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Table of Contents Body Count Casualty Figures after 10 Years of the “War on Terror” Iraq Afghanistan Pakistan - 1 - First international edition (March 2015) Table of Contents Body Count Casualty Figures after 10 Years of the “War on Terror” Iraq Afghanistan Pakistan First international edition - Washington DC, Berlin, Ottawa - March 2015 translated from German by Ali Fathollah-Nejad available from the editors: Internationale Ärzte für die Verhütung des Atomkrieges / Ärzte in sozialer Verantwortung (German affiliate), Berlin PSR: Physicians for Social Responsibility (US American affiliate), Washington DC PGS: Physicians for Global Survival (Canandian affiliate), Ottawa of IPPNW (International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War) www.ippnw.de www.psr.org www.pgs.ca hardcopies: [email protected] (print on demand) ISBN-13: 978-3-9817315-0-7 - 2 - Table of Contents Table of Contents Preface by Dr. h.c. Hans-C. von Sponeck .......................................................................... 6 Foreword by Physicians for Social Responsibility (USA)............................................ 8 Foreword for the international edition - by IPPNW Germany................................10 Introduction .....................................................................................................................11 Executive Summary.........................................................................................................15 Iraq “Body Count” in Iraq ....................................................................................................19 Different Methods of Counting ......................................................................................... 21 Fragmentary Observations .................................................................................................. 23 Realistic Estimates through Representative Polls ........................................................... 25 The Lancet Study of 2006 ................................................................................................... 26 The WHO Study ................................................................................................................... 28 Possible Distortions in Mortality Studies ......................................................................... 28 The Question of Who Are the Perpetrators .................................................................... 28 Summary 30 Ostrich Policy ........................................................................................................................ 33 Incomplete Databases.....................................................................................................34 IBC Criticism of the Lancet Studies.................................................................................... 34 Evidence of a Gross Underestimation by IBC................................................................ 36 Lancet Study Figures Appear More Plausible ................................................................... 38 Deficient and One-Sided Reporting .................................................................................. 39 Examples of Large Gaps ..................................................................................................... 40 “The Numbers War”: On the Dispute Surrounding the Credibility of the Lancet Studies .........................43 The Lancet study..................................................................................................................... 43 Spontaneous Rejection......................................................................................................... 44 Barely Disputed Among Experts ....................................................................................... 45 Criticism from Scientists ...................................................................................................... 46 “Main Street Bias”................................................................................................................. 47 “40 Households per Day Not Feasible” ........................................................................... 47 “No Response to Critical Questions” ............................................................................... 48 “Decrease in Child Mortality” ............................................................................................ 48 “Low Pre-War Mortality” .................................................................................................... 48 Danger of Underestimation Greater than Danger of Overestimation ....................... 49 General Doubts in Representative Methods ................................................................... 50 The IFHS Study .................................................................................................................... 50 Flaws of the IFHS Study ..................................................................................................... 51 Politically Motivated Restriction ........................................................................................ 52 Who Did the Killing? ........................................................................................................... 53 Political Attacks against the Authors of the Lancet Studies ........................................... 53 Justified Criticism .................................................................................................................. 55 Summary ............................................................................................................................... 56 Meticulous, But Late: A New Mortality Study on the Iraq War ...............................56 Core Details of the Study .................................................................................................... 57 Comparing the PLOS and Lancet Studies ......................................................................... 58 - 3 - Table of Contents Reasons for the Difference Between the PLOS Study and Earlier Studies ............... 58 Adjustments for Migration in the PLOS Study ............................................................... 59 Consensus ............................................................................................................................... 61 “Response Rate” ........................................................................................................................ 62 Problems with the Cluster Selection.................................................................................. 62 Responses to the PLOS Study ............................................................................................ 63 Afghanistan Estimates of the Number of War Deaths in Afghanistan from October 7, 2001 to December 31, 2011 ........................................................... 65 Civilians ............................................................................................................................... 66 Directly Killed Civilians ........................................................................................... 66 Indirectly Killed Civilians ........................................................................................ 69 Killed Combatants ................................................................................................................ 69 Killed Afghan Security Forces ................................................................................ 70 Killed ISAF and OEF Soldiers ............................................................................... 70 Killed Staff of Private Security Contractors ......................................................... 71 Killed “Taliban”........................................................................................................ 71 Afghanistan ...................................................................................................................... 74 Security Forces Killed in Afghanistan ............................................................................... 74 Insurgents Killed in Afghanistan........................................................................................ 75 Civilian Employees of the US Government Killed ........................................................ 76 Journalists Killed in Afghanistan ........................................................................................ 76 Civilians Killed in Afghanistan ........................................................................................... 76 Abbreviations ......................................................................................................................... 79 Pakistan Overview: Pakistan.......................................................................................................... 81 Journalists Killed in Pakistan............................................................................................... 82 Victims of the “War on Terror” in Pakistan ............................................................... 84 The Most Important Areas of Conflict aside from the “War on Terror”:................. 85 1,842 “terrorist attacks” in which 1,395 persons were killed. ....................................... 86 An Assessment of the General Data Situation: ............................................................... 87 Summary ..............................................................................................................................
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