- Insights ▷ October 2018

VOLUME 115 October - 2018

Global in a hyper-connected world

The eleventh edition of the World Policy Conference was held in , , from the 26th-28th of October 2018. Tobby Simon, the founder and president of Synergia Foundation, was one of the speakers at the eleventh edition of the World Policy Conference. He enunciated on the topic “ in a Hyper-Connected World” along with co panellist who included Virginie Robert – Chief Editor of the International desk, Les Echoes, Patrick Nicolet – Group

Toxic air Saudi’s suffocating Weakened New Delhi Position

Asia’s largest economy, , The latest revelations in Jamal has long had a reputation for Khashoggi’s murder at the smoggy skies. But these days, Saudi Arabian embassy seem to neighbouring India is fighting implicate those at the

Yemen Losing Fight activates Against election ‘war Famine room’ UN Humanitarian experts have The social media company is warned that Yemen faces the gearing up for the upcoming US world’s worst famine in 100 Mid-term elections by opening EU bans Brexit’s “Key single-use issues”

Plastic The UK and EU say key issues remain unresolved following The European Parliament has unscheduled Brexit talks in voted for a complete ban on a Brussels. On June 23rd, 2016, Britain range of single-use plastics across narrowly voted to leave 1 the union in a bid to stop the European Union - Insights ▷October 2018

world. ‘WannaCry’ Ransomware was a cyber-attack that targeted machines running the Microsoft Windows operating systems. This attack affected companies and individuals in more than 150 countries, including government agencies and large industrial entities. However, the narrative or the intent of these attacks are quite clear – in a connected world, the adversary has the ability to disrupt an industry or a critical infrastructure anywhere in the world.

According to Tobby, there is also a real threat of digital wildfires in a hyperconnected world. In 1938, when the radio had become widespread, thousands of Americans were confused due to an adaptation of the H.G Wells novel “The War of the Worlds”. As the adaptation showed news broadcasts and police stations had jammed telephones in a panic belief that the was invaded by the Martians. Tobby highlighted that the internet remains an unchartered, and a fast-evolving territory. Social media allows information to be transmitted around the world at Global governance in a breakneck speed. Due to the benefits that are well documented, the connected world could also witness a rapid spread of fake news and fake narratives. These are either intentional or unintentional, misleading or provocative but can have serious hyper-connected world consequences. The eleventh edition of the World Policy Conference was The chances of this happening are exponentially higher today than when the radio held in Rabat, Morocco, from the 26th-28th of October 2018. was introduced as a disruptive technology. Radio was a communication of one to many while the internet is that of many to many. Additionally, Tobby also pointed Tobby Simon, the founder and president of Synergia out that elections are considered as the cornerstone of a democracy. They are Foundation, was one of the speakers at the eleventh increasingly made vulnerable to both information operations and cyberattacks in edition of the World Policy Conference. He enunciated on the information age. the topic “Global Governance in a Hyper-Connected World” Assessment along with co panellist who included Virginie Robert – Chief Editor of the International desk, Les Echoes, Patrick Nicolet Our assessment is that global governance in a hyper-connected world has become – Group Technology officer & Group Executive Board distributed and collaborative. We are all part of a much broader problem-solving network, with many high performing organisations and individuals – public and Member of Cap Gemini, Francois Barrault – Chairman of private, working on different parts of the problem or even the same part of the IDATE, Chang Dae -whan, Chairman & Publisher Maekyung same problem. We believe that global governance is not about leaders charting Media Group & Former Prime , South and their own course but helping networks solve issues with the best and most current thinking available. Thus, we feel that collaboration is a new competition and the Francis Gurry – WIPO. more valuable our contributions are, the higher our influence will be.

Background

The World Policy Conference (WPC) has been ranked the 3rd best Conference in 2017 according to The Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program (TTCSP) at the Lauder Institute, University of Pennsylvania '2017 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report'.

Analysis

Tobby Simon, the founder and president of Synergia Foundation, was one of the speakers at the eleventh World Policy Conference held in Rabat, Morocco. He shared his insights on the topic “Global Governance in a Hyper-Connected World.” He outlined on the paradox of globalisation and said that while globalisation is the most progressive force in history, it could also cause one of the most severe Toxic air suffocating New crises in the 21st century. Consequentially, people would likely become xenophobic, protectionist and nationalist due to the increased risk of integration. He mentioned that the primary challenge to global governance is the inability to manage current Delhi issues as the future is unlike the past. Asia’s largest economy, China, has long had a reputation for He said that at the national level, the biggest challenge for politicians and smoggy skies. But these days, neighbouring India is fighting policymakers is the need to balance the enormous benefits that global openness a far bigger battle with pollution: The South Asian country and connectivity brings with the need to protect industries and employment at the local level. He pointed out that the repurposing of global governance is vital to meet is home to the world’s 10 most polluted cities. new challenges. Nations are divided and cannot agree on a common approach. This is either because they lack common consensus or leadership in critical global Background issues. Pollution is described as the introduction of contaminants into the natural Tobby emphasised that the underlying tragedy of the Global Commons is the environment. Pollution often leads to adverse changes in the environment. It can overexploitation of shared resources. Like herders in the past, no single person be chemical substances or energy, such as noise, heat or light. Pollutants, the has the motivation and responsibility to limit the number or extend the grazing of components of pollution, can be either foreign substances/energies or naturally livestock. As a result, the resource will eventually collapse. He said that the internet occurring contaminants. The onset of urban pollution began with the burning of is a shared global common and cyber criminality is a common threat that requires coal and wood. It was the Industrial Revolution that began in the 18th century that intervention both at the global and national level. One cannot fight criminals gave birth to environmental pollution as we know it in modern times. who transcend national borders with justice systems that are limited by national jurisdictions. Air pollution can be defined as the presence of toxic chemicals or compounds in the air, at levels that pose a health risk. Most often it is caused by human actives such as He reiterated that cyber-attacks could trigger massive outages in a hyper-connected mining, construction, transportation, industrial work and so on.

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Analysis Background

A US-study has estimated that India and China together account for more than half Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi Arabian who was a permanent resident of of global deaths due to air pollution. According to the study, the increasing exposure the United States and a columnist at the Washington Post, was killed at the Saudi to air pollution combined with an ageing population has led to India rivalling China Arabian Consulate in Istanbul on 2nd October. He was a vocal critic of Saudi Arabian in health burden from bad air. The report states that China’s PM2.5 pollution levels crown prince Mohammed bin Salman and his “oppressive regime”. have started stabilising and people’s exposure to particulate pollution has also started declining but meanwhile, it’s on a steep rise in India. The Saudi government denied any involvement in Khashoggi’s death for two weeks into the investigation, before finally admitting he was killed by several high ranking India has long struggled to pull together the type of coordinated national approach officials in the embassy. that’s helped China reduce pollution. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government is now pushing new initiatives that are looking towards curtailing hazardous air Turkish officials claim they have evidence he was dismembered and tortured before quality. But any gains would have to be enough to override other facets of India’s being murdered. Saudi’s ties with its strongest ally, the United States, have grown rampant growth, from the dust left by thousands of new construction sites to strained over the issue. Many political, financial and business leaders have also exhaust emissions from millions of new cars. spoken strongly against the country.

By the ’s calculations, health-care fees and productivity losses from Saudi Arabia is the world's top producers and exporters of oil. Saudi Arabia's pollution cost India as much as 8.5 per cent of GDP. At its current size of $2.6 trillion, economy is petroleum-based; Oil actually accounts for 90 per cent of the country's that works out to about $221 billion every year. exports and nearly 75 per cent government revenues. In 2014, a global fall in oil prices caused the Saudi economy to deteriorate. “The major challenge is that people are not consistently demanding improvements in air pollution, as happened in China,” Michael Greenstone, director of the Energy According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report, Saudi’s economic growth Policy Institute at the University of Chicago, said. “This is because the extent to will slow in the next five years, while Saudi foreign reserves are declining at an which air pollution is causing people in India to lead shorter and sicker lives is alarming rate (falling to $593 billion at the end of February 2016, down 17 per cent not yet fully recognised.” However, after two decades of expansion that reshaped from the previous year’s level). the global economy, China is orchestrating a shift to less-polluting services and consumption. The Modi government’s policies on pollution will be put to the test Analysis as winter descends on the dusty plains of north India. Crops are burned during this season and millions of fireworks go off during the Diwali festival, usually pushing air On 23rd Oct, in the first official release on the Khashoggi killing, Turkish President pollution to hazardous levels. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan accused Saudi officials of a ‘planned political assassination’. He called the killing of Jamal Khashoggi premeditated murder and said it included Assessment reconnaissance missions by the kill team long before the event.

Our assessment is that this is an alarming red flag for India to take effective actions Erdogan posed several questions to Saudi Arabia, including why it had constantly against air pollution that aggravates each year. The country would have to continue changed its story about what happened, where Khashoggi’s remains were, and adopting indigenous and modern energy efficient technologies that would swiftly exactly who was involved in the assassination. He said that didn't doubt reduce the impact of pollution in most regions of the country. We also feel that, King Salman’s credibility, but demanded a full, independent investigation and that while overall economic growth is being overshadowed, the reliance on green energy the trial of the accused be held in Turkey. would have to increase to provide access to cleaner air and a healthier population. A few hours later, Khashoggi’s remains were discovered in the garden of the We believe that market-based instruments having a larger role, such as pollution Saudi consul general's house. Sources revealed the 59-year-old was "cut up" and nd tax and tradeable pollution permits, could help curtail the growing environmental "disfigured" after being killed in Saudi Arabia's consulate in Istanbul on October 2 . costs. Reducing emissions from coal-based power plants would offer the largest potential for air quality improvement. We also understand that India has a long way It was also reported that the head of the “kill squad” made four calls to Prince to go in order to achieve clean and sustainable air quality. Hence, it is imperative Mohammed bin Salman’s secretary the afternoon that Khashoggi was murdered, that the government implements tried and tested programs that will curb air contradicting the Saudi narrative of an accidental death by a rogue agent that the pollution not only in Delhi but across the country. prince knew nothing about. The desecration of Khashoggi’s body is in complete violation of Sharia law, observed by both Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

On 24th October, Saudi officials admit that a body double was part of an operation aimed at extracting journalist Jamal Khashoggi from the kingdom's consulate in Istanbul for questioning at a "safe house”. They say when the journalist tried shouting for help, an agent put him into a chokehold to keep him quiet, but inadvertently killed him instead. No official could account for Turkish claims that Khashoggi's body was dismembered with a bone saw inside the building.

Later that day, the United States said that 21 Saudis will have their US visas revoked or be made ineligible for US visas over the killing of Khashoggi. US President Donald Trump also suggested for the first time that Mohammed bin Salman might have taken part in the operation to assassinate Khashoggi. President Trump is the first American president to have taken a vocal stand against Saudi human rights Saudi’s Weakened violations. Assessment

Position Our assessment is that at this time, Saudi perhaps feels isolated from the West. Riyadh will also be worried that there will be dissent back home. If the Saudi The latest revelations in Jamal Khashoggi’s murder at government does not bow to international pressure, we could see infighting the Saudi Arabian embassy seem to implicate those at between the princes, perhaps in the form of a claim made by prince Ahmed bin the highest echelons of power in the kingdom. Some of Abdulaziz or former crown prince Muhammed bin Nayef. President Trump’s and other western leaders’ statements Given Saudi’s influence over the region, the outcome of this case will go a long way have probably left Saudi believing the West is finally turning in defining human rights in Saudi Arabia and other neighbouring states. We believe against them. that what happens in Saudi will impact the rest of the Sunni Muslim world.

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Humanitarian Fund. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has expressed his “deep gratitude” to MBS, as the Saudi crown prince is known, but he called for the kingdom to abide by the rules of war and lift the blockade on Yemen’s ports, which is choking off food sources.

A major conflict-related factor affecting the availability of food is the loss of household income. The World Bank estimates that Yemen’s economy has contracted 50 per cent since the start of the conflict, with at least 600,000 jobs lost, mainly in agriculture and the service sector.

Causes aside, the consequence of the crisis is an alarming deterioration in Yemen’s food security. Experts warn that the fight against famine is being lost. Many cases of families eating leaves have already been reported. Beyond mere survival, 2 million children across Yemen have no access to education, according to the UN children's Yemen Losing Fight agency UNICEF. Against Famine Assessment Our assessment is that if urgent steps are not taken to address the humanitarian UN Humanitarian experts have warned that Yemen faces crisis in Yemen, the effects of the civil war will be felt for generations after it ends, the world’s worst famine in 100 years. Saudi Arabian forces and could plunge millions into an irreversible state of dire poverty and ill health. have been called upon to stop the blockade of goods, We believe that if a strong message is sent to combatants about the importance of observing the laws of war in regard to civilians, a humanitarian crisis of this scale including food, to Yemen. The blockade is one of Saudi’s could be avoided in future. tactics in the war against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels that are trying to overthrow the internationally recognised Yemeni government.

Background

The modern Republic of Yemen is a relatively new state. In the early 20th century, the country was divided between the Ottoman and British empires. South Yemen became a communist country and North Yemen remained true to its roots. In 1990, the two regions merged.

Yemen, one of the world’s poorest countries, has been devastated by the war between forces loyal to the internationally recognized government of President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi and those allied to the Houthi rebel movement. The Yemen Civil war began in 2011 with the Arab Spring protests that led to the fall of the then President Ali Abdallah Saleh on charges of corruption and economic grievances. Hadi, his Facebook activates deputy minister at that time, took over the region. However, the increasing political instability in Yemen paved the way for the Houthi, representing the Shiite minority to take over the territory. election ‘war room’ The social media company is gearing up for the upcoming A military intervention was launched by Saudi Arabia in 2015, to influence the Civil War in Yemen. A two-year Saudi-led campaign has damaged infrastructure and US Mid-term elections by opening a “war-room” to fight caused a shortage of food and medicine. Reports have also emerged that there disinformation campaigns. Facebook has been heavily are players within Yemen who actively sponsor terrorism by funding activities criticised for its inaction during the 2016 Presidential conducted by ISIS. Since 2015 the country has been engaged in a civil war in which the exiled government, backed by Saudi Arabia, is trying to defeat the Houthi group Elections when alleged foreign actors manipulated users by aligned with Iran. spreading misinformation.

Analysis Background

The U.N. humanitarian chief says the conflict in Yemen has left 8.4 million people Facebook, a social media and social networking site, was launched by Mark dependent on emergency food assistance and 75 per cent of its 22 million people Zuckerberg in 2004 along with some of his Harvard roommates. Almost instantly requiring some form of aid. Officials estimate that 3.5 million to 4 million more the site was a hit among its users and grew exponentially across the world. As of people could become severely food insecure in the months ahead. According to August 2018, Facebook has more than two billion users monthly. the UN, 3 million Yemenis are malnourished, including 1.1 million pregnant women and more than 400,000 severely acutely malnourished children. Throughout the South Asia’s young and technology-savvy population has encouraged Silicon Valley civil war, civilians have borne the brunt of the conflict. tech giants like Google and Facebook to invest in the region. The recent scandal with Cambridge Analytica has unveiled Facebook’s unethical practices of user data Over 10,000 people have been killed, while survivors battle cholera and diphtheria storage outside of the host country. epidemic, famine and a severe humanitarian crisis. UN advocates are calling on a military coalition led by US ally Saudi Arabia to halt air strikes that are often missing Their latest effort to combat fake news comes at the heels of intense public and targets and killing civilians while decimating villages. The action is contributing to government scrutiny for their inaction during the 2016 Presidential Election foreign what the UN says could become “the worst famine in the world in 100 years.” hacking scandal.

Saudi Arabia, backed by the US, the UK and , is using air strikes and a Analysis blockade of goods, including food, as it supports Yemen’s internationally recognized government against the Iran-backed rebels. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Facebook has set up a ‘nerve centre’ to combat fake accounts and bogus news Emirates, two countries that have helped fuel Yemen’s conflict, have given the stories ahead of upcoming elections. That motto might strike some as ironic, given UN one of its biggest donations for relief in aid history: $930 million to the Yemen that the war room was created to counter threats that almost no one at the company, 4 - Insights ▷ October 2018

least of all CEO Mark Zuckerberg, took seriously just two years ago — and which from hydrocarbon or biomass raw materials.” Besides polymers, plastic also often the company’s critics now believe pose a threat to democracy. Days after President contains a number of other harmful chemicals, used to alter physical properties Donald Trump’s surprise victory, Zuckerberg brushed off assertions that the such as colour and shape. The commercial use of plastic as we know it today began outcome had been influenced by fictional news stories on Facebook, calling the in the 1950s. Since then, the world has generated 8.3 billion tonnes plastic waste. idea “pretty crazy.” However, Facebook’s unconcerned attitude shifted as criticism As a result of the widespread use of plastic and consumerist culture, plastic has of the company mounted in Congress and elsewhere. become a major source of pollution.

Later that year, it acknowledged having run thousands of ads promoting false Dumping plastic in oceans is thought to adversely affect up to 700 different forms information placed by Russian agents. Zuckerberg eventually made fixing Facebook of marine life. A number of seabirds and fish consume or get entangled in plastic his personal challenge for 2018. paraphernalia disposed in the ocean, which often results in death. As a result, there have been global calls to tackle this issue. The war room is a major part of Facebook’s ongoing repairs. Its technology draws upon the artificial intelligence system Facebook has been using to help identify The Great Pacific Garbage Patch is a collection of floating trash in the Pacific Ocean. “inauthentic” posts and user behaviour. Facebook provided a tightly controlled It stretches across an area widely described as “larger than Texas”, and weighs 79,000 glimpse at its war room to media outlets ahead of the second round of presidential tons. 94 percent of the 1.8 trillion pieces of plastic in the patch are microplastics. elections in Brazil on Oct 28nd and the US midterm elections on Nov 6th. The EU's research on the topic says about 150,000 tonnes of plastic are tossed into European waters every year. More than 20 different teams now coordinate the efforts of more than 20,000 people — mostly contractors — devoted to blocking fake accounts and fictional news and Analysis stopping other abuses on Facebook and its other services. As part of the crackdown, Facebook also has hired fact checkers, including The Associated Press, to vet news The European Parliament has voted for a complete ban on a range of single-use stories posted on its social network. plastics across the union in a bid to stop pollution of the oceans. MEPs backed a ban on plastic cutlery and plates, cotton buds, straws, drink-stirrers and balloon Counterpoint sticks. The proposal also calls for a reduction in single-use plastic for food and drink containers like plastic cups. One MEP said, if no action was taken, "by 2050 there will Facebook defends its war room as an effective weapon against misinformation, be more plastic than fish in the oceans". although its efforts are still a work in progress. Samidh Chakrabarti, Facebook's director of elections and civic engagement, acknowledged that some “bugs” The European Commission proposed a ban in May, following a surge in public prevented Facebook from taking some unspecified actions to prevent manipulation support attributed to documentaries such as David Attenborough's BBC Blue Planet efforts in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election earlier this month. He series. The measure still has to clear some procedural hurdles but is expected to go declined to elaborate. through. The EU hopes it will go into effect across the bloc by 2021.

After the Parliament vote was backed by 571-53, the MEP responsible for the bill, Assessment Frédérique Ries, said it was "a victory for our oceans, for the environment and for future generations." Our assessment is that Facebook is trying to keep misinformation away from its platform but is struggling to find a sustainable method to do so. It came under The directive targets some of the most common ocean-polluting plastics. The list heavy scrutiny after the Cambridge Analytica scandal came to light and it has been of banned items such as cutlery and cotton buds were chosen because there are doing everything in its power from losing users. We believe that foreign hackers will readily available alternatives, such as paper straws and cardboard containers. Other try to use Facebook once again before the 2018 Midterms to spread misinformation. items, "where no alternative exists" will still have to be reduced by 25 percent in However, we also feel that they may employ more covert tactics to avoid raising any each country by 2025. red flags in Facebook’s new “war room”. Examples given include burger boxes and sandwich wrappers. Another ambitious target is to ensure 90 percent of all plastic drinks’ bottles are collected for recycling by 2025. Currently, bottles and their lids account for about 20 percent of all the sea plastic, the European Parliament report said.

Assessment

Our assessment is that directly or indirectly, plastic has serious health implications on humanity. We believe that countries should capitalize on waste, by reusing, reducing and recycling. States around neighbouring oceans should hold dialogues and implement necessary laws to ensure maintenance of the ocean’s health. We also feel that Food and Water safety legislation may have to be modified, contingent on WHO findings. EU bans single-use Plastic The European Parliament has voted for a complete ban on a range of single-use plastics across the union in a bid to stop the pollution of the oceans. This vote comes at the heels of a critical report published by the UN on the state of the environment and the potential global catastrophe if no action is taken. Background Brexit’s “Key issues”

According to the UNEP, plastic is defined as “any synthetic or semi-synthetic The UK and EU say key issues remain unresolved following polymer with thermo-plastic or thermo-set properties, which may be synthesized unscheduled Brexit talks in Brussels.

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Background

On June 23rd, 2016, Britain narrowly voted to leave the European Union, stunning Europe and the world in general. The EU employs a set of policies for its 28-member states that aim to ensure the free movement of people, goods and trade among other services. Britain is deeply intertwined with the workings of the EU especially with regard to trade.

Over the past year, leaders of member nations have expressed their dismay over Britain leaving the body. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte are among those who have been vocal about their apprehension regarding the events that are unfolding.

In December 2017, UK Prime Minister Theresa May struck a last-minute deal with the EU regarding key issues. According to this deal, there will be no "hard border" in Ireland. The rights of EU citizens in the UK and the rights of UK citizens living China accuses detained elsewhere in the EU would also be protected in accordance with the deal. The UK is officially set to leave in March 2019. Ex-Interpol chief of bribery Analysis China has accused ex-Interpol president Meng Hongwei of bribery and other crimes just days after his disappearance Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier met for more than an hour ahead of a crunch EU leaders' summit this week. Mr. Barnier tweeted drew international scrutiny. Meng was first reported missing that issues, such as how to avoid a hard border with Ireland, were "still open". A UK in late September after travelling from France to his native government spokesman said UK and EU negotiators "have made real progress in a China. number of key areas. However there remain a number of unresolved issues relating to the backstop," he added. Background No further talks are planned before Mr. Barnier and Theresa May's summit on Meng Hongwei, 64, was named the president of the International Criminal Police Wednesday, she added. The meeting comes as domestic political pressure on Mrs Organization (Interpol) in November 2016 and was due to serve until 2020. Interpol is May increases amid threats of potential cabinet resignations. In a letter to the prime the world’s largest police agency consisting of 192 member countries. It coordinates minister, Scottish Secretary David Mundell and Scots Tory leader Ruth Davidson between police forces across the globe and assists in searches for missing and said they would not accept Northern Ireland being treated differently than the rest wanted suspects. Meng’s appointment was met with applause from China. of the UK in any Brexit deal.

However, human rights advocates and academics voiced concerns that Beijing This follows reports that other top ministers have been considering their positions could seek to abuse his power to track down and deport back to China dissidents over the weekend, ahead of a meeting of the cabinet on Tuesday at which ministers and fugitives abroad. China has a history of calling on countries to arrest and deport could be asked to give their consent to an agreement. The Raab-Barnier meeting citizens accused of crimes like corruption and terrorism. came amid conflicting signals as to whether the two sides were nearing a deal on the terms of the UK's exit next March. Many Conservative MPs are unhappy with In late September, Meng was reported missing after travelling to China, prompting the UK government's proposed alternative, which would see the UK temporarily an investigation by French authorities. His wife contacted police in Lyon – where remain in a customs union until the Irish border question is resolved, either through Interpol headquarters are located – saying she hadn’t heard from him since he technological solutions or as part of a wider trade agreement. arrived in China and had received threats via phone and social media. His wife, Grace, said he sent her a WhatsApp message on September 25th that read: “Wait for ‘Brexiteers’ fear this will leave the UK in indefinite limbo, bound by the EU's my call.” Four minutes later, she said she received an emoji of a knife. On Sunday, rules and limited in the trade deals it can negotiate with other countries. Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, who has been hosting other European foreign ministers Interpol said Meng resigned his post “with immediate effect”. at his Chevening residence, said such calls were "wrong" when "last-minute" talks were going on and Mrs May was "battling for Britain". "The reason that's wrong is Analysis there is no-one who is going to be able to negotiate the right deal for Britain better than Theresa May. This is the time to stand rock solid behind Theresa May." Interpol president Meng Hongwei has been accused of bribery and corruption by China. The Ministry of Public Security, of which Meng is listed as vice-minister, Counterpoint said in an announcement that Meng was in the custody of party investigators and is being investigated for accepting bribes and other crimes. The ministry said top officials met to discuss Meng’s case. PM May’s “Chequers” plan is the biggest bone of contention between the UK and EU negotiators which has not been addressed so far. The UK has reiterated that the “We should deeply recognize the serious damage that Meng Hongwei’s bribe-taking ‘Chequers’ plan will be the UK’s official stance in the negotiation. The plan, however, and suspected violations of the law have caused the party and the cause of public does not address the Northern Ireland Border issue. security and deeply learn from this lesson,” said the announcement about the meeting, chaired by Minister Zhao Lezhi. However, it lays down a long list of demands from the EU, which include the continued free access to the EU common market for the UK for an indefinite period Authorities said the investigation of Meng was “very timely, totally right, and very of time. wise,” adding that he was in this situation due to his own “wilfulness and for bringing trouble upon himself.” Assessment “I find it regrettable that the top leader of the organization had to go out this way Our assessment is that as Britain was able to secure a deal regarding key issues and that we weren’t specifically notified of what was happening in advance,” Kim in December 2017, the possibility of a no-deal Brexit seems unlikely in the status said. “We still don’t have sufficient information about what’s happening, or whether quo. However, the direction less negotiations between the government and the it has anything to do with Chinese domestic politics.” lackluster leadership from the Prime Minister are leaving a cloud of doubt on any potential Brexit deal. The mysterious disappearance and detaining of the former Interpol head are the latest in a string of top officials, billionaires and an A-list celebrity who mysteriously UK companies and the government must prepare for the reality that post-Brexit, the vanished over the past few months. In early October, one of China’s best-known private sector will not be able to access the same amount of privileges in Europe actresses Fan Bingbing – who disappeared in July – suddenly came forward with that it enjoys presently. a public apology and a fine of 883 million yuan for tax evasion and other offences. 6 - Insights ▷ October 2018

Counterpoint with other apps. In a blog post, Google fellow and vice president of engineering Ben Smith said the bug likely occurred as a result of the API’s interaction with a Google+ Meng is the latest high-profile official to be swept up in a broad corruption crackdown code change. by the ruling Communist Party. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang said his detaining “has shown the Chinese government’s firm resolve to crack down on Since the API was designed to keep logs for two weeks, Google said it cannot corruption and crime”, noting that it “fully demonstrates the party is firm in fighting determine which users were impacted by the bug. Based on a detailed analysis of corruption.” Analysts view the crackdown as a political purge. two weeks prior to the bug patch, Google estimates the profiles of up to 500,000 Google+ accounts were affected. About 438 developers “may have used” the API in Assessment question.

We assess that the abrupt disappearance and unconventional detaining of the “We found no evidence that any developer was aware of this bug or abusing the top leader of a global organization without prior notice could hurt China’s image API, and we found no evidence that any profile data was misused,” Smith said. and diplomatic relations abroad. We believe the incident may cast a shadow on Citing unnamed sources and a memo prepared by Google’s legal and policy staff the appointment of other Chinese nationals in top international posts due to for senior executives, the Wall Street Journal reported that Google decided not to fears of potential interference by Beijing. We feel that it may also strain relations disclose the incident due to fear of regulatory scrutiny and negative comparisons between China and international organizations institutions, of which the country to the Facebook-Cambridge Analytica scandal. Chief Executive Sundar Pichai was is a member. reportedly briefed on the issue.

Google has decided to retire the free version of Google+ by August 2019, adding that 90 per cent of all Google+ sessions didn’t last more than 5 seconds. The company has also announced new privacy policies for Google accounts and user data.

The disclosure comes after both Facebook and disclosed breaches in recent weeks. Facebook announced a major breach affecting at least 50 million users. Twitter disclosed a bug accidentally shared users’ direct messages with Twitter app developers.

Counterpoint

The decision to shut down Google+ shortly after the revelation of the breach could set Google apart from its competitors who are also facing scrutiny over data privacy. US policymakers and regulators could view Google’s response to the issue, including Google+ shutting down its new policies that reign in developer access to data, as noteworthy. after massive user data leak Assessment Our assessment is that the Google+ breach could receive additional scrutiny from Google announced it is shutting down Google Plus after US lawmakers and regulators due to the memo reported. We believe it also raises discovering a security vulnerability that exposed the concerns about major companies discussing how the disclosure of such security incidents would appear to regulators, given that there is no federal law requiring personal data of up to 500,000 users. The bug was discovered companies to disclose such bugs. We feel that although Google’s security issue in March 2018, but was not publicly disclosed due to fears of occurred before GDPR rules went into effect, such events in the future will likely be regulatory scrutiny, the Wall Street Journal reported. met with further fines and reputation damage. Background

Google Plus was introduced in 2011 as a competitor to Facebook’s social media network. Linking users to other Google products such as YouTube and its search engine, it comes with Facebook-like features such as status updates, news feeds and allowing users to organize groups of friends into “circles”. However, Google+ failed to catch on with users beyond niche communities.

Data privacy and security have been thrust into mainstream discussion following a string of major breaches worldwide. Earlier this year, Facebook acknowledged that British research organization Cambridge Analytica improperly gained access to the personal data of nearly 87 million Facebook users. In May 2017, Europe adopted the new General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) laws that mandate companies to notify regulators of potential data breaches or leaks within 72 hours. Solving unemployment in Analysis

Google is shutting down its Google+ social network after the company’s engineers South Africa discovered an API bug that may have exposed the personal data of more than 500,000 users to hundreds of external developers. By default, Google+ allows app South African President, Cyril Ramaphosa recently called developers to access some Google+ data with users’ permission. In March 2018, Google discovered a bug located in a Google+ People API. on top public and private companies at the opening of Presidential Jobs Summit to take necessary actions to From 2015 to March 2018, it allowed developers of third-party apps to gain access reduce the high levels of unemployment in the country. to users’ data that was marked private as well. Data exposed included full names, email addresses, birth dates, gender, profile photos, occupation, places lived, and relationship status. However, Google+ posts, messages, Google account data, Background phone numbers and G Suite content were not impacted. South Africa is the second largest economy in Africa, and the 34th largest in the The bug was immediately patched as part of a review of how Google shares data world. Concerning purchasing power parity, South Africa has the seventh-highest

7 - Insights ▷October 2018

per capita income in Africa. However, poverty and inequality remain widespread, with about a quarter of the population unemployed and living on less than US$1.25 a day. The African National Congress (ANC), which has ruled South Africa since the fall of apartheid, promised reforms to redress racial disparities in land ownership. Despite more than 20 years of ANC rule, whites still own most of South Africa’s land. Tom Riddles Digital

South Africa's economy has entered a recession for the first time in nearly a Diary decade. Gross domestic product fell 0.7 percent in the second quarter, dragged down by a weak performance in the agricultural sector. The country’s First Quarter performance of this year was negatively impacted by Jacob Zuma’s resignation from being President. The last time South Africa fell into a recession was during the Global Financial Crisis in 2009, and it had recovered well.

Analysis

President Cyril Ramaphosa, while addressing businessmen, trade unionists and government technocrats at the much-anticipated Jobs Summit highlighted the need to reduce unemployment levels in the country. He announced that deals between the government and the private sector would create 275,000 more jobs. At present, the unemployment rate in South Africa is more than 27 per cent which is one of the highest in the world’s major economies. Synergia Foundation was at the Bangalore Literature Festival on 28th October to speak to teens and young adults about Cyber Hygiene. Ramaphosa said, “Extreme unemployment in this country is the product of an Our research associate Aashna Dasgupta conducted an interactive economy that for several decades has been starved of any meaningful investment session with a group of 11 to 16-year-olds. Titled “Tom Riddles in its human capital, where most people have been denied the opportunity to own Digital Diary”, the session used analogies to children’s literature to assets.” start a conversation on the importance of staying safe online.

To rescue the country’s economy from recession, the President had outlined details The objective was to facilitate an open conversation that would of stimulus packages which planned to build a $400 billion-rand infrastructure encourage the children to come up with their own solutions to project, make changes to immigration policies and boost agriculture in the country. reduce the threats they would face in Cyberspace. The children A key objective for improving infrastructure is that it will encourage tourism. Making shared incidents of cyber bullying and online harassment they immigration easier will allow more highly skilled workers to enter the country. had either encountered or heard from friends. They believed that Boosting agriculture is necessary for an economy that is highly dependent on it and the best way to avoid being victimised by cyber bullies and online one that has been besieged by drought recently. predators was to inform adults of online interactions that made them feel threatened or uncomfortable. The government aims at boosting local procurement and government-led export drive for manufactured and processed goods. Some aims announced were - to Participants volunteered to share information on the type of explore all possible options before laying off staff, cutting executive salaries and exchanges that would make them feel secure, aided in part by preceding dividend payments. the facilitator. Anecdotes were shared of how destroying online predators could be, and the fact that anything shared in the internet Recent data from StatsSA show that South Africa’s non-agricultural formal sector was permanent. bled 69,000 jobs between March and June 2018. The unemployment rate for youth (aged between 15 and 34) was 38.8 percent, compared with 17.9 percent for adults As the session was conducted on the weekend before Halloween, (aged between 35 and 64). The unemployment rate among women, compared with the children played a game for candy rewards. They were divided 25.3 percent for men. Consistently since 2011, the rate of unemployment among into teams of cyber criminals and cyber security officers (most were women outweighed the rate of unemployment among men. eager to be on the side of the cyber criminals). They were asked to come up with ideas of ways in which individuals’ privacy and online security could be breached, as well as methods of preventing and Counterpoint rectifying those breaches.

Unemployment is an urgent problem that the country needs to solve, as nearly The response to this section of the session was tremendous, and a third of the population is unemployed. Though the Jobs Summit promised the children were able to debate on everything from malware and th and highlighted effective policy measures, it is the 4 summit in 20 years. Thus, it phishing emails to cat fishing on social media, in addition to coming questions the success rate of these summits. up with insightful solutions to those problems. The kids educated each other on password safety, two factor authentication and the Assessment importance of never shopping online without parental supervision.

Our assessment is that intense regulatory pressures, rising input cost, corruption, The session was for a period of 30 minutes, and participation was higher administrative cost all contribute to higher unemployment in South Africa. enthusiastic and rewarding for the children as well personally We feel that while the government has invested in programmes such as the Youth gratifying for Aashna and the Synergia Foundation. We are grateful Employment Service (YES), it has an urban focus and excluded the agricultural to Bangalore Lit Fest for providing such an opportunity to engage sector. with children.

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INSIGHTS Insights is a weekly newsletter published by the experts at the Synergia Foundation that Editor- Chandana S provide analysis and assessment of geo political events based on real time information. Address SYNERGIA FOUNDATION www.facebook.com/SynergiaFoundation 34, Vittal Mallya Road, Synergia Foundation is a strategic think tank that works with corporate executive boards & Bengaluru, Karnataka 560001, governments to provide deep insights on threats that affect both individuals & organisations. twitter.com/SynergiaImpact India We work on real time primary information, and draw on our global network of resources to Tel : +91 80 4197 1000 deliver the most comprehensive analysis and impactful solutions. www.synergiafoundation.in Email : [email protected] www.synergiaconclave.org 8