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West Papuan Demographics Revisited; Settlers Dominate Coastal Regions but the Highlands Still Overwhelmingly Papuan

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West Papuan Demographics Revisited; Settlers Dominate Coastal Regions but the Highlands Still Overwhelmingly Papuan Volume 15 | Issue 2 | Number 1 | Article ID 5005 | Jan 15, 2017 The Asia-Pacific Journal | Japan Focus The Great Divide: West Papuan Demographics Revisited; Settlers Dominate Coastal Regions but the Highlands Still Overwhelmingly Papuan Jim Elmslie Abstract is also occurring in the highlands from expansion of the oil/gas sector and mining This paper will reconsider previous work on the sector; the proliferation of new regencies (with demographic transition under way in West new bureaucracies) and the continuing Papua (the Indonesian provinces of Papua and development of new roads, all of which alienate Papua Barat) in the light of documents received traditional land and draw in migrants. from the Indonesian Statistics Office (Badan Meanwhile the conflict over the political status Pusat Statistic BPS) that give an ethnicof West Papua will continue, and indeed grow, breakdown across the 29 regencies that as external actors, such as the Pacific countries comprise Papua province and the eleven of Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands, shine a regencies in Papua Barat. They show that, spotlight on the conflict and advocate for the while the proportion of Papuan people as a right to self-determination for the West Papuan percentage of the entire population continues people. to decline, this process varies widely between different regencies. While some have a strong This essay is dedicated to Professor Peter King, majority of non-Papuan people other regencies who died in Sydney in August 2016. Peter and I are still overwhelmingly Papuan. Thiscofounded the West Papua Project at the dichotomy is closely linked with topography – Center for Peace and Conflict Studies at the mountainous interior outside of urban areas Sydney University in 2000 and was my teacher, having a Papuan majority and the accessible mentor and friend for 24 years. lowlands a non-Papuan majority. The The Importance of West Papua to consequences of this dichotomy – a large chunk Indonesia of West Papua about the size of Great Britain is peopled almost exclusively by Melanesian The territory of West Papua (the Indonesian people, even as some of the coastal regions provinces of Papua and Papua Barat) makes up become non-Papuan majority– is profound. about 24% of Indonesia’s total landmass but West Papuans of the interior have not only contains only 1.7% of the nation’s population. It survived Indonesian occupation but have kept is also Indonesia’s richest region in terms of their lands and cultures largely intact, which natural resources with the largest extant tracts continues to underpin calls for an independent of rainforest in south-east Asia; vast oil and gas West Papua and conflict with the Indonesian reserves, and possibly the world’s largest government and its security forces. While deposits of copper and gold. Indeed Papua’s coastal regions continue to receive large giant Freeport Mine is the largest economic numbers of non-Papuan migrants resulting in entity in Indonesia and the country’s largest the increasing minoritisation of the Papuan taxpayer. people and their concomitant militarization, marginalization and dispossession. This process The economic exploitation of these resources, 1 15 | 2 | 1 APJ | JF especially in the establishment of massive oil palm plantations (millions of hectares are underway or planned), and the economic opportunities that arise from a fast growing local economy has drawn in hundreds of thousands of migrants from other regions of Indonesia motivated by self-interest and previously by government sponsored transmigration programs. The migrants differ starkly from the indigenous (mainly Christian) Melanesian inhabitants of West Papua, being light skinned Asians predominantly of the Muslim faith. West Papua is also symbolically central to the self-conceptualization of the Indonesian state Map One showing the territory of West as an archipelago nation whose motto is Papua (the Indonesian provinces of Papua Bhinneka Tunggal Ika (Unity in Diversity) and it and Papua Barat), previously known as represents the final victory of the Indonesian Irian Jaya. Note the large chain of nationalists over the Dutch after 350 years of mountain ranges that run through the brutal colonial rule. This means that the future island of New Guinea all the way to the of West Papua, and the movement by Papuan Bird’s Head region and the flat coastal nationalists to break away from Indonesia, is a plains to the north and south of this first order concern for the Indonesian highlands region. government and military. The demographic transition now underway wherein new migrants West Papuan Demographic Transition have become the majority in many regencies is one of the underlying drivers of conflict in West In a series of papers since 2006 I have Papua and is fueling the widespread desire for examined the demographic transition that has independence amongst the Papuan people. This taken place in West Papua following Indonesian is resulting in a direct challenge to the takeover in 1962-63, and especially since the authority and legitimacy of the Indonesian state census of 1971, which found the total and its sovereignty over West Papua. population of 923,000 as being 96% Papuan and only 4%, or 36,000 people, as non-Papuan. The basis of this argument is that the non- Papuan sector of the population is growing faster than the Papuan sector due to large scale inward migration of non-Papuans from other parts of Indonesia and the vastly substandard living conditions of ethic Papuans, including high infant and maternal mortality rates, that cause a lower overall fertility rate. Due to patchy statistical information the rate of growth of the two population sectors had to be estimated from different censuses data and then extrapolated as a projection of a possible future demographic break down. 2 15 | 2 | 1 APJ | JF While the trends are clear and unambiguous 1971 up to 2000. From my calculations this the actual population growth rates varymeant that indigenous Papuans comprised depending on assumptions about future inward about 48% of the entire population of West migration and respective fertility rates. It also Papua (Papua and Papua Barat provinces) in must be presumed that in a region as vast and 2010. The figures received from the BPS are as rugged as West Papua, census data will from the 2010 census and identify the always be incomplete, as well as containing inhabitants of Papua province as either Suku certain inaccuracies. Therefore while the data Papua (Papuan tribe) or Suku Bukan Papua allows one to establish trends with great (non-Papuan tribe). According to these figures confidence, the precise number of future out of a total population of 2,883,381 in Papua population segments should be taken as Province, some 2,121,436 were Papuan indicative (with the caveat that projections are (73.57%) and 658,708 Non-Papuan (22.84%), based on past growth rates remainingthe remainder being unknown. The BPS figures consistent, which may not always be the case). for Papua Barat show that the total population Nonetheless the population of West Papua is 753,399 of which 51.49% is Papuan. continues to grow and the percentage of the population which is non-Papuan also continues to rise. This is a driver of conflict: newcomers take resources such as land, forests and minerals from traditional land owners; the Indonesian security apparatus continues to grow to maintain control over the territory and resource extraction in particular; Papuan people are further marginalized and lose even their basic freedoms of speech and association, and so Papuan discontent at the Indonesian occupation also grows and with it the desire for independence. Therefore understanding the demographic transition that is underway is central to comprehending the nature of the conflict in West Papua. Where this paper extends the argument made in previous works is in the examination of the Papuan population on a regency by regency basis. Whereas in previous analyses the figures Map Two showing the territory of West were largely conflated to look at the territory of Papua including the Indonesian provinces West Papua (both Papua and Papua Barat of Papua and Papua Barat (West Papua) provinces) as a whole, we are now able to and the administrative regions called rather forensically examine each particular kabupatan (regencies). region in isolation. This allows a deeper more finely grained insight into the process. Thus these BPS figures differ somewhat from My previous analysis determined that the long my previous figures where I estimated that in term annual growth rate for the Papuan 2010 for a combined population of Papua population was 1.84% and that of the non- Province and Papua Barat Province of Papuan population 10.82% for the period from 3,612,854 some 1,730,336 (47.89%) were 3 15 | 2 | 1 APJ | JF Papuan and 1,882,517 (52.10%) were non- uncertainty of the data collected by BPS over Papuan. The new BPS figures now indicate that various census periods. I have derived my the Papuan proportion of the total population of figures from the 1971; 2000 and 2010 censuses Papua and Papua Barat provinces is 66.26%, or and extrapolated growth rates from the 2,409,670 Papuans out of a total population of changes in population numbers between 3,612,854. This means (according to the BPS censuses. It is very possible that: figures) that the historical growth rate of the Papuans for the period 1971-2000 (1.84%) and The 1971 census was inaccurate due to the non-Papuans (10.82%) have changed. the recent takeover of Irian Barat (as the However the total number of Papuans in the territory of West Papua was then 2000 Indonesian census, where there was a officially designated) by the Indonesian breakdown of tribal populations, was 1,505,405 military; the relatively loose state control while the number of Papuans in the 2010 over a vast and wild country and the Indonesian census (Papua and Papua Barat limited resources of the Indonesian state provinces) was 2,409,670.
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