www.africa-confidential.com 24 January 2003 Vol 44 No 2 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL KENYA 2 On the mend President Kibaki’s stint in hospital Coming out of the closet is not slowing the pace of The first plan may have failed but finding an exit route for Comrade government reform. Finance Mugabe is now political centre stage Minister Mwiraria is preparing a The architects of the soft-landing plan for President Robert Gabriel Mugabe are frustrated (AC Vol 44 new economic programme for the return visit of the IMF next month, No 1). Their efforts have produced the opposite effect to that intended: Mugabe is now less inclined to and government ministers speak negotiate a retirement than he was six months ago. Not only have Colonel Lionel Dyck and opposition confidently of a new constitution in leader exposed the scheme, the public naming of parliamentary Speaker Emmerson place by mid-year. Dambudzo Mnangagwa and the Commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces, General Vitalis Gava Zvinavashe (AC Vol 43 No 23), as its authors has made them targets of Mugabe’s considerable wrath. CÔTE D’IVOIRE 4 Enraged that he wasn’t informed about the advanced state of the negotiations – several meetings with South African President Thabo Mbeki and intermediaries in Britain – Mugabe has interpreted Foul play Mnangagwa’s and Zvinavashe’s scheme as tantamount to treason. Mugabe’s attack-dog, Information Minister , told the state-owned daily, The Herald that the Mnangagwa plan amounted Despite the optimism emanating from the Paris talks, it is not clear to a coup d’état. how a peace deal can halt the Then, he lambasted South Africa. Prompted by intrepid reporters from the Johannesburg Sunday Times killings and disappearances now who trailed Moyo on an embarrassingly opulent shopping trip, contrasting the Minister’s grocery list with commonplace in Abidjan, nor how the plight of six million starving Zimbabweans, he described South Africa as ‘dirty, filthy and recklessly easy it will be to disarm and uncouth’. Then in a sideswipe at President Mbeki (an accessory to the Mugabe soft-landing plan) Moyo reintegrate the rebels controlling half the country. continued, ‘If these people in the name of South Africa believe they can lead an African Renaissance, then God help them... their barbarism will never take root.’ As the insult was sinking in, a government official explained that Moyo was speaking only for himself – odd for an Information Minister. SÃO TOMÉ E PRÍNCIPE 5 Moyo, Chinamasa and Made Fradique’s new front Moyo and his allies, Minister of Justice and Minister of Agriculture Joseph Made, The tiny island state could be the want to make maximum capital out of Mnangagwa’s current embarrassment. Moyo is an improbable Gulf of Guinea’s next oil Eldorado acolyte for Mugabe. A decade ago, he forecast that unless the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union- if it can resolve a battle over deals Patriotic Front could reform itself, it would be seriously challenged by a mass trades union-based party. signed by President Fradique de Menezes’s predecessor. But Missing from Moyo’s forecast was his own move from civil society critic to ZANU-PF partisan. Nigeria is a powerful adversary. Now he believes he could succeed Mugabe as president if he can delay the 78-year-old ’s departure for a few years. Chinamasa, a shrewder tactician than Moyo, also believes he has a chance in the succession stakes. Made, the least cerebral of the three, is happy to keep his portfolio. Unkind SOUTH AFRICA 7 colleagues suggest that Made’s lack of critical faculties made him the perfect choice to implement ZANU- Gatsha bites back PF’s land resettlement programme. Mugabe regards Moyo’s professions of ultra-loyalty as compensating for his lack of a liberation war Inkatha has scuppered ANC record. Mugabe told a group of activists from South Africa’s Pan Africanist Congress late last year that attempts to gain control of he would rear a new generation of ZANU-PF militants committed to land reform and African nationalism. KwaZulu-Natal by teaming up with smaller opposition parties. This is So Mugabe has become even more reluctant to hand over to one of his near contemporaries. Now he a setback for President Thabo speaks of nurturing a successor and skipping a generation in the party hierarchy. That view was already Mbeki, and could encourage working against the former heir-apparent, Mnangagwa; now, the row over the soft-landing plan has Inkatha to form a broader driven a wedge between the two men. opposition coalition. Mnangagwa and Zvinavashe are both Karanga, the most numerous of Zimbabwe’s ethnic groups – as is the Movement for Democratic Change leader, Morgan Tsvangirai. Now Mugabe is said to regard the POINTERS 8 soft-landing plan as a Karanga plot to oust him. He implicates Foreign Minister and High Commissioner to Samuel Mbengegwi, both Karanga and both, in Mugabe’s view, having kept Sudan, Congo- him out of the loop. In particular, Mugabe regards Mbengegwi as soft on his arch-enemies, Britain and Kinshasa, Senegal its Prime Minister, Tony Blair. One element of the plan was that Mnangagwa and his business backers would persuade Britain and the European Union to drop sanctions against Zimbabwe if Mugabe retired & Kenya and fresh elections were held. Coordinates; cable controversy; Certainly, Mnangagwa’s and Zvinavashe’s involvement in the soft-landing plan had a strong self- rallying round; and foundation interest component as it envisaged immunity from prosecution for Mugabe and for his most senior aides. stoned. Mnangagwa and Zvinavashe were deeply involved in the Matabeleland massacres: Mnangagwa was Director of the Central Intelligence Organisation and Zvinavashe, whose nom de guerre was Sheba Gava 24 January 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 2

(‘the Jackal’), was regarded as one of the most ruthless of the Five further still. As Kibaki was admitted to hospital, his Vice-President Brigade commanders. He was appointed ZDF Commander in July Michael Kijana Wamalwa was in London on diplomatic business – 1994 for a four year term. Since then, Mugabe has renewed his tenure and yes, a medical check on his kidney condition. each year but is now likely to retire him by the end of June. Still enthused by the opposition’s arrival in power (AC Vol 43 No At the beginning of the year, Zvinavashe told the Harare weekly 25 & Vol 44 No 1), Kenyans seem sanguine about the health questions Business Tribune (owned by a Mnangagwa ally, Mutumwa Mawere) surrounding the leaders of the new order. That’s partly because that Zimbabwe’s economic crisis was caused by bad policies as well Kibaki’s popularity has increased since his landslide victory and his as drought: such an admission is regarded as thought-crime by Mugabe. establishment of a strong ministerial team (see Box) four days after his The Mnangagwa-supporting paper strongly attacked Mugabe’s land inauguration. The absence of the President and his deputy cast the reform programme (formerly sacrosanct to ZANU officials) as ‘an spotlight on the second-tier leadership – the political management of albatross on the country’s neck’. Mnangagwa’s business backers, Public Works Minister and economic management of Mawere and John Arnold Bredenkamp, have both been banned from Finance Minister David Mwiraria – as two issues are set to dominate the United States because of their association with ZANU-PF. the government’s first year: the promise of a new constitution within Mnangagwa is the target of a whispering campaign by his rivals. six months and the re-establishment of good financial relations with They have told Mugabe that the soft-landing plan was designed chiefly the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. to parachute Mnangagwa into the presidency and to benefit his business Constitutional reform technically comes under the new Minister of backers. They claim that in Mnangagwa’s home area in Midlands, Justice and Constitutional Affairs, Kirailu Murungi, and the old many white-owned farms have been left intact, suggesting clandestine Attorney General, Amos Wako. The issue has become highly charged deals, and they also want Mnangagwa to be questioned about overseas politically as the new government is committed to delivering a new bank accounts set up for flower exporters. constitution before the end of this year; some ministers promise it will He may have lost Mugabe’s imprimatur but Mnangagwa is still the be before August. The members of the constitutional review panel dominant succession contender (and he continues to have Mbeki’s appointed by former President ’s government and ear). The unveiling of his soft landing plan launched the succession chaired by Yash Pal Ghai have unsurprisingly fallen out. The aim of struggle. We hear that some of Mnangagwa’s supporters in the many Moi-appointees appeared to be to prolong the review process for military and intelligence service are likely to be roped into the as long as possible, certainly until after the elections. After Ghai increasingly surrealistic investigation surrounding the treason charges suggested commissioners’ salaries should be stopped when their term against Tsvangirai. expired on 3 January, a faction led by Okoth Ogendo publicly Zvinavashe’s retirement will weaken Mnangagwa’s base in the rebuked him. upper echelons of the military, where his two key opponents, the Army Commander, Lieutenant Gen. Constantine Chiwenga, and Air Force Raila and reform Commander, Air Marshal Perence Shiri, are consolidating their Murungi appears confident about resolving technical problems with power bases. Retired Gen. and non-retired kingmaker Solomon the review commission but may find reaching political consensus Mujuru has been promoting sacked Finance Minister about power-sharing more difficult. Some National Alliance Rainbow for the succession. Shiri, a nephew of Mugabe’s, is coordinating a Coalition (NARC) activists suggest the government may be less keen succession strategy with other Zezuru officers such as Chiwenga to on weakening the executive powers of the presidency following its isolate Mnangagwa’s supporters. Shiri hopes to take over as ZDF landslide in both legislative and presidential elections. Specifically, Commander when Zvinavashe is retired in June. The leading Zezuru some of Kibaki’s allies have concerns about the creation of a prime candidate for the succession, Defence Minister Sidney Sekeramayi, minister’s position which, as in the French constitution, would share lacks both Mnangagwa’s steel and his support network. executive powers with the presidency. Their concerns are all the Ndebele contenders, such as Dumiso Dabengwa and , greater when former opposition firebrand-turned-Kenya African have been ruled out by ZANU’s hierarchy. The strongest Ndebele National Union Minister and now NARC Minister, Raila Odinga, is contender is now Moyo but he still lacks support in the military and targeting the prime ministerial job. intelligence services. Instead, he may benefit from the disarray in The constitutional issue is becoming a debate about Odinga’s Mnangagwa’s camp after the soft-landing plan was exposed. However, political longevity. For now, he is critical to the NARC project: not President Mugabe will need more than an attack-dog to fight off the only did he deliver over 90 per cent of the votes in his Nyanza Province growing pressure. to NARC, he did much of the active election campaigning because of the constraints on Kibaki and Wamalwa. Yet Odinga’s record of KENYA political dalliance and his destruction of KANU last year strikes fear into some NARC officials. There are also those who argue that just as the ruling party benefited from the existing constitutional and electoral arrangements (centralised power structures, electoral boundaries On the mend grossly favouring rural over urban areas and a first-past-the-post Constitutional and economic reform top the electoral system) so would NARC in its new position of electoral new government’s priority list superiority. Such tactical considerations could slow down the constitutional review process again. Optimists have suggested that Kenya’s wheelchair-bound President The economic strategy and timetable are much clearer. Ever in need is a metaphor for the national condition: physically of African success stories, IMF and World Bank officials are gung-ho constrained but spiritually indomitable – or in Kenya’s new political – except perhaps for the most senior of them, who were stung by their parlance, ‘unbwogable’. After Kibaki’s admission to hospital with a last failure to make their programme stick to the Moi government. blood clot in his leg (he has been confined to a wheelchair since a road When IMF Africa Director Abdoulaye Bio Tchané arrived in Nairobi accident during the campaign), the metaphor may need to stretch on 15 January, he reiterated the old message: that Kenya must fulfill

2 24 January 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 2 The Unbwogables The businesslike buzz of President Mwai Kibaki’s is a world soon, although Biwott, together with Sally Kosgey, is firmly in the sights for apart from his predecessor Daniel arap Moi’s more gregarious style. legal action by some of Kibaki’s new ministers. Kibaki’s team is known as the Unbwogables (unbeatables) and he has Kibaki has to show due respect to Vice-President Kijana Wamalwa, who assumed the style of an avuncular company chairman. Everyone bar his brought much of the Luhya vote from Western Province. He has moved the wife and Vice-President Michael Kijana Wamalwa has to book an VP’s office from its old isolated location at Jogoo House to Harambee appointment to see Kibaki. Appointments are managed by just one man: House, in the same complex as the President’s office. Minister of State in State House Comptroller Matere Keriri. Under Moi, several ‘appointment Wamalwa’s office is Lina Jebii Kiimo, who campaigned against female brokers’ traded on their reputed access to the President and even casual circumcision, other human rights abuses and cattle rustling. visitors received substantial monetary gifts – a practice Kibaki has ended. For Kibaki, Wamalwa is an important foil to Public Works Minister Raila The other key officials now at State House, all old Kibaki associates, are Odinga, widely seen as the most ambitious man in the government. Minister of State in the Office of the President (Provincial Administration Odinga’s portfolio, through which billions of dollars of public sector and National Security), Christopher Murungaru, Personal Assistant contracts pass, is key to the anti-corruption drive. His performance will be Alfred Getonga and Head of Presidential Press Service, Isaiya Kabira. scrutinised by a phalanx of financial experts. Less problematic for Kibaki Another important Kibaki associate from the early days of the Democratic but almost as important in the Alliance-building behind NARC are Home Party is George Muhoho (who briefly took over as State House Comptroller Affairs Minister and Health Minister Charity Ngilu. Both on 30 December after the Independent Electoral Commission announced are tough portfolios awarded for political rather than technical skills. Kibaki had won the elections). Muhoho has contacts across the political Finance Minister David Mwiraria, a longtime DP activist, combines spectrum and is Uhuru Kenyatta’s uncle. Uhuru’s mother, Mama Ngina, both technical and political imperatives. Heading the economic team, the helped to finance the DP. quietly spoken Mwiraria will shape the new government’s performance Relations with ex-President Daniel arap Moi are much frostier. Kibaki’s more than anyone apart from Kibaki. Both are economics graduates: when failure to reciprocate Moi’s compliments on inauguration day on 30 Kibaki was lecturing at Makerere University, Uganda, in the 1960s, December rankled. Now the Moi family and its political associates worry Mwiraria was a post-graduate student there. about legal action against them to recover allegedly misappropriated funds. Permanent Secretary to Mwiraria will be the respected Joe Magari, who Some National Alliance Rainbow Coalition activists are disappointed at was appointed PS in 1992 but was dismissed after two months for his refusal the Moi-era holdovers in Kibaki’s government. Few expect them to survive to approve the financial transfers that later developed into the $400 mn. for long under the new order. Kibaki’s advisors wanted two key Moi- Goldenberg scandal. The former PS at the Treasury, Joseph Kinyua, has appointees inside the tent, at least at the start: the Director General of the been moved to Planning and Development under radical Minister Peter National Security Intelligence Service, Brigadier Wilson Boinett, and the Anyang’ Nyongo. Head of Public Service and Secretary to the Cabinet, Sally Kosgey. Moi-appointee Amos Wako stays on as Attorney General for the short Both Boinett and Kosgey presented themselves as knowledgeable about term but with circumscribed powers. He no longer attends cabinet meetings the major financial scandals under Moi. At a recent cabinet meeting, and is politically junior to the new Justice and Constitutional Affairs Kosgey blamed Nicholas Kipyator Biwott’s daughter Esther for the crisis Minister, Kiraitu Murungi. Two Kenya African National Union defectors, at Kenya Reinsurance, although insurance brokers blame Kosgey for Education Minister and Foreign Minister Stephen Kalonzo appointing Peter Kenneth as Managing Director. He presided over the Musyoka, have effortlessly floated to the top of the new dispensation. company during the crisis. As Kibaki’s team starts unravelling the financial Saitoti’s fiery enthusiasm for free education is unrecognisable from the leads, expect more finger pointing from Moi’s former team. Kibaki quickly ultra-loyal Vice-President to Moi. Few believe he has forgotten his dismissed Moi’s Internal Security Chief, Zakayo Cheruiyot, who has been presidential ambitions. accused by the United States Department of State of helping to harbour The most newsworthy appointment was that of doughty campaigner Rwandan genocide suspect Félicien Kabuga, for whose capture there is a Wangari Maathai as Minister of State for Environment. Within days of her US$5 million reward. A Kenyan businessman, William Munuhe, who had appointment, she had set up a hotline in her office and was taking journalists helped US agents to set a trap for Kabuga, was found shot dead in his house to watch formerly public land being reclaimed from KANU politicians. this week. Another media-friendly appointee is Najib Balala as Minister of Gender, Most of Moi’s other pillars – Professor Sam Ongeri, Hosea Kiplagat, Sports and Culture. As former Mayor of Mombassa and usurper of KANU Nicholas Biwott and Joshua Kulei – are not likely to resurface in government stalwart Sherrif Nassir, Balala is already a legend in Coastal politics. four major conditions on which Moi’s government had reneged: January and will be tabled in Parliament on 28 January. The Poverty 1. A Code of Ethics under which public servants would declare their Reduction Strategy Paper drafted in 2000 is being revised. Under assets, which Kibaki has promised will happen (in camera, albeit). Swalim Saleh, a respected detective from the Coast, the Anti-Corruption 2. Privatisation of parastatals, such as Kenya Telecoms, Kenya Ports Task Force has already brought charges against a magistrate and some Authority, Kenya Railways and Kenya Commercial Bank. Kibaki public servants. The non-accountable allocation of construction was slightly more ambivalent but the debate within the government contracts, public land, forest reserves and government housing under has already started. the Moi government to its associates has been reversed. The IMF may 3. Establishment of an independent Anti-Corruption Authority. The resume lending to Kenya in June or July, opening the door to a Paris KANU majority in parliament rejected the last one as unconstitutional. Donors’ Consultative Meeting soon afterwards. Bio Tchané’s visit last Now Kibaki has hired the head of anti-graft lobby Transparency week was accompanied by a small team of macroeconomists. A full- International, John Githongo, as Permanent Secretary for good strength IMF team is expected to return in mid-February. There are governance to monitor the government’s anti-corruption campaign. good prospects that the IMF Executive Board may approve reissue of 4. Fast-track prosecution of the most egregious economic crimes. the IMF credit worth US$270 million, suspended since 1999. Draft bills for the anti-corruption provisions were published on 15 That will be the signal for the World Bank, together with European

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and North American governments, to restart development credits. MALI Both Britain and the United States gave early indications of fresh BURKINA FASO development aid. UK International Development Secretary Clare Short visited this week and the US Assistant Secretary of State for Odienné African Affairs, Walter Kansteiner, visited in the first week of Boundiali Ferkessédougou Korhogo January. Having backed Tanzania and Uganda so strongly in the past Bouna B GUINEA la c decade, UK and US officials now suggest Kenya may at last be setting k V o MPCI l t a good example to the other two East African economies. a CÔTE D’IVOIRE Touba Katiola Bondoukou MPIGO Séguéla CÔTE D’IVOIRE & MJP Bouaké Man FRENCH TROOP Danané DEPLOYMENTS Daloa Bouaflé GHANA Foul play Dimbokro Abengourou YAMOUSSOUKRO K Bongouanou o Guiglo m B o a é n Delegates talk peace in Paris but back home d a Adzopé Gagnoa m a the killings continue and divisions deepen Soubré Divo S a LIBERIA s sa Major changes to laws on eligibility to hold political office and to own n d Abidjan r a land have been outlined by Côte d’Ivoire’s political parties and rebel Grand- movements meeting in France since 15 January. They promise a full Sassandra Bassam San Pédro accord to be ratified at a summit in Paris on 25-26 January. As formal diplomacy proceeds abroad, new ethnic alliances and divisions are GULF OF GUINEA developing at home, sparking more fighting. The talks in the National 200 kilometres Rugby Centre at Marcoussis, south of Paris, are mediated by Pierre 100 miles Mazeaud, an ally of President Jacques Chirac, member of the President Mamadou Koulibaly of Gbagbo’s Front Populaire Ivoirien Conseil Constitutionnel and former minister with experience of (FPI) stormed out on 20 January, accusing Mazeaud of being too soft constitutional law in Africa but no close association with the delegates. on the rebels. The rebels claimed the government delegation had French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin launched this offered them envelopes of cash but they had handed them over to latest round of negotiations after visiting Abidjan in November and Mazeaud. The rebels are still pressing for early elections and security early January (AC Vol 43 No 25). France now has 2,500 troops in Côte issues are yet to be finalised. Peace proposals call for the rebels to d’Ivoire, as many as it deployed for the ill-fated Opération Turquoise disarm and reintegrate into the army or civil society, and for security in Rwanda. Former Prime Minister Alassane Dramane Ouattara to be restored throughout the country by the peacekeeping force, to be was back in the limelight after weeks of seclusion, in the French gradually replaced by the national army. Embassy in Abidjan and then in Gabon. His Rassemblement des The FPI delegation was led by Prime Minister Affi N’Guessan, Républicains (RDR) arrived at the talks calling for elections this year, with party Secretary General Oureto Miaka, ministers Hubert Oulaye though this looks improbable. and Alphonse Douaty, and FPI official Masseni Touré. The PDCI President Laurent Gbagbo, who is not at the talks, proposed a team was led by Bédié, with party Secretary General Alphonse Djédjé peace plan which included three referendums: on eligibility conditions Mady, party notables Jean Konan Banny and Noël Nemin, and a for the presidency, on land ownership rights and on the conditions for former Security Minister, General Gaston Ouassenan Koné. As well nationality and citizenship – a cumbersome scheme that would keep as Ouattara, the RDR fielded party Secretary General Henriette the electorate busy until Gbagbo’s term ends in late 2005. Former Dagri Diabaté, who told Africa Confidential the security was ‘like a President Henri Konan Bédié, who wants his old job back, curiously boarding school’, deputy Secretary General Amadou Gon Coulibaly, defended the ‘beauty’ of the original concept of Ivoirité. He must take academic and party official Ibrahim Bacongo Cissé and Hamed much of the blame for letting the ethnic genie out of the bottle and must Bakayoko, director of RDR newspaper Le Patriote. now negotiate with Guillaume Soro, Secretary General of the There were also five delegates from the Union pour la Paix et la Mouvement Patriotique de la Côte d’Ivoire (MPCI), whom he detained Démocratie en Côte d’Ivoire (UDPCI), the party formed by followers in the mid-1990s when he was leader of the students’ union, the of the former military leader, Gen. Robert Gueï, killed by loyalist Fédération Estudiantine et Scolaire de la Côte d’Ivoire (FESCI). troops on 19 September, hours after the rebellion began. The MJP and An invitation to negotiations in Paris was a diplomatic coup for the Mouvement Populaire Ivoirien du Grand-Ouest (MPIGO) also claim rebels, who control the northern half of the country but are largely loyalty to Gueï. observing a truce. While the MPCI has a clear political platform, the The MPCI was represented by Soro, spokesman Konaté Sidiki, Mouvement pour la Justice et la Paix (MJP) spokesman, Mohamed field commander Colonel Michel Gueu, Warrant Officer Tuo Fozié, Sess, admitted that his group hadn’t yet drawn up a political programme, the commander in Bouaké and the Paris-based Louis Dakoury- beyond wanting the killing of foreigners (mostly Burkinabès, plus Tabley, a former senior FPI official who defected to the MPCI on 6 Guineans and Malians) to stop. November. The MPIGO team comprised their field commander The talks are being held behind closed doors at the National Rugby Sergeant Felix Doh, plus Roger Banki, a rubber baron close to the Centre, a modern complex more usually used for keeping the national RDR, acting as its spokesman. team in seclusion (Côte d’Ivoire qualified for the Rugby World Cup Gbagbo’s relations with Paris have deteriorated sharply since the in 1995). Learning from the failure of the Rambouillet talks on start of the crisis, to the point where French Ambassador Renaud Kosovo, Paris kept the delegates cloistered to minimise leaks. Vignal had to be replaced in December by Gildas le Lidec but he still The process has not been without its troubles. National Assembly has friends in the opposition Parti Socialiste, among such senior 4 24 January 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 2 figures as Michel Rocard, Charles Josselin, Henri Emmanuelli and Ivorian-born parent instead of two and would be required to have lived Guy Labertit. continuously in Côte d’Ivoire for five years before the elections, rather than being required to have never given up Ivorian nationality Crossing the line or used another nationality. These conditions were originally conceived In Abidjan, the climate is more tense. The central business district during Konan Bédié’s presidency as a means of excluding Ouattara looks normal, even rather tidier than usual since the city authorities and were toughened in 2000 under Gueï. took advantage of the current climate to clear out the street traders and If the RDR leader is to run in 2005, he must return to Côte d’Ivoire. woro-woros (shared taxis). In the quartiers populaires, though, His villa in Cocody was torched early in the rebellion but he has talked everyone has tales of the soldiers who arrive in four-wheel-drive of living in his northern home village of Kong, where his brother vehicles at dead of night or in the small hours, under cover of the Gaoussou is the patriarch. Althought outright foreign ownership of curfew. Bodies are being found on the edge of the Forêt de Banco, on land will still not be permitted, the 1998 land ownership laws will be Abidjan’s northern edge, and troops stop anyone trying to penetrate relaxed to allow inheritance of long-term leases. deeper into the forest. The weekend summit, which will be attended by senior African In this climate, popular support for the regime is ebbing rapidly and leaders from outside the region, such as South Africa’s President the raids are as much to search for arms caches as to wipe out Thabo Mbeki, as well as donor representatives, will have to consider government opponents. Rabble-rousing FPI youth leaders such as a longer-term commitment to bringing Côte d’Ivoire back from its Charles Blé Goudé wield significant power. His followers staged a precipitous descent into chaos. Containing Liberian President Charles demonstration that prevented De Villepin leaving Gbagbo’s residence Taylor is one priority, while in Guinea, President Lansana Conté’s in Abidjan’s Cocody district on 3 January and at a pro-government declining health (he has just returned from three weeks in hospital in demonstration on 18 January, student leader Jean-Yves Dibopieu Morocco being treated for diabetes) is another destabilising factor. told the crowd that if the talks in France went badly, they should seek out French schools and colleges. The MPCI had boldly announced an SÃO TOMÉ E PRÍNCIPE anti-government march in Abidjan on 22 January but postponed it at the last minute, saying it did not want to jeopardise the talks. Conditions in the north are increasingly grim. Schools are closed, government employees’ salaries are inaccessible and food is scarce Fradique’s new front and expensive. As the country’s main brewery is in Abidjan and the A newcomer to oil finds that old deals with cigarette factory is in Bouaké, supplies of both commodities are often foreign friends gum up the works problematic on the other side of the line. Ethnic splits are deepening. Loyalist troops returning from the west The standoff between President Fradique de Menezes and oil interests say that ethnic Malinké northerners are being ordered not to fight but in Nigeria, Norway and the United States blocks development of São to stay in their bases and that front-line commanders are east European. Tomé e Príncipe’s offshore zone, which may hold billions of barrels The mercenaries are based at Yamoussoukro’s Hôtel Président. New of oil (AC Vol 43 Nos 14 & 21). Uncertainty over oil is stirring the recruits to the army are overwhelmingly Bété, the ethnic group of waters: Fradique dissolved parliament on 21 January after vetoing a Gbagbo, and there are signs of a deepening rift between the Bété and parliamentary constitutional proposal to curb presidential powers, the Baoulé, the former ruling elite who remain in many positions of including the right to negotiate oil deals. power. A delegation of Baoulé patriarchs met N’Guessan before the Fradique, who is driving this latest turmoil (parliament is playing a Paris talks to express concern about media accusations that leading more reactive role), wants the legislature to adopt a national referendum Baoulé politicians were financing the rebellion. on the constitution. This could work in his favour, as he is quite After the FPI daily Notre Voie accused army Chief of Staff Gen. popular. Fradique justified his move partly on the grounds of ‘insults’ Mathias Doué (a Géré from the west) of plotting to carry out a coup levelled at him in the House and the fact that Member Delfim Neves during the Paris talks, Doué complained that people close to the suggested the army should intervene to stop him from vetoing the government were constantly accusing him of plotting to overthrow constitutional proposal. The army has stayed quiet. Gbagbo. Gbagbo is expected in Paris on 24 February for talks with The grandiloquent President says negotiations could be concluded Chirac ahead of the weekend summit, to be co-chaired by the French with Nigeria ‘during 2003’ – a long time in the oil business. His President and United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan. country and Nigeria cancelled a licensing round planned for London, Some 40 Senegalese troops and 170 from Niger have arrived as a Britain, and Houston, Texas, last October. Yet no oil has actually first detachment of the West African peacekeeping force, with 85 been found yet and even if all the engineering went smoothly, none Togolese expected imminently (AC Vol 43 No 22). They will deploy would probably be seen before 2007. Nevertheless, regional alongside French soldiers to police the ceasefire line. France, whose complications make this deal extraordinary. mandate for intervention is slightly unclear, says it would welcome The oil companies are interested mainly in two offshore zones UN involvement, though a Senegalese proposal for the French and (though maverick German/South African businessman Chris West African forces to be placed under a UN mandate was rejected by Hellinger, who spent years in and whose interests on the the United States. archipelago include hotels, has done some quixotic onshore drilling). The western rebels are backed by mercenaries from Liberia and One of the two offshore areas, in eastern São Toméan waters, is Sierra Leone, and the Ivorian Consul General in Monrovia has labelled the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), to be developed by São complained that the former commander of Sierra Leone’s Revolutionary Tomé on its own account. United Front (RUF), Sam Bockarie, known as ‘General Mosquito’ is The other promising offshore area straddles the disputed maritime now in Côte d’Ivoire. border with Nigeria. In 2001, it was agreed that this should be a Joint Delegates agreed to amend the controversial Article 35 of the Development Zone, with 60 per cent of any revenue for Nigeria and constitution, so that candidates for the presidency would require one 40 per cent for São Tomé. However, in an annexe to the JDZ treaty,

5 24 January 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 2

NIGERIA Citizens’ Energy. Bight of Benin Port Harcourt Fradique rejected Nigeria’s recent offer of a military exchange M ou programme and is cosying up to Washington. Fradique was among ths CAMEROON of the Niger Douala African leaders who met President George W. Bush in Washington in MALABO September; the US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Bioko Walter Kansteiner III, has visited recently, as has US General E Carlton Fulford, head of the US European Command (EuCom). A Q OPL 246 U G A number of men with flat-top haircuts have been seen around. Some U T I N O years ago, there was a West African-South African project to build a E R JOINT I A A deepwater port on Príncipe island (population 5,000). Though last DEVELOPMENT L ZONE Príncipe year’s rumours that the USA was planning a military base in the NE

O Z country (pop. 140,000) appear baseless, Washington may well be C SÃO TOMÉ I M putting down a marker. O E PRÍNCIPE N LIBREVILLE Angola’s Lusophone links to São Tomé run old and deep. Luanda O SÃO TOMÉ C E even helped to squash a coup attempt in 1978. President José E São Tomé V I Eduardo dos Santos has promised technical help for São Tomé’s S LU nascent state oil company, Petrogas, from Angola’s wily Sonangol. GULF OF C X GABON GUINEA E Port-Gentil Luanda-based Mello Xavier owns the islands’ brewery and other interests. António Mosquito, President of Angola’s Falcon Oil (with 200 kilometres a stake in ExxonMobil’s ultra-deep Block 33) says he is interested in 100 miles São Tomé but has so far made no move. Angola wants to keep its Abuja asked to keep a smallish slice overlapping its own promising relations with Nigeria sweet; last October, Dos Santos talked to OPL 246 area, subject to ill defined compensation for São Tomé. Obasanjo’s oil advisor, Rilwanu Lukman, about possible US moves Fradique reckons President Olusegun Obasanjo’s government has in São Tomé. Keen to boost his regional reach, Fradique’s friend Dos paid less than half of Nigeria’s own estimate of the due compensation. Santos wants Angola to be a power-broker between São Tomé and Bigger problems derive from contracts signed under the preceding Washington. He has often sent his Presidency Secretary General, José presidency of Miguel Trovoada, in both JDZ and EEZ. In 1998, Leitão, to persuade Fradique of Luanda’s views. This explains why ExxonMobil picked up what its critics say were huge favours cheaply, last year, Fradique said he wanted a US military base, then retracted. though the company now seems close to agreeing new, more limited Fradique, who fought on the Portuguese side in Mozambique’s rights after a vociferous campaign demanding ‘transparency’ by, Independence war, made his fortune in cocoa and cement. He is seen among others, Fradique. as authoritarian and temperamental. His power is limited by the 55- An even more unusual contract is with Chrome Energy Corporation seat parliament. His Movimento Democrático das Forças da Mudança of Nigeria, owned by Emeka Offor, a prominent Igbo businessman- (MDFM, sometimes known as the Movimento de Defesa de Fradique politician who was close to the dictator Sani Abacha and is now close de Menezes) was elected in an alliance with the Partido de Convergência to Obasanjo. Chrome’s President is Chude Mba, an advisor to the Democrática, with 23 seats: this is now divided. Trovoada’s Acção African Express Bank. In May 1997, under Trovoada, Environmental Democrática Independente (ADI), in a fractured coalition called Uê- Remediation Holding Corporation (ERHC) of Houston signed a deal Kedadji, has eight seats. However, 24 seats are held by the Movimento to fund offshore oil exploration in São Tomé for a signature bonus of de Libertação de São Tomé e Príncipe-Partido Social Democrata $5 mn. This is more than the islands’ usual annual exports (mostly of (MLSTP-PSD, the former single party). Its head, Manuel Pinto da cocoa) but far less than the value of the rights granted. In 1999, São Costa, the first post-Independence President, theoretically in opposition Tomé claimed the deal was unfair and sent it to arbitration. may in practice be, discreetly, Fradique’s strongest ally. In February 2001, Chrome took over ERHC; that May, Chrome’s Both are US-friendly and Manuel Pinto’s brother Henrique Costa bosses, portraying themselves as ‘African brothers’, brokered a deal is an oil advisor to Fradique. After much manoeuvring, the Prime with Trovoada. It cost Chrome $5 mn. more and gave it much reduced Minister, appointed last October, is Maria das Neves of the MLSTP, rights but was still massively disadvantageous for São Tomé. The heading a government with five more MLSTP members, five MDFM, International Monetary Fund hypothesises that if the JDZ produces two Uê-Kedadji and two independents, including the Defence Minister, 800 mn. barrels, perhaps at $20-22/b, with São Tomé getting 37 per Major Fernando Danqua. Natural Resources Minister Rafael Branco, cent of revenue and Nigeria 58 per cent, ERHC/Chrome will, rather who helped to set up the 2001 deal with Chrome, has kept his job. oddly, receive a cumulative $1.45 billion over 20 years. Fradique was elected in 2001 as Trovoada’s protégé and much Fradique came to power in September 2001 and showed the oil finance for his campaign came via Trovoada’s flamboyant son Patrice, deals to the World Bank and IMF. They told him the contracts aka ‘Baby Doc’, who then served briefly as Foreign Minister but was (including those with PGS and ExxonMobil) were unfair and he swore soon fired; the money came from Chrome. to renegotiate them. Yet while the complex Chrome contract – and All the parties want to reduce presidential powers, such as those to all the others – remain unresolved, licensing cannot proceed in the dissolve parliament unilaterally and make oil deals. In late December, JDZ, where signature bonuses could earn São Tomé $100mn. or more Fradique accepted a compromise, brokered by Pinto da Costa, that which it urgently needs, especially to pay its lawyers’ bills of over would curb the presidential mandate – but only after the next presidential $300,000. Fradique’s US lawyers include Greg Craig, of the election in 2005. However, last week, Fradique vetoed the proposal, Washington firm of Williams and Connolly, once attorney for Cuban triggering the crisis. There is widespread support for revising a boy Elian Gonzalez in 2000 and for the then US President in the Bill constitution that is both imprecise and gives too much power to the Clinton-Monica Lewinsky affair. Craig was introduced to Fradique president. Meanwhile, Fradique sees plots everywhere. They are not by his friend Joseph P. Kennedy II, of Boston-based oil outfit all in his imagination. 6 24 January 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 2

and national Correctional Services Minister Ben Skosana; for the DA SOUTH AFRICA were Leon, Federal Council Chairman James Selfe and rising star and Western Cape caucus leader Helen Zille. They discussed ways to develop a cooperative alliance against the ANC and agreed on how to outmanoeuvre it in KZN. By voting as one, they could dissolve the Gatsha bites back KZN legislature, forcing an election within 90 days which they would Inkatha has stopped the ANC’s efforts to contest under an electoral pact. Without a legislature, there could be change the election rules no defections, even if the floor-crossing law were passed. Inkatha, the only party strong enough to face up to the governing Legal confusion African National Congress, won a tactical victory this month in its More legal confusion followed. The rules providing for premature home province of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN). By teaming up with smaller provincial elections expired in 1999, though the constitution allows opposition parties, it scuppered ANC attempts to gain control of the provincial premiers to call fresh elections. Some reckoned the ANC province by changing the rules on party defectors (AC Vol 43 No 15). would have to pass a new electoral law to block that right. Mtshali This a setback for President Thabo Mbeki and his friend, the ANC announced that the provincial legislature would be recalled on 7 leader in KZN, S’bu Ndebele, and could encourage the Inkatha January to vote on dissolution. Freedom Party (IFP) leader, Mangosuthu ‘Gatsha’ Buthelezi, to The ANC does not want a provincial election which it is not sure of lead a broader opposition coalition against the ANC just 15 months winning. Nor does it want the relationship between Inkatha and the before the national elections. DA to be consolidated during an election on a shared anti-ANC For a decade before South Africa’s first free elections in 1994, KZN platform. In the first week of January, the ANC offered a compromise; was a battleground between the Inkatha Freedom Party (financed and it would drop the retrospective clause from the provincial floor- armed by the apartheid National Party government) and the ANC. crossing law, if Inkatha did not dissolve the legislature. Inkatha’s After 1994, the ANC astutely decided to share power with Inkatha; militant faction, including Ambrosini and Mtshali, wanted to reject Buthelezi was handed the office of deputy president and his party was this offer. However, the scale of the ANC concession won acceptance granted control of the KZN government, despite unresolved electoral at a heated Inkatha National Council debate, after which Mtshali told discrepancies. Much of the credit for this smart strategy goes to the the legislature that Inkatha accepted the ANC offer. current national Deputy President, Jacob Zuma, the ANC’s senior The reputation of Ndebele, who is close to Mbeki and tipped for Zulu, who mollified Buthelezi while wooing the Zulu King, Zwelithini, promotion, has suffered. Zuma and ANC Secretary General Kgalema into neutrality (AC Vol 36 No 13). Motlanthe are irritated by his ambition and miscalculations. He was Conciliation has waned lately. ANC-Inkatha relations in KZN have a member of the ANC Youth League in the 1950s and now wants been damaged by proposed new land ownership and chieftaincy laws, recognition as a national leader alongside icons such as Albert which would reduce the powers of the rural chiefs who form Inkatha’s Luthuli, Oliver Tambo and Nelson Mandela – although this is the buttress. Moreover last June, the ANC brought in a law that would second time he has botched a bid for the KZN premiership. After the allow members of provincial legislatures to defect to other parties 1999 elections, he proposed that Buthelezi would be offered a national without prompting an election; this would enable it to win control in deputy presidency in return for surrendering the provisional KZN by persuading five opposition representatives to defect. premiership. Buthelezi refused. Of the five potential KZN defectors, two were from Inkatha, two Mbeki’s latest hefty concession may slow down the Inkatha-DA from the mainly white Democratic Alliance (DA) led by Tony Leon, unity talks. Buthelezi regarded the rapprochement with Leon and the one from the predominantly Xhosa United Democratic Movement DA as a useful weapon against the ANC but nobody knows how (UDM) led by Bantu Holomisa. If they stuck together, the three serious he was about the proposal for unity. Although Inkatha parties could challenge the ANC nationally. Claiming that the ANC accepted the ANC offer, Mtshali refused to reinstate the two sacked was trying to subvert the system of proportional representation through ANC provincial ministers and told the legislature he had consulted his party lists, whereby electors vote for a party in the expectation that its colleague, the DA’s provincial leader, Roger Burrows, on the motion chosen representatives will stay loyal, they appealed to the to dissolve. He did not consult Ndebele, the provincial Transport Constitutional Court. It ruled that floor-crossing was permissible in Minister, and the ANC’s junior status in KZN was underscored. local government but not in provincial assemblies. The ANC said it would amend the constitution to allow it; the opposition parties Visit our website at: www.africa-confidential.com expelled the five prospective defectors from the KZN legislature; the Published fortnightly (25 issues per year) by Africa Confidential, at ANC’s Ndebele insisted he could reinstate the defectors as ANC 73 Farringdon Road, London EC1M 3JQ, . representatives, thus giving his party control of the legislature. Tel: +44 20-7831 3511. Fax: +44 20-7831 6778. Copyright reserved. Editor: Patrick Smith. Deputy Editors: Gillian Lusk Inkatha accused the ANC of seizing power by legislative subterfuge. and Thalia Griffiths. Administration: Clare Tauben and Juliet Amissah. The party faction which favoured the 1999 power-sharing deal with Annual subscriptions including postage, cheques payable to Africa the ANC had given way to a more militant faction under the influence Confidential in advance: of Buthelezi’s Italian-American advisor, Mario Ambrosini, a shrewd Institutions: Africa £328 – UK/Europe £385 – USA $970 – ROW £502 Corporates: Africa £424 – UK/Europe £472 – USA $1093 – ROW £589 strategist who pushes for a wider alliance with the DA. On Ambrosini’s Students (with proof): Africa/UK/Europe/ROW £91 or USA $131 advice, KZN’s Inkatha Premier, Lionel Mtshali, stirred up trouble by African Studies Assoc. members: UK/Europe £70 – Americas $102 – ROW £70 sacking two of the four ANC provincial ministers and replacing them All prices may be paid in equivalent convertible currency. We accept with DA men. American Express, Diner’s Club, Mastercard and Visa credit cards. Subscription enquiries to: Africa Confidential, PO Box 805, Oxford OX4 As the row heated up in December, Inkatha and the DA had a secret 1FH England. Tel: 44 (0)1865 244083 and Fax: 44 (0)1865 381381 meeting, facilitated by Bobby Godsell, a mining executive and Printed in England by Duncan Print and Packaging Ltd, Herts, UK. political analyst. The Inkatha participants included Buthelezi, Mtshali ISSN 0044-6483

7 24 January 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 2

Pointers CONGO-KINSHASA SENEGAL

SUDAN Cable controversy Rallying round The worsening fighting in the Ituri region of Sindiély Wade, daughter of President Abdoulaye eastern Congo-Kinshasa is undermining the peace Wade, chose to compete in the Paris-Dakar rally Coordinates accords signed by Rwanda and Uganda with the the one year the rally came nowhere near the While obstructing the Machakos talks by refusing Kinshasa government, according to diplomatic Senegalese capital. Part of Nissan’s Team to discuss the north-south buffer zone and other cables seen by Africa Confidential. The cables, Dessoude, Wade and co-driver Didier Pelletier key issues, the National Islamic Front (National copies of which have been sent to several Western finished 58th in a Nissan Terrano. ‘An excellent Congress) government is boosting its military embassies and the United Nations headquarters in performance for a first-timer,’ said Nissan. response to the opposition. It has shipped heavy New York, accuse both Rwanda and Uganda of The worst moment for Sindiély was in Spain weapons to the Nile port of Juba and intensified fuelling the fighting by delivering new weapons when her car, Number 277, flipped over after the attacks on the mainly Nuer Upper Nile oil areas to local militias. And the cables suggest there is wheel hit a rut. She played down the incident, (AC Vol 44 No 1) by its latest local (Nuer) ally, a risk of fresh hostilities breaking out between saying rally veteran Thierry Delavergne had Commander Peter Gadet. Rwanda and Uganda for control of a strip of advised her about tactics beforehand. In 2000, Gadet deserted Riek Machar’s mainly mineral-rich territory in Ituri, near the Ugandan Since returning to Dakar from Europe in Nuer, NIF-allied, Sudan People’s Democratic border. They say reconciliation attempts between September 2001, Sindiély has decorated numerous Front and joined up with the Sudan People’s Rwanda and Uganda haven’t been successful. sporting events and was head cheerleader in South Liberation Army; in January 2002, Riek’s SPDF The circulation of the cables coincides with a Korea and Japan when the Lions de Teranga re-merged with the SPLA; after Gadet re-defected tour of North America and Europe by Kinshasa made the quarter-finals of the World Cup. Sindíely to the government in November, the SPLA leader, Information Minister Kikaya bin Karubi and the has been strongly linked with a member of the Colonel John Garang, sent Riek to fight Gadet in Commissioner General in charge of the Great Senegalese football squad. While working in Upper Nile in December. We hear Riek asked for Lakes, Vital Kamerhe, making similar Switzerland for PriceWaterhouseCoopers, she support from Dinka SPLA troops – a paradoxical accusations against the Kampala and Kigali skied and played golf. consequence of the ‘people-to-people peace governments. They want an increase in the size of Nissan says the idea of Sindiély doing the process’, which has included Nuer-Dinka the UN peace keeping force, the Mission de Paris-Dakar was planted by French rocker and reconciliation moves. l’Organisation des Nations Unies au Congo motor enthusiast Johnny Hallyday, 59, who took Riek soon captured large amounts of (MONUC) which is currently fixed at under 5,000. part in 2002 and met her at the post-Rally reception government hardware and communications kit. Last month, the UN Security Council approved in Dakar. Hallyday did not race this year following However, he soon found his mobile headquarters plans for the UN force to 8,700 and speed up a shoulder operation. Like her brother Karim, under accurate gunship attacks: ‘It’s as if they deployment in eastern Congo, where most fighting Sindiély works as an adviser to President Wade. know exactly where to find us’, he told supporters is taking place. She has been dubbed ‘Princess Nepad’ for her role abroad on his captured satellite telephone. Friends The UN and South Africa are joint guarantors in the New Partnership for Africa’s Development, in the United States quickly warned Riek that the of the Rwanda-Congo accord signed in Pretoria which her father was enthusiastically promoting satphone pinpointed his position to within two last September, which commits Kigali to a at a London conference on 22 January before metres. complete withdrawal of troops from Congo and heading to Paris for a summit on Côte d’Ivoire. Upper Nile borders southern Blue Nile, one of Kinshasa to handing over militia fighters involved the ‘marginal areas’ that the NIF says should not in the 1994 genocide in Rwanda (AC Vol 43 No KENYA be on the agenda in the shaky peace talks at 21). Pretoria and the UN have the authority to Machakos, Kenya. SPLA sources say it is sanction whichever side breaches the agreement. ridiculous to claim any ‘conflict areas’ are excluded The diplomatic cables, which quote UN sources, Foundation stoned from the talks and that the government long ago accuse Rwanda of multiple breaches of the accord. Former President Daniel arap Moi’s new project agreed to discuss them. The cables accuse Rwanda of airlifting heavy – the Moi Foundation – has already hit some The government’s objections followed weapons (using Russian planes) and supporting obstacles. Firstly, Moi couldn’t move into offices November’s Nuba and Blue Nile civil society militias loyal to Thomas Lubanga in fighting in at the Kenya International Conference Centre as conference in Kampala, Uganda, where the Beni area. They also accuse Rwanda of planned because his Kenya African National Union Khartoum’s Transitional Council for Peace provoking fighting in the Uvira area to derail the is in dispute with President Mwai Kibaki about delegation, under SPLA-Nuba defector Mohamed Congo peace process and discredit Kinshasa. They KICC’s ownership. The new government was Haroun Kafi, surprisingly agreed that the Nuba also claim there are four Rwandan battalions in expected to have at least made use of Moi’s need self-determination. The government Burundi, which are causing concern to Angola, services in the Somali and Sudanese peace talks promptly dissolved the TCP. Then Col. Garang, Tanzania and Uganda. which Kenya hosts. after visiting the Nuba Mountains for the first Contacted by Africa Confidential, Rwandan That now looks impossible even on a voluntary time, for the SPLA’s Kauda conference, agreed officials denied they had any troops in Congo or basis (Moi is investing some of his considerable that they should be included in a future southern Burundi and accused the authors of the cables of fortune in the Foundation) though he was mooted entity. The Khartoum government swiftly ‘gross feats of imagination’. Without a substantive as a mediator in the Great Lakes conflicts. Again, reinstated Mohamed Haroun: ill defined self- UN monitoring mission in eastern Congo, neither that looks improbable following revelations that determination for the Nuba was preferable to side’s claims can be tested effectively and last his security advisor, Zakayo Cheruiyot, was using including them in the south with its powerful drive year’s political agreements will come under government offices to hide an accused génocidaire, for independence. increasing pressure Félicien Kabuga.

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