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MAPRO: Mass Atrocity Prevention and Response Options MAPRO: Mass Atrocity Prevention & Response Options : A Policy Planning Handbook PKSOI Handbook Planning : A Policy Options & Response Prevention Atrocity Mass MAPRO: MAPROMAPRO Mass Atrocity Prevention & Response Options A Policy Planning Handbook Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute MASS ATROCITY PREVENTION AND RESPONSE OPTIONS (MAPRO): A POLICY PLANNING HANDBOOK Dedicated to the memory of our colleague, Don Braum Marine, Foreign Service Officer, and Humanitarian This document is intended as an informal White Paper for members of the policy community who are concerned with mass atrocity prevention and response. It is not prescriptive or authoritative, nor should it be construed as official U.S. government policy. Cover Photograph: Sub-camp BI-A at Auschwitz-Birkenau. March 2012 U.S. Army Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute Carlisle, Pennsylvania Mass Atrocity Prevention and Response Options (MAPRO): A Policy Planning Handbook Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................... 1 I. Introduction .................................................................................... 8 Genocide and Other Mass Atrocities: Context, Significance, and Definitions ........................................................................... 8 How Genocides and Mass Atrocities Develop ...........................12 U.S. Policy and MAPRO Challenges ............................................16 Purpose and Outline of the MAPRO Handbook .........................23 II. Formulating Options, Policies, and Plans ......................................27 Participants and Stakeholders ...................................................28 Levels of Planning ......................................................................31 MAPRO Policy and Planning Framework ...................................33 Step 0: Routine Monitoring and Engagement ........................34 Step 1: Problem Identification and Initial Guidance ...............34 Step 2: Situation Analysis and Assessment ............................38 Step 3: Policy Formulation .....................................................52 Step 4: Plan Development ......................................................57 Step 5: Execution ...................................................................67 III. Applying Elements of National Influence .....................................69 General Policy Options ..............................................................69 MAPRO Guidelines and Cross-Cutting Considerations .............. 72 MAPRO Policy Risks ...................................................................77 DIME Tools.................................................................................81 Diplomatic Measures .......................................................85 Informational Measures ...................................................96 Military Measures ...........................................................103 Economic Measures ........................................................115 IV. Conclusion .................................................................................121 Annexes iii List of Annexes A. Presidential Study Directive on Mass Atrocities (PSD-10) B. Genocide Prevention Task Force (GPTF) Summary of Recommendations C. UN Office of the Special Advisor for the Prevention of Genocide (OSAPG) Analysis Framework D. Suggested Formats Tab 1: Initial Guidance Tab 2: Conflict Assessment Enclosure I: Conflict Assessment Briefing Enclosure II: Sample Conflict Assessment (Rwanda 1994) Tab 3: Situation Analysis and Assessment Briefing Tab 4: Policy Advisory Memorandum Enclosure I: Policy Advisory Briefing Tab 5: Policy Statement Enclosure I: Sample Policy Statement Tab 6: Options Approval Briefing Tab 7: Options Decision Briefing Tab 8: USG Strategic Plan Tab 9: Backbrief Format Tab 10: Situation Update Format E. Interagency Planning Team / Community of Interest Procedures F. Legal Considerations G. Strategic Communication H. References Acronyms About the Handbook iv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY “Governmental engagement on atrocities and genocide too often arrives too late, when opportunities for preven- tion or low-cost, low-risk action have been missed. By the time these issues have commanded the attention of senior policy makers, the menu of options has shrunk considerably and the costs of action have risen. In the face of a potential mass atrocity, our options are never limited to either sending in the military or standing by and doing nothing. The actions that can be taken are many—they range from economic to diplomatic interven- tions and from non combat military actions to outright intervention. But ensuring that the full range of options is available requires a level of governmental organization that matches the methodical organization characteristic of mass killings.” (Presidential Study Directive on Mass Atroci- ties (PSD-10)) This Handbook is designed to be a reference for policy makers to monitor, prevent, and if necessary respond to genocide and other mass atrocity situations. It addresses topics promulgated in the August 2011 Presidential Study Directive on Mass Atrocities (PSD-10) as well as recommen- dations contained in Preventing Genocide, the 2008 study published by the Genocide Prevention Task Force (GPTF). Effective mass atrocity prevention and response op- tions (MAPRO) should happen early. The longer it takes to act, the greater the risk that mass atrocities will occur and more people will die. On the other hand, inadequate time devoted to planning and risk assessment can result in ineffective MAPRO measures or undesired second-order effects. This is why it is essential for the USG and the in- 1 ternational community to have in-place policies, plans, doctrine, and procedures before we are faced with mass atrocity situations. Failure to respond to mass atrocities is often attributed to lack of political will, but ineffective policy processes are also culpable. This Handbook has been developed to as- sist members of the interagency policy community in de- veloping whole-of-government prevention and response options to assist senior leaders who are deliberating geno- cide and/or mass atrocity (GMA) situations. The templates in this Handbook are intended as aids in this process, and should be adapted as appropriate to fit circumstances and personalities involved. They may serve as useful points of departure for seasoned practitioners as well as relative newcomers to policymaking. Important studies on U.S. Government MAPRO re- sponses have observed that the policymaking process is skewed towards inaction. This is due, in part, to govern- ment processes emphasizing the potential risks and costs of positive action. It is also due to the sheer challenge of interagency information processing and decision-making. The main goal of this Handbook is to offer a process and substantive MAPRO considerations to help the policy com- munity digest information, develop a variety of options, and tee up relevant information for decision makers. Ad- ditionally, the MAPRO Handbook seeks to reduce the risks and costs related to MAPRO, by capitalizing on a range of current, in-place engagement activities that can be applied to prevent and mitigate potential threats before they esca- late to actual mass atrocities. Part I of the MAPRO Handbook introduces background and context, and defines mass atrocities as “Widespread and often systematic acts of violence against civilians or other noncombatants including killing; causing serious bodily or mental harm; or deliberately inflicting conditions 2 of life that cause serious bodily or mental harm.” It de- scribes how genocides and mass atrocities often develop and highlights the governmental challenges of identifying GMA situations, deciding what to do about them, and tak- ing action to prevent or respond. While it is unlikely that a common MAPRO strategy can be developed with universal applicability, six guidelines should be kept in mind when developing MAPRO policies and plans: • Prevention is preferable to response. • The U.S. has a wide range of diplomatic, informa- tional, military, and economic tools that should be considered and integrated. • Policy makers must understand the complete con- text of the situation. • Quick action is important to address concerns and take advantage of opportunities. • Multilateral efforts are preferable to unilateral ac- tion. • Planning for transitions and endstates should begin as early as possible. Part II explains a six-step MAPRO Policy and Plan- ning Framework that is applicable for deliberate long- range contingency situations as well as short-fused crisis response. It can be applied iteratively as situations change and require new assessments and planning. In addition to explaining how the framework can help structure an Inter- agency Planning Team’s (IPT) MAPRO efforts, the Hand- book addresses potential actors, conflict environments, national interests, assumptions, and other relevant consid- erations. 3 In combination with the Tabs in Annex D, Part II offers templates that an IPT can tailor to particular situations. These templates are intended to help the IPT develop the necessary products to support the MAPRO Policy and Plan- ning Framework, obviating the need to start from scratch in each case. While each scenario is unique, many plans could be structured in accordance with the following: Suggested MAPRO Plan Phases Phase I: Prevention Stage IA: Steady-State Engagement Stage IB: Targeted
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