Submission to the Senate Inquiry:

Response to, and lessons learnt from, recent bushfires in remote Tasmanian wilderness.

Summary

This submission addresses “part f) any related matter”, as it refers to events occurring outside the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area. Nevertheless, it is the opinion of the author that these events deserve scrutiny in that the bushfires occurring in a wilderness area (ie the Tarkine) as a result of climate change impacts, bore direct adverse impacts on public health, animal welfare and regional economics for a prolonged period due to inadequate planning and resourcing of fire fighting services. This occurred despite recent recommendations in the 2013 Tasmanian Bushfires Inquiry advising early and comprehensive intervention in remote fires. These are dealt with in Part 1. Additionally, the Tarkine area has been identified as having World Heritage Values and campaigns continue to have this area recognized as a National Park. There was significant impact on this landscape in the recent fire events resulting from global warming climate and weather outcomes, and delayed fire fighting response due to lack of resources despite recommendations made repeatedly in previous years. This is addressed in Part 2. Several aspects of this Northwest fire event are pertinent to the other terms of reference listed. This submission seeks to examine the events in detail: the timing, resources, coordination and limitations of the emergency response, the fire behavior & its predictability, wilderness and industry environmental factors precipitating the event, the relevant local impacts of global warming, and make some recommendations to direct future emergency response to wilderness fires posing significant risk to adjacent communities and globally significant natural values. The narrative covering the local timeline was originally written at the time of the events, or very soon afterwards, by the author who has lived and worked in this area for over 10 years. Additional reference details, screenshots, photographs and maps supporting this submission are

1 available upon request and are not included with this document due to the large amount of data.

About the Author

Dr. Nicole Isabella Anderson BNurs;MBBS(Qld);FRACGP;GradDipDiv;FAWM

Rural Medical Practitioner and Director of the Smithton Medical Services.

Visiting Medical Officer, Department of Health and Human Services, Smithton District Hospital.

Fellow of the Royal Australasian College of General Practitioners

Fellow of the Academy of Wilderness Medicine

Volunteer with the State Emergency Service Northwest Remote Area Search and Rescue

Landscape Photographer, Expeditioner, Citizen Scientist (Naturalist) and Explorer

Introduction

On the night of the 13th January 2016, several dry lightning strikes caused remote bushfires across the state of Tasmania. In the far Northwest region, about 12 such fires were noted the following day and displayed on the Tasmanian Fire Service (TFS) website alert map. The weather forecast for the next two weeks was grim – continued very dry weather and strong winds, and another episode of dry lightning on the 28th January. On the 15th January, a Public Health warning (Mitchell & Johnstone, n.d.) (Director of Public Health, 2016) was issued for the far Northwest town of Smithton which had already been blanketed in thick smoke (Ted O'Connor, 2016). Of most concern were those suffering frailty and chronic heart and respiratory ailments given the risk of acute and chronic sequelae (Ryan, 2013). Shannon Fox, Burnie Incident Controller warned on the Jan 16th "[We are] really concerned about what the fires will do." (Ted O'Connor, 2016). To yet

2 unfold was a juxtaposition of climatically induced wilderness stress upon the health, safety and wellbeing of a rural community, resulting from a lack of early and comprehensive bushfire control.

Regional overview

a) Circular Head: Smithton is the administrative town for the municipality of Circular Head, whose total population is just under 8000 at the 2006 Census. The North West area has the highest avoidable mortality rates for heart disease, cardiovascular disease and lung cancer in the state (Tasmania Medicare Local, 2012). The region is an idyllic rural area with the enviable claim of receiving the freshest air and rain in the world (Environment Protection Authority Tasmania, 2013). Originally the landscape was covered in dense rainforest (Pink & Ebdon, 1988), much of this was cleared by the post war settlers. It boasts a phenomenal agricultural industry on the basis of this hard work and its natural assets – seafood, beef, dairy, crops, honey and even, of course, fresh water - all bolstered by a brand which embodies the best of Tasmania's clean image (Nelson, 2008). Roughly peripheral to the agricultural zones is a forestry industry rich in heritage and history – for 150 years the original, native and immense blackwood and mixed species rainforests have given way to a labyrinthine network of roads to eucalypt plantations and burn regenerated native forest regrowth. On their mostly southern and eastern aspects, the remaining native forests blend into heathland and buttongrass moorlands, the abode of some of the last seen, and last shot, Thylacines (Campbell, 2015). Scattered here and there are the fading marks of bygone mining booms. Some big rivers wind their way through this varied landscape – the Frankland, the Arthur, the Duck, the Montagu being the main watercourses.

b) The Western Tasmanian Aboriginal Cultural Landscape and the Tarkine: South of the Arthur River, the Arthur-Pieman Conservation Area, the Tarkine wilderness encompasses the Norfolk Range, roughly parallel to a rugged, spectacular coastline. The biodiversity of this region is immense, and currently a refuge for over 60 rare,

3 threatened and endangered species of flora and fauna, with further research continuing to document additions to threatened ecological communities (Anderson, 2016). The geodiversity matches it with globally rare karst formations (Wikipedia, 2015). Shack nodes dot the coastline – the latest installments to a land which has nurtured and inspired people for well over 40000 years. Known now as the Western Tasmania Aboriginal Cultural Landscape (Australian Heritage Council, 2013) - memories, middens, hut depressions, seal hides, petroglyphs (Sims, 2013) - relics of past inhabitants’ resilient culture. It was here the last free Aboriginal family was coerced into captivity (Clements, 2014, p185). To the east is an ancient, tenuous link with Gondwanaland – an 800 thousand year old myrtle rainforest corridor (936 ABC, 2008) which is still relatively intact and being Australia's largest, and the worlds' second largest temperate rainforest (Parks and Wildlife Service, 2001), is an extraordinarily valuable landscape in having such unique and diverse natural values.

Fire behavior observations

Serial examination of the TFS website Alert Maps and linked details (Tasmanian Fire Service, 2016), Sentinel Hotspot screenshots and original Land Tasmania Emergency Services GIS maps demonstrate what Ms Fox was alluding to. The combination of an extraordinary dry January, historically dry soil dryness index (SDI), very warm weather, wind forecast and dry lightning firespots held a predictable outcome in the absence of intervention. The pattern of fire spread posed no surprises as the satellite images display a fire trajectory roughly along forestry operations, adjacent heath and buttongrass native "fire adapted" vegetation, and adjacent Eucalyptus forest, and then into "fire-sensitive" mixed species rainforest. The strength of the winds and the unseasonal dryness caused the fire front to cross otherwise natural fire barriers of creeks and rivers, as well as roads and previously completed planned burnoff areas. This pattern of burn via anthropogenically disturbed landscapes has already been observed in Victoria (Taylor, Lindenmayer, & McCarthy, 2014).

4 The State fire fighting resources were understandably going to be stretched with around 80 fires eventually burning across the state. However, on the 25th of January, a press release from the Office of the Premier and Cabinet reassured the public that "The TFS confirmed to Cabinet they have access to the resources they require, which includes the 100 interstate firefighters we currently have on the ground" (Hidding, 2016). Of local concern at this stage, were three major fires: the northernmost affected forestry operations southwest to the locale of Mawbanna. South to this, another large burn was affecting an area known as "Dempster Plains" in the Tarkine - a mix of native buttongrass and heath scrub with creeks and apiary/forestry operations. West to these, the other large burn started on the southern side of Wuthering Heights Road, in heathlands and quickly spread to nearby forestry operations, jumping the Frankland and Arthur Rivers to its north. At some stage on the 25th of January, the TFS website confirmed rumors on the ground that the Dempster Plains fire had joined the Mawbanna fire – crossing both the Rapid River and Arthur River in its path, including an area of fuel reduction burn off near the Tayatea bridge, in wildfire situations, this is certainly described (Kirkpatrick, 2013). Over the next 3 days, Circular Head experienced an escalation in the wildfire threats to life and property, due to strong easterly winds driving a fire perimeter which had an estimated distance over 650km (ABC News, 2016). Until this emergency, few resources had been dedicated to this region according to the TFS website (heavy, medium and light tankers, personnel carrier to Mawbanna on the 23rd; two light tankers to a 100ha Forestry Plantation burn on Rebecca Road south of the larger Wuthering Heights Road fire on the 24th January), however it was noted this website carried inaccuracies in reporting allocated resources, and local rural fire fighting were undoubtedly on the ground (pers.comm).

On the 25th January, the residents of Balfour and Arthur River were instructed to begin evacuation. Some days earlier, residents of Trowutta, Lialea, Nabageena, Alcomie had also received letters advising of conditions possibly escalating to evacuation advice. To date, no evacuation has been necessary for them, apart from those suffering respiratory effects from several days of dense smoke pollution. At this stage, firefighting

5 forces began to flood into the region. The joined forces of the Mawbanna and Dempster fires had created a western fire front roughly 65km long. The critical efforts were to secure a firebreak east of Trowutta. The risk to the agricultural areas drew in additional resources of 4 light tankers and a medium tanker on the 26th January.

The 27th of January, a Wednesday, was forecast to be dangerous conditions – high heat, low humidity and strong easterly winds gusting up to 70kph, putting properties, and lives, at risk from these once remote fires.

The Wuthering Heights fire had travelled roughly 9km west to the coast. According to the TFS website, 2 heavy tankers were noted to be attending the Wuthering Heights fire on the 26th January. By the 27th of January, 5 medium tankers, 4 light tankers, 3 heavy tankers and a personnel carrier had arrived at Arthur River. Despatched as well were 2 light tankers, 2 medium tankers, 1 heavy tanker, a medium rotary wing and another personnel carrier. Such an upgrade in resources suddenly indicated the expectation of dire conditions. The media had now turned up to document the anticipated crisis. Despite all of this resource, and failing communication lines, those committed to defend the shacks along that coast soon posted dramatic footage (Wells, 2016) of fireballs engulfing the shack community, forcing the residents and firefighters to the beach to save their lives (Wahlquist, 2016). Against all odds, the shacks remained standing, albeit with some damage. Other parts of the coast also reported similar desperate conditions, thankfully the residents were quite sensible and no lives were lost (Force, 2016). Road/track access to the affected areas south of Arthur River became obstructed as the Nelson Bay River wooden bridge was burnt and decommissioned. Rapid earthworks were necessary to make the river crossing accessible to 4WD vehicles but heavy vehicles required a wait until a new Bailey bridge was installed by the 5th February (Hidding, Bailey bridge installed at Nelson Bay Bridge, 2016). Plans were made locally to enable evacuation of coastal residents by boat if necessary (ABC News, 2016). The TFS website burn maps indicate that despite this massive injection of resources, the Wuthering Heights Rd fire spread quickly in all directions, from 1600ha on the 26th January to 19649ha by the 4th February. Further south, a large farm was also under

6 threat, losing stands of plantation asset and working hard to preserve their beef herd (Force, Fires rage on, community prepares, 2016). Further south to them, extremely isolated shack owners also made preparations to defend their property. For those very remote shack owners south of Temma farm, additional concern was of the extension from the Dempster Plains fire which had by then crossed the Norfolk range and was burning towards the coast. With suitable conditions, both the Wuthering Heights and Dempster fires could possibly coalesce, despite a slight reprieve with light rain (Blackwood, 2016). Additional, more up to date information from the Sentinel hotspot website (Geoscience Australia, 2016) provided this data, aiding the understanding and planning for worst case scenario situations amongst locals. By the 1st February, two large rotary water bombers were also noted to be involved (pers.comm).

Into February, there were further dry conditions and light winds which caused flare ups along the burn perimeters and within the burnt areas. Significant extension of the burned areas on the Mawbanna fire northeast front occurred on the 11th -12th of February. At this stage, 3 Large Air Tankers were deployed from Melbourne to aid in reinforcing containment lines (Ruddick, 2016). Despite this, evacuation was advised for a property nearby (pers.comm). Given the length of time local and interstate/NZ crews were required to maintain vigilance and frontline activity (The Mercury, 2016), it became necessary to put all crews on rotation as inclement weather conditions continued to hamper containment efforts (ABC News, 2016). Both the Mawbanna and Wuthering Heights fires remained active, with a cool change bringing the usual southwesterly winds and clearing the district of smoke, but causing an eastward extension of the Mawbanna fireline. This also blew smoke into the eastern and southern parts of the state, triggering Public Health warnings for the Central and North Coasts (Billings, 2016), as well as Hobart from other wilderness fires in the southwest (Gallasch, 2016). The continuing fire activity now posing health risks to greater populations may well have been one of the factors contributing to a decision to amass the “biggest mobilization of interstate resources ever seen” (Langenberg, 2016), again despite earlier assurances

7 from the Premier that the fire service had “responded appropriately and responsibly” (Hodgman, 2016).

Fire Behavior Summary

At its greatest extent, the burnt area in the Northwest/Tarkine region exceeded 84000 hectares. When original fire locations are examined, it appears that only 4 original fires caused this damage (looking at a screenshot taken on 17th January 2016 of the TFS alerts map). These were fires originating in the dry buttongrass/heathland (Wuthering Heights fire and the Dempster Plains fire) or forestry operations – Mawbanna fire and Rebecca Rd Plantation fire (was contained until the Wuthering Heights fire spread over it). To contrast, over 10 fires occurred in the native rainforested areas. These fires did not burn more than a few hectares apiece, nor did they pose direct threat to nearby population centers due to self- containment. From this it is obvious of the fire retardant effect of rainforest, which apparently self-extinguished, even in unseasonally dry conditions. The contrast is seen in the massive intervention required to protect lives and property adjacent to forestry operations containing highly flammable eucalypt species.

Part 1: Wilderness bushfire impacts upon Rural Public Health and Rural Economies

a) Cost of direct firefighting: The monetary cost of such an emergency response on a large scale must be astronomical – personnel carriers, bulldozers, rotary aircraft and water tankers and their skilled operators, as well as large numbers of professional fire fighters and interstate fire fighters on the ground. The cost of an early, aerial intervention versus the cost of the massive late response needs evaluation, in the light of this, and all the issues listed below. b) Ongoing costs expected following the firefighting: The Worker's Compensation costs in extricating, transporting and treating injured

8 firefighters is also an expected cost. Apart from the acute injuries, there is evidence that some people will eventually die from effects of smoke inhalation (emphysema, fibrotic lung disease, cancer) sustained during their time in duty (Simpson & Cannon, 2013). The prolonged duration due to lack of early containment increases these risks and costs. c) Regional Primary Industry losses costs: The losses of Forestry asset must be massive – in disruption to contractor work time, plantations, current harvests, scheduled logging coupes and possibly infrastructure. The honey industry is reporting a week's worth of income lost (Sampson, 2016). Businesses contributing to the tourism industry would have lost revenue as tours were cancelled or tourists changed their travel plans to the area. Additionally, those services and business benefiting from the influx of tourists at this high point of the season also missed out on revenue due to prolonged bushfire effects. d) Cost to employers and employees: Employers whose employees are volunteer firefighters have nobly footed the deficit to their businesses attributed to the temporary reduction in their staff. It is important to note that a massive component of the fire fighting directly, and direct support is made up of volunteers (Turner, 2016) – essentially free labor, capitalizing on people’s genuine care and concern with often selfless service. This gentle aspect and people’s goodwill is so easily taken advantage of in order to save costs and deserves proper scrutiny in regards to risk of abusing such qualities. e) Public Health risks: Bushfire smoke is toxic (Cassidy, 2014). It is known there is increases in mortality in people suffering cardiorespiratory chronic disease during bushfire periods (Dennekamp & Johnston, 2013). People with respiratory illness have unsurprisingly reported an exacerbation of their disease. Those suffering cardiovascular problems similarly reporting difficulty, both increasing demand upon a normally pressured rural medical service already under workforce strain. The frail aged, many of whom maintain some quality of life by pottering in the garden, had been forced indoors in otherwise fine weather. Healthy people risk disease

9 developing when exposed over time to bushfire smoke (Cassidy, 2014). All of these amount to an increased burden on the health system, and increased costs to the taxpayer and patients directly. It was reported that some of the more ill people moved out of the region during this period (pers.comm). f) Public Health Advice shortcomings: The directives from the Public Health office to stay inside with windows and doors closed in order to reduce the exposure to smoke is unrealistic when the threat carries on for over a month. People still have to go to work, go to school, go grocery shopping etc. Even with all windows and doors locked, there were instances where home smoke alarms would still be triggered despite these measures. g) Mental Health risks: People who were fighting fires may also be at risk of psychological trauma (Gallagher, 2016), in addition to the physical ocular and respiratory effects. Relatives of those who are in the frontline suffered considerable stress which has been reportedly worsened by the lack of timely information, communications failures and the difficulty in obtaining any sort of official report. They were thankful for the ABC radio updates stating this was the most up to date resource available (pers.com). Reported stress due to lack of relevant, reliable and timely information is almost unanimous amongst the community. h) Health risks to livestock, domestic animals: The beef and dairy cattle farmers of Trowutta and nearby locales had to consider how to evacuate or otherwise protect their livestock as well as their families, creating immense stress and anxiety (Force, On the family front, 2016). Indeed, the livestock can suffer physical effects from smoke pollution (Jenner, 2007). Farmers reported stock coughing up carbonaceous phlegm, not eating the ash coated grass, and a reduction in milk output (pers.comm). i) Ongoing risk due to poor forecast: The rain forecast (Bureau of Meteorology, 2016), predicted insufficient rainfall of the magnitude to quench these fires, for the remainder of February, and well into March/April, indicating that bushfire smoke pollution issues, active fire fighting and field management must continue for some weeks. The

10 possibility of further dry lightning strikes was not discounted. During this time, there is always the risk of fire front flare and another escalation of threat to lives, property and health, and an additional burden of stress from being on heightened alert for the region.

Addressing future Public Health risks from Wilderness and remote bushfire

It is now becoming more apparent that Tasmania being a small landmass, the proximity of wilderness and populations means the health and well being of both are indeed intertwined (The Mercury, 2016). In Public Health, as is the rule of all good health care, prevention is better than cure. The case of the wilderness fires in this region provides a stark example where public biopsychosocial, and economic health is directly influenced by a lack of rapid response resources to remote wilderness bushfires. The case can be made that these outcomes were in some manner predictable from the outset – indeed the comment by the Incident controller was in no way alarmist. The precedents are well known from the 2013 Tasmanian Bushfires Inquiry that "Each fire is potentially a major or significant fire if not properly dealt with or where weather conditions compromise the ability to effectively suppress them". Locals reported concerns from the outset, reflecting the local understanding of the wilderness conditions, the forecast and weather patterns. Again, early intervention is a recommendation (Recommendation 22, 2013 TBI) from previous Tasmanian experience (Lefroy & Campbell, 2016). Perhaps a helpful idea would be to include not just local emergency services in planning a response, but also a list which includes local bushwalking groups, conservation and Landcare groups could be contacted to assist in helping to understand the unique risks a particular area will face, and prediction of the possible outcomes (Recommendation 27 2014 TBI). It is clear in retrospect that the resources available to on the ground, local Fire Services, Parks and Wildlife, and Forestry firefighting personnel is woefully inadequate for the nature of remote fire risk emergency response. It is now accepted that highly increased bushfire risk is an expected outcome of global warming and

11 requires active mitigation (Hughes & Fenwick, 2015). The risk posed by both remote plantations and regeneration-burn forestry regrowth resource, which are inherently highly flammable species, to population areas needs robust discussion into future risk mitigation if this industry is to continue current land management practices. This event in Northwest Tasmania concurs with evidence from the mainland of the wildfire risk associated with forestry operations and the clearing of native, more fire-retardant, rainforest vegetation (Lindenmayer, Blair, McBurney, & Banks, 2015).

Part 2: Wilderness bushfire and impacts upon Tarkine biodiversity, threatened species and environments of global significance.

WHA values and the Tarkine

The Tarkine is an increasingly well known region of remote and wilderness landscapes attracting an increasing number of visitors as its natural values become more popularized. The region also contains a huge variety of ecosystems from offshore rocky outcrops into dense mountainous rainforest, making it uniquely a fairly unfragmented, complete bioregion. There are over 60 endangered, threatened and rare species, along with several species of flora and fauna endemic to Tasmania (Tarkine National Coalition, n.d.) who are at risk of population collapse from bushfires causing mortality and also of habitat fragmentation. There have been a few comprehensive surveys in this region, however the gaps in knowledge are vast and the area requires much more scientific enquiry in order to foster a reasonable understanding of the natural values. It is known that the potential for new species discovery is very high (Parks and Wildlife Service, 2001). It also seems fairly easy to identify and document range extensions given the paucity of information on the Tarkine. The region contains one National Park – the Savage River National Park, and one National Heritage listed site – the Western Tasmanian Aboriginal Cultural Landscape. The

12 remainder of the region is classified as the Arthur Pieman Conservation area, Future Potential Production Forest, the Savage River Nature Reserve and the Donaldson Nature Recreation Area. The combination of globally significant anthropological relics, endemic species, Gondwanan relict rainforest, aesthetics and endangered, threatened and rare species refuge indicate it is a region worthy of special management to protect these features. Whilst the area is not listed as a World Heritage Area, there are ongoing campaigns with the purpose to have the Tarkine listed as a National Park and a World Heritage area due to these reasons. There has been much well-deserved awareness-raising and discussion around the future impact upon the World Heritage stands of alpine Pencil Pines and other extremely fire sensitive endemic and rare Gondwanan vegetation, however the risk to the other Gondwanan relict vegetation, the Tarkine old growth myrtle corridor has had little attention despite this event heralding a serious future risk to this globally important natural wonder.

Natural History

Much of the Tarkine landscape affected by the recent fire is already ‘fire adapted” in that the evidence points to millennia of Aboriginal land management which regularly burned the scrub in order to create pathways through the forest, to assist in hunting, and to provide seasonal vegetables (ie young bracken shoots) (McFarlane, 2008). There is a lot of buttongrass, possibly one of the most flammable species in the world (Driessen, 2006). The biodiversity of these ecosystems is now adapted to regular, controlled burning over small areas at a time. This allowed for seed banks to persist, and for animal cover to assist in maintaining the fauna populations (Bird, Bird, Codding, Parker, & Jones, 2008).

The landscape, however, which is most celebrated by visitors, is the rainforest. The Tarkine contains Australia’s largest continual tract of cool temperate rainforest, uninspiringly named the “Savage River Pipeline Corridor”. Satellite areas of similar forest remain along the major rivers, the original forest long gone when it was cleared for farmland during European occupation from 1826, or succumbed to increased burning to clear land after that time (Pink & Ebdon, 1988).

13 Impacts of 2016 bushfires

As is now well documented, the area experienced unseasonly warm temperatures, historically low rainfall, and unprecedented soil dryness index – all features of climate change, when several dry lightning strikes hit the area on January the 13th. This caused a fairly rapid expansion of the fires from the ignition points. Very quickly, large areas of land were burnt possibly posing unusual risk for terrestrial and arboreal fauna. The true mortality is impossible to assess for most species. Data will emerge for the Tasmanian Devil and quolls given there has been currently trapping in some of the fire effected areas. For other species, this author has not seen much evidence (scats, prints or charred remains) as the fires were possibly hot enough to affect near complete cremation of unfortunate fauna, as was seen on one set of wallaby remains near Temma.

a) Fire Adapted vegetation communities: Areas of fire adapted vegetation were mostly noted to quickly show signs of regeneration – buttongrass within 10 days of the fire burning it. However, as some of these areas had previously been subjected to fuel reduction burning, the author has noted poor regrowth in some areas, and even areas where the peat soil is burned right down to sandy substrate or gravel. This is concerning for increasing erosion in these places, and possibly failure for the biodiversity to return. This author has even noted some areas in the Mt Holloway/Mt Edith planned fuel reduction burn in May 2015 which failed to quickly regenerate and has demonstrated sluggish return of vegetation, possibly indicating a too hot a burn for the area concerned. These areas were again burned during the recent fires. Future risk here is of possible desertification and biodiversity loss. The inherent flammability of these landscapes poses significant risks to those adjacent systems which are sensitive to fire, and have in the past seemingly been a managed landscape by the Aboriginal inhabitants (McFarlane, 2008). b) Rainforest: Areas of rainforest posed the greatest concern during the recent fires. From the TFS website, there were no resources allocated to extinguish these small, very remote fires, four were located west of Sumac Road, another ten within the Savage River

14 Pipieline Corridor. Presumably this is due to simply not having the luxury of resources to undertake this (as on-ground teams would be inappropriate, and aerial response prohibitively expensive), as well as a likely underestimation of the natural values of the area, and appreciation of the impact a fire will have for years after ignition on the peat soils and old growth mortality. It is well known that rainforest species do regenerate after fire, but unlikely to be fully restored for over one hundred years. Whilst there is clear evidence from the mapping that rainforest did indeed seem to stem the fire front, this did cause these margins of rainforest to be killed and therefore unlikely to regenerate. What is expected is rainforest species will regenerate to a degree, however be more flammable and further increase the fire incursion risk in the immediate future (Barker, 1991). Where lightning strikes caused burns in deep rainforest – the mapping indicates a very small total area of burnt area. However, as this author has not yet had the opportunity to investigate these areas on foot, the degree of peat burning (which is known to continue for years, eventually killing more old growth trees than initially lost in the original fire) is unknown. From the TFS maps, about 10 fires were located in this rainforest tract, each of these burning approximately 1-2 hectares. This insult to the rainforest is a known risk of Phytophthora cinnamomi fungus infection which can further fragment the forest cover (Parks and Wildlife Service, 2001). Breaks in the canopy are a risk for Myrtle Wilt disease to gain hold deep within one of the worlds most significant rainforests, and in itself poses again higher fire damage risk by killing old trees, contributing to the fuel load (Read & Brown, 1996). Additionally, the space will encourage more flammable regrowth, further weakening the inherent fire retardant quality of old rainforest (Barker, 1991). Given the future forecast of dry conditions due to global warming, and increased frequency of extreme weather events such as dry lightning strikes, this globally significant rainforest faces a risk of accelerated fragmentation unless planning is undertaken to place priority on the surveillance and early intervention in extinguishing these very remote and isolated fires. There has been repeated recommendation that “All small fires should be suppressed

15 in burnt and unburnt rainforest. This is now possible with helicopters and highly trained crews” (Barker, 1991; Parks and Wildlife Service, 2001). Additionally, there is now further impetus to study this region and consolidate and clarify its global heritage significance as a priority for future fire response, before further irreparable damage occurs. c) Fauna impacts: fauna able to escape the flames and avoid suffocation from smoke would undoubtedly have suffered from the effects of smoke inhalation and mucous membrane irritation identical to that of livestock and people. It is known that marsupials with young will remove dependent young from the pouch in order that the mother may escape more readily, leaving the young to invariably perish from the fire itself or of starvation or predation later. Firefighters reported to a local Animal Rescue volunteer that they saw many small animals who would approach them with little fear – clearly these were surviving deserted marsupial young. Water sources would’ve been rendered toxic creating hydration stress for animals unable to find fresh water in fire affected areas. As the area of burnt land is large, surviving browsing fauna would experience difficulty in finding food and hence risk malnutrition or starvation. Fauna surviving the fires, but being territorial might also suffer injury due to burns and ongoing ash inhalation causing a more lingering death. Carnivores surviving have demonstrated some increases in populations following fires as they take advantage of the casualties. Reptiles and amphibians unable to shelter in cool, wet places would invariably perish. Arboreal fauna sheltering in tree hollows, and nesting or young birds similarly would face a poor outcome in the burnt areas. Pressure on endangered, threatened and rare fauna was increased due to a lack of fire containment at an early stage. d) Threatened Species: clearly bushfire poses a risk to listed Threatened Species in causing population reductions and habitat fragmentations. This is one of the biodiversity stressors associated with global warming. Without future bushfire mitigation measures and early intervention, Tasmania risks more extinctions of its endemic species.

16 Conclusion

As the Tarkine wilderness is neither National Park or World Heritage Area, it flies under the radar in priorities of natural values protection. Yet, there is already a sound knowledge base of its globally significant aspects, many of which are at risk from bushfires, and the flow on effects such as disease incursion and biodiversity loss which may herald ecosystem collapses. Much more research and surveys are required to understand the natural values of this region. Even fire adapted landscapes can suffer severe damage from wildfires, and these landscapes require careful thinking over how best to manage this in the future. A popular line of reasoning is to reinvestigate Aboriginal land management practices of coal ignited burning, or firestick “cool” burning of small parcels in a patchwork of a few acres at a time, as opposed to large scale aerial hot ignition methods. It is apparent to prevent future risk of ecosystem collapses, that early intervention protocols are developed and funded according to the importance that a globally significant landscape deserves despite its lack of current listing.

Additionally, there is now further precedent to consider remote wilderness fires as potentially directly threatening the short and long term biopsychosocial and economic health of adjacent communities who thrive and exist due to the ecosystem services, tourism and natural resources such wilderness provides. Preemptive land management to reduce mitigate the effects of unseasonal climate extremes and wildfire prevention will require further discussion, as this is a vastly complex topic in which each area will require its own assessment and unique management plan. Rapid management of extinguishing or containment and control of even small fires in areas of high risk requires urgent re-evaluation of current policy and implementing the recommendations made from the 2013 Tasmanian Bushfire Inquiry. In achieving such, and holding to a preventative strategy, the costs and risk of maintaining a healthy wilderness and therefore safe and healthy communities will be much more effective in the future where exacerbations of bushfire risk are to be anticipated as a result of climate change local effects.

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