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Assessment of Policy Rate Transmission to Prime Lending Rates In Assessment of Policy Rate Transmission to Prime Lending Rates in the Banking Industry June 2021 June 2021 Lending Rates on New Loans Starting to Track Upward Trend Despite Lower Deposit Rates The banking industry has continued to lower prime lending rates (PLR), although the magnitude of reductions has slowed. The cost of loanable funds (CoLF) is still edging prime lending rates down, yet higher profit margins have offset further reductions. The risk premium in the banking industry is trending upwards, pointing to a higher risk perception of the corporate sector. Consequently, state-owned banks, national private commercial banks and regional government banks raised lending rates on new loans in April 2021. Response of Prime Lending Rates1 and Deposit Rates to BI7DRR2 The banking industry has continued to lower prime lending rates (PLR) in response to the BI policy rate, although the magnitude of reductions has slowed. In April 2021, prime lending rates recorded further declines, yet the pace has decelerated in line with Bank Indonesia's BI7DRR stance that has been held since March 2021. On average, PLR decreased 3bps (mtm) in April 2021 compared with 15bps (mtm) in March 2021 and 98bps (mtm) in February 2021. In the period from April 2020 to April 2021, however, PLR fell by 177bps (yoy) compared with a 100bps reduction recorded in the BI7DRR over the same period, thereby narrowing the spread between the PLR and BI7DRR from 6.14% in April 2020 to 5.37% in April 2021 (decreasing 77bps). On the other hand, deposit rates remained more responsive, retreating 207bps (yoy) and widening the spread between the PLR and 1-month term deposit (TD) rate from 4.91% to 5.20% (increasing 29bps) in the same period (Graph 1). Graph 1 Prime Lending Rate, BI7DRR and 1-Month Term Deposit Rate Performance 14 12 10.64 10 8.87 8 6.14 5.73 % 5.37 6 4.91 5.20 4 4.50 3.66 3.50 2 0 Jul Jul Jul Jul Agt Agt Agt Agt Okt Apr Okt Apr Apr Okt Apr Okt Apr Jan Mei Jun Jan Mei Jun Jan Mei Jun Jan Mei Jun Jan Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Nov Sep Des Sep Nov Des Sep Nov Des Sep Nov Des 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Spread (SBDK - BI7DRR) Spread (SBDK - Sb depo 1 bln) SBDK Deposito 1 bulan Source: Financial Services Authority (OJK) and Commercial Bank Reports, processed By bank group, state-owned banks were the main driver of lower PLR in the banking industry. The PLR published by state- owned banks experienced the deepest decline of all bank groups, namely 269bps (yoy) during the period from April 2020 to April 2021, prompted by a significant reduction in February 2021. Meanwhile, the prime lending rates offered by regional government banks, national private commercial banks and foreign bank branches decreased respectively by 118bps (yoy), 116bps (yoy) and 58bps (yoy). Compared with conditions the month earlier, however, only national private commercial banks and regional government banks 1 The Prime Lending Rate (PLR) is published by banks in accordance with OJK Regulation (POJK) No. 37/POJK.03/2019, dated 19th December 2019, concerning Bank Report Transparency and Publication. The PLR is used as a base for setting the interest rate charged by the bank to debtors but does not consider the individual borrower’s risk premium component. Therefore, the interest rate that is charged to debtors is not necessarily equal to the PLR. 2 Using data available at end of March 2021. 1 continued to lower prime lending rates, by 4bps and 9bps (mtm) respectively, contrasting the 19bps (mtm) PLR hike recorded at foreign bank branches (Graph 2). Graph 2. Prime Lending Rates by Bank Group Graph 3. Prime Lending Rate Performance by Component 5.5 14 % 5.0 4.53 12 11.39 4.5 4.0 10.53 3.48 10 % 9.35 3.5 10.21 3.20 9.05 3.18 3.0 2.62 8 7.15 8.70 2.5 2.48 6.57 6 2.0 Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Apr Apr Okt Apr Okt Apr Okt Okt Apr Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Okt Okt Apr Apr Apr Okt Apr Jan Jan Jan Jan 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 BPD BUMN BUSN KCBA HPDK OHC Margin Keuntungan Source: Financial Services Authority (OJK), processed Source: Financial Services Authority (OJK), processed Prime Lending Rate by Component By component3, the cost of loanable funds (CoLF) remained the main contributor to lower PLR. The CoLF recorded a 129bps (yoy) decrease between April 2020 and April 2021, while OHC and profit margin posted respective declines of 28bps and 14bps (yoy) (Graph 3). During the reporting period, all bank groups reported a lower CoLF in line with loose liquidity conditions in the banking system (Graph 4). The CoLF at foreign bank branches and state-owned banks recorded the deepest declines of 188bps (yoy) and 163bps (yoy) respectively from April 2020 to April 2021, compared with just 100bps (yoy) at regional government banks. Graph 4 CoLF Components by Bank Group Graph 5 Profit Margin by Bank Group 3.5 7.0 3.0 3.02 2.69 5.0 2.68 4.80 2.62 2.54 % 2.5 4.57 2.48 % 4.54 3.80 2.25 2.33 3.38 2.0 3.0 3.64 2.94 2.10 1.93 1.76 1.5 Jul Jul Jul Jul Okt Apr Okt Apr Apr Okt Apr Okt Apr Jan Jan Jan Jan 1.0 Jan Jul Jul Jul Jul Apr Okt Apr Okt Apr Okt Apr Okt Apr Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 BPD BUMN BUSN BPD BUMN BUSN KCBA KCBA Industri Source: Financial Services Authority (OJK), processed Source: Financial Services Authority (OJK), processed 3 Pursuant to OJK Regulation (POJK) No. 37/POJK.03/2019 concerning Bank Report Transparency and Publication, the PLR consists of three components, namely; (i) the cost of loanable funds (CoLF), including the cost of funds, cost of services, regulatory costs and other costs; (ii) overhead costs (OHC), including labour costs, education and training costs, research and development costs, rental costs, promotion and marketing costs, maintenance and repair costs, fixed asset and inventory depreciation costs as well as other overhead costs; and (iii) profit margin, which is determined by the respective bank for lending activity. 2 In general, profit margins in 2021 have decreased compared with conditions in 2020, excluding national private commercial banks. During the period from April 2020 to April 2021, state-owned banks, foreign bank branches and regional government banks narrowed profit margins by 69bps, 17bps and 15bps (yoy) respectively. Conversely, profit margins at national private commercial banks increased 43bps (yoy) over the same period (Graph 5). In the near term, the dynamics of PLR components are characterised predominantly by higher profit margins in the banking industry amidst a lower cost of loanable funds (CoLF). Compared with conditions one month earlier, the CoLR component fell 10bps (mtm) in April 2021 (Graph 3). The deepest CoLF decline was recorded by national private commercial banks at 13bps (mtm), contrasting the modest 8bps (mtm) decrease at state-owned banks. On the other hand, the profit margin component increased 5bps (mtm) in April 2021 (Graph 5), with all bank groups reporting gains, except regional government banks, led by national private commercial banks at 9bps (mtm), followed by foreign bank branches and state-owned banks at 3bps (mtm) each. Risk Premium The banking industry has raised the risk premium, particularly at national private commercial banks. From April 2020 to April 2021, the risk premium in the banking industry increased 33bps (yoy) (Graph 7), dominated by national private commercial banks at 74bps (yoy) and state-owned banks at 9bps (yoy). In contrast, the risk premium at foreign bank branches and regional government banks fell respectively by 39bps (yoy) and 31bps (yoy) in the reporting period (Graph 8). The higher risk premium at national private commercial banks and state-owned banks was influenced by high-risk perception in response to the elevated loans at risk (LaR)4 indicator at both bank groups in April 2021 (Graph 9). Graph 7. Risk Premium Graph 8. Risk Premium by Bank Group 1.80 15.00 3.5 1.70 3.0 1.69 1.60 2.5 2.01 2.39 1.50 1.38 2.0 % 1.40 11.00 1.65 % 1.70 1.5 1.30 10.64 1.09 1.18 1.20 8.87 Source:1.0 Financial Services Authority (OJK), processed 1.10 0.79 0.5 0.40 1.00 7.00 0.0 Jul Jul Jul Jul Apr Okt Apr Okt Apr Okt Apr Okt Apr Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jul Jul Jul Jul Apr Okt Apr Okt Apr Okt Apr Okt Apr Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 SBDK Premi Risiko (RHS) BPD BUMN BUSN KCBA Source: Financial Services Authority (OJK), processed Source: Financial Services Authority (OJK), processed Graph 9. Loans at Risk (LaR) Graph 10. Risk Premium at National Private Commercial Banks by Credit Segment 30 4.0 6 4.97 25 26.41 4.86 23.60 3.0 2.61 4 20 2.39 2.03 2.34 % 15 2.0 2.23 % % 1.65 1.80 10 11.60 1.42 2 6.93 1.0 1.18 5 1.15 0 0.0 0 Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Okt Apr Apr Okt Apr Okt Apr Jan Jan Jan Jan Okt Okt Okt Apr Apr Apr Apr Jan Jan Jan Jan 2018 2019 2020 2021 2018 2019 2020 2021 Konsumsi KPR Konsumsi Non KPR BPD BUMN BUSN KCBA Korporasi Ritel Total Mikro (RHS) Source: Commercial Bank Reports, processed Source: Financial Services Authority (OJK), processed 4 Loans at Risk (LaR) include restructured outstanding loans with a collectability score of 1, outstanding loans with a collectability score of 2 as well as non-performing loans (NPL).
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