Seismicity Acceleration Model and Its Application to Several Earthquake
Vol.12 No.1 (35~45) ACTA SEISMOLOGICA SINICA Jan., 1999 Seismicity acceleration model and its applica- tion to several earthquake regions in China WEN-ZHENG YANG (~ ~i~) LI MA (~ ~) Center for Analysis and Prediction, China Seismological Bureau, Beijing i 00036, China Abstract With the theory of subcritical crack growth, we can deduce the fundamental equation of regional seismicity accel- eration model. Applying this model to intraptate earthquake regions, we select three earthquake subplates: North China Subplate, Chuan-Dian Block and Xinjiang Subplate, and divide the three subplates into seven researched regions by the difference of seismicity and tectonic conditions. With the modified equation given by Somette and Sammis (1995), we analysis the seismicity of each region. To those strong earthquakes already occurred in these region, the model can give close fitting of magnitude and occurrence time, and the result in this article indicates that the seismicity acceleration model can also be used for describing the seismicity of intraplate. In the article, we give the magnitude and occurrence time of possible strong earthquakes in Shanxi, Ordos, Bole-Tuokexun, Ayinke- Wuqia earthquake regions. In the same subplate or block, the earthquake periods for each earthquake region are similar in time interval. The constant a in model can be used to describe the intensity of regional seismicity, and for the Chinese Mainland, a is 0.4 generally. To the seismicity in Taiwan and other regions with complex tectonic conditions, the model does not fit well at present. Key words: seismicity acceleration model subcritical crack growth China earthquake region fit Introduction Before the occurrence of a strong regional earthquake, the seismicity in the region is com- monly changed from weak to strong, this phenomenon bespeaks the process of energy release in the region.
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