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Assessment of Transportation Indicators for Northern Canada

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Assessment of Transportation Indicators for Northern Canada Assessment of transportation indicators for northern Canada Report presented to by Hugo Asselin, Ph.D. June 2013 Table of contents Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 3 Defining the North .............................................................................................................. 5 Redefining the North......................................................................................................... 10 Transportation indicators for northern Canada ................................................................. 11 Connectivity ...................................................................................................................... 13 Further research needs ...................................................................................................... 14 References ......................................................................................................................... 16 Appendix 1. Comparison of frameworks of transportation criteria. ................................. 19 2 Introduction The North has always been central to the territorial representations of Canadians (Lasserre 1997, Grace 2007). Canada is one of just a handful of countries bordered by the Arctic ocean. In recent years, the North has gained considerable political attention because of predictions that the northern passage might soon be open year-long (Lasserre 2007). In addition, the North is a considerable source of natural resources, including minerals, oil & gas, and wood, and the federal and provincial governments have published strategic northern development plans to seize the opportunity (Asselin 2011). Northern development implies important challenges due to immensity, remoteness, and low population density, most of which resides in aboriginal communities. Furthermore, cold temperatures, strong winds, frequent fog, permafrost, variable tide amplitude and water depth, and timing of ice formation are major constraints in the North (Warnock Hersey International Limited, 1970). Climate change is already severely impacting northern regions (e.g., Payette et al. 2004), increasing uncertainty (Lévesque 2009). Development necessitates transportation, and challenges are also important in this regard in the North (Slipchenko 1987), and thus particular transportation indicators are needed. However, the elaboration of a transportation plan for the Canadian North calls for a clear definition of what exactly is the North. Previous work has been done on defining the North and part of this work is relevant to transportation issues. To fulfill its mandate in support of an efficient, safe, secure and environmentally responsible northern transportation system, Transport Canada has to address changing requirements with regards to northern transportation. Supporting sustainable socioeconomic development requires performance metrics that take into account the peculiarities of the northern context. 3 This report explores the available literature on transportation indicators in northern Canada. More specifically, the objectives of this literature review are to (1) provide a status update on existing definitions of the North; (2) identify the transportation indicators specific to Canada's North, if any; (3) address the concept of connectivity in the North; (4) advise on further research needed to improve the development of transportation indicators for northern Canada. 4 Defining the North Before the seminal work of Louis-Edmond Hamelin (1976), little had been done to define the North in Canada, despite the fact that several research projects had been realized in northern regions. Hamelin coined the term "nordicity" and developed an index to measure it, based on 10 variables: latitude (°N); summer heath (# days warmer than 5.6 °C); annual cold (# degree-days below 0°C); types of ice (permafrost [continuous thick, continuous thin, discontinuous]; gelisol [during 9 months, 4 months, or less than 1 month]); total precipitations (mm); natural vegetation cover (desert, tundra, woodland, forest); accessibility by means other than air (no service, seasonal service, year-round service); air services (charter, regular); population (# permanent residents); and degree of economic activity (no production, hunting-gathering, small-scale agriculture, large enterprises, large-scale agriculture, multiservice regional center). For a specific location, each variable is given a value between 0 and 1001. The sum total of the values for all 10 variables (between 0 and 1000) indicates whether a location is in the Middle North (200- 499), Far North (500-799), or Extreme North (800-1000). The first version of Hamelin's framework also included a Near North, which was subsequently discarded. Here are a few examples of locations with their respective nordicity index (as calculated by Hamelin (1976)): north pole (1000); Alert (878, Extreme North); Resolute (775, Far North); Inukjuak (545, Far North); Churchill (450, Middle North); Goose Bay (218, Middle North); Fort McMurray (192; Pre-North); Timmins (64, Pre-North). Among the 10 variables composing Hamelin's nordicity index, only 2 are directly related to transportation issues. First, accessibility by means other than air. Locations that are never accessible by other means than air are given a value of 100 for that variable. Locations where accessibility by other means is possible for part of the year are given values between 40 and 80, whereas locations accessible all year by means other than air are given values between 0 and 20. The second variable directly related to transportation issues is the frequency of air services (once a day or more, twice a week, every week, 1 Details on the calculation of the nordicity index are provided in Hamelin (1976). 5 every two weeks, etc.). An important consideration is however missing from Hamelin's air transportation variables: regularity. Indeed, fog or other weather-related issues often prevent planes from landing or taking off, thus disrupting the transportation schedule (Fournier and Richard 1978). Hamelin's framework also does not take into account the presence (or absence) and the quality of infrastructure for marine resupply, as well as the frequency of marine resupply. Some variables in Hamelin's index are indirectly related to transportation issues. For example, variables measuring temperature, precipitations and ice have impacts on infrastructure costs and maintenance. Hamelin's index includes two broad types of variables : environmental (6 variables) and socioeconomic (4 variables). The environmental variables depict (directly or indirectly) the harsh conditions prevailing in northern areas compared to the temperate locations typical of southern Canada: latitude, summer heath, annual cold, types of ice, total precipitations, and natural vegetation cover. It should be noted that several of these variables are strongly correlated. For example, temperature and precipitations both decrease with latitude. Ice conditions are correlated to temperature and precipitations. Vegetation cover is also determined to a large extent by climate variables. Not taking into account the strong correlation between the variables composing the index is equivalent to counting the same things more than once. As environmental variables are already more numerous in the index than socioeconomic variables (6 vs. 4), their weight in the final nordicity value is even more disproportionate. The four socioeconomic variables are accessibility by means other than air, air services, population, and degree of economic activity. Although some of these variables are probably correlated, the correlation level is likely weaker than for environmental variables. Important socioeconomic variables are not included in the index, for example distance from the nearest major urban centre, land use by aboriginal communities, or availability of education and health services and infrastructure. 6 Following Hamelin's work, little has been done with regards to using multicriteria definitions of the North. Several organisms have opted to draw a line between South and North on the basis of a unique criterion. The two criteria used most often are geographic: latitude (e.g., Government of Canada [60 °N], National Energy Board [60 °N], Walter & Duncan Gordon Foundation [60 °N west of Hudson's Bay and 55 °N east of Hudson's Bay], Government of Quebec [49 °N]), and the southern limit of discontinuous permafrost (e.g., Northern Scientific Training Program, International Polar Year). Other organizations have rather chosen to draw the line based on socioeconomic variables (e.g., Conference Board of Canada, Council of the North of the Anglican Church). Morissonneau (1978) reviewed historical changes to what was considered to be Northern Quebec, before focusing on the Abitibi-Témiscamingue administrative region, which he clearly identified as North, despite it not scoring high enough on Hamelin's scale to be part of the North. In fact, Abitibi-Témiscamingue was considered as part of the Near North in the first version of Hamelin's framework, but was later considered to have underwent "denordication" following the principle that, as indicator values change over time, the definition of North is dynamic instead of static. Graham (1990) published a review of single-criterion and multicriteria indices of the North, in Canada and in Russia, focusing on the indices of Burns et al. (1975), Hamelin (1976), and Brunelle
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