SOUTH ASIA TRENDSSOUTHSOUTH ASIAASIA TRENDSTRENDS Vol 1 No 9 August 15-31, 2010

SOUTH ASIA TRENDSSOUTHSOUTH ASIAASIA TRENDSTRENDS Vol 1 No 9 August 15-31, 2010 Volume 1 Number 9 August 15-31, 2010 South Asia Trends is a fortnightly newsletter on South Asian affairs. The purpose of the newsletter is to provide a panoramic view of important events that shape and impact the politics of the subcontinent. The effort would be to inform our readers of the domestic, regional and international repercussions of the political debates and diplomatic engagements that take place in South Asia. Compiled & Edited by Medha Bisht Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses SOUTH ASIA TRENDS Vol 1 No 9 August 15-31, 2010 Editor’s Note Synchronising the “Washington Clock” with the July 2011 deadline of troop withdrawal is perhaps the most imminent task ahead for the Obama administration to cope with. The MNBC interview of August 15, 2010, the first with General Petreaus since he shouldered the responsibility in Afghanistan, brings out the nuances of the much talked about changed strategy of the General vis a vis his previous counterpart Stanley Mc Chrystal . While contradictory signals continue to flood the public space about the July 2011 deadline from Biden, Gates and Petreaus, it has been seemingly made clear that troop withdrawal will be conditioned on the situation on ground and that the July deadline is symbolic of the urgency of the mounting pressures from the domestic front and from the US allies. According to one news report in this edition, emphasis in the coming months would be on shifting troops in order to train Afghan security forces so that the takeover phase by local Afghan soldiers and police officers can be smooth post the U.S. withdrawal. It has also been decided that foreign troops move into areas where militants remain active, particularly South Afghanistan. Mean- while Hamid Karzai has ‘publicly’ communicated that United States and its NATO allies should shift their military focus to insurgent hideouts, particularly the sanctuaries on the Pakistani side of the border. Interestingly, United States for quite some time has been persuading Pakistan to take action in North Waziristan!! Meanwhile a new momentum to challenge Bhutan’s democratic efforts is gathering pace as the exiled refugee leaders have formed a joint front under the leadership of R.K. Dorji, the founder of Druk National Congress.. Major political parties –- Druk Na- tional Congress (DNC), Bhutan People’s Party (BPP) ,Bhutan National Democratic Party (BNDP) and Bhutanese Movement Steering Committee (BMSC) conducted a meeting on August 22, SOUTH ASIA TRENDS Vol 1 No 9 August 15-31, 2010 2010, and decided to form a united front under DNC. Given the much publicly expressed disappointment from two refugee leaders Dr. Bhampa Rai and Thinley Penjore, questions have already been raised on the credibility of the front. It can be said that fractious tendencies and alienation has already set in, and this could well weaken the advocacy efforts of the recently formed united front. SOUTH ASIA TRENDS Vol 1 No 9 August 15-31, 2010 Afghanistan Meet the Press transcript for General David Petraeus MSNBC.Com, August 15, 2010 Excerpts MR. DAVID GREGORY: We have come to Kabul at a critical moment of this war. Nine years into the conflict, President Obama has doubled down, surging U.S. forces in order to root the insurgency and help the government of Hamid Karzai, a government ripe with corruption, stand up on its own. The man behind this new strategy is General David Petraeus, the commander behind the successful surge in Iraq. Petraeus has taken over command of U.S. and coalition forces here after General Stan McChrystal was fired by President Obama for publicly airing his grievances with the war effort. General Petraeus is speaking out for the first time, and exclusively to us, about all of the big issues in this conflict—the public’s frustration with the war, the strength of the Taliban, the government of Hamid Karzai here in Afghanistan, the expected leaking of new secret war documents on the Internet, and whether President Obama’s July of 2011 withdrawal timeline will hold.At the heart of his challenge is the question we will explore in this special hour: Is nation building possible in the badlands of Afghanistan? GEN. PETRAEUS: At the end of the day, it’s not about their embrace of us, it’s not about us winning hearts and minds, it’s about the Afghan government winning hearts and minds. This isn’t to say that there is any kind of objective of turning Afghanistan into Switzerland in three to five years or less. Afghan good enough is good enough, and that means having traditional social organizing structures as part of the ultimate solution, if you will, where tribal shura councils and so forth— which are quite democratic, by the way—they then connect at the district or province level with what goes up to Kabul and, and, and comes out as well. The detailed interview can be found at: (Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38686033/ns/meet_the_press-transcripts) Gates, Petraeus Differ on Flexibility of Afghan Exit Voice of America, August 16, 2010. U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has told a major U.S. newspaper, the July 2011 date to start withdrawing American troops from Afghanistan is set in stone, putting him at odds with his top Afghan war commander, General David Petraeus. While both men agree on the need for a gradual withdrawal, they do not agree on the flexibility of the start date given last year by President Barack Obama. Gates told the Los Angeles Times (August 16,2010) edition “there is no question in anybody’s mind that we are going to begin drawing down troops in July of 2011.” (Source: http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/Gates-Petraeus-Differ-on-Flexibility- of-Afghan-Exit-100750549.html) Osama probably hiding in mountainous regions of Pak: Petraeus Zee News, August 16, 2010 Al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden, the world’s most wanted terrorist, is probably SOUTH ASIA TRENDS Vol 1 No 9 August 15-31, 2010 hiding in the remote mountainous regions of Pakistan, but no one knows where he actually is, a top US General has said. “I think he remains an iconic figure, and I think capturing or killing Osama bin Laden is still a very, very important task for all of those who are engaged in counter terrorism around the world,” General David Petraeus Commander of US-led NATO forces in Afghanistan told NBC television’s ‘Meet the Press’ when asked about the Osama’s whereabouts. In the interview, that was recorded in Kabul on Friday and aired in the US on Sunday, Petraeus said that there is unlikely to be any possibility of peace talks with Mullah Omar - the Taliban leader. “But (there is) every possibility, that there can be low and mid-level reintegration and, indeed, some fracturing of the senior leadership that could be really defined as reconciliation,” he said in response to a question. (Source: http://www.zeenews.com/news648571.html) Karzai to Replace ‘Private Security Firms’ with Local Security Forces Daily Outlook Afghanistan, August 17, 2010 Afghan President Hamid Karzai wants to scrap private security firms, who work mainly for Western companies and are not accountable locally, and replace them with local security forces. “Dissolving the private security companies is a serious program that the government of Afghanistan will execute,” the BBC quoted Waheed Omer, a spokesman for President Karzai, as saying. “Very soon, the president of Afghanistan will set a deadline,” he added. Among those who use private security contractors in Afghanistan is the US government. Earlier, the Afghan government had tried unsuccessfully to register them and find out details of their weaponry and their earnings. Omer also informed that Karzai had discussed the issue with commanders of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and developed a plan for Afghan security forces to absorb the work done by the private security firms. Earlier, Karzai had said that the government “could no longer tolerate the existence of such parallel structures... whether they are owned by foreigners or Afghans”. He added that people do not trust these companies and believe their existence is against Afghanistan’s national interests. (Source: http://outlookafghanistan.net/index1.html#) Karzai Seeks German Investment in Mines Daily Outlook Afghanistan, August 30, 2010. President Hamid Karzai has called on the German government to further invest in the Afghan mines, the worth of which has been estimated at $3 trillion to $4 trillion. At a meeting with the speaker of German parliament, Norbert Lammert, at the Presidential Palace here on Sunday, Karzai asked the visiting dignitary to convince investors of his country for the investment on extraction of mines and other minerals in Afghanistan. Karzai’s call comes as Afghanistan recently dis- covered an oilfield with an estimated 1.8 billion barrels in the north. The worth of mineral deposits in Afghanistan is estimated at $3 trillion to $4 trillion, with the government hoping to utilize it for building economy and development. The government has sought help from foreign countries to extract the mines. A statement issued from the presidential palace said Karzai reiterated his call for a review of SOUTH ASIA TRENDS Vol 1 No 9 August 15-31, 2010 the Afghan war strategy during his meeting with Lammert, who along with Ger- man defense minister took part in ceremonies paying tribute to fallen German soldiers in northern Kunduz province. The defence minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg visited a combat zone in the province on Sunday. Karzai said the ex- perience of last eight years showed the war in remote areas and villages was not effective, instead it resulted in civilian casualties.

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