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(PACAFI) PROGRAMME” a New Zealand Foundation for Research “PAST ANTARCTIC CLIMATE and FUTURE IMPLICATIONS (PACAFI) PROGRAMME” A White Paper Proposal for Future Investment by the New Zealand Foundation for Research Science and Technology in Antarctic Paleoclimate Research (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) (i) Past Antarctic Climate and Future Implications (PACAFI) Programme A White Paper Proposal for Future FRST Investment in Antarctic Paleoclimate Research Prepared by: Dr. Richard Levy, GNS Science, PO Box 30368, Lower Hutt Prof. Tim Naish, Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington Prof. Gary Wilson, Marine Science, University of Otago, PO Box 56, Dunedin TABLE of CONTENTS Executive Summary......................................................................................................................2 1. Rationale and Motivation.........................................................................................................4 1.1 Understanding Antarctica in the Global Climate System........................................................................ 4 1.2 The IPCC Imperative ................................................................................................................................5 1.3 Antarctic Stratigraphic Drilling................................................................................................................ 7 1.4 The ANDRILL Programme Review............................................................................................................ 9 2. Science Drivers for Future Antarctic Paleoclimate Investigations..............................................9 2.1 The Nine Science Priorities ...................................................................................................................... 9 3. New Zealand’s Existing Capability and Capability Needs.........................................................10 3.1 Antarctica New Zealand........................................................................................................................ 10 3.2 GNS Science (GNS)................................................................................................................................. 10 3.3 Victoria University of Wellington (VUW)............................................................................................... 11 3.4 University of Otago (UofO).................................................................................................................... 11 3.5 Generic Needs for Investment............................................................................................................... 12 4. Our Competitive Advantage and Maintaining Facilities and People........................................12 5. Relationship of the Proposed PACAFI Programme to Other Currently Funded FRST Antarctic and New Zealand Paleoclimate Programmes...........................................................................13 6. Research Outcomes and Implementation Pathway ................................................................14 7. Budget Considerations ...........................................................................................................15 8. Governance and Management Structure................................................................................15 9. Research Plan for the Proposed “Past Antarctic Climate and Future Implications (PACAFI) Programme”............................................................................................................................15 Objective 1: Science Leadership .................................................................................................................. 16 Objective 2: Scientific Drilling Capability..................................................................................................... 16 Objective 3: ANDRILL McMurdo Ice Shelf.................................................................................................... 17 Objective 4: ANDRILL Southern McMurdo Sound........................................................................................ 17 Objective 5: ANDRILL Coulman High ........................................................................................................... 18 Objective 6: Scientific Preparation for Drilling ............................................................................................ 20 Objective 7: IODP Wilkes Land Margin ....................................................................................................... 21 Objective 8: Shaldril – Bay of Whales.......................................................................................................... 22 Objective 9: IODP Eastern Ross Sea............................................................................................................. 22 Objective 10: ANDRILL Siple Coast .............................................................................................................. 23 Objective 11: ANDRILL Southern McMurdo Ice Shelf .................................................................................. 23 Objective 12: East Antarctic Ice Sheet Outlet Glaciers and Fjords .............................................................. 23 Objective 13: Process Studies...................................................................................................................... 24 Objective 14: Science Communication ........................................................................................................ 24 10. References............................................................................................................................27 11. Appendix ..............................................................................................................................30 Appendix 1: 2008 Review of ANDRILL Contract (C05X0410) Appendix 2: ANDRILL Programme MoU 1 “Past Antarctic Climate and Future Implications (PACAFI) Programme” A White Paper Proposal for Future FRST Investment in Antarctic Paleoclimate Research Executive Summary This White Paper proposal to the New Zealand Foundation of Research Science and Technology (FRST) seeks to enhance New Zealand expertise and international standing in Antarctic paleoclimate research by continuing support of research and leadership into Antarctica’s climate evolution and its global influence. Our international reputation has been heavily leveraged by 30 years of innovative polar drilling technology and Antarctic field operations led by New Zealanders. Any future research programme must incorporate support for both scientific and drilling technology capabilities. Here we provide a path forward for the currently‐funded FRST ANDRILL Programme (CO5X0410), following the successful international panel‐ review in April 2008, to secure a sustainable world‐class capability. It will position New Zealand researchers to take a long‐term leading role. This integrated research plan is presented to the Foundation on behalf of three major New Zealand science providers (GNS Science, Victoria University of Wellington, and Otago University). We anticipate that other institutions (NIWA, and Canterbury University) will be involved. Our research strategy is designed to resolve sectoral response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and margins of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate perturbations over the past 65 million years, as a guide to assessing future climate change more accurately. Of principal concern is that the future contribution of Antarctic ice to sea‐level rise over the next 100 years is potentially large (1‐2 m by 2100). Yet this science was considered “too uncertain” by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in their 2007 report (IPCC, 2007), which downgraded its upper limit for sea‐level rise over the next 100 years from 0.88 m to 0.57 m by leaving the dynamic contribution from polar ice sheets out of the projection. This is motivating the Antarctic research community to rapidly improve its understanding for the future IPCC assessment reports (AR5 in 2013, AR6 in 2019). The international research approach The uncertainties surrounding future changes to the Antarctic ice sheets are being addressed by three research strands: (1) Improved Antarctic ice sheet models are being developed for example, through the Community Ice Sheet Model project arising from the U.S.‐led for the past 150 years and future centuries led West Antarctic Ice Sheet Initiative; (2) Longer and more precise records of satellite mass balance observations from both GRACE and InSAR data, which are reducing uncertainties; (3) Geological records of past ice sheet behaviour (such as those recovered by ANDRILL) provide the only physical evidence of past ice sheet dynamics when atmospheric CO2 levels and global temperatures were comparable with those projected for 2100. The New Zealand research community is currently leading an international initiative aimed at redressing the critical lack of high‐quality paleoclimate records from the Antarctic continental margin. New Zealand paleoclimate researchers (Naish, Levy, Wilson and Barrett) are actively working with drilling programmes (including ANDRILL, Integrated Ocean Drilling Programme [IODP], and Shaldril) as well as climate and ice sheet modelling communities to develop a 20 year research strategy that recognises that Antarctica ice cover has begun to change and time and time is short. Naish and Levy are coordinating an Antarctic drilling futures workshop to be held in conjunction with the
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