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Is a United Ireland Inevitable? 5 Seán Mitchell Is a united Ireland inevitable? 5 Seán Mitchell United Ireland is inevitable. Or at least that appears Voice leader Jim Allister said Robinson was feeding “the to be the consensus from a string of commentators, republican myth of the inevitability of Irish unity”. Akeen to outdo each other with predictions about Still, for a former leader of the DUP—who for many the post-Brexit era. Even those who do not tout the years was the strong-arm sidekick of Ian Paisley—to inevitability of a United Ireland, suggest that we should pronounce his willingness to prepare for a United at least prepare for its potentiality. Indeed, this was this Ireland, something significant must be occurring. And basis of a surprising intervention by the former DUP the polls would appear to confirm his assumption, leader Peter Robinson on the subject. Speaking recently given the rising support for a united Ireland. One at the MacGill Summer School, in County Donegal, recent survey conducted by Lucid Talk for the BBC, for Robinson stated: “I don’t believe Northern Ireland will example, found that 45% of people in the North wanted want to leave the United Kingdom, but if it does happen to remain as part of the UK, while 42.1% said they we would be in a terrible fix because we would be in the would like to join the Republic of Ireland. 12.7% said same situation as leaving the EU where nothing was they didn’t know. Whether this poll is accurate or not negotiated or decided about what was going to happen is hard to judge. And it is true that other surveys have after.” Robinson suggested, following this, that Unionists put the margin much more in favour of remaining in the should engage in a discussion as to what a post united UK, with one survey by Queens University suggesting Ireland might look like. “I don’t expect my own house to support for unity could be as low as 21%. Whatever the burn down, “ he told his audience, “but I still insure it.” precise margin of difference, however, all of the polls Certainly Robinson’s intervention might have as are consistent that support for a united Ireland is on the much to do with the internal dynamics of a fractious rise. That much we can be certain of. DUP, as it does with the future make-up of a united This should be welcome news to socialists and pro- Ireland. Arlene Foster has been a sitting duck as leader gressives across Ireland. Partition is a thoroughly re- since Stormont was engulfed by the RHI scandal, and actionary device, arising from a counter-revolutionary all manner of manoeuvres both public and private are at movement supported by British imperialism in order to work. Nor can Robinson claim to speak for the rest of the set up a ‘carnival of reaction’, that has copper fastened DUP, with his speech being met with a general hostility two rotten states over the last century. And it is not just from former party colleagues. DUP MP Sammy Wilson the physical divide between North and South that mat- led the charge, describing the comments as “dangerous ters. Sectarianism exists, and is perpetually recreated, and demoralising,” before proffering his own analogous precisely because of the way that partition guarantees description of the juncture; “I don’t prepare to go to the maintenance of a sectarian state, that shapes every the moon in Richard Branson’s space shuttle because political question in a communal manner. We are op- I have no intention of ending up there.” Other unionists posed to sectarianism, then, but we also understand that replied in a similar vein; former Ulster Unionist Party sectarianism can only be overcome as part of a simulta- leader Reg Empey accused Robinson of “becoming a neous challenge to the structures that enshrine it. This Sinn Féin echo chamber,” while Traditional Unionist includes partition. And in the South partition has been IRISH MARXIST REVIEW 6 key to maintaining the rule of the ‘civil war parties’— to have imposed austerity in Ireland, in the North Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil—and the golden circle of class people were more likely to point the finger at the corruption that their state is built upon. Furthermore, Tories in London. During the peace process, the EU partition is used by the ruling class as a means to assist was consistently promoted as a benign and supportive in the neo liberal transformation of Ireland. Just look at partner in the move away from conflict. Most notably, how the border is used to justify lowering corporation the EU has funded the PEACE I, II, III IV programmes in tax, or to keep wages low in order to ensure ‘competi- the North; which according to its authors was designed tiveness’ between the North and the South. to promote “cohesion between communities involved Socialists, therefore, are opposed to partition and in the conflict in Northern Ireland and the border to both states in Ireland. We stand in the tradition of counties of Ireland.” Figures vary as to how much the James Connolly, and fight for a Socialist Ireland as part North actually received from the EU. Leave supporters of a wider struggle for international socialism. And we argued that the North was a net contributor to the EU, welcome the opportunity to engage in a process that whilst remain supporters claimedto the contrary that might reshape Ireland for the many and not the few. it was a net beneficiary of anywhere up to £58 million. But we should be cautious, too, about falling behind But whatever the true figure, few trusted that a Tory any mythical notion that a united Ireland is in anyway government would automatically honour the money for predestined, or that Nationalist leaders will lead us to projects previously in receipt of EU funding. one. Many people have suggested the same in the past. In the North, and to some extent in Scotland, there is History hasn’t been kind to them. a growing sense that the Tories simply do as they please, against the wishes of the ‘devolved’ regions. The whole The Return of the National Question Brexit debate has been seen as another example of this, Despite pretences to the contrary, usually by overeager and the subsequent failure of Westminster to include mouthpieces of the British and Irish governments, these areas in any meaningful way in the negotiations the Irish national question has never been resolved. with the EU—and its willingness to use the border as Certainly, the last twenty years have not been marred by a political football—has only exacerbated this further. the intensity of violence witnessed during the Troubles, The terms of debate in the EU referendum, and the and this has been a welcome development. But on a discussion about a post Brexit future, are set in London. number of occasions since the Belfast Agreement in The absence of any serious left-led campaign for exit in 1998, the Northern state has entered into a fit of crises, Britain, and the subsequent failure of the British left to revealing its deeply engrained contradictions. Most agitate for a post Brexit program that took seriously its recently, this has led to increasedinterest in a United impact on Ireland (beyond the occasional nod to support Ireland. There are, I think, four main reasons for this. for a united Ireland, without any suggestion as to how The first is Brexit, and its subsequent fallout. This one might be achieved, or how the more immediate might seem ironic, given the certainty of sections of issues around the border may be ameliorated), has only the Tory right that exiting the EU would strengthen the heightened the sense that Brexit is a London-centric British state. In reality, however, Brexit has accelerated fight between Tory public school boys with no benefit to the deep contradictions of that state; placing question people in Ireland. marks over the future viability of the UK particularly Perhaps the greatest Brexit related factor has been in Scotland and the North of Ireland. In the 2016 EU fear of instability. It was this factor that precipitated Peter referendum, a clear majority of voters in the North opted Robinson to make his intervention on a united Ireland. to remain. This tendency was particularly pronounced As he said in his speech: “No matter how one views amongst Nationalists, and those who deem themselves the Brexit process it has been disruptive, distracting as “other” (ie neither nationalist or unionist). The and - let’s face it—wearisome. It could not have been primary reason for this was the underdevelopment of otherwise. For a sustained period there has been a the North as an economic region, and the fear that a settled understanding of the constitutional position of Tory-led Brexit would disproportionately impact the Northern Ireland and its interaction with both the rest area. Whereas in the South the EU was seen by many of the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland. Shaking that tree was certain to cause an abundant fall- Nationalism. If you are aged 18-20 today, you were not 7 out.” Robinson is not alone on this point. Rarely a week born when the ceasefires were called, and still weren’t goes by without some commentator or other exalting the when the Belfast Agreement was signed. Certainly, dangers of a return to the Troubles if Brexit goes ahead. Of there is no uniformity here. And BBC producers will course, much of this is hyped-up guff; the likelihood that not have any difficulty finding some pre-prepped a new generation of Catholic youth will rise up to reclaim A-Level student who will tell the politicians that young their European identity is fanciful in the extreme.
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