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Historical Study of Tsunamis - an Outline Pacific Marine Science Report 78-5 HISTORICAL STUDY OF TSUNAMIS - AN OUTLINE by Sydney O. Wigen Institute of Ocean Sciences, Patricia Bay Sidney, B.C. Pacific Marine Science Report 78-5 HISTORICAL STUDY OF TSUNAMIS - AN OUTLINE by Sydney O. Wigen Institute of Ocean Sciences, Patricia Bay Sidney, B.C. January 1978 This is a manuscript which has received only limited circulation. On citing this report in a bibliography, the title should be followed by the words "UNPUBLISHED MANUSCRIPT" which is in accordance with accepted bibliographic custom. ..I ABSTRACT This paper is intended to set forth objectives for a Historical Study of Tsunamis; to summarize the preparatory work carried out at the International Tsunami Information Center; and to provide a procedural outline for those participating in the Study. From Basi1an Island, Philippines August 1976 "When the tsunami broke down our homes our people tried to go to higher ground. If the water was above our knees a man could hardly stand, and women and children did not have a chance". HISTORICAL STUDY OF TSUNAMIS - AN OUTLINE Letter of Introduction During the final months of his posting as Associate Director of the International Tsunami Information Center, Mr. Sydney o. Wigen has undertaken preparatory work on behalf of ITIC for a comprehensive Historical Study of Tsunamis. The Center endorses this Study, and authorizes Mr. Wigen to continue to co-ordinate and direct it on behalf of the Center. Bringing the Historical Study of Tsunamis to a success­ ful fulfillment will only be possible with the co-operative participation of many researchers. From it may come a syste­ matic body of knowledge that could be applied to mitigating the effects of tsunamis, and protection of people and property in coastal communities throughout the world. Mr. Wigen is completing his posting as Associate Director of ITIC on November 30, 1977 and is returning to Canada where he is continuing in tsunami programs. Questions, comments and expressions of interest in participating in the Historical Study of Tsunamis may be sent to ITIC, or directly to Mr. Wigen at his new address; Institute of Ocean Sciences; P.O. Box 6000; 9860 W. Saanich Road; Sidney, B.C., Canada; V8L 4B2. Sincerely, George Pararas-Carayannis Director, ITIC 1 HISTORICAL STUDY OF TSUNAMIS - AN OUTLINE This paper is intended to set forth objectives for a Historical Study of Tsunamis; to summarize the preparatory work carried out at the International Tsunami Information Center; and to provide a procedural outline for those participating in the Study. Introduction In a recent study by the author, the marigrams from the tide station at Tofino, British Columbia, were examined for evidence of 70 known large tsunamis originating in various parts of the Pacific. Twenty-one of these were found to have produced identifiable tsunamis, and most of these had not been previously reported. It was recognized that many additional.tsunamis could have reached and been recorded at Tofino, and that these could be uncovered by a systematic search of a large number of potentially tsunamigenic events. Similarly, a study of the marigrams from any other tidal station would yield an unknown number of previously unreported tsunami records. A systematic search through tide records of many stations and the compiling of standardized data would provide a foundation for tsunami research that would have direct application for the improvement of tsunami warning systems. with this in mind, preparatory work for a systematic and com­ prehensive Historical Study of Tsunamis has been carried out at the International Tsunami Information Center, and is outlined in this paper. The full Study can be brought to successful fulfillment with the co-operation of many researchers, each investigating the tsunami records from a single tidal station. It is envisaged that each of the research studies will provide a body of knowledge not presently available, and the composite of many such studies will be a data source for ocean-wide research. 2 9b jectives About 100,000 people are known to have died as a result of tsunamis in the last 100 years, the period of time to be covered by this Study. Most died for lack of knowledge and preparedness. Researchers may recognize in the following statement of objectives, the potential of the Study to mitigate some of the disastrous effects of tsunamis, and how their own participation will add to the body of knowledge, assist in the development of regional and International Tsunami Warning Systems, and contribute to the protection of property and resources and the saving of lives. Here are the principal objectives, as related to each specific station. 1. Identify whether the coastal area at which the station is located is vulnerable to destructive tsunamis, and establish the frequency with which tsunamis of any magnitude may be expected. 2. Define which tsunami-generating regions threaten the coastal area, and which do not. 3. Determine the actual travel times of tsunamis from generating regions, and the number of hours after arrival that the waves may have their maximum impact. 4. Evaluate how accurately the gauge station records tsunamis affecting the adjacent coast, and determine whether its capability could be improved. Here are the principal objectives, related to the collective results of the Historical Study of Tsunamis. 3 1. Collect and systematize as complete a record as possible of tsunamis, and standardize data, as a foundation for research. 2. Identify the directions in which generated tsunamis propagated; find whether the direction of propagation from any source was consistent; and define the directions in which each did not propagate. 3. Develop a body of data on actual travel times of tsunamis, for use in calibrating travel time charts used in warning systems. 4. Provide data for calibrating numerical models of tsunamis in the ocean. 5. Identify earthquakes that produced tsunamis, and ones of similar magnitude that apparently did not. Characteristics of their seismic records may be recognized that could identify the tsunami threat of future earthquakes at the time of their occurrence. The collected data from the Historical Study of Tsunamis will be provided to the World Data Centers for Tsunamis. In this way any researcher will have access to it for further investigation. Preparatory Work The basic procedure adopted for the Study has been to compile a list of earthquakes whose magnitude, depth, and location would make them potentially tsunamigenic; to supplement these events with other known or suspected tsuanmis; and t9 define stann~rdiz­ ed procedures for data collection and compilation. Tsunami' catalogues by Iida, Cox~ and Pararas-Carayannis, 1967 and by Soloviev, 1974 and 1975, provided most of the records of past tsunamis, and these were supplemented by records of the Honolulu 4 Observatory (now the PaciIic Tsunami Warning Center), and by a number of papers dealing with specific regions. A paper by S. J. Duda, and pUblications of the International Seismological Centre and the National Earthquake Information Service were the primary sources of earthquake data. Regional data were received as well from New Zealand and from Canada. The preparation of the list of potentially tsunamigenic events required a number of arbitrary judgements, so the procedures for selection are outlined below. Arbitrarily the list commences in 1883, the year of the Krakatoa explosion and tsunami. For the first 14 years, 1883-1896, adequate earthquake records do not appear to be available, and only 18 events were selected from the tsunami catalogues. For the period 1897-1964, the list of earthquakes compiled by S. J. Duda was recommended by seismologists as being the most reliable. This list included all earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 and larger, about 1300 in all for the 68 years. From these were deleted earthquakes that appeared to be too far inland to be tsunamigenic, and those with a focal depth of greater than 100 km. Events from tsunami catalogues were added, resulting in about 1020 events for the 68 years. In setting criteria to keep the Study to a manageable size and delete earthquakes most unlikely to be tsunamigenic, a few actual tsunamis will have been missed. In four cases the tsunami catalogues restored events that had been deleted from the earthquake list because of focal depth. From 1965 through 1974 the semiannual list of large earthquakes published by the International Seismological Centre (ISC) was used. Each edition includes a list of major earthquakes, magnitude 5.5 and over. The ISC magnitude is given, plus magnitudes established by other sources for the same event. Typically 5 there is a disparity of .5 to 1.0 in the magnitudes, with ISC and United states Coast and Geodetic Survey (USCGS) 1965-1970, or National Earthquake Information Service (NElS) 1971-1974 being low, but in close agreement, and others being relatively high. By comparison with events in the tsunami catalogues it appeared appropriate to select earthquakes with an ISC or NElS magnitude of 6.0 or larger, and about 400 events were included for this 10 year period. For 1975 and 1976 the principal source of information was the record of earthquakes investigated by Honolulu Observatory, and 50 events were included. For all of the above periods the NElS catalogue of earthquakes was a valuable corroborative data -source, particularly when times and positions from other records were in disagreement. The list of events has been prepared in two forms, a Chronological List and an Area List. Examples appear as Tables 1 and 2. The Chronological List defines the events, in time sequence. The Area List provides a form for tabulating standard information about any tsunami from these events, as recorded at a particular tide gauge station. In the Chronological List, the following abbreviations are used to designate principal data source for each event: TC Preliminary Catalogue of Tsunamis in the Pacific NG Science in New Guinea 4(1) 1976 DU S.
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