contact information [email protected] Client South African National Disaster Management Centre Copyright © 2009 South African National Disaster Management Centre

Cover photographs (from top-left clockwise):  Children playing at Kanoneiland in Upington (Credit: Ms. Willi Faling)  George Township (Credit: Ms. Willi Faling)  Springtide – Stormsriver Mouth (Credit: Mr. Gerhard Otto)  A pan after a heavy rain storm close to Mier on 2008.11.30 at 14:25 (Credit: Prof. Johann Tempelhoff)  Same pan as above on 2008.12.01 at 16:12 – 26 hours later (Credit: Prof. Johann Tempelhoff)  Bridge over the Orange River in Upington (Credit: Ms. Willi Faling)

1 Prof. Dewald van Niekerk is the Director of the African Centre for Disaster Studies at the North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, South Africa. 2 Prof. Johann Tempelhoff is a historian and head of the niche research area: The Cultural Dynamics of Water at the North-West University, Vaaltriangle Campus, South Africa. 3 Ms. Willi Faling is a lecturer in Town and Regional Planning at the University of Pretoria, South Africa. 4 Ms Lynne Thompson, a volunteer at the George Museum, has written the major section on the changing climate in George. 5 Prof. Dawid Jordaan is a professor in the School of Information Technology, North West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, South Africa. 6 Mr. Christo Coetsee is a Masters degree student in Development and Management with a focus on Disaster Studies at the North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, South Africa. 7 Ms. Yolanda Maartens is a Masters degree student in Development and Management with a focus on Disaster Studies at the North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, South Africa.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

List of acronyms ...... vi

List of figures ...... vii

List of photos ...... vii

List of tables ...... viii

List of maps ...... viii

1. Introduction ...... 1

2. Rationale of the research project ...... 7 2.1 Research problem ...... 9 2.2 Objectives of the research ...... 9 2.3 Research methodology...... 10 2.3.1 Data gathering ...... 12 2.3.2 Analysis of data ...... 13 2.4 Research questions ...... 14

3. Humans and global warming: A historic perspective ...... 14 3.1 A historical overview of climate change in Southern Africa ...... 18

4. Sustainable urban development as a response to climate change ...... 23 4.1 Cities are important in the climate change debate ...... 23 4.2 Social and economic costs due to climate change-related disasters are rising ...... 24 4.3 Many poor people in South Africa face chronic vulnerability to hazards ...... 25 4.4 Climate change adaptation and mitigation are not the first priority in developing nations ...... 26 4.5 Sustainable development has become the common currency in environmental issues ...... 27

5. The urban phenomenon in Africa and South Africa ...... 29 5.1 The origins and evolution of George and Upington ...... 31 5.2 The geo-demographic characteristics of the George and //Khara Hais local municipalities ...... 33 5.2.1 George Local Municipality ...... 33 5.2.2 //Khara Hais Local Municipality ...... 35 5.3 The economic characteristics of the two municipal areas ...... 37

iii

5.3.1 George Local Municipality ...... 37 5.3.2 //Khara Hais Local Municipality ...... 38

6. Environmental pressures on the George and//Khara Hais environments ...... 40 6.1 George Local Municipality ...... 40 6.2 //Khara Hais Local Municipality ...... 41 6.3 Temperature changes in the Upington and George regions ...... 43 6.4 Rainfall changes in the Upington and George regions ...... 45

7. Institutional framework for disaster risk management and climate change... 47

8. Responses to climate change in George and //Khara Hais local municipalities50 8.1 Observed nature of climate change in the areas under investigation ...... 52 8.1.1 //Khara Hais and its immediate environment...... 52 8.1.2 George and its immediate environment ...... 55 8.2 Observed effects of climate change on the local economy and local government functions in the areas under investigation ...... 58 8.2.1 //Khara Hais and its immediate environment...... 58 8.2.2 George and its immediate environment ...... 60 8.3 Climate change mitigation ...... 64 8.3.1 //Khara Hais’ response to climate change ...... 64 8.3.2 George’s responses to climate change ...... 67 8.4 Farming and the urban-rural nexus in the Northern Cape ...... 70 8.4.1 Drought conditions ...... 70 8.4.2 Irrigation farming ...... 72 8.4.3 Alternative crops and biofuels ...... 79 8.4.4 Livestock farming ...... 82 8.4.5 Pipeline sabotage ...... 89 8.4.6 Replacing livestock with game ...... 90 8.4.7 Signs of climate change from sources of local and indigenous knowledge ...... 91 8.4.8 Internal migratory trends: farm and urban nodes ...... 96 8.4.9 Hidden benefits of climate change: power supply ...... 97 8.5 Floods and the George region ...... 98 8.5.1 Floods ...... 102 8.6 Agriculture practices in George region ...... 109

9. Conclusion ...... 112

10. Recommendations ...... 113

10.1 Recommendations to the National Disaster Management Centre ...... 113 10.2 Recommendations to local and district municipalities ...... 115 10.3 Recommendations for communities and farmers ...... 117 10.4 Recommendations to other role-players ...... 118

11. Bibliography ...... 119

LIST OF ACRONYMS

CCAM Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model CMOA Coetzee and Maartens Oral Archive DM District municipality DoA Department of Agriculture EMBRAPA Brazilian Enterprise for Agricultural Research (Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária) FOA Faling Oral Archives GDP Gross Domestic Product GDS Growth and Development Strategy GHG Greenhouse gas GRI Garden Route Initiative IDP Integrated Development Plan IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Chance LED Local Economic Development LM Local municipality NDMAF National Disaster Management Advisory Forum (South Africa) NDMC National Disaster Management Centre (South Africa) SDF Spatial Development Framework SDI Sustainable Development Initiative TOA Tempelhoff Oral Archive VNOA Van Niekerk Oral Archive

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: A Schematic display of climate change in Southern Africa over the past 2000 years, based on evidence from oxygen isothopes, speleothemes, mollusc shells and foriminera...... 20

Figure 2: Fluctuations in temperatures and rainfall trends 1860-2000...... 20

Figure 3: Temperature and rainfall deviations for George (1951-2008) ...... 44

Figure 4: Temperature and rainfall deviations for Upington (1951-2008) ...... 44

Figure 5: Average annual rainfall in mm in 10 period 1878-2007 (George) ...... 101

Figure 6: Rainfall in 20-year periods 1888-2007 (George) ...... 101

Figure 7: Average 30-year periods per month of rainfall in George (measured in mm) ...... 102

LIST OF PHOTOS

Picture 1: A typical quiver tree in the Northern Cape (Aloe dichotoma) ...... 22

Picture 2: Coastal erosion in Wilderness ...... 56

Picture 3: An example of flood irrigation of grape in the Upington region ...... 75

Picture 4: Mr Dawid du Plessis stands in a dustbowl at a water valve almost covered in Kalahari sand, where his family had worked irrigated lands until the early 1970s...... 77

Picture 5: A typical camel thorn tree of the Kalahari (Acacia erioloba) ...... 78

Picture 6: The appetite suppressant: Hoodia Gordonii ...... 79

Picture 7: The castor bean plant (ricinus communis) ...... 81

Picture 8: Castor bean seeds ...... 82

Picture 9: Karakul ram ...... 85

Picture 10: Dorper sheep ...... 87

Picture 11: Damage caused by what locals describe as a ‘twister cyclone’ that hit the farm Klipkolk, to the west of Philandersbron and Rietfontein in the Northern

Cape...... 93

Picture 12: Despite buildings being more advanced and safe in modern times, according to Mr Bott, who himself is a building contractor with extensive experience, the winds tend to cause severe damage when the strike in the region of Philandersbron and Rietfontein...... 93

Picture 13: An example of a Concentrating Solar Power Plant ...... 98

Picture 14: Palmiet grass (Prionium serrata) ...... 110

Picture 15: The Black Wattle tree (Acacia mearnsii)...... 111

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Frequency of Floods in the George Area over the past 15 years ...... 106

Table 2: Major Floods in George area - 1878 to 2007 ...... 108

LIST OF MAPS

Map 1: Projected surface temperature changes for the late 21st century (2090- 2099) ...... 3

Map 2: Predicted water scarcity and stress in Africa (2025) ...... 4

Map 3: Potential increase in aridity may lead to changes in the geographical distribution of biomes in the Northern Cape ...... 32

Map 4: Location of the George Local Municipality within the Eden District Municipality in the Western Cape Province, South Africa ...... 34

Map 5: Eden District and Local Municipalities ...... 35

Map 6: National location of the //Khara Hais Local Municipality ...... 36

Map 7: Projected changed in yearly rainfall total (percentage) for South Africa (2070-2100) ...... 46

1. INTRODUCTION

Our past, present and future as human beings was, is and will be shaped by prevailing climatic conditions. Climate is the one global variable which has a direct and profound impact on every aspect of human existence. Our natural environment, economies, political and power structures, cultures, social interactions and developments are all shaped by climate. The progression in development and human technological advancement has had an intense and lasting impact on our natural environment, and our climate as a whole.

“Climate change as a global phenomenon is undisputed. Decades of scientific research into climate change and global warming has shown conclusive evidence that humans have gradually changed the global climate, largely due to the emission of greenhouse gasses (GHGs). Human-induced climate change is caused by the emissions of carbon dioxide and other GHGs that have accumulated in the atmosphere mainly over the past 100 years.”8

Climate change, and particularly global warming, is currently very much alive in the public realm in South Africa, for example, on 28 February 2009, Archbishop emeritus Desmond Tutu, Kofi Annan, and Mary Robinson launched the Global Humanitarian Forum’s Climate Justice Dialogue in front of a South African audience9. Thanks largely to scientists, whose disclosures about the phenomenon have become accessible to civil society through the media, people in many parts of South Africa have started taking note, in a new way, of the environments in which they live and the apparent changes that are taking place.10 Of particular importance is the fact that disaster risk reduction strategies are also already being contemplated in recent scientific studies on climate

8 N Stern. “The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review.” 2006. London: Government Printer. 9 Climate Justice Dialogue, hosted by the Global Humanitarian Forum in collaboration with the University of Pretoria on 28 February 2009.. 10 For example, there was a lively discussion on the radio station RSG between 08:00 and 09:00 on 2009.02.11 under the guidance of the radio announcer Freek Robinson who spoke with academics of the University of Pretoria responsible for the latest research in the field of climate change and its impact on South Africa. A notable feature of the discussion was the manner in which listeners called in by telephone to explain how they, in their individual and personal capacity, were busy trying to mitigate the potential negative impacts of global warming.

change.11

Many parts of South Africa are particularly prone to climatic extremes. Consequently, at grassroots level, climate change is a lively topic of discussion. In the popular discourse, it is a matter of comparing the environment and the way it used to be, with trends that seem to be out of the ordinary. If we go by what the pundits have to say, we will very soon be running out of time to make constructive interventions to prevent our irresponsible environmental behaviour from affecting the planet. At the time of the release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Chance’s Report (IPCC) in November 2007 panel chairman, Rajendra Pachauri stated that if there was no immediate action before 2012, it could well be too late.12

In the South African context the indications are that we have been experiencing discernable temperature changes since the nineteenth century. Warming has taken place at a rate of at least 2oC per century in the central interior of southern Africa over a number of decades. At the same time there has been a decline of about 1oC along the southern and south-eastern coastal regions of southern Africa in the same period of time.13 These measurements are based on the increase in South African surface rock temperatures derived from borehole temperature profiles.14 By 2050, it is estimated, the average temperatures would have risen by as much as 2oC in many parts of southern Africa. The minimum winter temperatures should increase by as much as 3oC.15 Projections by the IPCC of the late 21st century paint an even grimmer picture as Figure 1 shows.

11 G du T van Niekerk, MF Viljoen and HJ Booysen, “Aardverwarming en klimaatsverandering met spesifieke verwysing na Suid-Afrika: enkele perspektiewe” in Suid-Afrikaanse Tydskrif vir Natuurwetenskap en Tegnologie, 27(4), Desember 2008, pp. 294- 306. 12 TL Friedman, Hot, flat, and crowded: why the world needs a green revolution – and how we can renew our globale future, (Allan Lane, London 2008), p. 43. 13 PD Tyson and CK Gatebe, “The atmosphere, aerosols, trace gases and biogeochemical change in southern Africa: a regional integration” in South African Journal of Science, 97, March/April 2001, p. 106. 14 PD Tyson and CK Gatebe, “The atmosphere, aerosols, trace gases and biogeochemical change in southern Africa: a regional integration” in South African Journal of Science, 97, March/April 2001, p. 106. 15 PD Tyson and CK Gatebe, “The atmosphere, aerosols, trace gases and biogeochemical change in southern Africa: a regional integration” in South African Journal of Science, 97, March/April 2001, p. 116.

Map 1: Projected surface temperature changes for the late 21st century (2090-2099)16

The IPCC’s17 projected regional impact of climate change on Africa is as follows:

 By 2020, between 75 and 250 million of people are projected to be exposed to increased water stress due to climate change.  By 2020, in some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50%. Agricultural production, including access to food, in many African countries is projected to be severely compromised. This would further adversely affect food security and exacerbate malnutrition.  Towards the end of the 21st century, projected sea level rise will affect low-lying coastal areas with large populations. The cost of adaptation could amount to at least 5 to 10% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).  By 2080, an increase of 5 to 8% of arid and semi-arid land in Africa is projected under a range of climate scenarios.

Scientific models indicate that it is quite likely that in the areas under investigation,

16 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report – Summary for Policy Makers, 2007, Spain: IPCC, p. 9. 17 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report – Summary for Policy Makers, 2007, Spain: IPCC, p.11.

Upington in the Northern Cape Province will experience more frequent and intense drought periods, whereas the George area in the southern Cape (as part of the Western Cape Province) will be prone to more intense wet periods.

Map 2: Predicted water scarcity and stress in Africa (2025)18

Governments – in collaboration with civil society – should undertake to protect the people, infrastructure and other national assets on its territory from the impact of disasters – such as climate change-related disasters19. Sustainable urban development is key to addressing both climate change adaptation and mitigation. It means improved environmental quality, reduced vulnerability of people, infrastructure and other national assets, as well as social justice by ‘reducing the transfer of environmental costs

18 UNEP, GEO-2000 Africa. 2000. [Web:] http://www.unep.org/geo2000/ov-e/0004.htm, [Date of Access:] 25.02.2009. 19 Mason. 2006. Community disaster resilience: A Summary of the March 20, 2006 Workshop of the disasters roundtable’, Washington D.C.: Academies Press. ; Edwards. 1998. An interdisciplinary perspective on disasters and stress: the promise of an ecological framework’. Sociological Forum, vol. 13(1);115-132.; Oxfam. 2007. From to weather alert climate alarm: Disasters increase as climate change bites. Oxfam International. ..

to other people, other ecosystems or into the future’20. Despite this, climate change adaptation and mitigation seem to remain sophisticated rhetoric not yet institutionalised within the practice of decision-making in local governments in South Africa.

This research report provides insight into research conducted by the North-West University in collaboration with the University of Pretoria for the South African National Disaster Management Centre (NDMC). The research was commissioned as “blue sky” research which meant the client did not have a specific problem in mind but rather allowed the researchers to set the agenda. This allowed for a new and innovative trans-disciplinary focus on the problem of climate change. Although the research utilised scientific models and quantitative data, this research does not aim to provide statistical analysis of future climate change predictions. Rather, it is more concerned with: the historical development of the areas under investigation; explaining the role of sustainable development as a response to climate change; how communities, government officials and private individuals have, and are, experiencing the impact of climate change; how their current practices impact on climate change in urban and rural settings; and the perception of the role-players in terms of their adaptation strategies to climate change scenarios. Lastly, the research focussed on radical adaptation strategies which might have to be considered should the projected climate change scenario become a reality.

In order to gain a degree of variation in the research field, the //Khara Hais21 Local Municipality (Upington) within the Siyanda District Municipality (drought srtricken), and the George Local Municipality within the Eden District Municipality (flood laden), were selected as the research field.

20 Satterthwaite in Bulkeley & Betsill 2005: 1 21 Pronounced: [//kha-ra ha-jis]. (According to e-mail communication by Prof Dewald van Niekerk ([email protected]) with Prof. Bertus van Rooy ([email protected]), Research Chair: School of Languages, North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus and Prof Justus C Roux ([email protected]), Senior Researcher: Centre for Text Technology, North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus (2009.02.27).

//Khara Hais means ‘the place of trees’ or ‘the place of the big tree’. This, apparently, refers to a large tree under which Koranna-leader Klaas Lucas had his kraal.

2. RATIONALE OF THE RESEARCH PROJECT

Climate change mitigation and adaptation is of undisputed significance in terms of its possible contribution to disaster risk reduction. Limited research in the South Africa environment has been conducted to determine the impact of climate change on our cities. The joint 2007 Nobel Peace Prize award to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Mr. Al Gore22 for their work on climate change proves that this is a topical issue which needs urgent research and disaster risk reduction attention.

The nature and uncertainly of climate change makes a predictive study quite problematic. The aim of this research therefore is not to wager on possible future scenarios but rather to utilise historic and current primary and secondary data sources in order to determine what adaptation has already, and will need to take place, in order to mitigate the effect of climate change.

In this paper the authors are of the opinion that global warming is a reality. There are a number of indicators suggesting that within the next two decades there will be remarkable changes. This report is based on questions of this nature the authors asked themselves in early 2008 on the occasion of an informal meeting about climate change and the levels of preparedness for potential and anticipated natural hazards. In an attempt to form an impression of public views on the imminent changes to take place, it was decided to select two urban localities in South Africa, with diverse climate conditions – Upington in the Northern Cape and George in the Southern Cape – to compare the relative levels of awareness amongst locals about climate change. To what extent has the local authorities prepared themselves with disaster risk reduction strategies? And, what town planning alternatives deserve serious consideration?

22 See: http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/laureates/2007/ for more detail.

2.1 Research problem

The research problem can be stated as follow:

Climate change has, and will increasingly have a profound impact on the occurrence of flood and drought in the areas of George and Upington, South Africa.

2.2 Objectives of the research

Given the contrasting yet similar conditions from a disaster risk perspective, the objective was to interview local residents and professionals in Upington and George to determine their awareness of climate change from their personal observations. In the case of Upington, as a result of a paucity of indigenous knowledge,23 the focus was extended to look at the specific localities in the larger Siyanda District Municipal region. The rationale was that specific conditions of human-river interaction, in the case of irrigation farmers would be investigated. In the case of livestock farming the focus was on human consciousness and familiarity with the environment, as well as the manner in which the assumed state of climate change may, indirectly, have influenced livestock farmers to make adjustments. There is then also, from the perspective of the local mitigation of potential disaster risk conditions, suggestions for some adjustments in respect of meat production activities. The objective was to locate sources of local knowledge and awareness about climate change.

Farming forms an integral part of the economy and social texture of Upington. An important aspect of the social structure of the urban settlement is that a large percentage of the local farming community are either permanently resident in Upington, or many resort to the husband commuting daily or weekly between the farm and the urban settlement. Although the arrangement may be considered to be

23 Johann Tempelhoff spent several days, trying telephonically to communicate with community leaders in Upington and its immediate environments, who could bring him in touch with local indigenous people who were aware of climate changes. All attempts proved futile. Consequently, in November-December 2008, on the occasion of a second fieldwork excursion, interviews were conducted with local residents of Philandersbron and Rietfontein in the northern parts of Siyanda District Municipality. They provided valuable information and some sound views, based on a long local interaction between humans and their environment.

customary for the local farming community, since the early twentieth century, there is also reason to believe that it is increasingly as a result of security constraints that some farmers no longer tend to be permanently resident on the land. Thus, Upington and its farming community pose an interesting problem when it comes to understanding the demographics of the local population. It has, in the form of internal and local migration processes, specific implications for our comprehension of essential mitigation steps to reduce disaster risks induced by climate change. It will be dealt with in greater detail below.

As far as George is concerned, the nature of local knowledge collected was in the form of a number of very focused interviews, as well as the knowledge of volunteers at the George Museum. These people, who have been researching aspects of George’s climate for a number of years from a historical perspective, it is argued within the context of trans-disciplinary research strategies, have valuable information to share, in respect of their researches on local trends of climate change.

The focus of this report is to (1) explain the role of sustainable development as a response to climate change; (2) sketch a profile of George and //Khara Hais local municipalities; and (3) investigate to what extent climate change adaptation and mitigation are being addressed through sustainable development in the two local municipalities in question.

2.3 Research methodology

The research utilised a mixed approach which included both qualitative and quantitative data. In most instances primary data was obtained through a qualitative approach whereas quantitative data were utilised for statistical analysis and to support the main arguments in the study. The methodology for research was further based on primary and secondary data from the two local councils of //Khara Hais and George, as well as the two district municipalities of Eden (Western Cape) and Siyanda (Northern Cape). The secondary research includes an analysis of all planning strategies, plans, and instruments relevant to development.

Various people in key positions in local, district and provincial government, urban planning professionals in the private sector, as well as chambers of commerce, an insurance company and estate agents were interviewed to gain an understanding of (1) if, and to what extent they experience climatic change; and (2) what effects climate change have on business, agriculture, tourism and the built environment. Furthermore, a number of strategic urban planning documentation was analysed to determine (3) the extent to which sustainable development measures are being implemented to mitigate for and adapt to climate change.

In the case of //Khara Hais this documentation included the Integrated Development Plans (IDP) for //Khara Hais Local Municipality (LM) and Siyanda District Municipality (DM), the Spatial Development Framework (SDF) for //Khara Hais LM and the Growth and Development Strategy (GDS) for Siyanda DM. The District Municipality does not have a disaster management plan due to a lack of funding, and the SDF was not yet finalised at the time of the analysis.

For George, the documentation included the Integrated Development plans (IDP) and the Spatial Development Framework (SDF) for both George LM and Eden DM, the Local Economic Development (LED) Strategy for George LM, the Growth and Development Strategy (GDS) and the State of the Environment Report for Eden DM, and the Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for the Western Cape Province.

2.3.1 Data gathering

Specific qualitative methods in this research included direct observations and individual interviews. Data were digitally recorded and transcribed or photographed to ensure accuracy24.

24 AG Tuckett, A.G., “Rigour in Qualitative Research: complexities and solutions”, Researcher, 2005, 13(1), pp.29-42.

2.3.1.1 Observations

Observations were used for the purpose of describing settings, activities, people, and the meanings of what are observed from the perspective of the participants. Observation can lead to deeper understandings than interviews alone, because it provides knowledge of the context in which events occur, and may enable the researcher to see things that participants themselves are not aware of, or that they are unwilling to discuss25.

2.3.1.2 Individual interviews

Interviews were conducted because this research was concerned with the subjective meanings of peoples’ experience of climate change and the exploration of the research topic was too complex to be investigated by means of a questionnaire26. Open-ended questions were introduced, and probing questions were used to obtain more in-depth and rich information. The aims of the interviews were to go below the surface of the topic and to uncover new ideas.

2.3.2 Analysis of data

Thematic content analysis is a coherent way of organising the research data in relation to the specific research question27. A thematic analysis was conducted by reading the entire interview and several important topics were identified, which become the potential categories. These broad categories were sorted into groups and organised into themes. The data was analysed according to the eight steps of data analysis as outlined by Tesch28 and Henning, van Rensburg & Smit29. These include:

25 LR Gay, GE Mills, & P Airasian, Educational research, 2006, 11th New Jersey: Ed.Pearson/Merril Prentice Hall. 26 E Burman, “Interviewing”, In P. Banister (Ed.), Qualitative methods in psychology: a research guide, 1994, Buckingham: Open University Press. 27 E Burman, “Interviewing”, In P. Banister (Ed.), Qualitative methods in psychology: a research guide, 1994, Buckingham: Open University Press. 28 R Tesch, 1990, Qualitative research: Analysis types and software tools. New York: Flamer.

Thorough reading through and making notes of all transcribed material; Consider the substance of interviews conducted, looking for the underlying meaning;

Compile a list of all topics that came to the fore in the research; Cluster these topics;

By using a clustered list, once again consider the data. Code the topics and correlate coding with data;

Elaborate on the topics with the aim to turn them into certain categories and determine interrelationship;

Make a final decision on the coding of the categories and alphabetise the list; and If necessary, recode existing data.

The intention is to use a qualitative as well as quantitative research approach for this research project. The methodology for research question one will be based on desktop research that will concentrate on historical information, case studies and recent projections about the impact of climate change. The second question will be assessed in the light of findings from these first research questions.

2.4 Research questions

The research aimed to answer the following questions:

What historical and tacit knowledge and traditions exists in the local communities as evidence of climate change and variation?

What are/were the human historical responses to climate change and variation? How has climate change influenced the location, growth and development of urban areas in the past? How is climate change influencing the growth and development of urban areas at present? How will climate change influence the growth and development of urban areas in

29 E Henning, W van Rensburg & B, Smit, Finding your way in qualitative research, 2004, Pretoria: Van Schaik.

future?

How have the two cities of George and Upington came about?

In light of the above, has the planning of the built environment in the two cities of George and Upington been adapted to respond to the threat of climate change? If so, what socio-economic, institutional, physical and environmental measures have been taken to respond to the challenges of climate change? What lessons can be learnt and applied in similar urban areas in South Africa?

What mitigation projects/programmes can be implemented towards disaster risk reduction?

3. HUMANS AND GLOBAL WARMING: A HISTORIC PERSPECTIVE

In the 1970s, when research on global warming started making headway in the scientific world, a seminal article written by Sagan, Toon and Pollock, gave an exposition of the manner in which humans have been responsible for influencing the earth’s climate.30 Their focus on the extent to which an object reflects light from the sun brought into play the disciplines of astronomy and climatology. Their reference to the ‘Anthropogenic Era’, focused on the manner in which human beings had been historically responsible for environmental changes on planet earth. In essence, they argued, it would be possible to classify the history of humans into three epochs, i.e. hunting, gathering, agriculture, and technology.31

Over a period of many thousands of years, at least 25 000 before the present, we as humans have asserted a major influence on the climate of the earth. However, it was primarily in the third epoch – one of refined technology and extraordinary population growth – that we reached a point where the most significant inroads were made on what previously were factors external to human interventions. The technological epoch has been notable for progress in the form or urbanisation (heat islands), the expansion of farmlands (the concentration of surface and water pollutants), the creation of

30 C Sagan, OB Toon and JB Pollock, “Anthropogenic albedo changes and the earth’s climate” in Science, 206(4425), 1979.12.21, pp. 13630-1368. 31 C Sagan, OB Toon and JB Pollock, “Anthropogenic albedo changes and the earth’s climate” in Science, 206(4425), 1979.12.21, p. 1364.

artificial lakes (alterations to the hydrological cycle), the production of synthetic chemicals (the destruction of soil by increased erosion), generation of energy (major alterations to the composition of the atmosphere with carbon dioxide, aerosols and smog), production of raw materials (destruction of natural plant and animal species, deforestation and desertification). Our growing and acute awareness of global warming is often confined to the rapid development that has taken place in the world over the past 250 years.32 It started with the Industrial Revolution in Europe in the 1740s. Vast amounts of energy were used for the mass production of goods and services at a remarkable rate. In the early phases of the era the fossil fuel -- coal, was a source of energy used to generate steam and later electricity. As technology developed other types of fossil fuels (oil and gas) were also put to use in the production of energy in what became known as the developed countries of the world, primarily in the Northern Hemisphere. In the process large amounts of carbon dioxide (C02) were released into the atmosphere. At first it hardly had an effect. For example, in 1750 there were approximately 270 particles per million (PPM) in earth’s atmosphere. Gradually larger amounts of carbon dioxide were released, in conjunction with other substances that could assert a marked effect on the atmosphere. By 2005 there was 380 ppm in the atmosphere.33

This may sound like small and insignificant quantities. However when we translate the information into more substantive figures of consumption, the red lights begin to flash. For example, globally we have been using 350 times more coal than we used in 1800. What is more, we are now said to be using 350 times more oil than we used in 1900.34 The number of coal-fired power stations and petroleum-engine vehicles increased at a rapid rate in the twentieth century. All these have contributed to the release of large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. What is most perturbing is the fact that the real levels of release increased markedly as of the 1950s. Some of the most accurate and consistent measures done, at Mona Loa in Hawaii, inform us that the

32 M Falkenmark, “Rapid population growth: the predicament of tomorrow’s Africa” in Population and Development Review, 16(Supplement: Resources, environment and population), 1990, p. 82. 33 C Ponting, A new green history of the world: the environment and the collapse of great civilisations, (Revised edition, Vintage Books, London 2007), p. 386. 34 C Ponting, A new green history of the world: the environment and the collapse of great civilisations, (Revised edition, Vintage Books, London 2007), p. 386.

carbon dioxide rose from 316 ppm in 1959, to 345 ppm in 1985 and 381 ppm by 2005.35

Carbon dioxide (about 66%) is by far the largest amount of greenhouse gas released into the atmosphere. However, it is not the only gas that could potentially influence the atmosphere. Methane gas, mainly generated in the process of food production, is a most potent gas. For thousands of years human beings have been hunting wildlife, gathering edible plants in the wild. Between 7000 and 5000 years before the present (yBP) societies started domesticating certain forms of wildlife, such as sheep and cattle. Soon they also domesticated certain edible plants for food production. The large-scale global population growth experienced since 1800 (when there were a mere one billion people on the globe) was partly made possible by better and improved large-scale food production to sustain the 6,5 billion people on the globe at present. In former times humans in all parts of the world survived on small amounts of food. For example in Europe36 and in southern Africa the original indigenous people37 did not have a consistent supply of large amounts of animal flesh. As a rule they ate small types of animals that were easy to hunt. Only in later times, as they improved technologies of hunting, did humans consistently resorted to eating large amounts of flesh. Methane gas is produced in the stomachs of livestock as a subsidiary of indigestion. The world’s supply of livestock has substantially increased since the 1890s. Correspondingly the amount of methane in the atmosphere has increased by 250 per cent in the atmosphere – from 0,7 ppm in 1750 to 1,72 ppm at present. Currently, this extremely dangerous gas increases in the atmosphere by about 1 per cent per annum.38

35 C Ponting, A new green history of the world: the environment and the collapse of great civilisations, (Revised edition, Vintage Books, London 2007), p. 387. 36 R Spowers, Rising tides: the history and future of the environmenta movement, (Canongate, Edinburgh, 2002), pp. 239- 242. 37 See for example descriptions of De Vylder in the nineteenth century of how the Khoikhoi chose to eat small game such as jackal and hare. I and J Rudner (editors and translators), “The journal of Gustav de Vylder: naturalist in South-Western Africa (1873-1875)” in Van Riebeeck Society Series 2/28, 1997, (Van Riebeeck Society, Cape Town, 1998), p. 62. Entry: 1873.05.31; and p. 61. Entry: 1873.05.29; AB Smith and W Metelerkamp, “Ecology and resources in the Middle and Lower Orange River hinterland” in AB Smith (ed.), Eingqualand: studies of the Orange River frontier, (UCT Press, Cape Town, 1995), p. 7. 38 C Ponting, A new green history of the world: the environment and the collapse of great civilisations, (Revised edition, Vintage Books, London 2007), p. 387.

Global warming seems to have its advocates and cynics.39 In many parts of the world there are experts contesting global warming, stating that it is not much more than a myth, with no conclusive proof of the existence of the phenomenon.40 Yet, most agree that we are facing serious problems as a result of greenhouse gas emissions, and especially carbon dioxide released in the air. Few experts contest the issue of rapid population growth. Consequently, given the fact that there seems to be consensus on certain conditions, we have to assume that in some way or another we are facing certain threats. For example, Southern Africa, as one of the thirty-odd most arid regions in the world, would most likely be subject to severe environmental pressures. While the climate in the northern hemisphere is expected to become wetter as a result of the warming process, our climate will become drier.41 Ironically it means that ‘when change comes, it will probably be too fast for species to adapt at a genetic level’.42 Chances are that the human species may just find it difficult to adjust to these changes. These trends manifest in the most peculiar of ways. In June 2003 a severe heat wave started in Europe, lasting until mid-August with the highest temperatures ever (between 35 and 40 degrees C) measured in many places. In the United Kingdom the all-time high of 38,1 C was registered while in France it soared to 40 degrees. Fatalities were remarkable: France 14 082, Germany 7 000, Spain 4 200, Italy 4 000, UK 2 045, Netherlands 1 400, Portugal 13 090 and Belgium 150.43 South African statistics on material damage and loss of human lives in informal settlements as a result of floods and other natural disasters suggest that we may be experiencing similar problems without a reasonable awareness of the role of changing climatic conditions.

39 G du T van Niekerk, MF Viljoen and HJ Booysen, “Aardverwarming en klimaatsverandering met spesifieke verwysing na Suid-Afrika: enkele perspektiewe” in Suid-Afrikaanse Tydskrif vir Natuurwetenskap en Tegnologie, 27(4), Desember 2008, pp. 294- 306. 40 JJ Brits, A response or non-response to global warming: an exploratory study of the three metropolitans municipalities in Gauteng, (Baccalaureus Town and regional planning, University of Pretoria, 2007), p. 7. 41 LS Joubert, Scorched: South Africa’s changing climate, (Wits University Press, Johannesburg, 2006), pp. 31-32. 42 JM Orpen, Reminiscences of life in South Africa from 1864 to the present day, Volumes I and II, ([1908], C Struik, Cape Town, 1964), p. 92. 43 A De Bono, G Giuliani, S Kluser and P Peduzi, “Impacts of summer 2003 heat wave in Europe” in UNEP Grid Europe, March 2004 at http://www.grid.unep.ch/product/publication/download/ew_heat_wave.en.pdf (Accessed 2009.01.06).

3.1 A historical overview of climate change in Southern Africa

There are some surviving narrative discourses dealing with evidence on mid- nineteenth century climate change in South Africa. In 1865 James Fox Wilson, in an article published in the Journal of the Royal Geographical Society explained how the Orange River region had basically dried up. He used the example of Kuruman’s water supply, where the Rev. Robert Moffat, David Livingstone’s father-in-law, had established irrigation.44 By the mid-1860s the source was dry. East of the Kalahari, he explained, the land seemed as if it was an ‘old neglected garden’.

Wilson was not alone in his observations. Also JC Brown, a former Cape Colonial botanist was most perturbed by the ‘drying out’ of the interior of South Africa. In one of his many publications of the 1870s he painstakingly pointed how climate change, based on his earlier recollections of the Cape and his personal observations in the 1860s, had affected the region. He mentioned, for example:

(A) great change in the external physical characteristics of the entire region between the Orange and the ‘Ngami Lake has taken place since the country was first explored by

Europeans.45

Both Wilson and Brown eagerly propagated the ‘reforestation’ of the land to attract rainfall and promote the conservation of the environment. Richard Grove, sees the work of Brown and Wilson in the context of Scottish thinkers on the environment who were strongly in favour of forestation in the second half of the nineteenth century. He also points out that they, as was the case with David Livingstone, observed the effects of what in the twentieth century was classified as the consequence of the El Niño drought of 1862.46

44 JF Wilson, “Water supply in the basin of the River Orange, or ‘Gariep, South Africa” in Journal of the Royal Geographical Society f London, 35, 1865, pp. 107. 45 JC Brown, Hydrology of South Africa: or details of the former hydragraphic conditions of the Cape of Good Hope, and of causes of its present aridity, with suggestions of appropriate remedies for this aridity (Henry S. King & Co, London, 1875), p. 109. 46 R Grove, “Scotland in South Africa: John Croumbie Brown and the roots of settler environmentalism” in T Griffith, and L Robin (eds.), Ecology and Empire: environmental history and settler societies, (Keele University Press and University of Natal Press, Pietermaritzburg, 1997), p. 150.

The comprehensive investigations of Tyson and a variety of researchers that have worked with him over a long time, suggest that over the past two millennia there have been significant climatic changes in Southern Africa. There are clear indications of climate warming. The following chart provides some perspective:

Figure 1: A Schematic display of climate change in Southern Africa over the past 2000 years, based on evidence from oxygen isothopes, speleothemes, mollusc shells and foriminera.47 Confining themselves to a more specific period of time, Tyson and his associates, noted changing trends in rainfall and temperatures between the 1860s and 2000.48

47 MQW Jones, PD Tyson & GRJ Cooper, “Modelling climate change in South Africa from perturbed Borehole temperature profiles” in Quarternary International, Vol. 57-58, June 1999, p. 188 (pp. 185-192.), pp. 185-192. 48 K Homgren, PD Tyson, A Moberg & O Svanered, “A preliminary 3000-year regional temperature reconstruction for South Africa” in South African Journal of Science, 97, Jan-Feb., 2001, pp. 49-51.

Figure 2: Fluctuations in temperatures and rainfall trends 1860-2000.49

When this data is interpreted historically with a view to forming an impression of the phenomenon of environmental refugeeism, in periods of mass migration, it becomes evident that climate change has asserted a major influence on the socio-economic livelihoods of the country’s population.50

The intention of this study is not to be alarmist. However, there is a need to take note and contemplate from the perspective of disaster risk reduction what can be done to secure human livelihoods in southern Africa. We now know that Africa is one of the regions that will be most directly affected by global warming.51 South Africa,52 despite its relatively high level of economic development, is not excluded from these projections. As rainfall decreases in the drier parts of the country, we will be in for longer and more extensive droughts.53 Already there are clear indications of Aloe

49 K Homgren, PD Tyson, A Moberg & O Svanered, “A preliminary 3000-year regional temperature reconstruction for South Africa” in South African Journal of Science, 97, Jan-Feb., 2001, pp. 49-51. 50 JWN Tempelhoff, Omgewingslagoffers of armblankes? Water en welvaartskepping in die era van Hertzog (1924-1939). 35e Genl JBM Hertzoggedenklesing, Suid-Afrikaanse Akademie vir Wetenskap en Kuns, Pretoria, 2006.09.21. 51 M Hulme, R Doherty, T Ngara and M New, “Global warming and African climate change: a reassessment” in PS Low, Climate change and Africa, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and Cape Town, 2005), pp. 29-40. 52 LS Joubert, Scorched: South Africa’s changing climate, (Wits University Press, Johannesburg, 2006). 53 G Monbiot, Heat: how to stop the planet burning, (Allan Lane, London, 2006), p. 6.

dichotoma, the quiver tree, migrating south from its endemic regions in the Northern Cape as a result of climate-induced stress.54

Picture 1: A typical quiver tree in the Northern Cape (Aloe dichotoma)55

The erratic rainfall patterns in the Southern Cape coastal region are considered to be only the preamble to major biodiversity changes to come. Desertification in what has traditionally been one of the indigenous garden regions of South Africa is a real threat.56 In fact, we at the southern tip of the continent are in for remarkable changes. It is bound to affect the very spaces in which we daily live and earn our keep. The customary lifestyle of modern South Africa, the unique product of an evolutionary cultural process that has taken place over a period of more than four centuries, is bound to undergo some uncomfortable and inconvenient adjustments in a land that is famous for its sunshine. Other problems are also on the horizon. Apart from critical issues of food security in a country with rapid population growth, we will also have to contend with the manner in which we develop our rapidly expanding urban

54 R Oosthuizen and J John, “Atmosphere and climate specialist report” in Northern Cape State of the Environment report: atmosphere and climate specialist report (Department environmental affairs and tourism, Pretoria 2005), p. 4. 55 Photograph credit: Prof. Johann Tempelhoff, Vaaltriangle Campus, North-West University, South Africa. 56 Tempelhoff Oral Archive (TOA): Interview with Ms Pauline Lourens, journalist and specialist in local climate change, George and Knysna Herald, George, 2008.12.04.

environments. For example, in the case of Gauteng it is estimated that as a result of the increase in rainfall intensity, by as much as 23 per cent, the storm water infrastructure of the province would not be sufficient.57 Given the fact that natural disasters could become more commonplace than before in many parts of the country, the question presents itself: how are we going to secure ourselves and prepare strategies for disaster risk reduction?

4. SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT AS A RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

4.1 Cities are important in the climate change debate

During the last decade the city has been seen as central to the pursuit of sustainable development. The impact of climate change on human settlements will range from insignificant to catastrophic. Human settlements tend to develop and grow in areas of high industrial or agricultural potential – areas with a favourable climate, near coastlines, rivers, lakes or close to major transportation routes. Climate change will alter regional agricultural and industrial potential and could trigger large-scale migrations and redistribution of people. Population displacement can result in serious socio-economic disruptions, negative health impacts and increased human suffering. Migrating populations would create housing, employment, infrastructure and other problems for regions suddenly faced with large numbers of climate-change migrants, the result being a growing concentration of poverty in the most vulnerable areas of cities58.

The impact cities have on global warming could be catastrophic. More than half of the world’s population is urbanised. This means that consumption and production are increasingly of an urban nature, so that many environmental problems on a local and

57 JJ Brits, A response or non-response to global warming: an exploratory study of the three metropolitans municipalities in Gauteng, (Baccalaureus Town and regional planning, University of Pretoria, 2007), p. 8. 58 Hardy, J.T. 2003. Climate change: Cause, effects and solutions. Chichester: John Wiley and Sons

global level – more specifically global warming – are a result of activities of urban individuals, communities and industries59.

Sustainable urban development with the aim of disaster risk reduction60, is ‘critically important to adapting to the changing climate’ with the ‘ultimate goal of reducing vulnerability to weather and climate hazards’61. It is thus crucial to integrate climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction measures with development plans62.

4.2 Social and economic costs due to climate change-related disasters are rising

It is commonly accepted that climate change-related hazards and resulting disasters are on the increase. Global warming has caused a record number of natural disasters across the world in 2007, nearly 20 percent more than in 200663. Urban areas in developing countries, such as South Africa, experience major setbacks in hard-won economic and social development following a disaster, since many have insufficient capacities to predict, monitor, mitigate and manage hazards and disasters. Scarce funds from longer-term development objectives are diverted to short-term emergency relief and reconstruction needs when a disaster arises. This immensely frustrates efforts to achieve sustainable development. Urban areas in South Africa are therefore particularly vulnerable where the combination of structural poverty, substandard infrastructure and housing, high population densities, the concentration of economic assets, and commercial and industrial activities magnify the problem. Due to rapid

59 Bukley & Betsill. 2005. Cities and climate change: Urban sustainability and global governace. Oxon: Routledge 60 Disaster risk reduction is defined by the UN/ISDR (2004) as ‘the conceptual framework of elements considered with the possibilities to minimise vulnerabilities and disaster risks throughout a society, to avoid (prevention) or to limit (mitigation and preparedness) the adverse impacts of hazards, within the broad context of sustainable development.’ 61 UN/ISDR. 2008. Disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate chage. [Web:] http://www.unisdr. org/eng/risk- reduction/climate-change/cc-adaptation.html. [Date of acces:] 18 April 2008. 62 Annan, K.A. (1999) Preventing War and Disaster: A Growing Global Challenge, New York: United Nations.; United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction UN/ISDR. 2005. Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015: Building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters, [Web:] http://www.unisdr.org/eng/hfa/hfa.htm. [Date of Access:] 18 April 2008.; World Bank. 2003. Building safer cities: The future of disaster risk. Disaster Risk Management Series. No. 3.; UN/ISDR. 2008. Disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate chage. [Web:] http://www.unisdr. org/eng/risk-reduction/climate-change/cc- adaptation.html. [Date of acces:] 18 April 2008. 63 International Federation of Red Cross (IFRC) and Red Crescent Societies. 2007. World Disasters Report 2007. [Web:] http://www.ifrc.org/publicat/wdr2007/ summaries.asp. [Date of Access:] 23 Augustus 2008

urbanisation in South Africa, more and more people have been forced to live on floodplains, unstable hillsides, and sinkhole zones – causing loss of livelihoods, aggravating poverty, and the destruction of productive assets and vital infrastructure. So although the number of deaths caused by natural hazards may have declined, the socio-economic costs of natural hazards have increased64. If climate change and its effects are left unchecked, the plight of millions of poor people in South Africa will worsen.

4.3 Many poor people in South Africa face chronic vulnerability to hazards

South Africa faces increasing occurrences of floods, tornadoes and hailstorms, storms, heavy rain and winds, veld fires and winds, snow, and drought; fuelling the trend of rising social and economic costs. Almost half the population is frequently exposed to multiple hazards and live in conditions of chronic vulnerability to hazards. In addition, South Africa's extensive coastline and our shared borders with six other nations present many more risks, as well as obligations in times of emergency to those countries. South Africa furthermore experiences stark levels of social inequality, exclusion and poverty. The interaction between existing local inequalities and new emerging forms of inequality due to globalisation leads to even higher levels of marginalisation, vulnerability and poverty65.

64 Annan, K.A. 1999. Preventing War and Disaster: A Growing Global Challenge. New York: United Nations, Department of Provincial and Local Government. 2006. Pilot study on the socio-economic impacts of disasters, South-Africa: 1994-2004. Department of Provincial and Local Government, International Federation of Red Cross (IFRC) and Red Crescent Societies. 2007. World Disasters Report 2007. [Web:] http://www.ifrc.org/publicat/wdr2007/ summaries.asp. [Date of Access:] 23 Augustus 2008 ; National Population Unit. 2000. The state of South Africa’s population report 2000: Population, poverty and vulnerability. Department of Social Development.; United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction UN/ISDR. 2005. Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015: Building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters, [Web:] http://www.unisdr.org/eng/hfa/hfa.htm. [Date of Access:] 18 April 2008; World Bank 2003: xiv; . World Bank. 2006. Hazards of Nature, Risks to Development. [Web:] http://www.worldbank.org/ieg/naturaldisasters/docs/natural_ disasters_evaluation.pdf. [Date of Access:] 11 September 2008.; World Bank. 2006. Natural disaster hotspots: Case studies: Disaster Risk Management Series. No.6. Washington D.C.: The World Bank Hazard Management Unit. 65 Anderson, M.B. & Woodrow, P.J. 1998. Rising from the ashes: Development strategies in times of disaster. Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers:; Annan, K.A. 1999. Preventing War and Disaster: A Growing Global Challenge. New York: United Nations.; Department of Provincial and Local Government. 2006. Pilot study on the socio-economic impacts of disasters, South-Africa: 1994- 2004. Department of Provincial and Local Government; National Population Unit. 2000. The state of South Africa’s population Report 2000: Population, poverty and vulnerability. Department of Social Development.; Republic of South Africa. 2005. National disaster management framework. Pretoria:Government printer.; United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction UN/ISDR. 2005. Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015: Building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters, [Web:] http://www.unisdr.org/eng/hfa/hfa.htm. [Date of Access:] 18 April 2008;:

Municipalities should therefore be asking themselves when, where and by how much the climate will change, and how this will affect their urban residents? Will it be gradual and incremental, or will it be unpredictable climatic change? Who should do something about it, what should be done, and where?

4.4 Climate change adaptation and mitigation are not the first priority in developing nations

There are various ways to reduce human-induced climate change. Hardy66 and Munasinghe and Swart67 mention the following: capture or sequester carbon emissions; reduce global warming or its effects through geo-engineering; enhance natural carbon sinks; convert to carbon-free and renewable energy technologies; conserve energy and use it more effectively; or adapt to climate change.

However, even if emissions were drastically reduced soon, the earth’s climate will continue to warm for some time. Many argue that we must prepare for inevitable climate change. Though adaptation does not solve the long-term problem of damage and increased costs from continued CO2 emissions, it could be effective, especially if the value of the resulting benefit is greater than the cost of adaptation. The economic benefit from climate change adaptation also depends on the cost of not adapting. Carbon taxes, mass-transit systems and increased use of alternative energy sources are very expensive in the short-term, but could have numerous long-term benefits in air quality, human health and mitigate climate change. There will also be many ancillary benefits when policies to mitigate climate change are implemented. These include health, ecological, economic, and social benefits. If these benefits can be given monetary value, they can be subtracted from the cost of mitigation68.

South African cities have less ability to adapt technologically to climate change than

66 Hardy, J.T. 2003. Climate change: Cause, effects and solutions. Chichester: John Wiley and Sons. 67 Munasinghe, M. & Swart, R. 2005. Primer on climate change and sustainable development: Facts, policy analysis and applications, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 68 Hardy, J.T. 2003. Climate change: Cause, effects and solutions. Chichester: John Wiley and Sons.

developed nations because we have more urgent developmental priorities – such as economic development. Often economic development is highly dependent on climate- sensitive industries such as forestry, agriculture and fishing. Furthermore, municipalities frequently face more pressing environmental problems than climate change (though they might be interrelated) and therefore independently address environmental problems, climate change and sustainable development. To be effective however, climate change response strategies should be integrated with broader sustainable development efforts69. Thus in many developing countries where the day- to-day needs of people are scarcely being met, issues of sustainable development are but momentary and difficult to reconcile.

4.5 Sustainable development has become the common currency in environmental issues

In 1987 the concept of sustainable development was brought to life by the Brundtland Report, though the intellectual heritage lies in the 1972 UN Conference on Human Environment. Sustainable development has become the ‘common currency through which environmental issues are contested or constructed’70. Sustainable development addresses issues of social justice, ecological responsibility and economic development through the application of appropriate technology and using resources more efficiently. The meaning and implications of sustainable development is not a straightforward matter, but is a shifting compromise between economic, social and ecological objectives between the present and the future71.

What synergies are there between climate change responses and broader sustainable development planning? Many negative aspects of development contributing to global warming could be mitigated through sustainable human settlements; and through sustainable development planning, urban areas could adapt to the effects of climate

69 Munasinghe, M. & Swart, R. 2005. Primer on climate change and sustainable development: Facts, policy analysis and applications, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press ; Hardy, J.T. 2003. Climate change: Cause, effects and solutions. Chichester: John Wiley and Sons 70 Bukley & Betsill. 2005. Cities and climate change: Urban sustainability and global governace. Oxon: Routledge 71 Bukley & Betsill. 2005. Cities and climate change: Urban sustainability and global governace. Oxon: Routledge

change.

Land-use planning – with its influence on the location and density of development by determining the design of neighbourhoods, has a significant role to play in achieving sustainable cities. Annan72 suggests three straightforward land-use measures that could help urban areas adapt to climate change: (1) stricter limits should be placed on development in hazardous areas (fault zones; flood planes, hillsides prone to slippage); (2) building regulations should ensure resilient buildings and infrastructure that can maintain essential services when a natural hazard occurs; (3) environmentally sustainable land-use and development should be practised with respect to deforestation of hillsides and the protection of wetlands.

How developments are designed and planned will have a significant impact on future emissions of greenhouse gasses. Bulkeley and Betsill73 and Hardy74 suggest the following sustainable development measures to mitigate global warming: (1) compact cities, higher densities, mixed land-use developments, reducing the need to travel, a greater reliance on public transport, and integrating land-use and transport planning; and (2) policies to improve energy sufficiency of new housing, reduce the need to travel and promote renewable energy should be integrated into strategic planning policy.

5. THE URBAN PHENOMENON IN AFRICA AND SOUTH AFRICA

The importance of an urban focus for this research is evident. Africa is currently the least urbanised region in the world with little over 30 per cent of the continent’s population living in urban environment. At the same time, it is also the region in the world with the most rapid urbanisation rate.75 South Africa is somewhat different. More than 50 per cent of its population are currently resident in urban environments. A

72 Annan, K.A. 1999. Preventing War and Disaster: A Growing Global Challenge. New York: United Nations 73 Bukley & Betsill. 2005. Cities and climate change: Urban sustainability and global governace. Oxon: Routledge 74 Hardy, J.T. 2003. Climate change: Cause, effects and solutions. Chichester: John Wiley and Sons 75 RA Obudho, “Urbanization, housing and unemployment” in K Shillington (ed.), Encyclopedia of African history, III , (Fitzroy Dearborn, New York, London, 2005), pp. 1642-1644.

prime feature of South Africa’s urban environments is that almost in all respects it is a story of relatively recent origins. Unlike Europe, Northern Africa and Asia, the sprawling urban nodes of the early 21st century are the product of developments that followed in the wake of the discovery and exploitation of natural resources and especially minerals, such as copper, diamonds, gold and coal in many parts of the country.76 The effects of the industrial revolution, one of the major drivers of climate change since the eighteenth century in the United Kingdom and Western Europe, became apparent in South Africa by the start of the nineteenth century. In the wake of a growing need for wool produce for the factories of Britain, sheep farming became one of the major farming activities in the Cape Colony in the first half of the nineteenth century.77 Bustling coastal urban settlements, such as Cape Town, Port Elizabeth, East London and Durban, notable for their trading activities, formed an umbilical chord of communication between the South African interior and the overseas capital and industrial centres in Europe and North America.

The urban history of sub-Saharan Africa, and more specifically also that of Southern Africa goes back to pre-colonial times.78 It is only relatively recently that we have shed our Eurocentric perspectives and have come to the conclusion that there are many similarities between urbanisation and its processes in the Western world and Africa. Like Europe’s feudal centres, we know from archaeological records that settlements in Africa, such as Mapungubwe and later the Great Zimbabwe, flourished as a result of trade, commerce and specialised local industrial activities. Recent researches in archaeology have in fact enabled us to develop some form of historical footprint of drought conditions in African settlements after the introduction of maize,79 in the

76 CW de Kiewiet, A history of South Africa: social and economic, (Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1942), pp. 88-152; W Steenkamp, Land of the Thirst King, (Howard Timmins, Cape Town, 1975), pp. 37-49; W Beinart, Twentieth century South Africa, (Oxford University Press, Cape Town, Oxford, 1994), pp. 25-34. 77 W Beinhart, The rise of conservation in South Africa: settlers, livestock and the environment 1770-1950, (Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2003), pp. 1-27. 78 S Keech McIntosh, Urbanism in sub-Saharan Africa” in JO Vogel (ed.), Encyclopedia of precolonial Africa: archaeology, history, languages, cultures and environments, (Altamira Press, Walnut Creek, London and New Delhi, 1997), pp. 461-465; AJ Njoh, “African cities and regional trade in historical perspective: implications for contemporary globalisation trends” in Cities, 20(3), June 2006, pp. 18-29. 79 Maize is considered to have been introduced to Southern Africa as early as the 1500s. See B-E van Wyk and J Gericke, People’s plants: a guide to the useful plants of Southern Africa, Briza Publications, Pretoria, 2007), p. 16.

period after 1650.80 However, the wave of urban activity that hit Southern Africa by the nineteenth century had a marked and lasting effect on the cultural landscape. It even influenced the development of pre-mining urban settlements in South Africa. Small missionary settlements founded as of the late eighteenth century in the Cape Colony became small towns. These settlements increased as missionary activities spread into the interior of South Africa.81 Again proto-urbanisation coincided with local skills development82 and the transformation of African peoples’ lifestyles from indigenous African, to an African society affected in varying degrees by goods and services of industrialised societies in the northern hemisphere.83 Traders would locally start operations and in a short time colonial or republican authorities would establish a magistrate’s office and be instrumental in bringing municipal services to frontier towns situated on strategic routes between the interior and the bustling coastal ports of southern Africa.

As pastoral frontier people spread out and increasingly chose to settle permanently in the trans-Orange River region, later also the trans-Vaal River region, as well as the region that is today KwaZulu-Natal, the need for western-orientated forms of governance, led to state formation (the South African Republic, also known as the Transvaal, in 1852 and the Orange Free State Republic in 1854) and accompanying urban development under frontier conditions. The first shift from pastoral urban development in South Africa occurred with the founding of Kimberley (1871) at the time of the first diamond mining activities, gold mining at Pilgrims Rest (1873) and the discovery and subsequent gold mining revolution on the Witwatersrand in today’s Gauteng Province, where Johannesburg mushroomed on the Highveld as of 1886.

80 TN Huffman, “A cultural proxy of drought: ritual burning in the Iron Age of Southern Africa” in Journal of Archaeoloogical Science, 36(4), April 2009, pp. 991-1005. 81 G Menzel, Die Rheinische Mission: Aus 150 Jahren Missionsgeschichte, (Verlag der Vereinten Evangelischen Mission, Wuppertal, 1978), pp. 56-58. 82 For an example of this, see the discussion on the missionary FR Reuter and his work amongst the Balobedu in the late- nineteenth century W van der Merwe, “Die geskiedenis van die Berlynse sendigngenootskap in Transvaal, 1860-1900” in Argiefjaarboek vir Suid-Afrikaanse Geskiedenis, 46(1), Staatsdrukker, Pretoria, 1984), pp. 126-132. 83 JT du Bruyn, “Die aanvangsjare van die Christelike sending onder die Tlhaping, 1800-1825” in Argiefjaarboek vir Suid- Afrikaanse Geskiedenis, 52(2), Staatsdrukker, Pretoria, 1989), pp. 1-7; PH Kapp, “Dr John Philip die grondlegger van liberalism in Suid-Afrika” in Argiefjaarboek vir Suid-Afrikaanse Geskiedenis, 48(23), (Staatsdrukker, Pretoria, 1985), pp. 14-18

5.1 The origins and evolution of George and Upington

The urban history of George and Upington is steeped in their gradual development as centres of trade and commerce. Although they were founded at different points in time they shared their respective roles as urban centres for trade and local governance. The Drostdy and town of George were proclaimed on 23 April 1811. It was to become a major administrative centre in a large underdeveloped region of the southern Cape. The nearby missionary settlement of Pacaltsdorp, founded by the London Missionary Society in 1813, bolstered the local population and paved the way for relatively rapid industrial development – especially in terms of timber production. Upington, originally called Olijvenhoutsdrift and founded in 1871 as a mission settlement was renamed in 1884 in honour of the Cape Colonial prime minister Sir Thomas Upington (1844- 1898).84 Both urban centres were frontier towns that evolved into local municipalities before the end of the nineteenth century.

Upington has become famous for its average hot temperature and semi-arid climate, and the abundant water supplies from the Orange River passing through the town. George, on the other hand, is famous for its high rainfall and temperate climate throughout the year. It stands to reason that conditions of climate change are bound to affect George and Upington in different ways. Upington is expected to experience higher average temperatures than at present and the potential situation of a more erratic and possibly reduced water supply from the Orange River. Larger populations resident in urban centres and farming industrial settlements upstream would typically have a higher and more direct claim to the available water supplies. By contrast, George will experience drier and warmer climatic conditions, with a greater intensity of local storm conditions. A real prospect is that the region would become more like the Karoo, causing major changes in the local biodiversity85 as the figure below indicates.

84 PE Raper, South African place names,(Second edition [1987], Jonathan Ball, Cape Town and Johannesburg, 2004), p. 387. 85 State of the Environment - South Africa, Terrestrial Ecosystems: Impact Part 2, Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, 1999.

Map 3: Potential increase in aridity may lead to changes in the geographical distribution of biomes in the Northern Cape86

5.2 The geo-demographic characteristics of the George and //Khara Hais local municipalities87

5.2.1 George Local Municipality

The George Municipality is located halfway between Cape Town and Port Elizabeth in the Western Cape Province. The municipal area is 1 068 square kilometres in extent with a population of approximately 160 000 people. The municipal area includes the built-up urban areas of the City of George (including Pacaltsdorp and Thembalethu), the towns of Wilderness and Harold’s Bay, coastal resorts such as Victoria Bay,

86 State of the Environment - South Africa, Terrestrial Ecosystems: Impact Part 2, Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, 1999. 87 The profile for George local municipality was compiled from the following sources: George Local Municipality. 2005. George Local Economic Development Strategy: Background report on the local economy and its challenges.; George Local Municipality. 2007. Integrated Development Plan: 2007-2011.; George Local Municipality. 2007. Spatial Development Framework Vol III: Urban Structure Framework.; George Local Municipality. 2008. Spatial Development Framework Vol I: Main Report.; George Local Municipality. 2008. Spatial Development Framework Vol II: Strategic Environmental Assessment.; Eden Distict Municipality. 2006. Local Economic Development Fact Sheet: No 1.; ; Sources on //Khara Hais include the following: Khara Hais Local Municipality. 2007. Year Integrated Development Plan (IDP): 2007-2012.; Meyer,S. 2001. Omgewingsentrum as omgewingsbestuursinisiatief vir die Noord-Kaapprovinsie. Rand Afrikaans University. [Web:] http://etd.rau.ac.za/theses/available/etd0509200515715/restricted/Hoofstuk3'nOmgewingsentrumteUpington.pdf. [Date of access:] 25 November 2008. ; Siyanda District Municipality. 2007. 5 Year Integrated Development Plan (IDP): 2007/8 – 2011/12.; Siyanda District Municipality. 2008. Growth and Development Strategy; Engeneering News. 2006. Study finds that a cargo hub at Upington would boost Northern Cape economy. Jan. [Web:] http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/study-finds-that-a-cargo- hub-at-upington-would-boost-northern-cape-economy-2006-06-02. [Date of access:] 25 November 2008.; Eprop. 2008. Upington property demand could grow. Jan. [Web:] http://www.eprop.co.za/news/article.aspx?idArticle=9750. [Date of Access:] 25 November 2008.

Kleinkrantz and the Wilderness National Park and the rural areas of Wilderness Heights, Geelhoutboom, Herold and Waboomskraal. The rural areas include productive land for agriculture and forestry, and pristine natural areas such as national parks, indigenously vegetated areas, and unspoilt coastline. The town of George is situated between the Outeniqua Mountains and the Indian Ocean, though not directly on the coast, and is the seat of the Eden District Municipality.

Map 4: Location of the George Local Municipality within the Eden District Municipality in the Western Cape Province, South Africa88

George has a beautiful natural setting and many natural resources that form the basis of its tourism, agriculture and forestry industries. George has a well-functioning central business node, decentralised commercial nodes, one large industrial area bordered by the railway in the east and various residential areas. Future expansion of the town is limited by natural barriers such as the mountains and rivers. The topography in George in varied, dominated by a central coastal plateau, and bordered by the Outeniqua

88 Map obtained from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Western_Cape_Municipalities_showing_George.png. This image is published under the GNU Free Documentation Licence Version 1.2.

Mountains that reach 1600m above sea level. The coastline is rugged, as rivers have carved deep river gorges and valleys, the most prominent being the Kaaimans River Gorge.

Map 5: Eden District and Local Municipalities89

George is regarded as a second-tier city. Its annual population growth rate is higher than the average of the District or the Province at about 4 500 people per year. This could be ascribed to continued in-migration of retirees from the northern provinces and continued, but slightly lower, in-migration from the Eastern Cape. Simultaneously, George experiences a continued brain drain towards bigger urban centres. The number of households without any income has grown, and the economy is not able to absorb the new unskilled migrants. Unemployment and poverty are therefore major social issues in George.

The residential areas of George are separated on the grounds of race as well as income, determining the proximity to urban opportunities. The majority of the coloured population live in the southern part of the town in Pacaltsdorp and surrounding areas. The majority of African people live in the south-eastern part of the town in Thembalethu. The majority of the white population live in suburbs close to urban opportunities, and high-income people of all races live in exclusive coastal resorts and golf estates.

89 Eden District Municipality, State of the Environment Report: Phase 1 Report (Draft for PSC Comment), 2007, Arcus Gibb. p. 5.

5.2.2 //Khara Hais Local Municipality

//Khara Hais Municipality is centrally situated in the Northern Cape Province. The Province is bordered by Namibia in the north, Botswana in the northeast, and in the west by the Atlantic Ocean. It is by far the largest province in South Africa making up a third of the country’s land area, but having the smallest population and therefore very low densities. It also has the smallest economy in the country.

Map 6: National location of the //Khara Hais Local Municipality90

//Khara Hais includes the ribbon-shaped town of Upington, extensive stock farms as well as a narrow intensive agricultural strip on both sides of the Orange River with various small settlements about 15 to 20 kilometres apart. The inhabitants of these settlements are mainly reliant upon agricultural activities for their daily living. It is a semi-desert area, known for its extreme climate conditions and low humidity.

Upington is the seat of the Siyanda District Municipality. The city has a regional

90 //Khara Hais Spatial Development Framework: Volume 1, September 2008. Stellenbosch: Dennis Moss Partnership.

influence serving as the departure point for many tourists into the region. It is equal distances from Johannesburg and Cape Town.

The number of households earning an income in the District has increased slightly in the last five years, but the income distribution remains very skewed. Only 25% of the population in //Khara Hais is economically active. Socio-economic pressures like poverty, poor skills, unemployment, and HIV/AIDS, add further to the development constraints.

5.3 The economic characteristics of the two municipal areas

5.3.1 George Local Municipality

George is rated as one of the secondary core regions in the national spatial system, making it one of the top twelve urban nodes in the country that collectively contribute 63% of the nation’s GDP. The George economy is well balanced and diversified and is rooted in the agriculture, manufacturing, tourism, trade and business sectors, whereas tourism is becoming more important and agriculture less so. As the business and economic hub of the Southern Cape, George has considerable growth prospects, which strongly relate to the natural resource endowment of the municipal area.

The George economy has been based on forestry and agriculture with its abundance in timber, fairly good soils and a comparatively high rainfall. Over time commercial forests were established on large areas cleared of natural vegetation or where soils were unsuitable for more commercial crop production. This has resulted in an almost complete transformation of the natural environment surrounding George and the reduction of natural forest to protect areas or steep slopes of river gorges. Agriculture is a major land use in the municipal area outside the town of George, covering a large percentage of its land, particularly west of the town. The forestry and agriculture sector experience a number of challenges, such as the pressure for urban expansion onto the scarce, high potential remaining farm land; providing housing for people in rural areas – especially pensioners; the provision of land for small farmers; demand for land for

smallholdings for residential purposes; and an increase in the demand for water.

Industry, comprising of food-processing, wood, non-metallic minerals and furniture sectors as well as construction, has contributed to the growth of George and is expected to continue to do so. The tourism sector is growing and plays a considerable role in the economy of George, both as a tourist destination in its own right and as a service centre to tourists travelling through the South Cape.

5.3.2 //Khara Hais Local Municipality

Important economic activities in the Siyanda District where //Khara Hais is located are agriculture, mining and tourism. The economy remains rooted in the primary sector as the manufacturing sector remains stagnant.

Mining has been a critical sector in the Province’s economy. In 2003 the Northern Cape contributed R 10.8 billion (7,8%) to the total mineral sales nationally. Sales of iron ore, manganese ore, base metal concentrates and uncut diamonds accounted for most of these sales. However the products are mostly exported unbeneficiated or as partly processed primary materials. A cargo hub is planned at the Upington Airport which could result in opportunities for agricultural beneficiation, tourism and new mining ventures in the Tsantsabane and Kgalagadi areas that will stimulate the economy of the District.

Agricultural activities in the area include intensive farming on the banks of the Orange River by a number of small farmers. Specific challenges are high capital costs, expensive seed prices, use of insecticides, need for fertiliser, expensive equipment, and pressure to harvest twice per year. Often fertile land on the floodplains is used injudicious, and farmers built dams and levees in times of flooding. This has caused brackish land, expensive rehabilitation of land, deteriorating water quality, and pests and weeds. Furthermore, extensive cattle farming make use of ground water resources, which are often over-exploited. Farmers often have too many cattle per hectare beyond the carrying capacity of the land. The results of this are alien invader plant species,

overgrazing, decrease in carrying capacity of the land, decrease in bio-diversity and erosion.

The Northern Cape is a unique part of South Africa with exceptional natural and cultural attributes. Important tourist attractions are the Augrabies National Park, Kgalgadi National Transfrontier Park, Mier-relocation community at Rietfontein, grape farmers, Kanoneiland irrigation area, Benede Oranje irrigation area, Kakamas, Riemvasmaak, Witsand and the Spitskoppe. There are furthermore numerous hiking trails, 4x4 routes, river adventures, camel rides, and hunting. The Province has the potential to become a preferred adventure and eco-tourism destination in South Africa, thereby contributing to economic growth and the preservation of the natural and cultural heritage. The Province has, however, not capitalized on its full potential as a tourism destination and lies largely undiscovered to both the sizeable domestic and high-yield international markets. Negative aspects of tourism are pollution (land and water), veld fires, destruction of the unique fauna and flora and therefore the biodiversity, damage to ecosystems, deterioration of gravel roads, erosion, and high costs to maintain and repair the damage.

6. ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES ON THE GEORGE AND//KHARA HAIS ENVIRONMENTS91

6.1 George Local Municipality

George has a temperate, coastal climate with hot, humid summers and cool, rainy winters, though it receives rain throughout the year (higher rainfall in March-April and September-October). The average annual rainfall varies from 866 mm per annum in George to more than 1200 mm per annum in the Outeniqua Mountains. Snowfall in the mountains is not common, but mist near the top of the Outeniqua Pass is a common phenomenon. Average temperatures are 25oC in summer and 13oC in winter. Prevailing winds come from the west and northwest during the winter months and from southeast and southwest during the summer months.

George has diverse vegetation given the temperate climate, the Outeniqua Mountains and the Indian Ocean. Vegetation within George forms an important part of the Cape Floral Kingdom – one of the richest floras in the world. A few of the species are threatened and therefore biodiversity conservation is critical in the region. This already happens in the Wilderness National Park and the Garden Route Initiative (GRI) to establish a consolidated mega-park along the Garden Route.

Water consumption in George has increased to the extent that the demand for water by forestry, agriculture, urban uses, and rural industries exceeds the available assured yield from the Garden Route Dam and whenever drought conditions occur water restrictions will have to be applied.

91 The profile for George local municipality was compiled from the following sources: George Local Municipality. 2005. George Local Economic Development Strategy: Background report on the local economy and its challenges.; George Local Municipality. 2007. Integrated Development Plan: 2007-2011.; George Local Municipality. 2007. Spatial Development Framework Vol III: Urban Structure Framework.; George Local Municipality. 2008. Spatial Development Framework Vol I: Main Report.; George Local Municipality. 2008. Spatial Development Framework Vol II: Strategic Environmental Assessment.; Eden Distict Municipality. 2006. Local Economic Development Fact Sheet: No 1.; ; Sources on //Khara Hais include the following: Khara Hais Local Municipality. 2007. Year Integrated Development Plan (IDP): 2007-2012.; Meyer,S. 2001. Omgewingsentrum as omgewingsbestuursinisiatief vir die Noord-Kaapprovinsie. Rand Afrikaans University. [Web:] http://etd.rau.ac.za/theses/available/etd0509200515715/restricted/Hoofstuk3'nOmgewingsentrumteUpington.pdf. [Date of access:] 25 November 2008. ; Siyanda District Municipality. 2007. 5 Year Integrated Development Plan (IDP): 2007/8 – 2011/12.; Siyanda District Municipality. 2008. Growth and Development Strategy

The biophysical environment is furthermore threatened by the reduction in water quality and quantity, pollution and eutrophication from agricultural and other human activities, the encroachment from urban settlements, and the introduction of invasive alien species. A lot of urban development has taken place along the coastal zone, resulting in increased pollution through sewage and effluents that are released into the marine environment. Economic, industrial, commercial and tourist activities negatively impacts the environment by changes in land-use; construction activities that lead to building materials such as sand and cement entering the lakes or estuaries; and the increased production and release of wastes. Tourism has also increased the number of recreational activities taking place on the estuaries and the coastline, such as boating, jet skiing, fishing, swimming and diving, requiring the construction of marinas and jetties in the estuaries that place increasing pressure on the resources in the coastal zone. Poor land management, such as removing vegetation cover on slopes prone to flooding, leads to soil erosion by stormwater. The resulting increased siltation of water bodies poses a threat to the estuaries in George.

6.2 //Khara Hais Local Municipality

//Khara Hais has a typical continental climate with extreme high temperatures and thunderstorms during summer. The average rainfall is between 150 to 200mm per annum, and occurs mostly during early spring, late summer and early autumn, with low mid-summer rainfall levels. The average rainfall for Upington is 184mm per annum. Summer temperatures range from 18oC to extremes of up to 43oC. Winter temperatures are moderate and range between below 0oC and 20oC. The high temperatures lead to a high evaporation of surface water at 3 400 mm annually. Warm northern winds occur between August and December and can evolve into dust storms. The area often experiences droughts.

The vegetation is quite varied ranging from Karoo drought resisted species to Bushveld in the north. The area forms part of the Bushmanland that is underlain by granitic and metamorphic layers. These layers lead to inselbergs (isolated koppies) which appear

above the sandy topsoil. Vegetation is mainly grassland with Karoo thorn bushes that is hardy and offers good grazing for sheep. The carrying capacity of the fields is very low.

//Khara Hais local municipality is threatened by prolonged droughts, classified as a creeping disaster, whereas George local municipality is plagued by sudden flash floods and other severe weather events. The semi-dessert climate makes //Khara Hais very vulnerable in terms of its vegetation, economic activities and ecosystems. The low rainfall and the type of rainfall increase the sensitivity of the area, resulting in erosion, instability in the vegetation and a decrease in the biodiversity. The Orange River is the most important natural feature in the municipality, and impacts on the economy, agriculture, urban development, tourism, and the fauna and flora. The water quality has systematically degraded because of increasing agricultural and industrial activities upstream from Upington, as well as the reduction of high quality inflow from Lesotho.

The watertable is very low and often brackish in most parts of the District due to high levels of evaporation, except close to the Orange River. This limits agricultural and urban development in the District. The flow of the Orange River is largely controlled by the release of the Bloemhof, Gariep and Van der Kloof dams upstream.

6.3 Temperature changes in the Upington and George regions

In order to establish a valid argument for climate change in the two areas under investigation, historical climatic data was used in order to determine whether there are scientific grounds supporting the notion of an increase in temperature. The temperature and rainfall information for the two regions were obtained from the South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) for the period of January 1951 up to August 2008. The data prior to 1951 is not complete and cannot be included in the report.

Various analyses were performed on the data and the only meaningful deduction that could be made was that both the minimum and maximum temperatures from George and Upington increased during the past years (approximately 1.5 up to 2 degrees Celsius over the total period). This can clearly be seen on the two graphs below. Also

looking at the specific seasons of the mentioned towns, one can observe that the pattern is repeating itself – an increase in the minimum and maximum temperatures. The rainfall, in both cases, stayed constant if one considers the rainfall over the total period. However, small deviation can be observed when one considers a specific period of rainfall.

George

20 Max-Temp 15 Min_Temp Rainfall Linear (Min_Temp) 10 Linear (Max-Temp) Linear (Rainfall) 5

1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 Years

Figure 3: Temperature and rainfall deviations for George (1951-2008)92

92 It is not the intention of this report to use the above data as a justification for climate change occurring. The authors accept the notion that much larger data sets over a much longer period would be needed for such analysis.

Upington

35 30 Max_Temp 25 Min_Temp 20 Rainfall 15 Linear (Max_Temp) 10 Linear (Min_Temp) 5 Linear (Rainfall) 0

1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 Years

Figure 4: Temperature and rainfall deviations for Upington (1951-2008)93

An investigation into the correlation between temperature and rainfall indicated that there is no correlation between the two variables.

6.4 Rainfall changes in the Upington and George regions

Research conducted by Engelbrecht and Engelbrecht et al94 on the regional projections relating to rainfall utilising the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) model, indicate that the George area can expect to become dryer. This is due to a projected southerly movement of cold fronts which brings winter rains to the south and southwestern Cape. This southerly movement might be caused in the future by the strengthening of sub-tropical high-pressure belts over South Africa in the winter95.

93 It is not the intention of this report to use the above data as a justification for climate change occurring. The authors accept the notion that much larger data sets over a much longer period would be needed for such analysis. 94 FA Engelbrecht, “Simulations of Climate and Climate Change over Southern and Tropical Africa with the Conformal- Cubic Atmospheric Model;, 2005, In Schulze, R.E. (Ed) Climate Change and Water Resources in Southern Africa: Studies on Scenarios, Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation. Water Research Commission, Pretoria, RSA, WRC Report 1430/1/05. Chapter 4, 57-74.; FA Engelbrecht, JL McGregor and CJ Engelbrecht, “Dynamics of the Conformal-cubic atmospheric model projected climate- change signal over southern Africa”, 2008, Int. J. Climatol. DOI:10.1002/joc.1742. 95 FA Engelbrecht, JL McGregor and CJ Engelbrecht, “Dynamics of the Conformal-cubic atmospheric model projected climate-change signal over southern Africa”, 2008, Int. J. Climatol. DOI:10.1002/joc.1742.

Map 7: Projected changed in yearly rainfall total (percentage) for South Africa (2070-2100)96

According to the research of Engelbrecht97, Upington can be expected to become even dryer. This can be ascribed to the absence of rain cloud belts which normally brings rain to this region in the later summer. These cloud belts will be less frequent due to the increase in mid-level high-pressure systems and their subsidence over southern Africa98.

96 Map 4 indicates the projected change in rainfall expressed as a percentage for 2070-2100 relative to 1975-2000. This projection was done according to the A2 SRES scenario as explained in Engelbrecht et al. This therefore means that Co2 concentration levels doubled in the simulation to that indicated for 2050. 97 FA Engelbrecht, JL McGregor and CJ Engelbrecht, “Dynamics of the Conformal-cubic atmospheric model projected climate-change signal over southern Africa”, 2008, Int. J. Climatol. DOI:10.1002/joc.1742. 98 FA Engelbrecht, JL McGregor and CJ Engelbrecht, “Dynamics of the Conformal-cubic atmospheric model projected climate-change signal over southern Africa”, 2008, Int. J. Climatol. DOI:10.1002/joc.1742.

7. INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE

There is wide scientific recognition that the challenges we face in terms of climate change, sustainable development and disaster risk must be addressed in an integrated manner99. Within South African local government this integration must be obtained through the medium to long-term development planning of municipalities100. In order to understand the dynamics and various disciplinary interrelatedness of climate change one must also consider the disaster risk potential which climate change and variation poses. Disaster risk management, like climate change, has become the proverbial prodigal son of South African local government. Although the need for disaster risk management structures and capacity is called for in both policy101 and legislation102, it remains an underfunded and even ignored function103. Similarly, the research has found that most government does not see climate change mitigation and adaptation as their responsibility.

The Land-Use Management Bill that is to replace the Development Facilitation Act (Act No. 67 of 1995) is yet to be approved by Government. Though urban and regional planning-related legislation has little to say about disaster risk reduction, sustainable development is addressed throughout. The National Disaster Management Act (No. 57 of 2002) and the National Disaster Management Framework (2005) on the other hand do not specifically address sustainable development, but do give priority to developmental measures such as basic public works, effective municipal services and

99 N Brooks., “Vulnerability, risk and adaptation: A conceptual Framework”, 2003, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment (CSERGE), School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia. Sep. Tyndall Centre Working Paper No. 38. Pp 17; J Dayton-Johnson, Natural disasters and adaptive, 2004, OECD Development Centre. Aug. Working Paper No. 237. Pp 46. Institute for Climate Change, 2006, Reducing disaster risk while adapting to climate change. Institute for climate change. LCA Discussion Background Paper 2. Pp 8.; L Schipper & M Pelling, Disaster risk, climate change and international development: scope for, and challenges to, integration, 2006, Overseas Development Institute. Disasters, 30(1):19-38. 100 D van Niekerk, “Disaster Risk Management in South Africa: The function and the activity – towards an integrated approach.” 2006, Politeia. 25. 2. 101 South Africa (Republic), National Disaster Management Framework., 2005, Pretoria: Government Printer. 102 South Africa (Republic), Disaster Management Act No. 57 of 2002, Pretoria: Government Printer; South Africa (Republic), Municipal Systems Act No. 32 of 2000, Pretoria: Government Printer. 103 VNOA: Interview with R Snyders, Head of Siyanda District Municipality Disaster Management, 2008.25.08.

effective spatial planning to reduce the vulnerability of disaster-prone areas, communities and households. An examination of legislation and policies104 yields the following results:

The Disaster Management Act and Framework stipulate the following with regards to development planning in local governments in South Africa:

Local disaster management centres must assess the vulnerabilities of communities and households to disasters that may occur. They must prevent or reduce the risk of disaster by the integration of prevention and mitigation methodologies within development plans, programmes and initiatives. They must also manage high risk developments105;

Disaster management plans must form an integral part of municipal integrated development processes and plans, and anticipate the types of disasters that are likely to occur106;

Spatial development frameworks should reflect and monitor hazard and vulnerability factors and ensure relevant spatial information informs disaster risk reduction planning107;

Relevant organs of state must execute systematic disaster risk assessments as an integral part of the planning phase for large-scale housing, infrastructure or commercial and industrial development. They must ensure that development initiatives maximise their vulnerability reduction outcomes of disaster-prone areas, communities and households108;

Municipalities should involve local communities in developing disaster risk profiles, prioritising projects aimed at disaster risk reduction and facilitate community participation in training and awareness programmes109; and

The Framework encourages the integration of disaster risk management training, education and research with other disciplines, and specifically development

104 Development Facilitation Act (No. 67 of 1995); Local Government Transition Act Second Amendment Act (No. 97 of 1996); White Paper on Local Government, 1998; National Environmental Management Act (No. 107 of 1998); Local Government Municipal Structures Act (No. 117 of 1998); Green Paper on Development and Planning, 1999; Local Government Municipal Systems Act (No. 32 of 2000); White Paper on Spatial Planning, Land Use Management and Land Development, 2001; Disaster Management Act (No. 57 of 2002); Breaking New Ground, 2004; Disaster Management Framework, 2005; National Spatial Development Perspective, 2006; Land Use Management Bill, 2007 105 South Africa (Republic), Disaster Management Act No. 57 of 2002, Pretoria: Government Printer 106 South Africa (Republic), Disaster Management Act No. 57 of 2002, Pretoria: Government Printer; South Africa (Republic), National Disaster Management Framework., 2005, Pretoria: Government Printer 107 South Africa (Republic), National Disaster Management Framework., 2005, Pretoria: Government Printer 108 South Africa (Republic), National Disaster Management Framework., 2005, Pretoria: Government Printer 109 South Africa (Republic), National Disaster Management Framework., 2005, Pretoria: Government Printer

planning110.

Other pieces of legislation that addresses disaster prevention include:

The White Paper on Local Government111 says the most about planning for disaster risk reduction. It states that: ‘Each municipality should proactively plan for the prevention and management of disasters. Municipalities should, through their planning and implementation processes, seek to minimise the vulnerability of communities and protect people who are at risk. The direct involvement of communities in planning and implementation is the most effective way to identify the possible hazards and risks faced by communities, and build a culture of risk reduction. Disaster prevention and preparedness should be an integral part of development policy.’

Under the principle of sustainability, the White Paper on Wise Land Use Management112 states that: ‘Land development and planning processes must integrate disaster prevention, management or mitigation measures’. The Land Use Management Bill113 plays it down to: ‘In order to ensure the sustainable management and use of the resources making up the natural and built environment, land development and land use management legislation, programmes, policies and other measures must seek to take into account disaster and risk management’.

The Municipal Systems Act114 states that the core components of integrated development plans ‘must reflect applicable disaster management plans’. (Accordingly, funds allocated to disaster risk management planning are part of the funds allocated to IDP processes.)

Disaster risk reduction is not mentioned in the National Spatial Development Perspective of 2006 or the National Environmental Management Act115. It therefore seems that disaster risk reduction is one of the most underestimated issues in urban development.

110 South Africa (Republic), National Disaster Management Framework., 2005, Pretoria: Government Printer 111 Department of Provincial and Local Government 1998, Section C 112 Department for Agriculture and Land Affairs 2001 113 Department for Agriculture and Land Affairs 2007 114 Municipal Systems Act No. 32 of 2000 115 National Environmental Management Act No 107 of 1998

8. RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN GEORGE AND //KHARA HAIS LOCAL MUNICIPALITIES

In both the Upington (Siyanda District Municipality) and George (Eden District Municipality) regions disaster management structures has been established. There is, however, a striking difference in terms of resources and capacities within the two municipalities. The disaster management component of the Siyanda District Municipality is woefully understaffed and under resourced116. In comparison, the Eden District Municipality has a more adequate Disaster Management Centre with much more personnel and resources. This, however, was not the case in 2004 when the disaster management function of Eden District Municipality was in a similar situation as the Siyanda District currently. One of the major factors which contributed to the expansion of the Eden District Municipality Disaster Management Centre was the recurrent occurrence of cut-off lows and the resulting floods causing millions of Rands worth of damage. These floods are now widely linked to climate change117.

The research showed that in both instances the Disaster Management Centres and personnel have a clear and informed understanding of climate change and variation and its possible impact on the two regions. Snyders118 indicated that there is an acute awareness of the changing climate in the Upington area. This she ascribes to the harsh climate of the region. She is of the opinion that residents of Upington can physically feel any slight change in the climate, especially temperature fluctuations in summer time.

It is evident that in the George area, issues of climate change enjoy much more formal and heightened attention. In February 2009 the Eden District Municipality hosted a climate change conference119. The main aims of the conference were:

116 VNOA: Interview with R Snyders, Head of Siyanda District Municipality Disaster Management, 2008.25.08. 117 Eden District Municipality, “Report to the executive mayoral committee on an overview as well as preliminary damage assessment regarding the floods in the Eden district municipal area during the period:21 Nov-27Nov 2007”, 2007, Dec. Pp.14.

118 VNOA: Interview with R Snyders, Head of Siyanda District Municipality Disaster Management, 2008.25.08. 119 Eden District Municipality, The impact of climate change on coastline & little Karoo living, Diaz Strand Hotel & Resort,

Attention to green buildings policy; Focus on recycle programmes;

Renewable energy program for Eden; Implementation of coastal management programmes;

Determine floodplains for rivers to inform spatial development frameworks and plans in municipalities;

Alien vegetation eradication program to improve water quantity and quality;

Wetlands rehabilitation programmes;

Improved sustainable agricultural practices; Understanding of urban development best practice;

Promotion of conducive tourism and recreational practices;

Promotion of clean industries; Implementation of pro-active deforestation measures;

Improved partnerships with global stakeholders; Understanding and addressing the challenges of population growth;

Environmental education program in schools; Pro-active public awareness programmes with emphasis on social – well being;

Compiling of a framework whereby parameters are set and amended to mitigate the impact of climate change in the areas in question – coastal regions and the little Karoo;

Setting up of public – private partnerships to address impacts; Attention to comprehensive storm water master planning and implementation;

The broadening of capacity to revitalise wetlands as natural buffering systems against possible extreme weather conditions;

The setting of a more environmentally friendly Spatial Development Framework for the districts in question whereby the long-term effect of developments are taken into account as well as the vision for the development inside Eden after the year 2030;

Carbon sequestration Plan; Economic / Business initiatives to reduce carbon footprints;

Compilation of an Eden Climate Change Adaptation Plan and implementation;

Southern Cape, Mossel Bay, 2 – 4 February 2009.

Green labelling and auditing of best practice;

Revising Low Cost Housing norms and standards to make previously disadvantaged less vulnerable to the effects of climate change; Biodiversity Monitoring Programme on trends of changing climate on both the terrestrial and aquatic biospheres, to feed into international database; and

Implementation of clear plan of action to include all role-players via a climate change charter.

8.1 Observed nature of climate change in the areas under investigation

8.1.1 //Khara Hais and its immediate environment

The Head of Disaster Management in //Khara Hais, James de Monk120, has been living in Upington for ten years and believes that the weather has changed quite dramatically in the course of the last three years. These sentiments were echoed by the Head of Disaster Management for the Siyanda District Municipality, Rynaldene Snyders121. In Upington they are experiencing heavy rainfall, strong wind gusts and even hail unlike before, wiping out huts and informal housing in a specific part of town. De Monk observes that it has become wetter in //Khara Hais, with rainfall from September to May, which is very unusual for this part of the country. It is a trend he expects to continue. The weather is also getting more unpredictable122, which makes it very difficult for the agricultural sector in this area to plan their harvests123.

Many people agree with De Monk. Neels Heydenrich124, realtor and developer, adds that it seems as if the seasons have moved on, i.e. that summer comes later in the year,

120 FOA: James de Monk, 2008.12.01 121 VNOA: Interview with R Snyders, Head of Siyanda District Municipality Disaster Management, 2008.25.08. 122 VNOA: Interview Mr. Lategan, Manager: Corporate Serivices: Siyanda District Municipality, Upington, 2008.08.25; VNOA: Interview Gerhard Lottering, Roads: Siyanda District Municipality, 2008.08.25. 123 VNOA: Interview Kobus Lategan, Department of Agriculture, Upington, 2008.08.26. 124 FOA: Neels Heydenrich, 2008.11.30

and that the weather has become more extreme. Len Fourie125, an urban planning consultant who has been living in Upington for the past 34 years, is quite specific about the climatic changes: Upington used to receive rain from October to November, followed by a dry period to the end of January and then they had some more rain. Fourie now notices that a dry spell in the early summer follows the rains in spring, and erratic, heavy precipitation fall during December and January when it used to be dry. Other changes in the climate include more humid days per year, heavy hailstorms two to three times per season, and sand dunes in the surrounding areas that are overgrown by vegetation while they used to have none.

According to Francois Fouchè126, head of Santam in Upington, the weather has become more irregular and unpredictable. Insurance claims are therefore also very irregular. During the past two years businesses and farmers – especially wine farmers – have had huge losses and damage due to hailstorms. In 2007 Santam had to pay out 211% of their income in insurance premiums due to one hailstorm in the area. However, in the two years preceding 2006, they only had to pay out 8% and 6% of their income. In 2008 it was 33%127.

Itumeleng Thatelo128, IDP Manager of the Siyanda District Council, agrees that the climate is changing, but his observation is that it is getting warmer and dryer. He is concerned about the Orange River drying up and what the implications will be if the temperature keeps rising. As the economy of the district is based on agriculture, Thatelo fears that many people might lose their jobs due to climate change, with many negative direct and indirect consequences for the district.

Conrad Geldenhuys, the Head of Urban Planning at the //Khara Hais Municipality, and Jeremy du Plessis129, also a planner at the Municipality, are not denying global

125 FOA: Len Fourie, 2008.12.01 126 FOA: Francois Fouchè, 2008.12.02 127 FOA: Francois Fouchè, 2008.12.02 128 FOA: Itumeleng Thatelo, 2008.12.02 129 FOA: Conrad Geldenhuys & Jeremy du Plessis, 2008.12.01

warming, but argue that not all the disasters could be ascribed to global warming. A longer-term perspective is necessary on the weather phenomena, as it is not the first time in the town’s history that they are experiencing severe weather events – most recently severe droughts. In their opinion, the roofs of houses are blown away because of substandard building material and construction practices, compared to houses built 30 years ago that are still standing, and not necessarily because of changes in the climate. Other people130 also ascribe the vulnerability of Upington during severe weather events to poor construction materials, roads that are not tarred and inadequate provision for storm water – especially in the former township areas.

There are also sceptics that climate change could be ascribed to global warming, e.g. the representatives131 of the Chamber of Commerce strongly feel that these are just cycles in the climate, and that nature has the ability to adapt to human activities. Snyders132 indicted that from the Siyanda District Municipality’s side, no policies or directives in place to deal with climate change. The respondent indicated that most of the government officials are aware of the phenomenon of climate change (as indicated above), but would only talk about it in passing conversations. There is no formal focus on climate change and this is largely ascribed to the attitudes of the people (“traak my nie agtig” English translation: “could not care less”). Most of the officials are also urban dwellers and this can also contribute towards their lack of perception of the realities of climate change.

8.1.2 George and its immediate environment

Henry Hill133, manager of environment and property at the Eden District Council, has made climate change his personal mission. Though one district, he distinguishes between the Klein-Karoo behind the Outeniqua Mountains where they are experiencing prolonged droughts, and the area between the mountains and the sea that is prone to

130 FOA: James de Monk, 2008.12.01; Len Fourie, 2008.12.01; Conrad Geldenhuys & Jeremy du Plessis, 2008.12.01 131 FOA: Lesley & John Nugent, 2008.12.01 132 VNOA: Interview with R Snyders, Head of Siyanda District Municipality Disaster Management, 2008.25.08. 133 FOA: Henry Hill, 2008.12.04

frequent floods. This study concentrates on the latter.

Willem de Kock134, an urban planner in George, is quite certain that what they are experiencing is severe climate change. The standard joke of George being Cold-And- Wet (“CAW” are the letters on the motorcar license plate for George) does not seem as appropriate anymore135. George is often dry – especially during the winter months when it is supposed to rain, to the extent that they experience ‘green droughts’ (on the surface it looks green, but there is a lack of water). When is does rain, it is often torrential, resulting in flash floods at times when it is not supposed to rain136.

Dawie de Villiers137 from the Western Cape Provincial Department of Land Care in George is of the opinion that the average rainfall is still the same, but that they are experiencing longer periods of drought, and shorter periods of intense rainfall. They now have to deal yearly with flooding, while it used to be once every four years. River- mouths and coastal towns in the district have therefore become very vulnerable. De Villiers acknowledges that nature has cycles, and that some extra run-off might be ascribed to more built-up areas in the catchment area, but he believes there must be a correlation between the GHG emissions and global warming causing these extreme effects.

Stiaan Carstens138, chief town planner in the George Local Municipality, sees climate change as cyclical, but is convinced that human activities contribute to global warming. He has observed that the rain is more sporadic and out of season; in Wilderness the sea used to be far from the houses (see photograph below), now it is quite close and the dunes are being eaten away; and they are experiencing extreme droughts (for this area) and periods of wetness, and often four seasons in one day with extreme

134 FOA: Willem de Kock, 2008.12.03 135 FOA: Colleen Till, 2008.12.04; Willem de Kock, 2008.12.03; Stiaan Carstens, 2008.12.04; Henry Hill, 2008.12.04; CMOA: Gerhard Otto, 2009.02.16

136 CMOA: Gerhard Otto, 2009.02.16; Hannes Muller, 2009.02.17; Lorrain McGibbon, 2009.02.17 137 FOA: Dawie de Villiers, 2008.12.03; CMOA: Hannes Muller, 2009.02.17 138 FOA: Stiaan Carstens, 2008.12.04; CMOA: Stiaan Caarstens, 2009.02.17

temperatures.

Picture 2: Coastal erosion in Wilderness

Hill139 ascribes the vulnerability of coastal areas to urban developments that should never have been allowed, as they have a destabilising effect on the environment. People have built too close to the sea and have removed vegetation that disrupted natural drainage systems, thereby concentrating run-off that becomes unstoppable. These practices are inflating the reaction of nature to heavy rains, resulting in heavy losses of property and infrastructure.

139 FOA: Henry Hill, 2008.12.04

8.2 Observed effects of climate change on the local economy and local government functions in the areas under investigation

8.2.1 //Khara Hais and its immediate environment

The last time the Orange River dried up was in 1965 before any of the dams higher up in the River were built. People are therefore not really concerned that the Orange River might dry up in future to cause a lack of water provision in the town of Upington. Fouchè140 is however very concerned about water management in South Africa in general, and about the management of the flow from the two upstream dams. He is also concerned that water in the Orange River may become so polluted by raw sewage, that it cannot be used for agricultural purposes anymore.

The economy of //Khara Hais is dependant on the agricultural sector. Land adjacent and close to the Orange River is utilised to grow grapes and dates. When the Orange River floods due to heavy rainfall in the Free State and Gauteng, farmers usually have a one to three day warning to remove pumps and other equipment from the River, and they have weirs to stop the water. But they often still sustain massive losses. If it rains more often during the required dry period in summer – as has been the case in the last number of years – then the grapes and dates can’t dry and the farmers incur huge losses. Land further away from the River is utilised for cattle and sheep farming. If it becomes drier, then they will have less grazing, and feeding is not a long-term option as it becomes too expensive141.

Thus a dry climate is beneficial for the wine, date and raisin industries, the international tourism industry that enjoys the wide, open expanse and hot, dry weather, as well as for the proposed racetrack to be built by a German company for testing cars. In comparison, if the weather were to become hotter and dryer, the cattle farmers will incur huge losses. A wetter climate would thus be beneficial to the cattle

140 FOA: Francois Fouchè, 2008.12.02 141 FOA: Neels Heydenrich, 2008.11.30; Francois Fouchè, 2008.12.02

farmers and the Namaqualand flower industry, but floods in the towns could cause a lot of damage and loss of life142.

Geldenhuys and Du Plessis143 explain that the storm water system in Upington cannot cope with extreme runoff as it was designed for average rainfall, but add that often the system gets blocked with debris and refuse during the winter months causing flooding during the first seasonal rains. Officials, residents and businesses are furthermore uninformed about climate change, and have not taken floods into account when planning the city or constructing houses and businesses. E.g. the ‘new’ shopping mall floods every time Upington experiences heavy rainfall.

Some people144 expect that Upington will see an inflow of migrants in future, though not everyone will be a climate change refugee. The poor and the unskilled are most vulnerable to economic and climatic changes. Some will flee farms and smaller towns where water has become very scarce, whereas others will be seeking employment opportunities that smaller towns in the district can no longer offer (which may be caused by climate change), or where farmers cannot afford the minimum wages anymore. Many will seek access to basic municipal services, schools and clinics, and security of tenure. This extra pressure on already overburdened resources means that the municipality would have to budget more for disasters in the future. And this in a time when the economy is slowing down – according to Heydenrich145 they have only sold 16 houses per month during 2008, compared to 40 in 2007.

Geldenhuys and Du Plessis146 are however not expecting any big population migrations. In their planning they make provision for housing, roads, community halls and municipal services in the smaller rural towns, so that a lack of these services and amenities should not become the reason people move to Upington. Their view is also

142 FOA: Lesley & John Nugent, 2008.12.01; Francois Fouchè, 2008.12.02 143 FOA: Conrad Geldenhuys & Jeremy du Plessis, 2008.12.01 144 FOA: James de Monk, 2008.12.01; Neels Heydenrich, 2008.11.30; Itumeleng Thatelo, 2008.12.02 145 FOA: Neels Heydenrich, 2008.11.30 146 FOA: Conrad Geldenhuys & Jeremy du Plessis, 2008.12.01

that climatic and economic cycles have less of an impact on communities in Upington than on communities in Gauteng that are highly globalised – therefore they expect fewer migrants.

8.2.2 George and its immediate environment

It seems that every successive flood in the Eden District increases in intensity147. The storms are more intense and heavy and the natural environment does not recover from the damage in time to face the next severe weather event148. The many ravines in the district contribute to channelling the strong run-off and flash floods after heavy downpours. This increased intensity in precipitation and resultant increase in run-off cause landslides due to saturated land, eroding of the riverbanks, and damage to irrigation infrastructure and pumps. Unlike in //Khara Hais, there is not an early flood warning system in George, as it is but ten kilometres from the watershed to the sea down numerous valleys and small rivers149.

Severe weather events could destroy a whole crop next to a river or in a floodplain. Many farmers cannot afford to insure their pumps and irrigation systems against floods, though the Department of Agriculture assist them with relief schemes the funds can not cover the whole amount of the equipments damaged and would rather take the risk but often loose all their equipment in a storm. Farmers may not be able to plough or harvest because of the wet weather, or they may be cut-off from the rest of the world if the roads and bridges are washed away – in which cases their harvests rot on the fields, or the milk in its containers. But they may also experience ‘green droughts’ when the land looks green, but it has become too dry for agriculture150, though they are able to compensate by using vegetable tunnels and shade netting.

Organised agriculture complained that input costs have increased, whereas the

147 CMOA: Gerhard Otto, 2009.02.16; Hannes Muller, 2009.02.17 148 CMOA: Hannes Muller, 2009.02.17 149 FOA: Henry Hill, 2008.12.04; Stiaan Carstens, 2008.12.04; Dawie de Villiers, 2008.12.03 150 FOA: Willem de Kock, 2008.12.03; Dawie de Villiers, 2008.12.03

capacity of the soil has decreased, making it more difficult to earn a living. In the late 1990s, farmers started to change their farming practices to adjust to the changing rainfall patterns and higher input costs due to the depletion of the land. The result was less cultivation of vegetables and more grazing for cattle on milk farms. This was a positive development, as grazing fields are more resistant to flooding than ploughed fields, though cattle might trample the grazing during heavy rain, or the terraces might crumble if flooded. Farmers in the Karoo are also adjusting their crops as rye and oats cannot be cultivated anymore. More drought-resistant crops such as olives and grapes are being planted. Even ostrich farms need to adjust, as the ostriches are trampling the little vegetation that is left which has no prospect of recovering151.

Still, if nothing is done to mitigate climate change, the long-term implications are a loss in fertile agricultural land next to rivers where the most intensive activities take place; and big financial losses when infrastructure is swept away or destroyed152.

George is well-located within the District and on the Garden Route. It is a services centre for the local, district and provincial governments as well as Sanlam and Old Mutual. It is also fortunate to be 200m above sea level and well connected to the national road system. But during the severe weather events in 2006 George not only cut-off from Wildernesss when the Kaaimans Bridge on the N2 partly gave way, but also completely from the east and from other inland areas due to rockslides on the Outeniqua and Robertson’s passes. Many people could not come to work for month because of the Kaaimans Bridge. The water main which supplies Wilderness from George which runs alongside the rail track, was also damaged, cutting off the water supply to Wilderness.

Other towns were cut-off from their water supply – resulting in water shortages during a flood. The coastline also limited access to towns in the area. During recent storms and flooding the storm water pipes in Glentana burst; the sea level rose as combined spring-tide and inland run-off flooded streets and houses in Wilderness and Harold’s

151 FOA: Henry Hill, 2008.12.04; Dawie de Villiers, 2008.12.03; Willem de Kock, 2008.12.03 152 FOA: Dawie de Villiers, 2008.12.03

Bay; and the sand dunes in Wilderness are being washed away. It is even expected that the value of properties right on the beach will decrease in future153.

The most vulnerable people to climate change are farming and poor communties who often settle on floodplains or hillsides. Many people come to Eden District from the Eastern Cape in search of job opportunities and as the health services and education are supposedly much better in the Western Cape. This migration create huge challenges for the District in terms of employment, housing, basic municipal services, schooling and health provision. There is a long waiting list for formal housing (with a backlog of 15 000 units being built at a tempo of 1 000 units per year), and many people are therefore living in informal housing on precarious sites. People living in vulnerable areas are asked to move by the Council, but they often refuse as they are close to job opportunities or they might have grown up in the area and want to be close to family and friends. Ward meetings often end up becoming housing meetings, and disaster risk reductions measures are therefore not discussed154.

George is also a safe-haven for many people from other parts of the country. People flee crime in Gauteng and relocate to George, many people own holiday homes in the district, others flee the droughts in the Karoo, and many people retire in George. George LM is also the hub of the Garden Route, having an airport close-by and offering many tourists services in the town of George. But the Chamber of Commerce155 fears for the tourist industry. Many tourists come to Glentana, Victoria Bay and Harold’s Bay, but they pack up and go home or will go to other parts of the country if it rains heavily during the holiday seasons in successive years (as has happened the past three years). This will have a huge impact on businesses in the tourist industry156. Events such as the IRB Seven’s Rugby might also relocate to an area where the weather is more predictable. If the ‘Garden Route’ becomes dryer, will it still be a garden route? And if

153 FOA: Dawie de Villiers, 2008.12.03; Willem de Kock, 2008.12.03; Colleen Till, 2008.12.04; Stiaan Carstens, 2008.12.04 154 FOA: Dr Machall Gratz, 2008.12.05; Willem de Kock, 2008.12.03; Henry Hill, 2008.12.04

155 FOA: Colleen Till, 2008.12.04 156 CMOA: Henry Hill, 2009.02.16; Gerhard Otto, 2009.02.16

the swamp-system in Wilderness dries up, will it still be a popular holiday resort157?

157 FOA: Colleen Till, 2008.12.04; Henry Hill, 2008.12.04; Stiaan Carstens, 2008.12.04

8.3 Climate change mitigation

8.3.1 //Khara Hais’ response to climate change

It is clear from people’s observations as described above, that the climate in //Khara Hais is changing, and that is it has become less predictable to a certain extent. People have noticed that it is already affecting tourism, business, and agriculture and holds certain challenges for the local and district councils with regards to spatial planning, land-use management, disaster risk reduction, local economic development, and municipal service provision. Yet despite this, an analysis of the //Khara Hais LM and Siyanda DM strategic planning documentation shows that climate change mitigation and adaptation are not addressed at all. There is no analysis of the present or future expected impacts of climate change in the district, not to mention a mitigation or adaptation strategy.

Sustainable development addresses both mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. In several of the strategic planning documentation such as the Siyanda GDS, //Khara Hais IDP, and disaster risk management plans, sustainability is encouraged for all future developments in the district, from tourism to agriculture to urban planning. However, the only document that attempts to define, explain or describe what sustainable development means or entails is the //Khara Hais SDF158; allowing for only one conclusion: that in most strategic planning documentation it remains sophisticated rhetoric, with no concrete implementation strategy.

The SDF stipulates in detail what sustainable development entails and set forth principles of sustainability. Although an attempt at contextualisation is made, it remains theoretical and not applied to specific localities. Measures suggested in the SDF include:

Conserving energy and protecting the environmental through vernacular architecture,

158 //Khara Hais Local Municipality. 2008. Spatial development framework: Vol 1-3.

local building materials, relation to local environment, reuse of old buildings, flexibility in design, proximity to public transport, etc.;

Reducing the need for movement and mobility; Having a balance between pollution, waste produced and waste recycled;

Minimising the use of energy through the urban form, while maintaining good quality life;

Taking into account the place making theory of figure ground, linkage and social responsiveness in urban design by integrating land uses; Linking sequential movement through a series of spaces; and

Integrating buildings with public space.

The SDF also recognises sustainability as being multidimensional, and therefore includes objectives for social, economic, biophysical and technical sustainability; and encourages a project-base Sustainable Development Initiative (SDI) approach in the Municipality. However, it also remains theoretical, without a concrete implementation agenda that targets specific localities.

In practice then, how are people responding (or not) to the effects of climate change in Upington? Climate change is certainly not a buzz-word in //Khara Hais Municipality. There is no Council strategy to decrease its own greenhouse gas emissions or any initiative to transform Council buildings into environmentally-friendly offices. According to Geldenhuys and Du Plessis159, houses, offices and businesses in Upington have been built to adapt to drought and heat, but the biggest risk for loss and damage is flash floods. Residents and businesses do not build environmentally-friendly buildings for it is more expensive in the short-term. Sun panels are quite costly, and only found on farms where they have no other reliable source of energy160. Erven in Upington are furthermore too big resulting in high water costs to keep gardens. There is very little recycling being done in the town as it is not profitable, and lastly disaster risk reduction is not discussed at ward meetings, as there are more pressing needs such as basic

159 FOA: Conrad Geldenhuys & Jeremy du Plessis, 2008.12.01. 160 VNOA: Interview Theuns en Johan Botha, Plaas Spitskop, Upington, 2008.08.25.

service delivery and housing161.

But there are a number of ad-hoc initiatives that support sustainable development, though with certain challenges, to reduce the risk for disasters:

There are various projects to eradicate informal housing in Upington, though they experience a shortage in the number of contractors prepared to construct RDP housing162;

The Planning Department does not approve any development in dry river beds, flood plains, and below the 1:50 year flood line. They are allowing for higher densities and infill development on vacant land to the extent that the bulk infrastructure can support the development and it fits into the character of the area. But although they are supported by their own Council in their endeavours, there is not always support from the Province or the national departments of Water Affairs and Forestry, Housing and Environment and Tourism at the appeals tribunal163;

Existing urban land-use management policies include that only ‘Residential One’ is allowed in areas under the 1:50 year flood line – resulting in lower densities. A part of the house must also be above the flood line. The average size of erven in the high- income parts of the town has decreased from 1 000 square metres to 700 square metres due to land becoming more expensive, whereas in the lower-income areas erf sizes have been increased to 350m2to allow for add-ons to RDP houses164;

The SDF (not yet available) of the District Municipality addresses aspects such as bringing people closer to job opportunities, building more amenities and facilities for the poor, and providing rural communities with tarred roads, bridges across rivers and municipal services. The District Council furthermore encourages communities to keep towns clean, to recycle, and to conserve the environment165.

161 FOA: Conrad Geldenhuys & Jeremy du Plessis, 2008.12.01; Neels Heydenrich, 2008.11.30 162 FOA: James de Monk, 2008.12.01; Conrad Geldenhuys & Jeremy du Plessis, 2008.12.01 163 FOA: Conrad Geldenhuys & Jeremy du Plessis, 2008.12.01 164 FOA: Len Fourie, 2008.12.01 165 FOA: Itumeleng Thatelo, 2008.12.02

8.3.2 George’s responses to climate change

The changing climate in the western Cape is more pronounced than in the northern Cape. The Western Cape has conducted a vulnerability and adaptation assessment of the effects of climate change on the Province already in 2005166. In 2008 the Western Cape Province developed a comprehensive climate change strategy and action plan (the first regional climate change adaptation and mitigation strategy in Africa)167. To accomplish the objectives of the strategy throughout the province, this strategy needs to be translated into local strategies and efforts.

The changing climate in George is also more evident than in //Khara Hais. While some people in //Khara Hais may be concerned about climate change, they are mostly going about their business as usual. People in George have been forced by the severe weather events to take notice. Although to this date there is no mitigation or adaptation strategy in place, many local residents are taking initiatives to reduce the effects of severe weather, some farmers are changing their farming practices168, and the District Council is in the process of developing a climate change strategy169.

The concept of climate change is prevalent in a number of strategies, though only to the extent that it is identified as a threat to the area, offering no measures to mitigate or adapt. In the Eden State of the Environment Report170 climate change is recognised as a serious threat to the environment, and recommends that the Western Cape Climate Change Response Strategy be incorporated into the Eden IDP, SDF and disaster management plan and that, within the framework of the Response Strategy, a study into risks and key adaptations specific to Eden be conducted.

166 Western Cape Province. 2005. A status quo, vulnerability and adaptation assessment of the physical and socio- economic effects of climate change in the Western Cape. 167 Western Cape Province. 2008. A climate change strategy and action plan for the Western Cape. Department of Environmental Affairs and Development Planning, Western Cape Province. 168 Refer to section 9.2 169 FOA: Henry Hill, 2008.12.04; Dawie de Villiers, 2008.12.03 170 Eden District Municipality. (2008b). State of the environment report.

As in //Khara Hais, sustainable development is advocated and promoted in many documents such as the Eden GDS, IDP, and SDF, as well as the George SDF; though barely mentioned in the George IDP; and not mentioned at all in the George Local Economic Development Strategy or the Socio-economic Survey. Again, as in the case of //Khara Hais, sustainable development remains theoretical without any contextualised, concrete agenda.

The George SDF Vol II171 (Strategic Environmental Assessment) explains in detail what is meant by sustainable development, what principles are advocated and what measures are to be strived for. It stresses the need to maintain capital resources for the present and future generations, in terms of natural capital, manufacturing capital, human capital, social capital and financial capital; and measures in the economic, social, environmental and governance/ institutional sectors need to be taken to ensure this. The Eden SDF172 states that the overarching goal of the SDF is sustainable development. It furthermore suggests specific measures for specific types of land uses in the District to become more sustainable. Still, neither the George SDF nor the Eden SDF specifically addresses climate change adaptation and mitigation.

In practice then, how are people responding (or not) to the effects of climate change in George? In the George LM climate change is not an issue that is being discussed or planned for, even if people are aware of the issues. There is no future scenario planning to mitigate for or adapt to climate change. This is often seen as an issue for the environmentalists and not a multi-disciplinary issue. Urban planners are also so consumed with addressing the basic needs of people and creating decent living environments for the poor, that climate change is just not that high on the agenda. Few other organisations such as NGOs or CBOs are busying themselves with the issue. However, residents of George are taking the matter into their own hands, for example by letting their gutters run into the sewage system to prevent their gardens from

171 George Local Municipality. (2008b). Spatial Development Framework Vol II: Strategic Environmental Assessment. Jan 2008(draft2). 172 Eden District Municipality. 2003. Spatial Development Framework.

flooding, to the detriment of the sewage system173.

The District is taking the lead when it comes to climate change initiatives. It has also implemented an early warning system through a comprehensive mobile technology system at the Disaster Management Centre. But there are also a number of other initiatives that support sustainable development, though with certain challenges, to reduce the risk for disasters:

The Local Council building is an environmentally-friendly building, and the Council encourages all new developments to use alternative sources of energy such as solar heating, grey water tanks and alternative building material to become zero-emission buildings174;

Province is very strict about only allowing development within the urban edge, and about compacting cities through densification and infill development175. Though the local SDF does not address sustainable human settlements specifically, it does have a densification, and infill development and redevelopment policy that are enforced176;

The Provincial Department of Land Care in George is seeking to be more proactive in arresting the impact of severe weather events on the natural environment. They are combating over-grazing, pollution, weed and alien plants, are rehabilitating swamp areas, and are building structures in vulnerable areas and next to riverbanks to limit the loss of agricultural land and to manage the flow177;

The Provincial Department of Land Care would like to peg out the 1:50 year flood line on farms so that farmers can know where the high risk areas are. They also advice farmers to adjust their farming practices to reduce the losses178;

George LM takes the location of housing projects into consideration, and would never build below the flood line, but it often does not have enough money to build ideal houses that would be flood-resistant, such as raising the houses or building trenches around the houses. Some developments do end up being built in marsh areas as the availability of land is the biggest decision-making factor179;

George LM is trying to better integrate the minibus-taxi and bus routes to have a more

173 FOA: Willem de Kock, 2008.12.03; Henry Hill, 2008.12.04 174 FOA: Stiaan Carstens, 2008.12.04 175 FOA: Willem de Kock, 2008.12.03 176 FOA: Stiaan Carstens, 2008.12.04 177 FOA: Dawie de Villiers, 2008.12.03 178 FOA: Dawie de Villiers, 2008.12.03 179 FOA: Dr Machall Gratz, 2008.12.05; Stiaan Carstens, 2008.12.04

integrated approach towards public transport180; and

Stormwater and other infrastructure have been well-planned for and are well- maintained in George LM. The Municipality has won several national prizes, or have been commended181 for their infrastructure182.

If the sustainable development measures as proposed in the //Khara Hais SDF and the George and Eden SDFs are implemented, they might indirectly address climate change mitigation and adaptation. However, given the significance of global warming and climate change, a sustainable development strategy that specifically integrates climate change mitigation and adaptation measures are needed. Concrete action plans identifying localities, allocating budgets and identifying responsible people are needed.

8.4 Farming and the urban-rural nexus in the Northern Cape

8.4.1 Drought conditions

PJ van der Merwe, the South African historian of the twentieth century who is most directly associated with the history of climate in the arid and semi-arid parts of South Africa, was critical of suggestions that there were indications of climate change.183 His reasoning was based on contemporary understanding of what constitutes drought. He did not see drought as a real factor. It was a state of mind. Assuming that there were drier times and wetter times. Humans would merely adjust to those conditions. Van der Merwe explains the mentality of the farmer on the North-west frontier region as follows:

180 FOA: Stiaan Carstens, 2008.12.04 181 Winner of the Environmental Category at the IMESA Congress for the Kaaimans Pump Station Project; Wilson Award for the best medium size waste water treatment plant in the country; finalist for the best EPWP project in the country; award by DWAF for water quality of excellent standard; award by DWAF for the eradication of buckets; finalist at IMESA Congress for Public Works Program in the Roads and Storm Water category; finalist at IMESA Congress in the Water and Sewer category for the Touw River Pipeline Project. 182 FOA: Stiaan Carstens, 2008.12.04; Lindsay Mooiman, 2009.03.02 183 PJ van der Merwe, Die noordwaartse beweging van die boere voor die Groot Trek (1770-1842), (WP van Stockum & zoon, Den Haag, [c. 1937]), pp. 186-96.

“Boer kan altyd daarvan seker wees dat die droogte weer sal kom. Hy kan ook vas daarop reken dat dit dit nie altyd sal duur nie. Maar presies wanneer die droogte sal kom en hoe lank dit sal bly, kan niemand vooraf bepaal nie.” (A farmer can rest assured that the drought would always come again. He can also count on it that it would not last forever. But

precisely when it will come and how long it will stay, no one can say in advance).184

This is a mentality that is still very much alive in the Northern Cape Province amongst farmers. Moreover, it is not confined to an older generation. It is an ever-present state of consciousness also with a younger generation, with advanced and specialist qualifications in farming.185

In former times farmers’ response to drought conditions was to move away and seek grazing for livestock elsewhere. There was always the certainty that there would be some place where there would be grazing and where rainfall would occur. Drought conditions could be confined to a single farm, a few farms, a district, or a region.186 The response of the farmers would then be to locate areas where it would be possible for them to survive. In modern terms we would speak of these people as “internally displaced environmental refugees”187.

The drought of the 1960s is remembered to the present as one of the most severe experienced in the Northern Cape. Sheep farmers of Bushman Land started trekking with their livestock to Upington and the northern parts of the Kalahari. Some were even assisted by the South African Defence Force with the trek into the Kalahari. The response of the local farmers was telling. Mr Becker recalls:

“Ons het hulle met oop arms ontvang. Ons kon hulle help. My pa het geweet van droogte. Dit was moontlik om aan hulle grond te verhuur.” (We welcomed them with open arms. My

184 PJ van der Merwe, Trek: studies oor die mobiliteit van die pioniersbevolking aan die Kaap, (Nasionale Pers Beperk, Kaapstad, Bloemfontein en Port Elizabeth, 1945), p. 227. 185 TOA: Interview with Mr George Ehlers Barnard (46), Koedoestraat 20, Upington, 2008.08.25; TOA: Interview Willem Hendrik Minaar Barnard (85), Chala Ann Woonstelle, Nr 3, Upington, 2008.08.25. 186 FA Venter, “Reën dit werklik minder?” in FA Venter (red.), Water, (Afrikaanse Pers-Boekhandel vir die Ministerie van Waterwese, n.d. [c. 1970]), pp. 227-228. 187 E Hsiao, “Environmental Refugees: the human rights implications of global climate change”, 28 October 28 2008, Peace and Conflict Monitor. [Web: http://www.monitor.upeace.org/innerpg.cfm?id_article=556], [Date of access: 19 February 2009].

father knew of droughts. It was possible (for us) to rent them some land.)188

In the drought of the 1980s a survey by Hugo among frontier farmers in South Africa found that drought conditions were a powerful force responsible for pushing farmers off the land. Along with rising interest rates on credit, these farmers were unable to bear the brunt. Only the hardiest of farmers were able to survive the drought conditions.189

8.4.2 Irrigation farming

Whilst livestock farmers in the region are possibly the most in tune with climatic conditions, their agricultural neighbours, specifically the irrigation farmers, tend to be more focused on technological solutions to conditions of anticipated or assumed drought. The major factor is that farmers, especially in the Upington area, are convinced that they will have a consistent supply of water in the Orange River that is currently for all practical purposes a very well-managed and controlled water way. They are confident that the supply will be maintained and they plan their future farming operations accordingly. A major factor of concern with this attitude is that under conditions of climate change, there may come a time when the supply of water is not as consistent as it is today. There may also become strategic shifts and new priorities in water allocations to specific communities in South Africa.

The farmers in the Upington region work on a cannel system which supplies them with water through a needs based approach. Farmers thus must order their quota of water for irrigation on a bi-weekly basis190. From the investigation it seems that this system is fairly unregulated and relies on the honesty of the farmers especially those upstream.

In a recent study on the impact of climate change on crop farming in South Africa,

188 TOA: Interview Gert Frederick Dirk Becker (63), Plaas Stellaland, Distrik Gordonia, 2008.08.24. 189 P Hugo, “Frontier farmers in South Africa” in African Affairs, 87 (349), October 1988, p. 544. 190 VNOA: Interview Kobus Lategan, Department of Agriculture, Upington, 2008.08.26.

Benhin’s statistical economic analysis suggests that irrigation crops are likely to be more affected than dryland crops. Moreover, he suggests greater attention needs to be given to managing the available water supplies, as many regions of the country are likely to be affected by water shortages.191 Predictions suggest that gross irrigation water demand conveyance losses of up to 20 per cent, and spray drift losses of as much as 10 per cent can be directly linked to anticipated consequences of climate change in the Orange-Senqu River basin in the not too distant future.192

Irrigation farmers along the active agricultural regions of the Lower Orange River in the Siyanda District, agree that reduced accessible water supplies would represent a major threat in the case of climate-induced environmental changes. They were prepared to live with hotter temperatures and even jokingly hinted at the fact that it could enable them to accelerate the harvest of their fresh grapes for exporting to the markets of the United Kingdom. In an interview with Mr. Kobus Lategan of the Department of Agriculture, specific mention was made to the possibility of even a second harvest per year should temperatures increase193.

A rise in temperature would mean less likelihood of frost and thus better harvest especially for wheat and lucerne194, and the possibility exists to rotate crops more frequently. Many of the farmers in the Upington area have changed to lucerne as a cash crop because of its quick harvesting potential. An increase in the temperature would greatly benefit these farmers. One of the disadvantages is that lucerne is a water intensive crop and a rise in temperature would have obvious impacts on water availability. It is thus a situation of quid pro quo as to the exact yield one would get. A rise in temperature would also mean that farmers would have to rely more on precise crop rotations. The current options in utilising flood irrigation (especially for grapes) will be severely compromised should temperatures rise.

191 JKA Benhin, “South African crop farming and climate change: an economic assessment of impacts” in Global Environmental Change (Corrected proof. Available online as from 12 August 2008) 192 Orange Senqu River Commision (ORASECOM), Orange-Senqu River basin: preliminary transboundaryt diagnostic analysis, (UNDP and Global Environmental Facility, April 2008), p. 19. 193 VNOA: Interview Kobus Lategan, Department of Agriculture, Upington, 2008.08.26. 194 VNOA: Interview Kobus Lategan, Department of Agriculture, Upington, 2008.08.26.

Picture 3: An example195 of flood irrigation of grape in the Upington region196

Furthermore, the processes in the supply chain of various crops, like cotton, rely on a steady supply and predictions of crop yields. Climate change would have a profound impact on organisations such as the Cotton Board due to the fact that the rise in temperature would make yield predictions quite impossible. This would be due to the fact that farmers would most likely plant lucerne, as a cash crop, rather than cotton197. Alternatively, and in order to eliminate supply chain uncertainty, the regulations governing the registration as fodder producer could be implemented more rigorously. This would entail that all farmers planning to plant and harvest lucerne (instead of cotton) must register as such a producer. This will provide more predictable long-term

195 The photograph shows flood irrigation in the Upington area after the water has subsided. Farmers indicated that they apply such irrigation on a bi-weekly basis in the summer and every three weeks to a month in the winter. The vineyards are flooded up to a depth of approximately 3-4cm. 196 Photograph credit: Ms. Willi Faling, Town and Regional Planning, University of Pretoria, South Africa. 197 VNOA: Interview Kobus Lategan, Department of Agriculture, Upington, 2008.08.26.

estimates for all the other role-players in the different crop value chains.

Beside the direct impact on various crop productions, Mr. Lategan indicated that an increase in temperature would not only require adaptation of farming but of the general management of agriculture. Mention was made that although an increase in temperature might have certain direct benefits, one must also consider the indirect effects. The already intense heat in the Upington area makes it almost impossible for farm workers to be outside at certain times of the year. Climate change could exacerbate the problem and cause a total relook at the working hours of the farm workers. It is thus not unrealistic to imagine farm working hours to shift to earlier in the mornings, longer breaks during the most intense heat periods of the day, and then a second work shift in the late afternoon to early evening.

A significant amount of the grape production is refined into raisins. Most of the drying of the grapes occurs though the use of direct sunlight198. There are reported cases where some of the farmers have lost their raisins due to the intense heat scorching the grapes. Climate change will thus also have a further impact on the raisin production in the Upington area.

Any mention of the chances of a more erratic, and even reduced water supply, simply was not accepted. It would be downright harmful to irrigation activities along the Orange River.199 The reason for this state of affairs can be ascribed to a common human syndrome in the Anthropogenic era. It has globally become commonplace to make use of technology to alter, for example the courses of rivers, creating artificial storage facilities, and thereby altering the hydrological cycle.200 This has created an overt sense of confidence that it would be possible for the irrigation agriculturalist to continue adjusting the environment to suit specific human requirements.

198 VNOA: Interview Felix Theunis Visser (57), Plot 686, Aughrabies, 2008.08.27 199 TOA: Interview Felix Theunis Visser (57), Plot 686, Aughrabies, 2008.08.27; TOA: Anton Thomas (Div) de Villiers, Plot 61 Kanoneiland, Northern Cape, 2008.08.26. 200 M Meybeck, “Global analysis of river systems: from earth system controls to anthropocene syndromes” in Philosophical Transactions (of the Royal Society): Biological Sciences, 358(1440), 2003.12.29, pp. 1935-1955.

The ease in which water supplies can be lost is evident from the northern part of the Siyanda District. At the Philandersbron settlement, near Rietfontein, some 300km north of Upington, members of the local Baster community have been resident ever since the 1890s. They had sunk a well at Philandersbron River. Mr Dawid du Plessis’ father irrigated an extensive plot of land to the west of Hakskeenpan from 1951 up to his death in the early 1970s.201 Like a number of his neighbours, Du Plessis and his family worked the land adjacent to the river, flowing down to Hakskeenpan. On the other side of the pan, at Loubos and Vet River, similar irrigation schemes were up and running. Then the local water supply started drying up, leaving the Du Plessis family without sufficient security to maintain a reasonable livelihood. After the death of his father, Mr Du Plessis tried to continue irrigation activities. However, by the mid-1970s he had been forced to concede that the water supply of former times was no longer available.202

Today, where once there were lands worked for maize, wheat, beans and peas, the land resembles a dustbowl, similar to the American West in the 1950s. Of the estimated 7 000 residents of the Mier district, at least 70 per cent are considered impoverished. They largely rely on government grants to ensure a livelihood in a harsh environment where a new generation has learnt to rely exclusively on meal and flour supplies from local shops, made possible by government grants. They no longer produce any crops of their own.203

201 TOA Oral archive, Interview Dawid du Plessis (65), Skepkolk, PO Box 95, Moer, 2008.12.01. 202 TOA Oral archive, Interview Dawid du Plessis (65), Skepkolk, PO Box 95, Moer, 2008.12.01. 203 TOA Oral archive, Interview Dawid du Plessis (65), Skepkolk, PO Box 95, Moer, 2008.12.01: TOA Berend Jacobus Snyders (53) Namibieweg 146, Rietfontein, 2008.12.01.

Picture 4: Mr Dawid du Plessis stands in a dustbowl at a water valve almost covered in Kalahari sand, where his family had worked irrigated lands until the early 1970s.204

Philandersbron, with its covered well and continued water supply from a distant source, will never be an irrigation area like Upington. Neither will Rietfontein, with its palm-fringed lake that no longer takes much water. Upington has the mighty Orange River. Its residents seem to be assured of their future water supply as they plant gardens and nurture landscapes to create the impression of a flourishing desert oasis. The town is indeed a veritable oasis in a beautiful harsh land where the camel thorn tree (Acacia erioloba) is the proud symbol of natural forestland in the Kalahari. The question that remains is: for how long will that environment be sustainable?

204 Photograph credit: Prof Johann Tempelhoff, Vaaltriangle Campus, North-West University, South Africa.

Picture 5: A typical camel thorn tree of the Kalahari (Acacia erioloba)205

8.4.3 Alternative crops and biofuels

Lategan206 indicted that if the projection of climate change becomes a reality then the farmers in the Upington area will have to consider the possibility of alternative crops such as figs, granites, and Hoodia Gordonii207. Rise in temperature would also necessitate the early planting of cotton which means an early harvest and thus a lower

205 Photograph credit: Harald Süpfle. Shared online at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Kameldornbaum_Canyon_Lodge.JPG under the Creative Commons Licence CC-BY-SA-2.5. 206 VNOA: Interview Kobus Lategan, Department of Agriculture, Upington, 2008.08.26. 207 Hoodia Gordonii was discovered and used by the San tribe from the Kalahari Desert since prehistoric times. They chewed the bitter Hoodia plant twice a day to suppress hunger and thirst during long hunting trips. In 1963 the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) in South Africa began research on Hoodia Gordonii as an appetite suppressant. The CSIR obtained a patent in 1997, which were licensed to UK-based botanical pharmaceuticals company Phytopharm for further development. Recognising the indigenous knowledge and ethobotany of the San people, the CSIR and the San signed a benefit share agreement which gives the San people percentage royalties on the use of Hoodia Gordonii for commercial purposes (from: Wynberg, R. 2004. “Rhetoric, Realism and Benefit Sharing: Use of Traditional Knowledge of Hoodia Species in the Development of an Appetite Suppressant.” Journal of World Intellectual Property, 7(6): 851-876).

premium on the crop.

Picture 6: The appetite suppressant: Hoodia Gordonii

Something, which farmers might also need to consider, is the use of organic farming methods. Manure instead of fertiliser will become increasingly necessary because the price of fertiliser will increase exponentially. Fewer chemicals for farming will also have to be considered. Beside farming methods which need to adapt, farmers will have to consider alternative irrigation methods. Micro- and drip irrigation will have to be used which will have obvious financial implications. Alternatively “within-row” irrigation must also be considered. The implementation of the latter will greatly depend on the use of water pumps with their resulting dependency on the electrical grid.

On further investigation in became clear that the majority of the farmers are aware of the fact that their current practices in a changing climate scenario are unsustainable. As mentioned, especially farmers using flood irrigation would be severely at risk. The research showed that the farmers are not particularly loyal to any type of crop, as long

as their farming activities serve their economic needs208. Thus, it is safe to argue that most farmers in the Upington region would consider alternative crops, should they ensure the same economic security.

The notion of substituting 50% of the current crops (e.g. grapes) with a non-food based crop (such as the castor bean plant - ricinus communis) for the production of oil, which can be used for the production of biodiesel, were investigated. Lategan209 of the Department of Agriculture investigated the idea further and found that the castor bean plant would be ideally suited for the harsh Northern Cape Province climate. His research correlated with that of the state-owned Brazilian Enterprise for Agricultural Research (EMBRAPA) in Campina Grande210. The EMBRAPA found that castor bean plant is easy to grow and is resistant to drought, which makes it an ideal crop for the extensive semi-arid region of northeast Brazil, which has a similar climate to that of the Northern Cape211. The castor bean and maize can be cultivated on an annual rotation basis. The castor bean plant is mostly a summer crop and subject to frost,212 which makes the Northern Cape conditions especially favourable. The growth period for the plant varies from 120 to 200 days depending on the variant213. One of the disadvantages of castor bean cultivation is the fact that the plant itself is very poisonous to animals and humans (a by-product is resin). Due to the toxicity of the harvest cake of the plant, it can only be used for fertilising, but due to the high nitrogen

(N2) content makes it an ideal fertiliser especially if the rotation crop afterwards is maize214.

208 VNOA: Interview Felix Theunis Visser (57), Plot 686, Aughrabies, 2008.08.27 209 VNOA: Fax communication with author: Kobus Lategan, Department of Agriculture, Upington, 2008.09.11. 210 M Osava, “Energy in a Castor Bean”, Tierramerica, 2001. http://www.tierramerica.net/2003/0526/ianalisis.shtml, (Access: 2009.02.23). 211 RA Hudson, ed. Brazil: A Country Study. 1997, Washington: GPO for the Library of Congress. 212 HC Visser, Hulpboek vir Boere in Suid-Afrika, 1957, Departement van Landbou, Pretoria: Staatsdrukker. 213 The traditional castor bean plant grows to a height of approximately 3m. A dwarf variant has been cultivated successfully in Brasil for a number of years which grows up to 1,5m. This dwarf variant is quite conducive for machine harvesting. 214 HC Visser, Hulpboek vir Boere in Suid-Afrika, 1957, Departement van Landbou, Pretoria: Staatsdrukker.

Picture 7: The castor bean plant (ricinus communis)215

The investigation showed that most of the farmers were prepared to consider this alternative as long as it meant their “bottom line” would stay the same or even increase216. Visser217 mentioned that a rumour was circulating in 2006 in the district that a bio-fuels refinery might be opened in Upington. He recalls that most of the conversations towards producing maize for ethanol were very positive. The idea of a non-food based crop for the production of bio-fuels could be an alternative that would also have zero impact on food security (compared to the use of food-based crops such as maize for the production of bio-fuels). It would not only be a feasible adaptation strategy but could even produce more economic benefits for the Northern Cape farmers (commercial and subsistence) in the long run218.

215 Photograph credit: James Preacher, Army Corps of Engineers, United States. 216 VNOA: Interview Felix Theunis Visser (57), Plot 686, Aughrabies, 2008.08.27; VNOA: Telephonic interview: Stanley Chamberlain, Chief Executive Officer, Upington Islands Main Irrigation Board, P.O. Box 845, Upington, 8800, 2008.08.26.; VNOA: Interview Kobus Lategan, Department of Agriculture, Upington, 2008.08.26. 217 VNOA: Interview Felix Theunis Visser (57), Plot 686, Aughrabies, 2008.08.27 218 See the research of the Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária in this regard at http://www.embrapa.br/english.

Picture 8: Castor bean seeds219

8.4.4 Livestock farming

The Northern Cape is currently the second largest sheep farming area in South Africa.220 It forms part of a pastoral tradition that was introduced by African communities of the Iron Age some two thousand years ago who settled in the region.221 The sheep farming history of the region goes back well into the pre-colonial period when Khoi livestock farmers migrated with their herds along the riverine environments of the Orange in the Northern Cape.222 As of the eighteenth century evidence exist of a variety of communities settling in the region. Indications are that in regions, such as the Richtersveld, they could have relied more extensively on goat farming because of their hardiness.223 Many of the new settlers were descendents of people of European origin who had settled at the Cape since the seventeenth century.

219 Photograph credit: Fujitsu at http://www.fujitsu.com/global/news/pr/archives/month/2006/20061207-01.html 220 Republic of South Africa, South African Yearbook 2007/08, (Formeset Publishers, Pretoria, 2007), p. 58; Republic of South Africa, Report 11-02-04 (2002), Statistics South Africa, Census of agriculture provincial statistics 2002 – Northern Cape, p. 48. 221 M Poland, D Hammond-Tooke and L Voigt, The abundant herds: a celebration of the cattle of the Zulu, (Fernwood Press, Vlaeberg [2003], 2004), p. 14. 222 MT Hoffman and RF Rohde, “From pastoralism to tourism: the historical impact of changing land use practices in Namaqualand” in Journal of Arid Environments, 70 (4), September, 2007, pp. 641-658. 223 U Mussgnug, “At ethno-archaeological study of pastoralism along the Orange River at the Richtersveld” in AB Smith (ed.) Einiqualand: studies of the Orange River frontier, (UCT Press, Cape Town,, 1995), pp. 172-173.

By the eighteenth century many poor and young farmers of European descent who could not afford to farm in the densely populated areas of the Western Cape, would trek into the more arid regions, primarily with fairly small herds of sheep.224 It was these communities that introduced new skills and forms of subsistence strategies in order to secure livelihoods under extreme conditions.225 Goats and sheep became an important livestock component of most farming operations in the region.

Towards the end of the nineteenth century, as a result of extreme drought conditions in 1895, as well as the Rinderpest of 1896, sheep farming in the region experienced a setback. Many white families were impoverished by the natural ordeals to which they had been exposed. Then the Cape Colonial government, with the assistance of missionaries in the region, worked on strategies to be of assistance to these people. It was then that irrigation settlements, such as at Kakamas and later also at Upington gained momentum.226 Many livestock farmers switched to irrigation, whilst others chose to either practice mixed farming, or return to livestock farming, once they were financially in a position to acquire sufficient herds.

In the twentieth century, the establishment of the Department of Agriculture and its research institutions, paved the way for conducting experiments on suitable livestock for the diverse regions of the country. Amongst the first new strains of sheep to be introduced to the region was Karakul sheep.

224 N Penn, “The Orange River frontier zone, c. 1700-1805” in AB Smith (ed.) Einiqualand: studies of the Orange River frontier, (UCT Press, Cape Town,, 1995), p. 50. 225 N Penn, “The Orange River frontier zone, c. 1700-1805” in AB Smith (ed.) Einiqualand: studies of the Orange River frontier, (UCT Press, Cape Town,, 1995), pp. 21-110. 226 M Cole, South Africa (Methuen and Co Ltd, London, 1966), p. 131; PJ Rossouw, “Die arbeidskolonie Kakamas” in Archives Yearbook for South African history 14(2), 1951, (Government Printer, Parow, n.d.), p. 367.

Picture 9: Karakul ram227

Karakul sheep were introduced to southern Africa at the start of the twentieth century when Friedrich von Lindequist, the governor of the then colony of German South West Africa, actively promoted the introduction of this hardy sheep breed to Namibia. These sheep, indigenous to Bokhara in Uzbekistan, were imported from Austria.228 At the time Karakul farming did not make any headway in Germany.229 German South West Africa, it soon transpired, was a much better proposition. Karakul farming remained an experimental activity in South West Africa until after World War I (1914-1918) when it became a major industry enabling the local economy to recover economically from recessionary conditions.230 In the early 1930s the South African government allowed a restricted number of Karakul sheep for experimental farming purposes in the country. In Namaqualand Karakul soon replaced the indigenous Namaqua breed.231 Their hardiness made hardiness the Karakul breed popular, especially in the Northern Cape. The South African Karakul Breeders Association was established in 1947.232 In the face of growing international protest against the fur trade in the early 1980s there was a sharp decline. The international market for Karakul furs literally

227 Photograph credit: Pine Lane Farm at http://www.plfkarakuls.com/index.html (Accessed: 2009.02.19) 228 Anon., “Sheep farming in South Africa” in National Woolgrowers Association” at http://www.nwkv.co.za/view_article.cfm?aid=70&language=English (Accessed 2008.08.31) 229 GG Weigend, “German settlement patterns in Namibia” in Geographical Review, 75(2), April 1985, p. 162. 230 M Bollig, “The colonial encapsulation of the North-Western Namibian pastoral economy” in Africa: Journal of the International African Institute, 68(4) 1998, p. 520. 231 Anon., “Sheep farming in South Africa” in National Woolgrowers Association” at http://www.nwkv.co.za/view_article.cfm?aid=70&language=English (Accessed 2008.08.31). 232 Anon., “Sheep farming in South Africa” in National Woolgrowers Association” at http://www.nwkv.co.za/view_article.cfm?aid=70&language=English (Accessed 2008.08.31)

collapsed.233 The Humane Society of the United States of America, founded in 1954, headed the protest against the fur trade.234 It is an active movement of civil society that targets, primarily the fashion industry and retail outlets responsible that trade in fur.235 Despite the apparent opposition to karakul, the industry is still alive and well. Currently, South Africa and Namibia annually export about 3,5 million karakul furs.236

The switch to Dorper sheep in the 1980s in the Northern Cape, was partly the result of a growing demand for quality mutton sheep farming. The Dorper seemed to suit the requirements of sheep farmers in the Northern Cape. It is a cross-breed between the Blackhead Persian ewe and the Dorset Horn that was cultivated by the South African department of agriculture in the 1930s at Grootfontein in the Karoo, with the objective of providing sheep farmers in the arid parts of the country with hardy sheep that could withstand high temperatures. The sheep have a characteristic black head and white body. There are also strains of the white-headed Dorper, which is relative less numerous than the black-headed animal. The outstanding features of the Dorper, currently the second most popular sheep, after the Merino in South Africa, are: outstanding fertility, hardiness, good mutton production and easy to care for.237

233 WW Schmokel, “The myth of the white farmer: commercial agriculture in Namibia, 1900-1983” in The International Journal of African Historical Studies, 18(1), 1985, p. 103, Text of footnote 27; Anon., “Sheep farming in South Africa” in National Woolgrowers Association” at http://www.nwkv.co.za/view_article.cfm?aid=70&language=English (Accessed 2008.08.31) 234 R Johnson, “How the Humane Society works” in howStuffWorks at http://people.howstuffworks.com/humane- society1.htm (Accessed 2008.08.31). 235 See for example Anon, “Mary wore a little lamb: the truth about Karakul lamb fur” (Updated 2006.06.20) at Humane Society of the United States at http://www.hsus.org/furfree/campaigns/investigations/karakul/karakul_investigation.html (Accessed 2008.08.31). 236 Anon., “Sheep farming in South Africa” in National Woolgrowers Association” at http://www.nwkv.co.za/view_article.cfm?aid=70&language=English (Accessed 2008.08.31) 237 C Milne, “The history of the Dorper sheep” in Small Ruminant Research, 36(2), May 2000, pp. 99-102; HO de Waal and WJ Combrinck, “The development of the Dorper in its nutrition and a perspective of the grazing ruminant on veld” in Small Ruminant Research, 36(2), 2000, pp. 103-117; Anon, Dorper (sheep) in Wikipedia at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dorper_sheep (Accessed 2009.02.09); Anon., “Dorper” in Breeds of livestock, Okalahoma State University, USA, at http://www.ansi.okstate.edu/breeds/sheep/dorper/ (Accessed 2009.02.09)

Picture 10: Dorper sheep238

Circumstantial evidence seems to suggest that as livestock farmers in the Northern Cape in the 1930s adjusted to the introduction of new strains of sheep indigenous breeds were gradually phased out. As a result of scientific research and progress made in breeding more hardy sheep, progressive farmers increasingly shifted away from indigenous livestock. This explains why most of the farmers gradually changed over to Dorpers. The focus was placed on mutton production and for this purpose the Dorper was amicably suitable. From the shifts in trend, it appears as if there is more of a practical motivation for the farmers changing over to Dorpers.

In an interview one farmer explained that in former times, when they farmed with Karakul, it was important for the farmer to keep a close eye and take special care of the sheep. Farmers were then more than aware of the drought conditions and they would act swiftly in response to any changes. The transition to Dorper sheep had the effect that farmers hardly noticed if and when drought conditions were at the order of the day. The livestock was hardy and could survive under harsh conditions.239 Their farming operations also became less labour intensive. This made it easier to farm with Dorpers.

Given the awareness we currently have of the phenomenon of climate change, the

238 Photograph credit: The South African Stud Book and Livestock Improvement Association at http//studbook.co.za/Breeders/wonderpan/dorper.htm (Accessed: 2009.02.19) 239 TOA: Interview Willem Hendrik Minaar Barnard (85), Chala Ann Woonstelle, Nr 3, Upington, 2008.08.25.

apparent shifts in sheep farming in the region could well be directly related to changing climatic conditions that have taken place since the 1930s.

Whilst cattle farming in regions such as the slightly less arid Vryburg, to the north-east of Upington tends to flourish, farmers in the Siyanda District have increasingly in recent years started moving away from cattle farming. In cases where cattle are part of the livestock population, careful planning is a notable feature of farming operations. The Northern Cape is one of regions in South Africa with the most degraded land. Consequently, concerted efforts are made by government officials to help farmers maintain sound conservation principles in the conduct of farming operations.

Mr George Barnard, a university trained farmer who comes from a family line with extensive experience of farming conditions in the Northern Cape, farms with some Bonsmara cattle on his land north of Upington. His approach to cattle farming, which will in time become his major area of operations, is holistic and based on experience gained in parts of Africa and Southern Africa.240 This type of farming operation is very extensive and requires the careful management and rotation of grazing lands. Mr Barnard’s farming operations rely on the pipeline from the Orange River for its water. It appears to be extremely vulnerable, should there be a breakdown in water supply from this source.241

In the early 1980s first extensive pipelines were laid in the Kalahari. The Kalahari West and East pipelines have been responsible for a major change in the manner in which farming land has been put to use in the Kalahari242. Currently in the area of the western pipeline an estimated 33 550 head of livestock rely on this water supply. They form part of the operations on 85 farms over a surface area of almost 700 000 hectares.243 The eastern pipeline serves 285 farms with a collective surface area of 1,5 million

240 TOA: Interview with Mr George Ehlers Barnard (46), Koedoestraat 20, Upington, 2008.08.25. 241 TOA: Interview with Mr George Ehlers Barnard (46), Koedoestraat 20, Upington, 2008.08.25. 242 VNOA: Interview with Mr Abrie Agenbach, Kwezi V3 Consulting Engineers, 2008.08.26. 243 TOA: Interview Mr Petrus Abel Elias (Pierre) Nel (66), Nel & Vennote Chartered Accountants, Upington, 2008.08.28.

hectares, and some 90 150 head of livestock.244 In a way also livestock farmers have thus benefitted from technological interventions that have opened up more comprehensive and extensive land-use to farmers. Mr Pierre Nel, a chartered accountant of Upington and veteran community leader, who is responsible for the administration of the system of water supply expresses the personal fear that the land may become degraded as a result of more intensive use. However, at this point there are few indications of deterioration. Only about two or three farming units out of 85 can be classified as being in a state of neglect.245 Another interesting development is that more foreigners are beginning to purchase land in the Kalahari.246 They are prepared to pay exceedingly good prices of the land and do not seem to be interested in livestock farming.247 In fact, they seem to be structuring their operations within the framework of an active environmental and conservational awareness system. This trend will continue for a considerable time. It could change the manner in which land is being used in the Kalahari.248 The piped water supply in the Kalahari could acquire a new consumer value, which needs to be mitigated in strategies aimed at planning for climate change. It is also of relevance to the discussion in the next section of this report.

8.4.5 Pipeline sabotage

Farmers have already contemplated what it would mean if the water pipeline has to be sabotaged. It would mean that their farming operations would literally immediately come to an end. There are no surface water supplies. Neither are they in a position to use their groundwater supplies for livestock feeding in a sustainable manner. The livestock would have to be relocated in other areas by truck as soon as possible.249

244 TOA: Interview Mr Petrus Abel Elias (Pierre) Nel (66), Nel & Vennote Chartered Accountants, Upington, 2008.08.28. 245 TOA: Interview Mr Petrus Abel Elias (Pierre) Nel (66), Nel & Vennote Chartered Accountants, Upington, 2008.08.28. 246 TOA: Interview with Mr Cornelius Johannes (Kerneels) Nortjé (66), Perseel 626, Opwag Groblershoop, Afdeling Kenhardt, district Gordonia, 2008.08.28. 247 TOA: Interview Mr Petrus Abel Elias (Pierre) Nel (66), Nel & Vennote Chartered Accountants, Upington, 2008.08.28. 248 TOA: Interview Mr Petrus Abel Elias (Pierre) Nel (66), Nel & Vennote Chartered Accountants, Upington, 2008.08.28. 249 TOA: Interview with Mr George Ehlers Barnard (46), Koedoestraat 20, Upington, 2008.08.25.

8.4.6 Replacing livestock with game

In the face of imminent increased climate change livestock farmers in the region should consider changing over to game farming. This should then become a focus with a view to the production of venison – indigenous wildlife meat in the Northern Cape. Research of this nature, conducted in Australia suggests that if sheep could be replaced with kangaroo farming greenhouse gases could be reduced by as much as 3 per cent per annum.250 Moreover, in the case of extensive game farming, it could imply that if farm fences and encampments are reduced it may be possible to re-introduce large herds of wildlife to the Northern Cape. These could then be harvested in a scientific manner to ensure a sustainable income for livestock farmers.

Amongst government officials there are reservations about making drastic shifts in the farming sector. Mr Nico Toerien, responsible for sustainable resource management in the Siyanda district office of the Department of Agriculture and Land Reform, points out that the Northern Cape’s Kalahari is possibly the best managed half-desert in the world.251 He is of the opinion that game meat production cannot be compared with beef and mutton production. However, he pointed out that his reference framework was the type of game farming that currently is popular in the Northern Cape.252 This implies trophy-hunting activities, primarily by overseas hunter tourists who frequent South Africa. What is suggested here instead, is that game farming of this nature is not necessarily desirable under circumstances of addressing climate change mitigation.253 Instead, it is suggested there should be a concerted effort to reintroduce substantial populations of wildlife, in the forms of massive herds, that could be harvested in an orderly and scientific manner. It is suggested that consideration be given to the re- introduction of indigenous game herds that were endemic in the region in former

250 M Perry, “Kangeroo farming would cur greenhouse gases: study” in Reuters, 2008.08.07 at http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSSYD8867720080808 (Accessed 2009.02.07). 251 TOA Interview with Mr Nicolaas Johannes (Nico) Toerien, Department of Africulture and Land Reform, Upington, 2008.08.25. 252 TOA Interview with Mr Nicolaas Johannes (Nico) Toerien, Department of Africulture and Land Reform, Upington, 2008.08.25. 253 Tourism does however seem to be a growing preoccupation in Namaqualand. See MT Hoffman and RF Rohde, “From pastoralism to tourism: the historical impact of changing land use practices in Namaqualand” in Journal f Arid Environments, 70 (4), September, 2007, pp. 641-658.

times.254 An experimental territory can be earmarked for the removal of fencing enclosures, or where camp enclosures are not currently in place. Experiments should then be conducted on meat production processes with a view to expending the potential of venison.

Given the fact that climate change will inevitably put water supplies in the region at a premium, it is worth noting that a single head of cattle consumes about 50 litres of water per day. One sheep consumes about 5 litres of water per day.255 When it is borne in mind that the carrying capacity of the land in the eastern section of the pipeline is estimated to be 1 large head of livestock per 14ha, and in the western region 22-30 ha per large head of livestock, it becomes evident that there is reason to question the sustainability of land use patterns for the purposes of exotic livestock farming. This is an opinion, from the perspective of mitigation potential conditions of disaster, as a result of climate change.

8.4.7 Signs of climate change from sources of local and indigenous knowledge

There is almost consensus amongst both irrigation and livestock farmers that changes are evident in the local climate. One of the major comments coming from irrigation farmers is the erratic nature of the climate.256 It is increasingly difficult to predict from which direction the rain would be coming. At Kanoneiland on the Orange River, not far from Upington farmers experienced frost on 22 September 2007 when their vines were beginning to blossom.257 In April 2007 the Vissers, farming in the vicinity of Keimoes, experienced frost on two portions of land under vines. This is considered to be exceptional.258

254 See for example C Roche, “’The Springbok … drink the rain’s blood’: environmental history – the case of the /Xam and an understanding of Springbok treks” in South African Historical Journal, 53, 2005, pp. 8-12. 255 TOA Interview with Mr Nicolaas Johannes (Nico) Toerien, Department of Africulture and Land Reform, Upington, 2008.08.25. 256 TOA: Interview with Mr Cornelius Johannes (Kerneels) Nortjé (66), Perseel 626, Opwag Groblershoop, Afdeling Kenhardt, district Gordonia, 2008.08.28. 257 TOA Anton Thomas (Div) de Villiers, Plot 61 Kanoneiland, Northern Cape, 2008.08.26. 258 TOA, Abraham Jacobus (Abrie) Visser (27), Omstaanboerdery Kassapeiland, Friersdale, Oranjerivier, 2008.08.26.

Extreme climatic conditions can be costly for farmers. At Groblershoop the Nortjés were faced with fears that part of their grape crop had started blossoming in August, before the onset of spring.259 Further to the north at Mr Hendrik Bott still recollects the damages caused by a whirlwind, resembling a ‘twister’ that passed through his farm Klipkolk, west of Rietfontein in May 2005. This was the first time in living memory such strong winds have passed through the region.260 Hard hailstorms, causing extensive damage are also becoming commonplace at all the wrong times of the year. Mr Gert Becker of the farm Stellaland, north of Upington, is convinced that there is an increase in the intensity of winds. In recent years these winds have tended to be prolific in September-October. For him this is a firm indication of climate change.261

Picture 11: Damage caused by what locals describe as a ‘twister cyclone’ that hit the farm

259 TOA: Interview with Mr Cornelius Johannes (Kerneels) Nortjé (66), Perseel 626, Opwag Groblershoop, Afdeling Kenhardt, district Gordonia, 2008.08.28. 260 TOA Oral archive, Interview H Bott (60), P Willemse (63), R Beukes (33), D Beukes (57) and M Kooitjies 61), Klipkolk 2008.11.30. 261 TOA: Interview Gert Frederick Dirk Becker (63), Plaas Stellaland, Distrik Gordonia, 2008.08.24.

Klipkolk, to the west of Philandersbron and Rietfontein in the Northern Cape.262

Mr George Barnard, a livestock farmer who pursues the principles of holistic farming practice, maintains that the plant life on his farm Witboom has increased by 18,7 per cent since 2001. He is of the opinion that it is the direct result of his approach to safeguard his land from over-use by livestock.264 It may also be a product of changing climatic conditions. Regardless of his advanced scientific knowledge, he also reads the environment and resorts back to indigenous knowledge if and when it is required by circumstances. For example, he has noticed that the tortoise population, primarily small ones, have increased on his land.265

262 Photograph kindly provided by Mr H. Bott. 263 Photograph kindly provided by Mr H. Bott. 264 TOA: Interview with Mr George Ehlers Barnard (46), Koedoestraat 20, Upington, 2008.08.25. 265 TOA: Interview with Mr George Ehlers Barnard (46), Koedoestraat 20, Upington, 2008.08.25.

The Beckers on the farm Stellaland believe that when the puffadders start roaming and become very visible, rain would be on the way. They tend to migrate from low-lying land to parts that are on a higher elevation.266 On Stellaland, there has also in recent years been an increase in the population of black mambas. In former times they were common in the Molopo region. It now appears as if they have started migrating.267

There is also the belief that when the korhaan starts breeding rain is approaching.268 Termites are considered, by some farmers, as firm indicators of rain. Many termite watchers tend to break open their mounds on the western side. They then observe if the termites’ wings have started growing. Once the wings start growing it is clear that there is rain on the way.269 Mr Gert Becker studies the food carriers amongst the termites. Once they start carrying food supplies to the mound he is convinced that rain is on the way. This usually coincides with a decrease in the northern wind.270 He still uses this strategy, despite modern weather predictions that is broadcast on radio and television. What makes him worried about the future, is that on the farm Stellaland there are no longer signs of lightning in the west to tell when the rains are coming.271

According to one irrigation farmer at Aughrabies, the quality of the Orange River water has locally deteriorated. Local farmers are of the opinion that the pH-balance is too high.272 One farmer stated that the situation of deteriorating water quality has affected their crops the past five years. The blame is placed on the water storage dams. 273 He explained that as the water is given the opportunity to stand still in the dams. The hot sun then increases the algae and the water turns rotten. The farmer is also of the opinion that too little water is washed down in the river. This has the effect that the

266 TOA: Interview Gert Frederick Dirk Becker (63), Plaas Stellaland, Distrik Gordonia, 2008.08.24. 267 TOA: Interview Gert Frederick Dirk Becker (63), Plaas Stellaland, Distrik Gordonia, 2008.08.24. 268 TOA: Interview Gert Frederick Dirk Becker (63), Plaas Stellaland, Distrik Gordonia, 2008.08.24. 269 TOA: Interview Gert Frederick Dirk Becker (63), Plaas Stellaland, Distrik Gordonia, 2008.08.24. 270 TOA: Interview Gert Frederick Dirk Becker (63), Plaas Stellaland, Distrik Gordonia, 2008.08.24. 271 TOA: Interview Gert Frederick Dirk Becker (63), Plaas Stellaland, Distrik Gordonia, 2008.08.24. 272 TOA: Interview Felix Theunis Visser (57), Plot 686, Augrabies, 2008.08.27. 273 TOA: Interview Felix Theunis Visser (57), Plot 686, Augrabies, 2008.08.27.

river bed does not get the opportunity to be rinsed clean.274 Finally, livestock farmers currently face serious problems with gnats (Afrikaans: “muggies”). In the vicinity of Aughrabies, gnats are known to have prevented sheep from approaching drinking water along the riverbanks. The gnats penetrate the eyes of sheep, causing them to stop eating275, and ultimately die.276 Similar conditions tend to prevail in Upington277. Should temperatures rise, the gnat as well as mosquito population could increase accordingly. At present there is still not an effective control measure. The DoA has adapted to the increase in the mosquito and gnats in the summer period by emptying the channels for periods of time in order to kills the larvae. This process is widely known in the Upington area in Afrikaans as the ”muggie afsitter” [Direct English translation: “gnat switch”]278.

8.4.8 Internal migratory trends: farm and urban nodes

As a result of the increasing availability of efficient personal transport, farmers, ever since the start of the twentieth century have resorted to a duality in terms of domestic accommodation. In the nineteenth century, it was customary for farmers to have a house in the nearby town and a house on the farm. The town house would be used whenever the family visited the town for the purposes of doing essential shopping, seeing to administrative maters with the government offices in the urban centre, and attending activities of a religious nature, such as the quarterly gatherings of the church where children would be baptized, accepted as members of the congregation, or marriages would be concluded.279

In interviews conducted with a number of farmers it was evident that many no longer

274 TOA: Interview Felix Theunis Visser (57), Plot 686, Augrabies, 2008.08.27. 275 VNOA: Interview Kobus Lategan, Department of Agriculture, Upington, 2008.08.26. 276 TOA: Interview Felix Theunis Visser (57), Plot 686, Augrabies, 2008.08.27. 277 VNOA: Interview Kobus Lategan, Department of Agriculture, Upington, 2008.08.26. 278 VNOA: Interview Kobus Lategan, Department of Agriculture, Upington, 2008.08.26. 279 One facet of this interesting phenomenon is discussed in considerable detail in B Booyens, Nagmaalsnaweek deur die jare: ‘n kerk-historiese studie, (NG Kerkuitgwers, Kaapstad, 1982).

spend extended periods of time on their farms, especially when the land is located an extensive distance from town home.280 At the time of the August 2008-fieldwork, respondents explained how difficult it was for them to travel on roads that were not well kept and constantly in a state of deterioration.281 They also commented on the high cost of transport. It was at a time of exceedingly high fuel costs. Indications are that the cost of fuel, a source of major carbon dioxide emissions, is bound to increase in due course again. Given these two factors, as well as the problem of safety and security, attention should perhaps be given to the introduction of a form of coordinated group transport to outlying farming nodes. The existing state of affairs represents a form of labour migration, or labour commuting (if the duration of stay is limited to one day or less). It may be possible for the participants in a transport consolidation process to work together and organize amongst themselves what type of arrangement would suit all the best.

Should a more generic form of transport and related communications facilities be introduced, it may, in time to come be viable for local farmers to settle permanently in urban nodes. This could then alleviate certain strategic aspects of mitigating climate change, for example in aspects of the provision of certain forms of water infrastructure. Given the fact that water is increasingly becoming a finite natural resource conservation strategies should be applied as far as possible.

8.4.9 Hidden benefits of climate change: power supply

The 2003 State of the Environment Report282 on the Northern Cape indicates that the Northern Cape is the leading province in South Africa when it comes to the use or renewable energy. The report indicates the 0.2% of the population uses solar energy

280 TOA: Interview Willem Hendrik Minaar Barnard (85), Chala Ann Woonstelle, Nr 3, Upington, 2008.08.25; TOA: Interview Mr BJ Snyders (53), Namibieweg 146, Rietfontein, 2008.12.01; Interview Gert Frederick Dirk Becker (63), Plaas Stellaland, Distrik Gordonia, 2008.08.24; Interview with Mr George Ehlers Barnard (46), Koedoestraat 20, Upington, 2008.08.25. 281 TOA: Interview with Mr George Ehlers Barnard (46), Koedoestraat 20, Upington, 2008.08.25. 282 R Oosthuizen and J John, Northern Cape: State of the Environment Report 2004, Atmosphere and Climate Specialist Report, 2005, Congella: CSIR Environmentek.

for cooking, 0.15% for heating and 1% for lighting283. Although these percentages are negligible in terms of the bigger picture in South Africa it is an indication that the province is aware of the benefits of solar energy.

With the increasing demand on electricity in an economically growing South Africa, Eskom has identified the possible implementation of Concentrating Solar Power technology in the Northern Cape284. The Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies have been identified as being potentially viable and capable of being employed on a large scale. The Northern Cape has an excellent solar resource when compared to other areas of the world considered suitable for concentrating solar power generation.285

Picture 13: An example of a Concentrating Solar Power Plant286

283 R Oosthuizen and J John, Northern Cape: State of the Environment Report 2004, Atmosphere and Climate Specialist Report, 2005, Congella: CSIR Environmentek. 284 ESKOM Environmental Impact Assessment Report, “Proposed Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Plant and associated infrastructure in the Northern Cape Area”, Briefing Paper, March 2006, www.eskom.co.za/content/BID_Final_English230306.pdf (Accessed: 2008.02.23). 285 ESKOM Environmental Impact Assessment Report, “Proposed Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Plant and associated infrastructure in the Northern Cape Area”, Briefing Paper, March 2006, www.eskom.co.za/content/BID_Final_English230306.pdf (Accessed: 2008.02.23). 286 Photograph credit: NREL

8.5 Floods and the George region

In contrast to the inhabitants of the Northern Cape Kalahari, those resident in the George area of the Western Cape, tend to have a much greater concern for the potential of increased floods287. For many years successive generations of residents in the Southern Cape have been exposed to floods and severe rainfall. For many it forms part of a lifestyle in an environment, which is, as a rule, amenable to human settlement. However, there is a prolific record of floods in the Southern Cape. There seems to be consensus amongst locals that ‘freaky’ weather conditions are on the increase. Ms. Lynne Thompson, an avid researcher, hobby historian and voluntary archivist at the George Museum has spent two years compiling a record of flood events in the Southern Cape. The local knowledge of residents about the climatic conditions, like that in the Northern Cape, is sophisticated and it is apparent that much thought and observation has gone into their perceptions. However, the manner in which the knowledge has been accumulated and processed, is slight different.288 In her compilation of a chronological list of floods and damage it becomes evident that parts of the larger region have frequently been subject to hazardous impacts and disaster. At the same time, also the residents of this region seem to have a specific type of resilience. They tend to rebuild and then continue to lead their lives as if nothing has happened.

George is separated from the Little Karoo by the Outeniqua Mountains, which contribute to the cooler and wetter conditions enjoyed along the South Cape Coast. George also lies between two climate zones, the Cape Mediterranean with its winter rainfall and the temperate summer rainfall area from Port Elizabeth. Rain can occur all year round and since 1878 when the gaol warden submitted the first official records, many other Georgians have kept their own weather records as a hobby. Various people at different points recorded rainfall measurements in the years that followed.

Local knowledge of the climate in George owes much to the interests and continued

287 CMOA: Gerhard Otto, 2009.02.16; Henry Hill, 2009.02.16 288 The text which appears in an edited format is based on information contained in L Thompson, “Report on rainfall and flood events in the George area of the Southern Cape.” Dated 30 December 2008. Ms Thompson was assisted in the processing of the statistical data by Mr Chris Mackay, another volunteer at the George Museum.

attention given to the matter by Charles Owen Sayers (1898-1986), a native of George, editor for 46 years of the local newspaper and the first curator of the local museum.289 Charlie Sayers in many of his newspaper columns over the years gave prominence to discussions on trends in the local climate. Perhaps the greatest contribution of his knowledge of the weather is a chart of the rainfall in George between 1880 and 1980, published in his book Looking back on George: a medley of musings and memories.290

Sayers attempted to collate a number of sets of data to provide a more realistic and complete record for the town. The figures clearly showed the variation in rainfall between the coast and the mountains. It is uncertain if he had access to primary sources and only his summary graphs were archived in the George Museum. Sayers submitted data to the South African Weather Service for a period up to 1978. The George Airport became the official weather station for the area in 1977, but, being near the coast, these figures are not comparative for the George central area.

The George Museum Archives contain copies of The Herald newspaper, with different mastheads, from 1878 to date.291 Research has been ongoing on floods for the full period and cross-checks have identified many clerical, statistical and conversion errors in data submitted to the Weather Office.292 According to the available data there seems to have been an increase in the average rainfall, measured over 10 periods for the period 1878-2007 the following picture emerges.

289 Anon., “Sayers, Kimpton” in George Herald, 1986.11.27; George Museum, Sayers’ file: clippings): R Cairncross, “The Sayers family” in Bulletin, No. 15, March 1985. 290 CO Sayers, A medley of musings and memories (Herald Phoenix (Pty) Ltd, George, 1982). 291 The devastating floods of August 2006 once again highlighted the public and press interest in weather records. Chris MacKay and Lynne Thompson, volunteers in the George Museum Archive Library, began the project of bringing Sayers’s rainfall records up to date in an attempt to establish a set of comparable records for a gap of almost 20 years. Searching through the archives, It soon became apparent that others had failed previous attempts. A number of sets of data has been found for the area as well as the 100 year graphs produced by Sayers. 292 Currently the rainfall research and revisions form part of project for a Weather Exhibit at the George Museum. The display will include graphs and images relating to extreme weather conditions in the area. Data collated during the research will be available to the public.

Figure 5: Average annual rainfall in mm in 10 period 1878-2007 (George)

The data then suggests that over a period of 130 years the average rainfall has been 884mm. Moreover, there seems to be a significant upward trend in annual rainfall from 1978 to 2007. If the average rainfall is spread out over periods of 20 years, the changing trend of more rains tends to become clearer. The following graphs explains it.

Figure 6: Rainfall in 20-year periods 1888-2007 (George)

Figure 7: Average 30-year periods per month of rainfall in George (measured in mm)

8.5.1 Floods

In recent years the debate around climate change has focused extensively on the intense occurrence of floods in the Southern Cape. From the perspective of disaster risk reduction it has become relevant. Research has identified 65 flood events from 1878 to 2007 and one reference to the “Great Flood of 1750” in newspaper reports. There have possibly been others, which were never reported. The early years did not always cover damage incurred and weather news in the editions of the local and regional newspapers often made way for other important news items as a result of space constraints. A century and more ago, damage reported was generally to the unpaved wagon routes and road, passes, flooded drifts, cart or wagons washed away in attempted crossings, and loss of livestock and crops by the farmers. In 1905, the major event was when the Moeder Kerk in George lost its bell tower. Even today this is considered to have been probably the most severe rainstorm in living memory. At least 200 houses were destroyed. These structures, primarily of daub sods, were unable to withstand the severity of running water and incessant rain.293 Especially the poor people of the region suffered mostly as a result of the destruction that had been caused.294

293 Anon., “Disastrous floods: great damage at George” in George and Knysna Herald, 1905.09.20, p. 2. (No printed [page numbers in newspaper file.) 294 Anon., “Disastrous floods: great damage at George” in George and Knysna Herald, 1905.09.20, p. 2. (No printed [page

On 4 and 5 May 1916 the Southwestern districts of the Western Cape were once again in the middle of heavy weather when parts of George and Knysna experienced severe rains. The bridge between Knysna and George, completed at a cost of 14 000 pounds, was destroyed and traffic between the two urban centres ground to a halt.295 The extent of the damage that had been caused by the rains had the local newspaper calling for government support, especially for the farmers who had suffered extensive damages.296 In these early years, wooden bridges were built across drifts and succumbed to raging rivers. The increase in damage can be related to the increase in population and construction of roads, passes, railways and housing developments. All mountain passes were then, as they are now, vulnerable at times of flood and few escape damage. The Kaaimans Pass and the George to Knysna railway line have been particularly prone to landslides, rock falls and subsidence, which occur at the same points in varying degrees with every flood.

If snowfall is anything to go by, the suggestion is that clear indications of climate change have been evident in George since the 1970s. On 17 August 1972, the regional newspaper, Het Suidwestern reported on the first snow in 65 years to fall in George. For the greater part of the weekend local residents, after the snow dissipated in George, travelled out to the Langkloof where a blanket of white snow of up to 500 mm still covered the ground.297 Nine years later, in July 1981 there once again appeared an article in the local media in which the ‘weird’ weather was held responsible for snowfall on the mountain ranges in the area around George.298 There were also indications, already at that time that 1981 was going to be the wettest year in the twentieth century for George. In July the annual rainfall was only 192mm short of the record of 1248mm of the record year 1905.299 Readers of the newspaper were taken

numbers in newspaper file.) 295 Anon., ”Heavy rains in the S.W. districts: Destruction of the Knysna bridge” in The George and Knysna Herald, 1916.05.10, p. 2. 296 Anon., “The recent floods: need for national relief” n George and Knysna Herald, 1916.07.17, p. 2. 297 Het Suidwestern reporter, “George has its first snow in 65 years” in Het Suidwestern, 1972.08.17, (No page in archive file). 298 Anon., “Weird weather year” in The Outeniqualander, 1981.07.09. 299 Anon., “Weird weather year” in The Outeniqualander, 1981.07.09.

up by the rainfall trends in George after the editor had published data on the period 1900 to 1925.300 One reader, Mr RBL Tindall submitted a graph in which he worked from the monthly average rainfall over a period of 10 years, between 1973 to 1981. A notable feature was the consistent upward trend of monthly rainfall, when it was expressed in cumulative figures over periods of a decade.301

Eleven years later, in 1992 there was a cunning repeat of ‘freak’ snow weather with snow falling as low as 900m above sea level.302 At the time the local emergency services responded to an accident in the mountains when a car crashed 500m down the Outeniqua cliffs, near the town. Two of the seven people in the light delivery truck were killed instantaneously and a third died in hospital shortly afterwards.303 A month earlier a motorist was killed, also under extreme weather conditions, after his vehicle crashed 80 m down the cliffs of the pass.304

In 2005-6 the December holidays along the Southern Cape Coast were severely curtailed by stormy weather and heavy rains. At the time, there were indications that the extreme weather conditions were the result of a series of coastal lows that drifted into the interior and wreaked havoc. In a report, compiled by a team of researchers from the North-West University, as well as a report by the University of Cape Town305 it was suggests that attention be given to the issue of climate change. Indications were that the climate conditions were becoming more extreme.306

300 Anon., “1905 rain record in sight” in Die Oudtshoorn Courant en het Suid-Western, 1981.08.26, p. 13. 301 RBL Tindall – Editor, “Seasonal figures” in Die Oudtshoorn Courant and Het Suid-Western, 1981.09.04, p. 5. See particularly the graph. 302 Anon., “Swaarste sneeu in 11 jaar” in George Herald, 1992.08.03, p. 1. 303 P Lourens, “Redpoging in snerpende koue: drie dood in bergdrama” in George Herald, 1992.08.13, p. 3. 304 P Lourens, “Redpoging in snerpende koue: drie dood in bergdrama” in George Herald, 1992.08.13, p. 3; Anon., “Man oorleef val van meer as 80 meter” in George Herald, 1992. 07.02, p. 6. 305 Disaster Mitigation for Sustainable Livelihoods Programme (DiMP), March 2003 Cut-off Low: Consolidated Report. Department of Social Services and Poverty Alleviation of the Provincial Government of the Western Cape. Cape Town: University of Cape Town.

306 CM Gouws, K Reyneke, JWN Tempelhoff, ES van Eeden, D van Niekerk, and R Wuriga, The floods of December 2004- January 2005 in the Garden Route region of the Southern Cape, South Africa, (Report for the Research Focus Area 7.2, North-West University, CVanderbnijlpark Campus, 2005).

At the end of November 2007 the coastal region of the Western Cape was severely hit by stormy weather. In the southern Cape Coastal region damages were estimated to be in the vicinity of more than R631 million. Parts of the Eden district were affected by the storm. In George 550 people were housed in community halls and many more were handed food parcels.307 There were fears among some residents in the Langvlei region that their water had been contaminated, possibly by ground water from a local cemetery and possibly also sewage from a SANParks housing settlement.308 In the media it was reported that especially people in informal settlements were severely affected by the extreme climatic conditions. According to Mr Gerhard Otto chief of disaster risk management at Eden District it was particularly traumatic to witness the suffering of these people during the disaster. He told the media that the even could have a psychologically harmful effect on children who had been forced four times, since 2003, to flee from tidal waves.309 In September 2008 swells of up to 9m, close to the coastline, were part of a combination of factors, such as the springtide, storms out at sea and storm winds that wreaked havoc in many parts of the province.310

YEAR DAY MONTH DURATION mm 1992 16 10 1 day 102 1992 12 11 1 hr 76 1993 23 9 4 day 201 1994 2 8 2 day 99 1995 29 11 2 day 173 1996 21 11 6 day 335 2003 24 3 2 day 287 2003 10 5 2 hrs 73 307 2004 22 12 3/4 hr 243 P Lourens, “Flood damages set at R630-m” in George Herald, 2007.12.13, p. 7. 308 2005 14 1 90 min 90 P Lourens, “Flood vicims full of praise: they were heroes, all of them” in Georgher Herald, 2007.12.06, p. 2. 309 2006 1 8 3 day 378 P Lourens, “So far damages set at R500-million: Floods ravage S Cape” in George Herald, 2007.11.29, p. 2. 2007 22 11 3 day 539 310 L da Silva, “Suid-Kaap steier onder stromweer: heerlike lente?” in George Herald, 2008.08.04, pp. 1-2.

Table 1: Frequency of Floods in the George Area over the past 15 years

There appears to be just cause for concern as the first decade in the new millennium is incomplete. It is difficult to form an impression of the material losses and the human suffering caused by floods over the years in the vicinity of George and surroundings. Furthermore, there is a concern that if the necessary mitigating measures are not taken, conditions would worsen.

The complex pattern of climate change that emerges is contained in the following table that provides some information on the amount of rainfall experienced since 1878. There seems to be, in recent years, an increase in the severity of rainfall events311.

311 CMOA: Henry Hill, 2009.02.16; Gerhard Otto, 2009.02.16

YEAR DAY MONTH PERIOD mm AREAS AFFECTED 2007 21 11 3 day 539 Caledon to St Francis & Langklood 1931 12 4 day 478 Southern to Eastern Cape 2006 1 8 3 day 378 Southern Cape to East London 1905 9 3 day 358 Garden Route 1867 11 350 Southern Cape (Great Brak)

1996 21 11 6 day 335 Southern Cape 2003 24 3 2 day 287 George 1954 27 8 3 day 273 Southern Cape 1885 5 36 hr 262 Southern Cape

1908 6 3 day 255 Southern Cape 1964 14 9 5 day 251 Garden Route 1925 9 3 day 247 Garden Route 2004 22 12 3/4 hr 243 Southern Cape 1981 28 8 7 day 240 Southern Cape 1928 11 3 day 225 Garden Route 1981 23 1 3 day 224 Southern Cape (Laingsburg)

1962 20 8 3 day 222 Southern Cape 1993 23 9 4 day 201 George 1981 28 5 2 day 182 Southern Cape 1965 21 11 2 day 178 Southern Cape 1905 8 10 7 day 175 Southern Cape 1995 29 11 2 day 173 George 1916 3 5 2 day 165 Southern-Eastern Cape, Longkloof

1977 5 4 day 160 Garden Route 1903 11 4 day 152 George 1891 6 2 day 149 George 1913 9 1 day 146 Southern Cape 1951 1 1 day 146 Garden Route 1904 24 2 1 day 145 George 1953 18 10 3 day 145 George 1889 12 3 day 139 Southern Cape 1935 5 1 day 136 Garden Route 1906 14 12 4 day 132 Southern Cape

1959 3 11 2 day 132 Garden Route 1902 9 1 day 127 George 1902 19 2 1 day 126 Southern Cape 1935 11 2 day 124 Garden Route 1905 3 1 day 121 George

Table 2: Major

Floods in George area - 1878 to 2007312 The major argument was that there was insufficient climate data available. As local knowledge is more integrated with global media information, readily available in media, such as the internet, television, radio and television, there is much more understanding for the likelihood of potential climate change. One respondent explained that in former times farmers would studiously take note of the local weather and then occasionally correlate it with weather forecasts on the radio. Now, instead of relying extensively on the weather pattern they would merely watch the television weather forecasts. They would then accordingly adjust to the expected weather conditions.313

8.6 Agriculture practices in George region

According to Mr Hannes Muller of the Western Cape Provincial Department of Land Care, inappropriate agricultural practices in the Eden District are amplifying the effects of flooding in the region314. In recent years farmers have started with intense farming practices on flood plains because of the adequate water supply and fertile land these flood plains provide315. Unfortunately, agricultural prosperity has taken a hefty toll on the natural environment, especially on river systems. The two agricultural practices that have caused the most damage to the river systems are the removal of the palmiet grass (Prionium serrata) that grew next to rivers and the building of barriers within the river path316.

Usually palmiet grass together with the peet ground on which it grows serves as a sponge during times of intense flooding. It absorbs excess water and then slowly

312 Sources consulted: The George Phoenix: 1869-1871; George & Knysna Herald: 1881-1923; George Herald Het Suid Western: 1954-1964; The Herald, George & Knysna: 1964-1969; South Western Herald 1969-1979; The Phoenix Herald: 1979- 1982: The 313 George Herald, Outeniqualander: 1982-1986; The George Herald Het Suid Western 1986; The George Herald incorporating Het Suid Western: 1986 to date. TOA: Interview with Mr Cornelius Johannes (Kerneels) Nortjé (66), Perseel 626, Opwag Groblershoop, Afdeling Kenhardt, district Gordonia, 2008.08.28. 314 CMOA: Hannes Muller, 2009.02.17 315 CMOA: Hannes Muller, 2009.02.17 316 CMOA: Hannes Muller, 2009.02.17

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releases the excess water in order to stimulate natural life317. In many areas farmers have removed the palmiet grass and replaced it with Black Wattle (Acacia mearnsii) which was imported from Australia. These Black Wattle trees were planted to drain the flood plains of water, thereby enabling farmers to use the fertile land provided by the flood plains.

Picture 14: Palmiet grass (Prionium serrata)318

Farmers have also built barriers within the river course. These barriers were built to keep water out of the farmlands319. Unfortunately these barriers have caused both an increase in water levels and water speeds320. With these increased water levels and

317 CMOA: Hannes Muller, 2009.02.17

318 Photograph credit: DL Nickrent ([email protected]), at http://131.230.176.4/cgi- bin/dol/dol_image_frame.pl?image_id=10098&image_file=http://131.230.176.4/users /paraman1/3_11_08_4/SA11Mar08Hor3/4744prioniumserratum.jpg, 2006, [ref. SIU10098]. (Accessed: 2009.02.27). 319 CMOA: Hannes Muller, 2009.02.17 320 CMOA: Hannes Muller, 2009.02.17

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speeds the water causes 64 times more damage to the watercourse than it usually does321. Therefore rivers deepen and widen quicker than they naturally did. With this increased widening and deepening of watercourses the Black Wattle trees, that are planted next to the rivers get uprooted, leaving large craters that lead to increased erosion322. Furthermore the remains of the Black Wattle along with extra sediment get washed down stream causing blockages thereby increasing the likelihood and impacts of flooding323.

Picture 15: The Black Wattle tree (Acacia mearnsii)324.

According to Mr Muller there is good legislation in place to regulate the activities of farmers in sensitive areas like flood plains, but unfortunately authorities do not enforce these laws consequently325.

321 CMOA: Hannes Muller, 2009.02.17 322 CMOA: Hannes Muller, 2009.02.17 323 CMOA: Hannes Muller, 2009.02.17 324 Photo credit: Starr, F. & Starr, K. Acacia Mearnsii. USGS, at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Acacia_mearnsii.jpg, (Accessed: 2009.02.27). 325 CMOA: Hannes Muller, 2009.02.17

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9. CONCLUSION

Disaster risk reduction, sustainable settlement planning and conscious local (urban and rural) adaptation is essential in mitigating climate change, as well as reducing vulnerabilities. Climate change will have a significant impact on the development of generations to come. This report aimed to provide past, present and future perspective on the possible impact of climate change on the rural and urban areas of George and Upinton. In attempting to understand and report on the complexities of climate change and their contribution to possible disaster risks, a grounding in the philosophy and theory of sustainable development was given. Emphasis was placed on the development of urban centres in South Africa in order to ascertain their unknowing contribution to climate change and heightened vulnerability. The two local municipalities of George and //Khara Hais were used as the research field and it was found that there are striking differences in their understanding, and mitigation of the consequences of climate change. Particular attention was given to the communities most at risk of the consequences of climate change and in doing so various adaptation mechanisms, as well as disaster risk heightening activities, were identified. Lastly the report aimed to provide possible future adaptation strategies, which the population of George and Upington needs to consider, should the grim future predictions of climate change in these regions become true.

The research found that despite the obvious changes in the climate in both George Local Municipality and //Khara Hais Local Municipality, climate change and its impact on business, agriculture, tourism and the built environment are not specifically addressed in any of the strategic planning documentation. In the Urban Planning departments, disaster management plans are treated as an annexure to the Integrated Development Plan, and nothing more. Often disaster risk reduction is left to the ‘environmental people’ and it is not treated as a multi-sectoral issue. There is no analysis of the present effects of climate change on the environment, nor predictions on future climate change implications for the local or district municipalities. Though risk assessments may have been done by the disaster management centres, these assessments are not integrated into development plans or decision-making, nor is

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disaster risk management seem as a multi-disciplinary responsibility. The spatial development frameworks do not reflect and monitor hazard and vulnerability factors. There is no iteration between or integration of urban poverty eradication, disaster risk reduction and urban development strategies in George or //Khara Hais. Sustainable development is advocated in the spatial development frameworks of the respective municipalities, but no link has been made to climate change adaptation and/or mitigation. The discourse on sustainable development in the planning strategies remains theoretical devoid of a concrete implementation strategy. It was found that disaster risk reduction in general, and climate change specifically, remains sophisticated rhetoric not yet institutionalised within the practice of decision-making in the two South African local municipalities of George and //Khara Hais.

10. RECOMMENDATIONS

In order to adequately address the dynamic challenges of climate change interventions at various levels are necessary. The following section will provide recommendations for the following categories: the National Disaster Management Centre, local and district municipalities including disaster risk management centres and development planners, communities including farmers and other role-players.

10.1 Recommendations to the National Disaster Management Centre

 The research has indicated that issues of climate change need urgent and immediate attention. It is recommended that the NDMC urgently appoint a knowledgeable and dedicated scientist which can serve as a climate change focal point between the NDMC, national and provincial sector departments as well as local government.  The NDMC, in conjunction with the Department of Water and the Environment must appoint a special task team of the NDMAF on climate change consisting of climate change scientists which can adequately advise the NDMC on issues relating to the assessment of climate change related disaster risks and the possible impact of climate change on the disaster risk management landscape in

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South and southern Africa.  A national disaster risk assessment must be conducted to determine the present and future threats from climate change which in turn can inform provincial and local government planning.  The NDMC must include the issue of climate change as a standing agenda point of the National Disaster Management Advisory Forum in order to create an awareness of the challenges and to facilitate inter-disciplinary discussion and collaboration.  The NDMC must lobby Cabinet though the Intergovernmental Committee on Disaster Management to seriously consider climate change as a real and urgent threat which significantly influences the South African disaster risk profile.  The NDMC must provide guidelines to provincial and local governmental entities as to the process of integrating climate change related issues into their disaster risk management plans.  NDMC/ DPLG to actively participate on the National Committee on Climate Change (NCCC) and Intergovernmental Committee on Climate Change (IGCCC) meetings to strengthen communication within government structures and make sure that climate change issues at local levels are been addressed.

10.2 Recommendations to local and district municipalities

 National and international disaster risk reduction requirements must be translated into local initiatives with a concrete agenda and budget allocation for implementation.  Provincial and local disaster risk assessment must be conducted to determine the present and future threats from climate change, and specific, contextualised strategies should be formulated and integrated with the Growth and Development Strategy, Spatial Development Framework and Integrated Development Plans These strategies and plans should again inform disaster risk reduction strategies;  Sustainable development must be advocated in strategic planning, and concrete

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plans for compact cities, densification, mixed land-use developments, and infill development, that integrate land-use and transport planning, improve energy sufficiency, reduce the need to travel and promote renewable energy;  Land-use management measures that strive to reduce the vulnerabilities of poor communities must be introduced. Measures include stricter limits on development in hazardous areas (fault zones; flood planes, hillsides prone to slippage), building regulations that ensure resilient buildings and infrastructure that can maintain essential services when a natural hazard occurs, and environmentally sustainable land-use and development be practised with respect to deforestation of hillsides and the protection of wetlands;  Though climate change mitigation and adaptation should be integrated with other strategies, a dedicated person at district municipalities should monitor and report on initiatives, otherwise it will be pushed from the agenda by more pressing issues such as housing and service delivery;  Local and District councils must set the example by reducing their operational impact on the environment. They should strive for zero-emission civic centres, reduce the production of waste, and promote recycling.  More awareness of climate change vulnerability and disaster risk reduction be created through marketing, communication and training.  Local and district municipalities must consider the implementation of greener technologies in all future development planning such as methane capturing, bio- digesters, solar energy, recycling, environmental friendly housing developments etc.  Although the need for disaster risk management structures and capacity is called for in both policy and legislation, it remains an underfunded and even ignored function. Similarly, the research has found that most government does not see climate change mitigation and adaptation as their responsibility. District and local municipalities must take disaster risk management seriously and show commitment through proper budget and skills allocation.  The Siyanda District Municipality must critically assess their current disaster risk management capacities and speed up the process of new appointments in order to adhere to the basic requirements of the Disaster Management Act and NDMF.

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 Local and district municipalities must urgently conduct research of the possible impact of climate change on local economic growth and job security.  The Eden District Municipality must commission research into the changing vulnerability profile of river-mouths and coastal towns in the district due to climate change.  The George Local Municipality must critically consider the impact of all new development of coastal areas in terms of their destabilising effect on the environment and the possible impact of climate change on such developments.  The //Khara Hais Local Municipality must investigate the maintenance and carrying capacity of the storm water system in Upington in order to ascertain future impact of above average rainfall.  The local and district municipalities must utilise and record indigenous knowledge present in their municipalities as possible migration actions.

10.3 Recommendations for communities and farmers

 Local communities must proactively become involved during planning processes in identifying local resources instrumental in disaster risk reduction and early warning systems.  Attention should be given to the introduction of a form of coordinated group transport to outlying farming nodes in the Siyanda District Municipality.  In the face of imminent increased climate change livestock farmers in the Upington region should consider changing over to game farming.  In the Siyanda District Municipality, regulations governing the registration as fodder producer should be implemented more rigorously. This would entail that all farmers planning to plant and harvest lucerne (instead of cotton) must register as such a producer. This will provide more predictable long-term estimates for all the other role-players in the different crop value chains.  The possible impact of climate change will require adapting the general management of agriculture.  Residents and businesses do not build environmentally-friendly buildings for it is more expensive in the short-term but much more beneficial in the long-term. Communities and private individuals should consider the benefits of utilising

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environmentally-friendly buildings techniques.  Farmers in the Upington area must consider the possibility of alternative crops such as figs, granites, and Hoodia Gordonii.  Farmers might also need to consider the use of organic farming methods and implement best farming practices.  Farmers in the Siyana District Municipality must consider alternative irrigation methods. Micro- and drip irrigation will have to be used which will have obvious financial implications. Alternatively “within-row” irrigation must also be considered. The implementation of the latter will greatly depend on the use of water pumps with their resulting dependency on the electrical grid.  The notion of substituting 50% of the current crops (e.g. grapes) with a non- food based crop (such as the castor bean plant - ricinus communis) for the production of oil, which can be used for the production of biodiesel, must be considered.  In the George region, palmiet grass together with the peet ground on which it grows serves as a sponge during times of intense flooding. It absorbs excess water and then slowly releases the excess water in order to stimulate natural life. Farmers must be ancouraged to conserve the palmiet grass.

10.4 Recommendations to other role-players

 Eskom must speed up the implementation of Concentrating Solar Power technology in the Northern Cape.

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ORAL ARCHIVES

Coetzee Maartens Oral Archive (CMOA)

CMOA: Interview Mr. Henry Hill, Manager Properties Eden District Municipalities, George, 2009.02.16

CMOA: Interview Mr. Gerhard Otto, Head of Disaster Management Eden District Municipalities, George, 2009.02.16

CMOA: Interview Mr. Hannes Muller, Cape Provincial Department of Land Care, George, 2009.02.17

CMOA: Interview Mr. Stiaan Caarstens, Chief Town Planner George Local Municipality, George, 2009.02.17

CMOA: Interview Ms. Lorrain McGibbon, Head Eco-Schools project, George, 2009.02.17

Faling Oral Archive (FOA):

FOA: Interview with Neels Heydenrich. CEO: Realty 1, Bilo’s Bistro and Pub Restaurant, Keidebees Street, Upington. 2008.11.30.

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FOA: Interview with James de Monk. Head: Disaster Management, //Khara Hais Local Municipality, c/o Swartmodder and Dekota roads, Upington. 2008.12.01.

FOA: Interview with Conrad Geldenhuys. Head: Planning and IDP, //Khara Hais Local Municipality, Civic Centre, Mutual Street, Upington. 2008.12.01.

FOA: Interview with Jeremy du Plessis. Department of Planning and IDP, //Khara Hais Local Municipality, Civic Centre, Mutual Street, Upington. 2008.12.01.

FOA: Interview with Len Fourie. Consultant, Macroplan, 4 Murray Avenue, Upington. 2008.12.01.

FOA: Interview with Lesley & John Nugent. CEO: Upington Chamber of Commerce, 18 Schroder Street, Upington. 2008.12.01.

FOA: Interview with Francois Fouchè. Head: Santam branch Upington, 60 Market Street, Upington, 2008.12.02.

FOA: Interview with Itumeleng Thatelo. Manager: IDP, Siyanda District Municipality, c/o Hill and Le Roux streets, Upington. 2008.12.02.

FOA: Interview with Dawie de Villiers. Western Cape Provincial Department of Agriculture: Land Care, Outeniqua Experimental Farm, Old Airport Road, George. 2008.12.03.

FOA: Interview with Willem de Kock. Consultant, WM De Kock and Associates, 123a Merriment Street, George. 2008.12.03.

FOA: Interview with Henry Hil. Manager: Environment and Property, Eden District Municipality, 54 York Street, George. 2008.12.04.

FOA: Interview with Colleen Till. CEO: George Business Chamber, 111 York Street,

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George. 2008.12.04

FOA: Interview with Stiaan Carstens. Chief Town Planner, George Local Municipality, Civic Centre, York Street, George. 2008.12.04.

FOA: Interview with Dr Machall Gratz. Senior Manager: Social Services, George Local Municipality, Civic Centre Clinic, York Street, George. 2008.12.05.

Tempelhoff Oral Archive (TOA):

TOA: Interview H Bott (60), P Willemse (63), R Beukes (33), D Beukes (57) and M Kooitjies 61), Klipkolk 2008.11.30.

TOA: Interview Gert Frederick Dirk Becker (63), Plaas Stellaland, Distrik Gordonia, 2008.08.24.

TOA: Interview Gert Frederick Dirk Becker (63), Plaas Stellaland, Distrik Gordonia, 2008.08.24. TOA: Interview with Mr George Ehlers Barnard (46), Koedoestraat 20, Upington, 2008.08.25.

TOA: Interview Mr Nicolaas Johannes (Nico) Toerien, Department of Agriculture and Land Reform, Upington, 2008.08.25.

TOA: Interview Anton Thomas (Div) de Villiers, Plot 61 Kanoneiland, Northern Cape, 2008.08.26.

TOA: Interview Felix Theunis Visser (57), Plot 686, Aughrabies, 2008.08.27.

TOA: Interview Mr Petrus Abel Elias (Pierre) Nel (66), Nel & Vennote Chartered Accountants, Upington, 2008.08.28.

TOA: Interview with Mr Cornelius Johannes (Kerneels) Nortjé (66), Perseel 626, Opwag

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Groblershoop, Afdeling Kenhardt, district Gordonia, 2008.08.28.

TOA: Interview Dawid du Plessis (65), Skepkolk, PO Box 95, Moer, 2008.12.01.

TOA: Interview Berend Jacobus Snyders (53) Namibieweg 146, Rietfontein, 2008.12.01.

TOA: Interview Ms Pauline Lourens, journalist and specialist in local climate change, George and Knysna Herald, George, 2008.12.04.

Van Niekerk Oral Archive (VNOA):

VNOA: Interview with R Snyders, Head of Siyanda District Municipality Disaster Management, 2008.25.08.

VNOA: Interview Felix Theunis Visser (57), Plot 686, Aughrabies, 2008.08.27

VNOA: Interview Kobus Lategan, Department of Agriculture, Upington, 2008.08.26.

VNOA: Fax communication with author: Kobus Lategan, Department of Agriculture, Upington, 2008.09.11.

VNOA: Interview Mr. Lategan, Manager: Corporate Serivices: Siyanda District Municipality, Upington, 2008.08.25; VNOA: Interview Gerhard Lottering, Roads: Siyanda District Municipality, 2008.08.25.

VNOA: Interview Theuns en Johan Botha, Plaas Spitskop, Upington, 2008.08.25.

VNOA: E-mail communication by Prof Dewald van Niekerk ([email protected]) with Prof. Bertus van Rooy ([email protected]), Research Chair: School of Languages, North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus and Prof Justus C Roux ([email protected]), Senior Researcher: Centre for Text Technology, North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus (2009.02.27).

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