Bled Strategic Times

Official Gazette of the Bled Strategic Forum 30 August – 3 September 2019

 bledstrategicforum.org P bledstrategicforum N Bled Strategic Forum  Bled Strategic Forum  BledStrategicForum  @BledStratForum, #BSF2019 @BledStratForum  [email protected] Content The Western Balkans: from “power keg of Europe” to a Transatlantic perspective By Philip T. Reeker 2 The bell at Bled welcomes you! By Dr. Miro Cerar 3 Cooperation is realpolitik By Walter Kemp 4 Europeans must keep their eyes on the long-term challenges By Dr. Robin Niblett 5 Slovenia: saving you time By Alenka Bratušek 6 We need to prepare for a world in 2050 Interview with Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid 7 Shaping the future. Bearing responsibility. By Marjan Šarec 7 Winning the ’20s: a leadership We need to prepare for a Shaping the future. agenda for the next decade By Martin Reeves 8 world in 2050 Bearing responsibiity. A clean, well-lighted place… By Majlinda Bregu 10 President Kaljulaid, who had On the national level Slovenia is Regional cooperation for Euro- many words of praise for Slovenia pledged to sustainability. On the pean integration and sustainable development and Bled, expects the forum to EU level, we will be a future ori- By Roberto Antonione 11 Whither Europe? bring an in-depth debate on sus- ented Presidency, well aware of By Charles Powell 12 tainable development and answers modern challenges, which sees Building the digital economy that benefits everyone on how to prepare for a further the European Union as a glob- By Josko Mrndze 14 Earth population rise and prevent al trendsetter. EU ambitions for Creating ‘virtous cycles’ By Andrea Illy 15 the planet from suffering. the future must be to enshrine Are we really ready to risk our / An interview with Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid standards of sustainability as the own future? conducted by STA. By Dr. Janez Potočnik 16 only future oriented response to Gender equality in the Euro- eptember's visit comes after President Kaljulaid already at- the traditional as well as mod- Mediterranean tended the Slovenia-hosted June summit of the Three Seas By Nasser Kamel 18 S Initiative. Kaljulaid will couple the attendance at the Bled fo- ern challenges. If each of us also A world of rules or a world rum with a state visit to the country. strives in this direction, we might of power "The issue of resources is becoming more and more important for By Iztok Mirošič 20 the whole world and Europe has been a leader in these discussions. manage to solve the puzzle on the How much future for our past? I hope we can find a model of sustainable development in Europe By Tobias Flessenkemper 22 which would also be economically more feasible than the previous or global level. On democracy and its opponents. current industrial one," she said. / By Marjan Šarec, Primer Minister of the Republic of Notes from Southeastern Europe Kaljulaid is confident that "while Europe would be leading in find- Slovenia By Vedran Džihić 23 ing the solutions and definitely benefiting from them, the rest of the The promises and perils of world would simply follow, because these solutions should be actual- Big Data ly also commercially feasible, cheaper than the current alternatives". By Jolene Creighton 24 "So I really hope that we will discuss how to save the resources, Learning and teaching in the how to be prepared for the world, let's say in 2050 when there will be era of Artificial Intelligence even more people on our planet and make sure that our planet will By Dr. Jernej Pikalo 25 not suffer." Central and Eastern Europe The Estonian president noted that the digitalisation of society, a at the heart of the EU field where Estonia is a leader, is part of the same debate. By Katja Geršak 26 "Let's face it - 15% of electricity spent today is spent on the in- The politics of migration ternet. But new technologies are not only consumers of resources. By Camino Mortera-Cortez 28 The internet and new technologies are a huge opportunity to save Youth perspectives on a social resources." and sustainable Union "We for instance don't need to travel so much, we can have con- By Giorgio Trichilo 30 ferences over the net, we can work over the net and don't have to travel to work any more," illustrated Kaljulaid, arguing the current living habits will be changed profoundly by digitalisation and new Bled Strategic Times Rethinking reality. Official Gazette of the Bled Strategic Forum technologies. Issue date: 2 September 2019 "Jobs will be geographically neutral, so people will choose where henever one gets the opportunity to rethink reality, one Publisher: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of they live according to the societies they like to live in, which means a also gets the opportunity to rethink actions. Bled Strate- Slovenia, Prešernova cesta 25, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia, and Centre for European Perspective, Grajska cesta 1, new kind of competition between states." W gic Forum definitely is one of such opportunities. Grasp- 1234 Loka pri Mengšu, Slovenia Turning to Estonia's digitalisation experience, Kaljulaid stressed ing this challenge, being aware of it and making the most of the dis- Editor-in-Chief: Katja Geršak Design: David Fartek there were no universal recipes, with things playing out differently cussions with leaders, decision makers and thinkers from Europe DTP and Prepress: Premedia, Andrej Juvan in individual countries, since each is an individual culture, meaning and beyond that beset the brains of the participants, is a privilege. Printing: Grafične ideje, Alenka Potočnik Circulation: 2000 copies each needs to find its own solutions. The 14th Bled Strategic Forum once again underlines and out- Still, once a country embarks on the path of digitalisation of pub- lines what is most pertinent, and most challenging. Unfortunately, #BSF2019 lic services, "people will expect you to keep the level of services up this year, we cannot escape the fact that the most urgent issue is the www.bledstrategicforum.org Continued on page 7 Continued on page 7 The Western Balkans: from ‘powder keg of Europe’ to a Transatlantic perspective The Western Balkans are an integral part of a shared vision of a ‘strong and free Europe’ and needs to be supported on the path of Euro-Atlantic integration. / By Philip T. Reeker, Acting Assistant Secretary, Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs, U.S. Department of State

his year, the Transatlantic commu- to use loaded, pejorative terms like “powder nationalistic and cultural barriers that had tegic industries through its “17+1” and “Belt nity marks the 101st anniversary keg” or “balkanization.” They believe that, held the region back for decades. They paved and Road” initiatives, we need to increase T of the end of World War I; the 74th rather than pursuing an upward trajectory of the way toward North Macedonia becoming engagement in the region and re-energize anniversary of the end of World War II; the stability and prosperity, the countries of the the 30th NATO Ally and joining the EU. The partnerships with Western Balkan countries. 70th anniversary of the North Atlantic Trea- region are condemned to a vicious and end- Prespa Agreement was arguably the most These countries need to know what they ty Organization (NATO); the 30th anniver- less cycle marked by poverty, zero-sum com- significant purely diplomatic achievement in will get—and what they stand to lose—from sary of the fall of the Berlin Wall and the petition, nationalist resurgence, democratic the Balkans since the Dayton Peace Accords. the “deals” Moscow and Beijing peddle. The collapse of Communism in Central Europe; backsliding, corruption, and conflict. It stands as proof that, with real leadership, United States will continue to offer these and the 20th anniversary of the end of the This does not have to be the case, as re- persistence, and compromise, even the most countries a reciprocal and fair trading rela- Kosovo conflict. It is also deeply rooted historical and tionship and is working to boost U.S. invest- the 15th anniversary of the cultural conflicts can be ment in the region through new tools like “big bang” enlargements of Balkan integration with Western institutions overcome. the Development Finance Corporation. the European Union (EU) is in the political, security, and economic In 2016, Montenegro Strengthening the Transatlantic alliance and NATO in 2004, and the thwarted a brazen coup at- to preserve and defend our shared values, 10th anniversary of NATO’s interests of the countries in the region, the tempt aimed at undermin- including individual liberty, representative 2009 enlargement. These EU, and the United States. ing Montenegrin democra- democracy, media freedom, free markets, anniversaries are a reminder cy. This coup attempt was and the rule of law is a top strategic priority of the enduring strength of only one prong of Russia’s for the United States in a new era of geopo- the West, but also that the work of fulfilling cent actions by Balkan leaders demonstrate. effort to destabilize the country; Russia also litical competition. The close collaboration our shared vision of a “strong and free Eu- In defending the landmark Prespa Agree- unleashed a pervasive anti-NATO disinfor- between the United States, the EU, and the rope” remains incomplete. We have come a ment, former Greek Foreign Minister Niko- mation campaign to thwart Montenegro’s Organization for Security and Cooperation long way, but the work isn’t done yet. The laos Kotzias said, “History should be a school NATO accession. On May 9, a Montenegrin in Europe (OSCE) in the Western Balkans is Western Balkans are an integral part of this and not a prison.” The Western Balkans are court found two Russian GRU officers guilty a shining example of this partnership. Our shared vision, and we must redouble efforts not the same as they were 100 or even 15 of attempted terrorism during the 2016 coup work together to help Western Balkan gov- to support their peoples’ Euro-Atlantic aspi- years ago. The February 2018 EU Western attempt, laying bare Moscow’s blatant at- ernments accelerate reforms and strengthen rations. Balkans Strategy reaffirmed the conclusion tempt to destabilize an independent Europe- their democracies is hardening their soci- Jim Leach, a former diplomat and U.S. reached at the Thessaloniki Summit in 2003 an country. The open and transparent trial eties against malign external influence; cre- Congressman from Iowa, once quipped, that there is a clear “European perspective” represents an important step forward for the ating better, stronger, global partners; and “The only thing the Balkans exports is his- for all six Western Balkan aspirants to join rule of law and is an example of Montene- ensuring long-term stability, security, and tory.” Outsiders sometimes characterize the EU, based on firm, established criteria. gro’s resiliency. prosperity for their citizens. This important the Western Balkans as a region where the This reflects our shared strategic goal. Bal- Western Balkan countries should contin- work also prepares these countries for future past remains very much present, and, in- kan integration with Western institutions ue to advance reforms that will draw them membership in Euro-Atlantic institutions deed, longstanding geopolitical, economic, is in the political, security, and economic closer to Western standards, particularly in like NATO and the EU, in accordance with and cultural forces at play in Southeastern interests of the countries in the region, the strengthening judicial independence and the the wishes of their people. Europe at the start of the twentieth centu- EU, and the United States. There has been rule of law, increasing anti-corruption ef- It is these shared interests that motivate ry have endured or become resurgent. The measurable progress. Croatia joined the EU forts, bolstering media freedom, liberalizing U.S. support for Albania and North Mace- Western Balkans remains fragmented – po- in 2013. Montenegro and Serbia have made labor markets, privatizing or modernizing donia’s EU membership bids. The European litically, ethnically, and culturally – with high significant strides in their accession negotia- state-owned enterprises, and boosting cross Commission’s May 29 assessment confirmed unemployment and lagging economic and tions. With hard work, the European Com- border trade. We would also welcome steps both countries met the conditions set out at infrastructure development. Its strategic lo- mission said EU aspirant countries could by Western Balkan countries to advance re- the June 2018 European Council Summit to cation and vulnerabilities have made the re- join the Union by 2025. We call upon all the gional energy security by completing proj- open accession negotiations. It is especial- gion a critical front in increasing geopolitical countries in the region to pursue this goal by ects such as the Krk Island LNG terminal, ly critical that North Macedonia receive a competition for positive influence in Europe. accelerating their efforts. the Interconnector Bulgaria-Serbia, and positive decision to open accession negotia- The unfortunate view in some quarters of Courageous and forward-looking lead- the “Kosova e Re” power plant. In the face tions in October. The Commission cited the the continent seems to be that the Western ers like North Macedonia’s Prime Minister of ongoing Russian malign influence cam- Prespa Agreement and North Macedonia’s Balkan countries are in Europe, but not of Zoran Zaev and former Greek Prime Minis- paigns aimed at destabilizing the region, as bilateral agreement with Bulgaria as exam- Europe. Subscribers to that view continue ter Alexis Tsipras were able to break through well as China’s increased investment in stra- ples of “how to strengthen good neighborly relations for the entire region.” Continu- ing to stall North Macedonia’s enlargement progress will undermine the courageous compromises these leaders made for peace and progress, which serve as inspiration to all those who strive to secure a common Eu- ropean future. Before and after the EU decision in Oc- tober, the United States will continue to urge Skopje and Tirana to press ahead with po- litical and economic reforms that strengthen rule of law and anti-corruption efforts and cement democratic governance. In North Macedonia, we are encouraging the govern- ment and opposition to resolve differences over the future of the Special Prosecutor’s Office before the mandate of the Chief Spe- cial Prosecutor expires. In Albania, the United States is working with our European partners in pressing for continued progress on judicial reforms; re-establishment of a quorum in the constitutional court, follow- ing vetting; and electoral reforms based on the ODIHR recommendations. The United States likewise strongly sup- ports the normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia. At the highest levels, the United States has made clear that there

2 Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 is a historic opportunity for Kosovo and Serbia to achieve a comprehensive nor- malization agreement. Ideally, this deal The bell at Bled would center on mutual recognition. We are here to listen and to help. How- ever, until the parties revive the stalled EU Dialogue negotiations, the chances welcomes you! of reaching an agreement are nil. Both Belgrade and Pristina have an opportu- Sustainable development is our key priority and we need to incorporate nity to refocus on their strategic interest it into every pore of our society. Sustainability starts with us. by removing barriers to negotiations, refraining from engaging in provocative / By Dr. Miro Cerar, Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Slovenia actions, and returning to the negotiating table in a spirit of flexibility and readi- hen Slovenia launched the Bled respect for human rights are not an append- already happening. The Western Balkans is a ness to compromise. To build confi- Strategic Forum way back in age or consequence of development, they are geostrategic arena, and the EU cannot afford dence, we would welcome a decision by W 2006, we were aiming for some- the fundamentals of any serious debate on to lose. Kosovo to suspend the tariffs imposed thing valuable, different and relevant, not climate change. Migration flows are one of the issues on Serbian and Bosnian imports, and a just for our foreign policy, but for the wider where the EU will stand or fall. Nobody is move by Serbia to suspend its campaign world. Slovenia's most important natural under the illusion that migration is not a to delegitimize Kosovo in the interna- We had the enthusiasm and appeal of a environment is the European Union! serious issue and consequentially a genera- tional community. Kosovo, of course, new-born country that wanted to leave its Do not get me wrong – I am not preach- tional one, but we need to look at it in a com- is headed towards elections in the fall mark on the global map of policy ideas. In ing some cheap euro-centrism to our global prehensive and objective manner. Of course, and Serbia will likely have parliamentary today’s highly connected world, there are friends and competitors, but the fact is that this is a security question, but in equal terms elections next spring. The parties must many ways one can contribute to common Slovenia feels the EU to be its natural sur- it is also a question of demography and op- work to navigate the political calendar efforts. Because we are all connected, we al- roundings, its habitat. This is why the state portunities. In solving these issues, Slovenia, and find their way back to the negotiat- ways felt that the only bell at our only island, of the European Union will be at the centre as a Schengen country, respects European ing table. There is no other path forward. here at Bled, should resonate globally and of discussions during the forum. The newly norms and values. As one of my fellow for- As work to normalize their bilateral peal for all of you. elected EU leaders need to show determi- eign ministers said: you first need to control relations proceeds, parallel work to meet Our mission statement, our key priority nation and responsibility during a time of your borders – to decide how open they are. these countries’ reform goals in areas and the reason why every September we in- growing uncertainties in the global arena, like rule of law, judicial independence, vite more than a thousand participants from Brexit and challenging internal issues. When talking about geostrategic ques- media freedom, and democratic gover- all over the world to join us here at Bled is This is why we need political wisdom, tions, we must mention a gradual but irre- nance should continue. Serbia – indeed one concept in two words: sustainable devel- leadership and European solutions, which versible reshaping of power in the interna- all of us – must remain wary of persistent opment. will also include countries with prospects for tional arena, which will have long-lasting Russian attempts to influence Serbian Although this idea is shared and support- EU membership. consequences for our common future. Mul- government actions in a manner and di- ed by almost everybody in the international The “B” in BSF of course stands for . . . tilateralism is in danger. rection inconsistent with Serbia’s Trans- community, be it individual countries, re- Bled. Being bold about the Balkans and its For countries like Slovenia, a functioning atlantic aspirations. It is important, too, gions, governments, corporations, or citi- EU enlargement have always been a special multilateral framework is essential in order that the EU no longer delay extending zens, we are still very far from translating feature at the Bled Strategic Forum. It is in to safeguard and guarantee our sustainable visa-free travel to Kosovo citizens. The these two words into practice – because ev- Slovenia’s vital and strategic interest for the and secure livelihood. However, this does European Commission twice confirmed ery idea comes at a cost. Are we ready as a countries of the region to achieve irrevers- not apply to small countries only – even the Kosovo has met all prerequisites, and society to pay this cost, which at the end of ible stability and prosperity and become biggest powers rely so heavily on multilater- both the Commission and the European the day will be far less than the cost of not members of the EU as soon as possible. We alism that by thwarting it we thwart the des- Parliament expressed clear support for doing anything? Climate change is not some- are aware that in the current geopolitical tiny of the world as we know it. visa liberalization. Reliability is a two- thing that you can push into some box or context, with major powers seriously weigh- There are many more challenges and way street. some region and leave there – climate change ing up the region again, enlargement will be questions that you will discuss at this edi- Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is is and will be affecting everybody, including under immense pressure and the need to de- tion of the Bled Strategic Forum. Looking another urgent priority and source of you and me. We are all connected. liver on the reforms of candidate countries at the impressive list of speakers, panelists challenges for regional stability. We are This is why we need to talk about the re- will be greater than ever. and important guests, I am very proud that pleased that in December 2018, NATO sponsibility to put words into practice. It is However, when the region delivers, the the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, together Allies agreed to accept BiH’s first Annu- not going to work if the burden of going sus- EU should also be brave and daring enough with the Centre for European Perspective, al National Program (ANP), when the tainable and green falls on the shoulders of to move forward. A negative decision re- was able to combine all of these in a two- country chooses to submit it. Moving those who are already struggling now to cope garding enlargement can have a negative day agenda. If you find a moment to go to down the path to Euro-Atlantic integra- with the changes in the globalised world. cascading effect all across the Western Bal- the island and ring the bell for luck, please tion is BiH’s best hope for a stable and We have so many comprehensive deals, kans. Yes, the EU should be strict, but first do not forget that we are all connected – we prosperous future and all the tangible from Kyoto to Paris. What we need is the will with ourselves – and we should stick to our create our common happiness only together, benefits this process will bring its cit- to implement the deal – to incorporate sus- promises and pledges when the time comes. respectfully engaged. So, let the bell at Bled izens. To achieve this worthy goal, the tainability into every pore of society. What we need is a region that is reform- ring for you! United States will continue to support That is why this year at the Bled Strategic ing, that is developing and adopting Europe- Only through diversity of thought can we the country’s leaders in undertaking Forum we will not only discuss the need to an values and norms. It will be very difficult arrive at comprehensive and viable solutions necessary reforms such as improving go sustainable, but also propose clear ideas to reignite the European passion among the for our common future. Welcome to Slove- transparency, reforming the judiciary, how to act accordingly. We can not discuss citizens of the region if we blow out the can- nia, where discussion and debate are valued, privatizing state-owned enterprises, and clean water without the right to it – and that dle of prospects for EU membership and and different opinions are shared and cher- tackling corruption. is why Slovenia has enshrined this right in its hope. Other actors, other players are more ished. • Despite the complex challenges fac- Constitution. Democracy, the rule of law and than ready to fill this void. In a way, this is ing Western Balkans nations the United States is optimistic about the future of the region. The Western Balkans has tak- en significant, difficult steps forward in recent years. Brave leaders are disprov- ing the critics who say the region will never escape its past. The people of the Western Balkans have firmly chosen to join the West. Certainly, this path ahead is long and difficult, and it will demand steady and consistent leadership to make decisions – some of which may be tem- porarily unpopular – that align with their countries’ long-term, strategic goals, not short-term, politically expedient tactics. This is what citizens in Balkan nations have made clear they expect, and this is what is required to firmly anchor the Western Balkans into the Western com- munity of nations to the benefit of the region, the EU, and the United States. We are here to help the countries of the region build a brighter and more secure future for all of their citizens. The road is long and steep and at times rocky. But, the destination is worth the journey. •

Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 3 Cooperation is realpolitik In an inter-connected world, going-it-alone is not an option. It is in the self-interest of states to work together. / By Walter Kemp, Head of Strategic Policy Support Unit, Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe

he world seems to be coming togeth- That is why rules have been developed Cynics would say that these promises hostile actions that trigger tit-for-tat retalia- er and falling apart at the same time. in the international system: to create pre- have been broken and that wars in Kosovo, tion, a virtuous circle of small positive steps T People are connected like never be- dictability, fairness, and to reduce the risk Georgia and Ukraine have demonstrated the could build trust and confidence. fore: information, money, and tourists move of violent conflict. These rules were not limits of cooperative security. So what do we want? Integration or quickly. Supply chains and financial markets dreamed up by political theorists: they were But maybe the mess that we find our- fragmentation? An eye for an eye and the span the globe. But the openness that gen- developed, in large part, by hard-nosed selves in at the moment is a reflection of law of the jungle, or good-neighborly re- erates prosperity also creates vulnerability practitioners who had lived through war and what happens when rules are broken rather lations based on international law? A beg- to criminal, terrorist, and than the weakness of the rules gar-thy-neighbor approach where treaties cyber attacks, pandemics, themselves. and principles are broken and might equals and large groups of people Indeed, a rules-based sys- right is a sure path to breaking up the in- on the move. This creates a You cannot be off the grid of tem becomes all the more ternational system that has been developed feeling of threat and fear of international relations. important with the return of since the last world war. In a world of nu- “the other”, and the future. geopolitics. Since states are clear weapons, that could, quite literally, lead This is fertile ground for part of a system, to reduce to a dead end. The alternative is to seek to those – like the populists, friction and manage relations manage relations between states, regulate jihadists and nativists – who promise simple wanted to save future generations from ex- there have to be rules. common spaces, and work together for the (ideally homegrown) solutions. periencing something similar. Furthermore, common rules are vital for sake of common interests, based on common In such a complex and dynamic environ- Indeed, it was almost exactly seventy-five dealing with threats and challenges that tran- rules. Surely this is in the interest of all states ment, states should be working together. But years ago – in the autumn of 1944 – that ne- scend borders: like cyber, terrorism, and or- and peoples. the end of America’s unipolar dominance, gotiators from China, the United States, the ganized crime. Indeed, cooperation is more Therefore, for the sake of survival, secu- the rise of China, and a more assertive Russia United Kingdom and the Soviet Union came likely to be found in dealing with spaces and rity or power, cooperation is realpolitik. • have led states to jockey for position in a new together in Dumbarton Oaks in order to re- challenges that are currently less regulated . world order. For some, this means assert- store international peace and security, and to – like lethal automated weapons systems, ing a new regional leadership role. Others develop a blueprint for what would become cyber attacks on critical infrastructure, and demonstrate the symptoms of post-imperial the United Nations. artificial intelligence. phantom limb syndrome: seeking geograph- The worldview that was ical aggrandizement or a greater role in the enshrined in the UN Char- world based on nostalgia for the past. ter was one where states – on The result is an international system in the basis of sovereign equali- Those who espouse a go-it-alone, do-it-yourself flux. There are very few status quo powers. ty – would work together for Competition, even conflict, trumps cooper- peace, develop friendly rela- approach may spin an attractive narrative, but it is ation. It turns out that we have not reached tions, and resolve any disputes fantasiepolitik, not realpolitik. the end of history, and the world is not flat. in conformity with the prin- Geopolitics is back. ciples of justice and interna- In a dangerous and unpredictable world, tional law. Pie in the sky? governments need to defend their territory, A similar logic was at the heart of the Perhaps working together to regulate and their sovereignty, people, and national in- European Coal and Steel Community. Af- deal with these issues will build trust in oth- terests. For some, this means building walls, ter two devastating wars within thirty years, er areas, like enhancing military to military keeping out foreigners, and strengthening French foreign minister Robert Schuman – relations through confidence- and securi- borders. This is nothing new: leaders have among others - proposed to unite the pro- ty-building measures, and or even arms con- been doing this for centuries. duction of French and German coal and steel trol. As a result, instead of a negative spiral of But globalization has advanced to such under a common High Authority as a first a point that no state – not even great pow- step towards a federation of Europe. As he ers – can pull up the drawbridge and hope said in May 1950, such a step would make to survive. You cannot be off the grid of in- it plain that “any war between France and ternational relations. No country, however Germany becomes not merely unthinkable, powerful, can stand alone. Like it or not, we but materially impossible”. This Community are all inter-connected. developed into the European Union which – As Italian President, Sergio Mattarella, for all its faults – has contributed to peace, put it, the alternative to multilateralism is stability and prosperity for the past seventy only unilateralism, which deludes itself that years. it can live in splendid isolation, in the ab- Can cooperation also work among sence of rules and in the affirmation of exclu- states that are less like-minded? sive interests. A world dominated by unilat- Look at the Organization for Se- I eralism is a world without friends. Yet states curity and Cooperation in Eu- n need friends – at least partners and allies: for rope (OSCE). As the name im- trade, security, and to cope with threats and plies, this organization – created t challenges that defy borders. during the Cold War in 1975 – is e Therefore, cooperation is a necessity. It designed to foster security through is not just for idealist liberals or naïve inter- cooperation. As recently as twenty r nationalists: it is in the national self-interest. years ago, at a Summit in Is- n Those who espouse a go-it-alone, do-it-your- tanbul, heads of state self approach may spin an attractive narra- from the 57 countries a tive, but it is fantasiepolitik, not realpolitik. that participate in the The problem is, too many leaders take a OSCE – including

short-term, selfish perspective. At a time of Russia, the United t

short election cycles and even shorter news States and all coun- i cycles, a deal with a short-term pay-off is tries of Europe – re- o

considered a success. affirmed “the inherent right

Such behavior reflects what in political of each and every participating n science is known as the Prisoner’s Dilemma. State to be free to choose or change

And it can be profitable in a single business its security arrangements”, and a transaction. But this is not how internation- pledged that “they will not al relations work. You seldom have a one-off strengthen their security l transaction where you will never meet the at the expense of the se- other party again. This is particularly the curity of other States.” This case with neighboring states. Indeed, what is a creative way of over- you do this time has an impact on how you coming the security dilemma. are perceived next time. Experience shows that if you break the rules or break trust, the other side will do the same. This sets in mo- tion a dangerous spiral of retaliation.

4 Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 Europeans must keep their eyes on the long-term challenges Broadening the beneficiaries of globalization, decoupling future economic growth from resources use and avoiding escalation of geopolitical competition are key challenges that Europe must tackle. / By Dr. Robin Niblett, Director, Chatham House

mid Brexit, America First and a disaggregated economic and social effects of current bilateral geopolitical competition be- further its web of successful recent trade Chinese-US trade war, it is not an globalisation, which have hit specific sectors, tween the US and China into a more danger- negotiations, so as to embed a growing net- A easy time for multilateralist Eu- localities and communities hard, churning ous, global stand-off. Many Europeans share work of mid-sized countries in a rules-based ropeans. However, there is risk that their up the more emotional and identity-based US concerns about Chinese trade practices, approach to free trade. Especially on the reg- policymakers are drawn into responding to politics spreading across Europe, the Amer- intellectual property theft, domestic political ulatory side, the EU can extend shared ap- the daily vicissitudes of short-term shocks icas and Asia. repression and aggressive territorial claims proaches to competition policy, data protec- and tempestuous in the South China tion, tax avoidance and supply chain ethics tweets. Instead, Sea. But most fear and transparency. Tackling these issues in- Europeans should Europeans are instinctively supportive of the multilateral that the Trump ad- ternationally does not require prior consen- stay focused on ministration’s unilat- sus in multilateral institutions; it could also the most import- system, not only because it suits their interests, but also erally confrontational be instigated through the EU’s own market ant long-term because they are not well equipped to protect those inter- approach will lead to and regulatory power and bilateral agree- challenges. Three ests in a more combative and transactional world. a wider deterioration ments. stand out. in the multilateral Second, the EU could use its regulatory The first is to rules-based system, power and economic weight to accelerate rebalance global- which has served Eu- Europe’s contribution to responding to cli- ization so that it works for all. Economic The task of broadening the beneficiaries rope and America so well on balance these mate change. European citizens are increas- globalization has brought more prosperity of globalization will not be easy. Much of the past 70 years. ingly aware of the effects of their own choices to most people across the world, but it has world will struggle to escape this period of Europeans are instinctively supportive on the natural environment, as the shift in had uneven and unequal effects. Too often, sluggish growth. Aging societies in devel- of the multilateral system, not only because attitudes to plastic usage demonstrates. But in focusing on its opportunities or simply oped economies need to confront unsustain- it suits their interests, but also because they there is a long way to go. European govern- in viewing globalisation as inevitable, in- able worker-dependency ratios. Emerging are not well equipped to protect those inter- ments must work in tandem with multina- significant attention has been given to the economies have yet to overcome the middle ests in a more combative and transactional tional companies and non-profit organisa- income trap. And the just-in time global world. This is especially the case when Eu- tions, and alongside their own consumers economy is highly vulnerable to any disrup- rope’s main transatlantic partner – the Unit- to set the example for an accelerated transi- tions to the flow of goods, services, people ed States – is actively fostering the return to tion towards a low carbon and more circular and data, be that from cyber-attacks, trade great power competition. Despite their long economy. National budgets should be com- disputes or the geopolitical constriction of roster of domestic challenges – from protect- bined with collective Europe-led vehicles maritime choke points. ing the rule of law within the EU to reforming such as the EIB and EBRD, so as to focus on The second, related challenge is to the Eurozone – Europeans need to put equal transformational long term investments in decouple future economic growth effort today into managing this challenging clean energy infrastructure, transport and from resource use. As building sustainability. Europe- the IPCC has made an development policy should clear, there is little be linked to ensuring countries more than a de- The EU should use its collective market escape the fossil fuel trap, deliv- cade in which to strength to maximum effect so as to usher ering more flexible and energy try to ensure that efficient growth. global temperature in a more equitable period of economic Third, Europeans should try change is limited to globalisation. to reduce the chance of escalation a 1.5 degree increase. in geopolitical competition. Eu- Limiting human-driven rope needs to take an approach carbon emissions will be towards China that incentivis- only one – though crucial – component of international context. They should be will- es a deepening of China’s engagement in rebalancing global growth and consump- ing to invest in and defend the international multilateral responses toward shared global tion. Managing freshwater water sup- system where it under strain – from freedom challenges such as climate change and en- plies and land use will pose equally of navigation to a functioning WTO dispute vironmental management. Unlike the US, complex trade-offs. settlement mechanism – and be a source of Europeans have a self-interest in trying to The third challenge is to ideas, energy and political will to reform and steer China’s Belt and Road initiative along avoid an escalation in the adapt where it needs updating, for example a more environmentally sustainable and fi- I in the regulation of emerging technology. nancially transparent direction. On the oth- n Overall, there should be four strands to this er hand, it should join the US in screening strategy. Chinese inward investment more carefully, t First, the EU should use its collective in holding Chinese state subsidies to account e market strength to maximum effect so as to in the WTO, and in challenging the spread usher in a more equitable period of econom- of surveillance technologies that undermine r ic globalisation. The EU needs to expand human rights beyond China’s borders. This n will require European leaders to commit to making China policy a central area for coor- dination rather than giving China the oppor- a tunity to divide its positions. Finally, the UK and its EU partners must

t be aware that these initiatives will be less ef-

i fective if the process of negotiating Britain’s

o p withdrawal from the EU weakens any fur- i ther Europe’s collective voice on the world

n h stage. For Britain, its geography means that

s the EU will remain the first circle of its secu-

a r rity and economic interests. For the EU, Brit-

e ain’s economic, diplomatic and military heft l will be essential if Europe is to be a capable n collective international actor. This is a time

t for Europeans to hang together, or they risk

r hanging separately. •

a p

Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 5 Slovenia: saving you time “The sea route from Asia to our Port of Koper is five to eight days shorter in comparison to maritime routes from Asia to northern European ports. This not only reduces shipping costs, but also minimises the impact of global trade on the environment.” / By Alenka Bratušek, Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Infrastructure of the Republic of Slovenia

hen this year’s edition of the Bled ronment. What is more, at the beginning of entrepreneurs. As a small economy, Slovenia And when you want to explore more than Strategic Forum ends, what will this year we also started construction of the is export-oriented, which means our compa- our nature parks, peaks, lakes and other nat- W you remember when you re- Divača-Koper second rail line to the Port of nies have to be among the best in the world ural attractions, you can always visit nearby turn home? Surely, the cleverest ideas from Koper, which will be in operation by 2026. to be able to compete in the global market. countries – as already mentioned, Slovenia is the discussions – and surely the Thus, the work ethic is strong and in the heart of Europe, and so it is an excep- alluring image of Bled Island. businesses always strive for innova- tional starting point for leisure and business However, when your thoughts tion and excellence in their services trips. wander back to the moments you Time is the most precious resource. and products. The Fourteenth Bled Strategic Forum experienced here, you should Come on in and optimise! In Slovenia, Helping them succeed are re- is about strategic resources, and one of the also recall Slovenia’s excellent everything is close at hand. sponsive public services, well-devel- most important and precious resources at geostrategic position – located oped ITC infrastructure, and one of our disposal is time. So, come on in and in the centre of Europe, just like the best energy systems in the world. optimise! In Slovenia, everything is close at Bled Island adorns the middle of As you may know, Slovenia ranks hand. • the lake. This project has the support of many EU sixth on the World Energy Council’s Energy member states and it has also been discussed Trilemma Index, which measures energy se- The route to success at the EU-China Connectivity Platform. In curity, energy accessibility and affordability, Slovenia may be small, but we have a lot combination with other investments in our and environmental sustainability. to offer. The companies that have already -in railway system and the expansion of interna- vested here and those that have decided to tional airports in Ljubljana and Maribor, the Everything at hand settle in Slovenia have all made great use of construction of the new railway will further Of course, Slovenia is also a great place their resources – and of one in particular. enhance opportunities for entrepreneurial to have a great time. Whether you politically Mostly, what investors first discover and business initiatives in Slovenia. agree with former US President George W. about Slovenia is our excellent transport in- Bush or not, he was absolutely right about frastructure and our connection to Europe- More than just hard infrastructure Slovenia being “a big slice of heaven”, as he an road and rail corridors. However, there is much, much more to once said when visiting. For example, the sea route from Asia to our country than its geostrategic position. Foreigners that come to Slovenia by our Port of Koper is five to eight days short- Company managers are happy with our chance or by design usually decide to settle er in comparison to maritime routes from well-educated workforce because we have here because of the high standard and the Asia to Northern European ports. This not an excellent education system in which even comfort of living. If you stay in the capital only reduces shipping costs, but also mini- tertiary education is tuition-free. Ljubljana, for example, you have only a one- mizes the impact of global trade on the envi- There are also our reliable businesses and hour drive to the mountains and to the sea.

6 Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 Continued from page 1 Asked whether she felt the new European the UN Security Council, announcing the Commission team would be able to strength- country would cooperate closely with its EU en public trust in EU institutions, Kaljulaid partners. said that this in fact should not be the re- Kaljulaid said this was not only about ties sponsibility of the Commission as "the most within the EU, but also within NATO and technical body of the EU". part of "our common effort to defend Europe "You cannot charge the European Com- as a whole". mission with the liability to overcome dem- "Our security is very much based on ocratic deficit. There is the European Coun- democratic values. There are many ways cil which consists of elected presidents and where we can work together and then make PMs, there is the European Parliament that sure that resources are spent together effi- is elected directly by the citizens of the EU." ciently and effectively. So it is very good that Kaljulaid also rejects fears related to the we're coming together and synchronising rise of nationalists and populists and those our thinking for the future and this is also pushing for a greater role of national states why the Bled forum is taking place in my or even for leaving the EU. opinion." "Who is advocating for leaving the EU? Commenting on relations with Russia, One country decided for this, but I think which she labelled a problematic neighbour there is nobody else thinking of following for the whole of Europe, Kaljulaid highlight- this line. On the contrary, I see European cit- ed the partial occupation of Georgia and izens trusting the EU more than before. We in particular the occupation of the Crimea also saw an important rise in participation in penninsula and war in the Donbass region the European Parliament election. in Ukraine. "I don't see that there is such a crisis of "States that respect liberal democratic democracy in the EU institutionally as you values also all respect the Helsinki Final Act seem to be thinking. Quite to the contrary, and they make sure that when they sign any to the level of development of new technolo- Another major topic at the Bled forum I think we have quite good opportunities to international agreements they do keep to gies and make use of the new opportunities will be the future of the EU, especially new continue deepening our cooperation." these agreements. Unfortunately Russia has emerging", she pointed out. institutional appointments after the May She argued that all the tasks faced by not been dong so." "I feel this is a task governments have to elections to the European Parliament. Kalju- European politicians, "starting with climate A normalisation of relations between EU undertake, because our people and our busi- laid disagrees with the view that most key change, or economic development, or even and Russia can only come when Russia does nesses are online anyway, so governments posts were occupied by candidates from so social development", can hardly be tackled away with the reasons that led to the intro- basically have an obligation to provide safe called old member states and that new mem- more successfully "without the EU, by 27 duction of EU sanctions against it, Kaljulaid identity for example. And its not only tech- bers got the short end of the stick. members separately", in particular "nowa- said. nological solutions - it is only by the power She in fact rejects the "old and new mem- days when borders inside the union are not "Of course economically this has a high- of law that you can guarantee digital signa- bers" terminology, arguing it was inappro- so important". er cost for those who traditionally and geo- tures for example." priate to speak of such a divide 15 years after "We need to be responsible for the welfare graphically had close economic ties, but I Kaljulaid moreover noted the need "to the last major enlargement, as there are also of our global citizens," she said, describing can tell you that Estonian businesses are not teach people a lot and train them; to have cy- no common denominators that would justify the EU as "simply the more effective model, complaining. They realise the political reality ber hygiene, for children to know that risks such distinctions. simply the rational way forward". and they do accept the current unfortunate exist online etc.". Kaljulaid does agree that the distribution Kaljulaid also called for a strengthening state of play." • Meanwhile, the Estonian president also of posts in the EU should be merit-based. of the EU's position in world, for a contin- plans to use her visit to strengthen economic She believes the decisions on the latest ap- uation of a common foreign policy strategy cooperation between Estonia and Slovenia. pointments were taken with "quite a lot of and "this harmonised thinking on European She argued there was far less economic co- thinking about who would be able to do the action globally". operation "right now than I would expect job and also by keeping in mind the bigger She announced Estonia would also play between two like-minded EU countries". balances, for instance gender balance". its part in this as a 2020-2021 member of

Continued from page 1 are past the point of thinking nothing can the path of sustainable thinking. I expect the The EU must be able to provide a high be done, unless it is coordinated and agreed EU to be able to ensure future oriented lead- quality of life for all. This goal can only be globally. It is high time for a parallel bottom ership, and be able to bring about inclusive achieved through balanced economic, social up approach. Much needed decisions on the and sustainable social as well as economic and environmental development that steps national and global level should be held and change. beyond the so-called “throwaway society”, they must be implemented and respected on Slovenia is committed to a strong, cohe- respects the constraints and capabilities of all levels – from local, national to global – by sive and united EU, which provides external our planet and creates conditions as well as individuals and governments as well as by and internal security and stability, an EU opportunities for present and future gener- multinational corporations, which are also that can effectively face the key challenges ations. In doing so when presiding over the among the factors of ensuring decisive sus- and threats of the modern world while en- Council of the EU, Slovenia will strive to tainable actions. suring solidarity and the highest standards of promote the circular economy as well as the Being aware of this responsibility, Slove- human rights and dignity. This is also crucial highest social and environmental standards. nia strives to do its utmost to also promote in strengthening the resilience of our societ- The EU should be able to reach this goal, up- the social aspect of the necessary change. ies to a plethora of hybrid threats, which will grade it and spread it worldwide. We cannot This is an important building block of sus- surely continue to intensify. Most important- only care for ourselves. The EU can only be a tainable development. It is often associated ly, we need to restore confidence in the EU trendsetter if it also cares for all. with the actions and decisions of companies and its institutions, in fair cooperation and and organizations. But each one of us is key in the rule of law. People must be put in the Challenges are a constant. Our to achieving social responsibility. The per- centre of our activities. responses should not be variable. sonal commitment of each individual to act Slovenia wishes to see an EU in which I am not entirely idealistic. I am well in accordance with values such as honesty, there is no room for divisions threatening aware how difficult it is to tackle environ- credibility, transparency, respect for social common interests. An EU, which guarantees mental pressures and climate change, de- norms and the right to be respectful of one’s unity and searches for common interests and mographic changes, migration and world state of our planet and what it can (still) of- neighbour, colleague, every individual, and solidarity. An EU, which supports common inequality, economic challenges, food and fer. This year, Bled Strategic Forum is about to cultivate a careful attitude towards the en- solutions, respect for human rights, interna- water scarcity, the persistent rise of terror- stability vs. instability. My deep persuasion vironment and resources matters. tional obligations and the principle of justice ism, conflicts, hybrid threats and more. But is that today, the issues of stability are more in all areas, reduces mutual inequality, and history proved that hiding away from these than ever connected to the issues of sustain- The EU as a global trendsetter. ensures respect of our differences. We must challenges just because they are difficult to ability. Ambitions for the future must never pledge to build a climate-neutral, green, fair tackle does not make them disappear. On the be feeble. and social Europe. All with the aim of secur- contrary. It brings us to the present situation. Sustainability as a synonym for the We are at the beginning of a new insti- ing a sustainable and safe future for the next Challenges to multilateralism and the future. tutional and legislative EU cycle. Each such generation of European citizens and with the growing temptations of isolationism and If we want to make sure that the world, beginning offers an opportunity for new di- aim of setting global standards. Someone nationalism must also be acknowledged, in- which we leave behind, will enable the same rections. Slovenia takes seriously its respon- must lead the way. The EU can. cluding within the EU. I firmly believe that quality of life enjoyed by ourselves, we must sibility as an EU member and has high ex- polarised politics and policies cannot be ef- resort to urgent actions and also be willing pectations and demands regarding standards Slovenia as a future oriented fective and sustainable. Unilateralism cannot to sacrifice some of our habits. If our goals that should be set and kept within the EU. Presidency. be the answer. This awareness should also be aim higher and we wish to make the world a The second Slovenian Presidency of the It is never too soon to start planning. part of our discussions on the future of the better place for future generations, we must Council of the EU will also be part of the up- Slovenia has already started to envisage its EU. be decisive in the implementation of these coming EU cycle. If we know what kind of second half of 2021 Presidency of the Coun- The annual Bled Strategic Forum is part actions. Europe we want, we will also be able to better cil of the EU. In the preparations as well as of these endeavours. We must all strive to While my wish would be that all neces- shape and lead it: I expect that in the com- discharge of this important task, we want to discuss and listen to warnings, ideas and sary actions are well coordinated and re- ing period, the EU will adopt policies that pursue a sustainable agenda. solutions in an open manner. • spected, I am also aware of the reality. We will unconditionally anchor the Union on

Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 7 Winning the ‘20s: a leadership agenda for the next decade The emerging trends shaping the business world and what leaders need to stay ahead in the 2020s / By Martin Reeves, BCG Managing Director and Senior Partner, Global Director of the BCG Henderson Institute

he winners in business have shifted and for younger digital giants, who will need of an exponential increase in data, better influence indirectly through platforms and markedly in the last decade. When to tackle new challenges like achieving agil- tools to mine insights from that data, and a marketplaces, and to coevolve with ecosys- T the 2010s began, the world’s ten ity at scale, preserving stakeholder trust and fast-changing business environment means tem partners. most valuable public companies by market bridging the physical and digital worlds. that companies will increasingly need to, and Finally, companies will increasingly capitalization were based in five countries, So, what will it take to win the ’20s? be able to, compete on the rate of learning. compete on resilience. Technological, polit- only two of them were in the tech sector, Scale will take on a new significance in ical, and social changes point to an era of and none was worth more than $400 billion. A leadership agenda to win the ‘20s the learning economy. Instead of the stat- protracted uncertainty, in which corporate As the 2020s approach, all of the top ten are While many aspects of the agenda will ic “economies of scale” that today’s lead- life cycles are likely to continue shrinking. in the US and China, the majority are tech vary by industry and region, we see five ers grew up with—based on a predictable Companies will therefore need to worry not companies, and some reduction of marginal only about the competitiveness of their im- at least temporarily production costs across mediate game but also about their ability to have surpassed $1 tril- a relatively uniform offer- weather unanticipated shocks. lion in value. Technological, political, and social changes point to ing—tomorrow’s leaders Most of today’s incumbents are not well Given the relent- will pursue “economies of adapted for this more dynamic environment. lessness of change on an era of protracted uncertainty, in which corporate learning,” based on iden- Therefore, today’s leaders need to fundamen- multiple dimensions, life cycles are likely to continue shrinking. tifying and fulfilling each tally reinvent the organizational model in or- the keys to success customer’s changing indi- der to become future winners. are likely to be just as vidual needs by leverag- Design the company of the future. Big different in ten years’ ing data and technology. data and deep learning have transformed time. Several emerging trends—including powerful emerging imperatives that will cut The arenas of competition will also look our ability to learn, and the next generation the rapid advancement of AI, the changing across industries and geographies. different in the 2020s, requiring new per- of technologies will undoubtedly bring nature of work, and increasing social scru- Master the new logic of competition. In- spectives and capabilities. The familiar pic- even more possibilities. History has shown, tiny of the impacts of technology and busi- ternet and mobile technology ushered in the ture of a small number of companies produc- however, that applying new technologies to ness—are likely to shape the future competi- information age and profoundly affected ing a common end product and competing existing processes and structures generally tive environment. technology-intensive and consumer-facing within well-defined industry boundaries will yields only incremental gains. To unlock To stay ahead of these trends, leaders industries such as electronics, communi- be replaced by one where competition and the learning potential of new technologies, need to question their current assumptions cations, entertainment, and retail. But the collaboration occur within and between eco- leaders need to reinvent the enterprise as a and retool their companies for the com- emerging wave of technology—including systems. Because ecosystems are fluid and next-generation learning organization. ing decade. This goes for both traditional sensors, the Internet of Things, and artificial dynamic, and not perfectly controllable even Merely applying AI to individual process incumbents, who will need to evolve their intelligence—will turn every business into by the orchestrator, companies will need to steps is not enough: To increase the ability businesses to embrace new technologies— an information business. The combination be much more externally oriented, to deploy of organizations to learn in aggregate, they

8 Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 must build integrated learning loops that and why, rather than relying on plausible as- tiple dimensions are even more innovative. role in addressing social challenges, which gather information from data ecosystems, sertions and rules of thumb. But to unlock the full potential of diversity, will be reinforced as newly adopted metrics continuously derive insights using machine Leaders also need to de-average their ap- organizations also need to foster an inclusive and standards make their efforts and impacts learning, and act on those insights proaches to change. Large-scale transforma- workplace and an environment that embrac- more transparent. Leaders need to focus on autonomously, all at the speed of algorithms tions comprise multiple change challenges, es new ideas. their companies’ total societal impact—in rather than the speed of Diversity also increases other words, they need to make sure that human hierarchies. resilience. Like biological their businesses create social as well as eco- Human cognition, Our study of more than 1,700 companies around communities and organ- nomic value. Not only can this increase fi- meanwhile, should be re- the world shows that diversity increases the ca- isms, companies that en- nancial performance in the long run, but it focused on problems that compass more heterogene- can strengthen the social contract between are beyond the capabilities pacity for innovation by expanding the range of a ity are likely to withstand business and society, ensuring that the rela- of machines today—such company’s ideas and options. unanticipated changes tionship is able to endure. Leaders will need as decoding slow-moving better. Enterprises that em- to master the art of corporate statesmanship, forces, such as social and brace diverse talent, ideas, proactively shaping the critical societal is- political shifts, that are increasingly trans - so leaders will need to tailor their approach- and sources of growth will have an advan- sues that will increasingly change the game forming business; imagining brand-new es to change accordingly, moving beyond the tage in understanding and adapting to exter- of businesses. possibilities; and designing the integrated monolithic programs centered on PMOs, nal shocks—which increasingly threaten the Winning the present is challeng- learning organization itself. This division of pulse checks and Gantt charts. By adopting survival of individual businesses. ing enough, but a more essential task for labor also requires rethinking human–ma- continuous change as the default, episodic Optimize for both social and business top leadership is winning the future. The chine interfaces so that humans can trust change programs will give way to innovation value. Several trends are fueling resistance fast-changing world will test our status quo and productively interact with machines. and change as ongoing operating impera- and resentment toward business. The climate assumptions, and it is critical to look forward Finally, the company of the future will re- tives. crisis and other negative externalities are in- in developing an agenda for the next decade. quire a new management model to match— Embrace the business imperative of creasingly visible, automation is sparking one based on biological principles such as diversity. Diversity is not only a moral im- fear about the future of work, trust in tech- This piece is an extract from BCG’s Win- experimentation and co-evolution, rather perative—it can also make businesses more nology is falling, inequality has risen mark- ning the ’20s: A Leadership Agenda for the than traditional top-down decision making effective in the long run. Our study of more edly within many countries, and the most Next Decade • and slow cycle planning. than 1,700 companies around the world successful companies are becoming larger, Apply the science of organizational shows that diversity increases the capaci- more visible, and more dominant. As a re- change. Leading companies may be under- ty for innovation by standably reluctant to unleash such funda- expanding the range mental change preemptively. But our re- of a company’s ideas Leaders need to focus on their companies’ total search shows that the single biggest factor and options. And as societal impact—in other words, they need to influencing the success of major change the speed of change programs is how early they are initiated. It accelerates, innovation make sure that their businesses create social as is therefore critical to create a sense of ur- and reinvention are in- well as economic value. gency within the organization to ensure that creasingly necessary to everyone truly understands the need for stay on top. change. The most obvious sources of diversity, sult, the role of business in society is coming Even for companies that are committed such as gender, ethnicity, and sexual orien- under question, risking the sustainability of to such transformation, it can be a risky en- tation, are indeed important in driving in- the current model of corporate capitalism. deavor: our research shows that most large- novation, but variety in work experience and To keep the game of business going, busi- scale change efforts fail. Therefore, leaders educational background is also significant. ness needs to be part of the solution. Em- need to employ evidence-based transforma- Importantly, these factors are mostly addi- ployees and other stakeholders increasingly tion—understanding empirically what works tive, so companies that are diverse on mul- expect companies to play a more prominent

Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 9 A clean, well-lighted place… Keeping the European perspective alive in the Western Balkans / By Majlinda Bregu, Secretary General, Regional Cooperation Council (RCC)

“-What is an hour? or digital agenda, smart cities and human not only the domestic problems they face, ences rather than seeing the world through capital investment. but also the unresolved issues in the region. the lenses of cooperation, we are simply wel- -More to me than to you. Today the region has embraced the con- 20 years ago, resentment and identity coming an unacceptable risk. We are a small -An hour is the same. cept of building the Regional Economic issues within the region were high and the market composed of small countries. As one Area, even though not everything is running hardest to reconcile. of the fathers of the EU, Paul Henri Spaak -No. It is not.” smoothly. But besides that, the need for a strategic said: “there are two kinds of countries in Eu- 20 years ago the Stabilisation and Asso- dialogue on the future of Europe between rope, -small countries and small countries ciation Process was launched with a list of the economies of our region and the EU is that have not yet realised that they are small”. ost people perceive time differ- required reforms. Since then only Croatia not only related to geopolitics and third play- In view of the current context of various ently. In our region the sense of became an EU Member State. The rest are ers. trade, transport and movement obstacles, it M history and its immersive emo- struggling to keep the torch lit, while en- Any lack of perspective and hope to join is clear to us that the region needs to embark tions still define the time in which we live. largement has ‘the blues’. the Europe would create a vacuum that can- on a serious and wide-ranging facilitation This part of Europe has changed a lot over I myself have witnessed different times not be filled only by external actors. Populist, agenda. the last 20 years, but far from progressing of our European endeavour. Every time I authoritarianism, illiberal policies can be 74% of citizens in the region believe Re- fast. Adagio lento is the rhythm in play. call them to my mind, I fail to understand even more dangerous in exploiting national, gional Cooperation will change their lives 20 years ago Stability Pact was launched all of them. Sometimes it looks like during social and economic disparities. positively and faster. in Sarajevo. It brought together world’s lead- so many years we have been more of amuse- Identities can be used to divide, but they Surprised? Citizens speak the language ers to draw an end to the wars in our region ment seekers in rush of glitter and success can also be used to unify. of unity. Enhancing national reforms and re- and to set the course of cooperation around than fanatically devoted to a European These are the times of decision-mak- gional cooperation will have an effect on the peace-security-stability-development nexus. change at home and time after time it looks ing for the Western Balkans (WB), and here socio-economic development of the region Today that pact is replaced by the Region- like the bar keeps moving up. I mean tough, important decisions on our and is a recipe for a better region. al Cooperation Process, a mantra that speaks Although membership in the EU remains future and perspectives. There are challenges Time passes by and leaves us all in a sol- volumes on the need to stand by each other the ultimate goal of all six economies, there’s which simply cannot wait! emn uncertainty which speaks far more of in a world that is changing fast. still a long row to hoe. WB needs to make sure that decision on how much is now at stake. The past is still A lot has changed since 1999. However, Though 56% of citizens in the region are the EU perspective is followed by decisive present, the view of the future might be the region is still a set of paradoxes. Ambi- in favour of EU membership, keeping the actions in that direction, and the EU needs bleak, but we lost a lot due to different in- tious policies are crafted and economic sta- narrative of membership perspective alive is to exercise its merit-based approach, reward- justices. bility is in place (economic growth is at 3.5% no easy task. ing those who deliver. The price for inaction An hour lost in vain is equivalent with in 2019). Years ago it was dangerous to drive True. The EU has been the single most and permitting further drifts is a dangerous years of struggle to catch up with the rest of from one place to another. Today it is differ- important leverage in the region to promote one. Fuelling bilateral disputes makes no fa- the world. ent. No danger. Apart from the roads that democracy, rule of law, respect for funda- vours to their participants – and not resolv- Yes, Western Balkans is an unfinished have not seen much improvement. mental rights and minorities. ing them blocks the entire neighbourhood’s business for Europe. Nothing really good 20 years ago a lot of people who sought True. European integration is the prime future, as the effects spill over to all joint en- will come out of a shrunken EU perspective, refuge from the wars were coming back mover in the economic, political and geo- deavours, making the entire WB their hos- but nothing will happen if we do not recall home. political life in the WB. We must not forget tage. that we need to take care and transform Today young people, as many as 39% that the EU’s share in both FDI and exports Europe is a state of mind as well, that’s our “small home” into a clean, well-lighted (data from the Balkan Barometer 2019) are in the region is well over 70%. Yet, different why the region needs a reshaped strategy place… ready to leave in search of lost hope. actors are playing their part, arousing fear, of political engagement in order to support By the way, “A clean, well-lighted place” is 20 years ago democracy was a work in suspicion, and debts while accessing ener- lasting reforms locally. It has to shift the lan- one of Ernest Hemingway’s stories. progress. gy, infrastructure, markets and technology. guage and attention from the date of joining Today 70% of citizens in the region do Every time EU leverage shrinks, let’s be bold the EU, the unfounded fear of enlargement The time was different, but the story is the not trust their governments, parliaments and and say it openly: a new (cultural) revolution or enlargement fatigue, to the real democrat- same. Still. • judiciary. (data from the Balkan Barometer is next door. While democracy has retreated ic transformation of WB. It should empower 2019) across the globe, it is almost impossible for and speak the language of unity among the 20 years ago there were almost no private the region to stand tall vis-à-vis the engage- citizens by enhancing national reforms and companies or Foreign Direct Investments. ment of external actors. regional cooperation with effect on the eco- Today the FDI inflows across the region True. The prospect of eventual EU mem- nomic development of the region. have almost doubled, increasing from 3.6 bership has been a driving force during all European Integration of WB is not a terri- billion EUR in 2010 to 6.6 billion EUR in these years, for all Western Balkan countries. torial agenda. It is a Transformational agen- 2018. It has been the predominant factor in urging da. No one expects any shortage of sensitivi- 20 years ago nobody would speak of the countries to engage with one another in ties or emotional structures on display. But if trade, technological development, start-ups a more positive manner as well as to address we continue keeping the focus on the differ-

10 Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 Regional cooperation for European integration and sustainable development “The Central European Initiative (CEI)1 contributes its share, through its 30-year experience of providing a political platform for multilateral diplomacy and multi- stakeholder participation in addressing common issues to the political and socio- economic project of European integration.“ / By Roberto Antonione, Secretary-General, Central European Initiative

he increasingly unsettled and com- regional cooperation. The Western Balkans This model of EU – non-EU partnership, Ministers of Foreign Affairs have identified - plex international environment, are after all a part of Europe: through geogra- fostering know-how transfer underpinning in the need for reforms - one of the bases for T subject to rapid change, as well as phy, history, culture, and common challeng- multilateral diplomacy, is also key for the en- enhanced cooperation, thus contributing to multiple “internal” challenges, have been es. Moreover, in the absence of a credible and gagement of the CEI Eastern countries close- the very goal of European integration. Youth keeping the EU busy with reflections about sustainable path, it should not come as a sur- ly linked to the EU with the Eastern Partner- and cooperation between local and regional its future: what kind of Europe can better prise that the vacated space might be filled ship architecture. authorities will be in the limelight. The fu- respond to the needs of its citizens? How by other state and non-state actors, given the To this end, the multi-stakeholder ap- ture of societies largely depends on the per- to address common challenges such as in geopolitical shifts and the changing global proach is conducive to fostering strong spective of young citizens, and cooperation the areas of migration, security, as well as order. Disillusion and (perceived lack of) institutions and societies, as well as to sup- at the level closest to the everyday life of citi- socio-economic concerns. How to, for the perspective for youth are two consequences porting integration through multi-level zens fosters territorial and societal cohesion. first time in history, deal with the exit of a that should be borne in mind. partnerships. It is a driving force of inclusive Synergies are crucial, and we are very key Member State. How to narrow the dis- I believe that more engagement is need- processes of policy development and imple- much aware of this at the CEI, especially tance perceived between citizens and “Brus- ed with public opinion, especially in EU mentation. In this regard, the CEI provides among regional partnerships striving for sels”. How to make sure the EU remains a key Member States that seem to exhibit growing a strong inter-governmental platform for comparable goals. global player in a more geopolitical and less skepticism: not only with decision-makers, political dialogue, as well as parliamentary Moreover, building synergies is essen- order-based world. but also with citizens. The message to be de- and business dimensions. It is sustained by tial also regarding the aims and activities of Let us face it. Europe is different today livered is that enlargement is still a strategic a project-oriented approach, based on a flex- the EU and even of global multilateral ac- then at the time of the EU “big bang” en- interest of the EU, for the maintenance of ible use of instruments taking into account tors, such as the UN. Not only does the UN largement in 2004 (and 2007). At that time, peace, stability, security and prosperity. the needs of the wider CEI region. CEI ac- Charter call for regional and sub-regional there was a shared enthusiasm and a joint European integration, however, is and tivities involve a whole array of other actors, arrangements to complement and support vision of uniting Europe after the divisions should not, per se, be equal to the steps of such as local institutions, private sectors, civ- UN efforts in the maintenance of interna- of the post-cold war period. We can point the Accession Process. The responsibility for il society, universities and academia, as well tional peace and security, but this support to countless examples demonstrating the sustainable and prosperous economies and as young people. is essential also in certain areas, such as in prosperity and stability brought to Europe- strong and independent institutions, forged This year’s 30th anniversary of the CEI the implementation of the Sustainable De- an citizens by the EU and its enlargement(s). through real reform processes of democrati- - which goes back to an illuminated vision velopment Goals. Moreover, the UN Secre- Moreover, following the financial crisis, we sation – the “Europeisation” of societies - lies of the founding countries committing to tary-General has identified the development are witnessing a renewed economic growth with the countries of the region. There are good-neighborly relations and manifold co- of partnerships between the UN and region- within the EU. recent constructive examples of political will operation just two days after the fall of the al and sub-regional organisations as a central Nevertheless, the accession process of the and leadership setting positive steps for the Berlin wall -is the right time to reflect on fu- pillar of the UN system reform. Western Balkans seems at risk of becoming region, thus overcoming long-term disputes ture ways of going about the main goals the I am convinced regional partnerships hostage to the above-mentioned concerns, such as the Prespa Agreement. Organisation is pursuing, i.e. European inte- such as the CEI can foster multilateral solu- or at least of the line of thought that the EU European integration is a broader concept gration and sustainable development. tions to challenges that transcend national must firstly deepen or reform, in order to be and a path of aligning policies, standards and Adding to the commitment to supporting borders, and thus contribute to both the po- able to enlarge again. core value sharing. Yet, we are aware of the the enlargement to the Western Balkans re- litical as well as socio-economic European At the time of writing this text, the EU in- need to avoid having to see physical borders gion and the rapprochement stemming from integration project. • stitutions are still in flux. The European per- turn into barriers: to this aim, regional part- the Eastern Partnership framework, the CEI spective for European States able and willing nerships, and regional organisations such as to join the EU is included in the Strategic the CEI, are crucial since they provide com- Agenda 2019 – 2024, adopted by the Europe- plementary multilateral schemes able to sus- an Council. It is also reaffirmed by the Pres- tain the European integration process. ident-Elect Von der Leyen in her guidelines This is even more palpable for the CEI, for the next European Commission, together as its membership allows for sharing expe- with her support for opening negotiations riences between EU and non-EU Member with North Macedonia and Albania. States from Central, South East and East Eu- We will see how vocal (and firm) the rope. new European Commission will be about enlargement. At the same time, the continu- ation of the trend of individual national pol- icies influencing the EU enlargement policy is quite predictable. Some of the viewpoints in the campaign for the recent European Par- liament elections have once again showed that the will to match deeds with words (or promises) is less a truly shared one by all Member States. The commitments undertaken by the Enlargement is still a strategic interest EU and its Member States starting from the of the EU, for the maintenance of peace, 2003 Thessaloniki Agenda, regarding the un- equivocal European perspective, should not stability, security and prosperity. be delayed without a justified reason. Not be- cause the EU credibility is at stake. Not even for the reason of keeping the reform process going in the region. Although, it goes with- out saying that the EU rapprochement is a key driver for change, as it was for the coun- tries entering the EU in 2004, 2007 and 2013. Reforms and transformations of societies are, in fact, not to be pursued to obtain EU membership. They are essential for the ben- Endnotes efit of citizens, health of economies and the 1 The Central European Initiative (CEI) is the largest regional in- bright future of the region. tergovernmental regional organisation in Europe, bringing together at the same table 17 countries from Central, South East and East Commitments should be upheld, provid- Europe area (Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Italy, Moldova, Montenegro, ed that required individual achievements and North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, merits are met, and there is progress through Ukraine).

Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 11 Whither Europe? Responding to people’s fundamental concerns will simultaneously help member states and enhance the value of the EU for its citizens. / By Charles Powell, Director, The Elcano Royal Institute (Madrid)

s the European Union begins to tal concerns will simultaneously help mem- think in earnest about life after ber states and enhance the value of the EU A Brexit and looks forward to the for its citizens. appointment of a new Commission led by Not since the aftermath of World War II Ursula von der Leyen, the time seems ripe has Europe had to endure such a weak recov- to look ahead and identify some of the ma- ery from a crisis as that which we have ex- jor challenges it will be facing and how they perienced. Rapid technological change, open might be tackled. economic borders and the economic policies The EU is operat- ing in an increasingly complex environment. Recent polls suggest that support for the EU is on the rise, Although globalisation and European integra- and the European Parliament elections held in May 2019 tion have undoubted- did not result in the debacle some had feared, but it is im- ly served to increase prosperity, the negative portant to acknowledge that a quarter of the new MEPs are consequences of the openly hostile to the European integration project. former, which have hit the European working and middle classes es- pecially hard, have provoked widespread pursued by most EU states in the wake of the discontent with politics, political parties and crisis have resulted in stagnant middle class politicians generally. Furthermore, many wages, increased inequality (with growing European citizens have come to perceive the concentrations of income in the top 10%) EU as part of the problem (whether or not and new forms of poverty and social exclu- this diagnosis is justified is an entirely differ- sion, particularly in the South. Furthermore, ent matter), rather than part of the solution. the quality of jobs available has declined The 2005 French and Dutch referenda even in those countries with low unemploy- Proposal provided a foretaste of this shift in opinion, ment, and the working poor have emerged which intensified after the worldwide finan- as a distinct social category. Many Europeans EU security policy must adapt to the growing importance of non-conventional threats, terror- cial and economic crisis of 2008. One pos- feel that their children will be worse off than ism in particular. This requires: • Furthering cooperation in areas such as address their root causes, i.e. instability sible interpretation of the Brexit referendum they are, that they will not benefit in the fu- policing, intelligence and justice; in the broader southern European neigh- outcome is to see it as a reflection of these ture from current levels of welfare, and that • Strengthening the cyber-security capabil- bourhood; concerns. they face declining economic opportunities. ities of some member states and partners • A profound renewal of the EU’s neigh- It is in this context that political parties Moreover, many perceive that the EU, far in Central and Eastern Europe; bourhood policies towards the East and allegedly offering alternatives to traditional from providing a buffer to protect them from • The best contribution CSDP can make in the MENA region, as well as Sub-Saharan politics – featuring ready-made ‘solutions’ these powerful global trends, is exacerbating the context of the ongoing migration chal- Africa, with new and better financed and lenge and the threat of terrorism is to help such as xenophobia, populism, protection- managed instruments. ism, nationalism and Euroscepticism – have increasingly managed to elicit citizens’ sym- Proposal pathy for their programmes. Recent polls These new taxes would finance a bud- them. A clear instance of this is the persistent of the crisis need to be shared, while cred- suggest that support for the EU is on the rise, get of 1% of GDP (up to €140 billion), innovation gap that is creating sharp divi- itor countries are adamant in their refusal and the European Parliament elections held which would fund policies in five con- sions between labour markets, separating to mutualise past and future debt, insisting in May 2019 did not result in the debacle crete areas across the EU: them along national lines. The result is that that this can happen only if there is central some had feared, but it is important to ac- • Developing vocational dual education; broad sectors of the population perceive in- control of national budgets. Countries with knowledge that a quarter of the new MEPs • Improving active entrepreneurial and tra-EU mobility as a threat, rather than an fiscal surpluses mistrust the ability and/or are openly hostile to the European integra- labour market policies; opportunity. willingness of debtor and deficit member • Financing an Erasmus scheme for tion project. workers; In short, there is a growing concern that states to reform, and the latter in turn believe This troubling state of affairs makes it • Increasing investment in pan-Europe- neither the EU nor its member states are do- that the euro mostly benefits one particular imperative for the EU to address a number an projects (green infrastructure and ing enough to compensate those who have economic model, distant from their own. of clearly identifiable socioeconomic and technology); lost out from the globalisation process. As a Naturally, policymakers in less prosperous political challenges, including some related • Strengthening internal and external result, the sense of ongoing economic prog- states worry about divergence in per capi- to identity and multiculturalism, and to pro- defence and security as per below. ress and rising shared prosperity that once ta incomes, but policymakers in the richest vide appropriate and imaginative solutions characterised the EU has been significantly states should be concerned as well. After all, to them. Responding to people’s fundamen- eroded. An era of diminished expectations economic convergence has always been at has arrived, and economic insecurity and the very heart of the social contract in the anxiety about the future are generating a EU. Increasing divergence may stimulate Proposal backlash against globalisation in general and disaffection among those who feel they are Ensuring economic growth and better jobs • The EU should take measures to increase the EU in particular. Unless urgent measures being left behind but will also alienate those while making the euro sustainable in the internal labour market mobility, including are taken to protect Europe’s middle and long run are closely interrelated goals, even those based on the budgetary instruments working classes, we will face growing pop- for non-eurozone member states. Both re- mentioned below; ulist, anti-European and even undemocratic Proposal quire innovation on the revenue and spend- • The EU should demonstrate stronger lead- attitudes that could threaten everything the ing sides of the budget, at the national and ership in specific global initiatives seeking EU is meant to stand for. A travel tax + a new environmental tax EU levels. They will also require new eco- to achieve a more balanced globalization The Global Financial Crisis and its af- + a financial transactions tax + further nomic policies. process, starting with the fight against tax taxes associated with the activities of • The EU must remain an open economy evasion, the taxation of tech multination- termath have proved that the eurozone is the internal market (all could be agreed and reject attempts to return to protec- als and the introduction of a Financial unsustainable without further fiscal inte- upon with an enhanced cooperation pro- tionist policies. This openness, however, Transaction Tax to limit the influence of gration. Since the Greek debt crisis (2010), cedure). Their benefits would be man- should not be allowed to lead to the dis- international finance in the global econ- the leaders of the eurozone have tried to ad- ifold: mantling of the European social model; omy; dress the structural flaws of EMU, but many • First, they would generate a sense • The EU should have more scope for es- • The EU should introduce more equal economists remain sceptical about the Euro’s of ownership. People paying the tax tablishing guidelines to encourage mem- and progressive taxation to achieve more chances of surviving another crisis. The re- would like to see tangible benefits ber states to concentrate expenditure on effective redistribution leading to real and hence would also engage more cent European economic slowdown (partic- specific areas, such as education, R&D, equality of opportunity, particularly to pro- with EU affairs; industrial policy and pan-European infra- tect those more severely affected by global ularly in Germany and Italy), the possible • Second, they would be the embryo structures. These guidelines could take trends. This will mean increasing progres- adverse effects of a no-deal Brexit and the of a fiscal backstop for the eurozone, the form of more specific recommenda- siveness within national tax systems and impact of the US-China trade war makes and perhaps a larger budget for the tions in the Macroeconomic Imbalances ensuring that multinational corporations EMU reform even more necessary. EU at a later date; Procedures and the Stability and Growth pay what they should in every member Financial history suggests that banking • Third, they would require the creation Pact; state, but also generating new sources of unions cannot work without fiscal unions, of a eurozone committee within the revenue that should be collected at the European Parliament, which, decid- but in the case of Europe, the latter is so EU (or at least the eurozone) level. Una- ing jointly with the Eurogroup, would nimity in tax issues should end. far nowhere to be seen. The foundations on ensure the efficient use of these which such a fiscal union would need to rest funds. do not currently exist: distrust is now wide- spread, and debtor countries feel the costs

12 Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 ly to all member states, and in all situations. sources and fears about national identity In part, the Brexit vote reflects this concern. have fuelled xenophobic movements that Proposal Meanwhile, many citizens resent what they are especially strong among the least quali- perceive as German dominance of the Euro- fied sectors of society, and the fear of future Finally, the EU needs to accommodate growing internal divergences and differ- pean project and are dismayed by the failure waves of unregistered asylum-seekers hail- ent views on its own development. This of other governments to provide alternative ing from Muslim countries have only served requires: policies and leadership. In the long run, this to intensify apprehension. Furthermore, ter- • An imaginative use of available solu- may lead not only to growing confrontation, rorist attacks in France, Belgium, Germany tions to accommodate diversity and but also to disaffection with a European inte- and Spain have connected these fears with pluralism, and the avoidance of dog- gration model that appears to benefit some antagonism towards Muslim communities. matic interpretation of rules and pro- member states more than others. EU populations – particularly in the South cedures, so as to prevent the emer- The unprecedented 2015 refugee crisis – are declining and ageing, but not many of gence of monolithic conceptions of the Union; stoked anti-immigration sentiment in many our citizens share the optimism of experts • A shift to methods of constitu- member states, which has been exacerbat- who see the arrival of immigrants as a demo- tion-making and governance that in- ed by socioeconomic, security and identity graphic blessing. Additionally, the arrival of crease inclusiveness and minimise concerns. Perceived competition between poorly qualified immigrants is aggravating unilateralism; locals and immigrants for scarce public re- the difficulties already faced by stressed wel- • Reinforcing joint scrutiny of EU and fare states. Nevertheless, the survival of the national governance in areas such as EU in the highly-competitive global trade corruption and the rule of law. Proposal arena – and the future of its pension systems – requires it to attract highly-qualified immi- In an era of increased geopolitical ten- grants, especially since it is still losing home- ternational relations during the next few de- sions and great power rivalry, the EU grown talent to the United States and other cades. The trade and currency wars we are needs to develop its own strategic capa- countries. already experiencing could have dire conse- bilities. This means it must: • Push forward with the development The threat of jihadist terrorism and its quences for the world economy, and the EU of the European Defence Union ini- impact on Europe and the neighbouring cannot afford to sit back and watch from the tiated with PESCO and the European regions has brought to the fore the impor- side-lines. As the largest trading bloc in the Defence Fund; tance of internal and external security for EU world, it must make its voice heard in de- • Revise and update its strategic rela- states and their citizens. The major threats to fence of a more inclusive and effective rules- tions with the US, Russia and China; Europe emanate from three areas: the South, based international order, which will require • Improve coordination between its the Middle East (due in part to failed West- it to adopt a more strategic (and geopolitical) trade and foreign affairs policies: these are two sides of the same coin ern policies in Iraq, Syria and Libya), and approach to trade and currency issues. and need to work in unison; Russia, whose recent aggressive behaviour in Citizens are demanding better Europe- • Seek closer cooperation between both the East poses a threat to the EU and caus- an (and not just EU) governance. This will administrative and epistemic commu- es very real concern in the member states require better national governance, and an nities: economics and finance experts closest to its borders. All three areas require improvement of the EU’s ability to enforce who feel they are being taken advantage of. should work closely with their foreign a robust and effective Common Foreign and the rule of law, administrate effectively, and Convergence, however, cannot happen with- affairs and defence counterparts; Defence Policy, a reinforcement of anti-ter- contribute to the fight against corruption. • Advance the internationalisation of out new investment, and this requires fresh the euro, which is a good example of rorist cooperation, and a renewed approach Instead of ‘more Europe’, what Europe re- money. how economic and commercial activi- to neighbouring regions, where aid and de- ally needs is a more constructive balance The Union has become more internally ties cannot be separated from geopo- velopment policies have been found totally between the national and EU levels (with differentiated than ever before. Many constit- litical considerations. wanting. strong and effective member states).• uencies in a variety of member states object The growing rivalry between China and to one-size-fits-all solutions that apply equal- the United States will largely dominate in- PATH_265x210_ENG.pdf 1 22/07/2019 11:33 AM

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Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 13 Building the digital economy that benefits everyone What is the biggest myth about the digital economy? Probably that all you need to do is to provide people and businesses with access to internet and that alone will ensure that economy grows. / By Josko Mrndze, Country Manager, Adriatics, Google

he promise of digital economy is that AI is crucial. Yet we know that not everyone Lastly, we need to develop new ideas and is for governments, businesses and other in- it can bring a new impulse for the de- gets access to these same opportunities. Re- experiment. Industry needs to work with stitutions in the region to work together to Tvelopment of industry and services, cent research published by the OECD tells us more diverse partners to help industrial work achieve market scale, build joint solutions and make the daily lives of people across the that people in jobs most at risk from automa- adapt to new challenges. Not everyone has and advance the digital agenda. This cooper- world better. But while reliable, affordable tion, such as low-skilled workers, or often, the time or opportunity to access skills avail- ation is largely missing and needs to be fos- and fast internet infrastructure is indispens- women, do less training than those at low able so we need to go to them to make it pos- tered. Forums like the Three Seas Initiative able in today’s interconnected world, digital risk. The OECD suggests that this could be sible. on the intergovernmental level, and nation- economy requires much more - learning, due to motivation to train but also a lack of al-level organizations like the Digital Coali- strategic planning and, above all, wise invest- support from their employer, or a lack of time The next engine of growth tion of Slovenia or projects like the Digital ment in order to ensure that technology ben- or money. Helping people to acquire skills needed Board Initiative, which I had the privilege to efits everyone. That is why Google has been working for in this new economic reality is an urgent help establish in Croatia, are showing the way Now more than ever, Europe has a his- a few years now to deliver such opportunity task to complete. Once we jointly solve this forward. toric chance to bet on the winning horse and in Europe. This drives our Grow with Goo- challenge we can look optimistically at what This needs to be followed by more gran- transform its economy in a way that uses its gle programmes: free training, products and comes next - a historic opportunity for our ular actions - for example public and private full potential. Central and Eastern Europe- tools designed to help people find a job, ad- part of Europe to kick-start the next era of its sectors alike should improve their adoption an economies are particularly well-suited to vance their career or grow their business, economic growth and prosperity. of digital tools. Companies need to focus on benefit from that transformation. But this which has now trained 10 million people Let us take a step back and look at the using these tools to reach new customers and chance must not be taken for granted. across Europe, the Middle East and Africa. In economic success in Central and Eastern Eu- expand into regional and global markets. For Central and Eastern Europe, in partnership rope to date. Unquestionably, it has already new enterprises, this needs to be their default Making technology work for everyone with ministries and NGOs, we have trained been impressive. Of the 12 EU members to approach: in a digital economy their compe- The internet has already created a huge nearly half a million citizens and have helped grow by 3% or more in 2018, nine are CEE tition and clients are a click away and they amount of opportunity for people and busi- about 150,000 to grow their careers or busi- countries. These developments suggests that face a global market immediately on the first nesses. It enabled all businesses to go global nesses. We are also investing a further $20 is time to change our perception of what is day they are open for business. Fortunately, and it makes it easier for people to find the million by 2020 in those programs and train- possible to achieve for Central and Eastern in the digital economy CEE countries are not skills and platforms they need to start a new ings to help reach even more people in the European countries. playing catch-up with the rest of Europe. The career. We at Google have also seen how new region. In the digital economy – understood as talent, the infrastructure, the entrepreneurial technologies like machine learning are bring- We feel a deep responsibility to get this the entirety of modern economy, not just a ambition shows that we can also lead in many ing improvements to the way we live and right. As a result of our programmes, we have technological sector – the opportunity is tre- respects. work. Products like Google Translate help developed a few recommendations on how mendous. McKinsey & Co has recently pub- us communicate more easily. Businesses use industry can work with governments, educa- lished a comprehensive study showing that Seizing the opportunity our advertising products to sell their goods tors and others to tackle these challenges. the potential of digitization in Central and We at Google have always been funda- and services to customers located thousands Firstly, digital skills must be included in Eastern Europe could exceed 200 billion euro mentally optimistic about the power of in- of kilometers away. And the advancements of policy discussions at all levels. Only then can in added GDP over the next few years. The novative technology everywhere – but we our cloud technologies help enterprises large governments, businesses and educators work authors of the study concluded that the CEE believe that the entire Central and Eastern and small to optimize their processes and im- together to remove some of the barriers that region is full of “Digital Challengers” – coun- Europe is particularly well-positioned to get prove productivity. prevent people from accessing training. tries that have very strong fundamentals, ahead in the digital future. There is a vibrant Nonetheless, before we consider what Secondly, partnerships are crucial. No even when compared to the largest European digital ecosystem and growth in the region comes next for our countries, economies and single stakeholder can work this out in iso- countries, including their robust education that we are proud to be a part of. We see it individual lives, we must ask whether those lation. We are partnering with organisations systems, great talent pool and modern in- as our mission to help the success of as many benefits will be enjoyed by everyone or just that can help us better reach those at risk. In frastructure. That last point is of particular companies to achieve regional and global a few? many countries we partner with ministries importance - CEE economies are simply less success as possible. According to the European Commission, responsible for economic, social or education tied up with older technology and legacy in- We also realize that this shift can also in the next 10-15 years, 90% of all jobs will portfolios. But we are most grateful for the dustrial solutions. So while it may be more bring uncertainty and challenges in terms require at least some level of digital skills, joint work with organizations that help reach difficult for Digital Challengers to compete of managing the transition. It calls on all which means that if nothing changes in the those who stand a lower chance of getting in the traditional economy, they enjoy a level companies across all sectors to work togeth- way we train people, we are heading towards such training in the first place - for example playing field in the digital economy. er with governments, academics and other a significant skills gap across the EU. It is es- women in rural areas or those with primary As the region’s traditional growth engines stakeholders to ensure technology is serving timated that 14% of jobs could be replaced education. loses momentum, digitization could be the the many, not just a few. It’s our shared re- by automation and another 32% are set to next major strategic growth driver for the all sponsibility to help make technology and the change radically. At the same time, many of the countries in Central and Eastern Eu- web work for everyone, and in particular to new jobs will be created by technology that rope - and a competitive advantage versus help all of the countries of the region to seize weren’t possible before, but that still does not other European and world economies. this unique opportunity. • mean we should overlook the priority task - However, in order to realize this potential, we need to help retrain people and aid them a number of steps need to be taken. On top of in acquiring new skills necessary in the econ- improving digital skills, the crucial element omy that becomes progressively more digital every day. Providing access to skills to prepare peo- ple for the future of work and the impact of

The potential of digitization in Central and Eastern Europe could exceed 200 billion euro in added GDP over the next few years.

14 Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 Creating ‘virtuous cycles’ Sustainable quality & the climate change challenge in the coffee sector. / By Andrea Illy, Chairman, illycaffe

cup of illy coffee is the culmination even if a lot of work still has to be done. But also the livelihoods of millions of farmers The idea of a‘virtuous agriculture’, devel- of a lengthy and complex process, today we are facing a true emergency, which are at risk. With climate change, pest man- oped with the contribution of academic and A reflecting a veritable obsession for of course is not limited to coffee and not agement and disease control are serious is- institutional experts, consists in a proposal absolute quality that started in 1933, when even to agriculture, but to our own survival sues for farmers and their crops. Without for a soil-to-soil carbon cycle and started Francesco Illy chose Trieste to launch a busi- on earth: climate change. We observed that investments in adaptation to climate change, from the awareness that within the next 30 ness based on a dream: offering the greatest over the past two decades, coffee agriculture they will be forced to migrate to regions years the global economy must become car- coffee to the world. This was the birth of -il has been highly impacted by climate change, where temperatures are adequate for surviv- bon-negative. Failure to do so will have un- lycaffè, which today manufactures and sells both in terms of quality and productivity. al, but most farmers won’t be ready or ever imaginable catastrophic consequences to any worldwide a unique, high-quality blend of This is supported by different studies, among capable to do so. Many will simply choose form of life - including humans - on Earth. coffee made of 9 varieties of Arabica beans which is the one conducted in 2015 by Pro- to grow other crops - less vulnerable to cli- Agriculture must do its fair share: paradigm from 9 different origins. Our mate change. Others may at- shifts are required in order firstly to adapt to mission is driven by a strong tempt to increase their coffee climate change and secondly - being respon- belief: sustainable quality be- Today we are facing a true emergency, production, but the quality sible for 25% of greenhouse gases (GHC) gins at the very beginning of which of course is not limited to coffee will almost certainly be com- emissions - to mitigate it. the chain, on the plant itself. promised. Investment need to With a capacity over 3 times that of the This is why, over 30 years ago, and not even to agriculture, but to our own be made in countries where – atmosphere, soil is the second largest carbon my father Ernesto – the second survival on earth: climate change. together with market volatility sink after oceans. Enriching agricultural soil entrepreneurial generation, and low levels of socio-eco- with organic carbon (SOC) represents an pioneered the direct purchase nomic development - access effective way to sequestrate GHG and in- model, which still represents illy business fessor Jeffrey Sachs at Columbia University’s to subsidized finance is extremely difficult crease soil quality and resilience, while also model today: selecting the very best Arabica Earth Institute. To define how massive and or almost impossible. These investments indirectly enhancing biodiversity, fertility beans all over the world; working hand-in- critical this impact could be on the world should be made by the growers themselves and water retention. In several cases, high hand with the coffee growers, with whom we coffee communities, we should consider to finance agricultural projects applying new content of SOC can reduce dependence on share our knowledge of the best agronomical that coffee beans are grown in more than 60 agronomical practices, developing new resis- agrochemicals. practices through our University of Coffee, Countries by 25 million families worldwide, tant varieties and planting new production To scale these environmentally benefi- celebrating this year its 20th anniversary; re- for most of which coffee is the only way to areas. cial practices, strong engagement of the two warding them with a premium price for the make a living. Such an endeavor requires a public/pri- main stakeholders - growers and consumers sustainable quality; strengthening and con- The situation is expected to get worse, as vate multi-stakeholder collaboration along - is necessary. Growers need a business mod- solidating our relationship with the produc- the relation between global warming and en- the whole value chain. In the past two years, el that is more rewarding than conventional ers through ‘the illy growers club’. vironmental impact is complex and not lin- together with the Swiss Coffee Trading Asso- agriculture, whose decreasing return is due In fact, illycaffè’s sustainable business ear: a combination of effects, resulting from ciation and a group of stakeholders includ- to commoditization, leveling off yields, surg- model aims at being ethical in the deepest higher temperatures and shifting rainfall ing institutions, private sector and NGOs, we ing adaptation costs to climate change and sense of the term, but also a competitive ad- patterns, will halve the land suitable for cof- worked on a financial model which would increasing product liabilities caused by agro- vantage as it integrates revenue and business fee production. The current coffee consump- provide the coffee growers with collaterals in chemical residues. The new business model goals with environmental and social aspects. tion, estimated in 161 million bags in 2018, order to allow them to do the necessary in- would contribute to meet several SDGs. As illy’s guiding principle in business is to cre- is growing at an average of 2% thanks to the vestment in their own plantations to face the consumer preferences are driven by taste, ate value for all stakeholders along the val- global economic development, and potential climate change challenge. health, price, convenience, with sustainabil- ue chain and pursue sustainability through increase of per capita consumption in pro- illy’s has a consolidated experience in ity as their last priority, our main consum- shared value (economic sustainability), ducing and emerging Countries. public-private partnership: we have collab- er-directed action is to link agronomical personal growth (social sustainability), and Coffee production is very concentrated – orated with UNIDO in Ethiopia since 2015 practices to food healthiness. Our objective respect for the ecosystem (environmental Brazil and Vietnam alone provide more than and more recently in Mozambique, conduct- is to demonstrate the positive contribution sustainability). 50% of the whole production. Total produc- ed educational programs in Colombia with of coffee and its specific components (es- illy whole supply chain is certified, since tion of all other Countries is relatively flat. SENA and cooperated with the Agency for sential nutrients, polyphenols and other 2011, by DNV-GL’s Responsible Supply According to the last analysis, Brazil is one the Reintegration of the former FARC guer- phytochemicals) showing how advanced ag- Chain Process certification, which audits the of the regions with the highest climate risk, rilla fighters in the coffee growing system. riculture (e.g. sustainable, environmentally process against over 60 KPI’s at all the chain’s but also with the largest agricultural land These partnerships are proof that this kind protective, biofortified one) can not only de- levels, while the illy commitment to sustain- and investment capacity. Vietnam is a near- of collaboration can generate a virtuous cir- crease dangerous food components, but also ability is reported every year in our Value new coffee producing Country and it can be cle, aimed to develop and support a sustain- increase those that are protective for health. Report, published online. expected to potentially continue growing. able coffee value chain also in these troubled In short, it is a virtuous cycle driven by Fortunately, this model has influenced the All other origins are either relatively small areas. positive feedback and mutual reinforcement whole coffee world since several years, and in terms of agricultural land or significantly While advancing these new model pro- between each co-benefit demonstrating that we can say that today – thanks to the rise of impacted by climate change and limited in posals for the coffee sector, we are now fo- taking care of the land means taking care of ‘specialty coffee’, the increase of coffee good their investment capacity. The estimation of cusing our research to the first and main ourselves, contributing to meet the 1,5°C or reputation also in terms of health benefits the maximum production would be about emergency that needs to be addressed if we well below 2°C Paris Agreement target, be- and the consequent consumption growth – 240 million bags around 2040. want to survive on this planet: decarboniza- sides the above mentioned SDGs. • coffee’s sustainability has broadly increased, As climate conditions become critical, tion.

Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 15 Are we really ready to risk our own future? Circular Economy for sustainable economy and society / By Dr. Janez Potočnik, Co-Chair UN International Resource Panel, Partner SYSTEMIQ

hile the population in the 20th ultimate scorecard. One to which we must Century grew by a factor of 3.7 now hold ourselves accountable. Certain- W the total material extraction grew ly, one that future generations will judge us by a factor of 8 and GHG emissions grew by against. In this we have a clear North Star a factor of 13. Some of the planetary bound- and there can be no excuses for not finding aries have already been breached. all means necessary to deliver them.” Looking to the reality of the 21st Centu- It is not so difficult to argue and agree ry one can see that few people own the same that most of the above listed challenges as as the poorest half of the world and the rich- well as solutions can be attributed to the in- est 1 % is wealthier than the rest of the world. creasing economic activity of the growing Nearly 800 million people are hungry, over human population, which on one hand re- 2 billion suffer from micronutrient deficien- sulted in a remarkable development of parts cies, while over 2 billion people are obese. of the population, but on the other hand also China has in just three years (2011/13) used in an unjust distribution of wealth, inequali- more cement than United States during the ties, health and environmental pressures and whole 20th century and more than half of impacts. In short, it resulted in social, eco- the cities estimated to exist by mid-century nomic and environmental imbalances. Hu- are yet to be built. We throw away one third man capital, for example healthy citizens, is of the food we produce. in many cases undervalued and natural cap- Climate scientists gave us twelve years ital, such as healthy ecosystems, not valued on the clock to halve the CO2 emissions to at all. Since ‘the market’ is the main mecha- stay inside temperature rise of 1.5 degrees nism guiding our production and consump- Celsius. According to the Living Planet In- tion decisions, and price signals are as they dex we have lost 60% of our biodiversity in are, we should not be surprised by existing the last 40 years. It is estimated that glob- imbalances at all. They are just the logical ally 7 million people die prematurely due consequence of the market signals sent by to air pollution. A million of plastic bottles the central institutions and in a way a proof are bought every minute, only 9% of plastic that markets work. In economic theory, this is recycled, 12% incinerated, 79% ends in phenomenon is known as externalities. landfills or environment. According to the Costs which do exist, but which we deny, latest research an average person consumes which we do not account for, and which pro- 130,000 plastic particles per year if drinking ducers and consumers do not pay for. These only bottled water from that source alone, costs are very real, however, for those who compared to 4,000 if drinking only from the pay them: the health system or, in the ma- tap. We are the first generation more likely jority of cases, the next generation. Luckily to die as a result of lifestyle choices than in- enough for the current generation, the next fectious diseases. In addition one can hardly generation cannot complain. In short, we see the limits of digitalisation potential and live within an economic model, where to a imagine the kind of the world artificial intel- large extent profits are privatised – often by ligence will lead us to. a few privileged, and costs are socialised. We … as well as education particularly in univer- How could that be possible? It can be at- Our socio-economic model and our ex- are environmentally and also socially indebt- sities. The model has been created with good tributed to the structural shift of production istence are obviously seriously challenged. ing future generations. intentions and it is complex to change it, be- from countries that are more resource effi- This was nicely summarised by a well- We all participate as economic actors cause by now it is perceived as almost ‘natu- cient to countries that are less resource effi- known Slovenian philosopher Slavoj Žižek in this globalised economy and we are all a ral’ – however, humans have created it and cient. To put it differently, more products we who said: “It is clear that we are approaching part of the problem and a part of the solu- humans can, and have to change it. Natural are buying today compared to few decades the ecological and digital apocalypse … but tion. One of the conclusions of the UN resource use and its impacts could provide ago, are produced in Indonesia, China, India we should not lose our nerves.” He added a International Resource Panel, which I am the essential lens and a guiding framework … and less in countries like Japan or Europe. famous quote from Mao Zedong: “Every- Co-Charing, is that the “Trade-offs among for this change to ensure true sustainability Consumption of materials is unequally thing under heaven is in utter chaos; the sit- various SDGs are unavoidable and Sustain- with minimal trade-offs between SDGs. This distributed. If measured by Domestic Mate- uation is excellent.” In essence, the challenge able Consumption and Production is the argument is underpinned by the following rial Consumption per capita - all materials is huge and urgent, but we also have unprec- most efficient strategy to mitigate them and key insights. domestic or imported directly used on the edented possibilities. Resources and resource man- territory - upper-middle income countries, For the first time in a hu- agement have so far been largely are already the highest consumers. The key man history we face the emer- For the first time in a human history we the missing link in policy making. drivers are the huge material requirements, gence of a single, tightly cou- face the emergence of a single, tightly The delivery of 12 out of 17 SDGs in particular of non-metallic minerals, in fast pled human social-ecological is directly linked to resources. Let developing countries, like China, needed for system of planetary scope. coupled human social-ecological system me substantiate the importance of new infrastructure and cities. If measured by We are more interconnected of planetary scope. adequate resource management per capita Material Footprint – taking into and interdependent than ever with some of the core findings of account where products are actually con- and our individual and collec- the latest IRP Global Resource sumed - high-income countries, including tive responsibility for our future has enor- create synergies to resolve the development Outlook (GRO) 2019, presented just few EU countries, are still consuming 60% more mously increased. and environmental challenges articulated in month ago. than the upper-middle-income countries The agreement of the Sustainable De- the SDGs.” The change of the existing eco- Global resource use (biomass, fossil fu- and 13 times the level of the low-income velopment Goals (SDGs) was the first im- nomic model to a more just and sustainable els, metals, non-metallic minerals, land and countries. The reason for that is outsourcing portant success in providing us with a logical one (economically, socially and environmen- water) has more than tripled since 1970 and of material and resource intensive produc- and shared answer to the challenges we have tally) is essential if we are serious about our global material demand per capita grew tion, including all connected direct environ- created. By calling for integrated action on all mission to deliver the SDGs. from 7.4 tons in 1970 to 12.2 tons per capita mental pressures, from high-income coun- three dimensions of sustainability SDGs rec- To summarise, we should aim to rede- in 2017, which means that an important part tries to other parts of the world. ognise the deep systemic changes needed. As fine and reorganise our economic model to of the increased demand could be linked to One of the conclusions following the Steven Lang summed up in his recent article be consistent with the SDGs. This is an enor- higher economic activity. Material produc- previous IRP work is also that: “In the mid- Existential Threat: Great Collapse or Great mous challenge, in particular if social con- tivity, the efficiency of the use of resources, term, except in specific cases, resource short- Correction: “We have a unifying template for siderations are also taken into account, but it was growing till the end of the century and age will not be the core limiting factor of our a better world. The 2030 Global Goals pro- would also clearly provide us with new eco- then started to decline and has stagnated in economic development. Thecore limiting vide a powerful focal point to strive for the nomic opportunities and jobs. Our econom- the recent years. Even if material productiv- factors are, and will be even more in the fu- world we need to create. Officially adopted ic model has been created and is maintained ity was growing in all countries during that ture, environmental and health consequenc- by 193 countries, they provide humanity’s by governments, international organizations, period, it was declining on the global level. es caused by this excessive and irresponsible

16 Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 It is thus essential to decouple the growth of human wellbeing and economy from the use of resources and from environmental pressures and impacts.

my is globalised and the rules governing the for the importance of social values, green for transition to the new economic model would the protection of environment and yellow for need to be aligned transnationally. the essential role of culture. We can hardly The introduction of resource efficiency as picture Europe as the centre of the World, a flagship concept into the European Union but we should do everything to ensure that economic strategy (“Europe 2020”), which I Europe remains the center of the dreams of have proposed in 2010, and later the adop- all the people of the World.” tion of the Circular Economy Package in July There is no doubt that the responsibility 2014, were long-sighted starting points to for the implementation of the SDGs lies to a provide a conducive framework for invest- large extent in the developed countries and ments in the strategic transition: to break thus also in the European Union. We need some of the lock-ins. They were not so much to show we are willing and able to change a spontaneous policy choice but a response our current model of production and con- to the inevitable consequences of changes sumption, address our high environmental in Europe’s relative comparative advantage, footprint and move to a more sustainable driven by globalisation and global resource economic and social model. We are, to a pressures. large extent, still mastering scientific knowl- One of the conclusions of the World Eco- edge and technological development and we nomic Forum 2018 was that: “the challenge should help developing countries avoid re- seems to not be one of inadequate scientific peating some of the development mistakes evidence anymore; rather one of cooperation we made and help them leapfrog to the true and implementation. The complexity and sustainability trajectory. scale of these challenges requires a space that Why are the changes to a more sustain- allows actors with responsibility for environ- able economy and society so difficult in mental governance mechanisms to be able practice? I see three essential reasons: to experiment with both new forms of col- First: While the challenges we face re- laboration and more „systemic“ approaches quire a deep systemic change and long-term ... through promoting multi stakeholder co- rethinking of the way how we govern our operation, more agile governance (including societies. Political cycles, public and finan- sub-state actors, such as cities, states and cial institutions, to a large extent also private provinces), the use of new technologies, and companies, have inbuilt short-term focus enhanced accountability and transparency.” and logic. This inconsistency limits our The fact that we are for the first time living ability for efficient and strategic action and in the socio-ecological system of planetary needs to be addressed urgently. scope, demands a redefinition of sovereign- Second: Production and consumption ty and new ways and levels of (global) coop- systems are based on the logic of consum- eration. Using the “circularity” language, we erism fuelled by quantity-driven profits would need more sharing and less owning and growth measured in GDP. GDP could of sovereignty. Unfortunately, some of cur- be best explained by saying, that one will use of resources.” It is not the shortage of and impacts visible in dangerously changing rent trends like Brexit, or “America First”, not reach the goal by walking faster, if one is oil that brought together the national lead- climate, biodiversity loss and various kinds are going in just the opposite direction, walking in the wrong direction! We have to ers in Paris to agree about necessary, even if of pollution. It is thus essential to decouple which is tragic and also worrying. The best fix a broken compass! There is a lack of stra- insufficient, steps to address climate change. the growth of human wellbeing and econo- example of sharing sovereignty, and thereby tegic identification of risks and long-term, It was not the shortage of steel or any oth- my from the use of resources and from envi- strengthening national ability to cope with even mid-term, risk management and there er material, which few years ago forced the ronmental pressures and impacts. The anal- the most challenging problems, is the Euro- is a clear lack of understanding what really Chinese government to close around 2000 yses done by Material Economics showed pean Union. Some decades ago, Europe was matters for our wellbeing in all institutions companies around Beijing, but the polluted that a more circular economy approach is faced with a major challenge to restore peace focusing on GDP. air in Beijing, to which these companies have an essential ingredient in the efficient fight and stability on our continent to avoid con- Third: A transition to a more sustainable contributed with their activities. against climate change. Switching from a flicts and wars in the future. Despite many economy and society will only be possible if GRO 2019 also includes the analyses of linear to a circular economy could reduce challenges the EU still faces today and new it is just, fair and inclusive. We have to make environmental impacts in the value chain EU CO2 emissions from materials (steel, ones that are emerging, the project proved to our societies more equitable and do more in related to resource extraction and processing plastics, aluminium, cement) by 56% the fight against poverty. So- phase. 90% of global land-use related biodi- comparing to the base line, which cial unrest is growing even in versity loss and water stress can be explained already includes the applied energy We are environmentally and high-income countries and it by resource extraction and processing. Over related measures. The shift to shared is high time to hear the echo 80% of both is linked to biomass, majority to mobility has a potential to reduce also socially indebting future of the streets and the voice of agricultural activity. There is no solution of CO2 impacts of materials for 70% generations. a frustrated young generation. land-use related biodiversity loss and water compared to the current under-uti- To conclude. The transition stress without transformation of the agricul- lised private car ownership reality. to a more sustainable economy ture, and broader food systems, to a more This theoretical concept is calledde - and society is unavoidable. sustainable one. Also, half of global climate coupling and it is the essential ingredient for be really visionary and essential for a Euro- However, what is still missing, particularly change impacts can be attributed to resource reorganising economic activity into a more pean future. The world is nowadays facing among policy-makers, is the understanding extraction and processing and one third of sustainable model. a similar challenge as Europe did decades of the urgency. It is absolutely urgent to join the air pollution related health impacts. Circular economy should be understood ago. The alternative of not cooperating more our forces and change sources of instability Meaning, since the consumption phase is not as an instrument to deliver decoupling and while dealing with the complex global reality to (re)sources of stability, as the BSF 2019 is included in analyses, if one would buy a new as a part of the bigger picture of economic, we face, could easily lead to more instability, calling for. And if you are still wondering if car and not drive it at all, one would already societal and cultural transformation needed more conflicts and wars. Europe is thus in an that makes sense, please listen to the advice create one third of the air pollution due to to deliver the SDGs. The European Union ideal position to understand the challenge of prof. Guy McPherson: ”If you think the extraction of the resources needed for the car has already recognised the importance of the ahead, and also credible enough to lead the economy is more important than the envi- and the car production itself. circular economy concept for future sustain- process of addressing this challenge more ronment (I would also add … and health), Resource use and management are the ability as well as for future European com- effectively. As my knowledgeable colleague try holding your breath while counting your linking elements behind the major prob- petitiveness. But it would be essential that from the Prodi’s Commission Pascal Lamy money”. • lems and solutions of all major environ- the concept is accepted and developed also wisely put it while presenting the strategic mental and health challenges. They are the on a global level. This is necessary due to the analyses of the future challenges: “Europe is bridge between drivers and pressures caused challenges we are facing together as human- not only blue with yellow starts. It is a rain- by human activity (economy) and the states ity, as well as due to the fact that the econo- bow - blue for freedom and democracy, red

Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 17 Gender equality in the Euro-Mediterranean: Milestones on the path towards women empowerment in the region / By Nasser Kamel, Secretary General, Union for the Mediterranean

he present article is based on the the Elimination of Discrimination against potential of women, who remain vulnera- Euro-Mediterranean region in general, is findings of the UfM Progress Re- Women (CEDAW), and constitutional asser- ble to stereotypes. This, in turn, affects both the context of both conflict and austerity. A T port on gender equality endorsed tions of equality between men and women. their own decision-making process, as well number of UfM countries are affected by at by the UfM Ministers during the Ministerial Countries have introduced public bodies as the support and opportunities available to least one of the following challenges: armed meeting on Strengthening the role of women and departments at different levels of govern- them. conflict, political unrest, terrorism, influx of in society held in November 2017 in Cairo ment structures that address gender issues Women’s participation in public life is an refugees, or political transition. (Egypt). and have made national strategic commit- area where significant positive changes have Several reports have recounted the cas- Despite numerous international agree- ments. In addition, further positive actions occurred. However, even in countries with es of women who have been brutally killed, ments affirming their basic rights, and uni- have been undertaken at the level of parties, higher women representation in Parliament, or abused and turned into slaves in conflict versal recognition of their key role in society, parliaments and local bodies to increase par- such participation remains at 30% or less in zones by radical groups. Displacement, also, poverty and illiteracy rates remain higher ticipation of women in political life, includ- most UfM countries. Female representation significantly increases women’s risk of being among women than men. Women are also ing the introduction of quota systems. in senior positions in Government struc- subjected to all forms of violence. The ma- more likely to be victims of domestic vio- Legislative and regulatory measures have tures, advisory bodies, local authorities, and jority of cases of violence perpetrated against lence. Their access to economic opportuni- also been introduced in most countries the judiciary remains limited. Quotas have displaced women go unreported. Women ties, credit, training and employment is still to eradicate illiteracy and improve educa- been adopted by many countries, but they in the northern UfM countries have been limited. Moreover, they are less likely to be tional and training infrastructure, prevent remain a contested issue with occasional subjected to other forms of vulnerability actively engaged in politics or obtain leader- gender-based discrimination, and facilitate preference for voluntary targets. because of the economic crisis. Policies of ship positions. the empowerment of women in education. Women’s economic empowerment is spending cuts and reductions in social ser- Progress toward achieving gender pari- Many States have reached or are close to a domain where all countries are strongly vices are undermining efforts to tackle gen- ty worldwide is being made, but it remains reaching enrolment equality in primary edu- committed. However, women experience der violence in Europe. Austerity measures slow according to the World Economic Fo- cation, and an increasing number of women grater obstacles than men when it comes adopted by countries have led to the deterio- rum’s recent Global to accessing both busi- ration of social provisions: cuts to police and Gender Gap report ness and employment. For the criminal justice system, cuts to charities (2018), which finds The biggest gaps to close are in the economic and most countries, women working on domestic violence that are fund- that only 15 countries political empowerment dimensions, which will take are still underrepresented ed by local government. will close their gender in top corporate jobs and Gender equality in the region is also be- gap within the next 202 and 107 years to close, respectively. on boards. Although some ing challenged by ongoing political transi- half century. The big- countries have introduced tions, conflicts and the continued impact of gest gaps to close are quotas and other measures the financial crisis. Political transitions in in the economic and political empowerment are completing university studies, often in such as Corporate Governance Codes and some countries have led to major constitu- dimensions, which will take 202 and 107 higher proportions than men. public targeting setting, they have not been tional changes, while other countries have years to close, respectively. The same conclu- The principle of gender equality is en- fully embraced. And even when women are engaged in a more progressive transforma- sion was confirmed by the first SDG Gender shrined in labor legislations of Member participating in the labor market, their roles tion, which, in some cases, distracted efforts Index1 (2019), which finds that, across the States. Legal amendments have been ad- continue to be more limited than those of from addressing issues such as gender-relat- 129 countries studied, no country has fully opted regarding equal wages and maternity men, despite higher levels of enrollment ed reforms. Furthermore, regional conflicts achieved the promise of gender equality en- leaves. Some countries have also opted for and completion in higher education among and post-conflict situations have resulted in visioned in the ambitious 2030 Agenda. making their financial systems more gen- women. a large number of victims and weigh heavi- der-responsive. Furthermore, countries have Violence Against Women and girls ly on several countries, making it difficult to What about women in the Union for the increasingly undertaken gender analysis of (‘VAWG’) continues to be a major concern in lay the foundations for the advancement of Mediterranean countries? their strategies, policies and laws. both Northern and Southern Mediterranean women empowerment objectives. Progress has taken place in the UfM In spite of those measures, the region UfM countries. In Europe, it was estimat- Member States in relation to women and continues facing considerable challenges re- ed that 13 million women had experienced Better implementation, more impact girls’ rights, and overall, gender equality garding the achievement of gender equality, physical violence in the course of 2014. In measurement and reliable gender data matters have gained significant momentum. and a clear gap perseveres between legisla- Southern Mediterranean Countries, reliable collection systems At institutional and political levels, all UfM tive efforts and implementation. The preva- data regarding the extent of VAWG are not A strong legislative framework and scru- countries expressed their commitments to lence of some discriminatory practices, the available, but research studies and surveys tiny in relation to gender equality is essential gender equality within their constitutional, persistence of an archaic view on the role of show the gravity of such problem. One of for challenging stereotypes and advancing legislative, and international obligations such women, and unequal access to services and the main challenges which are undermining women‘s participation. In this regard, the as laws, commitments to the Committee on resources continue to block the progress and progress towards eliminating VAWG in the key to fostering change will therefore be the

18 Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 adequate implementation of these legal and dition to providing institutional mechanisms texts: women migrants and refugees, women ments and to facilitate the exchange of best regulatory frameworks. In the UfM region, with substantial budgets for mainstreaming in conflict and post-conflict context, wom- practices and partnership opportunities. the positive developments and policies un- and providing training for policy makers. en in rural areas and women with disability. Under this framework, the UfM is currently dertaken by countries, contrast with a reality And last, it would be relevant to evaluate the An attention is also being given to the de- working to establish a regional gender fol- in which discrimination against women and impact of quotas and encouraging the use of velopment of knowledge, research and data low-up mechanism that will be backed-up girls persists at all levels of society. Therefore, legally binding quotas at least on temporary production on gender equality and women with indicators to monitor progress, assess the most identified pressing issues is the ef- basis with penalties in case of noncompli- empowerment in the Mediterranean region. the gap and provide recommendations to fective implementation of these strategies ance. In the absence of quotas, it is recom- The UfM Strategy on Women has been policy makers to advance the gender equal- and their enforcement. Adopted measures mended to implement a system of voluntary progressively built and structured since 2013 ity agenda in the region with participation and legal provisions have not led necessarily codes and targets alongside transparency in coordination with countries and stake- of national statistic institutions and research to an increase in women’s access to economic and publishing progress towards these goals. holders operating in the region, including centers. resources and participation in decision-mak- local authorities, international organiza- Supporting concrete regional initiatives ing and the impact of legal and institutional The UFM framework to promote gender tions, donors, civil society and the private which effectively contribute to the enhance- safeguards to protect women and girls from equality and women empowerement sector. The strategy is implemented through ment of women’s empowerment through the violence is slow to materialize. Promoting gender equality and the role an integrated approach articulated around 3 equal access to leadership and decision-mak- The other structural issue is the insuffi- of women is one of the main priorities of the dimensions that constitute the UfM Meth- ing positions, to education and vocational cient gender mainstreaming in governance UfM. This priority was training, to health, to labour tools, policies and practices. While it is im- confirmed by the Cairo market and to entrepreneurship. portant to adopt laws that explicitly provide UfM Ministerial Declara- Female representation in senior positions in In addition, the UfM pro- for gender equality, it is also essential to en- tion and the UfM Road- motes also a crosscutting ap- sure that all laws and policies reflect gender map for Action where Government structures, advisory bodies, local proach to mainstream gender equality considerations and are implemented the 43 Ministers have authorities, and the judiciary remains limited. equality within all activities and in the right way to avoid different treatment committed to take the initiatives. and/or discrimination. While gender main- necessary measures and And while the UfM has been streaming is increasingly evident across the policies to ensure the equal participation of odology of Work and that acknowledge the successful in many endeavors to develop an UfM region, most policymaking processes women and girls, in economic, social and key importance of expanding and reinforc- ambitious regional Woman‘s Agenda and lay across the region do not have a process for in- political life. ing cooperation, collective efforts and com- the ground for gender equality in the Medi- tegrating gender considerations in a system- plementarities toward advancing the gender terranean, further efforts still need to be un- ic manner. The biggest identified challenges Four priority areas have been identified equality at the regional level. These three lev- dertaken. The path towards gender equality in this regard are: the lack of resources, the by countries: els are as follow: in our region remains long and arduous and lack of capacity/skills to implement an over- 1. Increase women’s economic participation Establishing a regional policy frame- requires further exertions to foster gender all “whole of government” approach to gen- by fostering their labor skills and promot- work for women’s empowerment, through equality in a manner that corresponds to der mainstreaming, limited accountability, ing an equal access to the labor market the UfM Ministerial process on Strength- the ambitions of Mediterranean peoples and lack of monitoring mechanisms across pub- and by creating an enabling environment ening the Role of women in Society, which governments. As such, the UfM Secretariat lic services, and the increased administrative for women entrepreneurs. currently include 4 Ministerial meetings will continue to work with its Member States, complexities, especially with regards to gen- 2. Strengthening women access to leadership held respectively in 2006 in Istanbul, 2009 in international organizations, civil society, and der impact assessments and gender-sensitive positions in public and private sector. Marrakech, 2013 in Paris and 2017 in Cairo. international financial institutions towards budgeting. 3. Combating violence against women and Providing a regional multi-stakehold- unleashing the full potential of women in the It is recommended to develop monitor- girls including in conflict and post-con- er platform for dialogue, launched in May EuroMediterranean region. • ing mechanisms backed-up with concrete flict contexts. 2015, which involves UfM governments, indicators and gender data collection sys- 4. Combating gender stereotypes and fight- regional and international stakeholders and tems that will help to monitor changes and ing against social norms that hinder the civil society organisations. The objective is to better understand the impact of policies full participation of women. to develop a multi-stakeholder framework Endnotes and the root causes of discrimination. Inte- for Dialogue and Technical Cooperation on 1 https://data.em2030.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/ grating gender mainstreaming in an effective Ministers recommend to give a particular gender equality and women empowerment EM2030_2019_Global_Report_ENG.pdf way in all the policies is also needed in ad- attention to women and girls in specific con- in region, to monitor stakeholders’ commit-

Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 19 A world of rules or a world of power The European Union and the geopolitics of big powers / By Iztok Mirošič, Ambassador at Large, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Slovenia

Classical geopolitics – between of national states, increased public debt and multilateralism and multicentrism budget deficit. This, in turn, leads to less po- hange will be significant. We are litical and democratic sovereignty of states, entering a new geopolitical, geo-eco- peoples and citizens, and results in popu- C nomic and geo-technological world lisms and sovereignisms that oppose, among order. A new global competitive environ- others, the international integrations, as in ment has emerged, in which the centu- the case of the EU. “Geo-economics” is ries-long Western influence is faltering. To- always also about geopolitics. day, the influence is shifting to the East. The The most important mutation old rules are falling apart; new ones have not of the modern power and, hence, yet been established. The world disorder is geopolitics, is caused by the fast characterised by a new race of the big pow- and smart technological and ers. It is a struggle between democracy and cyber advances, artificial-intelli- autocracy, accompanied, above all, by pres- gence, robotics, the introduction of new sure on the rule-based world order. The geo- digital currencies (e.g. Libra), virtual social political equilibrium is being created anew. networks, the Internet of things, and big-da- The balance is shifting from multilateral- ta. Entirely new forms of global competition ism, founded upon global liberal political and hegemony are emerging, predominant- and economic order, towards multipolarity ly digital. Connectivity represents a key el- or multicentrism, where the role of inter- ement of new geopolitics and the source of national institutions, organisations and in- political power and global ambition. The ternational law is fading. The international construction of reality is mutating with ev- community is being fragmented into several ident political, economic and social impact. unpopular and on the wane (President competing centres or poles of global pow- With ever increasing speeds, the future is Putin) – and the rising autocracies. Con- er and hegemony. However, the multipolar getting more complex, harder to grasp and sequently, the oligarchic technological oli- States, the rising China and the vindictive world is in fact shrinking and regressing less manageable. 5G will boost up the speed gopolies operate in a dubious manner – as Russia pose serious strategic challenges for into a bipolarity of a new type. It is more and and increase the impact of everything, ren- if exempt from all democratic norms and the EU. The global power is shifting and by more obvious that the true future geopolitical dering the future even more difficult to man- the rule of law. Beyond any legitimacy, they 2050, Germany will probably remain the competition will boil down to the economic age. create worlds parallel to those of states. With only European country among the top ten race between the US and China, engaged in a The revolutionary advances in artificial the introduction of parallel digital/crypto world economies. Some even believe that the new technological cold war. Europe and the intelligence, autonomous mobility and dig- currencies, the (liberal democratic) state and new world will be led by digital platforms, EU are dangerously lagging behind. ital supevising systems will constitute the the existing multilateral economic and finan- which already today hold more power than Multipolarity – or multicentrism – brings foundation of future (state and non-state) cial international institutions may become most countries. about the re-establishment of dangerous power. Already at present, one can observe obsolete. The development of revolutionary The following are the external geopoliti- concepts, such as the spheres of interest or technological developments that change the technologies and artificial intelligence is pre- cal issues that coincide with the EU’s areas influence of big international players, vari- relations between the liberal Western world dominantly led by private, non-state actors, of interest: able alliances, instability, and war. As a result, and the autocratic powers and cause new which implement the geopolitics of digital – On a global offensive, China is a long- Europe/the EU remains a staunch supporter divisions, such as the global internet divide technological platforms. All this results in a term systemic rival for the EU. Technologi- of multilateral cooperation. The incoming between the West (state regulated private en- mutating, even chaotic reality and geopolit- cally, it supports both autocratic and illiberal European Commission president Ursula von terprises in the US, Europe and Japan) and ical disorder. regimes, and thus sustains a global value sys- der Leyen has explicitly confirmed multilat- the East (state controlled internet in China In fact, such circumstances increasing- tem opposing that of the EU. eralism and the “rule-based world order” as or Russia). A possible solution in the interest ly call for multilateral global action and the – With President Trump, his dubious for- the only genuine “European path”. of the democratic West, founded on com- adoption of rules for a new high-tech world. eign policy and erratic attitude towards the mon values, would be the adoption of a “dig- Yet, it is precisely “terrestrial geopolitics” liberal, rule-based world order, the United Mutation of geopolitics in the 21st ital free trade agreement”, which would set that, nowadays, pushes big powers to extend States will remain an unpredictable part- century a global standard, potentially appealing also their conquest beyond Earth orbit. Space ner also for the EU. With a possible second There is no doubt that alternative polit- to China. In this way, the world could avoid is becoming a new element of geopolitics. Trump term, the disruptive policy of the US ical and economic models appear and gain a global digital divide and revive multilater- The new space race will require new norms would probably intensify even further. ground around the globe, posing a serious alism. Today, geo-data represent the hottest and a new rule of law, as well as new con- – The economically stagnating Russia is challenge to the Western liberal-democratic element of geopolitics. Europe should seek trol of arms and exploitation of resources. increasing its military capacity and trying model. The global battle takes place between data and digital sovereignty by developing its The 1967 Outer Space Treaty defines outer to divide the EU and the transatlantic com- three systems: the liberal-democratic model own new-generation digital network system. space as a province of all humankind that munity. Due to sanctions, the cooperation based on free trade, state capitalism, and cy- A big problem in the contemporary is not subject to any appropriation by claim between Western countries and Russia will ber-libertarianism. In a time of new technol- world of new technologies is a Wild West of of sovereignty. Nevertheless, such a general remain limited. ogies and globalisation, the European “state non-regulated new types of digital interac- international law provision is interpreted – In security terms, the EU’s Eastern and of welfare, solidarity, democracy and the rule tion and conflicts. A multilateral framework by some as allowing new (private) players Mediterranean neighbourhoods remain vul- of law” is drifting towards a middle-class cri- with agreed rules and digital ethics is not op- to freely establish their entities in space. nerable. Turkey is moving away from the sis and, consequently, its very foundations erational. The United Nations isobviously Indeed, economic activity in space remains Union. The EU plays no role in the stabili- are under threat. The world is getting less incapable of adopting anything of the kind. non-regulated. This, however, increases the sation of the Middle East or Libya. Northern free. Since 2005, democracies have been on a What is prevailing is the geopolitics of tech- possibility of perilous use of force beyond Africa will continue to be marked more by decline. According to some, the liberal-dem- nological giants. Earth or from space towards Earth. The US, conflicts within the countries than between ocratic states simply cannot take decisions If, in the 19th century, geopolitics was re- France, Russia, China and India have already them. There is no EU strategy aimed at quickly enough to keep up with new tech- lated to the establishment of modern states, established special space military forces and closing the Mediterranean migration route, nologies. Authoritarian, non-liberal systems nowadays, the advanced technologies rad- commands. It is rather evident that already which is shifting towards the Western Bal- (e.g. Russia, China) are able to take deci- ically impact upon the state, the world and today the management of, and any activity kans. sions more rapidly and exploit technologi- geopolitics. Digital platforms are prone to in, space would require a systemic and mul- – The Western Balkan situation is stalled. cal developments more effectively. Through become the new Westphalian states. In rela- tilateral regulation. The region, which is of geostrategic impor- economic, energy and political projects, tion to Big Tech, a democratic, liberal state tance for the EU, is becoming a geopolitical they aim to increase their influence over is powerless. Aiming at profit maximisation, New geopolitical challenges ahead of playground of Russia, China, Turkey and the the countries of Western, liberal democracy, the former prefer collaborating with author- the EU Gulf states, all offering alternative develop- seeing in the latter’s value system a threat to itarian powers. In the future, the power of a In the next decade, the rapid mutation ment models. Reform processes in candidate their existence. By creating divisions within state will be determined with regard to non- of geopolitics and ensuing shifts in world and aspirant countries are at a standstill, the EU, they wish to gain influence and geo- state actors (private megacorporations) or power will undoubtedly affect the global democratic processes are losing ground. The political advantage. They exploit and export depending on the quality and quantity of positioning of the European Union and its enlargement process has been halted pend- digital technological innovations in order to bilateral and multilateral relations of a state, functioning in future multipolar/multilat- ing the internal consolidation of the Union. support autocratic politics worldwide. i.e. on its capacity to become a global hub for eral international relations, which will be – Global warming increases the geopolit- New concepts, such as global de-territo- inter-entity connections. very competitive in terms of not only poli- ical attractiveness of Arctic areas. rialisation of corporate management and It seems that new technologies affect the tics, security and economy, but also of values An advocate of effective multilateralism, the ensuing tax-dumping competition be- emerging (geopolitical) balance between the and governance. Geopolitical future remains the EU has tried to respond to the problems tween states, cause additional indebtedness Western democracies – deemed decadent, rather uncertain. The unpredictable United of a future multicentric or poly-nodal world

20 Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 petitor rather than a geopolitical ally. When A new European Union for a new world for these domains and maintain its techno- united, the EU can exert significant norma- After the formation of the new European logical sovereignty. It will need to strive for tive and geopolitical influence on the world Commission, the EU will have to consider the emerging world (economic) order to be stage. Therefore, the United States should the global geopolitical reality very serious- transformed into a multilateral, rule-based strive for greater transatlantic unity and sup- ly. Failing that, an internally divided Union system; indeed, the world itself needs the port the unity of the European Union, rather may become a mere playground for the big EU, the global leader in the quality of life. than work towards its decomposition. powers. The upcoming five-year term of the The European way of life, which continues to For a successful Europe/EU in the geo- Commission will be decisive for the EU’s role attract millions around the world, should be- political context of a new polycentric world, on the world stage. The main issues, which come sustainable also in the new geopolitical Europeans will need to devote more atten- will critically influence the values of the fu- race of the polycentric world. tion to European diplomacy, security and ture Union, are an effective internal applica- In today’s geopolitical competition of the defence, as well as to the prevention and res- tion of the rule of law and successful migra- big powers, a strong and effective European olution of external conflicts. PESCO, EDA, tion management. The two challenges, along Union is in the interest of its member states EDF and similar institutes represent only with effective decision-making, will also and its citizens. The member states alone, the first step in the establishment of an ef- affect the EU’s global geopolitical role. The even the biggest one, do not have enough by overhauling the Euro- fective European de- autonomous global geopo- pean Security Strategy (2003) fence. Concepts like litical power and leverage. and devising the EU Global Strategy “greater European "If the Union fails to participate in the shaping of If the EU fails to become (2016), and introduced a more flexible strategic autonomy” the world, the world will shape the Union. The EU an important geopolitical concept of global governance. By ex- gain ground also and strategically sovereign ploiting the unique mix of within the Union. simply must become an equal player in the global player, it will drift into insig- soft power, economic The incoming Com- geopolitical race of the big powers." nificance. This would have leverage and dip- mission president adverse consequences for lomatic skill, the von der Leyen has all its member states and the Union has the abil- even mentioned the entire continent, as well as ity to shape glob- building of a European Defence Union. A decisions relating to foreign policy questions for the European norms and quality of life. al geopolitics, as strong US engagement within NATO will probably are to be taken in a more rapid and The mere development of the EU’s soft pow- demonstrated by its only last as long as Russia is seen as a threat. simplified manner – by qualified majority, er will not suffice. Therefore, the planned leading role in the Paris Compact, the Iran In the American eyes, the Russian threat de- not by consensus. However, the consensus changes within the Union – including the nuclear agreement, the Minsk agreements creases with the rise of China. The US atten- for such a radical cut tackling the sover- improved effectiveness of external policy on Ukraine, the migrant agreement with tion is increasingly shifting towards Asia. eignty of the member states, Slovenia among decision-making and the development of Turkey, the free trade agreements and the However, strengthening its geopolitical them, will not be easy to reach. Lacking con- its defence dimension – are a function of its setting of new world norms (GRPR - pro- role will first require the Union to consoli- sensus, the EU will further lag behind other becoming a geopolitical power. The key el- tection of digital privacy). Nevertheless, the date internally and solve the main problems, geopolitical competitors. ements will be unified (not only common) EU can best solve its biggest problems (mi- which strongly affect its unity. Populists con- The European Union ought to be more European foreign and defence policies, gration, security, climate change) through tribute nothing to the EU’s global power and self-assured. It is among the biggest world aimed at strategic sovereignty. Despite the multilateral cooperation. sovereignists make it even weaker. A disunit- markets, the global leader in the fight against EU’s preference for multilateral agreements, The Union will need to adapt to the new ed Union, both internally and in external re- climate change, defender of democracy and hard-power elements will also have to be tak- world of pluralist power. This entails the re- lations, cannot be an equal player in the geo- human rights, as well as development aid en into consideration. Yet, if the Union fails definition of transatlantic relations within political race of the big powers; even more, it and the open trade system, the agenda setter to participate in the shaping of the world, the NATO and with the US bilaterally. Under risks drifting into geopolitical obsolescence. for new technologies and the ethical use of world will shape the Union. The EU simply President Trump, the former guarantor of Against this backdrop, ideas about the diver- artificial intelligence, and staunch support- must become an equal player in the global European post-war security and prosperi- sified integration of the EU or a multi-speed er of multilateral organisations. In order geopolitical race of the big powers. • ty has changed considerably. According to EU come into play. to preserve its moral values and life style, Trump, the EU is a global economic com- it will have to shape global ethical norms

Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 21 How much future for our past? The laboratory for European unity: the Council of Europe @70 / By Tobias Flessenkemper, Head of the Council of Europe Office in Belgrade

shaped their lives for the better. The steps Caucasus and Eastern Europe persisted and in the Parliamentary Assembly (PACE). taken within so few years by parliamentar- increased in intensity. As of 2009, the effects Thanks to the European Movement back in ians, governments and civil society, pushed of economic and financial crisis changed the 1948, participation in the work of the Coun- by the European Movement, are proof of the perception of European integration. The de- cil of Europe is not limited to those two, wish to prevent any repetition of the horrors cision of most voters in the United Kingdom but includes local and regional authorities, and misery that the cataclysm of genocide, in June 2016 to leave the European Union expert bodies with representatives of aca- two European World Wars and mass violence has been a culmination of these develop- demia, civil society and societal stakehold- brought. “Never again” remains the single ments changing the nature and direction of ers, including trade unions and business. All most important driver for European unity. European unity. play an important role in advancing ideas for What does “never again” mean for today’s While it is not the first time in the last 70 progress. This innovation of the Council of and future generations? Starting in 1950, years that rules-based European cooperation Europe´s methodology created the dynam- the Council of Europe put history, learning is under attack, this time many Europeans ics that added further jewels to the crown: and teaching at the centre of a European cit- across the continent seem beset by paraly- the European Cultural Convention (1954), izenship and education and youth agenda. sis and exhaustion in face of these attacks. the European Social Charter (1961), and n 5 May 1949, meeting in London, In August 1953 the first conference on “The There is a sense of apathy and passivity, espe- conventions to protect the natural habitat of the 10 western and northern found- European idea in history teaching” was con- cially in areas where European cooperation humans and non-humans. It included more Oing states of the Council of Europe vened in Calw (Germany). The points raised should deliver and failed in their view to do than 200 European conventions and actions provided Western and later the whole of there have stood the test of time. They are an so. Too little impact is seen for safeguarding covering fields ranging from bioethics to ar- Europe with a unique platform designed to urgent reminder that: “If the younger genera- and realizing the ideals and principles of the tificial intelligence (AI); cooperation mech- bring European citizens and states closer to- tion is not taught recent history by historians, European common heritage. Based on their anisms to develop Democracy through Law gether. They decided to do so in all but cer- they will be left exclusively to the influence own experience, too many people doubt that (Venice Commission), the Group of Europe- tain times of the late 1940s, at the end of a de- of press, film, radio, etc.” (Calw Conference European unity is achieving economic and an States against Corruption (GRECO), the cade that saw genocide, dictatorship, massive 1953). In today´s historically unique situa- social progress. It has become very difficult European Youth Foundation and European destruction and social and economic depri- tion of information disorder these risks are for many citizens, in particular young ones, Youth Centres in Strasbourg and Budapest, vation, as a result of the war that ravaged very real. to see a European purpose in national pol- the European Commission against Racism the entire continent. itics. Many feel unpro- and Intolerance (ECRI), to name but a few. After the defeat of Nazi tected from group-based How can this history be told today? Germany and its allies, Europe's unity has become visible and tangible hate speech, the spiraling countries in Europe saw and thereby contestable to a degree that 70 years information disorder and A future for our past themselves confronted the onslaught of violent The Council of Europe would have failed with the onslaught of ago hardly anyone would have expected. and fact negating nihil- in its ambition had it not invested some Communist dictator- ism. They see too little re- thinking into such questions of heritage nar- ship and the East/West solve to tackle questions ration. 1975 was the Year of the European division manifesting itself as of 1947. The Take the case of Myanmar and the recent of social, ecological and economic renewal Architectural Heritage. With the motto “A struggle for safeguarding fundamental rights tragic events of organized mass violence and in Europe, in a world that has changed dra- future for our past”, the Council of Europe and freedoms in the remaining parts of West- expulsion against the Rohingyas there. It matically over the past few years and where put the protection of material heritage of ern Europe gained critical momentum at the shows us how easily bias and prejudice can human rights and individual freedoms are European towns and villages on the agenda. Congress of Europe in The Hague from 7 to be spun against minorities in environments being challenged by an increasing number of It was a seminal turn for our thinking about 11 May 1948. The Council of Europe was the where no democratic conception of history political leaders. heritage protection, resonating until today. key to creating a better, more humane con- teaching exists and modern communication When probed thoroughly few Europe- Theturn was not to isolate individual aspects stitutional order on the European continent, tools were introduced to almost everyone ans would however question or doubt the or buildings of architectural heritage but to allowing European governments, parlia- within a short period of time but without any need for more common action in economic, maintain the ensemble and the character of ments and non-governmental organsiations media literacy. Realizing the urgent necessi- social, cultural, scientific, legal and admin- places as well as experiment transformation to discuss and develop what it means to be ty to relaunch the Council of Europe’s work istrative matters. More people than ever in into adapted new forms of use. The 1975 her- European in the late 20th century. on history teaching and history textbooks, Europe want the maintenance and further itage year exhibition illustrated this approach On 5 June 1947 at Harvard, Secretary of the French Chairmanship of the Council of realization of human rights and fundamental across the continent: from Novgorod and State George Marshall committed the United Europe Committee of Ministers from May freedoms. This is the result of a remarkable Vilnius, to Bath, Bergen and Bologna, among States of America to European recovery and to November 2019 tasked the distinguished civilizational achievement. The last 70 years many other places. unity. The European Recovery Programme Parliamentarian and promoter of European of European cooperation are now constitut- Keeping the ensemble of rights, freedoms (ERP), also known as “the Marshall Plan”, unity Alain Lamassoure to explore the idea ing a uniquely European element of world and cooperation intact in order allow for new was underpinned by the simultaneous de- of a European Observatory on History Teach- heritage. The question is how this heritage growth is essential for European unity today. velopment of economic cooperation and ing. can help to inspire and lead present and fu- A lesson from the past is that protecting and coordination in the OECD (founded on 16 However, the principle of European uni- ture generations. developing European unity will fail by iso- April 1948). The establishment of NATO on ty has come under attack in the wake of a lating some aspects at the expense of others. 4 April 1949 added a cornerstone to Euro- decade filled with crises. Changing rhetoric European Convention of Human Rights European values risk becoming disfigured by pean security. In two short years between from the United States has more recently How much future for the immediate Eu- tearing apart fundamental rights and free- 1947 and 1949, the key building blocks of challenged European integration. What a ropean past? What constitutes the new layer doms from the development of science and postwar Western Europe were put in place, contrast to the atmosphere and achieve- of joint heritage created by the Council of technology, by neglecting arts, culture and enabling Europe to develop a new culture of ments less than a generation ago. Between Europe and others? The central and largest education or the protection of nature and freedom, human rights, democracy, social 1989 and 1999 the Council of Europe made jewel in the crown of achievements is the landscapes. The real character of European progress, cultural and economic coopera- history within a decade, realising its pan-Eu- European Convention of Human Rights unity is too often hidden, as the European tion and integration. The Council of Europe’s ropean vocation thanks to its new members (ECHR). Signed in Rome in Palazzo Barber- project can seem like an assortments of rules, Parliamentary Assembly immediately used from Central and Eastern Europe, and in ini on 5 November 1950, the convention set standards a norms which seem to have devel- the momentum to advance concepts for su- the 2000s by including the Western Balkans in motion a human rights protection system, oped lives of their own. pranational integration, with the European and Caucasus countries. The foresightful including the Court in Strasbourg, which has Europe unity has become visible and Community of Steel and Coal (ECSC) be- leadership of Secretary General Catherine allowed an increasing number of European tangible and thereby contestable to a degree ing the first result in 1950. The ECSC would Lalumière from 1989 to 1994 made this pos- citizens to realize their fundamental rights that 70 years ago hardly anyone would have be joined by the European Communities in sible. There was also bold commitment from and freedoms. The work on the Convention expected. The success of European togeth- 1957, and become in 1993 today’s European the Heads of State and Government who set also led to the abolition of the death penal- erness needs to be told and reflected upon Union. As a bonus the project of European out a positive agenda of vision and values for ty in all Council of Europe member states. as living heritage and by strengthening the unity could be promoted as a standard set- the Council of Europe in Vienna 1993 and This evolution of the ECHR is testimony to tissue of cooperation and integration so that ter and trail blazer for regional integration Strasbourg 1997. Today, 47 European states the continuity and change over the last 70 it does not become threadbare at breaking worldwide following European decoloni- are members of the Council of Europe and years, as much as the achievements in gender point. The Council of Europe is well placed sation: If the divided, belligerent and mur- the reunification of the continent under the equality, recognition of sexual identity and to spearhead such efforts, not least because derous Europeans can work together, others roof of the Council of Europe was marked LGBTI, the fight against racism and discrim- the diversity of its members and their at might probably be able to do it too. Hence, by a third and to date last Council of Europe ination, including anti-Gypsyism. times deeply difficult relations offer multiple the end of European Great Power expansion summit in Warsaw 2005. On the one hand, the evolutionary inter- perspectives on drawing History Lessons for and colonialism became an opportunity to pretation established by the Court made the Democracy of today and tomorrow. transform global relations towards greater History lessons for today ECHR meaningful throughout time, on the equality between people and states. This spir- From today’s perspective 2005 might be a other hand the jewel only came to shine be- The author is writing in his personal capac- it was espoused in the creation and develop- crucial year for European unity. It was just a cause a new crown was constructed to hold ity. The views set out here are those of the au- ment of the United Nations. year after the EU turned itself from a West- it. Differently from traditional international thor and do not necessarily reflect the official ern into a pan-European organisation thanks organisations, the Council of Europe benefits opinion of the Council of Europe. • Never again! to enlargement. But, also in 2005 a majority from the tensions between Member States Today, some 70 years on, many Europe- of French and Dutch voters rejected further governments’ representation in the Commit- ans are hardly aware of these momentous integration and the EU constitutional trea- tee of Ministers (CM) and the force of the steps, briefly described above, that have ty. Around the same period conflicts in the free deliberations of members of Parliament

22 Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 On democracy and its opponents. Notes from Southeastern Europe Nationalism, with its dichotomy of ‘good vs the other’ is upon us again. If liberal democracy is not protected we are on a dangerous path to inhumanity…again. / By Vedran Džihić, Senior Researcher, Austrian Institute for International Affairs, lecturer at the University of Vienna and Director of Center of Advanced Studies, Southeastern Europe (CAS SEE)

powerful but clientelist and corrupt system based on alleged reforms, on deregulation and on restructuring. Such a system is ac- companied by a whole set of neoliberal dis- courses on pragmatism, efficiency, economic reforms, etc. At the same time it completely neglects the social dimension of deepening inequalities, low wages, a new precariat, and unbearable life conditions for parts of the population.

Hope as practice – Quest for new democratic engagement of citizens Ágnes Heller, the great philosopher who died recently, had one major message she kept repeating in the last years of the life: ‘Liberal democracy is imperfect, in some places more imperfect than in others. But we do not have anything else to protect. This is the only thing we can protect.’1 I am convinced that protecting liberal democracy can only be achieved by renewed democrat- ic engagement of citizens based on renewed hope that better and more just societies are possible. One particular form of engagement is the one that we see in social movements or pro- test movements, particularly in Southeast- ern Europe. Not all protest movements are ‘progressive’ by nature; they may very well be conservative or nationalist. In the region we have seen strong reformist, democratic forms of social engagement with huge poten- ere are some of the book titles trend- are open attacks on fundamental rights, free- alization is dangerous as it operates on the tial to rejuvenate the notion of democracy. ing in the past few years: ‘How de- doms and liberal values, obstruction and basis of the politics of fear – the motto being The “Colourful Revolution” in North Mace- H mocracies die’, ‘Democracy in crisis’, dominance of formal state institutions and ‘demonizing the other to protect ourselves’. donia stands as an important milestone and ‘democratic rollback’, ‘Competitive authori- clientelism combined with a strong nation- The most dangerous aspect of nationalist role model for democratic change. Protests tarianism’, ‘The new totalitarian temptation.’ alist rhetoric. In Europe specifically, partic- demonizing or ‘othering’ is not only the rhe- in Bosnia and Herzegovina (‘Justice for Da- All of them suggest that something has gone ularly since the beginning of the so called torical but also real exclusion of those that vid’), Serbia (‘One of five million’) and recent wrong with liberal democracy, that a certain ‘refugee crisis’ of 2015, a new populist and do not belong to us. In the Western Balkans protests in Romania, do represent a funda- fatigue and a state of crisis have replaced the nationalist, mostly right wing discourse has the ‘others’ could be Albanians, Bosniaks, mental critique against the “untouchable” era of vitality and functionality of democra- become more prominent. The proponents of Croats, Serbs. In Europe the ‘others’ are im- political elites, against injustice, corruption, cy. Admittingly, there are migrants, ‘foreigners’, malfunctioning of state and economy, and few scholars and thinkers Roma, etc. generally against non-democratic political trying to make a counter- The idea of exclud- practices. point and arguing against It seems that the era in which liberal democracy was ing the ‘other’ has be- A new enlightenment is needed, argues the cultural pessimist a predominant socio-political system rapidly spread- come normal. Once the young Spanish philosopher Marina view of decline. Steven that happens, an even Garcés,2 a radical enlightenment based on Pinker’s book ‘Enlight- ing across the globe, has come to an end. greater danger looms the education, on a re-thought relationship enment now’ is probably – a constant evolution between the knowledge and emancipation, the most powerful recent of who constitutes the fighting against the authoritarian will and account of optimism based on facts, spread- this new right wing nationalism claim that ‘other.’ It could be political opponents or retrotopian visions of the society (Zygmunt ing the message that ‘life is getting better’ protecting the purity of “our” cultural na- someone that looks different. Where does it Bauman). I am deeply inspired by citizens and liberal humanism is prevailing. The de- tions against (mostly Muslim) immigrants, stop? This, indeed, is a very dangerous path. of the Balkans that are resisting and fighting bate is controversial and the situation across and by doing so protecting the national sov- A new type of (semi-)authoritarian gov- authoritarian power. I am convinced that the the globe varies. Therefore, a closer look at ereignty, is the ultimate task. What has fol- ernance has emerged, not only in Europe fight for new enlightenment has to be en- specific regions may tell us more. lowed is a continuous rise of populist and and the European neighborhood but also trenched in the principle of hope, including How can we describe times that we live nationalist parties all over Europe. globally. This trend is partly building up political hope based on the universal princi- in? It seems that the era in which liberal de- on new populist and nationalist moment ples of human dignity, freedom, justice and mocracy was a predominant socio-political New nationalist ‘Othering’ and and is partly a consequence of weaknesses equality. system rapidly spreading across the globe, authoritarian governance of formal institutions and democratic po- Martha C. Nussbaum – In her recent has come to an end. Populist nationalism is on the rise in the litical culture. As Charley Tilly put it in the account on “hope”3 introduced the term So, where to begin the story about de- Western Balkans too. Whatever definition we early 2000s, “de-democratization” seems to “practical hope”, one ‘that is firmly linked to, mocracy and the crisis of democracy? It take, populism always includes an attempt to be immanent to any kind of democratiza- and energizes a commitment to action.’ If all is difficult to say, especially in the case of turn the symbolic and emotional project of tion. It has also become increasingly clear types of hope-based actions – be it in form of Southeastern Europe (or particularly in the an exclusively defined ethnic/cultural group that liberal democracy is only one possible protest movement, through civil society en- Western Balkans) – where we are witnessing into a political, nationalist project. Such a final outcome of democratization processes. gagement, through investigative journalism a regression of democratic standards and process ultimately results in divisions, in Forms of rule and regimes beyond democra- (to name only a few) – continue engaging values before democracy has ever managed putting borders and demarcation lines to cy with strong man und ruling parties “run- and fighting for just, democratic, equal, and to become the “only game in town.” the forefront. The process of drawing new ning the show” have proven to be perceived livable societies, freedom will ultimately pre- I believe that there is no space for rela- boundaries (in Europe for example since the as attractive, flexible, and partly functional vail. • tivism – freedom is under attack again. And refugee movements of 2015) and reiterating alternatives to democracy. Such regimes yet, contexts, circumstances and reasons old ones (like in the Balkans following the are seemingly able to reconcile competitive why such attacks are not only possible, but wars of the 1990s) is an integral part of the elections, multi-party systems, parliaments, seem plausible and justified to so many peo- nationalist mobilization that we see today. constitutions and other elements usually as- ple, have to be found in “thick descriptions” This mobilization goes hand in hand with sociated with liberal democracies with the Endnotes

(Clifford Geertz) of stories. Scholars and ex- the moralization of the community. “Our” functional logic of authoritarianism and the 1 Ágnes Heller: Orbán is a tyrant, PoliticalCritique.org, perts discuss the decline of democracy under community is portrayed as authentic, brave, mechanisms and techniques often applied by 13.8.2018, http://politicalcritique.org/cee/hungary/2018/agnes- heller-orban-is-a-tyrant/ various terms including authoritarianism, pure and morally on a higher ground than authoritarian regimes. 2 Marina Garcés, Neue radikale Aufklärung, Turia+Kant, Wien-Berlin 2019 despotism, illiberalism, nationalist and far the community of “others”, which is endan- Curiously enough, these new regimes 3 Martha C. Nussbaum, The Monarchy of Fear. A Philosopher right populism. What unites such regimes gering our moral consensus. Such a mor- use democracy as a façade for establishing a Looks at Our Political Crisis, New York 2018, p.204

Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 23 The promises and perils of Big Data Will Big Data bring big benefits for all, or will it only increase sociopolitical inequalities? / By Jolene Creighton, Editorial Director of Boma Global

t has been less than fifty years since used to offer advice regarding everything ses have revealed that a number of data sets er scientists and engineers alone. We need computers entered mainstream soci- from the specialists that patients should see aren’t reflective of the general population lawyers who are well versed in the unique I ety, and already, virtually every indus- to the kinds of interventions and treatments and are saturated with biases. challenges that exist at the intersection of try is saturated with information. According they may need. In one case, researchers at Google found big data, security, and privacy — individu- to reports produced by DOMA, more than Such machine-assisted decision-making that, although the United States accounts for als who can verify that data is being used in 2.5 quintillion bytes of data are created ev- saves time and lowers the cost of medical just 4% of the global population, it contribut- our political and social systems in a way that ery single day, and the rate of production is assessments, which increases the number of ed over 45 percent of the data for ImageNet, respects basic human rights and adheres to increasing annually. By next year, it is esti- patients that can be treated and helps boost a database of labeled images that’s used to existing laws, especially laws that are related mated that more than 1.7 megabytes of data access in underserved regions. This has al- train image classification algorithms. Mean- to discrimination. will be created each second for every single lowed us to both improve life quality and while, China and India combined, which ac- Given the rapid pace of change, our edu- person on Earth. avoid preventable deaths. And by using sim- count for over 36 percent of the global popu- cational institutions will also need to reform This is the era of big data. ilar data collection and analysis processes to lation, contributed just 3 percent of the data. and start focusing more on critical thinking From genomics and astronomy to health- monitor health trends across a population, As a result of this skew, algorithms that were and problem-solving skills. This will help en- care and policing, this deluge of data is trans- we have successfully predicted epidemics trained on the ImageNet data set were prone sure that future generations of lawyers and forming our understanding of the world and and have started targeting and tailoring in- to errors and biases. They would use words scientists can keep pace with the advances revolutionizing how we make decisions. terventions for vulnerable groups. like “woman” and “bride” to correctly label in data-driven technologies, efficiently and Judgements that were once left to humans In the future, new data-driven technol- an image of a traditional U.S. bride, but they accurately assessing novel applications and alone are increasingly being handed off to ogies could be deployed to coordinate and would mislabel an image of an Indian bride responding accordingly. complex algorithms, which analyze massive analyze other data swaths that are current- with words like “costume.” Put simply, the solutions we need will swaths of data and counsel Similar biases found in demand a close collaboration across indus- us on how it should be inter- other data sets have resulted tries, educational institutions, and governing preted and what actions we in black defendants in the U.S. bodies — both nationally and internation- should take as a result. By next year, it is estimated that more than being falsely flagged as future ally. As Pascal Weinberger, an AI researcher We can already see the ef- criminals and facial-analysis and founder, notes, “data and computer sci- fects of this cognitive shift at 1.7 megabytes of data will be created each programs failing spectacu- entists’ trainings focus on looking at distri- play in a number of sectors. second for every single person on Earth. larly when it comes to iden- butions and analyzing data sets, but many In precincts, predictive anal- tifying non-white individuals of the people who end up using these tools yses trained on historical — even going so far as to mis- don’t have the necessary training or expertise crime data help direct offi- take members of Congress for to properly analyze this information.” Scien- cers’ patrol routes by forecasting where and ly too multifaceted and complex for us to convicted criminals. And when it comes to tists will need to work hand-in-hand with when a crime is likely to occur. Once suspects make sense of, allowing us to better predict healthcare, data-driven technologies aimed the industry experts and policymakers who have been taken into custody, big data is fed complicated phenomena like the weather or at identifying neurological diseases like Alz- are charged with overseeing the implemen- into recidivism algorithms to help us shuffle changes in the job market. They could even heimer’s, Parkinson’s, and multiple sclero- tation of a predictive system. This will help defendants through the legal system. These be deployed to analyze learning behaviors sis have been shown to exclude individuals ensure that the proper individuals are able to risk assessment tools offer advice regarding and improve students’ educational outcomes. from non-Western nations. understand the veracity of both the data set the rehabilitation services that should be ob- Although it is impossible to fully under- It’s clear that, if we are to secure a future and any conclusions that are made using it. tained, whether or not a defendant should be stand the exact ways that big data will impact where big data is used for the betterment of Finally, in order to truly verify the accura- confined ahead of their trial, and even how our world, it is clear that virtually no aspect all, we will need more and better data and cy of our data sets, we would greatly benefit severe a convict’s sentence should be. of society, or human decision-making, will computer scientists to address the technical from shared data standards and collaborative When it comes to healthcare, in partic- be left untouched. As Kenneth Cukier and and ethical demands of our increasingly data data exchanges. We need to develop sound, ular, the impact of big data has been pro- Viktor Mayer-Schönberger note in their driven world. international data guidelines that guarantee found. In urban centers, some outpatient landmark text on big data, “big data is poised To begin with, we need to ensure that quality and ensure that data sets from differ- departments see more than 10,000 people a to shakeup everything from businesses and experts are trained on proactive strategies ent origins are compatible for pooling. These day. This excessive pace of patient intake and the sciences to healthcare, government, ed- to de-bias data, such as implementing data pools should be rigorously tested and regu- outtake pushes many health facilities to the ucation, economics, the humanities, and ev- collection techniques like stratified random larly audited to verify that the data is neutral, breaking point, leading to misdiagnoses and ery other aspect of our society.” sampling. At the same time, they must know representative of the appropriate population, patients receiving subpar care. However, big This is an exciting pronouncement, but how to reduce bias amplification by, for ex- and secure. data has allowed researchers to create new it should give us pause — because not all ample, imposing model constraints to spec- Until these cross-collaborative workflows diagnostic applications that assist with pa- data is created equal. Although it is possible ify the statistical distribution of predictions are established, it will remain unclear wheth- tient processing and assessment. These tools to make predictions and extrapolate mean- or designing sampling rules that regulate er big data will enhance society and increase monitor the care that is provided, track im- ingful information from large data sets, the how the outputs generated from predictions the quality of life for citizens or serve only to provements or deteriorations in health, and veracity of the conclusions that are generated are fed back into the system. increase sociopolitical inequalities. • analyze medical images to identify tumors will only be as good, and as neutral, as the Yet, the problems posed by big data must and other signs of illness. This data is then data set itself. And alarmingly, recent analy- not be relegated to the domain of comput-

24 Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 Learning and teaching in the era of Artificial Intelligence The promise and implications of Artificial Intelligence in Education / By Dr. Jernej Pikalo, Minister of Education, Science and Sport of the Republic of Slovenia

rtificial intelligence1 (AI) is one of atory learning environments should be used? AI challenges the role of education in so- Current ideas about lifelong learning might the central challenges and topics of Can we imagine a completely open, glob- cieties in many respects. Firstly, AI requires need to be up-scaled into a model of contin- A the era of converging technologies al and transparent educational environment a rethinking of the societal role of education. uous education, including the development with profound implications for human be- that is guided by AI? An environment, which The labour displacement caused by some of other types of degrees and diplomas. ings, cultures, societies and the environment. will be constantly adapting to individual forms of AI requires, among other measures, Slovenia has a long track record of re- AI is likely to transform the future of educa- needs and preferences and make learning a the retraining of employees, and a new ap- search in AI being involved from the early tion, sciences, culture and communication. personalized and enjoyable experience? proach to formulate the final qualifications start in 1970. There are more than 300 re- While AI has the potential to transform AI holds the potentials to overcome of educational programmes. Moreover, in a searchers in AI making Slovenia one of the the future of humanity for the better and in some of these challenges, such as reducing world of AI, education should empower cit- leaders of AI research capacity per capita. favour of sustainable development, there is barriers to access education, automating izens to develop new forms of critical think- Slovenian research institutions and our four also a prevailing awareness of the risks and management processes, analysing learning ing, including “algorithm awareness” and the main universities are well connected to all challenges associated with it, particularly in patterns and optimizing learning processes ability to reflect on the impact of AI on infor- main AI research centers across the world terms of deepening existing inequalities and with a view to improving learning outcomes. mation, knowledge, and decision-making. A and actively involved in numerous interna- divides. In order to sketch possible scenarios There is no doubt that AI will revolutionize second field of ethical questions regarding tional AI communities. and unlock AI’s potential to grasp develop- the delivery and management of education AI and education concerns its role in the ed- Slovenia is aware that we should be cogni- ment opportunities, while managing risks, it and learning, but the key question is how AI ucational process itself, as an element of dig- zant of the AI divide and the AI development is important to develop a more comprehen- can improve learning outcomes. And while ital learning environments, educational ro- disparities across countries, and be mindful sive understanding of how botics, and systems for “learning that without a local sustainable ecosystem societies are transformed analytics”, all of which require for developing AI technology for education by disruptive technologies, Can we imagine a completely open, responsible development and and other sectors, the resources will be fur- such as AI. implementation. Finally, engi- ther drained by AI developers. Governments For education and learn- global and transparent educational neers and software developers and institutions should aim to make a transi- ing, there is a consensus that environment that is guided by AI? should be appropriately trained tion from a pure consumer driven approach, the impact of AI has its ben- to ensure responsible design and which is characteristic of the business sector, efit-risk duality. To reinvent implementation of AI. to joint-development and self-development the education systems in the AI, therefore, will urge soci- approaches. era of AI, policy makers will need to examine we believe that teachers will not be replaced eties to rethink education and its social roles. This is the aim of the new International benefits and potential risks of AI in the con- by machines by 2030, we still need dynamic Traditional formal education might no lon- Research Centre on AI under the Auspices text of inclusive, equitable, quality education reviews and social dialogue on how AI will ger be enough in the rise of digitized econ- of UNESCO that my Government proposed and lifelong learning opportunities. I sup- transform teachers’ roles. This will require a omies and AI applications. Until now, the to establish. Its goal is to connect AI research pose, when we speak about AI in education, transformational approach to teacher train- standard education model has typically been centres across the globe into an open and in- we need to address some key challenges. ing and we need to provide continuous sup- to provide core knowledge and has focused clusive international network that will gather Firstly, what should students learn? port to prepare teachers to work with AI in on formal literacies like reading, writing and experts from various fields, and tackle the What is the impact of AI on the curriculum an AI-rich education environment. mathematics. In the 21st century, informa- wider questions related to AI. The Centre and renewal of core essential concepts - what To maximize AI’s benefits and mitigate tion and knowledge are omnipresent. This will conduct research, educate and provide should be added, what removed? To address its potential risks for education, system-wide demands not only data literacy that allows mechanisms for building capacities in AI in this challenge, we must use a multi-disci- planning and collective actions to reinvent students to read, analyse and efficiently man- any part of the world. plinary approach and bring together theories the core foundation of education and learn- age this information, but also “AI literacy” to With continuous development of policies and methodologies from fields including AI, ing are required. To achieve this, in Slovenia enable critical reflection on how intelligent and mechanisms, we need to ensure that AI cognitive science and education. we are starting to test the AI readiness of all computer systems have been involved in the is open, transparent and accountable. This Secondly, the innovations AI brings to stakeholders particularly policy makers, sys- recognition of information needs, selection, is why we need to work together to develop the field of education and training. There are tem managers, and teachers. interpretation, storage and representation of education that is global, open, transparent, many promises and still unforeseen implica- Building on its mandatory roles of labo- data. inclusive, dynamic and enjoyable. • tions of AI for teaching and learning, such as ratory of ideas, normative instrument devel- Moreover, in a continuously developing how AI works in education, what is the na- opment and consensus building, our govern- labour market, the educational system can no ture of knowledge, and how is it represent- ment is committed to acting as a convener longer aim to educate people for one specific ed? How can an individual student be helped among the civil society, media, the technical profession. Education should enable people Endnotes in the process of learning? Which styles of community, academia, and the cultural and to be versatile and resilient, prepared for a 1 While there is no one definition of “Artificial Intelligence” (AI), teaching techniques are effective, and when creative industries in exploring the best pos- world in which technologies create a dynam- debate tends to focus on machines capable of imitating certain func- tionalities of human intelligence, including such features as perception, should they be used? What types of AI tech- sible ways to leverage AI for sustainable de- ic labour market, and in which employees learning, reasoning, problem solving, language interaction, and even niques, intelligent tutoring systems, explor- velopment. need to retrain themselves on a regular basis. producing creative work.

Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 25 Central and Eastern Europe at the heart of the EU The evolving Russian – Chinese relationship will impact Central Eastern European countries and thus affect the unity and stability of the EU / By Katja Geršak, Executive Director, Centre for European Perspective and Editor-in-Chief of Bled Strategic Times

eopolitics is upon us again. The vironment in which the EU, aided by an ir- of territorial might. In that sense it has been Initiative, promply making it the 17+1 Ini- global power is shifting from West replaceable alliance with the US, flourished. through a particularly rough thirty years, tiative. This too should give pause to Russia. G to East and the coming decade will The global migration of power to the East with territorial losses in Easter Europe and Russia will also have to contend with be marked by an intense geopolitical rivalry will have profound consequences for Europe Central Asia. It has witnessed first a rise of China in the East where they share a ter- between the US and China. Other resurgent in the coming decade. Beyond the US-China NATO on the east and now a rise of China ritorial border. The Chinese population is regional powers are also increasingly assert- dichotomy, the Russian-Chinese relationship on its western border. Yet Russia still per- heavily concentrated in the eastern part of ing their political and economic interests. A will greatly influence security and geopoli- ceives Eastern Europe as well as Central China and there is a steady flow of Chinese multipolar world will be much more inse- tics in Europe. After all Europe, China and Asian states as vital to its security and po- migrants settling in far-east Russia in search cure and unstable. Russia are positioned on the Eurasian conti- litical interests. China has its eye on both of a better life. The Russian population is In our globally interconnected world, nent and geography still very much matters. of these regions. It is becoming a significant concentrated in the western, European part projecting power also involves projection While the EU remains a mighty force player in Central Asia, a region bountiful in of the contitnent and the regions bordering of global might in high tech development as with the second largest economy globally, it natural resources which the Chinese market China remain sparcely populated. The fluid- well as projection of culture and values. Chi- has also failed to achieve greater unity and craves, but which Russia still views as ‘its ity of that border is an item on the agenda of na has become representative of the fact that political integration. Therefore it is entering backyard.’ By investing heavily in infrastruc- Russian-Chinese relations, which is, sooner huge economic leaps and social progress are this era of multipolarity with a number of ture (roads and pipelines) China is drawing or later, going to become more prominent. possible without a system of liberal democ- challenges stemming from within. Political the region closer. The interests of Russia and Russia is increasingly going to perceive Chi- racy. Rule of law is no longer the only game differences, economic divergence and social China in Central Asia already diverge, the na as a growing challenge to its interests in in town and it cannot be taken for granted. inequalities between EU member states will gap will only grow bigger. the East and West. Furthermore the Chinese government is make the Central and Eastern member states China entered Central and Eastern Eu- using Artificial intelligence and big data as particularly vulnerable to meddling by out- rope through the 16+1 Initaitive. While the Beggar thy neighbour a way of increasingly controling its citizens side powers. stated objectives are purely economic, it The evolution of Chinese – Russian re- specially when dealing with minorities. would be hard to overlook the geographical lationship is not one of two equal powers There are a number of authoritarian states The evolving Russian-Chinese fact that the majority of countries included destined for rivalrly but is increasingly being which consider such a system of control a relationship in the Initiative belonged to the former Sovi- skewed in favour of China. boon. Therefore the world will increasingly Russian-Chinese relations have had their et Union or what in the Cold War was known Russian economy remains dependent on be divided between democracies struggling fair share of ups and downs. In the past de- as the Eastern Block. Russia still views this revenues from natural resources (natural to maintain a rule of law based political sys- cade they have strenghtened and a partner- region as strategically important. Again, the gas, coal, oil hydropower) which its leader- tems and authoritarian states using the latest ship between them was further solidified in interests of Russia and China will soon di- ship has used to quadruple its military bud- technology to control and when need be re- 2014 after the Russian invation of Crimea. verge here too. get. President Putin has not implemented press their citizens. But this friendship is not bound to last. The Chinese have also acquired the port reforms that would make Russia more at- The Global unipolar moment of the West Russia, the largest but mostly flat conti- of Pirrei in Greece as one of the entry points tractive not only for investment but namely provided a relatively secure geopolitical en- nental power, defines its security in terms to Europe. Greece now entered the 16+1 as a role-model for the former Soviet Union

26 Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 countries of Central Asia. Russia is also fac- EU – state of play are calling for greater sovereignty, for ‘less pursuing a policy that aims to weaken the ing a population decline, current trends in- How will this rivalry impact on Europe? EU’ and are in favour of ‘taking back control.’ unity and coherence of the EU and NATO. dicate that population will shrink from 141 In what shape is the EU entering this new One of the key reasons is the rise in inequal- China, on the other hand, is using its vast fi- million to 111 million in 2050. The percent- multipolar era? ity within the majority of EU member states nancial means to raise its political influence age of muslim population is growing and The EU remains a place to which millions over the past decade, which has helped in re- in the region. It is hard to overlook that the will, in parts of the country, reach up to 20% of people around the world aspire to migrate surgence of latent nationalisms. 17+1 initiative includes countries, which in the coming decade. Russia will threfore in hopes of creating a better life. EU’s attrac- Europe is lagging behind US and China, are also of strategic interest to Russia. CEE have to invest more into maintaining social tiveness shows that values do matter and de- the top two tech innovators. None of the countries will increasingly be caught up in cohesion of its society and technology giants come from the complex relationship between Russia and be faced with minority is- Europe and with the cur- China. Therefore it is imperative that the EU sues, which may include rent levels of investment into designs its policy towards China with greater not just muslim but Chi- Beyond the US-China dichotomy, the R&D, nobody is expecting the unity and clarity, starting with screening and nese minorities too. Russian-Chinese relationship will greatly EU to be a potential leader of coordination related to Chinese investment Given the Russian ac- digital economy of the future. in the EU and greater transparency related rimonious relations with influence security and geopolitics in Europe. The EU will not project glob- to funding of academic, think tank and other the West, it is becoming al power as a unified entity in organizations. more and more dependent financial, military or political CEE is of key importance to EU’s wider on the Chinese market. terms in the coming decades. stability. A prosperous region that is pro- Russia is increasingly diverting oil to China, mocracy is a brand. The EU has contributed Despite of it having the market and people gressively closing the gap with the most de- purchasing advanced weapons systems from to economic growth and social development potential for doing so. veloped EU countries, thus further rooting China and increasing the share of yuan in in all of its member states. With a vibrant its interests, social and economic well-being its foreign currency reserves (in an effort to economy, it remains an attractive destination Centrality of CEE within the EU, will be less susceptible to the avoid the dollar). In addition Russia has re- for investment. The absence of EU as a unitary political courting (and meddling) of outside players. cently signed a deal with Huawei to develop However it is not all sunshine and roses. and military force, the unpredictability of US CEE region should be more connected. Ini- its 5G equipment. Russian President Vlad- Lately we seem to be spending much more partnership, a revisionist Russia and a grow- tiatives, such as the Three Seas Inititative, imir Putin once said that the country with time discussing EU’s problems. With Brex- ing China leave Central Eastern European should be welcome as they strive to further the most developed AI will rule the world. it, the EU is losing an important economic (CEE) countries particularly vulnerable. elevate the development of the region. US In a Machiavellian twist of faith, the Russian and political power. While the process itself CEE is still battling with its past in terms of engagement in the region should not be President will now be getting AI (at least the has sparked a boost in unity and popularity economic and socio-political development. viewed as an unwanted intrusion but should hardware) from China. among EU’s continental citizens, it will still ‘Eastern European citizens still earn about be taken in the context of further strength- As the balance of relations tilts towards leave the EU weaker. The Franco-German 40% less than the average European. Despite ening the Transatlantic partnership. After all, greater Chinese influence, there may also be motor is losing steam – it is less coherent and significantly higher growth rates, income it is a partnership of democratic countries, an opportunity for a strategic reset of Russian seems to lack strategic depth. There is a need levels in Eastern European countries remain which seek to promote a rules-based inter- relations with the West. Such shifts are cer- to deepen EU integration. The lesson of 2008 significantly below that of EU-15 countries.’1 national world order. tainly not unprecedented. One of the factors financial crisis has (or should have) taught us The gap is not likely to close anytime soon. Deeper integration is crucial to our com- which will crucially impact Russian-Europe- that we need further fiscal integration (and Democracy and rule of law in CEE remains mon European future. The only path leading an relations is the political path that Russia consequently also political) integration to vulnerable to upswings of populism and na- to a secure and prosperous Europe is ‘more chooses in the long-run. Whether it will pick ensure Eurozone’s endurance during cycles tionalism. The rule of law is not yet deep- EU.’ • a path of greater control over its population of economic downturn and in turn provide ly entrenched in countries of CEE, which though developing AI technology or turn in greater political stability in the future (as means that backsliding is a real possibility. a more liberal – a more European - direction. economic hardship results in resurgent na- Russia, which has a vested interest in CEE, Endnotes tionalisms within Europe). However, in real- continues to upgrade its military and partic- 1 ‘How Unequal Is Europe? Evidence from Distributional National Accounts, 1980-2017’ Thomas Blanchet, Lucas Chancel, Amory Gethin, ity many populist politicians within the EU ularly its hybrid capabilities and is actively April 2019, pg 25-26)

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generali-OGLAS-ZNPM-265x210-00.indd 1 09/08/2018 10:07 Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 27 The politics of migration Europe´s migration crisis is far from over – it has just changed shape / By Camino Mortera-Martinez, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for European Reform

European and national officials in charge of migration policies are faced with the fallout of decisions based solely on identity questions. Take the EU’s latest efforts to find a way out of the asylum deadlock. The Italian government has rejected offers to reform the Dublin sys- ust when it looked as if the European tem in a way that would take asylum seekers Union's migration problems were fi- off its hands, even though accepting it is clear- J nally behind us, they have bounced ly in Italy’s best interest in the long term. back with a vengeance. This time, however, Migration will surely be at the top of the they have less to do with the number of people agenda once the new EU administration takes coming to Europe and everything to do with office on 1 November. However, the new top the emotive politics of migration. Even though EU team faces both a political and a policy irregular arrivals are at their lowest level for problem that will make it very difficult for five years and down by 90 percent since the them to solve the Union's migration woes. peak of the 2015 crisis, Europeans say they are First, the politics. The incoming EU admin- more concerned about migration than about istration lacks strategic foresight. EU leaders the economy, climate change or crime. The fact and political families did not nominate von that attitudes towards migration do not appear der Leyen, Michel, Borrell and Sassoli because to correspond with the number of arrivals they had a particular vision for Europe. They shows that other factors are at work. Populist appointed them because the alternative was and nationalist politicians across Europe have not on offer. Surely, all of them are experi- tapped into voters’ concerns about migration enced politicians who will undoubtedly do a and help fuel them further. This state of panic decent job. Nevertheless, they are also rather has proved to be fertile ground for nativist po- predictable politicians (all from Western Eu- litical parties across the EU. rope) at a time a populist wave is sweeping the On the face of it, citizens are being present- world. They will also have to navigate a Par- ed with a binary choice: either vote for those liament and a Council of Ministers that are who think the only way to control migration is fragmented as never before. Von der Leyen not to have migrants at all, or support those on has already made a number of contradictory the other end of the spectrum who think Eu- promises to several political groups to secure rope is a little more than a fortress. There is no her nomination, including the migration crit- coherent migration narrative coming from the ics from Poland and Hungary. Yet, she and her peers will soon realise that it is not possible to solve the EU’s political mi- gration problem by trying to appease On migration – as in so many other policy the populists. In fact, this will only areas – fact-based debates have given way make them stronger. The incoming EU administration’s to emotionally charged conversations. policy problem with migration ensues directly from its political dilemmas. The new EU top team faces an inter- esting challenge: not only will the new political centre ground, which allows the con- leaders need to design migration policies that versation to be dominated by more extreme work; they will also need to be appealing and anti-migration elements who often also shout convincing to all sides of the spectrum. This is the loudest. A quick look at social and other a near-impossible task: on migration – as in so media would seem to confirm this theory. many other policy areas – fact-based debates And yet, recent scientific research shows have given way to emotionally charged con- that real life is more complicated. In most versations. Ignoring this will only make pol- Western countries, the extremists make up icies fail. Instead, the new EU administration only a small part of society. The majority of needs to think beyond numbers, borders and people belong to what researchers have called international debates, and start considering the “conflicted middle” or the “exhausted ma- ways to sell their migration policies to the ex- jority”, a disparate group whose opinions are hausted majority. not always coherent. This group is less set in its The new global realities will make it impos- views than their more extreme counterparts. sible for the next set of EU leaders to sit on the But the conflicted middle has nowhere to turn fence on the question of migration. Whether to. Mainstream politicians have not yet real- they want it or not, migration will most like- ised that, while the populists may be giving the ly be one of the first questions von der Leyen wrong answers, they are probably asking the and her peers will have to meet heads-on once right questions. they take office. They would do good not to- re This polarisation makes navigating the pol- peat the mistakes of the Juncker Commission. itics of migration increasingly tricky.

28 Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 support of 14 member states, but – and this is crucial –it has failed to get Italy, one of the most affected member states, on board. Ultimately, distributing asylum seekers among EU member states is not just a matter of quotas or courts. It is a question of con- vincing voters that the Union's duty to help those fleeing conflict or facing repression is compatible with the host country’s prosper- ity and values. This is easier said than done. One idea would be to overhaul the global refugee pact, signed in 1951. Proponents of this solution argue that the laws, which were suitable for those escaping the hardships of World War II, are no longer applicable. The question of economic migration is comparatively less complex. There are no internationally binding rules that the EU must follow when deciding what to do about those seeking to move and work in Europe. The bloc and its member states are, in prin- ciple, free to pursue whatever economic mi- gration policies they see fit. So far, they have chosen to focus on curbing arrivals. But an approach to migration that includes legal pathways to Europe is necessary if the EU’s migration policies are to be sustainable in the long term, provide answers to Europe’s demographic crisis and give third countries an incentive to co-operate with the Union.

The “last chance Commission” and its tion on migration policies – with five ‘prior- that the more irregular citizens you have Conclusion mixed migration record ity’ countries: Ethiopia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria in Europe, the faster you’ll receive funding The European Union has failed to build a The response of Juncker’s “last chance” and Senegal. Furthermore, it has intensified from the trust. So we’ll let them leave”. longer-term strategy to deal with future mi- Commission to the refugee crisis has been its engagement with six others: Afghanistan, Finally, evidence suggests that improving gration problems. This is because EU leaders to reduce the number of people reaching the Côte d’Ivoire, the Gambia, Guinea, Nige- economic conditions in source countries can were under pressure to deliver swift solu - continent and to send back those who arrive ria and Pakistan. While these deals are not actually increase migration. Emigration rates tions to the large inflows of people coming on European shores and do not qualify for restricted to co-operation on returns, help are much higher in middle income countries from Libya, Syria and Afghanistan during asylum. The EU is pursuing several strategies with readmission is a crucial component. than in poorer ones. Higher incomes lead 2015. But Europe’s next migration head- to secure its borders. to increased aspirations, ache will probably come from elsewhere. One approach has and mean that people are While securing borders and making deals been to beef up border If governments continue to refuse even to consider more likely to be able to with third countries may help the EU to stop security. The strength- legal routes to Europe until irregular migration afford the journey, and the massive flows, they will not do much to en- ened European Border cost of starting a new life sure that the Union is ready to face emerging and Coast Guard Agen- levels are down to near-zero, they will miss out on elsewhere. Furthermore, migration trends. To be sustainable, the EU’s cy (Frontex) supports the economic opportunities that legal migration the declining child mor- migration plans should take into account frontline member-states tality rates combined with not only security considerations but also in their efforts to pre- offers. high fertility rates create a economic, geopolitical, climate and demo- vent irregular access to booming working age pop- graphic factors. the EU’s passport-free ulation. The International The next European administration should Schengen area. The Commission plans to The EU has been trying to address the Monetary Fund estimates that in order to be less shy in bringing up the topic of legal increase the powers and mandate of Fron- root causes of migration, mostly by sending meet the employment needs of African pop- migration. While an EU wide legal migra- tex, to cultivate a fully-fledged EU border money to countries of origin and transit. In ulations, an additional 18 million new jobs tion scheme will be difficult to agree, mem- force – with plans for 10,000 new Europe- 2015, it launched the Emergency Trust Fund would need to be created annually for the ber states could co-ordinate their efforts bet- an border guards by 2020. Frontex’s budget for Africa, worth €4 billion. The Fund aims next 25 years. ter, for example by setting up co-operation will increase to €11.3 billion by 2027, so that to help African governments manage flows programmes with countries of origin, which the agency can purchase its own equipment of migrants and foster political stability and What next? could benefit both migrants and host societ- rather than relying on member-states. economic growth. Migration and border If one measures the results in terms of ies. Most importantly, EU countries should The EU has also tried to improve its poor management projects account for almost a lower irregular migrant arrivals, the EU’s mi- realise that legal migration cannot be an af- record of returning irregular migrants. Last quarter of the Fund’s budget. gration strategy has been successful. Howev- terthought. If governments continue to re- year, only one third of the 516,000 people The logic behind the Emergency Trust er, this fails to take into account the reality fuse even to consider legal routes to Europe that its member states ordered to leave ac- Fund appears to be sound: funding for pol- that people will inevitably come to Europe, until irregular migration levels are down to tually left the Union. Returning rejected asy- icies to raise domestic employment and regardless of borders and perils they face on near-zero, they will miss out on the econom- lum seekers and irregular migrants to their manage borders. The hope is that this will, their trip. The Union needs to find a way to ic opportunities that legal migration offers. countries of origin or transit is arguably the in turn, reduce migration to Europe. But this allow them in, without risking their lives; the Moreover, perhaps counter-intuitively, they most difficult part of any domestic migration approach has a number of flaws. stability of the host country; or the integrity will encourage irregular migration by failing policy, as it requires procedures for verifying First, by explicitly tying aid to migration of the Schengen area. This will require mem- to deal with pull factors such as labour short- the person’s identity and ensuring their safe management, the EU’s highly regarded de- ber states to accept more integrated migra- ages in some member states. return. That is why trying to secure the help velopment policies risk becoming vulnerable tion policies. The new European Commission should of origin and transit countries has been cen- to political pressure, particularly anti-immi- Ideally, the new EU leaders would be have a better understanding of the trade-offs tral to the EU’s return strategy. The EU has gration rhetoric. The Union prides itself on more open about the fact that people in involved in using foreign and development struck international readmission agreements being the world’s top aid provider, which, in poorer parts of the world will want to come policies to manage migration. Some of the with 17 countries and is negotiating a further turn, allows it to be a global norm-setter, by to Europe, regardless of the obstacles, and deals the EU has made with African and six. This is not exempt of problems: public making support conditional upon respect for that political instability, natural or man- other countries depend on the goodwill of opinion in migrant-sending countries can be fundamental rights and the rule of law. This, made disasters and climate change will inev- dubious security partners, and may end up hostile, as people view the deals as an obstacle of course, takes time – the EU follows long itably lead to an increased number of asylum being counter-productive in the long term. to their free right to migrate. Because of how and bureaucratic procedures so that all boxes seekers trying to reach the West. However, It is perfectly legitimate for the EU to use its difficult it has become to convince countries are ticked before releasing funds. However, European voters have clearly shown they soft power to encourage better border man- to sign this type of deals, the EU has instead the Fund is designed in a way that allows the will not accept chaotic migration, so those agement in migrant-sending countries. But set up what it calls ‘practical co-operation’ Commission to disburse funds swiftly in the opposed to populists need to embrace both migration control cannot be the only crite- schemes to return people to places like Af- case of a political crisis, sidestepping the nec- border controls and an expansion of legal rion for striking deals with third countries. ghanistan, Bangladesh or Ethiopia. essary checks if need be. This means that the routes. Some African governments have understood The EU has also been striking other types Fund could be used to pay for less-than-opti- Hopes that the EU will soon be able to that migration is a bargaining chip in their of deals to keep migrants out. In March 2016, mal migration control projects, at the behest find a sustainable plan to manage asylum relationship with Europe and are ready to it signed a deal with Turkey to return some of the political leader du jour. seekers are fading. EU institutions and the use it as such. Other countries are experi- categories of migrants and asylum seekers Second, the EU’s shift to migration con- national capitals have been working on over- encing economic growth and would like to to Turkish soil and stop departures from the trol has alienated partners, in Africa and hauling the Union's common asylum system be treated as serious trade partners. If it is to Turkish coast. In 2017, the Union agreed elsewhere. The Fund’s lack of clear eligibili- (CEAS) and its main law, the Dublin Reg- find a mutually beneficial relationship with to help Libyan authorities stop and return ty criteria may prove counter-productive. In ulation. However, so far, reform talks have the African continent, the Union will need migrant boats, with Italy playing a key role. February 2017, the EU expanded the Trust largely stalled, as frontline and destination to take account of its new reality. Despite the questions about the legality and Fund to Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Guinea, member states disagree on the terms of the morality of these deals, both seem to have with little justification, leading some to be- reform. Some EU countries, like Hungary This piece draws on the author’s previ- helped curb arrivals to Greece and Italy. The lieve that the selection was politically mo- and Poland, have refused to take in any asy- ously published work. • EU has also signed migration ‘compacts’ – tivated. One senior African official from a lum seekers at all. A recent French initiative international agreements to boost co-opera- non-priority country remarked: “It’s clear to redistribute asylum seekers has gained the

Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 29 Youth perspectives on a social and sustainable Union The European Union has chosen Ursula Von Der Leyen at the helm of the Commission. What lies ahead for young generations of this continent? / By Giorgio Trichilo, Master's Degree Student in International Security Studies, Università di Trento

he new President of the European Commission, Ursula Von der Leyen, T has vowed to introduce novel prop- ositions to the EU’s programmatic vision. She pledges for a greater social economy, serious climate change investments, stronger gender balance within EU institutions and a relaunching of Dublin reforms. The am- bitious goals laid out by the new President reveal a comprehensive course of action, which seems to address the demands of a vulnerable European youth living in a period of perceived uncertainty. Young Europeans are looking for signals of stable integration in the labor market and want for their ever-ex- panding skill sets to be matched with pro- portionate pay in order to assure prospects of economic security. After claiming the absolute majority of votes by MEPs in Strasburg needed to con- firm her designation by the European Coun- cil, Ursula Von Der Leyen is set to become the first woman in the top EU role. Howev- er, her supporting coalition remains a feeble one. Several were the defections within the Socialist and Popular parties, along with the Green party, which voted against Mrs. Von Der Leyen – despite her ambitious environ- mental program. The traditional political arrangement seen over the last decade with a PPE-PSE sort of Grossekoalition seems to have collapsed for this mandate, shedding light on the fragmentation of leftist and centre-right parties. Also, the failure of im- plementing the Spitzenkandidat system has countries which are still suffering from the and setting into law targets of reducing C02 say that one should view the migratory sit- raised many eyebrows towards Mrs. Von recessive effects of 2008-2011 shocks. Cre- emissions by 50% by 2030 could be a win- uation as an opportunity for social enrich- Der Leyen who was not chosen by any of the ating mechanisms of collective wage bar- ning formula. Von der Leyen is also commit- ment, demographic growth and economic parties as a leading candidate. All these are gaining for employers and workers through ted to creating a Carbon Border Tax to avoid growth in respect of basic human rights factors to take into consideration when the a European framework would thus help pre- carbon leakages and institute a Just Transi- principles and customs of international law. new Commission head will want to enforce serve workers’ rights. This approach should tion Fund to help with a cohesive transition This means predisposing humanitarian cor- her program. also be accompanied by firmer action on sys- for SMEs towards a circular economy. To this ridors and creating European agencies con- temic tax evasion by large corporations, for end, Europe would become the first carbon ciliating migrant demands from countries of Social economy: economy to serve instance through a ‘web tax’ as indeed sug- neutral continent in the world, according origin with business labor force demands in people gested by Mrs. Von der Leyen. This would to Mrs. Von der Leyen. Having Europe be a the EU through qualification criteria. In this A centerpiece of Mrs. Leyen’s program is signal the predisposition of the EU of acting model for sustainable development in a way sense, Von der Leyen’s proposed new pact that of trying to “reconcile the economy with as a greater regulatory authority and pre- that can tangibly demonstrate an increased on migration and asylum by reforming the the people”. It is comforting to hear from vent massive leakages in the fiscal systems economic efficiency while lowering pollu- Dublin Regulation goes in the right direction the perspective of a generation that suffers of member states, signaling a shift in attitude tion is something that future generations will to stem the power and resources of criminal from such prolonged and elevated rates of from her predecessor on the issue. We need appreciate. organizations. youth unemployment (14.2% in 2019 for to be looking for ways to redistribute wealth ages 15-24), that macroeconomic action will and lower the socio-economic disparities in Youth and Women: “protecting most Action, Now be focusing on the social dimension. This Europe, which are damaging the very social vulnerable groups” Von Der Leyen’s ambitious program for a approach marks a shift from a more mar- fabric of states and creating perceptions of a In her speech, Mrs. Von der Leyen also more euro-centered Europe goes in the right ket-based and neoliberal agenda stressing ‘broken’ social ladder. directly addressed youth, women and oth- direction for a more integrated and sustain- capital accumulation for markets rather than er vulnerable groups. For instance, the tri- able continent that can work for all, includ- creating the circumstances for low-middle Environment – Green Deal for Europe pling of the Erasmus budget would provide ing youth. We should also consider enlarging income growth. It is crucial for youths to be Another critical juncture in the new a chance for more university students to the prerogatives of the European Parliament, able to harness their human capital through President’s program is climate change and travel and study in other European nations. thus increase the degree of democratic ac- a system of greater economic tutelage and environmental sustainability, an issue that As someone who has personally benefitted countability in the eyes of voters. Also, integration within the job market across the is at heart to European youth – as shown from the Erasmus + program in exchange modifying the voting mechanisms from one EU. If popular trust is to be brought back to also by the electoral leap of the Green Party at Sciences Po Paris, learning new didactic of unanimity to one of qualified majority for the EU institutions, the EU should demon- in the 2019 elections. As Commission head, approaches and meeting people from diverse decisions relating to Foreign Policy would strate that it can truly address unemploy- Von der Leyen seeks to establish a European backgrounds has been a truly enriching be welcomed, as the current system has im- ment, poverty and social inequality – despite Climate Law in what she calls a Green Deal intercultural experience that has strength- peded the EU from enacting much needed these prerogatives being part of member for Europe, echoing the ambitious New Deal ened my appreciation for the EU overall. reforms. states. To this end, the proposed imple- program made to lift the US from a period of Additionally, Mrs. Von der Leyen proposes Yet, much remains to be seen. Firstly, the mentation of a Minimum European Salary crisis. This would be a way to contrast pollut- to turn the existing Youth Guarantee into a European Commissioners still have to be se- and an ‘unemployment safety net’ through ant emissions that are a slowly but inevitably permanent instrument as part of her goal to lected so there is no certainty that Von der an Unemployment Re-insurance Scheme in destroying global ecosystems and our collec- give further procedural and substantive role Leyen’s views will be fully espoused. Second- order shield workers from potential future tive wellbeing. to the European Pillar of Social Rights. In ly, her thin parliamentary majority will likely economic shocks would be much needed EU should take a two-pronged approach: this light, a Child Guarantee would support force her to jostle with political forces that guarantees. If a lesson is to be drawn from enacting systemic changes at a produc- the delivering of basic health care and educa- will seek compromise. The EU however can- the rise of populist parties in Europe, is that tion-business level while also nudging con- tion to every child in order to prevent social not remain idle, if it wants to combat the cur- a large part of the vehiculated discontent has sumer behavior through targeted policies. It exclusion or marginalization at a young age. rent trend of rising euro-skepticism it must to do with a sense of loss of economic secu- is irrational to think that market supply for Respectively, Von der Leyen wants to push provide responses to the needs of new Euro- rity, beyond factors linked with identity. One sustainably made products will increase if for the joining of the Istanbul Convention pean generations, and it must do so now. • of the approaches to addressing this chal- this is not matched with changes in market and propose to “add violence against women lenge would be to give greater legal power to demands. The new Commission head thus on the list of EU crimes defined in the Trea- trade unions, whose authority over the past proposes to unlock investments for over 1 ty”. decades has been progressively carved out by trillion euros by transforming parts of the Refugees also have to be taken into ac- legislators. European Investment Bank into a Climate count as belonging to the vulnerable groups. By giving purchasing power back to Bank and propose a Sustainable Europe In- Migration towards Europe should be tackled workers, aggregate demand rise in those vestment Plan. Involving the banking sector with empathy and decisive action. That is to

30 Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 31 YOUTH AS A (FUTURE) (RE)SOURCE

Programme

31 August – 2 September 2019 www.bledstrategicforum.org

Friday, 30 August

14.00 Gathering and Registration 20.00 Let’s talk about Cross-Regional › Mr Mak Selimovic, President, 16.30 Digitalization for boosting youth –16.00 @City Hotel Ljubljana –21.30 Cooperation: WB6 and V4 Bosnia and Herzegovina Association –17.30 sector and education – Policy In partnership with International for United Nations Recommendations Visegrad Fund. › Mr Juraj Hajko, Researcher and In partnership with Digital Innovation 16.00 Opening of the Young BSF 2019 @City Hotel Ljubljana Project Manager, The Slovak Foreign Hub and Youth Council of Slovenia. –16.30 @National Assembly of the Republic Speakers: Policy Association @Hotel Lovec, Bled of Slovenia › Mr Jan Beneš, Deputy Head of › Ms Lilla Judit Bartuszek, Relations Speakers: Welcome address: Mission, Embassy of Czech Republic Team Officer, V4SDG, Hungary › Dr Emilija Stojmenova Duh, › › Mr Dejan Židan, President, Na- › Mrs Kamilla Duda-Kawecka,  Ms Meliha Muherina, Programme CEO, Digital Innovation Hub Slove- tional Assembly, Slovenia Charge d’affaires, Embassy of Poland Director, Young BSF, Slovenia nia › Opening remarks: › Ms Mirjana Jeremić, Deputy Head  Dr Jernej Pikalo, Minister of › Mr Peter Grk, Secretary-General, of Mission, Embassy of Serbia Education, Ministry of Education, Bled Strategic Forum, Slovenia Mr Lukáš Kajan, Deputy Head of 19.00 Connecting Youth Slovenia › Address by: Mission, Embassy of Slovakia –22.00 In partnership with Western Balkans  Ms Tanja Fajon, Member of the › Ms Katja Geršak, Executive Direc- › H. E. Mr Pëllumb Qazimi, Am- Youth Cooperation Platform. European Parliament, European tor, Centre for European Perspective, bassador, Embassy of Albania @City Hotel Ljubljana Parliament › Slovenia › Ms Mirela Tuzović, Deputy Head Introductory remarks:  Mr Peter Ribarič, Co-founder and Chair: of Mission, Embassy of Montenegro › H.E. Ms Majlinda Bregu, Secre- Director, Silicon Gardens Fund › Ms Meliha Muherina, Programme › Ms Krisztina Varju, Chargé d’af- tary General, Regional Cooperation Director, Young Bled Strategic Fo- faires, Embassy of Hungary Council, Bosnia and Herzegovina Moderator: Ms Anja Fortuna, rum, Slovenia President, Youth Council of Slovenia Moderator: Mr Mak Selimović, President, Bosnia and Herzegovina 19.30 Reception 16.30 Young BSF Chat “Future of work” Association for United Nations –20.00 @City Hotel Ljubljana 18.00 “State of the World” with H.E. Ms –17.30 In partnership with The Boston Con- Facilitators: –19.00 María Fernanda Espinosa Garcés, sulting Group. › Ms Krisela Hackaj, Executive President of the 73rd session of the United Nations General @National Assembly of the Republic 21.30–22.00 Reception Director, Cooperation and Develop- Assembly of Slovenia @City Hotel Ljubljana ment Institute, Albania @Café Belvedere, Bled Speaker: › Ms Dafina Peci, Secretary General, › Mr Nikola Vuković, Partner, The National Youth Congress of Albania Speaker: › Boston Consulting Group Saturday, 31 August › Mr Mak Selimovic, President,  H.E. Ms María Fernanda Espino- Bosnia and Herzegovina Association sa Garcés, President of the 73rd ses- sion of the United Nations General Moderator: Mr Mart Dekleva, Man- 09.00 Let’s go on a Networking for United Nations Assembly aging Director, Adriatic Business –12.00 Scavenger Hunt Group In partnership with Zavod Ypsilon. Moderator: Ms Sabina Carli, Dip- @City Hotel Ljubljana Sunday, 1 September lomat Trainee, Ministry of Foreign Facilitators: 17.30 Empowering Creative and Affairs, Slovenia › Ms Nejka Šegatin, Director, Zavod 10.00 Providing accessible information –19.00 Responsible Youth Toward Better Ypsilon, Slovenia –12.00 for diverse populations Future › Mr Dino Kovačević, Programme In partnership with Slovenian Acade- In partnership with Femmes Sans 19.00–19.30 Reception Director, Zavod Ypsilon, Slovenia my of Sciences and Arts. Frontières Foundation. @City Hotel Ljubljana @Café Belvedere, Bled @National Assembly of the Republic Speaker: of Slovenia 13.00 Youth and Euro-Atlantic › Mr Markland Starkie, Head of Speakers: 19.30 Closing of Young BSF 2019 –17.00 Integrations of Western Balkans Content for GOV.UK, UK Govern- › –22.00 @Café Belvedere, Bled  Ms Caroline Assaf, Founding and the role of V4 – Preparing ment Digital Service Director, Young Speakers, France/ Policy Recommendations Closing remarks: Canada › In partnership with International Moderator: Dr Martina Bofulin,  Mr Andor Dávid, Executive Di- ›  Dr Nadja Štante Furlan, Associ- Visegrad Fund. Research Fellow, Research Center of rector, International Visegrad Fund, ate Professor, Science and Research Hungary @City Hotel Ljubljana the Slovenian Academy of Sciences Center Koper, Slovenia Introductory remarks: and Arts › Ms Ann Godart, Project Manager, Moderator: Ms Federika Fait, › Dr Miran Lavrič, Associate profes- Luxembourg-City Incubator, Luxem- Co-founder and Board Member, sor, University of Maribor, Slovenia bourg 14.00 Digitalization for boosting youth V4SDG - Visegrad for Sustainability ›  Dr Lucija Mulej Mlakar, Associate –16.30 sector and education - Hackhaton Chair: Ms Meliha Muherina, Professor, Budnjani, Slovenia Programme Director, Young BSF, 14.30 Working Lunch In partnership with Digital Innovation Slovenia –15.00 @City Hotel Ljubljana Hub Slovenia and Youth Council of Moderator: Slovenia. › Table moderators:  Dr Jerca Legan Cvikl, President › @Hotel Lovec, Bled & Senior Consultant, Femmes Sans  Ms Jana Juzová, Research Fellow, EUROPEUM, Czech Republic Working Lunch Facilitators: Frontières Foundation, Slovenia › › Ms Anna Korienieva, Secretary  Ms Meliha Muherina, Programme General, Model United Nations Director, Young BSF, Slovenia › Ms Anja Fortuna, President, Youth 19.00–19.30 Reception Prague, Czech Republic › Council of Slovenia @National Assembly of the Republic  Ms Aleksandra Pikus, President, › Ms Tjaša Sobočan, Project Manag- of Slovenia BETA Polska, Poland › Mr Ferenc Németh, Researcher, er, Digital Innovation Hub Slovenia Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade, Hungary

32 Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 (RE)SOURCES OF (IN)STABILITY

Programme

2 – 3 September 2019 www.bledstrategicforum.org

Monday, 2 September Monday, 2 September

09.00 Conflict and Cooperation in 13.00–14.00 Gathering 17.05 Presentation of the BSF Contributers: –12.30 the Mediterranean: Mare @Bled Festival Hall –17.15 Distinguished Partner 2019 Award › Ms Cecilia Barja, Community Nostrum or Global Space? @Bled Festival Hall Organizer and Writer, Bolivia In partnership with Istituto Affari › Ms Amina Benkhadra, General Internazionali. 14.00 Opening of the 2019 BSF › Mr Iztok Mirošič, Ambassa- Director, ONYHM, and President, @Rikli Balance Hotel, Voda Hall –14.30 @Bled Festival Hall dor-at-Large / Special Envoy of the RNI Women Organisation, Morocco Welcome remarks: Welcome address: Minister, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, › Ms ElsaMarie DSilva, Founder and › H.E. Paolo Trichilo, Ambassador, › H.E. Dr Miro Cerar, Deputy Slovenia CEO, Red Dot Foundation, India Italy Prime Minister and Minister of For- › Ms Alenka Bratušek, Deputy › Ms Elizabeth Maloba, Change and Opening remarks: eign Affairs of Slovenia Prime Minister and Minister of Growth Facilitator and EAC Mem- › Mr Dobran Božič, State Secretary, Address by: Infrastructure of Slovenia ber, Global Diplomacy Lab, Kenya Slovenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs › H.E. Mr Marjan Šarec, Prime › Prof Enrico Letta, Dean, Sciences Young BSF Representatives: of Slovenia Minister of Slovenia Po Paris, France › Ms Lilla Judit Bartuszek, Relations Adress by: Keynote Address: Team Officer, V4SDG, Hungary › Dr Ettore Greco, Executive › H.E. Ms María Fernanda Espi- › Mr Ivan Nikolovski, Junior Vice-President, International Affairs nosa Garcés, President of the 73rd 17.15–18.15 Let’s Talk About Sustainability Researcher, Institute for Democracy Institute (IAI), Italy session of the UN General Assembly @Bled Festival Hall „Societas Civilis“, North Macedonia A region in turmoil: Geopolitical Chaired by: Keynote Speaker: › dynamics and Social Change in the › Mr Peter Grk, Secretary-General  Prof Jeffrey Sachs, Director, Tuesday, 3 September Mediterranean of Bled Strategic Forum, Slovenia Center for Sustainable Development, Speakers: United States 9.00 NATO: What’s Next? – Views on › Dr Djallil Lounnas, Professor of Speakers: –10.30 Euro-Atlantic Security 70 Years International Relations, School of 14.30 Conversation with Presidents Dr Andrea Illy, Chairman, illycaffè after the Washington Treaty Humanities and Social Sciences, Al –15.15 @Bled Festival Hall S.p.A., Italy In partnership with Ministry of De- Akhawayn University, Morocco Speakers: › Dr Janez Potočnik, Co-Chair, fence of the Republic of Slovenia. › Dr Neil Quilliam, Associate › H.E. Ms Kersti Kaljulaid, Presi- UNEP International Resource Panel @Rikli Balance Hotel, Arnold I Hall Fellow, Middle East & North Africa dent of Estonia › Prof Jeffrey Sachs, Director, Keynote Speaker: Programme, Chatham House, Royal › H.E. Mr Borut Pahor, President of Center for Sustainable Development, › Institute of International Affairs, Slovenia United States  Mr Karl Erjavec, Deputy Prime United Kingdom Minister and Minister of Defence of

Slovenia Moderator: Mr Ali Aslan, Presenter Moderator: Ms Ladeja Godina Speakers: Moderator: Dr Ettore Greco, Exec- and Journalist, Germany Košir, Founder and Director Circu- › utive Vice-President, International lar Change, Ljubljana, and Chair of  Dr Damir Črnčec, State Secretary, Affairs Institute (IAI), Italy CG ECESP, Brussels Office of the Prime Minister of Slo- venia 15.15 Multilateralism at Crossroads › Mr Sven Sakkov, Director, In- Prospect of Regional Cooperation –16.15 @Bled Festival Hall ternational Centre for Defence and in the Mediterranean and the role of Speakers: 18.30 The (Soft) Power of Creativity: international organizations -19.30 The Entertainment Industry in Security, Estonia › H.E. Ms María Fernanda Espi- International Relations › Mr Pedro Serrano, Deputy Sec- Speakers: nosa Garcés, President of the 73rd › retary General for CSDP and Crisis  Dr Ekaterina Stepanova, Head session of the UN General Assembly @Bled Festival Hall Response, European External Action of Peace and Conflict Studies Unit, › H.E. Mr Josep Borrell Fontelles, Speakers: › Service National Research Institute of World Minister of Foreign Affairs, the  Ms Katarina Čas, Actress, Slovenia › Ms Radmila Shekerinska, Deputy Economy and International Rela- European Union and Cooperation of › Prof Bill Elliott, Professor of Con- Prime Minister and Minister of De- tions, Russia Spain temporary Writing and Production, › fence of North Macedonia  Ms Sibelle El Labban, Executive › H.E. Mr Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, Min- Berklee College of Music, United › Mr Róbert Vass, President, GLOB- Assistant for Research Support, ister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey States Faculty of Agricultural and Food SEC, Slovakia › H.E. Dr Miro Cerar, Minister of Sciences, American University of › Mr Scott M. Weber, President, Foreign Affairs of Slovenia Moderator: Mr Žiga Pirnat, Bled Beirut, Lebanon Strategic Forum Creative Director, Interpeace, Switzerland › Prof. Dr Musa Shteiwi, Director, Young BSF Representative: Moderator: Mr Ali Aslan, Presenter Slovenia Center for Strategic Studies, Univer- › Mr Emir Hasanović, Program and journalist, Germany sity of Jordan Development Officer, Chemonics, 20.00 Networking Reception North Macedonia Moderator: 16.15–16.30 Coffee Break –22.00 @Grand Hotel Toplice, Grand Hall Mr Emiliano Alessandri, Senior Moderator: Ambassador Jelko @Bled Festival Hall Addresses by: External Cooperation Officer, OSCE › Mr Janez Fajfar, Mayor of Bled, Kacin, Adviser to the Minister of Secretariat General, Austria Slovenia Foreign Affairs on Security Policies, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Slovenia 16.30 Winning the ’20s: A Leadership › Mr Janez Škrabec, General Man- Concluding remarks –17.00 Agenda for the Next Decade ager, RIKO, Slovenia ›  Mr Gregor Perič, Head, National @Bled Festival Hall Assembly’s delegation to the OSCE 9.00 (Re)sources on the Move Speaker: Chaired by: Mr Peter Grk, Sec- Parliamentary Assembly, Slovenia –10.30 @Rikli Balance Hotel, Arnold II Hall › Mr Martin Reeves, BCG Man- retary-General of Bled Strategic › Ms Meliha Muherina, Programme Speakers: aging Director and Senior Partner, Forum, Slovenia Director, Young BSF, Slovenia › Global Director of the BCG Hender-  H.E. The Honourable Carmelo son Institute, United States Abela, Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade Promotion of Malta 22.00 Night Owl Session – Creating a › 12.30–13.00 Reception - 00.00 Resilient and Inclusive Future  Ms Nina Gregori, Executive Direc- tor, European Asylum Support Office In partnership with Italian Embassy to In partnership with Global Diplomacy › Slovenia Lab.  Ms Shada Islam, Director for Europe and Geopolitics, Friends of @Hotel Rikli Balance @Grand Hotel Toplice, Lake Lounge Europe, Belgium

Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 33 › Dr Karin Kneissl, Independent › Dr Walter Kemp, Head, Strategic › Dr Dimitrij Rupel, Former Minis- Moderator: Ms Oana Popescu-Zamfir, Di- Analyst, Former Minister of Foreign Policy and Planning Unit, OSCE ter of Foreign Affairs of Slovenia rector, GlobalFocus Center, Romania Affairs of Austria › Mr Iztok Mirošič, Ambassa- Young BSF Representative (TBC) › His Eminence Cardinal Peter dor-at-Large / Special Envoy of the Keynote Listener: Kodwo Appiah Turkson, Prefect, Minister, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, › Mr Alojz Peterle, Former Member 15.30–16.00 Coffee Break Dicastery for Promoting Integral Slovenia of the European Parliament, Slovenia @Rikli Balance Hotel Human Development, Vatican › Mr Richard Moore, Political ›  Dr Matteo Villa, Research Fellow, Director, Foreign & Commonwealth Moderator: Dr Charles Powell, Italian Institute for International Office, United Kingdom Director, Real Instituto Elcano, Spain 16.00 Western Balkans - Europeisation, Political Studies, Italy –17.30 Democratisation, Shared Young BSF Representative: Moderator: Mr Tobias Flessenkem- Responsibility › Ms Am.lie Jaques-Apke, Head, per, Head of Office in Belgrade, 14.00 Data – (Re)source of the Future In partnership with Central European Initiative. Franco-German Department, Euro- Council of Europe –15.30 @Rikli Balance Hotel, Arnold II Hall @Rikli Balance Hotel, Arnold Hall paNova, France Keynote Speaker: Keynote Speaker: Keynote Listener: › Mr Julian King, European Com- › 11.00 State of Human Rights: ›  Mr Martijn Pluim, Director of Mi- missioner for the Security Union  H.E. Mr Pekka Haavisto, Minister –12.30 A Conversation with the UN High for Foreign Affairs of Finland gration Dialogues and Cooperation, Speakers: International Centre for Migration Commissioner for Human Rights Speakers: › Mr Levente Juhász, Public Policy Policy Development, Austria @Rikli Balance Hotel, Arnold II Hall › Manager, Central and Eastern Eu-  Ms Majlinda Bregu, Secretary Speakers: rope, Google Poland General, Regional Cooperation › Ms Michelle Bachelet Jeria, UN Council (RCC), Bosnia and Herze- Moderator: Ms Camino Mort- › Ms Claudia Olsson, Founder and High Commissioner for Human govina era-Martinez, Senior Research Chairman, Stellar Capacity, Sweden Fellow, Centre for European Reform, Rights › H.E. Mr Igor Crnadak, Minister of › Mr Gregor Pilgram, Chief Finan- Belgium Foreign Affairs of Bosnia and Herze- cial Officer for Central and Eastern govina Moderator: Mr Dan Damon, Pre- Europe, Generali CEE Holding, › senter, BBC World Service, United Czech Republic  H.E. Mr Ivica Dačić, First Deputy 9.00 Protectionism as a Source of Kingdom Prime Minister and Minister of For- › Mr Uroš Salobir, Director, Strate- –10.30 Global Instability eign Affairs of Serbia gic Innovation Department, ELES, @Rikli Balance Hotel, Zrak Hall › Slovenia  H.E. Prof. Dr Srđan Darmanović, Speakers: 11.00 Climate Change – Saving the Planet Minister of Foreign Affairs of Monte- › Mr Samir Sharma, CEO, data- › –12.30 by Going Circular negro  Mr Lawrence Agyinsam, CEO, zuum, United Kingdom Ghana Export-Import Bank, Ghana In partnership with Circular Change. › H.E. Mr Nikola Dimitrov, Min-

› Ms Sandra Gallina, Deputy Di- @Rikli Balance Hotel, Zrak Hall ister of Foreign Affairs of North Moderator: Ms Jolene Creighton, rector General, DG Trade, European Macedonia Keynote Speaker: Editorial Director, Boma Global, Commission › › Dr Vedran Džihić, Senior Re-  H.E. Mr Pekka Haavisto, Minister United States › Mr Ulrik Knudsen, Deputy Secre- for Foreign Affairs of Finland searcher/Senior Lecturer, Austrian tary-General, OECD Speakers: Institute for International Affairs, › University of Vienna, Austria  Dr Rem Korteweg, Senior Re- › Mr Alejandro Adler, Director, 14.00 (Re)sources in Women’s Hands: › search Fellow, Clingendael Institute, Well-Being Science and Policy, –15.30 Tapping the Potential  H.E. Mr Behgjet Pacolli, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kosovo The Netherlands Sustainable Development Solutions @Rikli Balance Hotel, Zrak Hall › › Mr Matthew A. Palmer, Dep-  Dr Mojmir Mrak, Professor, Network, United States Speakers: School of Economics and Business, › uty Assistant Secretary, Bureau of  Ms Cathrine Barth, Co-founder, › Ms Lady Barbara Judge CBE, University of Ljubljana, Slovenia European and Eurasian Affairs, US Head of Strategy, Circular Norway, Chairman, Athene Capital, United › Department of State  Mr Timothy Yeend, Principal Ad- Norway Kingdom viser to the DG and Chef de Cabinet, › › H.E. Mr Péter Szijjártó, Minister  Mr Freek van Eijk, CEO, Holland › Ambassador Nasser Kamel, Secre- WTO Circular Hotspot, The Netherlands of Foreign Affairs and Trade of Hun- tary General, Union for the Mediter- gary › H.E. Mr Bernard Fautrier, ranean Keynote Listener: Moderator: Mr Guy De Launey, Vice-president CEO of the Prince Al- › Mr Ulrik Knudsen, Deputy Secre- › Ms Nina Kodelja, Deputy Secre- Correspondent and Presenter at BBC bert II of Monaco Foundation, Min- tary-General, OECD News and Monocle, United Kingdom ister Plenipotentiary, Special Adviser tary General, Central European Initi- › Ms Monica McWilliams, Chair, to the Prime Minister on sustainable ative - Executive Secretariat, Slovenia Interpeace Governing Board, Swit- development issues, Monaco › Prof John O’Brennan, Jean Mon- zerland 8.30 Tax Them If You Can: Fiscal (Re) › Mr Kari Herlevi, Project Direc- net Professor of European Integra- › Ms Melanie Seier Larsen, Manag- –10.00 sources in a Globalised World tor, Circular Economy, The Finnish tion, Maynooth University, Ireland ing Director and Partner, The Boston @Rikli Balance Hotel, Voda Hall Innovation Fund Sitra, Finland Consulting Group, Slovenia Speakers: › Ms Marjeta Jager, Deputy Direc- Moderator: Mr Goran Svilanović, › Mr Aleksander Zalaznik, Pres- › tor-General, European Commission Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of  Mr Marko Mršnik, Director, ident, Managers‘s Association of › Serbia Sovereign Ratings Europe, Standard  Mr Ben Macpherson MSP, Minis- Slovenia & Poor’s, Spain ter for Europe, Migration and Inter-

› Ms Sarah Perret, Economist, national Development, The Scottish Moderator: Ms Simona Leskovar, OECD Government 17.30–18.00 Closing of the 2019 BSF State Secretary, Ministry of Foreign › › Mr David B. McGinty, Global @Rikli Balance Hotel, Arnold Hall  Dr Frank-Jürgen Richter, Chair- Affairs, Slovenia man, Horasis, Switzerland Director, Platform for Accelerating Closing Remarks: › Dr Karl Soukup, Director, DG the Circular Economy (PACE), The › Ms Simona Leskovar, State Sec- Netherlands Competition, European Commission 14.00 Disinformation Campaigns – retary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, › › Dr Paul Tang, Member, European  Mr Jack Pineda Dale, Legal Direc- –15.30 A Source of Instability in Eastern Slovenia Parliament tor, Microsoft Central and Eastern Partnership Countries Europe, Finland In partnership with Centre for Moderator: Mr Martin Sandbu, European Perspective and the U.S. SIDE-EVENTS Economics Commentator, Financial Moderator: Ms Ladeja Godina Department of State. Times, United Kingdom Košir, Founder and Director Circu- @Rikli Balance Hotel, Voda Hall Tuesday, 3 September lar Change, Ljubljana, and Chair of Speakers: CG ECESP, Brussels › Ms Angelina Gros-Tchorbad- 10.30–11.00 Coffee Break jiyska, Security Union Task Force 10.15 Brexit: Where Next? @Rikli Balance Hotel Secretariat, DG Home, European –11.45 In partnership with Chatham House. 12.30–14.00 Networking Lunch Commission @Rikli Balance Hotel, Voda Hall @Rikli Balance Hotel › Ms Elina Lange-Ionatamishvili, Speakers: 11.00 Rules-Based International Order or Senior Expert of the Doctrine, Con- › Dr Stefaan De Rynck, Senior –12.30 the Return of Geopolitics? cept and Experimentation Branch, advisor of Michel Barnier, European 14.00 What lies ahead for the New @Rikli Balance Hotel, Arnold I Hall NATO Strategic Communications Commission –15.30 European Commission? Speakers: Centre of Excellence › Sir Ivan Rogers, Former Perma- In partnership with Real Instituto › H.E. Mr Seyed Abbas Araghchi, › Mr Vakhtang Makharoblishvili, nent Representative of the United Elcano. Deputy Foreign Minister of Iran Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kingdom to the European Union, @Rikli Balance Hotel, Arnold I Hall › Dr Babafemi Badejo, CEO, Yintab Georgia United Kingdom (TBC) Strategy Consults, Nigeria Speakers: › Mr Alexandr Roitman, Spokes- › Rt Hon Gisela Stuart, Chair, › › Mr Jean-Christophe Belliard,  Mr Pierre Heilbronn, Vice Presi- person, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Change Britain, United Kingdom Deputy Secretary General for dent Policy and Partnerships, EBRD and European Integration, Moldova › Political Affairs - Political Director,  Mr Guillaume Klossa, Founding › Ms Veronika Víchová, Coordi- Moderator: Mr Thomas Raines, European External Action Service president, EuropaNova, France nator and Analyst of the Kremlin Head of Europe Programme, › › H.E. Mr Jae-bok Chang, Ambas-  Prof Enrico Letta, Dean, Sciences Watch Program, European Values Chatham House, United Kingdom sador for Public Diplomacy, Ministry Po Paris, France Think-Tank, Czech Republic of Foreign Affairs, Korea › Mr Igor Mally, State Secretary, Of- › Dr Mark V. Vlašič, Adjunct Pro- › Ms Theresa Fallon, Director, Cen- fice of the Prime Minister of Slovenia fessor of Law, Georgetown Universi- tre for Russia, Europe, Asia Studies › Mr Andreas Peschke, Direc- ty, United States (CREAS), Belgium tor-General for European Affairs, Federal Foreign Office, Germany 

34 Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 12.00 Resources of Modern Diplomacy: Technology: Empowerment or Su- 10.15 The Three Dimensions of Artificial › Mr Luka Vesnaver, Partner-in- –13.30 Honorary Consuls and Their premacy? –11.45 Intelligence: Science, Business & Charge of Financial Advisory Servic- Renewed Role Speakers: People es, Deloitte, Slovenia In partnership with World Federation › Mr Joseph Dumoulin, Chief Tech- In partnership with Siemens. › Dr James Zhan, Director of Invest- of Consuls. nology Innovation Officer, Verint @Rikli Balance Hotel, Sonce Hall ment and Enterprise, UNCTAD @Rikli Balance Hotel, Voda Hall Intelligent Self-Service, United States Keynote Speaker: Keynote Speaker: › Mr Marten Kaevats, National › Dr Yossi Vardi, Entrepreneur and Moderator: Mr Sebastian Shedadi, › Dr Marko Smole, Director, FICAC Digital Advisor, Government Office Investor, Israel Global Markets Reporter, fDi Maga- World Federation of Consuls, Slove- of Estonia Speakers: zine Financial Times Group, United › nia  Mr Josko Mrndze, Country › Mr Joseph Dumoulin, Chief Tech- Kingdom Speakers: Manager Adriatics Region, Google, nology Innovation Officer, Verint › Prof. Dr Klemen Jaklič, Judge Croatia Intelligent Self-Service, United States and Professor of Constitutional Law, › Mr Gregor Potočar, Managing › Mr Julian King, European Com- 14.30 A Climate-Neutral Smart Economy Constitutional Court of Slovenia Director South-East Europe, SAP, missioner for the Security Union –16.00 – Greentech › Mr Nikolaos Margaropoulos, Slovenia › Dr Michael May, Head of Data In partnership with Center of Energy Secretary General, International › Dr Matthias Sachs, Director Analytics & AI, Siemens Corporate Efficient Solutions and Cambridge Federation of Consular Corps and Corporate Affairs, Microsoft CEE, Technology, Germany Institute for Sustainability Leadership. Assocations (FICAC), Greece Germany › Dr Jernej Pikalo, Deputy Prime @Rikli Balance Hotel, Sonce Hall › Prof. Dr Ernest Petrič, Senior Ad- Minister and Minister of Education, Speakers: viser to the President of the Republic, Security in an Unpredictable World Science and Sport of Slovenia › Dr Saša Bavec, Group Market- Slovenia › Mr Uroš Majcen, Head of Security › Dr Matthias Sachs, Director ing Director, Member of Executive › Mr Leif-Kristian Sverstad, Direc- Operations Center Department, S&T Corporate Affairs, Microsoft CEE, Committee, Group Knauf Insulation, tor and Chairman of the Trade and Slovenija d.d., Slovenia Germany Belgium › Economic Development Committe, › Dr Emilija Stojmenova Duh,  Mr Gregor Benčina, President, International Federation of Consular Moderator: Ms Ajša Vodnik, CEO, Director, Digital Innovation Hub Slovenijales Group, Vice president Corps and Associations (FICAC), AmCham Slovenia Slovenia Center of Energy Efficiency Solu- Norway tions, Initiator of GreenTech Slove- nia, Slovenia Moderator: Ms Pika Šarf, Junior › Moderator: Ms Katja Geršak, Exec- 10.00 Tourism for All Destinations: Research Fellow, Institute of Crimi-  H.E. Mr Bernard Fautrier, utive Director, Centre for European –13.00 Dispersal over Place and Time nology, Faculty of Law, University of Vice-president CEO of the Prince Al- Perspective, Slovenia In partnership with Ministry of Ljubljana, Slovenia bert II of Monaco Foundation, Min- Economic Development and Technol- ister Plenipotentiary, Special Adviser ogy of the Republic of Slovenia and to the Prime Minister on sustainable development issues, Monaco 16.00 Start:up Slovenia Meet-up with Slovenian Tourist Board. 11.45 Invest Talk Slovenia 3.0: Trends and › –17.30 Yossi Vardi (by invitation only) @Grand Hotel Toplice, Grand Hall –13.15 Challenges of Global FDI: A Threat  Mr Tom Fux, CEO, Toyota Fleet Mobility Europe, Germany In partnership with Start:up Slovenia, Speakers: or an Opportunity? › Dr Janez Potočnik, Co-Chair, organised by Venture Factory, Slovene › Mr Zdravko Počivalšek, Minister In partnership with Ministry of Eco- UNEP International Resource Panel Enterprise Fund and Ministry of Eco- of Economic Development and Tech- nomic Development and Technology › nomic Development and Technology nology of Slovenia of the Republic of Slovenia.  Ms Ana Roš, Chef, Hiša Franko, of the Republic of Slovenia. Slovenia › Ms Maja Pak, Director, Slovenian @Rikli Balance Hotel, Sonce Hall › @Rikli Balance Hotel, Zrak Hall Tourist Board Welcome Speech:  Mr Rok Vodnik, Member of the Management Board, Petrol d.d., Pres- › Ms Daniela Wagner, Regional › Mr Zdravko Počivalšek, Minister ident of the Board, Center of Energy Director for Europe, the Middle East of Economic Development and Tech- Efficiency Solutions, Slovenia BUSINESS BLED and Africa, PATA, United Kingdom nology of Slovenia

STRATEGIC FORUM Keynote Speech: Moderator: Dr Martin Porter, Panel Speakers: › Dr James Zhan, Director of Invest- Executive Chair, Cambridge Institute › Ms Eva Štravs Podlogar, State ment and Enterprise, UNCTAD for Sustainability Leadership, United Tuesday, 3 September Secretary, Ministry of Economic Speakers: Kingdom Development and Technology of › Mr Aleš Cantarutti, State Secre- 8.30 AmCham Reinvention Breakfast – Slovenia tary, Ministry of Economic Develop- › –10.00 Predicting the Unpredictable:  Mr Andrew Agius Muscat, Secre- ment and Technology of Slovenia 16.00 Pitch your Green Idea! › How to Win in the Flow of tary General, Mediterranean Tourism  Dr Rastislav Chovanec, State –16.30 In partnership with Center of Energy Constant Change? Foundation, Malta Secretary, Ministry of Economy of Efficient Solutions, EIT InnoEnergy, › In partnership with AmCham  Ms Valeria Duflot, Co-founder, Slovakia and ABC Accelerator. › Slovenia. CEO, Venezia Autentica and Over-  Prof Valerio De Luca, Executive @Rikli Balance Hotel, Sonce Hall @Rikli Balance Hotel, Sonce Hall tourism Solution, Italy President, Global Investors Alliance, Reinvention: Necessity, Creativity › Prof Tanja Mihalič, Professor, Italy or Natural Process? School of Economics and Business, › Mr Miha Polak, Acting Head of Speakers: University of Ljubljana, Slovenia EBRD Residence Office in Ljubljana, › Ms Ina Kukovič Borovnik, Found- EBRD er, BELAVODA, Slovenia Moderator: Mr Jaka Repanšek, Part- › Mr Boštjan Skalar, Executive Di- › Mr Nikola Slavnič, CEO, In Your ner, Republis Consulting, Slovenia rector, World Association of Invest- Pocket, Slovenia ment Promotion Agencies

Getting around BSF: Map of Bled

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1 Bled Festival Hall (Cesta svobode 11) 6 Kompas Hotel Bled (Cankarjeva 2) 10 Vila Zlatorog (Veslaška promenada 9) 11 2 Festival Festival Hotel Krim Hall (Ljubljanska Bled 7) ConferenceConference 7 Rikli venuesvenues Balance Hotel (ex Hotel Golf) 11 Vila Bled (Cesta svobode 18) 22 3 IEDC IEDC Hotel Park (Cesta svobode 15) (Cankarjeva 4) 12 Shuttle Point 4 Grand Hotel Toplice (Cesta svobode 12) 8 Hotel Savica Garni (Cankarjeva 6) 33 5 Hotel Hotel Best Western Krim Premier Hotel Lovec (Ljubljanska1 1cesta 6) Bled Bled 9 Hotel FestivalFestival Astoria Hall(PrešernovaHall (Cesta (Cesta 44) svobode svobode 11) 11) 44 Hotel Hotel Park 22 IEDC IEDC –– BledBled SchoolSchool of of Management Management (Prešernova (Prešernova 33) 33) 55 Grand Grand Hotel Toplice 55 Grand Grand HotelHotel TopliceToplice (Cesta (Cesta svobode svobode 12) 12) Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 35 66 Hotel Hotel Lovec 77 Kompas Kompas HotelHotel Bled Bled (Cankarjeva (Cankarjeva 2) 2) 77 Hotel Hotel Kompas 88 Hotel Hotel GolfGolf (Cankarjeva(Cankarjeva 4) 4) 88 Hotel Hotel Golf 1111 Hotel Hotel AstoriaAstoria (Prešernova(Prešernova 44) 44) 99 Hotel Hotel Savica 1010 Hotel Hotel Vila Bled BSFBSF officialofficial hotelshotels

44 Hotel Hotel ParkPark (Cesta(Cesta svobode svobode 15) 15) 55 Grand Grand HotelHotel TopliceToplice (Cesta (Cesta svobode svobode 12) 12) 66 Best Best WesternWestern PremierPremier Hotel Hotel Lovec Lovec (Ljubljanska (Ljubljanska cesta cesta 6) 6) 77 Kompas Kompas HotelHotel Bled Bled (Cankarjeva (Cankarjeva 2) 2) 88 Hotel Hotel GolfGolf (Cankarjeva(Cankarjeva 4) 4) 1010 Vila Vila BledBled (Cesta(Cesta svobode svobode 18) 18) 1111 Hotel Hotel AstoriaAstoria (Prešernova (Prešernova 44) 44)

11 −− 22 September 2014 BSF 2019

Speakers' biographies

2 – 3 September 2019 www.bledstrategicforum.org

Young Bled Strategic Forum Empowering Creative and Let’s talk about Cross-Regional Let’s go on a Networking Scavenger Responsible Youth Toward Better Cooperation: WB6 and V4 Hunt Opening of the Young BSF 2019 Future Jan Beneš Dino Kovačević Katja Geršak Caroline Assaf Deputy Head of Mission at the Programme Director at The Executive Director of the Cen- Founder of Young Speak- Embassy of the Czech Republic Ypsilon Institute, responsible tre for European Perspective, ers, a social initiative em- in Slovenia. He previously for business development co-organiser of the Bled Strate- powering youth through served as Head of Office of the through sales and partnerships, gic Forum, and Editor-in-Chief communications and con- State Secretary at the Czech Ministry of Foreign and passionate about building communities for of the Bled Strategic Times. She previously worked nections. She served as President for Sustain- Affairs and held several positions in academic in- young, purpose-driven professionals. He was as Vice-President of Business Angels of Slovenia. able Cities International and led a govern- stitutions. He graduated in international relations previously Account Manager at Belgium’s Field- She is the co-founder of Regional Dialogue, a ment-funded youth internship programme in from Charles University in Prague. drive, now Community Brands, world’s leading non-governmental organisation working on the Latin America and Africa. She is Member of technology provider for purpose-built organisa- justice sector reform in Uzbekistan. the Advisory Board to the World Economic Kamilla Duda-Kawecka tions, based in the US. Forum and about to graduate with a Master’s A lawyer specialised in the in- Peter Grk degree in Sustainable Development at Har- stitutional law of the EU. A Nejka Šegatin Secretary-General of Bled Stra- vard Extension School. diplomat since 2002, she has Director of The Ypsilon Insti- tegic Forum and Western Bal- served both at Polish embassies tute. She started her profession- kans Coordinator at the Slove- Ann Godart abroad and at the EU Delegation, dealing with the al career as Head of the mentor- nian Ministry of Foreign Project Manager at Luxem- law of treaties, human rights and the Western ing programme of The Ypsilon Affairs. Previously, he chaired the Committee on bourg-City Incubator, in Balkans. Institute. She has a Bachelor’s degree in compara- the Civilian Aspect of Crisis Management in charge of communication tive literature and is preparing her Master’s on the Brussels, and was Adviser to the Foreign Minister and providing young entre- Mirjana Jeremić youth sector in Slovenia. Her goal is to enable and Chief Foreign Policy Adviser to the Prime preneurs with driving solutions in scaling N/A young people to find their own paths in life. Minister. He holds a degree in political science. their business. Her previous positions include Communication and Digital Coordinator, Lukáš Kajan Meliha Muherina HR Business Partner at Indosuez Wealth (Eu- Deputy Head of Mission at the Youth and Euro-Atlantic Integrations of Project manager at the Centre rope), Career Development Manager at Crédit Embassy of the Slovak Republic Western Balkans and the role of V4 – for European Perspective, Agricole Luxembourg focusing on high po- in Ljubljana. For several years Preparing Policy Recommendations where she focuses on the role of tentials and women heading for C-suite posi- he worked for an NGO that youth and the Euro-Atlantic tions, Training Manager in Swiss and Dutch promoted EU and NATO membership. He has Miran Lavrič integration of the Western Balkans. She graduat- banks. held several positions at the Slovak Ministry of Associate Professor of Sociolo- ed in international relations from the Faculty of Foreign and European Affairs, and served at the gy at the University of Maribor. Social Sciences, University of Ljubljana. She is Jerca Legan Cvikl Slovak Embassy in Warsaw. He has participated in a num- also Vice President of Bosnia and Herzegovina President of the interna- ber of research projects focus- Association for the United Nations. tional women’s foundation Pëllumb Qazimi ing on youth in Slovenia and Southeast Europe Femmes Sans Frontières, Former Chief of General Staff and has published a number of scientific articles Dejan Židan anthropologist, lecturer, of the Albanian Armed Forces in international journals on sociological topics. President of the National As- publicist and philanthropist. Strategic com- with the ranks of Brigadier sembly of the Republic of Slove- munication expert for institutions within the General, Major General and nia and President of the Social public and private spheres, locally and inter- Lieutenant General (2000–2006). Ambassador of Working Lunch Democrats. His previous posi- nationally. Author of several books, including Albania to Croatia and to Bosnia and Herzegovi- tions include Chairman of the Board of the Panvi- monographs on the media phenomenon, fo- na (2007-2014), 2014 Ambassador to Slovenia. In Juraj Hajko ta Group, Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and cusing on gender and elites in contemporary 2012 he authored the book Albania, the Military Researcher and project manag- Food, and Member of Parliament. He has a Mas- society. Her multilingual fairy-tale was put up and the Foreign Influence, 1912–1991. He holds a er at the Slovak Foreign Policy ter’s degree in Veterinary Science. as a theatre play. PhD from the Faculty of Humanities and Social Association (SFPA) with the Sciences of the University of Zagreb. main focus on the EU, France Lucija Mulej Mlakar and the Balkans. Before entering SFPA, he worked Young BSF Chat “Future of Work” Business anthropologist, Mak Selimović in several media and in the NGO sector. As a for- sociologist, public speaker A passionate advocate for re- eign correspondent in Brussels, he reported on Mart Dekleva and writer. Under the mot- gional reconciliation and coop- EU topics and continued his career as a reporter of Managing Director at ABG – to “Perceive, Awaken” she eration. He graduated from the Radio and Television of Slovakia. He holds a Adriatic Business Group LTD combines hard-core science with subtle Georgetown University, School degree in International Relations from Masaryk with a demonstrated history of spiritual and subconscious concepts. Her of Foreign Service where he developed a strong University, Czech Republic. working in the logistics and paradigm is Budnjani 4Q, (IQ, EW, SQ, PQ), interest for Peace and Justice Studies, regional supply chain industry. Skilled in entrepreneur- the connectivity of intelligences, engaged in cooperation and sustainable development. Previ- Lilla Judit Bartuszek ship, event management, manufacturing, and the ideas of “insight economy”. ously, he served the UN - ICTY and was a member A Hungarian law student and production planning. of BIH’s delegation to the UNODC. He currently Relations Officer at V4SDG, a Nadja Štante Furlan chairs the BiH Association for the UN. youth-led international organi- Nikola Vuković An Associate Professor of sation striving to give a brand A partner and member of the religious studies and Senior Mirela Tuzović new, sustainability-based profile to the Visegrad senior leadership team for SEE Research Fellow at the Sci- N/A Group and the countries involved in it. Besides in the Boston Consulting ence and Research Centre the UN Sustainable Development Goals, her main Group. He has over 13 years of of Koper. A Fulbright Visiting Scholar at the Krisztina Varju fields of interest are international law, interna- experience in strategy management consulting University of California, Berkeley for the N/A tional relations and European public law. with the primary focus on strategy, commercial 2008–09 academic year. She is a member of excellence and transformation topics in consumer the Commission for Women in Science and Jana Juzová goods and retail industry. A senior core team Equal Opportunities, an expert body at the Jana Juzová is a Research Fel- member of BCG Global & CEE Consumer Prac- Slovenian Ministry of Education, Science and low in the EUROPEUM Insti- tice Area. Sport. tute for European Policy. Her research focuses primarily on

36 Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 regionalism, Visegrad cooperation, democratiza- Emilija Stojmenova Duh Chief of the General Staff and numerous com- tion and European integration of the Western Providing accessible information for Assistant Professor at the Fac- mand and staff positions in the Slovenian Armed Balkan countries, and EU enlargement. Her pre- diverse populations ulty of Electrical Engineering, Forces. vious worrience include the EULEX Mission to University of Ljubljana and co- Kosovo, GLOBSEC or Institute of International Martina Bofulin ordinator of the national Sibelle El Labban Relations in Prague. Research Fellow at the Sloveni- FabLab network. She is Director of Digital Inno- Executive Assistant for Re- an Migration Institute at the vation Hub Slovenia, the national one-stop-shop search Support at the Faculty of Anna Korienieva Research Centre of the Sloveni- for digital transformation and digital competence Agricultural and Food Sciences An international relations stu- an Academy of Sciences and development. She coordinates several projects on (FAFS), American University dent at the University of Eco- Arts. She was previously a JSPS postdoctoral fel- digitalisation for innovation and rural develop- of Beirut (AUBPilgram). Prior to her current posi- nomics in Prague. The desire to low at Osaka University and Erasmus Mundus ment. tion, she worked as a Senior Research Assistant at make this world a better place Basileus fellow at Belgrade University. Her re- FAFS, focusing her research on food and nutrition to live motivated her to join the MUN Prague or- search interests include various forms of Chinese security and sustainable food consumption in ganisation, and she has been its active member for mobility, migrant integration, and migrant herit- “State of the World” with H.E. Ms María MENA. She aspires to drive societal change the last three years. She has taken part in numer- age. Fernanda Espinosa Garcés, President of through food and nutrition policies. ous MUNs around Europe, among others in Ger- the General Assembly of the UN many, France and the UK. Markland Starkie Ettore Greco Head of Content for GOV.UK, María Fernanda Espinosa Executive Vice President of Is- Meliha Muherina based at the UK’s Government Garcés tituto Affari Internazionali (See Opening of the Young BSF 2019.) Digital Service. His previous President of the 73rd session of (IAI) and Head of the Multilat- position was Deputy Head of the UN General Assembly, the eralism and global governance Ferenc Németh Digital at the University of Bristol and he has fourth woman – and the first programme of the institute, which he managed Research Fellow at the Institute spent over 10 years working in digital teams for woman from Latin America – to hold this posi- from 2008 to 2017. He was a Visiting Fellow at the for Foreign Affairs and Trade universities and the public sector. He has a par- tion. She has over 20 years of multilateral experi- Brookings Institution from January 2006 to July (IFAT) in Budapest. He was ticular focus on content design, content strategy ence, as Ecuador’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, 2007. previously a journalist of a and product management. Minister of National Defence, Coordinating Hungarian political newspaper, covering the pol- Minister of Natural and Cultural Heritage and Djallil Lounnas itics of Southeast Europe, and an intern within Permanent Representative to the UN in New York Professor of international stud- the Press Office of EULEX. He is strongly com- Digitalization for boosting youth sector and Geneva. ies in Al Akhawayn University, mitted to media freedom and to the Euro-Atlantic and education - Hackhaton specialist for Jihadi organisa- integration of the Western Balkans. Sabina Carli tions in North Africa-Sahel. Anja Fortuna Diplomat trainee, assistant to Author of the upcoming book Jihadi Movements Aleksandra Pikus President of the National Youth the Director-General for Eco- in North Africa-Sahel (Editions l’Harmattan) and Chair of the Polish branch of Council of Slovenia. Before nomic and Public Diplomacy at of several academic articles, including in Mid- BETA Europe, BETA Poland, that, she was Vice President for the Slovenian Foreign Minis- dle-East Policy, Political Violence and Terrorism. the organiser of the annual international cooperation. In try. She was the UN Youth Delegate of Slovenia in conference Model European her years as a youth activist, she was a scout, rural 2017/2018. She finished her MA programme at Meliha Muherina Union Warsaw offering participants from all youth vice president, board member of the Slove- University of Kent and postgraduate specialisa- (See Opening of the Young BSF 2019.) around Europe an insight into the functioning nian rural youth, president of the Idrija student tion programme in diplomacy at the China For- and aims of the European Union and encouraging club, board member of Youth Centre Idrija and eign Affairs University in Beijing. Gregor Perič them to participate in decision-making processes. others. Member of the National As- She is graduating in International Economics sembly of the Republic of Slove- with a Master’s thesis on regional convergence Meliha Muherina Closing of Young BSF 2019 nia since 2018 (Modern Centre processes across EU regions. (See Opening of the Young BSF 2019.) Party, SMC), Head of the par- Andor Dávid liamentary delegation to the OSCE Parliamentary Mak Selimovic Tjaša Sobočan Deputy Head of Mission at the Assembly, Chair of the Committee on the Econo- (See Let’s talk about Cross-Regional Cooperation: Project Manager at Digital In- Embassy of Hungary in Slove- my, Member of the Committee on European Un- WB6 and V4.) novation Hub Slovenia, sup- nia, 2014–2018. Adviser to the ion Affairs and of the Committee on Infrastruc- porting digital innovations Secretary General of the Hun- ture, Environment and Spatial Planning. Holds a within education and civil soci- garian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. BA in Political Science. Connecting Youth ety. She holds a Master’s degree in Diplomacy Head of consular section at the Hungarian Em- with a special focus on social innovations and bassy in Kosovo, 2011–2012. Diplomat (EU/ Neil Quilliam Majlinda Bregu public diplomacy. She is a Professional Tech Fel- NATO) integration affairs and Deputy Consul at Associate Fellow with the Mid- Secretary General of the Re- low Alumni by WorldChicago (2018) and IVLP the Embassy in Montenegro, 2009–2011. Depart- dle East and North Africa Pro- gional Cooperation Council. Alumni in Digital Economy and Emerging Tech- ment for the Western Balkans at the Foreign gramme at Chatham House. From 2007 to 2013, she served nologies for Social Good in U.S. (2019). Ministry, 2006–2009. He was previously Senior Re- as Minister of European Inte- search Fellow heading the Programme’s Future gration. As a Democratic Party member (Centre Federika Fait Dynamics in the Gulf project. Prior to that, he Right), she was elected Member of Parliament of Digitalization for boosting youth Co-founder and board member was project director of Syria and Its Neighbours Albania for three consecutive legislatures (2005– sector and education – Policy of V4SDG, a youth-led policy initiative and acting head of the MENA 2017). During the 2013–2017 Parliamentary term, Recommendations non-profit initiative aimed at Programme, having first joined Chatham House she initiated several legal initiatives against gen- encouraging action and coop- in January 2014. der-based and domestic violence which are cur- Tanja Fajon eration on the UN SDGs in the Visegrad Four rently in force. A politician and journalist, countries. She is also working on the establish- Musa Shteiwi currently serving as a member ment of a new international school in Budapest, N/A of the European Parliament grounded in the concepts of entrepreneurial Reception (MEP), the Vice Chair of So- learning through real life projects and education Ekaterina Stepanova cialists and Democrats, and the Vice Chair of So- for sustainability. She heads the Peace and Con- Krisela Hackaj cial Democrats of Slovenia. A strong advocate of flict Studies Unit and is a lead Since 2011 Director of the Co- freedom of movement and its economic benefits, Meliha Muherina researcher at the Institute of operation and Development Fajon was a rapporteur on the visa liberalization (See Opening of the Young BSF 2019.) World Economy and Interna- Institute – CDI, an independ- process for the Western Balkans. In 2014, she was tional Relations (IMEMO) in Moscow. She edits ent think tank based in Tirana re-elected as an MEP and became the first Slove- the journal Pathways to Peace and Security and that focuses on research in regional cooperation, nian women to have won her mandate with pref- Conflict and Cooperation in the teaches on international programmes at MGIMO economic and social development dynamics, and erential votes. Mediterranean: Mare Nostrum or Global University, the Russian Presidential Academy of institutional governance. Her main research top- Space? National Economy and Public Administration in ics relate to the EU integration process, regional Anja Fortuna Moscow, and at the European University at St. cooperation, connectivity agenda and youth in (See Digitalization for boosting youth sector and Emiliano Alessandri Petersburg. the Western Balkans. education – Hackhaton.) An international security ex- pert with a focus on Euro-Med- Paolo Trichilo Dafina Peci Jernej Pikalo iterranean security and trans- Career diplomat since 1990, A young political scientist, Slovenia’s Minister of Educa- atlantic relations. He currently currently the Italian Ambassa- Secretary General for NYC Al- tion, Science and Sport. In 2003 serves the OSCE Secretary General in Vienna dor to Slovenia. His previous bania and an Associated Pro- he obtained a PhD in Political where he is in charge of the Mediterranean and postings abroad include Mul- fessor of Classic and Con­tem­ Science from University of Lju- migration portfolios. He also a visiting professor house (Consul), Ankara, New Delhi, and the porary Political Philosophy at the University of bljana. During his academic career, he was also a at the College of Europe in Bruges. OECD. Previous assignments in Rome: CSCE/ Tirana. For 7 years she has been contributing on Marie Curie fellow at the University of Warwick OSCE; International Antiterrorism, Iraq Task community development and youth engagement in the UK. In 2013 he became Full Professor of Dobran Božič Force, Crisis Unit; Diplomatic Adviser to Labour in politics. She is the representative of Albanian Political Science at the University of Ljubljana. He State Secretary in the Slovenian Minister. Other previous activities: scholarship at youth on the RYCO Governing Board. was Minister of Education, Science and Sport Ministry of Foreign Affairs. the University of Iowa (Political Sciences Depart- during 2013/2014. His previous positions include ment); University Assistant to the Italian Judge at Mak Selimović Director of the Government the ECHR; Lieutenant in the Carabinieri. (See Let’s talk about Cross-Regional Cooperation: Peter Ribarič Office for the Protection of Classified Informa- WB6 and V4.) N/A tion, Military Adviser at the Permanent Mission of Slovenia to the United Nations in New York,

Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 37 Bled Strategic Forum Ladeja Godina Košir ElsaMarie D’Silva Winning the ’20s: A Leadership Agenda Founder and Executive Direc- Founder & CEO of Red Dot for the Next Decade tor of Circular Change. She is Foundation (India) and Presi- Opening of the 2019 BSF currently Chair of the Europe- dent of Red Dot Foundation Martin Reeves an Circular Economy Stake- Global (USA), whose platform Miro Cerar Managing Director and Senior holder Platform in Brussels and co-author of the Safecity crowdsources personal experiences of Deputy Prime Minister and Partner at Boston Consulting first Roadmap towards the Circular Economy in sexual violence and abuse in public spaces. Since Minister of Foreign Affairs of Group. He is the global director Slovenia. She was finalist of the Circular Leader- Safecity was launched in 2012, it has become the Slovenia. Between 2014 and of BCG Henderson Institute ship Award 2018 (Davos WEF), recognised as the largest crowd map on the issue in India, Kenya, 2018, he served as Slovenian (BHI), BCG’s strategy think tank, which explores regional engine of circular economy transition. Cameroon, and Nepal. Prime Minister. Before entering politics, he was a ideas beyond the world of business, ideas which Full Professor at the Faculty of Law, University of may have implications for business strategy. He Lilla Judit Bartuszek Ljubljana, and legal adviser to the National As- has led strategy assignments in healthcare, con- The (Soft) Power of Creativity: The (See Working Lunch.) sembly. He has authored and co-authored numer- sumer goods, financial services, and industrial Entertainment Industry in International ous Slovenian and foreign books and scientific goods in Japan, the US, and Europe. Relations Elizabeth Maloba papers. N/A Katarina Čas Marjan Šarec Presentation of the Bled Strategic Slovenian actress who regularly Ivan Nikolovski Prime Minister of the Republic Forum Distinguished Partner 2019 acts in international film and N/A of Slovenia from 2018. He en- Award television productions. She has rolled at the Academy of Thea- worked with some prominent tre, Radio, Film and Television Iztok Mirošič names, including Martin Scorsese, Leonardo Di- NATO: What’s Next? – Views on Euro- in Ljubljana, where he graduated in 2001. He was Ambassador-at-Large, Special Caprio, Margot Robbie, Al Pacino, Christopher Atlantic Security 70 Years after the Mayor of Kamnik from 2010 to 2018. By running Envoy of the Minister and Pro- Plummer, Brendan Gleeson, Mike Myers, Ashley Washington Treaty in the presidential election of 2017, he caught gramme Director of the BSF. Judd etc. She is also active in her home country. much attention on the national political stage. He previously served as Deputy Karl Erjavec Foreign Minister and State Secretary, Ambassa- Bill Elliott Deputy Prime Minister and Peter Grk dor to the UK, Italy, Libya, Tunisia, Malta and San A Grammy- and Emmy-nomi- Minister of Defence of Slovenia (See Opening of the Young BSF 2019.) Marino and Permanent Representative to the UN nated composer, arranger and since September 2018, he previ- IMO, FAO and WFP. He worked as policy adviser conductor, Tony Award win- ously served as Minister of For- to the Prime Minister, Director General for Euro- ner, Professor at Berklee Col- eign Affairs and Minister of the Environment and Conversation with Presidents pean affairs and bilateral political relations and as lege of Music. He has worked with such diverse Spatial Planning. During his term as Defence negotiator for the Arbitration Agreement on the artists as Beyoncé, Tony Bennett, Donna Summer, Minister between 2004 and 2008, he presided over Kersti Kaljulaid state boundary with Croatia. Stevie Nicks, and Smokey Robinson, conducted the Summit of NATO ministers and co-shaped the As of 2016 she is President of the Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Detroit symphonies, EU’s defence policy during Slovenia’s EU Council the Republic of Estonia. From Alenka Bratušek among others, and contributed original songs/ar- presidency. He holds a university degree in law. 2004 to 2016, she was a Mem- Slovenian Minister of Infra- rangements to numerous TV shows and films. ber of the European Court of structure. From March 2013 Damir Črnčec Auditors, responsible, inter alia, for the research until May 2014 she was Prime Žiga Pirnat State Secretary at the Office of and development funds and structural policies. Minister of Slovenia, the first An award-winning musician the Prime Minister. He served Prior to that she served as Prime Minister Mart woman to hold this position. She took charge of who left a promising diplomat- as director of the Slovenian In- Laar’s Economic Advisor. She also worked for the Government at the most challenging period ic career to pursue music. His telligence and Security Agency various Estonian companies. for independent Slovenia as yet. She also served as creative work includes projects and was an adviser for defence policy to the Chief a Member of Parliament. with artists such as Barbra Streisand, Josh Groban, of the General Staff of the Slovenian Armed Forc- Borut Pahor Andrea Bocelli, and Rihanna. He holds three es. Holder of a PhD in Political Science, he is the During his long political ca- Enrico Letta Bachelor’s and a Master’s degree in diverse fields, author or co-author of numerous professional and reer, he was member of the Eu- Dean of the Paris School of In- including international relations and music; cur- scientific articles. ropean Parliament and served ternational Affairs (PSIA) at rently, he is a PhD candidate in linguistics, his as President of the National Sciences Po and President of other love. Dimitrij Rupel Assembly and as Prime Minister of Slovenia. In the Jacques Delors Institute. In Obtained his PhD in sociology at Brandeis Uni- the 2012 presidential ballot, he became the fourth June, he was appointed President of APSIA (Asso- versity in the US. Served as Slovenian Foreign elected President of Slovenia by winning the sup- ciation of Professional Schools of International Networking Reception Minister during the first years of Slovenia’s inde- port of 67.37 per cent of voters. In 2017 he was Affairs). He was the Prime Minister of Italy from pendence, later as Mayor of Ljubljana and Ambas- re-elected for a second term. April 2013 to February 2014. Janez Fajfar sador to Washington. In 2005, he was Chair- Mayor of Bled. He graduated in man-in-Office of the OSCE. During the Slovenian Ali Aslan Ethnology and Geography EU Council presidency in 2008, he was in charge Internationally renowned TV Let’s Talk About Sustainability from the University of Ljublja- of the General Affairs and External Relations presenter and journalist with na in 1979. After travelling the Council of the EU. Currently, he teaches at Lju- over 20 years’ experience. His Andrea Illy world in the ‘80s, he joined the Iron Forging Mu- bljana’s New University. journalistic career includes Chairman of illycaffè, a fami- seum in Kropa as a curator. In 1984, he became a work for CNN, ABC and Deutsche Welle TV. He ly-established business found- reception manager at Hotel Vila Bled and, in 1991, Sven Sakkov regularly moderates at high-level global confer- ed in Trieste, Italy in 1933, with he was appointed the hotel director. In 2006, he Between 2015 and 2017 he ences and has shared the stage with top world the singular mission of produc- was elected mayor of Bled, to be re-elected in 2010, served as Director of NATO leaders, including Angela Merkel, Emmanuel ing the world’s highest quality coffee. Honorary 2014, and 2018. Cooperative Cyber Defence Macron, Justin Trudeau and Bill Clinton. He Chairman of the Association for Science and In- Centre of Excellence and be- studied International Politics and Journalism at formation on Coffee (ASIC), from 2012 to 2016 Janez Škrabec tween 2008 and 2015 as Policy Director at the Columbia University and Georgetown University. Chairman of the International Coffee Organisa- Founder and Managing Direc- Ministry of Defence of Estonia. Previously he was tion’s Coffee Market Promotion and Development tor of Riko, today recognised as posted to the Estonian Embassy in Washington Committee, and since 2013 Chairman of the the most successful engineer- and Mission to NATO, and worked as a national Multilateralism at Crossroads Fondazione Altagamma. ing company in the wider re- security adviser to the President and as Director gion. Honorary Consul of the Kingdom of Mo- of policy planning at the MOD. María Fernanda Espinosa Garcés Janez Potočnik rocco and of the Republic of Belarus and a (State of the World” with H.E. Ms Mar.a Former EU Commissioner for member of many diplomatic and business clubs. Pedro Serrano Fernanda Espinosa Garc.s, President of science and research and for Deputy Secretary General for the General Assembly of the UN".) the environment. He is cur- Peter Grk the Common Security and De- rently Co-Chair of the Interna- (See Opening of the Young 2019 BSF.) fence Policy and Crisis Re- Josep Borrell Fontelles tional Resource Panel hosted by the United Na- sponse at the European Exter- Spain’s Minister of Foreign Af- tions Environment Programme and SystemiQ nal Action Service. His previous positions include fairs, the European Union and Partner, as well as a member of the European Night Owl Session Managing Director for Crisis Response and Oper- Cooperation since 2018. Aero- Policy Centre’s Advisory Council. In 2013 he re- ational Coordination at the EEAS, Principal Ad- nautical engineer, economist ceived the United Nations Champions of the Cecilia Barja visor on External Affairs to the President of the and professor of mathematics who served as Sec- Earth Award. For 20 years, she has led com- European Council, Head of EU Delegation to the retary General in the Government, Minister of plex programs in her home UN in New York, and Head of Civilian Crisis Public Works and Transport, and as President of Jeffrey D. Sachs country of Bolivia and in the Management Directorate at the General Secretar- the European Parliament. He is nominated to be- University Professor and Di- US. Currently, she is a commu- iat of the Council. come the next High Representative of the EU for rector of the Center for Sus- nity organiser in North Carolina, creating collec- Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. tainable Development at Co- tive power to ensure fair treatment of immigrants. Radmila Shekerinska lumbia University, where he Former councilwoman of La Paz and national Minister of Defence and Depu- Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu directed the Earth Institute from 2002 until 2016. secretary of Movimiento Sin Miedo, a political ty Prime Minister of North N/A He is also Director of the UN Sustainable Devel- party. She writes regularly for Bolivian media. Macedonia. She was the Depu- opment Solutions Network and a commissioner of ty Prime Minister who suc- Miro Cerar the UN Broadband Commission for Develop- Amina Benkhadra ceeded in making the country an EU candidate. (See Opening of the 2019 BSF.) ment. He has been adviser to three United Nations N/A Previously a four-term MP; she headed two secretaries-general. OSCE/ODIHR EOMs. She received her MA in Ali Aslan international relations from the Fletcher School of (See Conversation with the Presidents.) Law and Diplomacy.

38 Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 Róbert Vass Matteo Villa Ulrik Vestergaard Knudsen Martin Sandbu Founder and President of Research Fellow for the Migra- Deputy Secretary-General of N/A GLOBSEC, a Bratislava-based tion Programme at the Italian the OECD from January 2019. think tank committed to en- Institute for International Po- His portfolio includes strategic hancing global security, pros- litical Studies (ISPI). He is an direction of several OECD pol- Rules-Based International Order or perity and sustainability. Its mission is to shape expert for the T20 Task Force on Forced Migra- icies. Until 2018, he was Permanent Secretary of the Return of Geopolitics? the future by generating new ideas and solutions tion and has contributed extensively to policy State at the Danish Foreign Ministry. Prior to this, for a safer world. Ranking among the top 5 con- analyses on migration topics for the European he served as Chief Diplomatic Adviser to two Seyed Abbas Araghchi ferences in the world, the GLOBSEC Forum is Parliament, the Italian Parliament, the Lombardy prime ministers and as Ambassador to the OECD Iran’s Deputy Foreign Min- regularly attended by influential politicians, busi- Region, and the Municipality of Milan. and UNESCO. In 2013 he was Group Director for ister for Political Affairs and nesspeople and thought leaders. International Policy in Vodafone, London. a main negotiator in nuclear Amélie Jaques-Apke negotiations. He started his Scott M. Weber Currently head of the Fran- Tim Yeend diplomatic career in 1988 and held numerous President of Interpeace, an in- co-German department at the Principal Adviser and Chef de important positions in the Foreign Ministry, ternational organisation for think tank EuropaNova (Paris) Cabinet to the Director-Gener- including Deputy for Legal and International peacebuilding. Previously, he and co-teaching at SciencesPo al of the WTO since 2013; Affairs, Deputy for Asia–Pacific and the CIS, worked in the Office of the Paris, Amélie had several missions in the public serves as WTO’s Sherpa to the Speaker, Dean of Faculty of International Rela- United Nations Director-General in Geneva and sector (French Parliament, Franco-German G20. He previously occupied senior positions tions, and Ambassador to Tokyo and Helsinki. in disaster preparedness. He holds a BA in Inter- Youth Office, the Ministry of Interior in Paris with the Australian Government in the Depart- He holds a PhD in Political Science from the national Relations, Economics and Russian from (migration, asylum) and the European Union ment of Foreign Affairs and Trade – Ambassador University of Kent. Georgetown University; Certificates of Executive Delegation in Washington DC). Her PhD adresses to the WTO and other IGOs in Geneva 2010–2013; Education in Leadership from Harvard Universi- the post- Berlin wall security environment. First Assistant Secretary, Office of Trade Negotia- Babafemi Badejo ty’s JFK School of Government and Oxford Uni- tions. An Attorney by profession, versity’s Saïd Business School. Martijn Pluim CEO of Yintab Strategy Director for Migration Dia- Guy De Launey Consults. He retired from Emir Hasanović logues and Cooperation at the Balkans Correspondent for different roles at UN peace N/A International Centre for Mi- BBC News since 2012. He was operations: Deputy Special Representative of gration Policy Development previously BBC correspondent UN Secretary-General; Chief of Staff and Po- Jelko Kacin (ICMPD). He supervises the ICMPD’s project in Southeast Asia, based in litical Affairs. Recently, he has consulted at the N/A portfolio and the secretariats of the intergovern- Phnom Penh, for 8 years. He is also a correspond- African Union on the implementation of the mental migration dialogues supported by the IC- ent for Monocle magazine and presents The Glo- African Humanitarian Agency roadmap. He is MPD, including the Prague Process, the Budapest balist and Daily programmes on Monocle 24. He Senior Adviser to former presidents and Presi- (Re)sources on the Move Process, the Khartoum Process and the Rabat has lived and worked in Japan, reported from dent, Court of the Prime Minister, Bahrain. Process. He previously worked for the European dozens of countries around the world and inter- The Honourable Carmelo Commission and was a member of the EU adviso- viewed everyone from Ban Ki-Moon to Jackie Jean-Christophe Belliard Abela ry board on trafficking in human beings. Chan. Currently the EEAS Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and Secretary-General for Polit- Trade Promotion of the Repub- Camino Mortera-Martinez ical Affairs. As a career dip- lic of Malta. In 1990, he joined Senior Research Fellow at the Tax Them If You Can: Fiscal (Re)sources lomat he previously served the Mid-Med Bank Ltd, today HSBC Bank Malta Centre for European Reform in in a Globalised World as French Ambassador to Madagascar to Ethi- plc, where he worked as a Manager until April Brussels. Prior to joining the opia and to the African Union, as well as Di- 2014. Until December 2014, he worked with the CER, she advised the European Marko Mršnik rector for Africa and the Indian Ocean at the Prime Minister as the Government Spokesman Commission and worked at a law firm and a large Senior Director in the Europe- French Foreign Ministry and as Special Envoy and Whip. In 2014, he was ppointed Minister for German company. A qualified lawyer; holds a an Sovereign Ratings Group at for Africa of former EU High Representative Home Affairs and National Security. On the 9th MA from the College of Europe. S&P Global Ratings, focusing Javier Solana. of June 2017, he was appointed Minister for For- on the eurozone sovereigns, the eign Affairs and Trade Promotion. ECB and the EFSF. Before joining S&P Global Chang Jae-bok Protectionism as a Source of Global Ratings, he was an economist in the European Ambassador for Public Di- Nina Gregori Instability Commission specialising in the euro area macro- plomacy at the Korean In June she took over her duties economics and a consultant for the EIB. He is the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. as Executive Director of Mal- Lawrence Agyinsam author of S&P reports on the impact of demo- Having joined the Ministry ta-based European Asylum With over 20 years’ experience graphic and climate changes on sovereign ratings. in 1988, he was appointed Chief of Protocol Support Office (EASO). She in banking, finance and invest- (Deputy Minister) in 2018. Prior to that, he previously occupied senior management posts in ment management, he assumed Sarah Perret served as Consul-General in Milan from 2014 the area of asylum, migration, integration and in- office as CEO of the Ghana An Economist and Deputy to 2018 and Minister Counsellor in the Korean ternal administrative affairs at the Slovenian Export-Import Bank in March 2017, effectively Head of Unit at the OECD Cen- Permanent Delegation to UNESCO from 2009 Ministry of the Interior. She has a university de- collaborating with export credit agencies and tre for Tax Policy and Adminis- to 2012. gree in political science from the University of EXIM Banks across the globe for SME and indus- tration. Her unit is responsible Ljubljana. try development, capacity building, strategy de- for following global tax reform trends and for Theresa Fallon velopment, export promotion and reduction of conducting assessments of countries’ tax systems. Founder and director of Shada Islam Ghana’s import bill in specific sectors. She is also the author of a number of studies on Centre for Russia Europe Director for Europe and geo- wealth taxation and on tax design for inclusive Asia Studies in Brussels. She politics at Friends of Europe, Sandra Gallina growth. is concurrently a member of she is also Visiting Professor at Having joined the European Council for Security Cooperation in Asia-Pa- the College of Europe (Natolin) Commission in 1988, she is to- Frank-Jürgen Richter cific and Nonresident Senior Fellow of the and a Fellow at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel day Deputy Director General at Chairman of Horasis, a global Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Previously (VUB). Politico has named her as one of twenty DG TRADE and the EU chief visions community dedicated she was a member of the Strategic Advisors most influential women in Brussels. She is the negotiator for the EU-MERCOSUR Free Trade to inspiring our future. Horasis Group for NATO Supreme Allied Commander author of Friends of Europe’s much-read Frankly Agreement. Between 2014 and 2018 she was Di- hosts the annual Horasis Glob- Europe (SACEUR) and worked in both Russia Speaking commentary. rector for Sustainable Development, Economic al Meeting as well as regional summits focusing and China. Partnership Agreements – ACP, Agri-food and on China, India, and South East Asia. Richter has Karin Kneissl Fisheries at DG TRADE. gained extensive experience and knowledge of the Walter Kemp From December 2017 to June world’s economic, business and political scene Head of the Strategic Policy 2019 she served as Minister of Rem Korteweg and of its key players. Support Unit in the OSCE Foreign Affairs of Austria. She Senior Research Fellow at the Secretariat. His previous studied law and Arabic at the Clingendael Institute in the Karl Soukup positions include spokes- University of Vienna, Hebrew University of Jeru- Netherlands. His current re- Since 2013, he heads the direc- man and speechwriter at the United Nations salem and at GU. She is a graduate of ENA. Served search interests include the fu- torate in charge of state aid Office on Drugs and Crime, Vice President of in the MFA between 1990 and 1998, then turned ture of the global trade system, Brexit, and Eu- control in fiscal aid, research, the International Peace Institute, and a senior into a freelance analyst; she has authored several rope’s relations with China and the US. He has development and innovation adviser to both the OSCE Secretary General books on energy and geopolitics. worked at the Centre for European Reform in aid, as well as regional development aid at the and the OSCE High Commissioner on nation- London and the Netherlands’ Ministry of Foreign European Commission’s DG Competition. This al minorities. Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson Affairs, and was a Fulbright scholar at Johns Hop- includes work on aggressive tax planning, in par- Cardinal Peter Turkson, for- kins SAIS. ticular investigating selective fiscal schemes and Iztok Mirošič mer Archbishop of Cape Coast, individual tax rulings. (See Presentation of the Bled Strategic Forum served as Relator during the II Mojmir Mrak Distinguished Partner 2019 Award.) Synod for Africa in 2009 and is Full Professor at the School of Paul Tang President of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Economics, University of Lju- Dutch MEP for the Socialists Richard Moore CMG Peace. He has been appointed by Pope Francis as bljana and Visiting Professor at and Democrats in the Europe- Currently Director General first Prefect of the new Dicastery for promoting universities in Austria and an Parliament since 2014, a for Political Affairs at the Integral Human Development. France. His main research fields include public member of the parliamentary British Foreign & Com- finances as international trade and capital flows. Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. monwealth Office. Previ- He has served as a consultant to international or- In the European Parliament, he battles for more ously served as Deputy National Security Ad- ganisations and to governments of several SEE jobs, a healthy financial sector at the service of viser; British Ambassador to Turkey; Director countries. society and more legitimacy for Europe. for Europe, Latin America and Globalisation; Director for Programmes and Change; and at

Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 39 posts in Vietnam, Turkey, Pakistan and Malaysia. national partnerships by connecting govern- served as Head of the Office of the State Secretary pany. He graduated from Vienna Economic Uni- He read Philosophy, Politics and Economics at ments, knowledge institutions and businesses. for European Affairs. In 2013 he became Head versity with a Master’s degree in Business Oxford University, followed by a post-graduate For over a decade he was Director of Strategy & Adviser to the Prime Minister on EU affairs. In Administration in 2001. study at Harvard University and the Stanford Ex- PA at SUEZ and served on the board of the Dutch 2018, he was appointed Head of the Slovenian EU ecutive Programme. Waste Management Association. Presidency 2021 preparations. Samir Sharma CEO of datazuum, a data strat- Tobias Flessenkemper Bernard Fautrier Andreas Peschke egy and analytics consultancy. Head of the Office of the Coun- He served as Minister for Pub- Since July 2018 he has been Di- As a thought leader, he works cil of Europe in Belgrade. His lic Works and Social Affairs of rector-General for European with private and public sectors previous postings include the Monaco (1984–1995) and Min- Affairs at the Federal Foreign creating and delivering sustainable data strategies EEAS in Bosnia-Herzegovina, ister for International Cooper- Office in Berlin. His previous for growth and efficiency. He has been elected the the Council of the EU in Brussels, Skopje and Sa- ation (1995–2003). Until 2003, he chaired the positions include German Embassies in Nigeria Faculty Lead for Data Strategy at the PWC Lead- rajevo, the OSCE and ZIF-Berlin. In 2012-13 he Barcelona Convention. He presently chairs the and Russia, and the Minister’s Office. He was ership Academy. was visiting fellow at the German Institute for In- Monaco Committee of the World Energy Coun- Deputy Spokesperson as well as Spokesperson of ternational and Security Affairs (SWP). In 2013 cil, the Med Fund, the Be Med NGO (on plastic in the Federal Foreign Office. He served as Ambas- Jolene Creighton he co-founded elbarlament.org. From 1998 to the Mediterranean) and co-chairs the Interna- sador to Kenya and Director for Eastern Europe, Editorial Director of Boma 2001 he was Secretary General of the European tional Coral Reef Initiative (ICRI). the Caucasus and Central Asia, Berlin. Global. Prior to this, she was Youth Forum in Brussels. the founding Editor-in-Chief Kari Herlevi Dimitrij Rupel of Futurism, recently acquired A versatile multi-talent in the (See NATO: What’s Next?.) by Singularity University. Over the course of her State of Human Rights: A Conversation field of the circular economy. career, she has taught over a dozen university with the UN High Commissioner for He is currently leading the cir- Young BSF Representative courses on digital publishing and provided strate- Human Rights cular economy area at Sitra, the (TBA) gic consultancy to governments, non-profits, and Finnish Innovation Fund. Previously, he was re- start-ups with a wide variety of communications Michelle Bachelet Jeria sponsible for the Resource-efficient economy area Alojz Peterle needs. UN High Commissioner for at Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Innova- Cofounder and former Presi- Human Rights (since Septem- tion. He also worked in the Tekes Silicon Valley dent of Slovenian Christian ber 2018); two-time president office for a few years. Democratic Party, former (Re)sources in Women’s Hands: Tapping of Chile (2006–2010, 2014– Prime Minister and Foreign the Potential 2018), Defence Minister, Health Minister. First Marjeta Jager Minister of Slovenia, MEP 2004 - 2015, represent- Executive Director of UN Women. She has Deputy Director-General in ative of the than candidate countries in the Prae- Lady Barbara Judge CBE chaired the ILO/WHO Social Protection Floor the European Commission’s sidium of the European Convention, former Spe- A trained commercial lawyer Advisory Group, the Partnership for Maternal, DG DEVCO. She started as Di- cial Envoy of OSCE for Central Asia, Chief with a successful international Newborn and Child Health and co-chaired the rector for Security in 2005, later Observer of EU Election Observation Missions in career as a senior executive, High-Level Steering Group for Every Woman becoming Director for International Energy Af- Nigeria, Kenya and Kosovo. chairman and non-executive Every Child. fairs, and Head of Cabinet of the Transport Com- director. She was Chairman of the UK Atomic missioner. Before joining the Commission she Charles Powell Energy Authority and UK Pension Protection Dan Damon worked for the Slovenian Ministry of Foreign Af- Director of the Elcano Royal Fund. Currently she holds the chairmanship of He has presented the daily BBC fairs since 1991 and was the first Deputy Perma- Institute and Professor of Con- the Astana Financial Services Authority and the World Update radio pro- nent Representative of Slovenia to the EU. temporary History at CEU San UK fraud prevention agency. In 2010 she was gramme since 2003. Earlier, Pablo University. He holds a BA awarded Commander of the British Empire. with his wife Sian, he set up a Ben Macpherson in History and Modern Languages from Oxford news agency in Budapest covering the collapse of Minister for Europe, Migration University, where he also obtained his D. Phil for Nasser Kamel Communism across Eastern Europe and the Sovi- and International Develop- a thesis on Spain’s transition to democracy. He has Secretary General of the Union et Union. Reporting the war in Yugoslavia, they ment in the Scottish Govern- published six books and dozens of articles on for the Mediterranean. He adopted their daughter Lejla as a baby in Sarajevo ment from 2018. His previous Spanish history, politics and foreign policy. served as Ambassador to the in 1992. Lejla now campaigns against sexual vio- employment also includes working in the renewa- UK and France and was Assis- lence in war. ble energy sector, in a school, for an NGO and in Data – (Re)source of the Future tant Minister for Arab and Middle Eastern Affairs financial services. He studied at University of and Director of Egypt’s Public Information Ser- Edinburgh and University of York. He was elected Julian King vice. He took part in the drafting of the Joint Climate Change – Saving the Planet by MSP in May 2016. EU Commissioner for the Se- Declaration of the 2008 Paris Summit that marked Going Circular curity Union. He joined the the launch of the Union for the Mediterranean. Jack Pineda Dale Foreign & Commonwealth Of- Pekka Haavisto Microsoft’s Legal Director for fice in 1985 and held various Ulrik Vestergaard Knudsen Minister for Foreign Affairs of Baltics, Slovenia and Serbia positions, including UK Ambassador to France (See Protectionism as a Source of Global Instabil- Finland. During his career, he based in Helsinki. He specialis- (2016); Director General Economic & Consular ity.) has held several high-level posi- es in AI, technologies and legal (2014); DG of the Northern Ireland Office London tions both within the UN sys- issues arising from those. Prior to his role as Legal and Belfast (2011); UK Ambassador to Ireland Monica McWilliams tem and in the EU with a focus on conflict-affect- Director, he was an Attorney Lead in Microsoft’s (2009); Chef de Cabinet to EU Commissioner for Chairperson of Interpeace and ed settings. He served twice as Minister in the Digital Crimes Unit specialising in Cybersecurity Trade (2008); UK Representative on EU Political Emeritus Professor at Ulster fields of environment and international develop- and Cybercrime. He holds a Master’s in Interna- and Security Committee, (2004). A graduate of University. She was signatory of ment prior to his current appointment, and has tional Business Law from the University of Hel- Oxford University and the Ecole Nationale d’Ad- the Belfast/Good Friday Agree- been a Member of Parliament of the Finnish sinki. ministration, Paris. ment and Chief Commissioner of the Northern Green Party for over 24 years. Ireland Human Rights Commission; co-founded Ladeja Godina Košir Levente Juhasz the Women’s Coalition and represented South Alejandro Adler (See Let’s Talk About Sustainability.) A public policy manager at Belfast on the Legislative Assembly. She was Over- Director of Well-being Science Google for Central and Eastern sight Commissioner for prison reform and serves and Policy at the UN Sustaina- Europe. He leads on the topics on the Independent Reporting Commission for ble Development Solutions What Lies Ahead for the New European of digital transformation, eco- Disbandment of Paramilitary Organisations. Network. Associate Editor for Commission? nomic contribution and sustainability in the re- two of SDSN’s annual publications: the World gion. Prior to joining Google, he spent five years Melanie Seier Larsen Happiness Report and the Global Happiness Poli- Pierre Heilbronn in the energy sector working in EU affairs, strate- A Managing Director and cy Report. He is also Deputy Director of the Glob- Member of the EBRD Execu- gy and business development, and innovation Partner at the Boston Consult- al Happiness and Well-being Council and an As- tive Committee responsible for management. ing Group. She is the first and sociate Research Scientist at the Center for the Bank’s economic, policy only female CEE partner at Sustainable Development in the Earth Institute at and reform agenda, coordina- Claudia Olsson BCG. With 15 years’ experience in management Columbia University. tion within country strategies and European Founder of Stellar Capacity, a consulting, her primary focus is on consumer member states and institutions, managing bilater- global education company spe- products, retail, people and organisation func- Cathrine Barth al and multilateral donor partnerships and ensur- cialised in providing strategic tionality topics. Since 2014, she is President of Co-founde of Circular Norway, ing the inclusive engagement of civil society. Be- advice, analysis and profession- Women Managers at the Managers’ Association an business NGO with pur- fore joining the EBRD in 2016, he was deputy al development related to digital transformation. of Slovenia. pose to accelerate the transition chief of staff for the French Minister of Economy She is a member of the High Level Industrial to circular economy in Norway and Finance. Roundtable Industry 2030 at the European Com- Aleksander Zalaznik and drive global and local collaboration. She be- mission, a Young Global Leader at the World President of the Managers’ Asso- holds an Executive Master of Management in Guillaume Klossa Economic Forum and has served on the Faculty of ciation of Slovenia, the chairman Green Growth and Sustainable Business model- N/A Singularity University. of the Management Board 2017- ling from Oslo Business School. She is a former 2020 and Senior Vice President journalist, has extensive corporate background Enrico Letta Gregor Pilgram Commercial Controls at Danfoss Heating Segment and years of experience as an innovation advisor. (See Presentation of the Bled Strategic Forum Supervisor of the financial per- and General Manager of Danfoss Trata. Amongst Distinguished Partner 2019 Award.) formance and strategic devel- the awards he received for his economic achieve- Freek van Eijk opment of ten CEE countries ments are the awards for extraordinary achievement CEO of Holland Circular Hot- Igor Mally out of the Generali CEE Hold- in economy in 2012 and for exemplary business and spot, a public-private initiative State Secretary at the Office of ing. He was CEO of Generali Slovenia and Presi- entrepreneurial achievements in 2007. He is also a that wants to make Circular the Prime Minister. He was in- dent of the Supervisory Board of Generali Croatia. long-time member of the Managers’ Association of Economy happen by sharing volved in negotiations on Slo- Recently he has become President of the Supervi- Slovenia and from 2008 onwards a member of its knowledge and innovation, and stimulate inter- venia’s accession to the EU and sory Board of Adriatic Slovenica insurance com- Management Board.

40 Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 Simona Leskovar Ivica Dačić Goran Svilanović of directors of bilateral chambers, various private State Secretary at the Slovenian Minister of Foreign Affairs of Served as Secretary General of sector companies and non-profit institutions. Ministry of Foreign Affairs. A Serbia since 2014. He was Dele- the Regional Cooperation career diplomat, she served as gate in the Chamber of Citizens Council (2013–2018) and was Ernest Petrič Ambassador to Japan and the of the Federal Assembly of the Co-ordinator of the OSCE’s Former diplomat, Ambassador Republic of Korea. In 2013, the Government ap- Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (1992–2004), Min- economic and environmental activities (2008– to the UN, Judge, past Presi- pointed her R2P National Focal Point. Prior to ister of Information (2000–2001) and Minister of 2012). Between 2004 and 2007, he chaired the dent of the Constitutional that she was Deputy Permanent Representative to the Interior of the Republic of Serbia (2008-2014), working table for democratisation and human Court, a member and President the UN in New York and the Foreign Minister’s and was appointed Prime Minister in the 2012– rights of the Stability Pact for SEE. From 2000 to of the International Law Commission, past Presi- adviser in his Cabinet during Slovenia’s first EU 2014 period. He became the leader of the Socialist 2004 he was Minister of Foreign Affairs of the dent of the Board of Governors of the Internation- Council Presidency in 2008. Between 2001 and Party of Serbia in 2006. Federal Republic of Yugoslavia/Serbia and Mon- al Atomic Energy Agency. 2004 she served at the Slovenian Embassy in tenegro. Washington. Srdjan Darmanović Leif-Kristian Sverstad Montenegrin Foreign Minister, Honorary Consul of Yemen in Professor at the University of Closing of the 2019 BSF Norway, Chairman and Presi- Disinformation Campaigns – A Source Montenegro, and a member of dent of Corps Consulaire de of Instability in Eastern Partnership the Venice Commission and MFA Slovenia Representative Norvège, FICAC Director and Countries the European Council on Foreign Relations. His N/A Chairman of the Trade & Economic Development previous positions include Ambassador to the US, Committee, FICAC delegate to the United Na- Angelina Gros-Tchorbadjiyska founding father and the first dean of the Faculty tions Economic and Social Council. He is the N/A of Political Science, founder and President of the Brexit: Where Next? owner and Managing Director of Falk Maritime, Podgorica-based think-tank CEDEM and a a shipbroking and investment company, and Elina Lange-Ionatamishvili founding member of the Diplomatic Academy. Stefaan De Rynck holds several national and international board N/A Senior Adviser to Michel Barni- and counsellor positions. Nikola Dimitrov er, Chief EU Negotiator for Vakhtang Makharoblishvili Minister of Foreign Affairs of Brexit, in charge of strategy, re- Katja Geršak He has worked at the Ministry the Republic of North Macedo- lations with think tanks and (See Opening of the Young BSF 2019.) of Foreign Affairs of Georgia nia. His past engagements in- public engagement. Previously, he was Head of Unit since graduation and has held clude Deputy Foreign Minister, in the department for the single market and finan- increasingly important posi- as well as Ambassador to the US and the Nether- cial regulation. He has worked on various other EU Start:up Slovenia Meet-up with Yossi Vardi tions within its structure, including Director of lands. He was a national coordinator for NATO policies, including transport, labour markets, the the Department for International Organisations, integration. Between 2014 and 2017, he was a dis- environment, and regional development. Yossi Vardi Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN, and tinguished fellow at The Hague Institute for Glob- One of Israel’s early entrepre- Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs. al Justice. He holds a LL.B (Saints Cyril and Thomas Raines neurs with an extensive Gov- Methodius University, Skopje) and LL.M (Cam- Head of the Europe Pro- ernment career, including the Alexandr Roitman bridge University). gramme at Chatham House. post of Director General at the Spokesperson, Head of the Previously, he was manager ministries of development and of energy. Chair- Public Diplomacy, Strategic Vedran Džihić and research fellow with the man of the Israel National Oil Company and of Communication and Interac- Senior Researcher at oiip – programme. Prior to joining Chatham House, he Israel Chemicals, with 86 high tech investments. tion with the Press Service of Austrian Institute for Interna- worked as an analyst in the Strategy Unit of the Exits to AOL, Cisco, Microsoft, Ebay, Yahoo, IAC; the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European In- tional Affairs, Co-Director of Foreign & Commonwealth Office. His research instant messaging pioneer. Co-chairman of the tegration of the Republic of Moldova. Previously Center for Advanced Studies, interests lie in British foreign policy, EU politics, DLD conference. Participated in Israeli peace talks held different positions at the MFAEI and the South East Europe (CAS SEE) and Senior Lectur- and public attitudes to international affairs. with the Palestinians, Egypt, Syria, and Jordan. Embassy of the Republic of Moldova to Moscow er at the University of Vienna. He is a member of accredited concurrently in Tajikistan, Kazakh- BIEPAG and an advisory board member of the Ivan Rogers stan and Kyrgyzstan. European Forum Alpbach. He is the author of N/A Business Bled Strategic Forum four monographs and editor/co-editor of further Veronika Víchová 17 edited volumes/books. Gisela Stuart Co-author of a study on how Chair of Change Britain, suc- AmCham Reinvention Breakfast – Kremlin propaganda portrays Behgjet Pacolli cessor organisation to the offi- Predicting the Unpredictable: How to European leaders published by Minister of Foreign Affairs of cial Leave campaign in 2016. Win in the Flow of Constant Change? The Atlantic Council and the Kosovo. He started his political She was a Labour MP from annual Kremlin Watch Ranking, she compiles the career as a Member of the Par- 1997 to 2017 and a minister in the Blair govern- Ina Kukovič Borovnik Kremlin Watch Briefing, a newsletter on influ- liament in 2007 and was ment. Focused on foreign affairs and security. Having started out as a lawyer, ence operations for more than 7,000 European re-elected in 2011. The same year he served for a Since 2018 she is Chair of Wilton Park, an execu- she went to live and work in experts, journalists and officials. She participated short period of time as President of Kosovo. From tive agency of the Foreign & Commonwealth Of- China as a sustainability con- in the Transatlantic Fellowship Program in 2010 until 2014 he was First Deputy Prime Minister. fice. sultant, came back to Slovenia Washington at the office of Senator Rob Portman. to be the Prime Minister’s Spokesperson, later Matthew Palmer Side-events finished her MBA, and became a professional Mark V. Vlašič Deputy Assistant Secretary in yoga instructor. She is a business owner, facilita- N/A the Bureau of European and Resources of Modern Diplomacy: Honorary tor, speaker, chief reinvention officer. She works Eurasian Affairs at the US De- Consuls and Their Renewed Role in, for and with Nature. Oana Popescu partment of State with respon- Former Romanian State Secre- sibility for the Western Balkans and the Aegean. Marko Smole Niko Slavnič tary for EU Affairs and cur- His earlier tours included Belgrade, Nicosia, the Holder of a PhD in non-career An MBA Professor, CEO, serial rently Director of GlobalFocus US Mission to the United Nations, and various diplomacy. An honorary con- entrepreneur, angel investor, Center, an independent foreign positions in Washington, including on the Secre- sul, founder and two-time author and most of all, a crea- policy think-tank. She is an international consult- tary’s Policy Planning staff and at the National President of Slovenian Consu- tive soul always open to new ant, media commentator, writer and lecturer spe- Security Council. He is a distinguished graduate lar Corps. Between 2004 and 2012 he was Vice challenges. As the founder of IQbator, he has cialised in geopolitics and security in the EU/ of the National War College. President of the European Federation of Consular supported more than 1000 startups since 2001. NATO neighbourhood, political risk and strategic Corps. In 2016 he was elected Director of FICAC, CEO of global InYourPocket Guides, founder of analysis, EU policies, democratic transformation, Péter Szijjártó the World Federation of Consuls. He is the The Slovenia Institute, creator of The Slovenia asymmetric threats and shifting models of gov- Minister of Foreign Affairs and Founder and Director of the AC Investment com- Restaurant Awards. Lecturer at ESSCA and IEDC ernance. Trade of Hungary. He has been pany. - Bled School of Management. a Member of Parliament for Fidesz since 2002, and in 2018 Klemen Jaklič Joseph Dumoulin Western Balkans - Europeisation, began his fifth term in Parliament. From 2006 to Judge of the Constitutional Professional programmer since Democratisation, Shared Responsibility 2010 he was Fidesz Communications Director, the Court of Slovenia and Full Pro- 1985. For the last 15+ years, Prime Minister’s Spokesperson from 2010 to 2012 fessor of Constitutional Law at most of his work centres around Pekka Haavisto and Minister of State for Foreign Affairs and Ex- the Faculty of Law and Busi- machine learning and natural (See Climate Change – Saving the Planet by Going ternal Economic Relations from 2012 to 2014. ness Studies, Ljubljana. Former Lecturer on Law language processing, and managing a research Circular.) at Harvard Law School, Harvard University, and team at Verint, the Customer Engagement Compa- full member of the European Commission for ny. He has helped create some of the earliest and Majlinda Bregu Young BSF Representative Democracy through Law. Author of Constitu- most widely-used commercial automated conver- (See Connecting Youth.) tional Pluralism in the EU, Oxford University sational applications and a number of early com- John O’Brennan Press 2014. mercial prototypes in the conversational AI space. Igor Crnadak Holder of the Jean Monnet Minister of Foreign Affairs of Chair in European Integration Nikolaos K. Margaropoulos Josko Mrndze BiH. Former member of the and Director of the Maynooth Secretary General of the Inter- Country manager at Google European Integration Com- Centre for European and Eura- national Federation of Consu- Adriatic, helping businesses in mittee of the National Assem- sian Studies at Maynooth University, he specialis- lar Corps and Associations. the region be successful online. bly of Republika Srpska. Served as Deputy Minis- es in the politics of the EU’s enlargement policy Managing Partner of Scientia His previous positions include ter of Defence of BiH and Chairman of the BiH and has published widely on this topic in academ- Legis Law Firm in Thessaloniki and Athens. Hon- Board Member at InBev Croatia, Managing Di- NATO Coordination Team. Between May and ic journals. He is also a regular contributor to orary Consul of the Philippines in Thessaloniki rector of Blitz Film and Video distribution, Man- November 2015, he was Chairman of the Com- media discussions of the European Union. since 1995. He has been bestowed the title of cav- aging Director of McCann Erickson Croatia, and mittee of Ministers of Council of Europe. aliere by the Italian President. Member of boards Member of Supervisory Board of InBev Croatia.

Bled Strategic Times, 30 August – 3 September 2019 41 Gregor Potočar Valeria Duflot Aleš Cantarutti Gregor Benčina N/A Co-founder of Venezia Auten- He has a degree in Sociology. In CEO of the EBS Group since tica and Overtourism Solution, 2008, he took employment at 2002. Manager of the Year of St. Matthias Sachs whose goals are to make tour- the Chamber of Commerce & C. Europe (2010), Young Director of Corporate Affairs ism a driver of sustainable de- and Industry of Slovenia and Manager of the Year in Slovenia and Government Affairs Lead velopment by leveraging digital technologies and was made the director of the Centre for Interna- (2006). Member of the Olympic Committee of for Microsoft in Central & collaborating with governments. She is an advo- tional Relations at the Chamber in 2009. The Slo- Slovenia and of the Governing Board of the Euro- Eastern Europe since 2015. Be- cate of the use of tech and innovation to create venian Government appointed him State Secre- pean Athletic Association. Partner at the Athletic fore joining Microsoft as Government Affairs impact and has been leading projects empowering tary at the Ministry of Economic Development Diamond League in Monaco. Since 2015, he has Manager for Germany in 2012, he worked as a communities for the past ten years. and Technology in December 2014, where he was been Honorary Consul of Finland in Slovenia. business and public affairs consultant and as po- reappointed in September 2018. litical adviser to a MP of the Federal State of North Tanja Mihalič Bernard Fautrier Rhine-Westphalia. As Professor at the University Rastislav Chovanec (See Climate Change – Saving the Planet by Going of Ljubljana, she leads two After obtaining his PhD from Circular.) Uroš Majcen world’s top ranked tourism the University of Economics in Head of the Security Operation management master programs. Bratislava in 2006, he was Ad- Tom Fux Center Department, dealing Her current positions include board member of viser to the Prime Minister for The Slovenian Tom Fux is CEO with ever-increasing cyber se- Tourism Ljubljana, member of the World Com- FDIs. In 2012, he became State Secretary respon- of Toyota Fleet Mobility Eu- curity threats and response to mittee on Tourism Ethics at the UN World Tour- sible for the business environment, investments, rope and has more than 20 them at the local and regional levels. His responsi- ism Organisation and expert research evaluator trade and innovation. He is also Chairman of the years’ experience in the compa- bilities include consulting, building up capabili- for the Research Executive Agency of the Europe- Supervisory Board of SPP – Distribúcia, the larg- ny. His previous positions include President of ties and services to prevent, control and respond an Commission. est Slovak distributor of natural gas. Toyota Germany, Director of sales operations of to cyber security disruptions for organisations Toyota Motor Europe, and Managing Director of and institutions. Member of a number of indus- Jaka Repanšek Valerio De Luca Toyota Adria. try-related organisations. Jaka Repansek LL.B, MBA, is Founder and Executive Chair- the founder and managing man of the International Acad- Janez Potočnik Ajša Vodnik partner of RePublis Consult- emy for Social and Economic (See Let’s Talk About Sustainability.) CEO of the American Cham- ing. He has been working for Development and Executive ber of Commerce in Slovenia – various TIME (Telecom, Internet, Media, Enter- Director of the Global Sustainability Forum. Ex- Ana Roš AmCham Slovenia and Vice tainment) companies. He obtained his graduate ecutive President of Global Investors Alliance and A self-taught chef, she has been Chair of AmChams in Europe. degree from Cambridge University and Faculty of President of the Strategic Council, Universal named the world’s best female Previously she worked in the media, first as a Law in Ljubljana (European Community Law) Trust Global Advisory. He is Pro-Chancellor and chef in 2017 by the Restaurant journalist, then as editor-at-large and TV host, and completed two-year MBA graduate studies at Visiting Professor at the University of Kigali, magazine. She and her life and went on to launch TV Paprika television sta- the University of Kansas. Rwanda. Formerly, he was legal adviser at CON- partner Valter Kramar own Hiša Franko (Kobar- tion at the early age of 29. SOB, the public authority responsible for regulat- id, Slovenia), one of the leading restaurants in ing the Italian financial markets. Europe which in June 2019 was ranked 38th on The Three Dimensions of Artificial the 50 World’s Best Restaurants list. Tourism for All Destinations: Dispersal Intelligence: Science, Business & Miha Polak over Place and Time People Principal Banker, Acting Head Rok Vodnik of Slovenia, EBRD. Before join- Member of the Management Zdravko Počivalšek Yossi Vardi ing the EBRD in 2014, he was Board of the Petrol Group, In 2014, and again in 2018, he (See Start:up Slovenia Meet-up with Yossi Vardi.) Director of Corporate Banking holds a Master’s degree in man- was appointed Minister of Eco- at SID Bank. Previously he held various positions in agement and organisation. He nomic Development and Tech- Joseph Dumoulin New York, Ljubljana and London with LBS Bank, started his business career at Avtotehna-Canon nology. He has a degree in Ag- (See AmCham Reinvention Breakfast.) Deloitte, and Erste Bank. He holds a MIEM degree and later joined Kolektor. In 1999, he moved to the ricultural Engineering. For 15 years, he managed from SDA Bocconi, an MBA from American Uni- US to manage the founding of Comtrade USA. the Terme Olimia spa resort. He won the Cham- Julian King versity and BA from Florida Southern College. His areas of expertise and responsibility include ber of Commerce and Industry award for out- (See Data – (Re)source of the Future.) sales, trading, energy, and the environment. standing economic and entrepreneurial achieve- Boštjan Skalar ments in 2004 and was declared Manager of the Levente Juhasz CEO of the WAIPA, the umbrella organisation of Martin Porter Year 2010. (See Data – (Re)source of the Future.) IPAs established in 1995 under the auspices of He joined the Cambridge In- UNCTAD. Previously he served as Director of stitute for Sustainability Lead- Maja Pak Michael May SPIRIT Slovenia – Public Agency for Entrepre- ership as Executive Chair of For over 20 years she has Heads the Company Core neurship, Internationalization, Foreign Invest- CISL Brussels from the Euro- worked for the Slovenian Tour- Technology Data Analytics & ments and Technology as well as Slovenian Con- pean Climate Foundation, where he was Europe ist Board and led the transfor- AI at Siemens. In Siemens Cor- sul for Economic Affairs in Istanbul. Group Co-ordinator, having been an EU Public mation of Slovenia into the porate Technology, Munich, he Affairs consultant on industry, environment and world’s first green destination and a leader in is responsible for fourteen research groups in Eu- Luka Vesnaver sustainability issues since 1996. He is a repre- sustainability in tourism. Her vision of Slovenia as rope, the US, and Asia. He drives in AI & data A Financial Advisory Services sentative on the Consultative Commission on a green boutique destination for 5-star experienc- analytics research at Siemens. Before joining the Partner at Deloitte with more Industrial Change of the European Economic es has gained unanimous support among stake- company in 2013, he was Head of the Knowledge than 18 years of experience in and Social Committee, a member of UCL’s Euro- holders in Slovenian tourism. Discovery Department at Fraunhofer IAIS in providing services to clients pean Institute Advisory Board and on Board of Bonn, Germany. across the Central European region. During his the Sustainable Biomass Programme. Daniela Wagner career he has managed and successfully closed a Regional Director for Europe, Jernej Pikalo number of complex corporate restructuring the Middle East and Africa at (See Digitalization for boosting youth sector and transactions involving multiple stakeholders and Pitch your Green Idea! PATA, responsible for driving education – Policy Recommendations.) some of the largest M&A transactions and priva- strategic relationships with in- tisations in the region. Jernej Hočevar ternational institutions and private companies. She Emilija Stojmenova Duh Member of the Mebius team is also responsible for coordinating European (See Digitalization for boosting youth sector and Sebastian Shehadi since its founding in 2008. Has PATA chapters, recruiting and retaining members, education – Policy Recommendations.) Global markets reporter for fDi worked on many facets of a coordinating key events (including the PATA Ad- Magazine, a specialist publica- start-up company from a busi- vocacy dinner), and securing sponsorship. Yossi Vardi tion from the Financial Times ness side, such as general administration, business (See Start:up Slovenia Meet-up with Yossi Vardi.) that focuses on global foreign communication and representation, pitching, as Eva Štravs Podlogar investment. Prior to joining fDi, he was a political well as website design and deployment. On the She holds a university degree in Pika Šarf risk analyst at Citibank, London. He grew up in technical side, my knowledge includes catalyst Economics. Owing to her wide She graduated from the Faculty London and Beirut, where he learnt French and ink formulation, gas-diffusion electrode prepara- experience in tourism, in Sep- of Law, University of Ljubljana Arabic. He earned his MSc at the London School tion and manufacture, MEA assembly, and indus- tember 2016, the Government and is a junior research fellow of Economics, reading History of International trial ink-jet printer operation. appointed her State Secretary of the Ministry of at the Institute of Criminology Relations. Economic Development and Technology; follow- at her alma mater, interested in questions of law Jaromir Dzialo ing the inauguration of the new Government, she and technology; her research focuses on human IT Architect.Winner of Found- was in October 2018 again appointed State Secre- rights implications of artificial intelligence and A Climate-Neutral Smart Economy – er Showcase, Seedcamp, cov- tary. big data. Greentech0 ered by TechCrunch, Mashable, attracted funding from e.g. Andrew Agius Muscat Saša Bavec Aaron Patzer, was acquired by social network in Entrepreneur, currently Secre- Invest Talk Slovenia 3.0: Trends and Group Marketing Director and US: Tagged. com (330+ mln of users). In the IT tary General of Mediterranean Challenges of Global FDI: A Threat or an Member of the Executive Man- since 1994: founder of 3 successful startups, IT for Tourism Foundation and CEO Opportunity? agement Committee of Knauf Swiss banking domain, content distribution for of Malta Hotels and Restau- Insulation. He also manages 95% cinemas in Switzerland, 100+ web services. rants Association. His previous positions includ- Zdravko Počivalšek the Systems Division, the business unit selling UI/UX evangelist with passion for ergonomy, us- ed consultant within the Office of the Prime (See Tourism for All Destinations: Dispersal over insulation to industrial customers. Previously he ability and communication. Co-author of a se- Minister of Malta and Chairman at the Public Place and Time.) was Marketing Director EUMEA in the pharma- mantic analysis patent and an open-source com- Broadcasting Services Ltd, policy consultant to ceutical company Sandoz and Assisstant Profes- mitter. Seasoned CTO, Product Manager, various Ministries and adviser to the World Bank James Zhan sor of Intellectual Property at the Biotechnical Software Engineering Manager, IT consultant. and the European Parliament. N/A Faculty in Ljubljana.

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