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A Balance Sheet Dilip M Nachane Two Decades of Structural Reforms in India: A Balance Sheet Dilip M Nachane P R DUBHASHI PUBLIC LECTURE, 2007 GOKHALE INSTITUTE OF POLITICS AND ECONOMICS (University Under Section 3 of the UGC Act, 1956) PUNE 411004 Professor D.M. Nachane - one of leading Indian economists of our time - is currently holding the post of Director at the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai. Obtaining double masters in Mathematics and Economics from the University of Bombay, he completed his doctoral study on Optimal Growth Theory in 1973. Since then he has been on the faculty of Economics Department at Bombay University till 1999 when he had joined IGIDR as Senior Professor. Professor Nachane is widely acclaimed both for his depth of scholarship and for his seminal contributions in the wide range of economic theories, economic thought, and econometric techniques. He has authored many prominent books and has contributed numerous academic papers in various learned academic journals. Professor Nachane has held several visiting academic assignment abroad namely, Fulbright Post-Doctoral Fellowship at University of Texas, Austin, USA during 1983-84, Hallsworth Fellowship at the University of Manchester, UK, during 1997-98, and Jean Monnet Fellowship at the European University Institute, Italy in 2002, apart from Visiting Professorship at the University British Columbia, Canada (1988-89), at University of Ulster, UK (1991-92), at Otto von Guericke University, Germany in summers (2002-2004). Professor Nachane, who has been actively involved in several important Committees and Working Groups commissioned by the Reserve Bank of India and the Government of Maharashtra , was elected as the President of the Indian Econometric Society. He was the recipient of UGC Prnavanand Saraswati Award in 2004 in recognition of his outstanding contributions to teaching and research. Two Decades of StruCtural Reforms in . India: A Balance Sheet Dilip M Nachane P R DUBHASHI PUBLIC LECTURE, 2007 GOKHALE INSTITUTE OF, POLITICS AND ECONOMICS ·(University Under Section 3 of the UGC Act, 1956) · PUNE 411 004 © Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics (University Under Section 3 of the UGCAct, 1956) Pune 411004 Price: Rs. 55/- PRINTED IN INDIA by SK Prinler8, ParafApartments, 205 Shaniwar Peth, Pune 411 030, and edited and published by Arup Maharatna at the Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics (University Under Section 3 of the UGC Act, 1956), BMCC Road, Pune 411 004 (India). Two Decades of Structural Reforms in India: A Balance Sheet* Dilip M Nachane•• I Post-reforms Resurgence of the Indian Economy By all the extern_aily visible signs, t~_c::_Indian reforms story has been a remarkable success. As Table 1A shows, after a long period of stagnation in .the years following Independence, __ growth rates shifted into high gear sometime during the 1980s and in the last decade accelerated sharply, reaching undreamt of stratospheric heights (of between eight per cent to 10 per cent) in the last four years. As seen in Table lB, high growth rates coupled with declining population growth rates have given a noticeably upward movement to per capita incomes. Further (see Table 1C), India's recent growth record has been bettered among the Asian countries only by China (Mainland). This growth resurgence has enabled India to move up in the world per capita (PPP-corrected) GDP rankings from 93 (out of a total of 109 countries) in the mid-1970s to 58 by 2004 (Basu and Maertens 2007). 1 On several other macroeconomic indicators, the country has been doing equally well. Investment as a proportion of GDP, for example, rose from about 10 per cent in the 1950s to about 23 per cent in the early 1980s and to about 34 per cent currently. Similarly, India today qualifies as an "open economy" with exports (as a percentage of GDP) amounting to nearly 20 per cent, as compared to less than five per cent in the mid­ sixties. And finally on the forex front, we have transited from a perennially shortage situation to one that can only be described as an "embarrassment of riches".· All these trends, coupled with a secular • Text of Second Dubhashi Lecture delivered at the Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics (Pune) on !Oih December 2007. It is a pleasure to record my appreciation of Professor Arup Maharatna, Officiating Director, GJPE for kindly inviting me to deliver the Lecture. The valuable comments of Dr. Mohan Rao, Dr. Manoj Panda, Dr. Jayen Thomas, Dr. S.L. Shetty and Dr. Maathai Mathiyazhagan are gratefully acknowledged. None of the aforementioned. however, is responsible for any errors or shortcomings in the paper. The views expressed are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute that he works for. •• Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), General Vaidya Marg, Goregaon (East), Mumbai 400 065, India. 1 However, Table ID has the sobering effect of reminding us that we are well behind world levels and still have a long way to go before converging to the East Asian rate. 2 Dilip M Nac~ane decline in the headline inflation rates to their current historical laws, seem to have made India a darling of the Western media, with much euphoric outpourings from a section of Western academics and th~. Indian intelligentsia. The Indian diaspora in particular, which has been championing the case for reforms right from the beginning, has with a great deal of pride, put itself in a self-congratulatory mode. Table lA: Growth Rates in India over Successive Plan Periods Plan Period Annual Growth Rate of GOP Average Annual Gross Domestic Capital Fonnation (Factor Cost) (%) As Per Cent of GOP At Factor Cost(%) 1951-1956 3.6 10.30 1956-1961 4.2 . 15.40 1961-1966 2.8 15.60 1969-1974 .3.3 17.00 1974-1979 4.8" 20.20 1980-1985 5.6 21.90 1985-1990 6.0 25.20 1992-1997 6.7 25.40 1997-2002 5.5 25.90 2002-2003 3.8 27.51 2003-2004 8.5 29.57 2004-2005 7.5 33.04 2005-2006 9.0 (PE) 2006-2007 9.2 (QE) Source: Basu and Maertens (2007). Table lB: Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, India, 1960-2005 Year Population GOP GOP Per Capita (Million) (Dillion Constant 2000 US$) (Constant 2000 US $) 1960 435 76.283 175 1965 487 91.054 187 1970 548 113.606 207 1975 613 130.913 213 1980 687 152.621 222 1985 765 198.167 . 259 1990 850 268.023 316 1995 932 345.394 371 2000 1016 457.377 450 2005 1095 641.926 586 Source: World Development Indicators (2006). Reforms: Balance Sheet 3 Table lC: Growth Rates (Per Cent) For Selected Countries in Asia, 1980- 2003 Country 1981-1990 1991-1997 199K-2003 India .5.6 (5.4) 5.3 (5.7) 5.7 (5.5) China (Mainland) 8.9 (8.8) 10.3 (10.2) 8.0 (7.8) China (Hong Kong) 6.3 (6.2) 5.5 (5.3) 2.2 (2.4) Singapore 6.9 (7.5) 8.4 (8.2) 2.7 (2.2) Bangladesh 3.9 (4.0) 4.5 (4.5) 5.0 (5.0) Indonesia 5.3 (5.4) 6.7 (6.8) 4.0 (3.9) Korea 8.3 (8.3) 6.7 (6.8) 3.9 (5.4) Malaysia 5.8 (6.2) 8.8 (9.0) 2.7 (3.4) Thailand 7.6 (7.3) 6.5 (7.6) 4.7 (4.9) Pakistan 6.0 (6.0) 4.1 (4.2) 3.5 (3.3) Sri Lanka 4.2 (4.3) 5.1 (5.1) 3.8 (4.6) Note: The figures in brackets represent the winsori1.ed growth rates (i.e., calculated by omiuing the highest and lowest observations over each sub-period). Source: International Financial St::nistics, IMF. Without in any way dismissing or even belittling these achievements, it behaves Indian academics and policymakers alike to examine the entire gamut of issues emanating from these outwardly benign signals, in a dispassionate manner, bereft of ideological barnacles. The issues of course, span several dimensions, not all of which can be encompassed within the scope of a single paper. I therefore, concentrate here on some issues which I believe to be of cardinal significance. It has now become conventional to attribute this economic surge in India (as well as, other rapidly growing LDCs/EMEs (such as Viet Nam) to the triad of marketization, democratization and globalization, though this view, of course, has also been sporadically (though fiercely) contested. I take as the starting point of my analysis, an examination of the theoretical case for market-oriented reforms (Section II). In this connection, a considerable amount of analysis has been devoted to the timing of the high growth phase in India, or in Rostowian terms the ushering in of the "take-off'. We review this issue in Section III. An important prerequisite for sustainability is sound macroeconomic management and hence this issue is discussed in Section IV. The next issue (Section V) that we take up, pertains to the composition and the sources of economic growth, as this yields important insights on the welfare connotation of the growth which is occurring, as well as, the sustainability of the recorded growth momentum. Structural issues impinging on long term sustainability such . as employment, poverty 4 Dilip M Nachane reduction, inequality and the environment are treated in the subsequent three sections (Sections VI to VIII). Conclusions and prognostications are gathered in the final Section (Section IX). II Is There A Theoretical Case for Market-Oriented Reforms? The Neo-classical Orthodoxy The intellectual underpinnings of reforms are deeply imbedded in the doctrines of neo-classical economics, which has over the years emerged as the unchallenged mainstream economics doctrine.
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