Regional Differences and Women's Relative Success in Municipal Elections in Brazil
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No. 550 Campaign Advertising and Election Outcomes: Quasi-Natural Experiment Evidence from Gubernatorial Elections in Brazil
TEXTO PARA DISCUSSÃO No. 550 Campaign Advertising and Election Outcomes: Quasi-Natural Experiment Evidence from Gubernatorial Elections in Brazil Bernardo S. da Silveira João Manoel Pinho de Mello DEPARTAMENTO DE ECONOMIA www.econ.puc-rio.br Campaign Advertising and Election Outcomes: Quasi-Natural Experiment Evidence from Gubernatorial Elections in Brazil Bernardo S Da Silveira† and João M P De Mello‡ Abstract Despite the “minimal effects” conventional wisdom, the question of whether campaign advertising influence elections outcome remains open. This is paradoxical because in the absence of a causal link from advertising to candidate performance, it is difficult to rationalize the amounts spent on campaigns in general, and on TV advertising in particular. Most studies using US data, however, suffer from omitted variable bias and reverse causality problems caused by the decentralized market-based method of allocating campaign spending and TV advertising. In contrast with received literature, we explore a quasi-natural experiment produced by the Brazilian electoral legislation, and show that TV and radio advertising has a much larger impact on election outcomes than previously found by the literature. In Brazil, by law, campaign advertising is free of charge and allocated among candidates in a centralized manner. Gubernatorial elections work in a runoff system. While in the first round, candidates’ TV and radio time shares are determined by their coalitions’ share of seats in the national parliament, the two most voted candidates split equally TV time if a second round is necessary. Thus, differences in TV and radio advertising time between the first and second rounds are explored as a source of exogenous variation to evaluate the impact of TV advertising on election outcomes. -
Covid-19 and the Brazilian 2020 Municipal Elections
Covid-19 and the Brazilian 2020 Municipal Elections Case Study, 19 February 2021 Gabriela Tarouco © 2021 International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance International IDEA publications are independent of specific national or political interests. Views expressed in this publication do not necessarily represent the views of International IDEA, its Board or its Council members. The electronic version of this publication is available under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0) licence. You are free to copy, distribute and transmit the publication as well as to remix and adapt it, provided it is only for non-commercial purposes, that you appropriately attribute the publication, and that you distribute it under an identical licence. For more information visit the Creative Commons website: <http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/>. International IDEA Strömsborg SE–103 34 Stockholm Sweden Telephone: +46 8 698 37 00 Email: [email protected] Website: <https://www.idea.int> Editor: Andrew Robertson This case study is part of a collaborative project between the Electoral Management Network <http:// www.electoralmanagement.com> and International IDEA, edited by Toby S. James (University of East Anglia), Alistair Clark (Newcastle University) and Erik Asplund (International IDEA). Created with Booktype: <https://www.booktype.pro> International IDEA Contents 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................... -
Inglehart Mass Priorities and Democracy
Perspectives on Politics (forthcoming, March, 2010) 1 Changing Mass Priorities: The Link between Modernization and Democracy RONALD INGLEHART University of Michigan CHRISTIAN WELZEL Jacobs University Bremen Introduction. Rich countries are much likelier to be democracies than poor countries. Why this is true is debated fiercely. Simply reaching a given level of economic development could not itself produce democracy; it can do so only by bringing changes in how people act. Accordingly, Seymour Martin Lipset (1959) argued that development leads to democracy because it produces certain socio-cultural changes that shape human actions. The empirical data that would be needed to test this claim did not exist then, so his suggestion remained a passing comment.1 Today, large-N comparative surveys make the relevant data available for most of the world’s population, and there have been major advances in analytic techniques. But social scientists rarely put the two together, partly because of a persisting tendency to view mass attitudinal data as volatile and unreliable. In this piece we wish to redress this situation. We argue that certain modernization-linked mass attitudes are stable attributes of given societies that are being measured reliably by the large-N comparative survey projects, even in low-income countries, and that these attitudes seem to play important roles in social changes such as democratization. Our purpose here is not to demonstrate the impact of changing values on democracy so much as to make a point about the epistemology of survey data with important ramifications for the way we analyze democracy. Unlike dozens of articles we’ve published that nail down one hypothesis about one dependent variable, this piece analyzes data from almost 400 surveys to demonstrate that modernization-linked attitudes are stable attributes of given societies and are strongly linked with many important societal-level variables, ranging from civil society to democracy to gender equality. -
Redalyc.Electoral Governance in Brazil
Brazilian Political Science Review E-ISSN: 1981-3821 [email protected] Associação Brasileira de Ciência Política Brasil Marchetti, Vitor Electoral Governance in Brazil Brazilian Political Science Review, vol. 6, núm. 1, 2012, pp. 113-133 Associação Brasileira de Ciência Política São Paulo, Brasil Available in: http://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=394341999006 How to cite Complete issue Scientific Information System More information about this article Network of Scientific Journals from Latin America, the Caribbean, Spain and Portugal Journal's homepage in redalyc.org Non-profit academic project, developed under the open access initiative brazilianpoliticalsciencereview ARTICLE Electoral Governance in Brazil * Vitor Marchetti Federal University of the ABC (UFABC), Brazil Electoral governance has increasingly more frequently been the object of study of the comparative politics literature. This article examines the electoral governance institutional model adopted in Brazil and its consequences for political/electoral competition. It is argued herein that Brazil’s Electoral Justice System, motivated by the institutional design, has ended up becoming one of the main actors of the country’s recent democratic consolidation, being decisive not only with regard to rule adjudication and application, but also to rulemaking. With the purpose of assessing this governance model in action, three important recent rulings by Brazil’s Electoral Justice System are analysed here: verticalization of the coalitions, reduction in the number of councillors, and party loyalty. Keywords: Brazil; Electoral governance; Electoral Justice System; Judiciary branch; Higher Electoral Court; Judicialization of politics. Introduction The rising role of the Brazilian Electoral Justice System in the consolidation of Brazil’s democratic regime has focused widespread attention on an institution that hitherto had been very little known and debated. -
Developing Countries in World Politics
IR 344: Developing Countries in World Politics Fall 2010 WPH B28 School of International Relations University of Southern California Tuesday and Thursday, 9:30-10:50AM Instructor: Dr. Eric Blanchard SOS 268 [email protected] (213) 740-2554 Office Hours: Wednesday 5-6PM, Thursday 11AM-1PM, and by appointment I. Course Description, Objectives and Requirements: “Developing Countries in World Politics” is a course that blends history and theory to help students (as future policymakers, scholars or informed citizens) better understand the politics of the developing world and the role of the United States in these politics. In other words, students will become familiar with the impact of U.S. involvement in the developing world, and the role this involvement played in constituting the American ascendency. We will engage in a historically grounded survey of the politics of developing countries in Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Middle East, developing an understanding of the particular issues faced in these countries such as underdevelopment, poverty, debt, religious and ethnic conflict, and climate change. In addition, we will pay close attention to the successes and failures of attempts on the part of Third World to organize outside of the Cold War system dominated by the most powerful states. Along the way, we will also consider the strengths and weaknesses of theories of International Relations, political science and sociology for understanding the developing world or global “South” and its relations with the advanced -
Pippa Norris and Ronald Inglehart: Cultural Backlash: Trump, Brexit, and Authoritarian Populism
Roman Chytilek Pippa Norris and Ronald Inglehart: Cultural Backlash: Trump, Brexit, and Authoritarian Populism Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 2019. 540 pp. ISBN 978-1108444422 The eminent American social scientist Ronald Inglehart and the important American political scientist Pippa Norris, who specialises in conjunctural issues and broadly conceived comparative studies, have joined forces in Cultural Backlash to explain the current rise of “authoritarian populists” in many parts of the world. What do Donald Trump, Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán, Rodrigo Duterte and Jair Bolsonaro have in common? (The last, who only scored his major victory this year, when the book manuscript was already in press, is given less attention.) At the core of their political message is populism, defined by the authors in conformity with the emerging theoretical consensus as a style of politics built on criticism of a rotten establishment and, contrasted with it, emphasis on the primacy, purity and sovereignty of the people, seeing both (the people and the elite) as homogeneous. Combined with authoritarianism – a political discourse that emphasises the necessity of defending oneself against various external threats, and hence stressing security, group cohesion and conformity, as well as the role of a strong leader as the representative of the interests of the masses – populism is particularly dangerous to the survival of democracy. While populism questions the fundamental institutions of democracy (for example, the principle of representation), authoritarianism fights democratic values, such as respect for the rights of minorities, working to achieve consensus, or at least a compromise, the separation of the private from the political, and respect for the rules of the political game. -
Impact of Electronic Voting Machines on Blank Votes and Null Votes in Brazilian Elections in 1998*
Impact of Electronic Voting Machines on Blank Votes and Null Votes in Brazilian Elections in 1998* Jairo Nicolau Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Electronic voting machines were used for the first time in general elections in Brazil in 1998; in that year, some cities used this new voting method, while others continued to vote using paper ballots. Few studies have demonstrated that the rate of invalid votes for federal deputy was significantly lower in cities that used electronic voting machines. This article analyzes the frequency of null votes and blank votes for four posts—federal deputy, state deputy, the president and governor. Based on a comparison of the results from the 1998 elections with the results from previous elections (1994), the article demonstrates that electronic voting machines reduced the percentage of blank votes for federal deputy, state deputies, the president and governor. Meanwhile, null votes reduced the competition for the posts of federal deputy and state deputy; however, it increased the competition for posts with greater visibility in the Brazilian political system: the governor and president. Keywords: voting machine; invalid votes; Brazilian elections. * http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1981-38212015000300017 For replication, see bpsr.org.br/files/archives/Dataset_Nicolau.html. 3 (2015) 9 (3) 3 – 20 Impact of Electronic Voting Machines on Blank Votes and Null Votes in Brazilian Elections in 1998 ntil the mid-1990s, Brazilians voted the way most of the world still U continues to vote. Voters arrived at their polling stations, received an official printed ballot, went into a voting booth, wrote the names (or numbers) of their chosen candidates, and deposited their ballot into a ballot box. -
Democratizing Democracy: Feminist Perspectives
Democratizing Democracy: Feminist Perspectives ANDREA CORNWALL and ANNE MARIE GOETZ Increasing numbers of women have gained entry into the arena of representative politics in recent times. Yet the extent to which shifts in the sex ratio within formal democratic spaces translates into political influence, and into gains in policies that redress gendered inequities and inequalities remains uncertain. At the same time, a plethora of new democratic spaces have been created – whether through the promotion of ‘civil society organizations’ or the insti- tutionalization of participatory governance mechanisms – which hold the prospect of democra- tizing other political spaces beyond those of formal politics. This study examines factors that constrain and enable women’s political effectiveness in these different democratic arenas. We suggest that ‘engendering democracy’ by adding women or multiplying democratic spaces is necessary but not sufficient to address historically and culturally embedded forms of disadvantage that have been the focus for feminist politics. We suggest that an important, but neglected, determinant of political effectiveness is women’s political apprenticeship – their experiences in political parties, civil society associations and the informal arenas in which political skills are learned and constituencies built. Enhancing the democratizing poten- tial of women’s political participation calls, we argue, for democratizing democracy itself: building new pathways into politics, fostering political learning and creating new forms of articulation across and beyond existing democratic spaces. Key words: affirmative action; community organizations; political participation; NGOs Introduction As the numbers of women in politics increase in many parts of the world, it has become more evident than ever that the strategy of getting female bodies into formal political spaces is only part of what it takes to ‘engender’ democracy. -
Choice Sets, Gender, and Candidate Choice in Brazil
Electoral Studies 39 (2015) 230e242 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Electoral Studies journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/electstud Choice sets, gender, and candidate choice in Brazil * Rosario Aguilar a, Saul Cunow b, Scott Desposato b, c, a Centro de Investigacion y Docencia Economicas, Carretera Mexico-Toluca 3655 Col. Lomas de Santa Fe, Delegacion Alvaro Obregon, C.P. 01210 Mexico, D.F., Mexico b Department of Political Science, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive MC 0521, La Jolla, CA 92093-0521, USA c Institut für Politikwissenschaft, Universitat€ Zürich, Affolternstrasse 56, 8050 Zürich, Switzerland article info abstract Article history: Is there a gender gap in Latin American attitudes toward women politicians? While Received 24 March 2015 scholars of Latin America have examined the role of institutions and quotas in women's Accepted 25 March 2015 electoral success, less attention has been paid to voters' attitudes about women leaders. In Available online 11 April 2015 this paper, we report on two survey experiments and an observational study in Brazil looking at the effect of candidate gender on vote choice. We asked subjects to chose a Keywords: candidate from a hypothetical ballot while randomly varying candidates' gender. We find a Experiments strong and consistent 5e7 percentage point pro-female bias. Our experiments illustrate a Elections Women's representation novel approach to testing candidate choice models. © Candidate gender 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Latin America Brazil 1. Introduction surpassed many developed countries, including the United States. Recent presidential elections suggest that a trans- However, there remain many troubling signs of formation in gender politics is taking place in Latin Amer- inequality. -
Competence Versus Priorities: Negative Electoral Responses to Education Quality in Brazil
Competence versus Priorities: Negative Electoral Responses to Education Quality in Brazil Taylor Boas F. Daniel Hidalgo Guillermo Toral Boston University MIT MIT [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] August 21, 2020 Forthcoming, Journal of Politics Abstract Do voters reward politicians for the quality of public services? We address this question by study- ing voters’ responses to signals of municipal school quality in Brazil, a setting particularly fa- vorable to electoral accountability. Findings from a regression discontinuity design and a field experiment are strikingly consistent. Contrary to expectations, signals of school quality decrease electoral support for the local incumbent. However, we find the expected effect among citizens for whom school quality should be most salient—parents with children in municipal schools. Using an online survey experiment, we argue that voters who do not value education interpret school quality as an indicator of municipal policy priorities and perceive trade-offs with other services. Voters may hold politicians accountable not only for their competence but also for their represen- tation of potentially conflicting interests—a fact that complicates the simple logic behind many accountability interventions. Keywords: Information; Elections; Accountability; Education Supplementary material for this article is available in the appendix in the online edition. Replica- tion files are available in the JOP Data Archive on Dataverse (http://thedata.harvard.edu/dvn/dv/jop). Approval for the field experiment was obtained from the Institutional Review Boards of Boston University (protocol 4094X), MIT (protocol 1604551604), and the Universidade Federal de Per- nambuco (número de parecer 1571592). Approval for the online survey experiment was obtained from the institutional review boards of Boston University (protocol 4748X) and MIT (protocol 1712167362). -
Department of Political Science Comparative Politics Preliminary Examination Reading List
Department of Political Science Comparative Politics Preliminary Examination Reading List 2003-5/6 (Note changes in the exam format/rules as well as in the reading list.) The preliminary examination in comparative politics is based on a shared reading list. Faculty members from the sub-field have cooperated to create this list, which will remain without significant change until at least 2006. A few works pertain to more than one topic area and thus appear on the reading list in more than one place. It is helpful to think of the reading list both as identifying the most important topic areas in comparative politics and as providing a very basic “toolbox,” or repertoire, of important intellectual strategies for explaining patterns of behavior, attitudes, events, or institutions. These include both theoretical and empirical approaches. This list builds on syllabi in PS 641 and other departmental courses in the sub-field, although you may not have encountered everything in a class. It is wise to review the reading handouts from PS 641 and class notes from courses prior to taking the exam. It is also wise to defer the exam until you have taken an adequate sampling of the courses in the sub-field. We give few honors grades, but almost all students who have won honors over the past five years have taken 6-7 comparative politics courses. Very few students who pass the exam have taken fewer than 5 comparative courses. The Exam The exam includes both a written and an oral component. The written component, which takes the form of a 24-hour take-home test, counts for 65% of the grade. -
Digital Media and the 2010 National Elections in Brazil 4/28/2011 Jason
Digital media and the 2010 national elections in Brazil 4/28/2011 Jason Gilmore Philip N. Howard University of Washington Abstract Over the past decade, digital and mobile media have significantly changed the system of political communication in Brazil. An increasing number of Brazilian candidates have begun to use websites and social networking applications as an integral part of their overall campaign efforts. To explore how these "new" media tools are used at all levels of campaigns for national office, we built an original dataset of media use by political campaigns in the 2010 elections for the lower house of the Brazilian Congress. We investigate factors such as a candidate's use of web and social networking sites in conjunction with other traditional influences such as candidate gender, age, incumbency, party affiliation, coalition membership and campaign spending in order to get a robust understanding of the different roles that digital media tools are beginning to play in Brazilian elections. In this chapter we ask two questions. First, does digital media provide some competitive advantage to minor party candidates facing off against major party candidates with higher profile and more resources? Second, do challenger candidates get any electoral advantage against incumbents for using the internet, social media, or mobile media strategies in their campaigning? 1 Introduction Systems of political communication around the world have significantly evolved over the last decade. The introduction of digital media has given political parties worldwide new tools for logistics and new ways of reaching potential supporters. There is a large body of research on the impact of digital media on campaigns and elections in advanced democracies, but there have also been important changes to the practices of political campaigning in emerging democracies.