Investigating Cognitive Bias
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University of Huddersfield Repository Hopps, Bethany Investigating Cognitive Bias: Does the status of a homicide or sexual offence investigation (live, cold or historic) effect the cognitive decision making of the investigating officer? Original Citation Hopps, Bethany (2019) Investigating Cognitive Bias: Does the status of a homicide or sexual offence investigation (live, cold or historic) effect the cognitive decision making of the investigating officer? Masters thesis, University of Huddersfield. This version is available at http://eprints.hud.ac.uk/id/eprint/34953/ The University Repository is a digital collection of the research output of the University, available on Open Access. Copyright and Moral Rights for the items on this site are retained by the individual author and/or other copyright owners. 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For more information, including our policy and submission procedure, please contact the Repository Team at: [email protected]. http://eprints.hud.ac.uk/ Investigating Cognitive Bias: Does the status of a homicide or sexual offence investigation (live, cold or historic) effect the cognitive decision making of the investigating officer Bethany Hopps U1264148 A thesis submitted to the University of Huddersfield in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science by Research (Human and Health) The University of Huddersfield April 2019 1 Acknowledgements I would like to thank the co-operation of one of the UKs police forces for being supportive of my research and the time the investigators took out of their day for me to be able to interview them. I would also like to thank my supervisor Dr Jason Roach for all his help and support throughout my research. I would also like to offer a special thank you to my friend Ayema Akbar whom went out of her way to help and support me through this research; I definitely couldn’t have done it without her. 2 Contents Acknowledgements …………………………………………………………………………..................... Page 2 Contents ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… Page 3 Abstract ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. Page 4 Prologue ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. Page 5 Introduction of the Thesis ……………………………………………………………………………………. Page 6 Literature Review ………………………………………………………………………………………………… Page 8 Methodology ………………………………………………………………………………………………………. Page 23 Findings ………………..…….………………………………………………………………………………………. Page 31 Discussion .………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. Page 48 Conclusion ………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. Page 55 References ………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. Page 57 Appendices …………………………………………………………………………………………………………. Page 68 3 Abstract There is vast amounts of research which investigates the decision making process of investigating officers in homicide investigations. Little is known about the decisions made whilst investigating sexual offences and little is known regarding whether these decisions differ if the officer is investigating a cold homicide/sexual offence or a historic homicide/sexual offence. The current research aims to bridge the gap in research regarding decision making and cognitive bias dependent of the status of the criminal case. It is not a comparison of offence type and was not concerned with exploring the differences between types of crimes. Seven police investigators working on a cold case review team for one of the UK’s police forces were interviewed regarding the decisions they make. The team is roughly split into two sides and the officers specifically investigate either homicide or sexual offences that have not been solved at the time interviews occurred. Although the officers provided mixed views, the research found that there is a difference between cold and historic homicide/sexual offence cases with a definition obtained. However, ‘cold’ as a terminology caused unsettlement with the officers. The research also found that cognitive bias and the framing effect do have an effect on the decisions made by investigators. However, the effect the frame has was different to what was originally hypothesised. Other impacting factors on decision making were also discovered and discussed. Implications on UK policing are considered and the limitations of this research are considered. Recommendations for further research are offered. 4 Prologue The work that the police do I feel is always something the public are interested in. There are not many jobs that are heavily in the media and criticized more often than praised. Having worked in the policing organisation myself for 2 years, I felt it was important for the lay person to understand what these investigators are facing on a daily basis. I also felt, having studied Psychology for 3 years, that as an organisation, they need to be more open and conscious about their own thought processes and what effect things could have on the decisions they make. I have always had a great interest in police detection and if I could help officers be more confident in their investigative work by being aware of possible impacting factors, then this research is worthwhile. I believe officers, especially in the current climate with government cuts, could benefit from more training and on-going training with more focus on cognition so they have an understanding of how their brains are processing information in order to make these difficult decisions during an investigation. If they are made aware of the possible biases, then it is more likely they will notice if their decisions become impacted. 5 Introduction of the Thesis This current research aims to bridge the gap between existing research in regards to decision making in police homicide/sexual offence investigations and whether the decisions made, differ depending of the status of the case (live, cold or historic). Research of decision making with regards to homicides and sexual offences will be discussed separately and any differences that arise, will too be discussed however this was not a focus of this research. Due to the timeframe the research was conducted in, it would be difficult to draw comparisons against the offence type as well as the case status. Therefore, the working hypothesis for this research is that police investigators follow the same decision making process regardless to the offence type. The existing research mainly focuses on live criminal investigations, with minimal research focused on cold case investigations and virtually no research at all focused on historic criminal investigations. It has proved difficult to source agreed definitions of what makes a live case, a cold case or a historic case. The following working definitions have been proposed for the purposes of the research with a view to provide firm definitions: Case Type Working Definition Live Involves identifying, collecting and using information/evidence in order to bring perpetrators to justice (Stelfox 2013). Cold Any case in which all investigative leads have been exhausted; a police inquiry that has been suspended with the crime still unsolved (Collins English Dictionary, 2018) Historic Historic crime is something which is “non-recent” however no time scale is suggested but the National Institute of Justice (2008) states “historic” is just another term for a “cold” outside the USA. The current research has two main research aims with specific objectives within: 1) To explore decision making within the different case types (live, historic and cold). Using the existing working definitions of the case types, the research will probe any differences in decision making in relation to the type of case (live, historic and cold). To provide definitions using the views of individuals whom have an extensive policing background and have personal experience in investigating all three case types in their career. 2) To examine any cognitive bias across the different case types (live, historic and cold). Analyse the types of bias that may affect decision making in an investigation and whether certain biases affect a certain type of case. 6 Explore whether the prevalence of the framing effect varies by case type. Explore if the investigating officer have their decisions framed in relation to a cold case simply by knowing a competent detective couldn’t solve previous to them suggesting they may accept defeat before even looking at the case. Research Rationale Answering the above research aims would benefit those individuals that investigate crime; at this moment in time, the investigative manuals available to the police force are focused on live investigations. This research will allow for more reliable investigation aids to be produced dependant on the type of case being investigated. Making officers aware of the possible biases which may specifically affect them dependent on what type of case they are working on, will assist them in recognising the potential negative and preventing it from affecting the case. In most recent years, due to the budget cuts that the police force has faced, there has been an increase in civilian criminal investigators in order to free up more police officers