A Feasibility Study on the Termination of the Sending-Receiving
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A Feasibility Study on the Termination of the Sending-Receiving Agreement Between the Absecon Board of Education and the Pleasantville Board of Education by Statistical Forecasting LLC, Peter E. Carter M.A., and Steven Cea M.B.A. May 2019 4215011 2 Table of Contents Acknowledgements .......................................................................................... 4 I. Introduction ………….. ..................................................................... 5 II. Demographic Profiles ........................................................................................ 7 A. Community Descriptions ......................................................................... 7 1. City of Absecon .............................................................................. 7 2. City of Pleasantville ...................................................................... 8 3. Mainland Regional Geographical Area ......................................... 9 4. Greater Egg Harbor Regional Geographical Area ......................... 10 B. Demographic Characteristics .................................................................... 12 1. City of Absecon .............................................................................. 13 2. City of Pleasantville ...................................................................... 14 3. Mainland Regional Geographical Area ......................................... 16 4. Greater Egg Harbor Regional Geographical Area ......................... 17 C. District Overviews .................................................................................... 18 1. Absecon Public School District ...................................................... 18 2. Pleasantville Public Schools ......................................................... 18 3. Mainland Regional School District ................................................ 18 4. Greater Egg Harbor Regional High School District ....................... 18 D. Explanation of the Cohort-Survival Ratio Method ................................ 19 E. Explanation of Grade Progression Differences ...................................... 19 F. Historical Enrollment Trends .................................................................... 20 1. Absecon Public School District ...................................................... 20 2. Pleasantville Public Schools ......................................................... 20 3. Mainland Regional School District ................................................ 23 4. Greater Egg Harbor Regional High School District ....................... 23 G. Birth Data .......................................................................................... 27 H. Potential New Housing ........................................................................... 29 1. City of Absecon .............................................................................. 29 2. City of Pleasantville ...................................................................... 30 3. Mainland Regional Geographical Area ......................................... 30 4. Greater Egg Harbor Regional Geographical Area ......................... 31 I. Enrollment Projections ............................................................................ 34 1. Absecon Public School District ...................................................... 36 2. Pleasantville Public Schools ......................................................... 37 3. Mainland Regional School District ................................................ 37 4. Greater Egg Harbor Regional High School District ....................... 38 J. Capacity Analysis .................................................................................... 40 III. Racial Impact .......................................................................................... 42 A. Absecon Public School District Enrollments by Race ............................ 42 1. District Totals (PK-8) ................................................................. 42 2. Absecon Students Attending Pleasantville High School ............... 43 B. Pleasantville Public Schools Enrollments by Race ................................. 45 1. District Totals (PK-12) ................................................................ 45 2. Pleasantville High School ............................................................ 46 a) Pleasantville High School without Absecon Students ........... 47 C. Mainland Regional School District Enrollments by Race ....................... 49 1. District Totals (9-12) .................................................................... 49 a) Mainland High School with Absecon Students .................... 50 4215011 3 D. Greater Egg Harbor Regional High School District Enrollments by Race 52 1. District Totals (9-12) .................................................................... 52 2. Absegami High School ............................................................... 53 a) Absegami High School with Absecon Students ................. 54 3. Cedar Creek High School ........................................................... 56 a) Cedar Creek High School with Absecon Students ............. 57 4. Oakcrest High School ................................................................. 59 a) Oakcrest High School with Absecon Students ................... 60 F. Racial Summary ..................................................................................... 62 IV. Educational Programs ...................................................................................... 64 A. Introduction .......................................................................................... 64 B. Overview of Schools ............................................................................. 64 1. Absecon Public School District ..................................................... 64 2. Pleasantville Public Schools – Pleasantville High School ........... 65 3. Greater Egg Harbor Regional – Absegami High School .............. 66 4. Mainland Regional ....................................................................... 67 C. Biology Assessment .............................................................................. 68 D. 2016-17 Comparison of High Schools in Other Key Areas .................. 70 E. Educational Conclusion ......................................................................... 71 V. Financial Impact .......................................................................................... 72 A. Introduction .......................................................................................... 72 B. Methodology .......................................................................................... 73 C. Key Assumptions .................................................................................... 73 D. Results of the Analysis ........................................................................... 75 1. City of Absecon with Greater Egg Harbor Regional Send-Receive ........................................................................... 77 2. City of Absecon with Mainland Regional Send-Receive ............... 77 3. City of Pleasantville without Absecon Students ............................ 77 4. Greater Egg Harbor Regional with Absecon Send-Receive ........... 78 5. Mainland Regional with Absecon Send-Receive .......................... 78 6. Phase-in Approach ........................................................................ 78 E. Summary of Fiscal Advantages and Disadvantages ............................. 79 VI. Conclusion .......................................................................................... 79 VII. Appendices .......................................................................................... 81 4215011 4 Acknowledgements The Absecon Public School District, Pleasantville Public Schools, Mainland Regional School District, Greater Egg Harbor Regional High School District and their representatives, City of Absecon, City of Pleasantville, City of Linwood, City of Northfield, City of Somers Point, Egg Harbor City, Township of Galloway, Township of Hamilton, Township of Mullica, and their officials, the Atlantic County Office of Education, and the New Jersey Department of Education were most cooperative in responding to the consultant team’s requests for the volumes of data and information necessary to compile, analyze, and present the applicable recommendations. 4215011 5 I. Introduction For decades, the Absecon Board of Education has been concerned with the quality of the education its high school students have been receiving at Pleasantville High School as a result of its sending-receiving relationship with the Pleasantville Board of Education. These concerns include, but are not limited to, the quality and quantity of the educational opportunities offered at Pleasantville High School. As a result, the Absecon Board of Education resolved to study the options available with respect to the education of its high school students in order to improve the quality of the education its students receive. With the assistance of expert consultants, the Absecon Board determined that one such option would be to pursue the termination of its current sending-receiving relationship with Pleasantville and establishment of a new sending-receiving relationship with a nearby school district, wherein Absecon’s students in grades 9-12 would be educated at another nearby high school. The following school districts were identified by these independent experts