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Electronics Manufacturing Services Ready to Roar Electronics Manufacturing Services Consumer Electronics Pankaj Chhaochharia [email protected] 27 August 2018 +91 22 6164 8503 (Dir) Elara Securities (India) Private Limited Electronic Manufacturing Services Elara Securities (India) Private Limited India | Consumer Electronics 27 August 2018 Initiating Coverage Electronics Manufacturing Services Ready to Roar India accounts just 0.6% of USD 500bn Global EMS market Room for more: domestic EMS industry CAGR of 30% in FY16-21E 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 India’s EMS industry (market size: ~INR 150bn in FY16) is expected to 0.9 1.0 post a ~30% CAGR over FY16-21E, due to development of the consumer 0.7 0.8 electronics and appliances ecosystem in India (CEA, market size of ~INR 0.6 (%) 0.6 0.4 0.5 2,350bn in FY16), due to favorable government policy (correction in 0.3 0.3 0.4 inverted duty structure, “Make in India” initiative and M-SIPS scheme), 0.2 the country’s low-cost advantage over China (leading to a rise in 0.0 domestic manufacturing and creation of large exports opportunity) and FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 the rise in outsourcing strategy adopted by consumer brands. FY13 Ripe pickings: domestic CEA industry CAGR of 17% over FY16-21E Source: Dixon Technologies RHP, Elara Securities Research The CEA industry is expected to report a 17% CAGR over FY16-21E, India EMS market CAGR of ~30% in driven by low penetration level, rise in disposable income, increase in FY16-21 middle class, reduction in replacement cycle & easier credit availability. 569 600 Limited range: Oligopolistic competition exists on segment basis 500 428 400 Competitive intensity is low with Top 3 EMS companies command ~70% 325 300 250 192 market share in various product categories. Domestic EMS players are in 149 (INR bn) 200 116 sweet spot, as there is limited competition from Global EMS firms (except 76 93 100 in mobile phone) - against whom it would be difficult to gain market 0 share due to their global relationship with consumer brands. FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 India EMS industry = auto ancillary industry India EMS/ODM Global Markets Research India’s auto ancillary stocks posted a PAT CAGR of 18.6% over FY03-18, Source: Dixon Technologies RHP, Elara Securities Research due to increased localization levels, share of outsourcing and exports Oligopolistic competition in various opportunity. Robust financial performance led to a 30% market cap product segments CAGR, up 60x, during the same period. We believe that similar industry 100 tailwind exists for India EMS industry and may evolve in a similar fashion 97 80 over medium to long term basis. 60 71 72 Our picks: Dixon Technologies and Amber Enterprise 66 40 55 We believe Dixon Technologies and Amber Enterprise will be the 20 biggest beneficiaries of strong growth in the EMS industry. Dixon is a 0 market leader in outsourced manufacturing in washing machines, TV Lighting Washing LED TV Mobile RAC and the lighting segments. It would post an EPS CAGR of 35% over Machine phone Top 3 EMS player Market share FY18-21E, driven by 19% revenue CAGR and a ~55bp margin expansion (ex mobile) on high operating leverage and backward integration. We Note: RAC market share is of market leader as on FY17 and Washing Machine segment market share is of Top 2 player; initiate on Dixon with a Buy rating and a TP of INR 3,475 on 32x June Source Dixon Technologies RHP, Amber Enterprise RHP, FY20E EPS of INR 109 (at a 24% discount to Consumer Durable/electrical Elara Securities Research average 1 year forward PE multiple of 42x). Amber Enterprise is a market leader of outsourced manufacturing in room air conditioners. We expect a 39% EPS CAGR over FY18-21E, led by an 18% revenue CAGR (25% revenue CAGR including newly acquired companies) and a 65bp margin expansion by FY21E in existing business and lower interest expenses. We initiate on Amber with a Buy rating and a TP of INR 1,225 based on 25x June FY20E EPS of INR 49 (at a 30% discount to India AC consumer average 1 year forward PE multiple of 36x). Valuation matrix TP CMP* ROE (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) P/BV (x) MCAP Company Ticker Rating (INR bn) (INR) (INR) FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E Dixon Technologies Dixon IN Buy 29.2 3,475 2,510 22.0 25.5 20.5 15.1 36.7 25.1 7.3 5.7 Amber Enterprise AMBER IN Buy 29.5 1,225 931 10.6 13.8 14.4 10.6 29.6 20.7 3.0 2.7 Note: *pricing as on 23 August 2018; Source: Company, Elara Securities Estimate Pankaj Chhaochharia • [email protected] • +91 22 6164 8503 Elara Securities (India) Private Limited Electronics Manufacturing Services Table of Content Electronic Manufacturing Services Appetite for growth Executive summary…………………………………………………………………………………………………. 3 Will EMS Industry evolve like Auto Ancillary? …………………………………………………….. 5 Room for more…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 6 Regulatory support to spur investments………………………………………………………………. 9 Exports: play on labor arbitrage……………………………………………………………………………. 12 Imports substitution………………………………………………………………………………………………… 14 CEA industry: grow at 17% CAGR over FY16-21……………………………………………. 15 Flat panel display (FPD) TV……………………………………………………………………………. 17 Washing machine (WM) ……………………………………………………………………………….. 18 Lighting products…………………………………………………………………………………………… 20 Room air conditioner……………………………………………………………………………………… 22 Security system………………………………………………………………………………………………… 25 Mobile phone………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 26 Reverse logistics………………………………………………………………………………………………. 28 Rise in share of outsourcing…………………………………………………………………………………… 29 EMS competition in India………………………………………………………………………………………. 31 Risks………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 37 Company Section Dixon Technologies (DIXON IN; Buy; CMP INR 2,510; TP INR 3,475)………………. 39 End-to-end solutions provider ………………………………………………………………………………. 42 Is it a Motherson Sumi in the making? …………………………………………………………………. 47 Value creator……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 48 Key risks…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 51 Company snapshot………………………………………………………………………………………………… 52 Amber Enterprise (AMBER IN; Buy; CMP INR 931; TP INR 1,225) …………………… 71 One-stop shop…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 74 Is it another Gree in the making? …………………………………………………………………………. 84 Value creator………………………………………………………………………………………………….……….. 85 APPENDIX………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 93 2 Elara Securities (India) Private Limited Electronics Manufacturing Services Executive summary Amber Enterprise is a market leader in outsourced manufacturing of a low penetration product (room air Well placed to capture growth in nascent sector conditioner penetration in India is ~4% vs 30% globally) Dixon Technologies has a superior business model with with significant entry barriers and strong relationships Return on Operating Asset of 13.2% in FY18, primarily with most large AC consumer brands (~85% of ODM driven by high asset efficiency (gross fixed asset turnover business model and deals with eight out of 10 RAC of 15.3x and negative net working capital), large brands). addressable market opportunity (aggregate market size We expect both companies to deliver superior earnings of LED TV, Washing Machine and LED lighting is INR growth (Dixon 35% EPS CAGR over FY18-21E and Amber 607bn as on FY16); it is >5x compared to Amber 39% EPS CAGR over FY18-21E) on a long-term basis as Enterprise) and a history of successfully adding new the EMS industry is in the nascent stage and expected to products to its portfolio. The company has been able to grow at 30% CAGR over FY16-21 given development of manage its segment-wise earnings volatility by the consumer electronics and appliances ecosystem in diversifying into various product categories. India due to favorable government policy, India’s low- cost advantage over China and the rise in outsourcing strategy adopted by consumer brands. Exhibit 1: Brief snapshot Parameters Amber Dixon Overall Business model ~85% ODM ~22% ODM FPD TV, washing machine, LED lighting, mobile Product portfolio Room Air Conditioner phone, security system and reverse logistics Consumer Electronics Entry barriers High Low LED TV: INR 374bn Washing machine: INR 79 bn Addressable product market size (FY16) INR 119bn (FY17) Lighting: INR 154 bn Total: INR 607 bn LED TV: 60% Product penetration level 4% Washing machine: 10% LED lighting: shift from CFL LED TV: 55.2% EMS industry CAGR (FY16-21E) 25.1% Washing machine: 41.2% LED lighting: 43.9% LED TV: 50% Company market share in OEM/ODM 55% Washing machine: 43% LED lighting: 39% Financial parameters Gross fixed asset turnover (FY18) 3.5 15.3 Net working capital days (FY18) 34.7 -0.5 EBITDA margin (FY18) 8.6% 3.9% 0.8% EBITDA margin variability (FY13-18) 1.4% (High segment-wise volatility but low on consolidated level) ROOA (FY18) (based on average operating 10.1% 13.2% asset) ROE (FY18) (based on average shareholder 9.9% 23.8% equity) EPS CAGR (FY18-21E) 39.0 35.4 EBITDA CAGR (FY18-21E) 25.3 31.2 Valuation MILTGV 49.1% 57.7% Implied long-term growth rate in residual 8.8% 6.9% earning (beyond FY21E) FY19 P/E (x) 29.6 36.7 Source: Elara Securities Estimate Elara Securities (India) Private Limited 3 Electronics Manufacturing Services Exhibit 2: Relative valuation EBITDA margin ROE PAT growth (%) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) (%) (%) CMP Market cap Name Ticker FY19 FY20 FY19 FY20 FY19 FY20 FY19 FY20 FY19 FY20 (INR) (INR mn) Amber AMBER IN 932 29,310 58.9 43.3 7.8 8.1 10.6 13.8 29.6 20.7 14.4 10.6 Dixon DIXON IN 2,510 28,431 27.0 46.0 4.7 5.0 22.0 25.5
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