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Allies & Adversaries Proceedings of the Futures Working Group Edited By: J. Amber Scherer and John P. Jarvis THE FUTURE OF LAW ENFORCEMENT: A CONSIDERATION OF POTENTIAL ALLIES AND ADVERSARIES VOLUME 7 of the Proceedings of the Futures Working Group Edited by J. Amber Scherer and John P. Jarvis 2 Acknowledgements The Futures Working Group and the authors who contributed to this volume wish to thank the following individuals for their significant contributions to this project: FBI Behavioral Science Unit Arielle Nielsen, BSU Visiting Scholar Hayley Cleary, and other staff of the FBI Training and Development Division who provided significant assistance with the production of this volume. Their efforts included, but were not limited to, additional editing, organization, and formatting of this volume. Their generous efforts and sincere commitment to assisting with this project made it possible in its current form. Given this volume, in large measure represents a conference proceeding, any printing or editing errors that may remain are inadvertent and individual contributors should be contacted directly for clarification if needed. Suggested Citation: FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES IN POLICING: A CONSIDERATION OF POTENTIAL ALLIES AND ADVERSARIES The Future of Law Enforcement: A Consideration of Potential Allies and Adversaries. Volume 7: Proceedings of the Futures Working Group. Quantico, VA 2010. Release Date: September 30, 2011 Biographical information pertaining to individuals can be found at http://futuresworkinggroup.cos.ucf.edu. The opinions and statements expressed throughout this volume are those of the individual authors and contributors and should not be considered and endorsement or a reflection of the official position of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the Society of Police Futurists International, or any other institution, or organization for any policy, program, or service. 3 The Future of Law Enforcement: A Consideration of Potential Allies & Adversaries Table of Contents Acknowledgments……………………………………………………………..... 3 Word from the Chairperson:………………………………………………….. 7 Money Makes Friends and Enemies…………………………………………... 8 William Maki & Richard Myers DEMOGRAPHICS Issues Facing Law Enforcement Concerning the Elderly………………….… 15 Al Youngs & Hayley Cleary Relationships and Residence: Effects on Coppery…………………………... 24 Bud Levin Immigration and Crime: Examining the Past, Predicting the Future……… 36 Lin Huff-Corzine, Tina Jaeckle, & Jay Corzine Criminal Organizations: Traditional Adversaries and New Threats……….. 47 Nicholas E. Libby & Jay Corzine 4 LOCAL, REGIONAL, GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTS Adversaries and Allies: What is in Your Agency Culture?.............................. 62 Marshall Jones & Jim Reynolds Neighborhood and Net-Centric Policing: Preparing and Training for Alliances…………………………………………………………………………. 76 Michael E. Buerger Networks and other Urban Myths…………………………………………..... 87 Michael E. Buerger Intelligence in Law Enforcement: From Need to Know to Need to Share… 103 Karen E. Gardner Instability: Regional Issues in a Global Context……………………………. 119 Mary O‘Dea COMMUNICATIONS Interoperability and Information Sharing………………………………….. 125 Sean P. Varano & Thomas J. Dover Communities as Allies………………………………………………………… 141 Joseph Schafer, Sean Varano, & Nicholas E. Libby Policing Partnerships…………………………………………………………. 151 Greg S. Weaver & Toby M. Finnie 5 Getting from Here to There: Creating a Futures Orientation Using CIAPRA……………………………………………………………..…………. 161 Michael E. Buerger TECHNOLOGY Technology Update 2011: Progenitors of the Symbiotic Age…………….… 168 John Jackson Adversary Weaponry to 2025………………………………………………… 179 Robert J. Bunker VooDoo Science and Nonlethal Weapons……………………………………. 191 Charles ―Sid‖ Heal, Viktor Bovbjerg, & John Kenny Digital Vigilantes: Potential Allies or Adversaries?........................................ 197 Earl Moulton Emerging Digital Technologies and the Implications of Online Social Networking for Law Enforcement …………………………………...……… 209 Thomas J. Dover & Toby M. Finnie Powering the Future: The Energy Problem and Prospective Solutions….. 226 John Jackson 6 A WORD FROM THE CHAIRMAN Since its inception, the Futures Working Group, an ongoing collaboration between the Society of Police Futurists International (PFI) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation, has assembled numerous bodies of work relating to the future and policing. Many of these can be found at http://futuresworkinggroup.cos.ucf.edu. The entries in the present volume were initiated at a FWG meeting held in St. Louis, Missouri in the fall of 2008. I wish to thank Dr. Hayley Cleary and all of the attendees for making this meeting and endeavor fruitful in the short time we had to discuss and outline these contributions. In doing so, a group of police managers and futurists as well as academics and military personnel gathered to consider the potential allies and adversaries that may impact the future challenges and opportunities that law enforcement may experience. The goal of this endeavor was to draw upon past experiences, recent research and publications, and lessons learned to examine various dimensions and associated dynamics that may assist in defining allies for law enforcement to leverage as collaborators and partners as policing in the 21st century unfolds. Conversely, some attendees also contemplated the growing and changing challenges, or adversaries, that law enforcement is and will experience alongside these other developments. The resulting perspectives regarding concerns for building allies and confronting adversaries while striving to protect public safety in a global 21st century are what is contained herein. At that time, we could not imagine a timelier topic in light of the potential necessities that would become realities in the economic difficulties that the world has experienced since this meeting. To be sure, much has been written about these topics; however, little has concerned itself with these dynamics from a law enforcement perspective. As discussions of this topic progressed, it became clear that many possible futures exist with regard to this very important area. This volume is an attempt to consider some of them and, further, to articulate strategies to bring about what futurists refer to as ―preferred futures.‖ As you read the entries contained herein, remember that the goal of futurists is to make others think. As such, some entries are quite detailed exploring various aspects of the complexities of forging partnerships and developing strategies to confront new crimes and criminals. In contrast, other entries are brief observations of what we believe contributes to the discussion of emerging trends and potential future threats that police must be empowered to confront. All of these entries serve to remind us of the old, new, challenging, and at times, disconcerting ideas that the future often holds. You may agree with some authors and disagree with others. You may even feel somewhat unnerved by what has been written. Often considerations of the future breed these emotive responses. These words vary little from previous introductions to prior FWG volumes, but that is because this volume, in common with its predecessors, reflects a fundamental goal: ―ultimately, it is our fervent desire to devise ways to motivate individuals to create their own preferred future….for yourself, for your agency, and for the communities you serve.‖ That goal continues to be reflected here. We hope this volume and the efforts that went into it are helpful toward that end. John P. Jarvis, Ph.D. Senior Scientist-Chief Criminologist Behavioral Science Unit, FBI Academy, Quantico, VA Chairman, Futures Working Group 7 Money Makes Friends and Enemies William R. Maki1 and Richard Myers2 Even though the uncertainties of the new economy are becoming better defined, managing a police agency is still as difficult as ever, just with some new twists. The ―bubble” has characterized the economic climate of the past few years and is likely to continue. The resulting damage to selected areas of our economy but relative health of others is resulting in pockets of deprivation for some, while others remain relatively functional. Some communities are devastated by economic shifts and others merely inconvenienced. Globalization continues to create change for communities as jobs and industries, also known as taxpayers, move to more favorable political, regulatory and economic climates. The police executive must be prepared to confront problems involving decreased funding with a resulting decrease in service capabilities. While branching out into increased service opportunities for the community is appropriate during bountiful times, identification and prioritization of core services to preserve during lean times becomes the task at hand. The trend towards downsizing has been ongoing for several years. Traditional federal funding has steadily been drying up as political priorities change but also as federal budget deficits rocket past previous highs. Most states that provided funding for policing are finding their budget resources are shrinking at the same time state and local agencies are competing more for what‗s left. Many local governments are finding themselves facing lowered revenues from their traditional tax sources. A few years ago it was remarkable that the number of officers on the streets was declining but today that norm is pervasive. Consider the fact that despite the increased mission of Homeland Security, there are fewer police in the U.S. today than the
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