30 AvailableNew on-lineZealand at: Journal http://www.newzealandecology.org/nzje/ of Ecology, Vol. 35, No. 1, 2011 Meta-analysis of status and trends in breeding populations of black-fronted terns (Chlidonias albostriatus) 1962−2008 Colin F. J. O’Donnell* and Joanne M. Hoare Research and Development Group, Department of Conservation, PO Box 13049, Christchurch 8141, New Zealand *Author for correspondence (Email:
[email protected]) Published on-line: 17 November 2010 Abstract: Black-fronted tern (Chlidonias albostriatus) breeding populations on braided rivers in the South Island, New Zealand, are assumed to be in decline as their habitat comes under increasing pressure from exotic pests, hydroelectric power development and water abstraction. We collated 326 index counts of black-fronted terns from 2313 km of surveys on 84 rivers throughout their breeding range to test this assumption. Black- fronted terns were observed on 73% (n = 61) of rivers surveyed, and the sum of the most recent counts was 8325 birds. However, >200 black-fronted terns were counted on only 14% of rivers. We used generalised linear modelling to assess whether population trends could be detected using data from 29 rivers where counts were repeated 4–18 times between 1962 and 2008. We detected significant declines on eight rivers (range 5.5–15.8% p.a.), a significant increase on one river (Eglinton; 16.3% p.a.) and no trends on the remaining 20 rivers. The Eglinton River is the only site at which sustained predator control (aimed at mustelids) occurred throughout the monitoring period. Rivers on which declines have occurred are characterised by having relatively low flows (<30 m3 s–1).