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Virginia Commonwealth University VCU Scholars Compass Theses and Dissertations Graduate School 2006 Impact of Terrorism on Migration Patterns in Turkey Yilmaz Simsek Virginia Commonwealth University Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarscompass.vcu.edu/etd Part of the Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons © The Author Downloaded from https://scholarscompass.vcu.edu/etd/652 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at VCU Scholars Compass. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of VCU Scholars Compass. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Impact of Terrorism on Migration Patterns in Turkey A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at Virginia Commonwealth University. by Yilmaz Simsek B. A., Polis Akademisi, Ankara, 1995 M.S., University of North Texas, Denton, 2003 Director: Judyth Twigg, Ph.D. Professor L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs Virginia Commonwealth University Richmond, Virginia July, 2006 DEDICATION TO My son, Mehmet Bahadir Simsek, who has changed my understanding of life… ii Acknowledgments First, I would like to thank to the Turkish Nation and the Turkish National Police (TNP) for their support I received for this study. This dissertation would not have been possible without the financial support of my nation and the data support of the TNP. My thanks are extended to Muharrem Durmaz for his support of this study. It is also a pleasure to thank to and recognize my colleagues at Ankara Police Department and my brothers. They tirelessly worked hard to get the datasets of this study together. Next, I am grateful to Dr. Judyth Twigg, the chair of my dissertation committee, for her invaluable motivation and supervision in directing this study. She has provided a personal benchmark for the type of instructor that I would like to be one day. My grateful appreciations are extended to my other committee members for their time and assistance. Without the instructions and support of Dr. David P. Geary, Dr. Yasar A. Ozcan, Dr. Blue E. Wooldridge, and Dr. William W. Newmann, this dissertation effort would not have been possible. They always took time to help me with a study problem when I knocked on their doors. In addition, I would like to thank to all my instructors in the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at the Virginia Commonwealth University. They provided professional support during my education. Furthermore, I appreciate to my wife Hamiyet, my parents, and all my family members for their motivation, support, and tolerance. They passionately encouraged me to continue my education. I am also thankful to all my iii exceptional friends, brothers, and sisters. I also extent my thanks and gratitude to the members of TNP, especially to the members of 1995 Ankara Police Academy graduates, and to the instructors at Ankara Police Academy. Finally and foremost, I am indebted to God for giving this opportunity to me. iv Table of Contents Page Acknowledgement………………………………………………………………….…...ii List of Tables…………………………………………………………………………...viii List of Figures…………………………………………………………………………....x Abstract……….………………………………………………………………………….xi Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION……………………………………………………….............1 Problem Statement…………………………………………………………......3 Purpose of the Study……………………………………………………………6 Significance of the Study……………………………………………………….7 Definition of the Terms………………………………………………………….8 Terrorism…………………………………………………………………8 Migration………………………………………………………………..12 Theoretical Background…………………………………………….…………14 Migration in General: the Push-Pull Model…….……………………15 Migration in Specific: Motivational and Economical Perspectives..17 Theory of Motivation: Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs……………….18 Neo-classical Model …………………………………………………...23 Research Questions…………………………………………………………..25 Research Design………………………………………………………………27 Overview of Following Chapters……………………………………………..28 v 2 BACKGROUND INFORMATION…………………………………………….30 Overview of Politics in Northern Iraq…………………………………..........30 Turkey: Country & Region…………………………………………………….32 Conflict, Migration, and Kurdish Identity…………………………………….34 Kurdish Identity in General Elections………………………………………..36 Terrorism in the Region……………………………………………………….39 State of Emergency Rule (SER) …………………………………………….43 Conflict, Pressure, & Relocation Movements……………………………….44 Village Guards………………………………………………………………….47 Economy and Conflict in the Region………………………………..............49 3 LITERATURE REVIEW…………………………………………………….....55 Migration in Broad Perspective……………………………………....………58 Push and Pull Model in Literature……………………………………………60 Conflict, Violence & Migration………………………………………………..63 Selected Studies on Migration………………………………………………..66 Migration in Turkey…………………………………………………………….93 4 METHODOLOGY…………………………………………………...............103 Variables………………………………………………………………………105 Dependent variable…………………………………………………..106 Independent Variables……………………………………………….108 Control Variables …………………………………………………….109 Hypotheses………………………………………………………………...…111 vi Statistical technique………………………………………………………….119 Reliability and Validity………………………………………………………..122 Limitations…………………………………………………………………….123 5 FINDINGS…………………………………………………………………….126 Overview of Findings…………………………………………………..........126 Hypotheses Testing…………………………………………………............129 Differences in Net-Migration between Provinces…………………132 For all periods (92-01) ………………………………………133 For Period I (92-95) ………………………………………….133 For Period II (96-99) …………………………………………134 For Period III (00-01) ………………………………………..135 Net-Migration by Terrorist Incidents, Deaths, and GDP…….……135 For all periods (92-01)…………………….…………………142 For Period I (92-95) ………………………………………….151 For Period II (96-99) …………………………………………157 For Period III (00-01) ……………………………………..…164 Terrorist Incidents and Economic Variables………………………171 For all periods (92-01) ………………………………………174 For Period I (92-95) ………………………………………….175 For Period II (96-99) …………………………………………176 For Period III (00-01)…………………………………………177 Discussion of the Findings………………………………………….............180 vii 6 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION…………………………………..……….194 Summary of Findings and Conclusion……………………………………..195 Policy Recommendations of the Study Results…………………………..202 Suggestions for the Future Research………………………………….......205 References……………………………………………………………...…………….209 Appendices……………………………………………………………………………220 Vita……………………………………………………………………………………..270 viii List of Tables Page Table 1: 1991 General Election Vote Shares for Selected Parties……………….37 Table 2: 1995 General Election Vote Shares for Selected Parties……………….38 Table 3: 1999 General Election Vote Shares for Selected Parties……………….38 Table 4: Selected literature related with migration and refugee movement.........56 Table 5: Data periods………………………………………………………………..105 Table 6: Descriptive Statistics table for all provinces in each period…………...130 Table 7: Descriptive Statistics table for Region A provinces in each period…..131 Table 8: Significance of variables for 1992-2001…………………………….......143 Table 9: SPSS results of 1st model for 1992-2001………………………………..144 Table 10: SPSS results of 2nd model for 1992-2001……………………………..146 Table 11: SPSS results of 3rd model for 1992-2001……………………………...147 Table 12: SPSS results of 4th model for 1992-2001……………………………...148 Table 13: Significance of variables for 1992-1995………………………………..151 Table 14: SPSS results of 1st model for 1992-1995………………………………152 Table 15: SPSS results of 2nd model for 1992-1995……………………………..153 Table 16: SPSS results of 3rd model for 1992-1995……………………………...154 Table 17: SPSS results of 4th model for 1992-1995……………………………...155 Table 18: Significance of variables for 1996-1996………………………………..158 Table 19: SPSS results of 1st model for 1996-1999………………………………159 Table 20: SPSS results of 2nd model for 1996-1999……………………….…….160 ix Table 21: SPSS results of 3rd model for 1996-1999……………………………...161 Table 22: SPSS results of 4th model for 1996-1999……………………………...162 Table 23: Significance of variables for 2000-2001………………………………..165 Table 24: SPSS results of 1st model for 2000-2001………………………………166 Table 25: SPSS results of 2nd model for 2000-2001……………………………..167 Table 26: SPSS results of 3rd model for 2000-2001……………………………...168 Table 27: SPSS results of 4th model for 2000-2001……………………………...169 Table 28: Significance of variables for H5…………………………………….......174 Table 29: Outcomes of the hypotheses……………………………………….......198 x List of Figures Page Figure 1: Variables of migration in groups……………………………………….....57 Figure 2: Visual representation of relationship………...………………………….104 Figure 3: Differences in terrorism incident rate……………………………………179 Figure 4: Comparison of the means of net-migration rate between regions…..181 Figure 5: Comparison of the means of incident rate between regions…...........183 Figure 6: Comparison of the means of death rate between regions……………186 Figure 7: Comparison of the means of GDP per person between regions…….187 Figure 8: Comparison of the means of unemployment between regions………188 Figure 9: Comparison of the means of population density between regions.....191 xi Abstract IMPACT OF TERRORISM ON MIGRATION PATTERNS IN TURKEY By Yilmaz Simsek, Ph.D. A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at Virginia Commonwealth University Virginia Commonwealth University, 2006 Major Director: Dr. Judyth Twigg, Professor, Political Science, L. Douglas Wilder School
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