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Growth Factors Analysis

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Growth Factors Analysis Growth Factors Analysis 2030 Growth Vision Plan Growth Factors Analysis Introduction Population, Housing and Economy ........................ 1 Military Influence .................................................... 23 Transportation ........................................................ 31 School Facilities ..................................................... 45 Stormwater Management ...................................... 55 Parks and Recreation ............................................ 63 Water and Sewer Services .................................... 67 Acknowledgments Policies & Actions Document ..... Under Separate Cover Introduction Growth Factors Analysis Introduction This Growth Factors Analysis and the accompanying Policies and Actions are two companion documents that together form the 2030 Growth Vision Plan. The Growth Factors Analysis includes a number of white papers that provide a factual basis for understanding the context for growth and change in Cumberland County. This understanding was then employed, in part, to assist in the development of informed growth policies and actions. The analysis leads off with a statistical assessment of Cumberland County’s population, housing, and local economy, following immediately by a paper on the significant influence of the military on the area. Information is then presented on a number of infrastructure elements critical to the continued positive growth of the region. These infrastructure elements include transportation, school facilities, stormwater management, parks and recreation, and water and sewer utilities. It should be noted that the white papers which comprise the Growth Factors Analysis were researched and written early (during 2006) in the process of preparing the 2030 Plan. It may be observed, therefore, that some of the information cited in this report will not be the most recently available at the time of plan adoption. Even so, the Growth Factors Analysis provides a useful evaluation of various conditions in Cumberland County during the early 2000’s. While some information has undoubtedly changed, the most significant facts and trends will not show remarkable changes in direction over a relatively short period of time. Introduction Growth Factors Analysis Population, Housing and Economy This section provides an overview of population, housing and economic conditions in Cumberland County. Included are tables, charts and maps depicting overall population growth, population composition, housing numbers and characteristics, and a sampling of economic indicators. Population Change Population of Cumberland County 1900-2000 with Projections to 2030 The graph and bar chart on this page illustrate the historical growth of 400000 371446 349192 Cumberland County from 1900 to 2000, 324385 as well as projections of future 350000 302963 population growth through the year 274566 300000 2030. All historical data is from the US 247160 Decennial Census. Future projections 250000 212042 are from the North Carolina State Demographer’s office. 200000 148418 150000 As can be seen from the slope of the 96006 graph as well as the height of the bars 100000 below, Cumberland County’ greatest 59320 45219 35064 29249 period of growth was during the three 50000 35284 decades from 1940 through 1970. Not 0 surprisingly, this thirty-year period coincided with the military buildup at Fort Bragg, in response to the demands of 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 World War II, the Korean War and the Viet Nam War. The pace of population growth in Cumberland County has been slowly declining since its peak during the 1960’s. Even so, population projections for the Population Change By Decade Cumberland period from 2000 to 2030 call for a County 1900-2000 relatively well-sustained level of growth. with Projections to 2030 The State Demographer projects the 75000 addition of well over 20,000 more people 63624 in Cumberland County over each of the 65000 next three decades. 55000 52412 45000 36686 35118 35000 2740628397 24807 The State Demographer 25000 21422 22254 projects the addition of 14101 over 20,000 people in 15000 10155 Cumberland County 6035 5000 over each of the next -220 three decades. -5000 1900-101910-201920-301930-401940-501950-601960-701970-801980-901990-002000-102010-202020-30 Population, Housing and Economy Page 1 2030 Joint Growth Vision Plan The graph on the left would appear to indicate Population of Larger Towns in that the City of Fayetteville has been growing Cumberland County, 1970 to 2004 much faster than either the Town of Hope Mills or 140000 Spring Lake. In reality, Fayetteville’s population growth may be attributed almost entirely to 120000 annexation rather than in-migration of new 100000 residents or natural increase of births over deaths. (See chart below.) 80000 In all likelihood, the City of 60000 Fayetteville would have 40000 shown declines in population, had it not been 20000 for annexation of suburban areas during the past three 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2004 decades. Fayetteville 53510 59507 75850 121015 130,850 Hope M ills 1,866 5,412 8,272 11,237 12,355 City of Fayetteville Spring Lake 3,968 6,273 7,524 8,098 8,208 Population & Square Miles 1980-2005 200 174 180 Population in As shown in the chart on the right, during the 25-year 160 Thousands 140 Area in Square period from 1980 through 2005, the population of the M iles 121 City of Fayetteville increased by 190%. At the same 120 time, the land area of the City increased by 192%. 100 76 80 60 91.5 60 40 58.8 20 31.3 40.1 0 1980 1990 2000 2005 Population of Smaller Towns in Cumberland County, 1970 to 2004 800 Among the smaller towns in Cumberland County 700 only the Town of Wade experienced a net population increase from 1980 to 2004. 600 500 400 300 200 100 Among the smaller towns 0 in the County, only the 1970 1980 1990 2000 2004 Town of Wade added Falcon 357 339 353 343 326 population between 1980 Godwin 129 233 77 112 117 and 2004. Linden 205 365 180 127 136 Stedman 505 723 577 664 673 Wade 315 474 309 510 525 Page 2 Population, Housing and Economy From 1990 to 2000, areas with the highest growth rate (60% to 95%) were located in the southwestern part of the County. Cumberland County % Change in Population 1990-2000 CumberlandBy Census County Tract % Population Growth, 1990-2000 By Census Tract Growth Factors Analysis Cumberland County % Change in Population, 1990-2000 By Census Tract 1 0 4 S U 1 0 3 S U 5 9 I- I-2 3 9 5 1 S U 0 1 3 S I-95 /U u s B Prim ary Roads (NCD OT) 5 9 I- Municipal Boundaries Cape F ear River % Change in Pop 1990-2000 U S 401 Loss of .1% to 32% Gain of .1% to 29.9% 5 9 - Gain of 30% to 59.9% I NC Gain of 60% to 95% 24 1 0 3 S U / N s C u 2 1 B 0 5 9 - 5 I I-9 N C 5 3 N C 8 0 2 4 6 Miles 7 N W E S This map shows the percent change in population Areas with an even lower growth rate (.1- 29.9%), by census tract from 1990-2000. The darkest shade included North Fayetteville, Vanstory Hills, shows areas that gained the most population; the Briarwood, the Cedar Creek area, and Downtown lightest, those that lost population. Between 1990 Fayetteville. (Growth in the Downtown reflected an and 2000, Cumberland County grew from 274,566 increase in prisoners at the new County jail.) to 302,963 people, an increase of 23,397, or 10.3%. Areas that lost population included: neighborhoods Areas with the highest growth rate (60%-95%) were surrounding Downtown Fayetteville and Cross in the southwestern part of the County. Factors that Creek Mall, neighborhoods along Murchison Road may have contributed to this growth include: and Bragg Boulevard, areas between the Cape availability of undeveloped land, utilities, proximity Fear River and I-95, and the Fort Bragg/Pope Air to Fort Bragg, and the proposed Outer Loop. Force Base military bases. Areas with a lower growth rate (30% to 59.9%) At Fort Bragg, both the household population and included Rayconda, Remington, the large the group quarters (barracks) population dropped apartment complex area along Cliffdale Road (near from 1990-2000. A decrease in household Reilly Road), and lands along US 13 and US 401 population paralleled a decrease in housing units North. on base. The decrease in barracks population was associated with the renovation of barracks, whereby the number of soldiers per barrack was decreased. Population, Housing and Economy Page 3 2030 Joint Growth Vision Plan % Change in Population Cumberland County and Randolph Chatham Wake Surrounding Counties, by Township 1990-2000 Lee Johnston Harnett Stanly Cabarrus Mecklenburg Moore Wayne MontgoMostme ofr they high- growth townships during the 1990’s were located close to Fort Cumberland RBragg/Popeichmo Airn d Hoke Force Base, the Sampson Anson largest employment Duplin center in the region. Soldiers stationed at Sthec otland military bases may have moved to Robeson residences in these townships. Pender County Boundaries Bladen % Change in Total Pop, 1990-2000, by Township Loss of 11.8% to Gain of 2.1% Gain of 2.2% to 34.9% Gain of 35% to 74.9% Gain of 75% or M ore Counties Outside Study Area Columbus 0 5 10 15 Miles N New Hanover W E S Brunswick Cu mb erland C ou nty a nd Su rro und ing Co un ties This map shows the percent change in population County townships withPe race nlowert C ha ng e in growthPo pula tion rate (35- by township from 1990 to 2000 for Cumberland 75%) included Grays 1Creek99 0-20 00, B y(64 To wn%)ship and Rockfish County and surrounding counties. The lightest (37%), both in the southwestern part of the County. shade shows townships that lost population or had a slight gain.
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