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Winners and Losers in the Predicted Impact of Climate Change on Cacti Species in Baja California

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Winners and Losers in the Predicted Impact of Climate Change on Cacti Species in Baja California Plant Ecol (2021) 222:29–44 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11258-020-01085-2 (0123456789().,-volV)( 0123456789().,-volV) Winners and losers in the predicted impact of climate change on cacti species in Baja California Eva Benavides . Aurora Breceda . Jose´ D. Anado´n Received: 9 September 2019 / Accepted: 22 September 2020 / Published online: 4 October 2020 Ó Springer Nature B.V. 2020 Abstract The Cactaceae is considered one of the scenarios: full climate change tracking and no migra- most threatened taxa in the world. However, the extent tion. Altogether, all socioeconomic emission path- to which climate change could compromise the ways under the two extreme migration scenarios show conservation status of this group has rarely been consistency regarding the identity of the species most investigated. The present study advances this issue vulnerable to climate change, and depict a discrepant under three specific aims: (1) to assess the impact of future scenario that has, on one hand, species with climate change on the distribution of endemic cacti large potential habitat gains/stability (winners); and on species in the Baja California Peninsula (n = 40), (2) the other, species with large habitat reductions to study how the impact of climate change is (losers). Our work indicates that winner species have distributed in this group according to the species’ a tropical affinity, globose growth, and includes most conservation status, and (3) to analyze how these of the currently threatened species, whereas loser ones impacts are organized from a biogeographical and are in arid and Mediterranean systems and are mostly functional perspective. We addressed these objectives non-threatened. Thus, current and future threat factors under three socioeconomic emission pathways (RCP do not overlap in the biogeographic and taxonomic 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5), and using two extreme migration space. That reveals a worrisome horizon at supraspeci- fic levels in the study area, since the total number of Communicated by Hsiao-Hsuan Wang. threatened species in the future might largely increase. Electronic supplementary material The online version of Keywords Species traits Á Endangered cacti Á this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s11258-020-01085-2) con- Growth form Á Sonoran Desert Á Mexico tains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. E. Benavides Á A. Breceda (&) J. D. Anado´n Centro de Investigaciones Biolo´gicas del Noroeste SC, Biology Program, The Graduate Center, City University Av. Instituto Polite´cnico Nacional, Playa Palo de Santa of New York, New York, NY 10016, USA Rita Sur, 23096 La Paz, B.C.S, Mexico e-mail: [email protected] Present Address: J. D. Anado´n J. D. Anado´n Department of Agricultural Sciences and the Department of Biology, Queens College, City University Environment, University of Zaragoza, 22071 Huesca, of New York, Queens, NY 11367, USA Spain 123 30 Plant Ecol (2021) 222:29–44 Introduction into the models. Thus, it is crucial to address the ability of the target species to track changing conditions The Cactaceae family, probably the most representa- (Dawson et al. 2011; Corlett and Westcott 2013). tive group of plants of the arid and semiarid systems of However, the characterization of migration constraints the Americas, is the fifth most globally threatened needs to be based on species-specific data, which ´ taxon assessed to date (Santos-Dıaz et al. 2010; require a large amount of knowledge and data to be Goettsch et al. 2015). Up to 31% of the 1478 evaluated calibrated, usually not available when analyzing large species in this group are threatened, mostly due to land sets of species (Morin and Thuiller 2009). In order to conversion to agriculture and aquaculture, collection overcome this issue, in the present work, we model the as biological resources, and residential or commercial impact of climate change on the distribution of cacti development (Goettsch et al. 2015). In addition, the species under two migration scenarios: one assuming future impacts of climate change on cacti species have no dispersal constraints (i.e. full climate tracking) and begun to be explored in relatively recent terms; so far, other considering no migration (e.g. Thuiller et al. the existing works in this regard have shown positive 2005, 2006). From a broader perspective, our interest ´ (Davila et al. 2013, Carrillo-Angeles et al. 2016), is to avoid over or underestimations of the species’ ´ ´ negative (Tellez-Valdes and Vila-Aranda 2003; Butler movements, which could lead to suboptimal informa- et al. 2012), or mixed (Cortes et al. 2014) outcomes. tion for the conservation of this highly vulnerable Given the threatened status of numerous species family. Hence, we aim to analyze to what extent the within this family, a relevant conservation issue is to predictions of both extremes of the migration spec- what extent the impact of climate change (i.e. positive trum coincide, and based on these results, identify the or negative in terms of range size) will be correlated limitations of the method and its applications to with the conservation status of the species (e.g. develop conservation measures for the target taxa. threatened or non-threatened). It should be noted that Matching patterns between both migration scenarios current literature on this and other taxa indicates that indicate that conservation measures can be planned analyzing the effects of climate change from a multi- and developed even in the absence of fine migration species approach with a wide variety of ecological data. On the contrary, mismatching patterns between preferences may lead to a discordant scenario, with migration scenarios indicate high uncertainty in the species showing large increases in their suitable cli- predictions, and therefore dispersal processes should matic areas (i.e. winner species), whereas other be included to accurately evaluate species vulnerabil- species are expected to show significant reductions ity (Morin and Thuiller 2009; Franklin 2010). ´ (i.e. loser species) in them (Araujo et al. 2011; Cortes Finally, in order to deepen our ecological under- et al. 2014). Accordingly, three outcomes are possible. standing of how the impacts of climate change are Under the null hypothesis, the impact of climate organized across different species of the Cactaceae, change could be randomly distributed across threat we analyzed how the predicted impacts of climate status. The alternative hypothesis offers two opposite change on species’ distribution are correlated with outcomes. In the first, climate change could reduce the species’ traits. Understanding the relationship climatically suitable area for threatened species sig- between species traits and climate change effects is a nificantly more than for the non-threatened; under this highly active area of research in global change studies scenario, climate change could exacerbate current (e.g., Williams et al. 2008; Buckley and Kingsolver conservation threats at the species level. In the second, 2012; Estrada et al. 2015). Specifically, we selected non-threatened species will be negatively impacted, five traits that have been described as correlated to showing a reduction in their suitable climatic condi- differential sensitivity to climate change in other case tions, whereas threatened species would maintain or studies (Table 1). Analyzing the results of these even increase their suitable areas under climate relationships are relevant, as this contributes to change; this would indicate an enhanced vulnerability identifying climate-sensitive biogeographical and at the supraspecific level. functional groups of species. Predictions on changes in the extent of climatic Under the general aim of assessing the future suitable areas cannot be considered realistic unless impact of climate change on the distribution of cacti refined dispersal or movement processes are included species in Baja California, Mexico, our specific 123 Plant Ecol (2021) 222:29–44 31 Table 1 Traits related with species sensitivity to climate change Trait Pattern observed Author Range size Species with more restricted ranges are more sensitive Johnson (1998), Thuiller et al. (2005) to climate change Niche breadth Generalist species, which by definition can tolerate a Brown (1995), Thuiller et al. (2005), Po¨yry broad range of conditions, can cope better with et al. (2009), Carrillo-Angeles et al. (2016) climate change than specialist ones (for Cactaceae) Growth form The growth form of cacti species is related to Mourelle and Ezcurra (1997) differential habitat requirements. Globose cacti have shown higher habitat specificity, opuntioid cacti are a more cosmopolitan group, and columnar cacti appears to be limited by low temperatures Succulent plants display a clear relationship between their morphological traits and climatic conditions Main climatic distribution Due to the more idiosyncratic nature of changes in Parra and Monahan (2008), Anado´n et al. driver (temperature vs precipitation induced by climate change, it has been (2015) precipitation) proposed that the impact of climate change on those species controlled mostly by precipitation are more variable and species-specific than those in species mostly controlled by temperature Chorotype Relating species chorotypes to their percentage of Thuiller et al. (2005) habitat range expansion or contraction, enables the identification of biogeographical patterns of species response to climate change, as well as future trends and directions of the ecosystem objectives are: (1) To assess how
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