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On the Origin of Extraterrestrial Industrial Civilizations On the Origin of Extraterrestrial Industrial Civilizations Steven Suan Zhu June 23, 2018 Washington University in Saint Louis [email protected] Abstract The emergence of intelligence is likely a relatively recent phenomena throughout the cosmos. The total number of habitable extraterrestrial planets within the Milky Way ca- pable of supporting advanced, intelligent life within the next 500 Myr is <10,799. Almost all of which are earth-like orbiting around a single star with mass ranges from 0.628 to 1 solar mass. No exomoons are capable of supporting advanced life, and a negligible number of low mass binary systems (<0.628 solar mass) are habitable. The nearest extraterrestrial industrial civilization lies at least 88.7 million light years away, and possibly 111 million light years beyond. No extraterrestrial civilization arises before 232.74 Mya within the observable universe, and no extraterrestrial civilization arises before 270.95 Mya within the universe by co-moving distance. Despite great distances between the nearest civi- lizations and the low probability of emergence within our vicinity, given the sheer size of the universe, the total number of intelligent extraterrestrial civilizations likely approaches 3 122 1 6 1010 infinity or 4.4·107 · 3.621 · 10 · 10 if the universe is finitely bounded. Based on incentives for economic growth, all civilizations tend to expands near the speed of light and will eventually universally connect with each other via wormhole networks. Within such a network, the furtherst distances traversable from earth can be either infinite or 10122 3.621 · 106 · 1010 light years in radius if the universe is finitely bounded. arXiv:submit/2305141 [physics.pop-ph] 23 Jun 2018 Keywords: Principle of Mediocrity, Paradigm Hierarchy, Gaussian Distribution, Log-Normal Distribution, Uniform Distribution, Darwinian Biological Evolution, Biological Complexity, Complexity Equivalence, Complexity Factor Transformation, Law of Accelerating Return, Spe- cial Relativity, General Relativity, Hubble Constant, Relativistic Finance, Nash Equilibrium, Worm Holes, Alcubierre Drive, Phase Transition, GFK spectral class, Exoplanets, Exomoons 1 Contents 1 Introduction 5 1.1 New Understanding Sharpens the Fermi Paradox . .5 1.2 Assumptions in the Solution to the Fermi Paradox . .6 1.3 Reconciliation of the Principles of Mediocrity with the Rare Human Hypothesis 10 1.4 Our limited Observation Window . 13 2 Number of Terrestrial Planets in Habitable Zone 15 2.1 Temporal Window and Galactic Habitable Zone . 15 2.2 Definition of Stellar Habitable Zone . 16 2.3 Definition of Sun-like Stars . 18 2.4 Number of Stars . 20 2.5 Peak of Terrestrial Planet formation . 23 2.6 Excluding Over-counted Binaries and Multiples . 24 2.7 Habitability of Low Mass Binaries . 56 2.8 Red Dwarves’ Habitability . 60 2.9 Habitability of Exomoon . 68 3 Number of Earth 72 3.1 Orbital Eccentricity . 72 3.2 Orbital Period . 73 3.3 Earth & Moon Separation . 75 3.4 Earth-Moon Collision Probability Explanation . 82 3.5 The Right Rotational Speed . 90 3.6 Moon’s Obliquity Evolution . 94 3.7 Earth Size . 95 3.8 The Chance of Getting Watered . 97 3.9 Total Water Budget of Earth . 101 3.10 Right Ocean & Land Mix . 105 3.11 Plate Tectonics . 112 4 Evolution 115 4.1 Water vs. Other Solvents . 115 4.2 Biocomplexity Explanation . 116 4.3 Probability on the Emergence of Prokaryotes from Amino Acids . 117 4.4 Probability on the Emergence of Eukaryotes, Sex, and Multicellularity . 121 4.5 Speed of Multicellular Evolution . 125 4.6 BER . 135 4.7 Continent Cycle . 135 2 4.8 Continental Movement Speed . 140 5 Homo Sapien Emergence Probability 143 5.1 Why Human Did not Appear Earlier . 143 5.2 Ice Age as an Accelerator and Its Causes . 144 5.3 Expected Ice Age Interval . 146 5.4 Supercontinent Cycle and Ice Age . 164 5.5 The Probability of the Hominid Lineage . 171 5.5.1 Binocular Vision . 172 5.5.2 Large Cranial Capacity . 173 5.5.3 Language . 173 5.5.4 Bipedal . 174 5.5.5 Thumbs . 174 5.5.6 Social . 175 5.5.7 Omnivorous Feeding . 175 5.6 The Probability of Alternative Intelligence . 186 5.7 Probability of the Emergence of Homo Sapiens within the Genus Homo . 191 5.8 Probability of Fruit Trees . 192 5.9 Probability of Crop Plants . 193 5.10 Probability of Angiosperm . 195 6 The Distribution Model 196 6.1 Mathematical Model for Human Evolution . 196 6.2 Background Rate . 198 6.3 Counting YAABER . 204 6.4 YAABER for Evolution of Homo Sapiens . 209 6.5 YAABER for Hunter Gatherer . 211 6.6 YAABER for Feudal Society . 213 6.7 YAABER for Industrial Society . 221 7 Model Predictions 229 7.1 Number of Habitable Earth . 229 7.2 The Model . 231 7.3 The Wall of Semi-Invisibility . 237 7.3.1 Base Case: . 244 7.3.2 Inductive Step: . 247 7.4 Complexity Equivalence . 264 7.5 Complexity Transformation . 268 7.6 Darwin’s Great-Great Grandson’s Cosmic Voyage . 270 7.7 Upper Bound & Lower Bound . 272 3 7.8 Subluminal Expansion . 275 7.9 Observational Equations . 276 8 Relativistic Economics 280 8.1 Overview . 280 8.2 Earthbound Democracy . 294 8.3 Earthbound Investing Nearest Galaxy . 295 8.4 Galaxy Bound Investing Nearest Galaxy . 297 8.5 Earthbound Ruling Class . 298 8.6 Shipbound with Energy Gathering Case . 300 8.7 Shipbound as Lottery Winners Case . 302 8.8 Post-Singularity . 303 8.9 Expansion Speed from Outsider’s Perspective . 306 8.10 Worm Hole . 309 8.11 Worm Hole Maintenance Cost . 319 9 The Principle of Universal Contacts 326 9.1 E(d, v) Derivation and the Limit of Our Reach . 326 9.2 Connected/Disconnected . 337 9.3 Cosmic Nash Equilibrium . 343 9.4 Looking Back in Time . 345 10 Conclusion 351 10.1 Extra-terrestrials vs. Time . 351 10.2 Final Thoughts . 353 4 1 Introduction 1.1 New Understanding Sharpens the Fermi Paradox The recent discovery by Kepler Exoplanet hunting mission revealed that Earth-like planets within the habitable zones of main sequence stars in the Milky Way galaxy might well be within the range of billions.[22] On the other hand, a practical technique to achieve nuclear fusion using the project PACER approach, which was further refined upon using small yield hydrogen detonation device with minimal fissioning plutonium underground concrete cavity[27][91] has guaranteed a cheap, sustainable energy budget for industrial use into the indefinite future.[47] Therefore, a Hubbert like peak of resource exhaustion due to falling EROEI for fossil fuel based industrial civilization can be avoided technically speaking.[47][46][57][92] Though energy conservation must be enacted in the future for such scenario to hold and to avoid Jevon’s Paradox as a planet based civilization.[43] Furthermore, city-sized spaceship based on nuclear fusion power plants based on Project PACER model, also enable human interstellar travel in less than geological timescale and magnitudes lower than astronomical scales.[89] Based on the calculation, nuclear fusion powered vessels are capable of carrying the total population of human race to any predetermined destinations in a few generations with fully furnished and self- sustaining life quarters at up to a small fraction the speed of light c. If nuclear fusion inter-stellar vessels project is initiated, populations magnitudes higher than the current population can be migrated to predetermined destinations. Assuming every extraterrestrial industrial civilization arise in the Milky Way follow a similar developmental pattern of earth based on the Principle of Mediocrity, we should expect them to discover at least project PACER model of nuclear fusion. They should also be able to confirm the existence of billions of habitable planets scattered in their galaxy. Then, a strong case is presented for their preference to expand and explore the galaxies less than geologic time and bounded by the speed of light from stationary observers on earth at a maximum of 105 years for the diameter of the entire galaxy disk. (105 yrs < x<109 yrs) However, no overwhelming scientific evidence since the inception of SETI project has proved that any star in the Milky Way host an industrial civilization. Given the age of Milky Way Galaxy at 1011 yrs and the Principle of Mediocrity applying to the temporal aspect of cosmic biological evolution, then the chance that all extraterrestrial industrial civilization 4 evolved at around the margin of 104 yrs so that they currently remain undetectable is 10 Yrs 1011 Yrs = 10-7 for each habitable planet. With 109 habitable planets within the galaxy, the chance is 10-16 in Milky Way alone. This chance can also be argued as the chance of success of extraterrestrial industrial civilization arising in our galaxy yet we failed to observe them so far. Indeed, this hope crushing number can be interpreted as such that our chance to colonize the galaxy is not much greater than 0. Assuming intelligent life can be evolved easily and transforms into an industrial civilization and all intelligent life destroys themselves eventually regardless their worldview and culture. However, I have just shown that cosmic expansion 5 is the predicted outcome of industrial civilization. Furthermore, the recent analysis that an average earth-like habitable planet has a median age of 78 Gyr, that is 25 Gyr ahead of earth in development. Paradoxically, advocates of Technological Singularity argues for accelerating return generalized from the Moore’s Law.
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