“PAST ANTARCTIC CLIMATE and FUTURE IMPLICATIONS (PACAFI) PROGRAMME”

A White Paper Proposal for Future Investment by the New Zealand Foundation for Research Science and Technology in Antarctic Paleoclimate Research

(a) (b) (c)

(d) (e) (f)

(g) (h) (i) Past Antarctic Climate and Future Implications (PACAFI) Programme

A White Paper Proposal for Future FRST Investment in Antarctic Paleoclimate Research

Prepared by: Dr. Richard Levy, GNS Science, PO Box 30368, Lower Hutt Prof. Tim Naish, Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington Prof. Gary Wilson, Marine Science, University of Otago, PO Box 56, Dunedin

TABLE of CONTENTS

Executive Summary...... 2 1. Rationale and Motivation...... 4 1.1 Understanding Antarctica in the Global Climate System...... 4 1.2 The IPCC Imperative ...... 5 1.3 Antarctic Stratigraphic Drilling...... 7 1.4 The ANDRILL Programme Review...... 9 2. Science Drivers for Future Antarctic Paleoclimate Investigations...... 9 2.1 The Nine Science Priorities ...... 9 3. New Zealand’s Existing Capability and Capability Needs...... 10 3.1 Antarctica New Zealand...... 10 3.2 GNS Science (GNS)...... 10 3.3 Victoria University of Wellington (VUW)...... 11 3.4 University of Otago (UofO)...... 11 3.5 Generic Needs for Investment...... 12 4. Our Competitive Advantage and Maintaining Facilities and People...... 12 5. Relationship of the Proposed PACAFI Programme to Other Currently Funded FRST Antarctic and New Zealand Paleoclimate Programmes...... 13 6. Research Outcomes and Implementation Pathway ...... 14 7. Budget Considerations ...... 15 8. Governance and Management Structure...... 15 9. Research Plan for the Proposed “Past Antarctic Climate and Future Implications (PACAFI) Programme”...... 15 Objective 1: Science Leadership ...... 16 Objective 2: Scientific Drilling Capability...... 16 Objective 3: ANDRILL McMurdo Ice Shelf...... 17 Objective 4: ANDRILL Southern McMurdo Sound...... 17 Objective 5: ANDRILL Coulman High ...... 18 Objective 6: Scientific Preparation for Drilling ...... 20 Objective 7: IODP Wilkes Land Margin ...... 21 Objective 8: Shaldril – Bay of Whales...... 22 Objective 9: IODP Eastern Ross Sea...... 22 Objective 10: ANDRILL Siple Coast ...... 23 Objective 11: ANDRILL Southern McMurdo Ice Shelf ...... 23 Objective 12: East Antarctic Ice Sheet Outlet Glaciers and Fjords ...... 23 Objective 13: Process Studies...... 24 Objective 14: Science Communication ...... 24 10. References...... 27 11. Appendix ...... 30 Appendix 1: 2008 Review of ANDRILL Contract (C05X0410) Appendix 2: ANDRILL Programme MoU

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“Past Antarctic Climate and Future Implications (PACAFI) Programme” A White Paper Proposal for Future FRST Investment in Antarctic Paleoclimate Research

Executive Summary

This White Paper proposal to the New Zealand Foundation of Research Science and Technology (FRST) seeks to enhance New Zealand expertise and international standing in Antarctic paleoclimate research by continuing support of research and leadership into Antarctica’s climate evolution and its global influence. Our international reputation has been heavily leveraged by 30 years of innovative polar drilling technology and Antarctic field operations led by New Zealanders. Any future research programme must incorporate support for both scientific and drilling technology capabilities. Here we provide a path forward for the currently‐funded FRST ANDRILL Programme (CO5X0410), following the successful international panel‐ review in April 2008, to secure a sustainable world‐class capability. It will position New Zealand researchers to take a long‐term leading role. This integrated research plan is presented to the Foundation on behalf of three major New Zealand science providers (GNS Science, Victoria University of Wellington, and Otago University). We anticipate that other institutions (NIWA, and Canterbury University) will be involved.

Our research strategy is designed to resolve sectoral response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and margins of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate perturbations over the past 65 million years, as a guide to assessing future climate change more accurately. Of principal concern is that the future contribution of Antarctic ice to sea‐level rise over the next 100 years is potentially large (1‐2 m by 2100). Yet this science was considered “too uncertain” by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in their 2007 report (IPCC, 2007), which downgraded its upper limit for sea‐level rise over the next 100 years from 0.88 m to 0.57 m by leaving the dynamic contribution from polar ice sheets out of the projection. This is motivating the Antarctic research community to rapidly improve its understanding for the future IPCC assessment reports (AR5 in 2013, AR6 in 2019).

The international research approach The uncertainties surrounding future changes to the Antarctic ice sheets are being addressed by three research strands: (1) Improved Antarctic ice sheet models are being developed for example, through the Community Ice Sheet Model project arising from the U.S.‐led for the past 150 years and future centuries led West Antarctic Ice Sheet Initiative; (2) Longer and more precise records of satellite mass balance observations from both GRACE and InSAR data, which are reducing uncertainties; (3) Geological records of past ice sheet behaviour (such as those recovered by ANDRILL) provide the only physical evidence of past ice sheet dynamics when atmospheric CO2 levels and global temperatures were comparable with those projected for 2100.

The New Zealand research community is currently leading an international initiative aimed at redressing the critical lack of high‐quality paleoclimate records from the Antarctic continental margin. New Zealand paleoclimate researchers (Naish, Levy, Wilson and Barrett) are actively working with drilling programmes (including ANDRILL, Integrated Ocean Drilling Programme [IODP], and Shaldril) as well as climate and ice sheet modelling communities to develop a 20 year research strategy that recognises that Antarctica ice cover has begun to change and time and time is short. Naish and Levy are coordinating an Antarctic drilling futures workshop to be held in conjunction with the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research’s first Antarctic Climate Evolution Symposium in Grenada, Spain in September. The aim is to produce a blueprint for future international collaboration that makes effective use of the available range of drilling platforms and opportunities. This is driven by the need to quantify the physical boundary conditions (e.g. paleogeography, ice extent, oceanic and atmospheric temperatures) for highly sensitive regions of the Antarctic ice sheets (Fig. 1) to better constrain and test ice sheet and climate models.

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Why more Antarctic drilling? New results from the ANDRILL Program, recently published in Nature magazine (Naish et al., 2009; Pollard and DeConto, 2009), provide an important example of how paleoclimate records integrated with climate and ice sheet modelling can help constrain future change. The ANDRILL‐1B drill core reflects an unstable West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Pliocene, 5‐2 million years ago during a time when Earth’s average surface temperature were 3‐4°C warmer than present, and oceans around Antarctica were 5°C warmer ‐ driving global sea‐level changes of up to +7 m above present. The size of these ice volume changes was a surprise and causes concern as they occurred when atmospheric CO2 levels were no higher than ~400 ppm, only slightly lower than present day levels. Our research findings support other recently‐reported studies of the greenhouse world of ~ 50 million years ago, implying a higher ‘climate sensitivity’ than currently accepted (e.g. Huber, 2008), suggesting additional positive feed backs (climate amplifiers), perhaps pre‐conditioned by CO2 levels. Moreover, our knowledge of Antarctic ice sheet behaviour in a high‐CO2 world (2‐4 times pre‐industrial levels, levels that may be reached by 2100), still remains one of the greatest uncertainties. This is important as atmospheric CO2 reconstructions from microfossils for the past 50 million years (e.g. Pagani et al., 2005; Zachos et al., 2008), and global climate models (GCMs) show CO2 as the major influence on Antarctic ice sheet stability (e.g. DeConto and Pollard, 2003) (Fig. 2). There is an immediate imperative to recover Antarctic geological records (e.g. the Coulman High Project) beyond the age‐range of ice cores and the current ANDRILL projects back 30 to 50 million years ago when Earth’s atmospheric CO2 was 2 to 4 times higher than present – the upper end of the IPCC projections for 2100.

Here we outline the justification and rationale for a research plan that addresses nine key science priorities (Section 2), and is aligned with international scientific drilling opportunities in the Ross Sea sector of Antarctica. We outline the shape of a seven year Programme (Past Antarctic Climate and Future Implications – PACAFI) in Table 1, which includes the following objectives (described in Section 9):

(1) Scientific Leadership. Maintaining key collaborations research strategies. (2) Scientific Drilling Capability. Maintaining drilling technical innovation. (3) ANDRILL McMurdo Ice Shelf (MIS) Project. Analysis, interpretation and synthesis of cores. (4) ANDRILL Southern McMurdo Sound (SMS) Project. Analysis, interpretation and synthesis of cores. (5) ANDRILL Coulman High Project. Site survey, drilling, and post‐drilling science. (6) Scientific Preparation for Drilling. Regional context studies for interpreting drill core records. (7) IODP Wilkes Margin Expedition. Shipboard, shore‐based, and post cruise scientific participation. (8) Shaldril Bay of Whales Expedition. Shipboard, shore‐based, and post cruise scientific participation. (9) IODP Eastern Ross Sea Expedition. Development of science proposal and participation in drilling. (10) ANDRILL Siple Coast Project. Site development and environmental surveys. (11) ANDRILL Southern McMurdo Ice Shelf Project (SMIS). Continued environmental surveys. (12) East Antarctic Ice Sheet Outlet Glaciers. Integrated field‐ and modelling‐based glaciological studies. (13) Modern Process Studies. Interpreting drill cores. (14) Science Communication.

Of particular importance is the development of a mechanism to support a long‐term Antarctic paleoclimate drilling and science capability in New Zealand, including staff, facilities and the career development of young researchers. A recent panel‐review of the New Zealand ANDRILL Programme by FRST in April 2008 (Appendix 1), rated its performance as 5‐out‐of‐5 – very strong performance, but highlighted a “fragility” on both the technical and scientific side of the programme in terms of capability that would need to be addressed to maintain our competitive edge. Key issues identified included over‐stretched resources, funding security and succession planning. This White Paper proposal represents a proactive step from the science providers to work with FRST and Antarctica New Zealand to find the appropriate funding mechanism to support and maintain at the appropriate level, this “world class” research and technical capability in New Zealand. We estimate a budget of ~$3M per annum, but do not provide detailed costings here.

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1. Rationale and Motivation

1.1 Understanding Antarctica in the Global Climate System

Antarctica, its ice‐sheets, ice shelves, sea‐ice apron and the encompassing Southern Ocean play a fundamental role in the global climate system. They control the equator‐to‐pole temperature gradient of the Southern Hemisphere, which in turn, drives atmospheric and oceanic circulation directly influencing the climate of New Zealand’s and its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

Antarctica supports two large ice masses that have previously contributed to global sea‐level rise and have the potential to do so in the future (Fig. 1):

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet sits mostly above sea level and has the potential to contribute up to 60 m of future sea level rise. It is high (up to 4000 m above sea‐level), dry and cold, and its mass balance and connection with the climate system is controlled largely by atmospheric processes (temperature). However, the margins of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, which are commonly grounded below sea‐level and make up to 20% of the ice sheet, are considered more vulnerable as they are directly exposed to oceanic melt processes.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is currently pinned below sea level and has the potential to contribute up to +4 m of sea level rise. The mass balance of the largely marine based West Antarctic Ice Sheet is thought to be controlled primarily by ocean melting, although dramatic atmospheric warming in the Antarctic Peninsula of 2.5°C in the past 50 years has seen loss of more than 45,000 km2 of ice shelves, and points to the vulnerability these glacial features.

Antarctic mass balance (satellite altimetry and InSAR)

EAIS = -4±61 Gt/yr

WAIS = -132±60 Gt/yr

Rignot et al. (2008) Nature Geoscience

Figure 1. Antarctic mass balance from satellite measurements as of 2008 showing areas of net loss (red circles) and net gain (blue circles). West Antarctic ice sheet is losing mass. East Antarctic ice sheet is currently in balance. Also shown are regions of ice flow. Note that West Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss during the last 10 years has accelerated by 70% by dynamic processes – accelerated glacier flow and grounding‐line retreat.

Understanding past behaviour of ice‐shelves is important because the break up of these features can affect climate, West Antarctic Ice Sheet volume, and sea level in several ways: (1) Global ocean circulation can be disrupted by an initial large‐scale discharge of low density meltwater, reducing the production of bottom

4 water around Antarctica and causing advection of warm circumpolar deep water onto the continental shelf, thus increasing the vulnerability of ice shelves to basal‐melt; (2) Earth’s albedo will decrease as permanent ice cover is replaced with dark ocean, amplifying regional warming as a consequence; (3) Ice shelves play an important role in buttressing (holding back) the continental glaciers and ice streams behind them from sliding into the ocean; and (4) the exchange of heat and water vapour between the ocean and the atmosphere could lead to accelerated loss and eventual collapse of the marine‐based West Antarctic Ice Sheet in as little time as a few centuries, raising sea‐level by +4 m.

Of primary concern is that the future behaviour of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and marine margins of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, remain poorly constrained and models on which predictions are based need to be constrained by more data from vulnerable sectors that have collapsed in the past under “warmer‐than‐ present” climatic conditions. Obtaining these data from Antarctica’s geological archives and integrating findings with the numerical modelling community is fundamental to the PACAFI research programme.

1.2 The IPCC Imperative

The IPCC Working Group 1, 2007 AR4 Report (IPCC, 2007) states that Antarctica’s ice sheets have contributed to sea level change throughout the past 40 million years. The report also concluded that millennial scale changes in atmospheric CO2 of as little as 25 ppmv during the last 100,000 years are associated with Antarctic warm periods. Beyond this, the report makes it clear that Antarctic ice sheets are the biggest unknown: “Neither the rates nor the processes by which they grew or disintegrated are known well enough”.

Geological evidence suggests that Antarctic ice sheets contributed to global sea‐level rises as high as +9 and +20 m above present 125,000 and 400,000 years ago (Hearty et al., 1999; Blanchon et al., 2009), respectively, under conditions of pre‐industrial greenhouse gas levels. Notwithstanding this, the IPCC decided that the uncertainties surrounding the magnitude of Greenland and West Antarctic ice melt contributions to sea‐level rise in the next 100 years should preclude their inclusion in sea‐level rise projections in the 2007 report. Consequently, the upper limit for 2100 was reduced from +0.88 m (in the 2001 Report) to +0.57 m. Compounding the problem was a growing recognition that marine‐based ice sheets, and ice‐sheets with substantial basal melt‐water, could behave unpredictably, with the possibility of runaway retreat. At the time of publication of the 2007, AR4 Report computer models could not sufficiently resolve the timing, rate, extent and magnitude of these ice sheet changes over centurial time scales. However, projecting the current rate of sea level rise and increasing temperatures Rahmstorf (2007) estimated that the sea level rise by 2100 was likely to lie in the range between 0.6 and 1.4 m. Since then a review by Pfeffer et al. (2008) taking into account the growing body of satellite surface mass balance data showing accelerated rate of ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica, projects sea level rise of between 0.8 and 2.0 m by 2100. A range from +0.8‐+1.2 m by 2100 was recently confirmed as “likely” (75%) by a meeting experts in early March 2001 in Copenhagen aimed at providing the best post‐IPCC (2007) information for the forthcoming emissions target negotiations to be held later in the year.

Another issue of growing concern is the sensitivity of the climate system, and the response of ice sheets to atmospheric CO2 levels greater than 2X pre‐industrial levels. Computer models that explore the range of possible responses can, however, be verified against known boundary conditions (e.g. ice extent, ocean and atmospheric temperature) from past high‐CO2 climates (older than 24 million years ago) by acquiring strategically located geological records adjacent to the ice sheets. The recent ANDRILL Projects in the McMurdo Sound region are powerful examples of the value of this approach. They show that even when CO2 levels were ~400 ppm in the Pliocene (5‐3 million years ago), Earth’s average temperature was less than 3°C higher and West Antarctic Ice Sheet disappeared on several occasions, including one period of several hundred thousand years. This implies a higher “climate sensitivity” than the 3°C commonly assumed for a doubling of pre‐industrial levels (~600 ppm), and suggests it can be amplified by as yet undiscovered factors. Future ANDRILL projects such as the Coulman High Project provide an opportunity for examining Antarctic climate during times when CO2 levels were likely between 600 and 2000 ppmv (Fig. 2). 5

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Figure 2. Proxy data sets illustrating Earth’s environmental variability over the past 60 million years including: A. Eustatic sea‐level curve adapted from Kominz et al. (2008), which reflects the rise and fall of global sea‐level in response to inferred changes in ice volume through time. Horizontal line 1 indicates the amount of global sea‐level rise if both the Greenland Ice Sheet and West Antarctic Ice Sheet were melted and line 2 indicates amount of global sea‐level rise if all present day ice on Earth was melted; B. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels adapted from Pagani et al. (2005). CO2 levels are interpreted from organic biomarkers preserved in ocean sediments. The horizontal dashed red line indicates CO2 levels projected for 2100 AD under the IPCC A2 scenario; and C. Global atmospheric temperature curve (bold red) adapted from Crowley and Kim, 1995, based on deep sea oxygen isotope records. A compilation of these isotope data by Zachos et al. (2008) is shown below the temperature curve and reflects variations in deep ocean temperature and global ice volume. Red bands highlight periods of relative global warmth. Panel D shows gross scale ice sheet history and reconstructions based on deep sea oxygen isotope records and existing geologic data from the circum‐Antarctic. Panel E shows a ‘bar chart’ indicating the geologic time periods previously recovered by ANDRILL (black) and targeted by future drilling projects included in the PACAFI Programme (red). The pale yellow box (dashed yellow border) highlights the period in Earth’s past where CO2 levels and atmospheric temperatures were last at the levels projected for 2100 AD under the IPCC A2 scenario.

1.3 Antarctic Stratigraphic Drilling

Antarctica’s paleoclimate history is recorded, primarily, in two types of geological archive – the ice sheets themselves and the ice proximal sedimentary basins across which the ice sheets have advanced and retreated. The ice sheet records are time restricted (<800,000 years to date) and limited to the recent and geologically anomalous cold period. However they afford annual resolution for at least the last 100 k.y. Sedimentary records around the Antarctic margin extend back much further in time to cover the full range of Antarctic climate variability but with lower resolution, and have accumulated under the combined influence of Antarctica’s ice sheets and Southern Ocean processes, and therefore, have the proven potential to provide a unique understanding of the interaction of oceanic and ice sheet influences on the global climate system (Naish et al., 2009).

Access to these sedimentary archives is technologically and logistically challenging. Through the ANDRILL Program, New Zealand has taken a leadership role both in developing the technology and the science requirements with its partners Antarctica New Zealand, the Science Drilling Office at Victoria University, and FRST. We focus on the Ross Sea (New Zealand’s) sector of Antarctic because: (1) the region has records of both East and West Antarctic ice sheets; (2) the region encompasses the world’s largest (Ross) ice shelf, and generates most of the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) that drives Pacific Ocean circulation; and (3) it is easily serviced by the logistics hub at McMurdo Station and Scott Base.

A large part of the programme proposed here is focussed on developing research tools to recover and examine geologic records and interpret these records in terms of environmental change in Antarctica and identify the factors that control these changes. ANDRILL has now successfully completed recovery of two long (>1000 m) cores, one from beneath the McMurdo Ice Shelf (e.g. Naish et al., 2007), and one from the floating sea ice of southern McMurdo Sound (Harwood et al., 2009). The technical achievement and quality of the cores, the success of the science programme, the opportunity for training, international collaboration and education and outreach have been recognised by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) through the Antarctic Climate Evolution Project, and all have featured as major achievements of the International Polar Year (IPY, 2007‐2008). Hillary Clinton, U.S. Secretary of State, in her address to the 2009 Antarctic Consultative Treaty System Meeting in Baltimore specifically identified ANDRILL as a major IPY success.

The scientific and technical expertise and experience developed by New Zealander’s through the ANDRILL Program allows better access, involvement and leverage in a wider number of international programmes that can contribute to accessing and studying Antarctica’s marginal sedimentary basins. These include participation in the International Ocean Drilling Program (IODP), which has a long legacy of drilling into the sea floor using riserless technology and more recently with the addition of sea‐riser technology. Visits of the ships to Antarctic waters have become more frequent following the success of ANDRILL and preceding

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Antarctic stratigraphic drilling projects. The National Science Foundation have also embarked on a new ship‐based Antarctic margin drilling programme (Shaldril) and Antarctic programmes continue to search for new platforms of opportunity to advance marine geological and geophysical research (e.g. IODP).

This proposal supports New Zealand’s scientific participation in the next ANDRILL drilling initiative – the Coulman High Project which aims to recover a record of both East Antarctic Ice Sheet and West Antarctic Ice Sheet behaviour in a high CO2 world (as discussed above). A preliminary schedule aims for drilling in 2012‐2013 and the second site in 2013‐2014. The U.S.‐National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs have funded (through the stimulus package) a programme of additional site surveys (sub‐ice shelf sediments, over‐snow seismic and oceanographic surveys) and technological development with a field season scheduled for 2010‐2011. Note the U.S. stimulus funds are insufficient to cover the range of required site survey activities. New Zealand will need to contribute to the site survey operations and science (Pers. Com. Dr Frank Rack, U.S. ANDRILL Executive Director). A EuroANDRILL proposal is pending with the European Science Foundation that will enable a consortium of 8 European countries to engage in the ANDRILL Coulman High Project.

This proposal to FRST is not limited to ANDRILL. Rather, it presents an integrated strategy and timeline for Antarctic paleoclimate drilling that is aligned with the goals of international community involving a staged approach using a range of drilling platforms. It also adds value to archived core material from previous projects. Our alignment with other international scientists and stakeholders has come about through involvement on, and leadership of, international committees (SCAR Antarctic Climate Evolution Project Executive Committee; ANDRILL Science Committee; Integrated Ocean Drilling Program). This is where the co‐ordinated strategy and prioritisation for future geological drilling on and around the periphery of Antarctica is developed. Currently ANDRILL Program, Shaldril Program, and IODP all have proposals supported, or pending support, to recover Antarctic paleoclimatic archives. All these drilling platforms have their strengths and weaknesses. For example IDOP is versatile in that it can drill the ocean floor almost anywhere (ice permitting), but the core recovery is poor (often less than 50% in glacial sediments). ANDRILL achieves 98% recovery but is restricted to floating ice or land platforms.

The same rationale and urgency described above is driving the international community to define and prioritise drilling of sites around Antarctica and in the Southern Ocean. This is required to extract the best history from the most sensitive regions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and East Antarctic Ice Sheet in order to understand their behaviour during past warm intervals. To this end we (Levy and Naish) will be convening a workshop in September 2009 on future drilling co‐ordination when the community meets at the SCAR Antarctic Climate Evolution meeting in Grenada, Spain.

As part of this plan IODP will drill in January‐March 2010 off Wilkes Land for a long term climate history of a part of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet that is currently losing mass. The next drilling project with our involvement will be a series of short cores in Eastern Ross Sea by the U.S.‐National Science Foundation‐ funded Shaldril Program in 2012 to recover the early history of West Antarctic Ice Sheet. These cores will provide valuable context for an IODP proposal (recently submitted) to drill in Eastern Ross Sea in ~2014 being led by U.S. collaborators and by Levy at GNS. The aim of this drilling is to recover a direct history of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet ice streams to test and complement the inferred West Antarctic Ice Sheet history from the ANDRILL MIS cores (Naish et al., 2009). We anticipate having New Zealand scientists onboard these IODP cruises. By this time (2013‐15) ANDRILL will be ready to drill on the edge of the Ross Ice Shelf in Central Ross Sea at Coulman High for a Paleogene record of Antarctic climate. This will be followed by further drilling for high resolution Neogene records adjacent to the Siple coast of West Antarctic on the fast‐flowing margin of Ross Ice Shelf.

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1.4 The ANDRILL Programme Review

In 2008 the Foundation for Research Science and Technology conducted a peer review of the New Zealand ANDRILL Programme (Appendix 1). The review recognised the high level of success in the technological and scientific aspects of the programme and the high value of the findings to the international community particularly in relation to the current level of uncertainty regarding Antarctica’s behaviour in a warmer world.

The review also recognised the value New Zealand scientists, technicians, engineers and administrators are adding to the international programme through leadership in each of these areas. The programme has also built capacity through the attraction and retention of very well qualified scientists to New Zealand institutions and through development of world‐class analytical facilities previously not available in New Zealand.

Despite assessing the programme overall as category 5 (“Very Strong Performance, little room for improvement”), the review, recognised a level of fragility which needs to be addressed in order to maximise future benefit to New Zealand. This particularly refers to strengthening the infrastructural support (for both scientific and technical expertise as well as access to capability) in New Zealand to ensure its continuity and growth.

The review suggested several aspects that should be addressed in the next phase of Antarctic paleoclimate research. These aspects include the need to improve technology further to access sites closer to the faster moving and more dynamic West Antarctic Ice Sheet, as this was the direction that science was driving future investigation. The review also highlighted the need for greater effort in the area of sedimentary basin investigations, from their discovery and delineation to development of interpretive tools to provide better understanding of the processes that contribute to the formation of the sedimentary archives. It was also highlighted in the review that, whereas ANDRILL is able to provide unparalleled quality and continuity of record, other drilling programmes operated in parallel will provide greater geographic access and understanding.

2. Science Drivers for Future Antarctic Paleoclimate Investigations

During the panel‐review of the ANDRILL Programme, the following priorities were identified and recommended for address in a future Antarctic paleoclimate programme. These priorities derive from the rationale outlined in the previous sections, around which the present research plan is focused (see Section 9). In order to address these priorities and questions the proposed programme will obtain and utilise geological records integrated with coupled ocean‐atmosphere‐ice sheet computer models to connect with three major components of the Antarctic cryospheric system:

• The East Antarctic Ice Sheet history and behaviour; • The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (including its ice streams and ice shelves) history and behaviour; and • The Southern Ocean history and behaviour (including the development of sea‐ice and ocean currents).

2.1 The Nine Science Priorities

Use well‐dated, strategically‐located geological records that directly sample past Antarctic ice sheet dynamics to:

1. Determine the range of temporal and spatial variability of the marine‐based West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the low elevation margins of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (e.g. ice extent, ice volume and contribution to global sea‐level, thermal condition) that may occur due to changes in Earth’s 9

climate (atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, sea‐surface and land temperatures) projected for coming decades and centuries; 2. Determine the structural, tectonic and geological boundary conditions (e.g. paleogeography) during past ice sheet oscillations; 3. Determine the effect of ice sheet/shelf variability on the regional extent of sea‐ice, oceanic conditions (e.g. temperature and salinity), water mass variability and ocean circulation; 4. Determine the broader impacts of ice sheet/shelf and climate variability on ocean circulation processes within the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and its Southern Ocean gyres and investigate the downstream influences on global thermohaline circulation (e.g. as tracked along the Eastern Margin of New Zealand by previous ocean drilling). Collaborate and integrate with FRST Global Change through Time (GCT) and Antarctica‐New Zealand Interglacial Climate Extremes (ANZICE) programmes (Fig. 3); and 5. Determine the relative influence of local insolation‐driven atmospheric warming vs oceanic warming on ice sheet/ice shelf variability.

Integrate climate and ice sheet proxy data (e.g. ice extent, frequency of variability, rate of variability, sea‐surface temperature, air temperature, basal hydrology, paloegeography) from well‐dated geological records with the latest generation of coupled ice sheet‐climate models to:

6. Determine the thresholds and climate sensitivities (e.g., CO2 concentrations, tectonic, local insolation intensity, positive degree days, ocean temperature) that lead to local, regional and continental scale growth and collapse of the marine‐based West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the low elevation margins of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet; 7. Determine the rates of ice‐sheet/ice shelf variability at a range of spatial and temporal variations. Can non‐linear ‘runaway’ processes be identified? Can the most vulnerable/sensitive regions be identified? At high resolution does the Antarctic ice margin respond synchronously?; 8. Determine Antarctic ice volume contributions to global sea‐level change at a range of temporal and spatial scales and reconcile with ‘far‐field’ sea‐level evidence (e.g. oxygen isotope record, sequence stratigraphy and uplifted paleoshorelines); and 9. Resolve the relative roles of East and West Antarctic Ice Sheet‐ice dynamics in controlling the variability and sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheet system. Reconcile the contrasting modes of behaviour displayed by East and West Antarctic Ice Sheets.

3. New Zealand’s Existing Capability and Capability Needs

3.1 Antarctica New Zealand

Existing • Proven ability to provide operational and logistical management of multinational Antarctic scientific drilling programmes; • Key international partnerships with Antarctic programmes.

3.2 GNS Science (GNS)

Existing • Proven ability to effectively manage large national research contracts; • National and international scientific leadership; • Basin evaluation geophysics (multichannel seismic acquisition, processing and interpretation, gravity, passive seismology, GPS); • Geochronology (radiocarbon dating, strontium isotope dating, stable isotopes, PIXE); • Sedimentology, stratigraphy, and palaeoclimatology;

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• Past‐environments, paleontology, and biostratigraphy (radiolaria, foraminifera, pollen, dinoflagellates, molluscs); • Global and regional tectonic processes; • Regional geologic mapping (QMAP Southern Victoria Land); • Integrated and quantitative chronostratigraphy; • Science communication and outreach.

Needs • Diatom paleontology and biostratigraphy; • Global climate modelling (paleoclimate).

3.3 Victoria University of Wellington (VUW)

Existing • National and international scientific leadership;; • Scientific Drilling Office (project management, drill system and camp design, polar and drilling operations); • Basin evaluation geophysics (multichannel seismic acquisition, processing and interpretation, gravity); • Sedimentology, stratigraphy, glacimarine processes; • Paleoceanography and palaeoclimatology; • Past‐environments, paleontology and biostratigraphy (dinoflagellates, pollen); • Regional tectonic processes; • Geochemistry (Mg/Ca paleothermometry, Pb‐isotope dating, LA‐ICPMS mass spectrometry); • Glacier and ice sheet numerical modelling, intermediate complexity coupled global climate modelling; • Glaciology and geomorphology; • Science communication and outreach.

Needs • Support for Scientific Drilling Office; • Organic (biomarker) geochemistry for paleothermometry.

3.4 University of Otago (UofO)

Existing • National and international scientific leadership; • Environmental magnetism, paleomagnetism and magnetostratigraphy; • Stratigraphy and sedimentology; • Integrated geophysical methods and modelling (gravity, magnetics and active source seismology); • Metamorphic and igneous petrology; • Glaciology; • Surveying including GPS and other satellite methods; • Integrated chronostratigraphy; • Science communication and outreach.

In development • Physical properties methods and integrated time series analysis.

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3.5 Generic Needs for Investment

• Drilling technology development, which is key to allow exploration in previously inaccessible, yet sensitive, locations (support for R & D not including capital expenditure); • Continued development of geophysical techniques and surveys for remote sensing beneath grounded and floating ice; • Process studies for core interpretation; • Ongoing development of chronostratigraphic tools to tie Antarctic records to downstream locations; • Other fieldwork where outcrop is available.

4. Our Competitive Advantage and Maintaining Facilities and People

New Zealand’s competitive advantage lies in several key capabilities and leading interdisciplinary approaches. Each of these areas is world class and encompasses where we have taken leadership in international scientific collaborations. ANDRILL has been key to their development: • Scientific leadership; • Operations and logistical support and project management (Antarctica New Zealand, Science Drilling Office at VUW); • Polar drilling technology and innovation (VUW, Webster Drilling and Exploration); • Paleontology/paleoecology (GNS, VUW); • Sedimentology/paleoclimatology (GNS, VUW); • Physical Properties/paleomagnetism (UofO, VUW); • Oversnow geophysics/remote sensing (GNS, UofO, VUW); • Marine geophysics (GNS, UofO, VUW); • Environmental geochemistry and radioisotopic dating (VUW, GNS); • Age model development and chronostratigraphy (GNS, UofO, VUW); • Paleoceanography, oceanic processes (VUW, NIWA); • Glacial geomorphology (VUW, UofO); • Glacial and global climate modelling (VUW); • Education and outreach (VUW, GNS, UofO, NIWA).

According to the FRST panel‐review of the ANDRILL Programme, several niche areas were identified as vulnerable and resource‐limited and some areas needed new investment. • The technical drilling leadership and innovation in the Scientific Drilling Office needs secure financial support to ensure succession planning for Pyne and that New Zealand continues to leverage scientific involvement and leadership. Darcy Mandeno has been employed as an engineer with the Scientific Drilling Office to support Pyne and train as his potential succession. Support is needed for Falconer to ensure ongoing business/project management capability. • Scientific leadership shown by Wilson and Naish was in danger of becoming over‐stretched without resources for project management support and careful succession planning to maintain key scientific capabilities. Note Levy (ANDRILL Staff Scientist, University of Nebraska) was employed in late 2008 by GNS Science to replace Naish and provide additional scientific leadership. • Increased investment in new geochemical capability at VUW, especially the development of organic geochemical temperature proxies (biomarkers, TEX86, Uk37). • Note that strategic appointments to strengthen capacity issues identified in the ANDRILL Programme review are not sustainable at the existing level of funding.

What does New Zealand need to do to support and maintain its competitive advantage? • Maintain expertise in Antarctic sediment core recovery and analysis.

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• Maintain key capabilities that give us competitive advantage (geochemistry, core physical properties, paleomagnetic analysis, chronostratigraphy, environmental cycle and time series analysis). • Continue analysis of ANDRILL MIS and SMS cores as well as existing cores from the Cape Roberts Project, CIROS, MSSTS, and Ocean Drilling and Deep Sea Drilling projects. • Participate in Antarctic IODP projects – Wilkes Land leg and development of a Ross Sea Proposal. • Participate in and lead Coulman High Drilling. • Continued international leadership in ANDRILL. • Undertake geophysical, remote sensing, modelling and other fieldwork associated with potential future drilling targets. • Participate in and drive new directions and priorities in Antarctic scientific drilling.

5. Relationship of the Proposed PACAFI Programme to Other Currently Funded FRST Antarctic and New Zealand Paleoclimate Programmes

Figure 3. Inter‐relationships between the proposed PACAFI Programme outlined here and existing FRST Antarctic and New Zealand paleoclimate programmes in terms of both geological time and Southern Hemisphere latitude. Note that Antarctic ice core climatology objectives have been broken out of the ANZICE and GCT programmes and are grouped together.

In Figure 3 we show how the FRST investments in paleoclimate research are spread over space (Southern Hemisphere) and through geological time. This helps highlight some clear research niches. The NIWA programmes focus on high‐resolution ocean and atmospheric change from around New Zealand, through the Southern Ocean and around Antarctic for the past 1000 years. The GNS Science‐GCT Programme is the major deep‐time programme focused on paleoclimate archives from New Zealand and the Southwest Pacific Ocean and is contracted to 2016. The University of Otago paleomagnetic research facility transitional funding finished in June 2008 but development continues through short term subcontracts and Marsden Fund support and presently also complements aspects of the GCT and NIWA programmes. The 13

VUW‐ANZICE programme is more specific and focuses on past warm extremes of climate between 100,000 and 1,000,000 years before present, with an emphasis on linking Southern Ocean and Southwest Pacific Ocean climate records to the New Zealand region (contracted to 2011). The new PACAFI programme would occupy the Antarctic deep‐time space and be complementary to the GCT and ANZICE programmes linking Antarctic climate processes and drivers to New Zealand, Southern Hemisphere and global climate.

6. Research Outcomes and Implementation Pathway

The research outcomes from the proposed research plan have the following three strands progressing from data acquisition to high‐level application and uptake.

1. Well dated physical evidence of past West Antarctic Ice Sheet, East Antarctic Ice Sheet, ice shelves and associated sea‐ice variability over the range of climatic conditions projected by IPCC, 4th Assessment Report, 2007 including: • Sea‐ice extent variability; • Sea surface temperatures; • Mean‐annual air temperatures; • Ocean salinity; • Ocean productivity and paleoecology; • Ice sheet extent over a range of spatial and temporal scales; • Ice sheet volume over a range of spatial and temporal scales; • Contribution of Antarctic ice volume to global sea‐level over a range of spatial and temporal scales; • Thermal changes in the ice sheets over a range of spatial and temporal scales; • Meltwater variability and changes in subglacial hydrology; • Constraints on paleogeography; and • Changes in water mass variability and ocean circulation of a range of spatial and temporal scales.

2. Integration of data with ice sheet, oceanographic and global climate models to assess sensitivity and variability of ice sheets/shelves and sea ice to a range of climatic boundary conditions projected by IPCC, 4th Assessment Report, 2007 including: • Refined estimates of past Antarctic ice volume and extent, the contribution of Antarctic ice volume to the global volume ice budget and global sea‐level change; • Refined estimates of rates and magnitudes of ice volume changes over a range of spatial and temporal scales; • Improved understanding of climate system thresholds and sensitivities in terms of the (in)stability of the Antarctic ice sheet system; • Improved predictive capacity of the rates, magnitude and regional variability of future Antarctic ice sheet behaviour; and • Improved predictive capacity of the likely far‐field influences of Antarctic ice sheets on ocean circulation and sea‐level.

3. Uptake by IPCC for AR5 Report and the Antarctic Treaty system for improved climate prediction and planning, so that New Zealand can maintain its international research standing at intergovernmental fora, and more effectively future‐proof itself for the consequences of global warming.

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7. Budget Considerations

We estimate a cost of ~$3M per annum for the proposed research programme outlined in Section 9, which contains 14 objectives. This budget is based on staff time and resources in the current ANDRILL Programme, but is costed at current rates. However, we have expanded the ANDRILL programme based on: (1) recommendations of the panel‐review to provide for additional support for over‐stretched capabilities; and (2) new science drivers. Additional costs include an 0.75FTE for the Science Drilling Office at Victoria University, and sufficient resources to continue New Zealand scientific leadership in Antarctic paleoclimate research. The appointments of Levy (science leadership) and Mandeno (technical support) were as a direct consequence of the panel review. This has been done within the present budget, and is not sustainable without additional funds. The budget also requires new funding for New Zealand participation in the ANDRILL Coulman High Project, Shaldril, Antarctic IODP projects, and development of other key high‐ priority research objectives such as the ANDRILL Siple Coast project. The budget estimate also includes funds for the development of new and emerging researchers, and strengthening of niche capabilities. We also seek funding to support New Zealand expertise in Ross Embayment oceanography (e.g. NIWA) that will complement existing research, and open up a significant research niche in the ANDRILL Coulman High Project, linking drill core records to modern ice shelf and oceanographic processes. This White Paper does not provide a detailed costing of staff time and direct costs. A detailed budget will be developed based on the FRST response to this White Paper.

8. Governance and Management Structure

In Appendix 2 we provide a copy of the MoU of the current ANDRILL Programme, which outlines the existing governance and management structure, and we suggest that this model would be suitable for the new PACAFI Programme. Given the FRST requirement for a “single point of accountability” for its investments, the ANDRILL Programme combined existing programmes at GNS Science, VUW and UofO into a single programme with additional funding that was managed by GNS Science. The MoU outlines a schedule of payments to the partners and subcontracts to NIWA and the University of Canterbury. Over all scientific management/leadership, delivery of outputs, addressing outcomes and reporting was managed jointly by the lead PIs (Naish, Barrett and Wilson). In addition, a Science Management Advisory Board was set up constituting the lead PIs and research manager from each of the 3 primary organisations. The board met twice a year. The ANDRILL Programme was managed as a partnership between the lead institutions although GNS Science was the contracting institution.

9. Research Plan for the Proposed “Past Antarctic Climate and Future Implications (PACAFI) Programme”

We have designed a seven year research strategy that addresses nine key science priorities (Section 2 above). We target geographic areas in the Ross Sea region that encompass one or more of the following criteria: (1) incorporate sectors of the West and East Antarctic Ice Sheets that are highly sensitive to climate change and vulnerable to increasing temperature; (2) provide access to archives of ice sheet behaviour in a ‘high‐CO2 world’; (3) are covered by well‐dated, high‐quality geophysical data; and (4) can be drilled with moderate enhancement of existing and proven coring/drilling technology. Integration of geologic data recovered from each of the target regions will allow us to address the magnitude, timing, causes, and effects of change in ice sheet configuration across the Ross Sea at various key time intervals. This research strategy will facilitate a major advance in our understanding of the evolution of West Antarctica and the Ross Sea and will enhance our understanding of the response of vulnerable sections of the West and East Antarctic Ice Sheets during periods of global warmth. We outline the shape of the PACAFI Programme in Table 1. The research strategy focuses on the Ross Embayment region and Figure 4 shows areas to be targeted either for drilling, fieldwork or glaciological modelling studies. Below we summarise the general

15 scope and key contributions of fourteen objectives. Specific details including tasks and milestones in which New Zealand scientists, engineers, and educators might be involved will be established following feedback on this White Paper and results of ongoing international and national discussions. However, we anticipate that New Zealand participation in the research programme outlined below will be aligned with the capabilities presented in Section 3.

Figure 4. Geographic regions where research objectives and projects within the PACAFI Programme will be focused including: Integrated Ocean Drilling Program – Wilkes Land Margin (IODP‐WL); East Antarctic Ice Sheet Outlet Glaciers and Fjords (EAIS‐OGF); Coulman High Project (CHP); Integrated Ocean Drilling Program – Eastern Ross Sea (IODP‐ERS); Shaldril Bay of Whales (BW); and Siple Coast. Existing drill sites are indicated by black dots and proposed sites by yellow dots. Key structural elements in the Ross Sea include: Victoria Land Basin (VLB); Coulman High (CH); Central Trough (CT); and Eastern Basin (EB).

Objective 1: Science Leadership

Naish, Wilson, and Levy are key players in the management and administration of New Zealand’s participation in ANDRILL and IODP at both national and international levels. They also provide key science leadership within the international framework of these programs. National participation in these programs requires membership on steering committees and panels including the ANDRILL Science Committee, Coulman High ANDRILL Science Implementation Committee and SCAR’s Antarctic Climate Evolution Committee.

Objective 2: Scientific Drilling Capability

Highly effective drilling technology and a well‐designed on‐ice drilling operation were fundamental to the success of ANDRILL’s recently completed drilling projects. Staff members at the Scientific Drilling Office at Victoria University were central to this success. Modifications to the existing ANDRILL system are now 16 required for the new phase of sub‐ice shelf geological drilling at Coulman High. A scoping plan has been developed by Pyne and Falconer (see accompanying document) for research and development needs to enable us to establish the most viable drilling approach and keep to proposed timelines. The Scientific Drilling Capability Objective has been established to provide support for staff members at the Science Drilling Office so that they can: (1) conduct research and development for drill system operations on a fast‐ moving ice shelf; (2) develop an initial project plan in consultation with National Antarctic Programs so that we can work to establish the requisite international consortium agreement to support the operational phase of the Coulman High project; and (3) develop requisite technology for key objectives outlined in the PACAFI Program.

Alex Pyne is internationally recognized for his expertise in scientific drilling operations in frozen regions. Pyne has previously provided consultation to both the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program and International Continental Drilling Program and has been asked to act as a consultant for the Shaldril Bay of Whales Project. We seek support for Pyne’s time and will use this as an in‐kind contribution as part of the New Zealand’s involvement in the Bay of Whales Project. The in‐kind contribution will facilitate New Zealand scientific involvement in the Project.

Objective 3: ANDRILL McMurdo Ice Shelf

The AND‐1B core (Fig. 4) is a unique archive of West Antarctic ice sheet behaviour over the past fourteen million years. Much research has already been undertaken to characterise the core and generate key scientific data to allow interpretation of both regional and global environmental signals (e.g. Naish et al., 2007, 2008, 2009; McKay et al., 2009). These data have been partially integrated with ice sheet models that identify how the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and margins of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet responded to a variety of climate forcings over the past five million years. While we have completed a relatively comprehensive evaluation of the broad environmental and tectonic signals preserved in the younger part of the core, a focus on specific time intervals and the older section in the core is now required. A common problem with scientific drilling projects is that the funding often finishes before the scientific ‘paydirt’ can by fully realised. As such we seek support for the following new tasks over and above our contracted milestones: Early Pliocene climate and future analogues; Termination of Pliocene warmth and establishment of ‘modern’ bipolar climate; Late Miocene climate; Neogene tectono‐stratigraphic evolution of the VLB/Terror Rift; link to distal records of sea level and climate based on high resolution correlation models.

Objective 4: ANDRILL Southern McMurdo Sound

The AND‐2A core (Fig. 4) provides a unique record of ice sheet behaviour at the margins of the East and West Antarctic Ice Sheets during the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO), a significant period of global warmth. Most of this record pre‐dates that recovered in the AND‐1B core but contains significant overlap. Together the cores provide a detailed history of ice sheet behaviour over the past 20 million years. Initial studies of the AND‐2A core have been completed and scientific integration is advancing (Harwood et al., 2009). We seek an extension of Southern McMurdo Sound Project funding to continue New Zealand research involvement in ongoing studies of this core that are outlined in the existing FRST contract. A number of these milestones may not be reached within the timeframe of the current contract. In April, 2010, the Southern McMurdo Sound Project Research Team will gather for the first time since early 2008 to share research results and integrate outcomes. This meeting will provide a platform to mesh the older record from Southern McMurdo Sound with the McMurdo Ice Shelf Project results. By integrating data from the two cores we will be able to develop a robust understanding of ice sheet behaviour during peak warmth in the early Miocene (17‐15 Ma) through a major global cooling in the middle Miocene (14‐13 Ma), return to warmth in the late Miocene ‐ early Pliocene (10‐3 Ma) and final transition to our current cool climate and polar conditions in Antarctica (see Fig. 2).

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Objective 5: ANDRILL Coulman High

The primary geologic target for Coulman High drilling is a sequence of sedimentary rocks deposited between ~45 and 20 million years ago. These rocks record a history West Antarctica through a time in which the Earth’s climate passed several key steps including the transition from a greenhouse world when global atmospheric temperatures were 4‐6°C warmer than present and atmospheric CO2 levels were at least twice pre‐industrial levels (i.e. 600 ppmv and possibly much higher).

Current efforts within the ANDRILL Program seek to initiate the first project of the ANDRILL Ross Embayment Portfolio (REP) by moving drilling operations east of Ross Island to Coulman High (Fig. 4) and developing a capability to operate from a fast moving ice shelf platform (~700 m/year lateral movement) using offset holes accomplished by coring and fast drilling, or by re‐entry into a single borehole. Demonstrating this capability will put additional sites beneath the Ross Ice Shelf within ANDRILL’s reach.

The geological evolution of the West Antarctic continent during the Cenozoic (past 65 million years) likely had profound impacts on global and regional climate evolution. Climate and ice sheet models require basic paleogeographic and paleoenvironmental constraints. Central questions to be addressed by drilling at Coulman High include: When did the current West Antarctic Ice Sheet form? Where has global ice volume been accommodated through time and which ice sheets varied in size to control Cenozoic global sea level? How did West Antarctic Ice Sheet respond to climate forcings in the Paleogene or what forcings drove West Antarctic Ice Sheet variability in the Eocene, Oligocene and Early Miocene? Did the nature of West Antarctic Ice Sheet behaviour fundamentally change over the Oligocene/Miocene boundary in response to CO2 ‘stabilization’? How did West Antarctic Ice Sheet behave through the period of global warmth in the late Oligocene? Did West Antarctic Ice Sheet initially form on an elevated landmass that subsequently subsided? What was the eustatic contribution of local West Antarctic ice caps on isolated blocks prior to their subsidence below sea level?

Recovery of Eocene to lower Miocene (~ 45 to 20 million years ago) sediments and strata will allow us to address these questions as testable drilling objectives. Primary tasks for the Coulman High Objective include the following: Site Survey activities; Drill season science 1 and 2; post drilling science; and synthesis and integration.

Site survey activities (2010‐11) Drilling operations requirements

A series of activities including hot water drill testing, water current measurements, remotely operated submersible vehicle testing, global positioning system surveys, ground penetrating radar surveys, and snow surface engineering analyses are required to develop the ANDRILL system for operation on a fast moving ice shelf. These tests and surveys will likely be conducted through collaboration between logistics providers from the U.S. and New Zealand Antarctic programmes. Involvement of experienced staff from the Scientific Drilling Office at VUW is critical for the short‐ term success of the Coulman High Project and longer‐term goals for continued drilling at locations across the Ross Ice Shelf.

Over‐Ice seismic survey

Over‐ice seismic data are required to enhance our interpretation of the existing marine seismic data. Up to three new crossing lines will be collected in 2010‐11. This effort will be led by our U.S. colleagues but will have New Zealand scientific participation. These new seismic data will be used to enhance our understanding of the three dimensional geologic structure at the Coulman High site and will provide key information for drilling safety assessment. Velocity experiments will also be conducted and are required to produce a drilling prognosis to guide project planning and drilling operations. 18

Sub‐ice shelf oceanography

Water current measurements from beneath the ice shelf at the Coulman High sites are required for drilling operations. These water current data will be collected by oceanographers at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute through a contract with the University of Nebraska‐Lincoln. The Coulman High site survey presents a valuable opportunity to obtain a suite of additional oceanographic measurements to couple processes in the sub‐ice shelf ocean with those in the open ocean via direct observations. This research will be conducted by staff at NIWA in collaboration with scientists at Florida State University in the United States. The project will:

1. Assess the tidal, seasonal, and interannual variability of the water column structure and transport across the ice front, including influences on and response to ice shelf basal melt, sea ice formation and operation of the Ross Sea Polynya; 2. Investigate the transition scales between pure cavity‐ and ocean‐influenced waters and the wider implications of the fluxes between these regimes; and 3. Characterise the under ice shelf boundary layer, heat transport across this layer, and scales of vertical mixing throughout the water column.

To achieve these goals, we propose a scientific package that would have high scientific impact, is within our present capability, and can be achieved with a light logistical load:

1. Instrumented moorings that complement the work undertaken for ANDRILL engineering requirements, and will make the science goals possible; 2. Intensive temperature/salinity and turbulence profiling to assess water column short‐term variability and response to tidal forcing; 3. Oceanic geochemistry to assess basal melt activity, to identify different water masses and their sources, and assist with interpretation of sediment data; and 4. Modelling circulation in the southern Ross Sea, to link Coulman High observations and the wider Ross Sea, including the cavity under the Ross Ice Shelf.

Sub ice‐shelf sediments

Short sediment cores will be collected from beneath the ice shelf at the Coulman High site from (at least) two locations. These cores will be logged and processed using standard procedures and techniques including sedimentology, micropaleontology, physical properties measurements, and environmental magnetism. Geochemical analysis on remains of carbonate and siliceous organisms will also be conducted to determine sea surface temperatures. The main goal of this study is to examine grounding line‐calving line dynamics from the Last Glacial Maximum (~ 18 thousand years ago) to the present day. In addition, short cores will be collected for a study on in‐situ microbiological communities (bacteria) and lipids.

Drill season science 1 and 2 (2012‐13, 2013‐14) Coulman High drilling will be conducted over two seasons. We anticipate that New Zealand scientific participation will be at similar levels to the previous two ANDRILL Projects (i.e. 20‐25% of the science team).

Post‐drilling science A series of specific tasks that examine Paleogene glacial and tectonic history of West Antarctica will be integrated into this task as the full scope of Coulman High Science is developed. This research will be conducted during the period following the drill season and leading up to the science integration workshop for each Coulman High drilling project. Key outcomes will include publication of papers in thematic science volumes and other high profile journals.

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Synthesis and integration A series of specific tasks that examine Paleogene glacial and tectonic history of West Antarctica will be integrated into this task as the full scope of Coulman High Science is developed. This research will be conducted during the period following the science integration workshop for each Coulman High drilling project. Key outcomes will include publication of papers in thematic science volumes and other high profile journals.

Objective 6: Scientific Preparation for Drilling

A successful Antarctic drilling project requires significant pre‐drilling preparation, which not only includes collection of site survey data but also involves development of tools to enhance scientific outcomes. As part of the Scientific Preparation for Drilling Project we propose to carry out the following tasks:

Paleogene chronostratigraphic framework The ability to understand and model past climatic conditions and tectonic events in Antarctica depends critically upon reconstructing the stratigraphic record of that past time through precise chronostratigraphy. Recovery and integration of bio‐, magneto‐ and chemostratigraphic data, as well as radiometric dates from geologic sections obtained over the past 30 years from the continental margin of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean has augmented our understanding of regional chronostratigraphy. Marine diatoms are dominant in high latitude late Paleogene and Neogene sections and provide critical biostratigraphic age constraints (e.g. Harwood and Maruyama, 1992; Censarek and Gersonde, 2002; Zielinski and Gersonde, 2002; Bohaty et al., 2003, Roberts et al., 2003 Stickley et al., 2004; Olney et al., 2007). Recent quantitative approaches in diatom biostratigraphy using Constrained Optimisation (CONOP) have enhanced chronostratigraphic resolution for Neogene sections and can provide age control to ± 50 thousand years, (Wilson et al., 2007a; Cody et al., 2008; Naish et al., 2008; 2009).

To prepare for the Coulman High Project we will continue to develop this high precision chronostratigraphic database to include chronostratigraphic data (biostratigraphy, paleomagnetic reversal stratigraphy, geochronology) from Paleogene sections in the Ross Sea and southwest Pacific. This enhanced composite standard will be applied to new stratigraphic sections obtained by drilling during Coulman High and Shaldril Bay of Whales (see objective 6) and will help constrain the age of cored strata. In addition to diatoms, palynomorphs will be included in the study as they will likely be critical for age constraint and regional correlation for Eocene and older strata. Paleogene marine palynomorph biostratigraphy is well‐developed in the Southern Ocean (e.g. Wrenn and Hart, 1988; Hannah et al., 2001; Brinkhuis et al., 2003a and b) and will be incorporated in the CONOP analysis. An integral part of developing the Paleogene portion of the chronostratigraphic database will involve a re‐evaluation and update of fossil taxonomy in existing biostratigraphic data sets and examination of additional sections as required.

New techniques and methodologies Variation in marine temperature is the primary control on advance and retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The current model indicates that oceanic warming of 3‐5°C can cause complete collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Water temperature data are critical to test and constrain the existing ice sheet model(s). Sea surface temperature measurement tools are currently being developed at VUW using laser ablation mass spectrometry. These techniques analyse the chemical composition of skeletal material from marine organisms preserved in sediment cores. We will continue to develop the technique and analyse material from existing core material and will work to improve results from core and outcrop recovered during future drilling and field‐based efforts.

High‐resolution chronology and understanding of ice sheet and climate behaviour on centennial to millennial timescales (100 – 1000 years) requires the recognition and application of cyclical behaviour in environmental signatures. A range of physical properties that can be measured from rock cores are potentially effective proxies for environmental and process cyclicity but their employment as high resolution chronometers relies on their effective measurement in sediments deposited by glaciers and the 20 development of appropriate time series methods to define the varying degrees of cyclicity. While some of these properties are visible in the cores, most are not and require particular methodological approaches combined with technological advances. These are currently being developed at research institutions around the world (including the UofO) in combination with the IODP and other international partnerships. Micro physical properties such as magnetic signatures are also being developed as effective tracers of local to regional process indicators for integration with ice flow and climate models.

Seismic stratigraphy, geophysical modelling, and basin evolution Seismic stratigraphic schemes have been developed within structurally defined basins across the Ross Sea. New Zealand‐based efforts have focused on the Victoria Land Basin in the western margin of the Ross Sea (Fig. 4). Within this objective we will integrate existing seismic interpretations and ongoing work conducted within the ROSSMAP Program and will focus specifically on correlations from the Victoria Land Basin into the Coulman High region. We will use reprocessed seismic lines to achieve these new correlations. We will also employ gravity and magnetic methods to define and model basin scale structures, sources of sediment contribution and, along with seismic methods, sediment thickness maps as currently being developed by oil industry exploration programmes.

Objective 7: IODP Wilkes Land Margin

Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 318 Drilling the Antarctic Wilkes Land margin will occur adjacent to the most vulnerable sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, which is currently losing mass (Rignot et al., 2008), and where the ice sheet is grounded below sea‐level and is susceptible to warming oceans. It is designed to provide a long‐term record, obtained from sedimentary archives along an inshore to offshore transect, of Antarctic ice sheet behaviour and its intimate relationships with global climatic and oceanographic change. Stratigraphic interpretations indicate that the Wilkes Land record will include the critical periods in Cenozoic Earth climate evolution when the cryosphere formed, likely in step‐wise fashion, and subsequently evolved to assume its present‐ day configuration. The principal goals are:

1. To obtain the timing and nature of the first arrival of ice at the Wilkes Land margin (referred to as the "onset of glaciation") inferred to have occurred during the earliest Oligocene (~34 million years ago); 2. To obtain the nature and age of the changes in the geometry of the progradational wedge interpreted to correspond with large fluctuations in the extent of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and possibly coinciding with the transition from a wet‐based to a cold‐based glacial regime (late Miocene–Pliocene, 6‐3 million years ago); 3. To obtain a high‐resolution record of Antarctic climate variability during the late Neogene and Quaternary (10 million years ago to present day); and 4. To obtain an unprecedented, ultrahigh resolution (i.e., annual to decadal) Holocene record of climate variability (past 10 thousand years).

Results from this expedition will enhance those already identified in the ANDRILL McMurdo Ice Shelf and Southern McMurdo Sound Project cores. The Wilkes Land Margin cores will provide increased spatial understanding of the nature of East Antarctic Ice Sheet variation to compliment those records of West Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution targeted in the PACAFI Program. Together these cores will provide better understanding of the evolution of the Antarctic cryosphere in response to climate thresholds and transitions. Expedition 318 is scheduled to leave Wellington, New Zealand on 4 January, 2010 and return to Hobart, Tasmania on 4 March, 2010. McKay (VUW) has been selected to sail as the Australian and New Zealand IODP representative scientist. Researchers at GNS Science and VUW have been approved for shore‐based studies and Otago will request material for magnetic fabric studies. We seek funds to support their work. We will also participate in meetings to integrate current ANDRILL McMurdo Ice Shelf and Southern McMurdo Sound results with new Wilkes Land scientific results.

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Objective 8: Shaldril – Bay of Whales

The Shaldril Bay of Whales Project will use a developmental drilling system capable of recovering short cores. It provides the first opportunity to sample rocks and sediment that record the early history of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during past higher‐than‐present CO2 levels. These cores are likely to be discontinuous, but will provide important context for deeper drilling by both the ANDRILL Coulman High Project, and the Eastern Ross Sea IODP Project.

The U.S. Antarctic Program plans to mount a marine shallow drilling project (Shaldril) in the eastern Ross Sea (Bay of Whales) (Fig. 1) to sample material spanning from Cretaceous to Miocene age (>65 to 15 million years ago) that will provide regional records of preglacial greenhouse climate, the timing of first significant ice in Marie Byrd Land (West Antarctica), and the pattern of ice sheet variation in the Oligocene and early Miocene (35 to 20 million years ago). In addition, this drilling will address tectonic issues of paleoelevation and provide samples of syn‐rift sediments accumulated during extension between East Antarctica and West Antarctica. The scientific objectives compliment those proposed for the Coulman High Project but address the issues in a different sector of West Antarctica. Together, the records will provide a more robust understanding of regional tectonics and ice sheet behaviour in a world where CO2 levels were at least two times pre‐industrial levels and average temperatures were at least 4‐6°C warmer than present.

The Shaldril cruise is tentatively scheduled for 2012‐2013 and science program planning for the project is currently underway. We have indicated our interest in this project to our U.S. colleagues and have received a positive response regarding New Zealand participation. We anticipate scientific involvement in both shipboard scientific activities and shore‐based studies and initially request funding to support involvement in science planning and development (also see Objective 12).

Other potential targets in the McMurdo Sound region can be tied into the Bay of Whales cruise as ‘add‐on’ sites. These sites include high resolution records for the Last Glacial Maximum to Present (past 18‐19 thousand years) from the Mackay Sea Valley, off‐shore Granite Harbour and Mawson Glacier/Nordenskjold Ice Tongue area. These new records will augment those recovered in the AND‐1B core and Deep Freeze cores for the same time period. These potential drill sites will be developed by Dunbar and McKay (VUW) in collaboration with U.S. partners. Pliocene (5‐2 million years ago) targets are also being developed.

Objective 9: IODP Eastern Ross Sea

New drill sites in the Eastern Ross Sea, are located directly in the path of past West Antarctic Ice Sheet oscillations that reached the outer continental shelf. They will provide direct physical evidence of large ice volume fluctuations, and thus will broaden our spatial understanding of West Antarctic Ice Sheet dynamics enhancing the records recently recovered during the ANDRILL McMurdo Ice Shelf and Southern McMurdo Sound Projects (Naish et al., 2007, 2008, 2009; Harwood et al., 2009). These new sites will provide: (1) critical additional information to confirm (or modify) the existing chronological framework for glacial‐ interglacial cyclicity provided by the ANDRILL cores; and (2) constraints on the extent of grounding line advance across the shelf during glacial maxima. Furthermore, while the records in the ANDRILL cores provide ‘indirect’ evidence of West Antarctic Ice Sheet variation, the proposed IODP sites are located in an area under direct influence from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. New geological data from the Antarctic outer shelf will also permit us to further develop and evaluate Antarctic‐centric geological hypotheses that can’t be easily tested elsewhere. An IODP pre‐proposal (752‐pre) for drilling has been submitted (April 1, 2009) by a multinational science team led by Bart (Louisiana State University, USA) and De Santis (OGS, Trieste, Italy). Levy (GNS Science) contributed to the proposal and represents New Zealand interests in the project.

Additional seismic data are likely required to improve the conceptual stratigraphic framework around the rise sites. We anticipate seeking future support for ship time through the PACAFI Program. In addition, we seek support for travel to facilitate New Zealand scientific leadership in this project. 22

Objective 10: ANDRILL Siple Coast

Like the IODP Eastern Ross Sea Project, the Siple Coast is as a key location for geologic investigation as it lies directly in the path of the major West Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice streams. However, in this case the geologic drill sites are closer to the present day grounding line of West Antarctic Ice Sheet and have the potential provide a direct record of ice‐stream response to both small and larges‐scale climate changes.

A Bathymetric moat around Roosevelt Island on the eastern margin of the Ross Sea continental shelf may contain Neogene sediments that directly record West Antarctic Ice Sheet variability. Roosevelt Island currently sits in the path of ice streams flowing from West Antarctica and grounding line along the margin of the Siple Coast of Marie Byrd Land. Sediment cores recovered from these sites may provide direct evidence of West Antarctic Ice Sheet variability at high resolution. This new site may provide a complimentary record to that recovered from the AND‐1B hole from the bathymetric moat around Ross Island. Correlation between the two sites will allow evaluation of ice sheet dynamics across the Ross Embayment and will allow us to determine sector response to global climate events and evaluate ice sheet model accuracy.

An initial desk top study is required to evaluate the scientific potential of this proposed project. All currently available data (geophysical, geological, and oceanographic) need to be identified, compiled, and integrated so that a plan for future site surveys can be established. Scientific leadership for this objective will initially be provided by Dunbar and Naish (VUW).

Objective 11: ANDRILL Southern McMurdo Ice Shelf

A significant amount of geophysical data has now been collected for the Southern McMurdo Ice Shelf (SMIS Project) (Wilson et al., 2007b; Johnston et al., 2008; Aitken et al., submitted). Drilling beneath the Southern McMurdo Ice Shelf offers several key advantages, which contribute to our scientific objectives: (1) A mid‐ late Neogene sedimentary basin which provides overlap between the AND‐1B and AND‐2A drill cores with interfingering volcanic strata from the volcanic massifs of Minna Bluff, White and Blacks islands and Mount Discovery – all of which are significantly older than the Ross Island volcanoes; (2) association with the Eocene fossiliferous‐erratics indicating the presence of strata from the greenhouse world; and (3) proximity to geomorphic evidence and hence spatial signature of recent glacial expansion and retreat (last several 100 thousand to million years; Wilson, 2000); the site is well positioned to investigate the Discovery accommodation zone which is thought to respresent a cricical juncture in the Transantarctic Mountains and West Antarctic Rift margin (Wilson, 1999; Glasser et al., 2006).

An additional gravity and aeromagnetic survey, in collaboration with our German colleagues, is required to examine basement structure immediately to the east of Minna Bluff. Data will then be submitted to the IODP site survey panel for evaluation and the project can then be considered for drilling by the ASC.

Objective 12: East Antarctic Ice Sheet Outlet Glaciers and Fjords

Fundamental questions regarding the history of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet remain and very few geological records that directly record the growth and retreat of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet through time are currently available. This objective aims to investigate the nature of East Antarctic Ice Sheet behaviour along its marine margins in the Ross Sea region with a focus on outlet glaciers that cut through the Transantarctic Mountains.

Although the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is considered less sensitive to ‘moderate’ increase in global warmth, significant uncertainties regarding its past response still remain. For example, results from numerical ice sheet modelling for the last 5 million years (Pollard and DeConto, 2009) indicate that even when the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapsed the East Antarctic Ice Sheet was not significantly affected. In fact these ice sheet models produce maximum +2 meters sea‐level equivalent East Antarctic ice volume loss. However, 23 other numerical models suggest that the mid‐Pliocene East Antarctic Ice Sheet was significantly smaller than modern (Hill et al., 2007).

Geological data obtained from disparate outcrop and glacial deposits along the Transantarctic Mountains have been used to argue that significant reduction in East Antarctic Ice Sheet volume occurred as recently as 3 million years ago, where other records indicate that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet has remained cold and relatively stable for the past 14 million years. In addition to proximal Antarctic data, sea‐level records obtained from areas such as the Wanganui Basin in New Zealand (e.g. Naish and Wilson, 2009) indicate sea‐ level increase of 25 meters above present, requiring that the Greenland Ice Sheet, West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and a significant portion of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (~ 10 m of sea‐level equivalent) melted during warm periods. We will continue work on existing drill cores and outcrop to examine the history of outlet glacier behaviour and will produce new coupled glacial models to examine East Antarctic Ice Sheet response to Pliocene warming. Additional data from key locations along the East Antarctic coastline are required to examine and resolve discrepancies between existing records and numerical models. We propose a multi‐ disciplinary approach including field work, studies on existing geologic data, and glacial modelling at high resolution. We will target outlet glaciers along the Transantarctic Mountains that are sensitive to climate change and directly record variations in East Antarctic ice volume, including the Byrd, Mulock, and Beardmore glaciers and the McMurdo Dry Valleys and New Harbour region. These studies will be integrated with geophysical data and models to guide development of future drilling targets designed to obtain geologic archives of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet in a warmer world.

Objective 13: Process Studies

A key to resolving the behaviour of ice shelves and ice sheets from sediment records lies in understanding the range and significance of geological processes that deposit sediment on the sea floor. Sedimentation in glacimarine environments is particularly complex because, unlike warmer regions, ice plays a significant role in transporting and depositing sediment there. Different glacimarine environments are associated with very different sediment types. For example, biogenic silica‐rich sediments only form in seasonally open water where light can penetrate, whilst unstratified gravel sands and muds occur underneath grounded ice. The occurrence and transition from one sediment type to another provides critical information about the extent of the ice shelf through time and this approach has been used in recent publications to examine the advance and retreat of the McMurdo/Ross Ice Shelf (McKay et al., 2009; Naish et al., 2009). However, these studies also highlight important areas for future study including: (1) examination of the processes that erode, transport and deposit material in front of and beneath ice sheets; (2) evaluation of the direct contribution of windblown sand to seafloor sedimentation in McMurdo Sound; and (3) evaluation of the link between windblown sediment and the supply of the micronutrient iron which helps stimulate vast phytoplankton blooms following annual sea ice break‐up.

Fundamental research on modern sedimentary processes is required to enable us to interpret past depositional environments and processes from the rock cores we recover during drilling and will be an emphasis of site survey activity at the Coulman High site. Additional small‐scale field studies will also be conducted to address process‐based questions.

Objective 14: Science Communication

It is important that ANDRILL science results are communicated to stakeholders. We will develop and implement an education and public outreach program to translate ANDRILL’s key results to the general public and policy makers. We need to ensure that our results are provided to stakeholders through effective education and communication approaches and will build on the highly successful international education and public outreach program that was implemented during the ANDRILL McMurdo Ice Shelf and Southern McMurdo Sound projects. One example of a possible task is to develop and implement a New Zealand‐based paleoclimate field course for teachers/educators with learning objectives that are mapped to New Zealand education standards and the new NZ Curriculum (http://nzcurriculum.tki.org.nz/). This 24 course would teach the principles and methods in paleoclimate research using an authentic “hands‐on, minds‐on” approach. Antarctic specific content would be integrated through a variety of teaching and learning strategies. The primary goal would be to produce a cohort of educators with a robust understanding of the scientific practices we use to identify how Earth’s climate has evolved through time and how climate variability impacts Antarctica, the Southern Ocean, and New Zealand. We could also develop a National website designed to highlight the ANDRILL Programme and convey key results to the general public. The site may also provide a platform to produce an on‐line Antarctic paleoclimate course that could be produced in partnership with distance learning programmes at Otago and Victoria universities.

We will collaborate with experts in science communication to develop an outreach and education plan and gain leverage through existing programmes of excellence in science teaching and learning. We will provide the scientific knowledge and will rely on education specialists to develop the mechanisms to transfer our research findings to appropriate audiences.

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Table.1 PACAFI Programme timeline and plan ANDRILL field components RADAR SEISMIC/HWD TRAVERSE DRILL DRILL RADAR HWD 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 PROJECT/OBJECTIVE TASK COMMENTS JJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJ

1. SCIENCE LEADERSHIP ASC representation ASIC representation SCAR representation Antarctic IODP National Committees Advisory Structure Program Management Scientific Leadership

2. SCIENTIFIC DRILLING CAPABILITY ANDRILL Projects Management ANDRILL Project Plans Drill System Development Environmental Survey Ops/Management Leverage for NZ scientific involvement in international Polar drilling consultant services projects (e.g. Shaldril)

3. ANDRILL MCMURDO ICE SHELF Thematic Science Results Volume Milestone 25 RIS/WAIS variability in Pleistocene and Oceanic Connections Milestone 31 Report MIS results to govt. agencies Milestone 32 Southern hemisphere cryospheric oceanic linkages Milestone 33 WAIS stability in a warmer world Milestone 34 (Naish et al, Nature paper) Pliocene Integration Milestone 36

Integration of data (temp) with climate models for warm extremes - model validation Milestone 38 Early Pliocene climate and future analogues

Termination of Pliocene warm and establishment of modern bipolar climate system Late Miocene Climate Neogene tectonostratigraphic evolution of the VLB/Terror rift

4. ANDRILL SOUTHERN MCMURDO SOUND IR Volume Milestone 27 Post-Drilling Science Analysis and Results Milestone 29 Science Integration Workshop Thematic Science Results Volume Milestone 30 Sequence Stratigraphic Synthesis Milestone 35 MIS/SMS Pliocene Integration Milestone 36 Cenozoic Glacial History Milestone 37 Report for IPCC AR5 (MFE, MoRST, etc.,) Milestone 39

5. ANDRILL COULMAN HIGH Seismic survey to link drill site to marine data Collaboration with US scientists NIWA collaboration with Woods Hole Oceanographic Sub-ice shelf oceanography Institute and Florida State University Sub-ice shelf sediments Ongoing studies of WAIS variability through the LGM Drill season 1 science Drill season 2 science Post-drilling science Synthesis and integration

6. SCIENTIFIC PREPARATION FOR DRILLING Continued development of Chronostratigraphic framework to Chronostratigraphy and Regional Correlations enhance age control on new and existing drillcores Seismic Stratigraphy and Basin Evolution Taxonomy and Biostratigraphy Refinement of fossil data to enhance age control

New Techniques and Methodologies Including techniques to determine sea surface temperatures

7. IODP WILKES LAND MARGIN Drill season science Support for NZ Science participation in Leg 318 Post-drilling science Support for NZ Science participation in Leg 318 Synthesis and integration Support for NZ Science participation in Leg 318

8. SHALDRIL BAY OF WHALES Drill Season Science Post-drilling science Synthesis and integration

9. IODP EASTERN ROSS SEA Proposal development Support for NZ Leadership NZ contribution to requisite site survey for sites on the Seismic survey (ship time) continental slope

10. ANDRILL SIPLE COAST Desk top study Compile exisiting geophysical and geological data Seismic survey Over-ice site survey Proposal to ASC Environmental surveys

11. ANDRILL SMIS Aeromagnetic and gravity survey Dataset required to present a viable proposal to the ASC Proposal to ASC HWD Environmental surveys

12. EAIS - OUTLET GLACIERS Neogene history of TAM outlet glaciers (field) Reconciling land and marine records of late Neogene climate (integrating cores/outcrop, seismic with terrestrial records from the TAM) Modelling TAM outlet glaciers Ongoing development of Pleistocene target and potential Mackay Sea Valley/Nordenskjold ice tongue Shaldril 'add-on' site

13. PROCESS STUDIES Field work for wind-blown sediment project Sediment and geochemical analysis Synthesis and publication Desk top study - oceanographic process overview Sub-ice shelf oceanographic modelling

14. SCIENCE COMMUNICATION Public Lecture Series and/or Antarctic Climate Fora Website including online paleoclimate course Antarctic Paleoclimate Field Course for Educators (NZ based)

PACAFI FRST Funding Milestones from existing ANDRILL programme ANDRILL field season Ship-based fieldwork Field season (non-ANDRILL) with ANT NZ Support 10. References

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McKay, R., Browne, G., Carter, L., Cowan, E., Dunbar, G., Krissek, L., Naish, T., Powell, R., Reed, J., Talarico, F., Wilch, T., 2009. The Stratigraphic signature of the Late Cenozoic Antarctic ice sheets in the Ross Embayment. GSA Bulletin (in press).

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11. Appendix

Appendix 1: 2008 Review of ANDRILL Contract (C05X0410)

Appendix 2: ANDRILL Programme MoU

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