The Information Content of Galaxy Surveys

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

The Information Content of Galaxy Surveys DISS. ETH NO. 20642 The information content of galaxy surveys A dissertation submitted to ETH ZURICH for the degree of Doctor of Sciences presented by Julien Carron MSc ETH in Physics born on Dec 26th, 1985 citizen of Sion accepted on the recommendation of Prof. Dr. Simon Lilly, examiner Dr. Adam Amara, co-examiner arXiv:1406.6095v1 [astro-ph.CO] 23 Jun 2014 Prof. Dr. Luca Amendola, co-examiner 2012 Contents Contents vi List of Figures viii List of Tables ix Abstract xi R´esum´e xiii 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Stochasticity in cosmological observables . .2 1.2 Fisher information for cosmology : a first look . .3 1.3 N-point functions . .6 1.3.1 N-point functions from the density : characteristic functional . .6 1.3.2 The density from N-point functions : determinacy of the moment problem . .9 1.3.3 N-point functions from discrete populations, poisson samples . .9 1.4 Gaussian and non-Gaussian matter density fields . 11 iii CONTENTS 1.5 Structure of the thesis . 15 I Quantifying information 17 2 Shannon entropy and Fisher information 19 2.1 Fisher information and the information inequality . 20 2.1.1 The case of a single observable . 21 2.1.2 The general case . 23 2.1.3 Resolving the density function: Fisher information density . 24 2.2 Jaynes Maximal Entropy Principle . 26 2.2.1 Information in maximal entropy distributions . 29 2.2.2 Redundant observables . 31 2.2.3 The entropy and Fisher information content of Gaussian homoge- neous fields . 32 2.3 Appendix . 36 2.3.1 Measures of information on a parameter . 36 2.3.2 Cram´er-Raobound and maximal entropy distributions . 39 3 Information within N-point moments 43 3.1 One variable . 44 3.1.1 The Christoffel-Darboux kernel as information on the density itself . 47 3.2 Several variables . 48 3.2.1 Independent variables and uncorrelated fiducial . 50 3.2.2 On the impact of noise . 51 3.2.3 Poissonian discreteness effects . 53 3.3 Some exactly solvable models for moment determinate densities . 53 3.3.1 Moment indeterminate densities . 60 iv CONTENTS 3.4 Appendix . 66 3.4.1 Derivation for the beta family . 66 3.4.2 General hierarchical systems, recursion relations. 70 II Applications for cosmology 73 4 On the combination of shears, magnification and flexion fields 75 4.1 Introduction . 75 4.2 Linear tracers . 76 4.2.1 Linear tracers at the two-point level . 79 4.2.2 Joint entropy and information content . 79 4.2.3 Weak lensing probes . 81 4.3 Results . 83 4.4 Appendix . 86 5 On the use of Gaussian likelihoods for power spectra estimators 91 5.1 Introduction . 91 5.2 One field, gamma distribution . 92 5.3 Several fields, Wishart distribution . 95 5.4 Summary and conclusions . 98 6 N-point functions in lognormal density fields 101 6.1 Introduction . 101 6.1.1 Notation and conventions . 103 6.1.2 Definition and basic properties of correlated lognormal variables . 103 6.2 Fundamental limitations of the lognormal assumption . 104 6.2.1 Largest scales . 105 v CONTENTS 6.2.2 Smallest scales . 106 6.3 Explicit fields with the same hierarchy of N-point functions . 108 6.3.1 The problem with tailed fields . 108 6.3.2 Continuous family . 111 6.3.3 Discrete family . 113 6.3.4 Appendix . 114 6.4 Information at all orders for the one dimensional distribution . 115 6.4.1 Lack of information in the moments . 118 6.4.2 A q-analog of the logarithm . 119 6.4.3 Comparison to standard perturbation theory . 122 6.4.4 Appendix . 123 6.5 Connection to N-body simulations . 126 6.6 Information at all orders for uncorrelated fiducial . 130 6.6.1 Cumulative efficiencies . 132 6.6.2 Impact of discreteness effects . 133 6.6.3 The reason for a roughly parameter independent factor of improve- ment ................................... 137 6.7 The general case : a difficult Lagrange interpolation problem . 139 7 Information escaping the correlation hierarchy of the convergence field141 7.1 Introduction . 141 7.2 Fisher information coefficients . 143 7.3 Restoration of the information . 146 7.4 Conclusions . 147 Summary of main results and outlook 149 Bibliography 162 vi List of Figures 1.1 The shape of the one-point distribution function of the matter density fluc- tuation field according to second order perturbation theory. 12 1.2 Evolution of the matter density field distribution with cosmic time in a N-body simulation. Image courtesy of A. Pillepich . 14 3.1 The cumulative efficiencies of the moments of the lognormal distribution to capture its information content . 62 3.2 The cumulative efficiencies of the moments of the Weibull distribution to capture its information content . 64 3.3 The cumulative efficiencies of the moments of the stretched exponential function to capture its information content . 65 4.1 The ratio of the effective noise when including flexion and magnification fields to the level of noise considering the shears only, as a function of the angular scale. 84 4.2 The increase of the dark energy FOM including size information as well as flexion information, over the shear only analysis, as a function of the maximal angular multipole. 87 6.1 The one dimensional chain of points used to test the positivity of the spec- trum of the A field, and the apparition modes with negative spectrum on small scales, indicating that the lognormal field is no longer a well defined assumption for a ΛCDM cosmology. 106 6.2 Three density functions with the same moments as those of the lognormal distribution at all orders. 112 vii LIST OF FIGURES 6.3 The fraction of the total information content that is accessible through the extraction of the entire series of moments of the lognormal field, as function of the square root of the variance of the fluctuations. 120 6.4 Distribution of the information within the moments of the lognormal dis- tribution . 120 6.5 The information density of the lognormal distribution and its approximation through the associated orthonormal polynomials, for fluctuations of unit variance . 121 6.6 Comparison of the information content of the first moments of the fluctua- tion field between standard perturbation theory and the lognormal model . 124 6.7 Comparison of various estimates of the error bar on the linear power spec- trum amplitude, constrained using the power spectra of the overdensity field or of the log-density field in an N-body simulation. 127 6.8 The fraction of the total information content that is accessible through extraction of the full series of N-point moments of the lognormal field for an uncorrelated fiducial model, for a parameter entering the two-point function at non zero lag, but not the variance. 133 6.9 Discreteness effects destroying the information contained in the underdense regions of the lognormal distribution . 135 6.10 The information content of the first N-point moments in a Poisson sample of a lognormal field, as function of the mean number of objects per cell, normalised to the information content of the lognormal field. 136 6.11 Ratios measuring the sensibility of the spectrum to that of the variance for different cosmological parameters . 138 7.1 The three parameters entering the generalized lognormal model, as function of the variance of the effective matter density fluctuations . 144 7.2 The cumulative efficiencies of the moments of the convergence in capturing Fisher information as function of the variance of the effective matter density fluctuations. 146 7.3 The efficiency N=10 of the first 10 moments to capture Fisher information, for the convergence field and lognormal field, as well as for the logarithmic transform of the convergence field. 147 7.4 The Fisher information density of the lognormal and the convergence field. 148 7.5 The cumulative information on the amplitude of the spectrum within either the spectrum or two-point function of the one dimensional lognormal field. 151 viii List of Tables 4.1 Dispersion parameters for the shear, flexion and magnification fields used in our numerical analysis. 83 4.2 Ratio of the marginalised constraints considering size information as well as flexion to that of shear only analysis. 86 6.1 The factors of improvements in constraining power of the spectrum of the log-density field in the lognormal model and as seen in simulations . 130 ix LIST OF TABLES x Abstract This research is a contribution to our understanding of the information content of the cos- mological dark matter density field, and of the means to extract this information. These questions are of prime importance in order to reach closer for solutions to current funda- mental issues in cosmology, such as the nature of dark matter and dark energy, that future large galaxy surveys are aiming at. The focus is on a traditional class of observables, the N-point functions, that we approach with known information theoretic tools, Fisher in- formation and Shannon information entropy. It is built out of two main parts, the first presenting in details the mathematical methods we used and introduced, and the second the cosmological research that was performed with these tools. A large fraction of this thesis is dedicated to the study of the information content of random fields with heavy tails, in particular the lognormal field, a model for the matter density fluctuation field. It is well known that in the nonlinear regime of structure for- mation, the matter fluctuation field develops such large tails. It has also been suggested that fields with large tails are not necessarily well described by the hierarchy of N-point functions.
Recommended publications
  • Information Content and Error Analysis
    43 INFORMATION CONTENT AND ERROR ANALYSIS Clive D Rodgers Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics University of Oxford ESA Advanced Atmospheric Training Course September 15th – 20th, 2008 44 INFORMATION CONTENT OF A MEASUREMENT Information in a general qualitative sense: Conceptually, what does y tell you about x? We need to answer this to determine if a conceptual instrument design actually works • to optimise designs • Use the linear problem for simplicity to illustrate the ideas. y = Kx + ! 45 SHANNON INFORMATION The Shannon information content of a measurement of x is the change in the entropy of the • probability density function describing our knowledge of x. Entropy is defined by: • S P = P (x) log(P (x)/M (x))dx { } − Z M(x) is a measure function. We will take it to be constant. Compare this with the statistical mechanics definition of entropy: • S = k p ln p − i i i X P (x)dx corresponds to pi. 1/M (x) is a kind of scale for dx. The Shannon information content of a measurement is the change in entropy between the p.d.f. • before, P (x), and the p.d.f. after, P (x y), the measurement: | H = S P (x) S P (x y) { }− { | } What does this all mean? 46 ENTROPY OF A BOXCAR PDF Consider a uniform p.d.f in one dimension, constant in (0,a): P (x)=1/a 0 <x<a and zero outside.The entropy is given by a 1 1 S = ln dx = ln a − a a Z0 „ « Similarly, the entropy of any constant pdf in a finite volume V of arbitrary shape is: 1 1 S = ln dv = ln V − V V ZV „ « i.e the entropy is the log of the volume of state space occupied by the p.d.f.
    [Show full text]
  • Chapter 4 Information Theory
    Chapter Information Theory Intro duction This lecture covers entropy joint entropy mutual information and minimum descrip tion length See the texts by Cover and Mackay for a more comprehensive treatment Measures of Information Information on a computer is represented by binary bit strings Decimal numb ers can b e represented using the following enco ding The p osition of the binary digit 3 2 1 0 Bit Bit Bit Bit Decimal Table Binary encoding indicates its decimal equivalent such that if there are N bits the ith bit represents N i the decimal numb er Bit is referred to as the most signicant bit and bit N as the least signicant bit To enco de M dierent messages requires log M bits 2 Signal Pro cessing Course WD Penny April Entropy The table b elow shows the probability of o ccurrence px to two decimal places of i selected letters x in the English alphab et These statistics were taken from Mackays i b o ok on Information Theory The table also shows the information content of a x px hx i i i a e j q t z Table Probability and Information content of letters letter hx log i px i which is a measure of surprise if we had to guess what a randomly chosen letter of the English alphab et was going to b e wed say it was an A E T or other frequently o ccuring letter If it turned out to b e a Z wed b e surprised The letter E is so common that it is unusual to nd a sentence without one An exception is the page novel Gadsby by Ernest Vincent Wright in which
    [Show full text]
  • Shannon Entropy and Kolmogorov Complexity
    Information and Computation: Shannon Entropy and Kolmogorov Complexity Satyadev Nandakumar Department of Computer Science. IIT Kanpur October 19, 2016 This measures the average uncertainty of X in terms of the number of bits. Shannon Entropy Definition Let X be a random variable taking finitely many values, and P be its probability distribution. The Shannon Entropy of X is X 1 H(X ) = p(i) log : 2 p(i) i2X Shannon Entropy Definition Let X be a random variable taking finitely many values, and P be its probability distribution. The Shannon Entropy of X is X 1 H(X ) = p(i) log : 2 p(i) i2X This measures the average uncertainty of X in terms of the number of bits. The Triad Figure: Claude Shannon Figure: A. N. Kolmogorov Figure: Alan Turing Just Electrical Engineering \Shannon's contribution to pure mathematics was denied immediate recognition. I can recall now that even at the International Mathematical Congress, Amsterdam, 1954, my American colleagues in probability seemed rather doubtful about my allegedly exaggerated interest in Shannon's work, as they believed it consisted more of techniques than of mathematics itself. However, Shannon did not provide rigorous mathematical justification of the complicated cases and left it all to his followers. Still his mathematical intuition is amazingly correct." A. N. Kolmogorov, as quoted in [Shi89]. Kolmogorov and Entropy Kolmogorov's later work was fundamentally influenced by Shannon's. 1 Foundations: Kolmogorov Complexity - using the theory of algorithms to give a combinatorial interpretation of Shannon Entropy. 2 Analogy: Kolmogorov-Sinai Entropy, the only finitely-observable isomorphism-invariant property of dynamical systems.
    [Show full text]
  • Understanding Shannon's Entropy Metric for Information
    Understanding Shannon's Entropy metric for Information Sriram Vajapeyam [email protected] 24 March 2014 1. Overview Shannon's metric of "Entropy" of information is a foundational concept of information theory [1, 2]. Here is an intuitive way of understanding, remembering, and/or reconstructing Shannon's Entropy metric for information. Conceptually, information can be thought of as being stored in or transmitted as variables that can take on different values. A variable can be thought of as a unit of storage that can take on, at different times, one of several different specified values, following some process for taking on those values. Informally, we get information from a variable by looking at its value, just as we get information from an email by reading its contents. In the case of the variable, the information is about the process behind the variable. The entropy of a variable is the "amount of information" contained in the variable. This amount is determined not just by the number of different values the variable can take on, just as the information in an email is quantified not just by the number of words in the email or the different possible words in the language of the email. Informally, the amount of information in an email is proportional to the amount of “surprise” its reading causes. For example, if an email is simply a repeat of an earlier email, then it is not informative at all. On the other hand, if say the email reveals the outcome of a cliff-hanger election, then it is highly informative.
    [Show full text]
  • Information, Entropy, and the Motivation for Source Codes
    MIT 6.02 DRAFT Lecture Notes Last update: September 13, 2012 CHAPTER 2 Information, Entropy, and the Motivation for Source Codes The theory of information developed by Claude Shannon (MIT SM ’37 & PhD ’40) in the late 1940s is one of the most impactful ideas of the past century, and has changed the theory and practice of many fields of technology. The development of communication systems and networks has benefited greatly from Shannon’s work. In this chapter, we will first develop the intution behind information and formally define it as a mathematical quantity, then connect it to a related property of data sources, entropy. These notions guide us to efficiently compress a data source before communicating (or storing) it, and recovering the original data without distortion at the receiver. A key under­ lying idea here is coding, or more precisely, source coding, which takes each “symbol” being produced by any source of data and associates it with a codeword, while achieving several desirable properties. (A message may be thought of as a sequence of symbols in some al­ phabet.) This mapping between input symbols and codewords is called a code. Our focus will be on lossless source coding techniques, where the recipient of any uncorrupted mes­ sage can recover the original message exactly (we deal with corrupted messages in later chapters). ⌅ 2.1 Information and Entropy One of Shannon’s brilliant insights, building on earlier work by Hartley, was to realize that regardless of the application and the semantics of the messages involved, a general definition of information is possible.
    [Show full text]
  • Entropy in Classical and Quantum Information Theory
    Entropy in Classical and Quantum Information Theory William Fedus Physics Department, University of California, San Diego. Entropy is a central concept in both classical and quantum information theory, measuring the uncertainty and the information content in the state of a physical system. This paper reviews classical information theory and then proceeds to generalizations into quantum information theory. Both Shannon and Von Neumann entropy are discussed, making the connection to compressibility of a message stream and the generalization of compressibility in a quantum system. Finally, the paper considers the application of Von Neumann entropy in entanglement of formation for both pure and mixed bipartite quantum states. CLASSICAL INFORMATION THEORY information. For instance, if we use a block code which assigns integers to typical sequences, the information in In statistical mechanics, entropy is the logarithm of a string of n letters can be compressed to H(A) bits. the number of arrangements a system can be configured With this framework and definition, we may now con- and still remain consistent with the thermodyanmic ob- sider the maximum compression of a length n message servables. From this original formulation, entropy has without loss of information. The number of bits neces- grown to become an important element in many diverse sary to transmit the message is given by fields of study. One of the first examples was in 1948 when Claude Shannon adopted entropy as a measure of the uncertainty in a random variable, or equivalently, the H(An) = nH(A): (2) expected value of information content within a message. Classical information theory, as established by Claude Shannon, sought to resolve two central issues in signal which simply states that one needs (n times the entropy processing of the ensemeble A)-bits.
    [Show full text]
  • An Introduction to Information Theory and Entropy
    An introduction to information theory and entropy Tom Carter CSU Stanislaus http://astarte.csustan.edu/~ tom/SFI-CSSS [email protected] Complex Systems Summer School Santa Fe March 14, 2014 1 Contents . Measuring complexity 5 . Some probability ideas 9 . Basics of information theory 15 . Some entropy theory 22 . The Gibbs inequality 28 . A simple physical example (gases) 36 . Shannon's communication theory 47 . Application to Biology (genomes) 63 . Some other measures 79 . Some additional material . Examples using Bayes' Theorem 87 . Analog channels 103 . A Maximum Entropy Principle 108 . Application: Economics I 111 . Application: Economics II 117 . Application to Physics (lasers) 124 . Kullback-Leibler information measure 129 . References 135 2 The quotes } Science, wisdom, and counting } Being different { or random } Surprise, information, and miracles } Information (and hope) } H (or S) for Entropy } Thermodynamics } Language, and putting things together } Tools To topics 3 Science, wisdom, and counting \Science is organized knowledge. Wisdom is organized life." - Immanuel Kant \My own suspicion is that the universe is not only stranger than we suppose, but stranger than we can suppose." - John Haldane \Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted." - Albert Einstein (1879-1955) \The laws of probability, so true in general, so fallacious in particular ." - Edward Gibbon 4 Measuring complexity • Workers in the field of complexity face a classic problem: how can we tell that the system we are looking at is actually a complex system? (i.e., should we even be studying this system? :-) Of course, in practice, we will study the systems that interest us, for whatever reasons, so the problem identified above tends not to be a real problem.
    [Show full text]
  • Introduction to Information Theory
    Introduction to Information Theory Entropy as a Measure of Information Content Entropy of a random variable. Let X be a random variable that takes on values from its domain P fx1; x2; : : : ; xng with respective probabilities p1; p2; : : : ; pn, where i pi = 1. Then the entropy of X, H(X), represents the average amount of information contained in X and is defined by n X H(X) = − pi log2 pi: i=1 Note that entropy is measured in bits. Also, Hn(p1; : : : ; pn) denotes another way of writing the entropy function. Arguments in favor of the above definition of information: • The definition is consistent with the following extreme cases: 1 1. If n = 2 and p1 = p2 = 2 , then H(X) = 1 bit; i.e. when an event (e.g. X = x1) has an equally likely chance of occurring or not occurring, then its outcome possesses one bit of information. This is the maximum amount of information a binary outcome may possess. 2. In the case when pi = 1 for some 1 ≤ i ≤ n, then H(X) = 0; i.e. any random variable whose outcome is certain possesses no information. • Moreover, the above definition is the only definition which satisfies the following three properties of information which seem reasonable under any definition: 1 1 { Normalization: H2( 2 ; 2 ) = 1 { Continuity: H2(p; 1 − p) is a continuous function of p on the interval (0; 1) { Grouping: p1 p2 Hm(p1; : : : ; pm) = Hm−1(p1 + p2; p3; : : : ; pm) + (p1 + p2)H2( ; ) p1 + p2 p1 + p2 1 Claude Shannon (1912-2001). Pioneer in • applying Boolean logic to electronic circuit design • studying the complexity of Boolean circuits • signal processing: determined lower bounds on the amount of samples needed to achieve a desired estimation accuracy • game theory: inventor of minimax algorithm • information theory: first to give a precise definition for the concept of information • coding theory: Channel Coding Theorem, Optimal Coding Theorem 2 Example 1.
    [Show full text]
  • Exploring Deep Learning Using Information Theory Tools and Patch Ordering
    Unde r revie w as a conf er e nc e pape r at ICLR 2019 EXPLORING DEEP LEARNING USING INFORMATION THEORY TOOLS AND PATCH ORDERING Anony m o us author s Pape r unde r double -blin d revie w ABSTRACT We present a framework for automatically ordering image patches that enables in-depth analysis of dataset relationship to learnability of a classification task using convolutional neural network. An image patch is a grou p of pixels resid ing in a contin u ou s area contain e d in the sample . Our preliminary experimental results show that an informed smart shuffling of patches at a sample level can expedite training by exposing important features at early stages of training. In addition, we conduct systematic experiments and provide evidence that CNN’s generalization capabilities do not correlate with human recognizable features present in training samples. We utilized the framework not only to show that spatial locality of features within samples do not correlate with generalization, but also to expedite convergence while achieving similar generalization performance. Using multiple network architectures and datasets, we show that ordering image regions using mutual information measure between adjacent patches, enables CNNs to converge in a third of the total steps required to train the same network without patch ordering. 1 INTRODUCTION Adva nc e s in Deep Lear nin g (DL) and Convolutional Neura l Netw or ks (CNN ) have dramatically impro ve d the state- of-the - ar t in compu te r vision tasks. Many of these breakthroughs are attributed to the succe ssiv e featu re extrac tion and an increa sin g abstr a ct representation of the underly ing training dat a using multi- stag e simple oper ation s such as convolution.
    [Show full text]
  • Interpretable Convolution Methods for Learning Genomic Sequence Motifs
    bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/411934; this version posted September 8, 2018. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY-NC 4.0 International license. Interpretable Convolution Methods for Learning Genomic Sequence Motifs MS Ploenzke1*, RA Irizarry1,2 1 Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA 2 Department of Biostatistics and Computational Biology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA, USA * Corresponding author: ploenzke(at)g.harvard.edu Abstract The first-layer filters employed in convolutional neural networks tend to learn, or extract, spatial features from the data. Within their application to genomic sequence data, these learned features are often visualized and interpreted by converting them to sequence logos; an information-based representation of the consensus nucleotide motif. The process to obtain such motifs, however, is done through post-training procedures which often discard the filter weights themselves and instead rely upon finding those sequences maximally correlated with the given filter. Moreover, the filters collectively learn motifs with high redundancy, often simply shifted representations of the same sequence. We propose a schema to learn sequence motifs directly through weight constraints and transformations such that the individual weights comprising the filter are directly interpretable as either position weight matrices (PWMs) or information gain matrices (IGMs). We additionally leverage regularization to encourage learning highly-representative motifs with low inter-filter redundancy. Through learning PWMs and IGMs directly we present preliminary results showcasing how our method is capable of incorporating previously-annotated database motifs along with learning motifs de novo and then outline a pipeline for how these tools may be used jointly in a data application.
    [Show full text]
  • Lecture 1: August 29 1.1 About the Class
    10-704: Information Processing and Learning Fall 2016 Lecture 1: August 29 Lecturer: Aarti Singh Note: These notes are based on scribed notes from Spring15 offering of this course. LaTeX template courtesy of UC Berkeley EECS dept. Disclaimer: These notes have not been subjected to the usual scrutiny reserved for formal publications. They may be distributed outside this class only with the permission of the Instructor. 1.1 About the class This class focuses on information theory, signal processing, machine learning, and the connections between these fields. Both signal processing and machine learning are about how to extract useful information from signals and data, respectively. The distinction between these fields is vanishing nowadays, however it is still useful to point out some classic differences that still often serve as motivation for the respective fields. Classically signals in signal processing involve a temporal component and are usually transmitted over a channel, while data in machine learning is much more general (but we will see in this course how channels do arise in machine learning problems as well, and help characterize the fundamental limits of achievable error in machine learning problems). A more fundamental difference between signal processing and machine learning is that signals are often designed in the former or modeled using an understanding of the system physics. Such physics-driven models can enable inference i.e. answering related questions about the data generating system, whereas in ML, we do not have much control or understanding of the data generating distribution and the models are primarily used to make predictions. Information theory is a common thread that lays the foundations of signal processing and machine learning, helping us characterize the fundamental limits in these problems - number of bits needed to recover signals accurately and number of samples needed to learn models well.
    [Show full text]
  • Information Diffusion Prediction Via Recurrent Cascades Convolution
    2019 IEEE 35th International Conference on Data Engineering (ICDE) Information Diffusion Prediction via Recurrent Cascades Convolution Xueqin Chen∗, Fan Zhou∗†, Kunpeng Zhang‡, Goce Trajcevski§, Ting Zhong∗, Fengli Zhang∗ ∗School of Information and Software Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China ‡Department of Decision, Operations & Information Technologies, University of Maryland, college park MD §Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Iowa State University, Ames IA †Corresponding author: [email protected] Abstract—Effectively predicting the size of an information cas- for cascade prediction; (2) feature-based approaches – mostly cade is critical for many applications spanning from identifying focusing on identifying and incorporating complicated hand- viral marketing and fake news to precise recommendation and crafted features, e.g., structural [20]–[22], content [23]–[26], online advertising. Traditional approaches either heavily depend on underlying diffusion models and are not optimized for popu- temporal [27], [28], etc. Their performance strongly depends larity prediction, or use complicated hand-crafted features that on extracted features requiring extensive domain knowledge, cannot be easily generalized to different types of cascades. Recent which is hard to be generalized to new domains; (3) generative generative approaches allow for understanding the spreading approaches – typically relying on Hawkes point process [6], mechanisms, but with unsatisfactory prediction accuracy. [29],
    [Show full text]