Contents

iv Acknowledgments

vi Foreword

viii Abbreviations

x Overview

xii Major Disasters since UR2012

n Changing Risk/Uncertainty

3 Can We Determine Today the Potential Loss of Tomorrow—and Change Our Future?

9 The Future Is Not What It Used to Be: The Economic Risk of Climate Change

n Data

15 What if Rome had Been Built in a Day? The Rapid Changes in Urban Exposure

21 Game of Drones

25 The Power of the Crowd: Harnessing Communities and Opening Data

n Risk Modelling

35 Mission Impossible: Using Global Flood Risk Assessments for Local Decision Making

41 Plug and Play: What Will It Take to Connect the Modelling Tools?

n Risk Finance and Insurance

49 Worth Your Money? What Risk Models and Economic Models Tell Us about the Development Impact of Insurance and Financial Protection

55 Models Make Markets: How Catastrophe Risk Models Facilitate New Systems of Risk Transfer, Risk Pooling, and Risk Reduction

59 Big Numbers, Small States, and Risk Pooling for Insurance n Psychology of Risk

69 Game Over: Exploring the Complexity of Actionable Information through Gaming

73 Science and Emotion: Using Technical Information in Practice

77 Thinking Fast and Slow: Why Catastrophe Risks Lead Us to Behave Differently

81 Changing the Risk Paradigm: Reducing Losses and Exploiting Opportunities

85 Science, Politics, and What We Value How Big Is the Risk of Climate Change? n Building Resilience

93 Back to the Drawing Board

97 The Role of Ecosystems in Reducing Risk: Advances and Opportunities in Risk Assessment and Risk Management

105 How Might Emerging Technology Strengthen Urban Resilience? n Partnerships

111 Can Flood Resilience Be Measured? An Innovative Collaborative Approach May Do Just That

117 Beyond Physical Risk: Looking through a Socioeconomic Lens

127 UNISDR Global Risk Assessment: Toward an Enhanced Vision of Global Disaster Risk

OF INTEREST

23 Interview with Patricia de Lille, Mayor of Cape Town, South Africa 28 Open Data for Resilience Initiative: Key Challenges 65 Interview with Lianne Dalziel, Mayor of Christchurch, New Zealand 115 Development of a Global Probabilistic Cost-Benefit Analysis Tool 122 Game Time: Monitoring Changing Riskscapes with GEM and SENSUM Tools 132 Urban Risk and Resilience Plenary: “I Want to Be a Mayor” Acknowledgements

Thank you for the enthusiasm and energy devoted to the 2014 UR Forum in London. While we cannot mention all the organizations and individuals who contributed their time and ideas, we would like to highlight some of our key contributors.

First off, we would like to thank the 2014UR partners: University College London, the Africa Caribbean Pacific – European Union Natural Disaster Risk Reduction Program financed by the EU, Willis, the World Bank Group, the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), Esri, RMS, Google, and Siemens.

A special thank you to all the organizations that were involved in the UR Forum by leading a technical session, running a workshop, or participating in the UR exhibit: ARUP, AIR Worldwide, the American Red Cross, the British Red Cross, CARLtd, ClimateWise, Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), Deltares, eartH2Observe, European Commission – Joint Research Centre, FM Global, Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation, GFZ Potsdam, ImageCat, Inc., the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), the Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), the London School of Economics (LSE), Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance, The Nature Conservancy (TNC), Oasis, Overseas Development Institute (ODI), Red Cross/ Red Crescent Climate Centre, Renaissance Re, Research Councils UK (RCUK), Secondmuse, Swiss Re, UK Agency for International Development (UK AID), UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (UK FCO), UK Department for International Development (DFID), UNESCO, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), VU University Amsterdam, Willis Research Network, the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, the World Bank Institute, World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and Zurich Insurance Group.

We would also like to extend our gratitude to our keynote, opening, and closing speakers: Professor Michael Arthur, Rowan Douglas, Ed Parsons, Robbie Schingler, and Professor David Spiegelhalter. Thank you to those who contributed to our inaugural plenary: Dr. Aris Alip, Honorable Mayor Lianne Dalziel, Honorable Mayor Patricia de Lille, Dr. Roman Frigg, Sir Edward Lister, and Matt Frei. We are grateful for the support of our Champions for Disaster Resilience: Helen Clark, Kristalina Ivanova Georgieva, Secretary Justin Greening, Rachel Kyte, Secretary Cesar V. Purisima, and our moderator Professor Ngaire Woods. Thank you to the distinguished speakers who joined us at Guildhall: the Right Honorable Lord Mayor of London, Alderman Fiona Woolf, CBE; Dr. Jeffrey Sachs;

iv Stéphane Jacobzone; Sebastian von Dahlen; Michel Lies; and Rebecca Moore. Thank you to the inspiring speakers at the 5x15 event who provided a different perspective on risk: Giles Duley, Professor Ian Goldin, Dr. Henry Thomas Marsh, Heather McGregor, and Ed Smith.

Thank you to our session leads for putting extensive time and effort into organizing their sessions, and for writing the summaries for this publication: Abigail Baca, Michael Bonte, Daniel Clarke, Adam Cooper, Jo da Silva, Tiguist Fisseha, Matt Foote, Linda Freiner, Maryam Golnaraghi, Lou Gritzo, Debarati Guha, Akshay Gupta, Niels Holm-Nielsen, Alex Kaplan, Nicole Keller, Kamal Kishore, Howard Kunreuther, Neil Morisetti, Robert Muir-Wood, David Nash, Massimiliano Pittore, John Rees, Vica Rosario Bogaerts, Sahar Safaie, Peter Salamon, Simon Sharpe, Benedikt Signer, Robert Soden, Pablo Suarez, Philip Ward, Emily Wilkinson, and Hessel Winsemius. A special thanks to all of their panelists and coauthors too.

We would like to acknowledge the teams that were involved and the following individuals: Bianca Adam, Sajid Anwar, Yewondwossen Assefa, Christophe Aubrecht, Trish Barrett, Sofia Bettencourt, Jack Campbell, Keren Charles, Manuela Chiapparino, Christophe Chung, John Crowley, James Daniell, Vivien Deparday, Eric Dickson, Laura Dorling, Edouard Ereno Blanchet, Ruben Graml, Tiguist Fisseha, Marc Forni, Oscar Ishizawa, Yohannes Kesete, David Lallemant, Rick Murnane, Marc Neilson, James Newman, Ariel Nunez, Shaela Rahman, Robert Reid, Keiko Saito, Prashant Singh, Samanmalee Sirimanne, Annegien Tijssen, Luis Tineo, Vladimir Tsirkunov, Jon Walton, and Steven Wong.

Thanks to the different teams and individuals who through the planning process helped us coordinate the forum, in London: Olivia Gray, Daisy Leitch, Michael Stevns, and the TFI Group (Valerie Bassigny, Barbara Blow, Alice Crocker, Rui Cruz Alves, Laura Drake, Rob Eveleigh, Lynda Judge, Sean McGrath, Ben Stanley, and Caroline Windsor); and in Washington, DC: Desy Adiati, Regianne Bertolassi, Miki Fernández, Anne Himmelfarb, and Katie Moss.

And last, but not least, the UR2014 volunteers: Mirianna Budimir, Evie Kerman Fiore, Alexandra Popescu, and Sabina Sadigova. Thank you for your time, dedication, and creativity in making this event a success!

The UR core team—Francis Ghesquiere, Dr. Alanna Simpson, Emma Phillips, Joaquin Toro, Angela Wyan, Simone Balog, and Clio Heslop

v Foreword

How can we communicate risk information in a way that leads decision makers to take concrete actions to reduce risk from adverse natural events? In June 2014, almost a thousand risk assessment experts and practitioners from around the world gathered in London to answer this question at the third biennial Understanding Risk (UR) Forum. Over a five-day period, the UR community— scientists, modellers, economists, psychologists, disaster risk management practitioners, and policy makers—explored better ways of “Producing Actionable Information.”

Since UR2010, we have seen new applications and techniques proliferate and a growing community take on the challenge of understanding disaster risk. These proceedings try to capture the rich discussions that took place during the Forum. The articles are organized into seven categories that reflect the range of topics covered during the event. All of the articles explore how to improve the way we provide decision makers with robust, credible, and trusted information that will be used to build a more resilient future.

Changing risk /uncertainty The changing drivers of disaster risk—mainly demographics, urbanization, and climate change—increase our uncertainty about risk, further complicating efforts to assess and communicate it. Discussions were centered on these changing landscapes and highlighted the need to work together to develop new ways of understanding the evolution of risk and the potential impacts of climate change.

Data In the last decade we have seen an explosion in access to and availability of data. Forum participants discussed actionable use of data and explored the role of technological advances, such as drone technology and data management systems, in helping us better understand risk, even as risk continues to evolve.

Risk modelling Modelling disaster risk is central to producing actionable information: modelling can help policy makers quantify and value the future impact of decisions made today. New multi-hazard risk modelling platforms for open and inclusive collaboration and ongoing efforts to explore the potential interoperability of existing tools were among the most striking developments presented at the Forum.

vi Photo: sourish mitra

Risk finance and insurance We learned how Small Island States—among the world’s most vulnerable communities—have used risk assessments to establish innovative financial protection mechanisms to pool and transfer their risk. Globally, more and more countries are using risk information to leverage innovative risk financing solutions to protect their fiscal space against disasters and climate extremes.

Psychology of risk We took a closer look at games and gameplay as a means of helping decision makers understand the complexities of probabilities and uncertainty. The Forum explored how understanding the process of decision making can help us communicate risk information more effectively and develop incentives to modify behavior and promote resilience.

Building resilience Applying risk information to build community resilience was a core topic of the Forum. Participants discussed exciting new work to measure resilience, technological innovation to support community participation, and other actions on the ground.

Partnerships UR’s main objective is to encourage the creation of atypical partnerships. As in previous years, the Forum provided a platform for all sorts of communities to interact, discuss issues, and challenge current thinking. I am always impressed by the number of new partnerships that emerge from the Forum and their ability to promote entirely new ideas on how we can address disaster risk.

Many activities that took place during the Forum (though not presented in these proceedings) pushed our intellectual boundaries and inspired us to think about risk in new ways. Among them was our collaboration with 5x15, a cultural events company that hosted a conversation on risk between a neuroscientist, a former national cricketer, a war photographer, an Oxford professor, and a Financial Times columnist—challenging the audience to think more creatively about risk. We encourage you to explore this event and others at www.understandrisk.org.

It goes without saying that an event as rich as UR2014 would not have been possible without the collaboration and contribution of many individuals and organizations, nor the generous support of our sponsors who enabled us to bring practitioners from around the globe.

Thank you to everyone for your support. We hope you enjoy the proceedings, and look forward to working with you all again. See you in 2016!

Francis Ghesquiere GFDRR Secretariat

vii Abbreviations

AAL average annual loss ACP-EU Africa, Caribbean and Pacific–European Union AFAD Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (Turkey) CAPRA Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment CBA cost-benefit analysis CCRIF Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility CDKN Climate and Development Knowledge Network CDRP country disaster risk profile CEDIM Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology CNT conviction narrative theory DEM digital elevation model DFID Department for International Development (United Kingdom) DRFI disaster risk financing and insurance DRM disaster risk management DRRM disaster risk reduction and management EAP expected annual probability EO Earth Observation FONDEN National Fund for Natural Disasters (Mexico) FP7 Seventh Framework Programme GAR Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction GDP gross domestic product GEM Global Earthquake Model GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery GFP Global Flood Partnership GIS geographic information system GLOFRIS GLObal Flood Risk with IMAGE Scenarios G-Safety Global Safety HFA Hyogo Framework for Action IA Impact Appraisal IDCT Inventory Data Capture Tool viii IFRC International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis InfoRM Index for Risk Management IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IRIDeS International Research Institute for Disaster Science ISMEP Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project MCEER Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research NOAH Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards NSET Nepal Society of Earthquake Technology OGC Open Geospatial Consortium OpenDRI Open Data for Resilience Initiative OSM OpenStreetMap PAGER Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response PCRAFI Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative PML probable maximum loss RCP Representative Concentration Pathway RRVS rapid remote visual screening SENSUM Framework for integrating Space-based and in-situ sENSing for dynamic vUlnerability and recovery Monitoring SIDS Small Island Developing States TRGS technical risk grading standard UAV unmanned aerial vehicle UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNISDR United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction UN OCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs UR Understanding Risk USAID United States Agency for International Development VGI volunteered geographic information WMO World Meteorological Organization

ix DAYS IN LONDON

60 countries represented

840 attendees 9 PLENARIES 24 TECHNICAL SESSIONS 24 SIDE WORKSHOPS AND TRAININGS, AND 2 ON-SITE EXHIBITS

285 institutions represented including civil society, private sector, academia, research institutions , and government agencies.

x Overview

Understanding Risk (UR) is a global community of almost 3,500 experts and practitioners in the field of disaster risk assessment. Every two years, the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) convenes the UR Forum—a five-day event to showcase best practices and the latest technical know-how in disaster risk assessment. The Forum provides organizations with the opportunity to highlight new activities and initiatives, build new partnerships, and foster advances in the field.

UR2014, the third biennial Forum, was held in London, UK, from June 30 to July 4, 2014. Under the theme “Producing Actionable Information,” participants explored the creation of risk information for decision making. Since our first UR Forum in 2010, the UR community has grown exponentially. Attendance at UR2014 was twice that of the previous UR Forum, held in South Africa. We are confident that future forums will continue to engage the disaster risk community, fostering the growth of partnerships to spur the advances in risk assessment needed for achieving sustainable development and building resilience.

Organized by

In partnership with

With financial support from

®

xi Major Disasters since UR2012

GERMANY 2013 4 6,350 US$12,900

UNITED KINGDOM 2012 UNITED STATES 4 1,700 2012 2012 41 54 US$1,630

US$5,000 US$50,000

MEXICO 2013 169 NIGER 105,000 US$4,200 2012 32 GUATEMALA 165,943 2012 US$64.724 44 1,321,742 US$210 BRAZIL 2014

4,300 SAMOA 2012 12 12,703 Key BOLIVIA NAMIBIA US$133 2013 2013 Drought 25 64 145,000 331,000 US$2.5 Earthquake

Flood ARGENTINA 2013 Storm 52 3,500,000 US$1,300 Year Fatalities Total affected Est. damages (US$ million)

xii Since the second meeting of the Understanding Risk (UR) Community in Cape Town, South Africa, in July 2012, the world has seen hundreds of natural disasters that have caused more than US$1 trillion in losses, the vast majority of them uninsured, and affected thousands of lives. Below are some of the largest disasters in terms of economic losses and human impact.

RUSSIA 2012 2013

US$1,140 34,135 US$1,000

CZECH REP CHINA 2013 2012 2013 2013 151 198 233 15 JAPAN 1,300,000 1,000,000 2,198,785 3,500,000 US$8,000 US$6,800 US$4,621.6 2012 US$828,552 2 18,225 PAKISTAN US$27.4 2012 2012 480 VIETNAM 30 5,049,364 2013 48,135 US$2,500 5 US$1,400 5,000 CHAD US$6.5 2012 2013 THAILAND PHILIPPINES 20 2013 594,831 1,600,000 61 2013 2013 US$10 3,500,000 31 7,986 US$482 3,096,422 16,106,807 US$10,000 SOMALIA INDIA INDONESIA 2013 2013 PAPUA NEW 162 2013 48 GUINEA 6,054 142,380 55,935 2012 504,473 US$130 5 US$1,100 200,000 NAMIBIA 2013 US$27 MOZAMBIQUE 2013 34 2013 47 248,846 64 2013 119 13,230,000 US$3,000 SOLOMON US$633.471 ZIMBABWE 240,000 AUSTRALIA ISLANDS US$30 2013 2013 2014 564 22 7,500 2,200,000 50,000 US$2,000 US$24

xiii Rocinha is the largest favela in Brazil, and is located in Rio de Janeiro’s South Zone between the districts of São Conrado and Gávea. Photo: dislentev/Thinkstock.com Changing Risk/ Uncertainty

Can We Determine Today the Potential Loss of Tomorrow—and Change Our Future? [page 3]

The Future Is Not What It Used to Be: The Economic Risk of Climate Change [page 9] usable practical scientific trust dynamic comprehensive investment authoritative flexible local

relevant open integrated communication targeted useful data robust

What does best-practice risk information look like? The word cloud is based on responses to a survey of the Understanding Risk community and on submissions to the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery report Understanding Risk in an Evolving World: Emerging Best Practices in Natural Disaster Risk Assessment (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2014). Can We Determine

Today the Potential Changing Risk/Uncertainty Loss of Tomorrow—and Change Our Future?

Dr. Alanna Simpson, Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist, GFDRR Kamal Kishore, Program Adviser, Disaster Risk Reduction and Recovery Team, United Nations Development Programme, Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery

A range of new approaches featured in this session are also of building codes, and hence to understanding risk—from captured in the new publication demonstrates the benefit of collection of new data to new Understanding Risk in an spending additional funds on methods for modelling and Evolving World: Emerging Best building inspectors. authoritative communicating risk information— Practices in Natural Disaster Risk has facilitated evidence-based Assessment.1 Recent analysis in Kathmandu decision making across the globe. used a single earthquake scenario, Our progress in understanding How Well Can Growing a reproduction of the 1934 risk has gaps, however, including Risk Be Modelled? magnitude 8.1 Bihar earthquake, to our failure to adequately model capture the seismic risk trajectory and communicate future risk, Risk assessments need to of this highly vulnerable city. and a failure to communicate risk account for temporal and spatial Simulating changes in exposure information so that it triggers changes in hazard, exposure, and building vulnerability through action. and vulnerability, particularly in time, the analysis shows the rapid rapidly urbanizing areas or where increase in the number of heavily The experiences and innovations climate change impacts will be damaged or collapsed buildings. in understanding and managing felt the most. A risk assessment The results show the current and risk described in this session—from that provides an estimation of potential future (or predicted) Peru, Morocco, Jordan, Turkey, evolving or future risk is a way to seismic risk for Kathmandu based Nepal, the Philippines, and Papua engage stakeholders in carrying on the building practices common New Guinea—highlight the urgent out actions now in order to today and the rapidly changing need for risk information that is avoid or mitigate the risk that exposure. Critically, however, targeted, authoritative, trusted, is accumulating in their city or this analysis also shows that this robust, open, and understandable, country. For example, analysis predicted risk is not yet realized and that ultimately can be used can now be undertaken to show risk; that is, we still have a chance to create a safer and more the decrease in future risk that to ensure an outcome different resilient future. The case studies arises from better enforcement from the one projected. For

3 Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum

example, increasing the quality of Figure 1. Changing seismic risk in Kathmandu, Nepal. The figure shows the result of all new construction in Kathmandu ensuring that all new construction is better designed for earthquakes. could result in a 20 percent decrease in risk in 15 years (figure 400,000 Predicted risk 1), vastly reducing the number of Predicted risk assuming people killed, homes destroyed, and increased quality of all 300,000 20% lives and livelihoods disrupted. new construction EXPECTED REDUCTION IN 15 YEARS Risk Information Should 200,000 Have a Clear Purpose heavy damage and End-User 100,000 Number of buildings sustaining

The importance of ensuring that risk information has a clearly 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 defined purpose and end-user Source: David Lallemant. can be seen in the experiences of Morocco, where targeting disaster risk information was than 5,000 individual buildings. decision makers at all levels. This part of an integrated approach This successful use of risk understanding has successfully to risk management. This information to reduce risk was guided a long-term Australian– approach, which also considered founded on a three-part strategy Philippine partnership, which was commodity and agricultural that (1) used the results of the established to support national risk, enhanced the vertical and seismic risk assessment to inform government authorities in the horizontal engagement within the a US$200 million retrofitting Philippines in locally developing government of Morocco; enabled program in Lima; (2) enabled the credible, transparent, and the consistent identification risk assessment to be scaled trusted risk information. Under and prioritization of key risks; to the whole country while the Greater Metro Manila improved an understanding of key soliciting local experts to improve Area Risk Assessment Project, risk interdependencies; enhanced vulnerability functions; and (3) which was undertaken as part communication and coordination; ensured that decision makers in of this partnership, more than and helped the government to the Ministry of Education trusted 10 Philippine government make informed and cost-effective the risk modellers producing the agencies and Local Government decisions. information. Units worked with Geoscience Australia to develop and Targeted seismic risk information Risk Information Should deliver a quantitative, multi- is also proving valuable in Peru, Be Credible, Trusted, hazard risk assessment, using where Ministry of Education and Transparent open source modelling tools. officials have used it to inform This highly technical analysis a retrofitting program aimed at The credibility of risk information was then communicated to 1,500 schools comprising more is critical to its uptake and use by local government officials and

The experiences and innovations in understanding and managing risk described in this session—from Peru, Morocco, Jordan, Turkey, Nepal, the Philippines, and Papua New Guinea—highlight the urgent need for risk information that is targeted, authoritative, trusted, robust, open, and understandable, and that ultimately can be used to create a safer and more resilient future.

4 Can We Determine Today the Potential Loss of Tomorrow —and Change Our Future?

Figure 2. Severe wind risk map for Manila highlighting modelled building damage for a hazard with a 1-in-500-year return period, or 0.2 percent expected annual probability (EAP). Changing Risk/Uncertainty

Legend Municipal boundary Building damage cost (Million Peso/Sq.km) n < 50 n 50.1 – 100.0 n 100.1 – 200.0 n 200.1 – 300.0 n 300.1 – 400.0 n > 400

Source: Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. communities through animations seismic risk analysis was carried awareness will remain an ongoing (http://www.youtube.com/ out in Aqaba from 2009 to 2010 focus. watch?v=1W0QCfFQB3w). Figure by the Royal Scientific Society in 2 shows a map developed under partnership with the Civil Defense Risk Information Should the project. authorities, Jordanian National Be Well Communicated Building Council, and Jordanian to Different Audiences Credible seismic risk information Engineers Association.2 Strong was part of what made partnerships made up of local Communicating new information development in the city of Aqaba, institutions were able to produce on volcanic, tsunami, and Jordan, possible, and was also a a credible analysis that is informing earthquake risks to local key part of its transition into a building codes, urban zoning and communities was a priority of Special Economic Zone (a move construction, and enforcement a partnership between the that has the potential to promote monitoring. Communicating the governments of Australia and substantial economic growth seismic results to various public Papua New Guinea. Educational and investment in the city). The and private groups to raise materials were produced in English

5 Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum

Figure 3. Educational materials on volcano risk produced under a partnership of the Papua New Guinea and Australian governments.

Source: Geoscience Australia. and local languages after extensive serving more than 1.1 million How Can We Avoid consultation with local authorities students and teachers and Future Losses? and members of the community hospitals serving about 8.7 million (see figure 3 for an example). patients annually. Less well While the risk in rapidly urbanizing known but also very important cities is changing dramatically and mostly for the worse, there is Another example of effective is AFAD’s effort to communicate communication of risk information an important opportunity today risk information through many is offered by Turkey, whose to reduce future risk by avoiding different channels and approaches, Disaster and Emergency the risks that are yet to be including earthquake museums Management Presidency (AFAD) realized. Risk modelling can help to help residents remember past has made significant progress in policy makers avoid future risk by disasters; mobile disaster training using risk information to reduce quantifying and valuing the future seismic risks. Under the Istanbul centers that teach citizens what impact of the decisions made today. Seismic Risk Mitigation and to do during an earthquake or Emergency Preparedness Project other disaster; and various mobile Christchurch, New Zealand, offers (ISMEP) project,3 more than a applications and teleconference an example of such avoided losses. thousand buildings have been systems to ensure that needed When a magnitude 7.9 earthquake retrofitted or reconstructed information reaches as many struck Napier, New Zealand, in in Istanbul, including schools citizens as possible. 1931, it destroyed most of the

6 Can We Determine Today the Potential Loss of Tomorrow —and Change Our Future? city of 28,000 residents and authority to make decisions today Endnotes resulted in 256 fatalities. Eighty that affect the generations of years later, a shallow magnitude tomorrow. 1 Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, Understanding Disaster 6.3 earthquake occurred directly Risk in an Evolving World: Emerging below Christchurch—but this Contributors to the session Best Practices in Natural Disaster Risk Assessment (Washington, DC: World far more populous city (375,000 Dr. Andrew Jones, Regional Bank, 2014), https://www.gfdrr.org/ RAReferenceGuide.

residents) experienced fewer Changing Risk/Uncertainty Development Section Lead, (185) fatalities. As powerful and Geoscience Australia 2 The assessment received funding from devastating as this earthquake David Lallemant, Graduate Fellow, the Swiss Agency for Development was, the impacts would have and Cooperation (SDC) and the United Stanford University Nations Development Programme. been much worse had not the Fernando Ramirez, Senior Disaster 3 For more about ISMEP, see http://www. New Zealand government acted Risk Management Specialist, World over the decades to reduce risk. worldbank.org/en/results/2014/08/05/ Bank Group enhancing-seismic-preparedness-in- Its ban on unreinforced masonry Axel Baeumler, Senior Urban istanbul. construction in the aftermath Specialist, World Bank Group of the Napier event meant that Abu Aisha, Director Architecture, the building stock in Christchurch Planning, and Disaster Risk was inherently more earthquake Management, Aqaba Special Economic resilient than if this decision had Zone Authority (ASEZA), Jordan not been taken. Elaboration of Ozlem Velioglu, Disaster and these cases of avoided loss could Emergency Management Presidency, provide a powerful narrative to Turkey decision makers, who have the

Further resources

GFDRR, Understanding Disaster Risk in an Evolving World: Emerging Best Practices in Natural Disaster Risk Assessment (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2014), https://www.gfdrr.org/RAReferenceGuide. This report highlights the contributions disaster risk assessments have made over the last 10 years and examines case studies spanning 43 countries. GFDRR, Understanding Disaster Risk in an Evolving World: A Policy Note (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2014), https://www.gfdrr. org/RAPolicyNote. This policy note demonstrates the need to continue investment in accurate risk information and suggests recommendations for future disaster risk assessments. GFDRR, Review of Open Source and Open Access Software Packages Available to Quantify Risk from Natural Hazards (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2014), https://www.gfdrr.org/RASoftwareReview. This systematic review of freely available hazard and risk modelling software is designed to facilitate selection of appropriate tools for various disaster risk management (DRM) activities. M. Haklay, V. Antoniou, S. Basiouka, R. Soden, and P. Mooney, “Crowdsourced Geographic Information Use in Government,” Report to GFDRR (World Bank), London, 2014, https://gfdrr.org/crowdsourced-geographic-information-use-government. This report focuses on government use of information produced through “crowdsourcing,” the process of obtaining information from many contributors among the general public. GFDRR, Open Data for Resilience Initiative Field Guide (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2014), https://gfdrr.org/ODRIFG. This guide, which highlights the experience and approaches of Open Data for Resilience (OpenDRI), including the use of tools such as GeoNode and crowdsourcing, is aimed at practitioners considering how open data may support a DRM project.

7 Photo: abluecup/Thinkstock.com The Future Is

Not What It Changing Risk/Uncertainty Used to Be

The Economic Risk of Climate Change

Dr. Louis Gritzo, Vice President, Head of Research, FM Global

Introduction Background/Concepts

Changes in the climate have the As the world economy grows and potential to produce significant changes, the risk to businesses, changes in the risk posed by governments, and public well-being natural hazards around the will be dominated by the combined world. As highlighted in the dynamic effects of changes in latest Intergovernmental Panel hazards, and the increasingly fast on Climate Change report,1 the evolution of economic vulnerability current state of knowledge on to extreme events. climate science, and hence the risk posed by climate change, is Current trends show overall annual clouded with uncertainty. Given losses from natural catastrophes the potentially devastating have exceeded US$250 billion economic effects on cities and twice in the last 10 years and have regions, and on the businesses and averaged near US$100 billion in the people located there, it is vital for prior 30 years.2 Global data from disaster risk managers to have Munich Re show that the number a current factual understanding of extreme events (those exceeding of climate change and its impact US$1 billion in economic impact) on natural hazards. Gaining this tends to fluctuate on the time knowledge requires that experts in scale of every 6 to 10 years, but climate science, economic trends, has slowly increased overall during and business resilience work the last 30 years. In addition to together with a common goal of rising total losses and numbers of ensuring public well-being. extreme events, recent years have

9 Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum also seen an increase in the scale economies and coastal urban 1. Climate science is not and scope of individual catastrophes. areas, which increases the density a long-term weather For example, the 2011 floods in of economic value in regions that forecast. The goal of a Thailand exceeded US$46.5 billion are disproportionately exposed to climate projection is to in damage and direct losses,3 not hazards from wind and water— understand the trends including the cascading losses arising the two hazards most impacted present in the changing from affected supply chains of global by changes in the climate. In a statistics of weather. These businesses. scenario in which the number of trends are subject to an extreme weather events did not evolving bias in the change These impacts not only affect change but emerging regions had of the overall climate and business shareholder value. They at risk the same economic value as hence have to be expressed in can also have a devastating that found in developed regions, probabilistic terms due to the effect on small- to medium-size worldwide natural hazard losses high degree of variability in businesses that rely heavily on would increase by a factor of what we observe as weather. a small number of products or three. components to sustain jobs that 2. The specific hazards and the time frame of change support local economies. According Disaster risk managers face are important. Although to the World Bank assessment several challenges. They need short-term increases have of the Thailand floods, the most to monitor trends; they need to been predicted in the past, severely impacted populations understand potential changes they have proven not to be credible. The disconnect Achieving resilience requires public policy makers, between short-term trends business leaders, and researchers to translate and long-term observations is the current science into action and collaborate to reflected in the discrepancies accelerate the understanding of the evolving risk. between climate science and the portrayal of events by in the climate and the evolution some media. Despite media from that event were from poor in vulnerability; and they need coverage that attributed and marginalized households who to take measures to prevent, specific storms to climate could least afford the lost income; mitigate, and/or recover from the change, U.S. hurricanes have they suffered more than US$3.4 consequences. The word that best not increased in frequency or billion in lost wages. describes this goal is “resilience.” intensity since 1900. Continual Achieving resilience requires public and highly geographically Preventing the escalation of policy makers, business leaders, variable increases in sea level, the economic consequences of and researchers to translate the however, are well established. natural hazards requires assessing current science into action and increases in vulnerability along with 3. Risk is currently driven by collaborate to accelerate the changes in climate. Factors driving economic factors. Although understanding of the evolving risk. increases in vulnerability—including losses continue to increase, when adjusted for increase the total assets exposed to these Recommendations hazards and the consequences in value, there is no upward of those assets being Recommended efforts are both trend in loss from natural impacted—continue to expand local and global in scale, and must hazards. This observation at a steady rate. Interconnected be based on the following lessons does not mean changes won’t economic growth is increasingly learned: occur in the future, only (as concentrated in emerging per above) that the trends

10 The Future is Not What Is Used to Be: The Economic Risk of Climate Change

will evolve over long periods Conclusions Contributors to the session of time. With the world changing faster Professor Tim Palmer, Royal Society Research Professor in Climate Physics, 4. The need for energy is the every year, it’s more important driving factor of economic Oxford University, Co-director of than ever for disaster risk the Oxford Martin Programme on growth. Population growth managers to be informed and avoid Modelling and Predicting Climate and urbanization will continue the trap of inaction produced by Professor Roger Pielke Jr., Professor Changing Risk/Uncertainty to increase demand for energy the cloud of uncertainty. Taking and Director of Center for Science in the most available and cost- a factual view of the economics and Technology Policy Research at effective forms. Energy is of climate risk is the basis for a University of Colorado the key challenge in terms of proactive approach to reducing Mr. Jeremy Oppenheim, Director efficiency and overall business risk. This approach must involve of McKinsey’s Global Sustainability value stability. climate change mitigation (from and Resource Productivity Practice reduced environmental impact) and Leader of New Climate Economy 5. There is a space full of Project and climate adaptation (through opportunity for improved improved resilience). Even in economic growth and Endnotes an environment where hazards reduced risk. Sustainable are not increasing, the current 1 IPCC, “Summary for Policymakers,” modes of energy efficiency acceptance of risk will lead to in Climate Change 2013: The Physical are already making a huge Science Basis. Contribution of Working unacceptable outcomes in the difference. The right Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report long term. The potential long-term of the Intergovernmental Panel on technologies will continue to Climate Change, ed. T. F. Stocker et al. climate change trends, however, expand, and—with economic (Cambridge and New York: Cambridge underscore the urgency of taking University Press, 2013), http://www. growth—the potential for actions that are both good for the climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/ investing in more resilient and WGIAR5-SPM_Approved27Sep2013.pdf. economy and good to reduce risk. lower-emitting energy sources In summary, measures to reduce 2 2013 Natural Catastrophe Year in Review, should improve in step. Munich Re NatCat Service, January 7, risk should have a “trigger point” Investing in these systems, 2014. for implementation where cost- and making others more effective measures of resilience 3 Global Facility for Disaster Reduction resilient, is good economics. and Recovery, “Thai Flood 2011: Rapid are reasonable and actionable. Innovation (of all types) that Assessment for Resilient Recovery and Reconstruction Planning,” World Bank, is firmly in this space is yet 2012. another economic opportunity.

Further resources

R. J. Pielke, The Climate Fix (New York: Basic Books, 2011). McKinsey Global Institute, “Resource Revolution: Meeting the World’s Needs for Energy, Food, Water and Materials,” 2011.

11 Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum

Photo: agsandrew/Thinkstock.com12 GAME OVER? Exploring the Complexity of Actionable Information through Gaming

Data

What if Rome had Been Built in a Day? The Rapid Changes in Urban Exposure [page 15]

Game of Drones [page 21]

The Power of the Crowd: Harnessing Communities and Opening Data [page 25] Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum

Photo: hkeita/Thinkstock.com14 What if Rome had Data Been Built in a Day? The Rapid Changes in Urban Exposure Toward Capturing and Fusing Dynamic Information with Exposure Models through New Technology

Dr. Keiko Saito, Disaster Risk Management Specialist, GFDRR

In the context of disaster risk further element of uncertainty in sets) and the bottom-up approach modelling, exposure data are an the exposure model. By exploiting (based on the integration of in expression of the “population, the wealth of information that is situ field data collection). Many assets, and values at risk” from now becoming available through developing countries exposed to natural hazards. They are meant Earth Observation (EO) and natural hazards do not uniformly to quantify the number and other continuous data-capturing collect consistent and detailed value of both stocks and flows frameworks, it is possible to move data sets applicable for exposure at risk. To estimate the likely risk toward a more dynamic approach. modelling, such as cadastral data. (e.g., in terms of expected social The challenge is to find innovative, To compensate for this lack of data or monetary loss) from natural efficient methodologies for and the computational limitations hazards, the exposure data and collecting, organizing, storing, and of modelling, aggregated exposure the vulnerability of the exposed communicating exposure data on data sets are commonly used in assets are considered in relation to a local or even global scale, while disaster risk models. the severity and spatial extent of also accounting for the inherent the hazard in question. An example of a top-down spatiotemporal dynamics.1 exposure modelling approach is the Most exposure modelling one pursued by the World Bank’s methodologies capture the values Case Studies Global Practice for Social, Urban, at risk in a static manner—i.e., the Rural, and Resilience disaster risk data represent the value at risk at There are typically two approaches management team in creating a certain point in time. However, to developing exposure models, probabilistic country disaster risk the values at risk change over the so-called top-down approach profiles (CDRPs) for the Caribbean. time, sometimes rapidly, and their (based on the disaggregation of This novel approach to exposure capacity to change introduces a country-level, large-scale geo-data modelling integrates three

15 Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum different exposure databases data efficiently collected on the to several well-known fault (disaggregated gross domestic ground. A rapid visual assessment systems, Istanbul’s concentration product, infrastructure, and approach has been implemented of social and economic assets building stock inventory databases) based on the use of mobile is permanently threatened at a 1km2 spatial grid resolution to mapping, omnidirectional imaging, by potentially devastating represent economic/asset values and geographic information system earthquakes. Currently, insurance at risk to natural hazards. It also (GIS) technologies (figure 1). offered by TCIP covers more uses innovative techniques in The approach is being developed than 40 percent of the total exposure disaggregation, building in order to prioritize and speed residential housing in Istanbul. In typology distribution, and asset up the collection, storage, and the event of a large earthquake, value determination. The resultant integration of building-by-building TCIP will face the daunting task of gridded exposure database can exposure data in Central Asia. managing hundreds of thousands be convolved with hazard and of claims from customers. vulnerability components to Similarly developed exposure create CDRPs for multiple hazards. models are being tested in Introducing technologies that This approach also highlights operations by the Turkish can assist in this task is the key use of global data sets such as Catastrophe Insurance Pool to improving TCIP´s operational MODIS 500m (2010), BuREF (TCIP), which was established capacity in a post-event situation. (2012), GUF (2013), and Landscan after the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake Claims management requires (2012), which are compared to caused extensive damage and detailed building-level data, and assess issues of spatial accuracy, loss of life in Istanbul. Istanbul geospatial modelling of exposure sensitivities of the disaggregation has a population exceeding 14 is therefore being implemented, results, and the implications of million and a building stock of more including the use of mobile mapping these results for disaster risk than 800,000 buildings, and it systems to scan the exposed assets. modelling. The sensitivity of the is considered Turkey’s economic Improving claims management output is especially important center. Because of its proximity would increase the resilience of the for risk analysis of Small Island

Developing States, where a Figure 1. Snapshot of the omnidirectional camera and the buildings small systematic shift in the captured in the footage as part of the Earthquake Central Asia project. identification of inhabited areas could create a large difference in the estimated physical stock value.2

Approaches that include bottom- up data collection components are particularly useful when global data sets do not provide a realistic picture of the exposed assets, and when the exposure rapidly changes with time. In the Kyrgyz Republic, for instance, where a rapid increase in the values at risk in recent years has been observed, the Earthquake Model Central Asia project is building an exposure model that can take advantage of Source: Earthquake Model Central Asia project (top) and Google Maps (bottom).

16 What if Rome had Been Built in a Day? The Rapid Changes in Urban Exposure

impacted communities in Istanbul, Figure 2. First radar vision for Copernicus Sentinel-1A in support of flood ensuring a faster recovery of the management in Namibia. society as a whole.3 Data

Data from satellites are now making an important contribution to exposure modelling. Each year, public and private organizations launch new satellites that increase our ability to monitor and analyze activities on the Earth’s surface in more detail and with greater frequency. With the launch of Sentinel-1 (S-1A) in April 2014, Europe has entered a new era of using global, open, and sustained EO data from space for both science and risk applications. A sample image from S-1A is in figure 2.

S-1 is part of a series of operational Sentinel satellites Source: European Space Agency. developed by the European Space Agency within the framework of data sets will be important to income range. Or an area’s social the European Copernicus initiative fully leverage the power that the composition and underlying social to provide sustained observations Sentinels bring. activity could be understood by in support of a portfolio of analyzing the languages used in Copernicus services. The family of As social media infiltrates our social media; clustering of social missions includes a high-resolution daily lives, the data it generates media messaging in multiple land-monitoring mission (S-2) and contain a wealth of information foreign languages in a large urban a medium-resolution ocean- and about our society. Social media area could make it possible to land-monitoring mission (S-3) due gives us new ways to understand identify economic and temporal to be launched over the next few our daily activities, and our zones associated with tourism. years to ensure continuity with exposure to a multitude of natural In general, an awareness of previous missions such as Envisat, and other hazards. Given that language is important for mining SPOT, and Landsat. exposure modelling is concerned social networks and getting the with quantifying economic most out of the data. In the Over the next decades, the activities, we can imagine how data OpenStreetMap data for Thailand, Sentinels will routinely deliver gleaned from use of social media for example, more local information sustained EO data streams, which might be incorporated into the is shown in the Thai version than in will provide unique insight into modelling process. For example, the English version. the state of our environment, its information about a population’s evolution, and the extreme events income level could be captured Social media also has the potential and natural disasters that affect it. by analyzing use of iPhones, to be used to identify workplaces, Creating a streamlined work flow Androids, or Blackberries, each of residential buildings, entertainment that incorporates the use of these which is associated with a certain venues, etc., by creating and

17 Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum

capturing a dynamic baseline of Figure 3. Image showing people’s movement at 8 p.m. in London, captured on social people’s movements over time media platform Foursquare. (figure 3). Such an experiment is already starting in Bangladesh, where the information will be used by a Japanese team to design a flood early warning system. Finally, wearable devices are producing an explosion of shared data that are being used to create “emotional maps”—of London, San Francisco, and other cities—that offer insight into hazards, lifestyles, traffic conditions, and attitudes about city services.

Cultural heritages are irreplaceable but also vulnerable to the impacts of natural disasters. While the Source: Foursquare Labs. Used with permission; further permission required for reuse. values that inhere in them are not addressed in exposure modelling survey 500 heritage sites globally high school students are embarking methodologies, terrestrial using terrestrial laser scanning. on capturing their local cultural laser scanning of cultural Until recently, terrestrial laser heritage. Scans taken of the Kasubi heritage sites now offers a scanners were not easy to use. Tombs in Uganda before they promising approach to protecting The bottleneck was the post- burned down in 2010 will aid in the them: with a 3-D point cloud, the processing, which could be handled site’s reconstruction (figure 4). original form can be restored only by specialists. In recent years if damage occurs. An initiative the post-processing software has Challenges called CyArk 500 is collaborating evolved and is much easier to use, with various organizations to so much so that in some areas, While dynamic exposure modelling is still in its very early stages, the Figure 4. Photograph of the Kasubi Tombs before the fire, merged with the 3-D data and technologies it requires point cloud captured using terrestrial laser scanning. appear to be plentiful and growing. A plethora of global geo-data sets and EO sources is already available, and will be further stocked by upcoming space missions. At local scale, simple and efficient mobile mapping systems are increasingly capable of providing relevant data. The combination of this expanding observing capability with rapid advances in information and communication technologies (e.g., big data technologies, cloud Source: © CyArk. Used with permission; further permission required for reuse. computing, machine learning) will

18 What if Rome had Been Built in a Day? The Rapid Changes in Urban Exposure

The most important challenge will be to convert raw data into actionable information that can be used—a process we can liken to the refining of crude oil into usable products. Data provide decision makers with a Conclusions Panelists very powerful analytical tool to Dr. Rashmin Gunasekera, Senior help them better quantify, model, Dynamic exposure modelling Disaster Risk Assessment and predict, and manage environmental depends on shifting the paradigm Financing Specialist, the World Bank risks at a variety of scales in space toward a continuous, incremental Group; CDRP team (from local to global) and time assessment of risk. This type Marc Wieland, Researcher, Helmholtz (from minutes to decades). of assessment will be able to Centre Potsdam, German Research keep up with the change in the Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) Making the most of these new exposed assets (people, building Ismet Gangor, Chief Executive Officer, capabilities and technologies stock, infrastructure) instead Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool involves new challenges, of leaning on static estimates (TCIP) specifically in how we access, that—especially in economically Pierre-Philippe Mathieu, Earth discover, distribute, integrate, developing countries—promptly Observation Applications Engineer, European Space Agency mine, and exploit available data. become obsolete. Exploiting The most important challenge global and freely accessible data Mark Polyak, Vice President, Analytics, Courage Services Inc. will be to convert raw data into sources is a challenge that calls actionable information that can be for a closer interaction between Elizabeth Lee, Vice President, CyArk used—a process we can liken to risk practitioners and scientists on the refining of crude oil into usable the one hand, and civil protection Endnotes products. authorities and policy makers on the other. 1 For an engineering perspective on the challenge of addressing evolving Addressing this challenge will urban risk, see “Back to the Drawing require a mix of new skills, Board” in this publication. For use of Contributors to the session new technologies in fostering urban approaches, and international Session leads resilience to risk, see “How Might partnerships (involving for example Emerging Technology Strengthen Urban Dr. Massimiliano Pittore, Senior Resilience?” in this publication. space agencies, international Scientist, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, conventions, scientific programs, German Research Centre for 2 For a discussion of the vulnerability of funding bodies, and the private Geosciences (GFZ) Small Island Developing States, and of the strategies they use to “become big,” sector) as well as closer Dr. Keiko Saito, Disaster Risk see “Big Numbers, Small Islands, and Risk collaboration between data Management Specialist, GFDRR Pooling for Insurance” in this publication. providers and data users. In this 3 For more on risk pooling, see “Big way, it will be possible to deliver Numbers, Small States, and Risk Pooling the true value of these data sets for Insurance” in this publication. and accelerate the process of building resilient societies.

19 Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum

Photo: © Alexander20 Kolomietz | Dreamstime.com Game of Data Drones

Vica Rosario Bogaerts, Disaster Risk Management Specialist, GFDRR

Drone technology can add miles of pipelines for leaks. The significant value to efforts to make number of private companies using communities, cities, and countries drone technology is growing, and more resilient. At low cost, drones drones will soon be used by retail can be used for mapping, surveying, companies—notably the Australian 3-D modelling, and enhancing textbook rental service Zookal, search-and-rescue operations in which will start its first deliveries the aftermath of a disaster. But by drones next year, and Amazon, drones will be able to fulfill their which is also pursuing drone potential only if challenges related technology for deliveries. to legislation, safety, and privacy are sufficiently addressed. The public sector, particularly humanitarian and development The Rise of Civilian practitioners, is also starting Drones to experiment with the use of drones. Most recently, events in Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs, also the Philippines (Typhoon Haiyan in commonly known as drones) are 2013) and Bosnia and Herzegovina often associated with controversial (floods in 2014) provided the military operations. Over the last opportunity to use drone several years, however, a new technology to map the impact on generation of drones has emerged. the ground. The market for civilian drones appears to be growing rapidly as Drone Technology Today a range of industries sees the potential of drones and as drones The latest generation of civilian themselves become more versatile drones builds on developments and sophisticated. in smartphone technology, not military technology. As technology Agriculture is one of the sectors giants such as Apple and Google that have embraced drone compete for market share, they technology. In Japan, for example, invest great resources to improve 90 percent of crop dusting is sensors, processors, and batteries currently done by drones. In of smartphones—exactly the core the oil and gas industry, drones components required to build an with infrared cameras are being autopilot for a drone. In other used to monitor thousands of words, without support from

21 Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum

Table 1. Civilian vs. military drones Flight time Distance Size Civilian 15–50 minutes 1–15km 100g–15kg Military Hours–days 100s–1,000s of km Full-size aircrafts

Table 2. Rotary vs. fixed-wing drones Pros Cons

Rotary Limited to slower, shorter flights, Takes off/lands in tight locations lower coverage: up to 1km2 Hovers Less safe (heavier)

Fixed-wing Capable of quicker, longer flights, Larger take-off/landing area greater coverage: up to 12km2 per flight Cannot hover Safer (light weight) Handles stronger winds the military, civilians have been Challenges ignored. Moving forward with able to push drone technology drone technology in the service of (see table 1 for a comparison of The costs of acquiring drones managing disaster risk will require civilian and military drones). As a have gone down, and the potential significant improvements in various result, drones today are smarter, benefits of using drones are areas, including development of smaller, easier to use and, above significant. At the same time, policies and regulations related to all, a lot more affordable than they civilian use of drones poses a drone equipment (fail-safe policies), would otherwise be. Civilians can number of unique challenges. operator certification, emergency now choose between fixed-wing One challenge involves safety: a flight permit applications, and drones and rotary drones, such as drone almost collided with a US insurance for drones. Other quadcopters or other multi-bladed Airways plane near Tallahassee, areas that should be prioritized small helicopters (see table 2 for a Florida, in 2014. While this incident include the establishment of comparison of the two types). was a near miss, the absence of infrastructure required to share formalized safety programs means data collected by drones and the In addition, drone makers a real accident may happen in the short-listing of organizations have started to invest in the future. Another concern relates allowed to fly civilian drones. development of innovative to the issue of privacy. As the size software that allows users of drones continues to decrease, Contributors to the session to create high-resolution they are more likely to be used to Hendrik Bendixen, CEO and Managing georeferenced orthmosaics and monitor and track movements of Director, Anthea Technologies digital elevation models based individuals without their consent. Matthew Wade, Marcomms Manager, on the data collected by drones. A final challenge is the current senseFly Advances in digital image processing lack of any mechanism for easily Manuel B. Fiol, Fellow Research and development of increasingly sharing data collected by drones. Associate, United Nations Institute sophisticated algorithms have for Training and Research; Imagery allowed drone makers such as Moving Forward Analyst, UNOSAT senseFly to overcome the problem Harry Wood, Board Member, of putting oblique images together While civilian drones show great Humanitarian OpenStreetMap in a mosaic. Today, within a couple of potential to add value to our hours after a flight, it is possible to ability to understand and manage develop a georeferenced 3-D model disaster risk, they also pose of the physical environment. great challenges that cannot be

22 OF INTEREST

Interview

Q: You participated in the 2012 Understanding Risk Forum when it was held in Cape Town. This year you’ve joined the Forum again, flying all the way to London. Why is it important for you to be part of this Forum?

A: We are living in a global village, and certainly natural disasters know no borders. It’s important to share information about how to respond to natural disasters and how to rebuild communities afterward. I’ve come here today to share the Cape Town story. I hope to describe what we are doing, and in particular how we’re catering for a city that has been urbanized at a very rapid pace. We Patricia de Lille are the fastest-growing city in South Africa, and we have had to Mayor of Cape Town, South Africa shift our planning to deal with natural disasters.

Q: What’s your overriding impression of the Forum?

A: I think we’ve got a good combination of the partners that we need in dealing with natural disasters: government, business, NGOs, universities. It’s a good platform for sharing information. As we face new challenges, effective collaboration is key to minimizing the global impact of DRM problems.

Q: What do you make of all the representation from other countries?

A: The many dozen countries represented show that problems are the same around the world, wherever you have to deal with disasters. The only difference might be the impact or the severity of the disaster. But we all agree about the need to understand risk better.

23 Photo: Sudipto Das The Power Data of the Crowd Harnessing Communities and Opening Data

Robert Soden, Disaster Risk Management Specialist, GFDRR*

Introduction particularly decisions related to core development planning. Citing In the four years since the first the high cost of creating data, Understanding Risk Forum took the burden this cost places on place in Washington, DC, our the governments that fund data community has both witnessed creation, and the importance of and fostered significant changes in peer review, scientific communities the conduct of risk assessments. have championed sharing of raw Among these changes are the data for decades. Since the 1990s shift toward open data practices the Open Government movement and the growth of crowdsourcing has advocated open government and community mapping projects. data policies in order to encourage Together, these trends facilitate transparent governance and a far more dynamic and engaged promote citizen engagement. understanding of risk than has been possible in the past. While The World Bank launched its Open these approaches are becoming Data Initiative in 2010 with these more widespread, there is still a values in mind. While there is some need to document and learn from variation in how open data projects successful examples and further are designed and implemented, institutionalize their adoption for data to be considered “open” before they can be considered they should be both technically mature. open and legally open. Technically Background and Key open means that the data set is Concepts structured such that it can be opened and analyzed in a variety of Open data is not a new idea. software tools, while legally open Obtaining risk information—that is, means that the data are released data about underlying exposure, under a license that permits hazard, and historical loss—enables reuse and redistribution for both

*This session was organized better disaster risk management commercial and noncommercial in partnership with Google. decisions by policy makers, purposes.

25 Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum

In recent years, projects have Dominica has been working with of Hazards (NOAH) was created incorporated a number of geographic information system by the Philippine Department of strategies to make the process (GIS) technology since 1995. Science and Technology to provide of risk assessment more inclusive. Over the years, high priority communities with high-quality One strategy, embodied in the has been given to the creation data and information to inform OpenStreetMap (OSM) project, of fundamental geospatial data planning and early warning systems. is to involve new actors and sets to support transportation Project NOAH recently launched nontraditional participants in the and land-use planning, DRM, and WebSafe, a disaster impact analysis process of collecting data needed other development goals. In tool, adapted from the open for the risk assessment. Frequently 2012, over 40 representatives source InaSafe software that was called the “Wikipedia of maps,” from ministries and local developed in partnership between OSM was founded in the United nongovernmental organizations Kingdom in 2004 by software gathered to discuss improving GFDRR, AusAID, and the Indonesian developers who were frustrated spatial data management in the government. More information with restrictive licensing schemes country. Open data was identified about Project NOAH can be found at applied to much of the spatial as a key strategy for improving http://noah.dost.gov.ph/. data they were seeking to use in access to information. A subset of Open Cities. The World Bank’s their applications. OSM is now a participants in the workshop has global project with over 1.5 million since collaborated to launch an Open Cities Project supports registered users and active local open spatial data–sharing platform community mapping activities that chapters in 80 countries. It was where much of Dominica’s provide high-resolution and up-to- first used in a large-scale fashion geospatial information can be date information for disaster risk for disaster risk management accessed. The platform is based on assessment and urban planning. (DRM) following the 2010 Haiti the open source GeoNode tool and Open Cities has completed earthquake. Since then it has been is online at http://dominode.net/. projects in Dhaka, Kathmandu, incorporated into DRM projects all and Batticaloa, and is currently over the world to support disaster Project NOAH. The Philippines planning the next phase of risk assessment, preparedness, and faces significant annual activities. Each project leveraged contingency planning activities. hydrometeorological hazards and has developed a number of the OpenStreetMap platform to facilitate participation in mapping Case Studies sophisticated approaches for soliciting actionable information from schools, hospitals, and other Dominica. With the support citizens and releasing government critical facilities. More information of donors and development data and analysis to the public. The about the project can be found at agencies, the government of Nationwide Operational Assessment http://opencitiesproject.com.

The OpenDRI Field Guide In 2011 the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) launched the Open Data for Resilience Initiative (OpenDRI) to bring the philosophies and practices of the global open data movement to bear on the challenges of reducing vulnerability to natural hazards and the impacts of climate change. In the three years since, OpenDRI has partnered with governments, civil society organizations, and the private sector in over 25 countries to implement these ideas. In March of 2014, GFDRR, along with partners from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA), American Red Cross, and United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), released the OpenDRI Field Guide, a practical guide that assists those seeking to implement their own open data projects related to disaster and climate risk management. More information is available at https://www.gfdrr.org/ODRIFG.

26 The Power of the Crowd: Harnessing Communities and Opening Data

Crowdsourcing in Government As part of the session, Dr. Muki Haklay launched a new report, “Crowdsourced Geographic Information Use in Government.” This publication is the result of a six-month study conducted by University College London and GFDRR’s OpenDRI. To gain insight into patterns of adoption, successful approaches, and other key issues, the research team assessed nearly 30 cases of government usage of crowdsourced data. Among the findings of the report are these:

There are some established cases of close collaboration between government and the public, which range from land management and biodiversity monitoring to disaster response. These examples demonstrate that successful interaction is possible under certain conditions.

Many of the lessons from the early implementation of GIS technology in government hold true for volunteered geographical information (VGI) projects and can be used to ensure their successful implementation.

Where governmental data are lacking, the need for suitable data sets can lead to the initiation of VGI projects.

Technical issues are not insurmountable, so these are not the limiting factor in VGI adoption by government.

Organizational practices, regulations, and legal issues such as license conditions are much more likely to restrict VGI projects than technical issues.

The acceptance and use of VGI will be influenced by individual, organizational, business model, technical, and conceptual factors.

More information about the report can be found at http://crowdgov.wordpress.com/; a downloadable version is at https:// gfdrr.org/crowdsourced-geographic-information-use-government.

Recommendations 2. Involve participants in generate valuable lessons about community mapping projects successful project design. Rich A number of steps should be taken early. Too often, projects that aim documentation of successful to ensure that open data and to incorporate crowdsourcing or examples and the benefits they crowdsourcing continue to thrive: other forms of public engagement have generated also helps to reach out to intended participants communicate the value of open 1. Develop partnerships for only after the data collection data and community involvement in open data. As some of the process is ready to begin. To risk assessment and to encourage case studies show, open data increase local ownership of the wider adoption of these practices. and community engagement project, to ensure that the data in risk assessment require the collected are most useful to Contributors to the session involvement of a wide variety of those involved, and to increase Lyn Baron, GIS Technician, Physical experts and local actors. Data used the chances that participants will Planning Division, Dominica in risk assessment, such as building continue to contribute and use the Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco Lagmay, footprints, street networks, data once the formal project period Executive Director, Project NOAH, land use, or population density, has ended, key stakeholders should Philippines are frequently useful for other be involved as early as possible Marc Forni, Senior Disaster Risk purposes. There is therefore an during the planning phases. Management Specialist, World Bank opportunity to build strong cross- Group sector alliances to advocate for 3. Clearly document case Rebecca Moore, Engineering Manager, and implement open data efforts. studies. With a now-significant Google Earth Outreach and Earth Ensuring that a broad network of number of projects incorporating Engine participants is engaged in these open data approaches, there is Dr. Muki Haklay, Professor of processes is critical to their success an opportunity to evaluate the Geographical Information Science, and long-term sustainability. impacts of these initiatives and University College London

27 Figure 1. OpenDRI framework. Source: World Bank.

28 OF INTEREST

Open Data Challenges Workshop participants identified the following challenges associated for Resilience with the use of open data: Initiative: 1. Open data alone does not while less goes into effectively Key Challenges equal impact. communicating. This failure to invest and build capacity in effective In thinking about how to ensure communication is a significant GFDRR Innovation Lab that data have a positive impact, limiting factor in changing behavior. Google we need to keep in mind all phases Better communication would SecondMuse of the data cycle (figure 1). Stated be especially beneficial to local differently, open data does not equal communities that could benefit from impact. A positive impact arises open data. from a considered process that broadly understands how the data 4. The case for open data still will influence decisions and thus needs to be made. behavior. One of the central communication 2. Behavior is the blind spot. challenges is the case for open data. The thought of using open data This was the question explored at While workshop participants for a new or unanticipated purpose a UR Forum workshop by experts covered a wide portion of the for some still inspires anxiety. This in the fields of disaster risk, climate, framework, their experience and is in contrast to the central value and open data. Working in groups, expertise was heavily skewed proposition of open data, which is the workshop participants identified toward the technical sections of the unexpected value from usage. key challenges to the use of open data generation and interpretation. To be sure, there are a variety of data. To facilitate this exploration, Yet as many of the workshop reasons, good and bad, why people a lightweight framework (shown in discussions acknowledged, the resist open data, including effective figure 1) was used. real challenges for the community business models to support the have become less technical and quality of data, the perception that This framework reflects the more human-centered. Needs information is power, and even cycle of data to action in a real- finding and definition are critical but embarrassment over the quality of world context. Data generated underdeveloped skills, and greater data. These objections need to be from human behavior and world insight into behavior change would better understood and addressed in conditions are collected and also be helpful. The tools and data order to encourage data sharing. interpreted. Insights gained from that technical experts create will be the interpretation are implemented, more useful if they fit into existing 5. Access to data is a significant and new behaviors encouraged. decision-making work flows. challenge, but not so much a These, in turn, create new data, technical challenge anymore. which form the basis for further 3. Effective communication is a Over the last several years, tools analysis, monitoring, and evaluation. key in changing behavior. for sharing data have significantly Participants agreed that a lot of increased. What continues to work goes into “doing things,” limit data sharing is the remaining

29 OF INTEREST social and regulatory challenges, data of insufficient resolution are Even linking a descriptive report (if which range from issues involved used, the model outputs will be one exists) to data has important in sharing data between agencies unreliable and form a poor basis value. (within governments, between for decision making; users of the governments, and between data will wrongly believe that they 11. Data beyond the sensor multilateral agencies), to the understand a situation when in fact are important, too. challenge of getting the data to they do not. Some of the most communities, to the legal and critical data include the following: While physically sensed and modelled data such as risk maps regulatory frameworks that may Fundamental data sets, such and elevation are critical, there complicate or hinder sharing. as high-resolution imagery and is a whole class of data that is elevation data with license to 6. Sometimes things are too currently undervalued and not create derivative works that may easy. The proliferation of data often integrated into decision be shared platforms and tools. making. This is the experience of Global databases for local communities. There is a need As building and deploying digital assets (human, ecosystem, to better understand, systematically tools has grown easier, tools (of infrastructure, etc.) that can be collect, and integrate these data to various quality) and data portals used to understand, quantify, and create deeper insights. Open does have proliferated. In most cases manage climate and disaster risks not just mean accessible. this growth works to fragment Past disaster damage data effort and decrease the benefits of 12. There is more to being open to com-municate impact and collaboration and scale. It also takes than just being open. energy away from creating higher- validate models value products. Open does not just mean accessible. 9. We may be collecting the Openness enables participation. wrong data. If we are to truly benefit from 7. Sometimes things are too open data, we need to embrace hard. The complexity of critical The challenge of collecting all useful collaboration and increase disaster outputs. data is overwhelming. There is participation by involving key still little consensus on which data stakeholders at every step of the While building tools has grown sets are most useful in supporting process. This approach increases easier, using tools is often not actual decision making. We need to stakeholders’ sense of ownership straightforward. The complexity understand users and their needs and promotes understanding of certain disaster products is in order to identify high-value data between participants, which leads to a critical challenge facing the sets and inform the design of tools better outcomes. community. Complexity might be that use that data. intrinsic—for example, poor handling 13. It is insufficient to simply of uncertainty in data products, or 10. Data are not enough! invest in data; we need to the propagation of that uncertainty invest in people. in the calculations. Or it might be Metadata—the descriptive data a function of poor communication about the data of interest—greatly To ensure that data have a positive about fitness for use. increase data’s usability and impact, expertise and experience accessibility. A risk map, for example, must exist at all points within 8. There are key data still missing. has little use by itself; but once the the data cycle at the local level. critical descriptive metadata (such Said another way, in addition to Models are very sensitive to data as return period) are available, the investing in data, we need to quality. If the wrong data or map becomes much more valuable. invest in people to collect, design,

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analyze, communicate, and interpret them back was the lack of clear Robert Soden, Disaster Risk that data. Without these key direction and understanding of how Management Specialist, GFDRR competencies we will never fully or where to contribute. Ideally, as Dave Thau, Senior Developer Advocate, benefit from the promise of open the community develops a shared Google data. vision of its role and the challenges Presentations it faces, situations of this sort will Rebecca Moore, Engineering Manager, 14. How do we know when become less common. Google Earth Outreach and Earth Engine we get there? Paolo Gamba, Associate Professor of Conclusions Telecommunications, University of Pavia To make a positive impact, the ability David Lallemant, Graduate Fellow, to measure that impact is crucial. Clearly articulated challenges Stanford University Thus clear objectives and meaningful provide a practical rallying point for Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco Lagmay, measures of achievement are critical members of the community. There Executive Director, Project NOAH, remains room to refine, validate, and for the success of this community Philippines and its work. Participants stressed better understand them, but we Phil Tickle, Business Development that part of measuring impact has have made a good start. The bigger and Research Manager, Cooperative to do with managing expectations, task is to begin to meet these Research Centre for Spatial since success moves at different challenges. Ideally partnerships like Information, Australia the Understanding Risk community paces around the cycle. Creating Jo Mummery, Special Adviser, data and providing access to it are will help us—and inspire us—to Climate Science, Department of the relatively quick processes, while advance.. Environment, Australia developing insight takes more time, Marc Forni, Senior Disaster Risk and behavior change even longer. Contributors to the session Management Specialist, World Bank These differences need to be kept in Group Session organizers mind when impact is measured. Guy Schumann, Researcher, NASA Jet Christiaan Adams, Developer Advocate, Propulsion Laboratory Google 15. Resources are available for Liz Hughes, Chief Executive, Map Action well-defined problems. Steph Bannister, Associate, SecondMuse Several different resources— Stuart Gill, Partner, SecondMuse both human and technical—were Dr. Alanna Simpson, Senior Disaster available among participants and Risk Management Specialist, GFDRR were ready to deploy. Holding

Further resources

OpenDRI email list, http://opendri.email. M. Haklay, V. Antoniou, S. Basiouka, R. Soden, and P. Mooney, “Crowdsourced Geographic Information Use in Government,” Report to GFDRR (World Bank), London, 2014, https://gfdrr.org/crowdsourced-geographic-information- use-government. Open Cities website at http://opencitiesproject.com/. InaSafe website at http://inasafe.org/.

31 Tracks of all known Atlantic tropical cyclones from 1851 to 2012. Background image from NASA. Tracking data for storms is from the National Hurricane Center. Risk Modelling

Mission Impossible: Using Global Flood Risk Assessments for Local Decision Making [page 35]

Plug and Play: What Will It Take to Connect the Modelling Tools? [page 41] Photo: Robert Churchill Mission Impossible? Risk Modelling

Using Global Flood Risk Assessments for Local Decision Making

Dr. Peter Salamon, Scientific Project Officer, Joint Research Centre, European Commission Dr. Philip J. Ward, Senior Researcher, Institute for Environmental Studies and Amsterdam Global Change Institute, VU University Amsterdam Dr. Hessel C. Winsemius, Senior Hydrologist, Deltares

The Challenge of The Benefits of Global Improving Flood Risk Flood Risk Management Management Worldwide Tools

In terms of human impact, Several scientific organizations frequency, and economic loss, have recently started to develop floods are among the biggest comprehensive global flood risk natural disasters worldwide. management tools, ranging Climate change, population from satellite monitoring1 and increase, urbanization, and forecasting systems2 to flood land-use changes continue to hazard and risk assessment contribute to flood risks globally, models.3 Those tools can especially in coastal cities. provide valuable information to international aid organizations Minimizing the impact of floods (e.g., International Red Cross/Red requires (1) awareness about the Crescent Movement, World Food existing risk of flooding; (2) expert Programme), global financing and knowledge to quantify the risk development institutions and plan prevention/preparedness (e.g., World Bank), or global measures; (3) appropriate legal (re)insurers, allowing them to plan and administrative frameworks to and to allocate resources more establish risk management plans; efficiently. In addition, in regions and (4) economic investments. where local flood risk information Unfortunately, some or all of those is either incomplete or absent, requirements are missing in many global flood risk management parts of the world. tools can fill the gap, or at least be

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complementary. Finally, global flood Figure 1. Sample hindcast derived from the GloFAS online platform for September risk management tools can foster 1, 2012. The red gradient indicates the estimated probability of a flood with a return awareness raising, knowledge period greater than five years occurring within 10 days after the forecast. A flood hit the area between Kitgum and Lira (dark red on the map) a few days later and led to exchange, and data sharing, thus the displacement of 15,000 people. strengthening efforts to reduce local disaster risk.

The floods affecting southeast Europe in 2014 offer a very recent example of how a large-scale flood risk tool can improve local decision making. Between May 14 and 18, the heaviest rain in 120 years of recordkeeping caused severe floods in Serbia and in Bosnia and Herzegovina, forcing hundreds of thousands from their homes. In this case, the European Flood Awareness System,4 a continental- scale flood early warning system, provided warnings with lead times of more than three to four days to national authorities and to the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (EMS).5 The Copernicus EMS, which covers a Source: GloFAS, www.globalfloods.eu. wide range of natural and man- Netherlands Meteorological (see figure 1) with funding from made emergency situations around Institute, and VU University the German Federal Ministry the world, tasked satellites to Amsterdam are assessing the for Economic Cooperation and acquire high-resolution images of possibility of automatically Development, using a global flood the areas in those countries that triggering emergency finance early warning system. Eventually would potentially be most affected based on forecast warnings of it could be scaled up in disaster- by flooding. These data were weather extremes.6 With the goal prone areas worldwide to make used to generate detailed flood of improving and increasing the disaster risk reduction efforts extent maps as early as May 18, impact of humanitarian action, more effective. and the maps were then used by such a forecast-based financing local rescue teams and emergency system would match certain managers. Examples of Global Flood thresholds of forecast probability Risk Management Tools of disaster with appropriate The benefits of global-scale actions; standard operating The benefits of global flood risk flood risk management tools can procedures would be in place management tools, the growing also be seen in the forecast- that embodied a clear mandate availability of high-quality global based financing of humanitarian to act when these thresholds data sets, and the increase in actions. Researchers from the were crossed but before disaster computer power have led to Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate struck. The system is currently improvements in tools’ spatial Centre, German Red Cross, Royal being piloted in Togo and Uganda resolution and model output

36 Mission Impossible: Using Global Flood Risk Assessments for Local Decision Making

The goal of GLOFRIS is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments.

quality. The following examples hydrodynamic model for an University of Bristol-SSBN team do not provide a comprehensive improved assessment of flood is working to integrate global list of all available tools, but they hazard. Scientists at the University flood hazard data into cloud-based

illustrate the variety currently of Bristol, UK, and SSBN Ltd. platforms such as Google Earth. Risk Modelling being developed. have employed highly efficient wave-routing and flood-spreading GLObal Flood Risk with IMAGE A Global 1km Resolution algorithms with global terrain Scenarios (GLOFRIS) Hydrodynamic Model 7 data, which were specifically GLOFRIS is a framework for global Currently available global post-processed for hydrodynamic river flood risk assessment that 8 flood hazard maps consider modelling, along with other can be applied in either current the hydrological processes global data sets (river network, or future conditions.10 The goal 9 leading to the flooding only in river geometry, global flow is to establish flood hazard and a limited way and make the return periods, flood defenses) to impact estimates at a high enough produce a global 1km flood hazard implicit assumption that the resolution to allow for their model that is then downscaled approach is transferable across combination into a risk estimate, to 90m resolution (see figure 2). hydrologically and hydraulically which can be used for strategic In collaboration with the Google diverse areas. However, tools global flood risk assessments. Earth Engine team and NASA’s and more importantly data now The framework estimates hazard Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the 2 exist to develop a truly global at a resolution of 1km using global forcing data sets of the Figure 2. Part of a 90m resolution flood hazard map produced by the University of current or future climate, a global Bristol, UK, and SSBN Ltd. by downscaling from a 1km resolution global hydrodynamic hydrological model, a global flood- model. The map shows the area at risk from fluvial and pluvial flooding with an annual routing model, and an inundation probability of 0.01 (1-in-100-year return period) for Phnom Penh, Cambodia. downscaling routine. The risk component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g., damage, affected GDP, and affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g., annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population). GLOFRIS’s usefulness for decision makers has been shown in several studies, including World Bank studies that rapidly assessed and mapped current and/or future flood risk in Nigeria, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia.

Source: © University of Bristol and SSBN Ltd. Used with permission; further permission required for reuse.

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In its test phase, GloFAS was able to predict floods up to two weeks in advance. Currently, further research and development are ongoing to create an operational tool for a wide variety of decision makers.

The Global Flood Awareness the limitations are recognized and is the validation of the results, for System (GloFAS) communicated, and the models example the economic impacts or are used to answer appropriate the number of affected people or GloFAS is a global flood forecasting questions. fatalities. While a few databases system developed by the Joint of reported flood impacts do exist Research Centre of the European One major issue is that current (EM-DAT, for example15), they Commission and the European global digital elevation models generally contain little information Centre for Medium-Range (DEMs) cannot resolve the detail on the location of flooding, Weather Forecasts.11 It couples of terrain features that control except for the country. Efforts to state-of-the art ensemble 13 flooding. More effective flood strengthen such databases are weather predictions with a hazard maps could be created clearly needed. distributed hydrological model. by obtaining high-resolution With its global-scale setup, it stereo images from satellites for Partnering for Better provides downstream countries inclusion in flood modelling using Management of Flood with information on upstream supercomputers. First efforts river conditions and produces are ongoing and show promising Impacts Globally continental and global overviews. results,14 but further work to In order to fully exploit the It has produced daily flood adapt the high-resolution DEMs to potential of the global flood forecasts in a pre-operational hydrodynamic modelling is needed. manner since June 2011, and has forecasting, monitoring, and impact assessment systems shown its potential during the Moreover, many global-scale river currently being developed and to floods in Pakistan in August 2013 flood risk models have assessed tackle remaining challenges, the and Sudan in September 2013. flood risk under the assumption Global Flood Partnership (GFP) that no flood protection measures was established in 2014.15 The In its test phase, this global (dikes, reservoir control dams, GFP is an informal network of forecasting system was able to retention areas) are in place. In scientists and practitioners from predict floods up to two weeks reality many regions, especially public, private, and international in advance. Currently, further those prone to flooding, are research and development are protected by infrastructural organizations interested in global ongoing to create an operational measures up to certain design flood monitoring, modelling, and tool for a wide variety of decision standards. Efforts are now under forecasting. It seeks to provide makers. way to develop global data sets of operational, globally applicable protection measures, and indeed flood forecasting and monitoring Challenges12 simulations with GLOFRIS have tools and services, complementary already been completed in which to national capabilities, by linking Several challenges remain in preliminary estimates of flood all the different models together global flood risk modelling. Global protection measures are included. to cover the entire disaster risk flood risk assessment models These results will be made available management cycle. The GFP also are coarse by their nature, and shortly to both the research and serves as a forum to bridge the necessarily represent both physical policy-making communities. gap between science and and socioeconomic processes in operations, thus bringing together simplified ways. This simplification Another challenge for global or the scientific community, service need not be a problem, as long as large-scale flood risk assessments providers (satellite and weather),

38 Mission Impossible: Using Global Flood Risk Assessments for Local Decision Making national flood and emergency Endnotes Water Resources Research 48 (2012), DOI: 10.1029/2012WR012514. management authorities, 1 See the website for the Global Disaster humanitarian organizations, and Alert and Coordination System at http:// 8 See C. A. Baugh, P. D. Bates, G. Schumann, www.gdacs.org/flooddetection/; or see and M. A. Trigg, “SRTM Vegetation donors. the University of Maryland’s Global Flood Removal and Hydrodynamic Modeling Monitoring System at http://flood.umd. Accuracy,” Water Resources Research edu/. 49 (2013): 5276–89, doi:10.1002/ Currently, the GFP is in a two-year wrcr.20412. pilot phase, which is allowing the 2 See the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) website at www.globalfloods.eu. 9 See D. Yamazaki, F. O’Loughlin, M. A. partners to align their activities Trigg, Z. F. Miller, T. M. Pavelsky, and P. 3 See P. J. Ward, B. Jongman, F. Sperna in a coordinated manner and D. Bates, “Development of the Global Weiland, A. Bouwman, R. Van Beek, M. F. Width Database for Large Rivers,” Water Risk Modelling to develop specifications and P. Bierkens, W. Ligtvoet, and H. C. Winse- Resources Research 50 (2014): 3467–80, terms of reference for the GFP’s mius, “Assessing Flood Risk at the Global doi:10.1002/2013WR014664. Scale: Model Setup, Results, and Sensi- different components. The pilot tivity,” Environmental Research Letters 10 GLOFRIS is described in Ward et al., “Assessing Flood Risk at the Global Scale.” phase will be used to assess 8: 044019 (2013), doi:10.1088/1748- 9326/8/4/044019; and H. C. Winsemius, 11 See the Global Flood Awareness System the value that the GFP adds to L. P. H. Van Beek, B. Jongman, P. J. Ward, (GloFAS) website at www.globalfloods.eu. flood preparedness and response and A. Bouwman, “A Framework for Global 12 For discussions of the challenges of flood River Flood Risk Assessments,” Hydrology activities as well as to estimate resilience, see “Can Flood Resilience Be and Earth System Sciences 17 (2013): Measured?” and “The Role of Ecosystems the feasibility and cost of a full 1871–92, http://www.hydrol-earth-syst- in Reducing Risk” in this publication. implementation. sci.net/17/1871/2013/hess-17-1871- 2013.html. 12 See G. J.-P. Schumann, P. Bates, J. Neal, and K. Andreadis, “Fight Floods on a 4 See the European Flood Awareness Global Scale,” Nature 507 (2014): 169, Contributors to the session System website at www.efas.eu. doi: 10.1038/507169e. 5 See the Copernicus EMS website at Professor Paul Bates, Professor 13 Maps currently available using this http://emergency.copernicus.eu/. of Hydrology and Head of School in approach are shown at http://www. Geographical Sciences, University of 6 See E. Coughlan de Perez, astrium-geo.com/worlddem/. B. van den Hurk, M. van Aalst, B. Jongman, Bristol 14 EM-DAT is available at http://www.emdat. T. Klose, and P. Suarez, “Forecast-Based be/. Dr. Tom de Groeve, Senior Scientist, Financing: An Approach for Catalyzing Joint Research Centre, European Humanitarian Action Based on Extreme 15 See the GFP website at http://portal. Weather and Climate Forecasts,” Discus- gdacs.org/Global-Flood-Partnership. Commission sion Paper, Natural Hazards and Earth Brenden Jongman, PhD researcher, System Sciences 2 (2014): 3193–3218, Institute for Environmental Studies, www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci-discuss. net/2/3193/2014/. VU University Amsterdam 7 For the algorithms, see J. Neal, G. Dr. Maarten van Aalst, Director, Red Schumann, and P. Bates, “A Subgrid Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre Channel Model for Simulating River Hydraulics and Floodplain Inundation Dr. Alanna Simpson, Senior Disaster over Large and Data Sparse Areas,” Risk Management Specialist, GFDRR

Further resources

Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) website at www.globalfloods.eu. P. J. Ward, B. Jongman, F. Sperna Weiland, A. Bouwman, R. Van Beek, M. F. P. Bierkens, W. Ligtvoet, and H. C. Winsemius, “Assessing Flood Risk at the Global Scale: Model Setup, Results, and Sensitivity,” Environmental Research Letters 8: 044019 (2013), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044019. Global Flood Partnership website at http://portal.gdacs.org/Global-Flood-Partnership. E. Coughlan de Perez, B. van den Hurk, M. van Aalst, B. Jongman, T. Klose, and P. Suarez, “Forecast-Based Financing: An Approach for Catalyzing Humanitarian Action Based on Extreme Weather and Climate Forecasts,” Discussion Paper, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 2 (2014): 3193–3218, www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/2/3193/2014/. G. J.-P. Schumann, P. Bates, J. Neal, and K. Andreadis, “Fight Floods on a Global Scale,” Nature 507 (2014): 169, doi: 10.1038/507169e.

39 Photo: David McNew/Thinkstock.com Plug and Play What Will It Take to Connect the Modelling Tools? Risk Modelling Ian Branagan, Chief Risk Officer and Senior Vice President, RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. Dr. James Daniell, Research Scientist, Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Matthew Foote, Head of Exposure and Catastrophe Management, Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Dr. Rashmin Gunasekera, Senior Disaster Risk Assessment and Financing Specialist, World Bank Group Dr. Richard Murnane, Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist, GFDRR Professor John Rees, Risk Research Coordinator, Research Councils UK

Introduction Because extreme events have serious ramifications, there is avid As population and wealth increase, interest across a variety of sectors so does the risk to property in quantifying current and future and lives from perils such as risk. Currently, the best way to earthquakes, tropical cyclones, and quantify catastrophe risk is with a floods. The overlap between areas catastrophe risk model (cat model). where these hazards are frequent Cat models integrate scientific, and severe and where the largest engineering, and socioeconomic knowledge into a unified package increases in population and wealth that helps users understand are expected—near coasts, risk. As illustrated in figure 1 and along rivers, and in mountainous described further in the box, cat regions—exacerbates risk further. models typically have four main Anthropogenically driven changes components: hazard, exposure, in climate are also likely to alter vulnerability, and loss. The origin of the risk landscape by changing cat models in the global insurance the distribution of risk from and reinsurance industry—and certain hazards (such as storm their continuing use by this surge, which will extend farther industry—has influenced not inland due to rising sea levels) only the design and calibration of and by leading to more intense models, but also the community of precipitation and stronger winds. knowledgeable users and the focus

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Cat Models

Catastrophe risk models can be divided into four components: hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and loss. The hazard component is used to characterize the frequency, intensity, and spatial distribution of a peril. In some cases the hazard component can include secondary perils associated with the primary peril (such as liquefaction and fire following from earthquakes or storm surge produced by tropical cyclones). A hazard catalog comprises a suite of synthetic events representing plausible scenarios for a peril. Empirical observations from historical events are combined with theory and expert judgment to form the foundation for simulating the range of feasible peril events that are collected in the hazard catalog.

Depending on the purpose of a risk analysis, the exposure component may account for people, property, services, livelihoods, and the environment exposed to a hazard. Typical exposure-related information includes the location and replacement costs of the exposed assets. More complex risk analyses may require information such as date of construction and structural characteristics of a building, or socioeconomic data such as age, gender, and income of a population.

The vulnerability component accounts for the response of the exposure to the hazards generated by an event. Vulnerability functions are used to estimate a variety of phenomena, including damage to structures and their contents, injuries and fatalities, reductions in a region’s gross domestic product, impacts on agricultural production, and the amount of time required for rebuilding.

The loss component is used to estimate the monetary impacts and/or loss of life produced by a peril event as well as statistics such as average annual loss and exceedance probabilities. Models used by the insurance industry also account for insurance- related factors such as deductibles, limits, quota shares, and layers.

for ongoing investment in model The effort to make plug and play Making Progress on developments. Nonetheless, these a reality will entail at a minimum Plug and Play: Some models offer robust frameworks the development of standards Preliminaries and approaches that provide a for interoperability and the starting point for a community- acceptance of these standards To make progress on the wide open modelling approach. by the modelling community. development of plug and play, the Given the diversity of that risk modelling community will need Part of truly understanding one’s community (spanning disciplines, to reach consensus on a number of risk is quantifying the uncertainty developers, and users) and of the issues, beginning with the definition in the output generated by cat models themselves (which can of “plug and play.” Does the models. A range of factors (efficient be proprietary or public, open term have a relatively restricted pricing of reinsurance, Solvency II source or closed), the effort connotation? Does plug and play regulations, the cost of mitigation will likely be a complex one that merely imply, for example, that a projects, as well as others) requires careful planning. If model can accept exposure data makes better assessment of this the effort is successful, model in a specific format and produce uncertainty desirable. An intriguing users will have access to an output in a standard format? Or approach to assessing uncertainty array of model components, data is the term understood to involve in cat models involves developing libraries, and visualization tools more sophisticated capabilities, the ability to “plug and play”—that in a fully interoperable plug- such as having a single vulnerability is, to exchange components among and-play environment, in which component that can easily be models to assess how various views risk information can be shared used with multiple, perhaps of hazard and vulnerability affect effectively and confidence in model independently developed, hazard model results. application and output is high. components for a single peril?

42 Plug and Play: What Will It Take to Connect the Modelling Tools?

Figure 1. Schematic depicting the four major components of a catastrophe risk model (hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and loss) Hazard along with some features associated • Occurrence probability with each component. For exposure, • Spatial distribution • Intensity the features are generally provided • Duration Vulnerability Loss by users or derived from public • Structural damage • Number of lives or proprietary data sets. The • Contents damage • Replacement costs hazard examples are features that Exposure • Loss of life • % GDP Risk Modelling characterize a hazard event that • Location • Business interruption • Insured loss may cause damage to the exposure. • Construction The vulnerability examples illustrate • Age different types of impacts that can • Occupancy be caused by a hazard event. The loss examples illustrate the types of loss associated with a hazard event.

Another seemingly simple issue uncertainty using an ensemble of models capable of site-specific that on reflection is more model results—just as there is a analyses, to aggregate models complex is the definition of the case for letting the interpretation dealing with spatially aggregated risk modelling community itself. of the results from multiple models exposure and spatially averaged Does the community include remain an ad-hoc exercise. We perils, or to both. While a suite local people, homeowners, also need to think through some of sophisticated detailed models administrators, and corporate of the pitfalls of the capability. Will is available for many perils and risk managers? Or is it limited to multiple hazard and/or vulnerability regions, the global risk-financing regulators, emergency managers, components allow users to better problem being faced by the international agencies, insurers, quantify uncertainty and perhaps disaster risk management and reinsurers? The more inclusive price risk—or will it instead confuse community will require this the community, the broader the them with too much information? aggregate view to be effective spectrum of its requirements—and Such considerations raise yet more across perils and at a global the harder it will be for a single fundamental questions of how to geographic level. standard/approach to adequately develop, maintain, and assess the meet these requirements. competencies of cat model users Ideally, plug-and-play model and providers to ensure successful components would offer decision Other fundamental issues that interoperability and correct makers a powerful tool. But not all require consideration, if not decision making. Clearly, successful users will understand the different resolution, are related to the interoperability, and the adoption model components such that they purpose and benefits of plug-and- of standards across communities, will be able to create a customized play capability in risk models. We will be achieved only if there is an view of their risk. It is not unusual need to think about the questions incentive to work collectively. This is for users to rely on current model plug and play is meant to answer, as much a hearts and minds exercise results as “truth” or to overestimate and why the questions are being as a technological challenge. the results’ precision and reliability. asked in the first place. There is a This problem will not be alleviated by case to be made for developing a Other preliminary considerations using open source models. widely agreed-upon methodology include whether the plug-and-play for better understanding standard would apply to detailed

43 Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum

The effort to make plug The standards define how a model the private sector, which develops and play a reality will accepts input data and provides proprietary models, to model users entail at a minimum the output data. OpenMI is now an in developing countries, who are development of standards OGC (Open Geospatial Consortium) limited to freely available models. for interoperability standard. Another possible Another issue concerns adopting and the acceptance of approach for using multiple or extending existing standards, these standards by the components within a single which are diverse and do not modelling community. platform is to define a standard serve all users equally well: some computational framework, such standards, such as UNICEDE, as is done by OASIS. OASIS are widely used by the insurance Tools and Platforms standards impose rules that industry and are open, while others Available for Risk models must follow if they are to are de facto standards exemplified by the (closed) exposure formats Modelling play in the sandbox. for proprietary models. The diverse Perhaps the rate-limiting step in a A fundamental step toward interests of model users and move toward interoperability will developing plug and play is an developers of proprietary models, be reaching agreement on what open access models, and open awareness of existing tools and standards risk model developers source models make unanimity platforms as well as innovations should adopt to promote unlikely. It’s not clear whether that are expected to become interoperability. For example, what something akin to majority rule available in the future. A wind speed averaging time should will be sufficient for a successful presentation during the session be used for sustained winds? implementation of plug and play. In that summarized existing, Should all winds be provided as all likelihood, though, the various nonproprietary models offered gusts in open terrain? What factors motivating a common desire important information about frequencies should be used to to better quantify and understand tools and platforms. In addition, specify spectral acceleration risk will be strong enough to drive a detailed analysis of existing due to an earthquake? Without a successful effort to implement a open source and open access agreement on such technical plug-and-play capability. models can be found on the Global details, a simple combination of Facility for Disaster Reduction and model components will produce Recovery website (see “Further The Value of Assessing spurious results. resources” below). Uncertainty: The Example of Storm Building the Community Frequency’s Role Rate-Limiting That Will Build Plug- Factors That Inhibit and-Play An example of the potential value Interoperability that could be derived through plug How can we build the community and play is the response of modelled There is no real technical problem that will successfully develop plug- losses to an insurer’s portfolio of with making plug-and-play model and-play standards? residential homes in Florida (figure components. The interaction 2). The losses produced by each of components from different While we can’t yet answer this model are relatively similar and might models can be seen for example question, we do know several suggest that both hurricane hazard in OpenMI, an open protocol that issues that must be considered and the vulnerability of homes in facilitates two-way exchange of for this effort to go forward. One Florida are quite well understood. data between models. OpenMI issue is managing the desires, However, as shown in the figure, a gives a model free range to play in expectations, and capacities of a relatively simple change—switching a “sandbox” and run as developed. spectrum of agents—ranging from the storm frequencies between

44 Plug and Play: What Will It Take to Connect the Modelling Tools?

Figure 2. An example of results generated when the storm frequencies Consistency can mask uncertainty of two cat models are switched with Vendor models for this real Florida one another. The solid lines depict loss portfolio are reasonably consistent. exceedance curves produced by two This consistency hides substantive model differences in frequency, vulnerability, hurricane cat models that analyzed and physical hazard models. a portfolio of residential homes in an insurer’s portfolio. The occurrence of 4x storms contained in the hazard catalog Loss ($) is assigned a frequency that varies as a Risk Modelling function of intensity. The dotted lines show the changes in loss exceedance curves when the frequencies are switched but all other model components remain the same. 10 100 1000 Source: © RenaissanceRe. Used with Return period (years) permission; further permission required for reuse. Model A Original Model B Original Model A with Model B Frequencies Model B with Model A Frequencies model A and model B— can create Conclusion Contributors to the session a large shift in model results. The Rowan Douglas, Chair, Willis Research storm frequencies are a function of The number of open access, open Network, Willis Group source, and proprietary hazard intensity, with the frequency falling Denise McKenzie, Executive Director, as intensity increases. Importantly, and risk modelling tools and Communications and Outreach, Open the storm frequencies will be software packages has grown Geospatial Consortium derived from a common set of data, rapidly in response to a pressing Dr. Hessel Winsemius, Senior the historical record of tropical need to understand risk. A possible Hydrologist, Deltares cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean. One new avenue for growth is the Dr. Scott Steedman, Director of explanation for the difference is development of the ability to mix Standards, BSI and match model components that the expert judgment used to Dr. Nicola Ranger, Climate Science develop the storm catalog and other across models. This plug-and- Adviser, UK Department for model components can result in play approach will provide new International Development “overtuning” when calibrating the insights into the uncertainty in Dr. Greg Holland, Director, NCAR Earth model to the historical loss record. model results. Agreeing on which System Laboratory, National Center This overtuning can hide the true standards to adopt as part of for Atmospheric Research uncertainty by inducing consistency plug-and-play capability will require Dr. Alanna Simpson, Senior Disaster in model results. support from the community of Risk Management Specialist, GFDRR risk model developers and users as well as from decision makers.

Further resources

GFDRR, Understanding Risk: Review of Open Source and Open Access Software Packages Available to Quantify Risk from Natural Hazards (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2014), https://www.gfdrr.org/RASoftwareReview. GFDRR, Understanding Risk in an Evolving World: Emerging Best Practices in Natural Disaster Risk Assessment (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2014), https://www.gfdrr.org/RAReferenceGuide. OpenMI website at http://www.openmi.org/. OASIS website at http://www.oasislmf.org/. 45 Photo: Songquan Deng Risk Finance and Insurance

Worth Your Money? What Risk Models and Economic Models Tell Us about the Development Impact of Insurance and Financial Protection [page 49]

Models Make Markets: How Catastrophe Risk Models Facilitate New Systems of Risk Transfer, Risk Pooling, and Risk Reduction [page55]

Big Numbers, Small States, and Risk Pooling for Insurance [page 59]

47 Photo: irapeppercorninternationalRomoloTavani48 Worth Your Money? What Risk Models and Economic Models Tell Us about the Development Impact of Insurance and Financial Protection

Dr. Daniel J. Clarke, Senior Disaster Risk Finance and Insurance Specialist, World Bank Group

Introduction the information produced by interventions across policy probabilistic risk models likewise areas act upon and improve Risk Finance and Insurance Financial protection mechanisms must be complemented with them. Only by comprehensively can support timely, well-targeted economic data. In an effort working across priority areas government action in the to develop a methodology for can a government build financial aftermath of a disaster, helping evaluating the true benefits resilience throughout society. For the government finance recovery of financial protection, risk example, improving the take-up and reconstruction without taking modellers, insurance experts, of agricultural insurance can resources away from development and economists are beginning strengthen one or two of these programs. to explore how probabilistic risk characteristics for farmers and models and economic models can herders, but such an intervention Following in the footsteps of a be reconciled. would have to be integrated handful of pioneering countries, with sovereign DRFI in order to more and more governments (and Disaster risk financing and advance all characteristics needed donor agencies) are looking to invest insurance (DRFI) can contribute to for financial resilience. Similarly, in financial protection to safeguard improving five characteristics that DRFI projects rarely tackle just development gains. Yet the evidence together build financial resilience one of these building blocks. about the impact, effectiveness, and across society: appropriate Insurance of public assets, for efficiency of such programs remains risk information, ownership of example, seeks to provide the limited. Very few evaluations of risk, cost of capital, timeliness required capital, but it will also financial protection programs exist, of post-disaster financing, and improve the speed at which this and those that do exist typically do discipline (see figure 1 and text money is available, put a price on not provide insights into the impacts box). These characteristics are not risk, and push the government of programs on the poor, or model outcomes of one specific project toward more transparency these impacts in a probabilistic or intervention but an integrated and discipline in public financial setting. set of features that can support management. each other to strengthen financial To fully understand and capture resilience. Background and the poverty and development Concepts benefits of financial protection, In developing countries these it is crucial to understand risk, characteristics are usually The increasing frequency and exposure, and vulnerability; underdeveloped, and DRFI severity of hazard events

49 Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum

has forced governments to Figure 1. How DRFI can contribute to financial resilience. consider new ways of meeting the financial consequences of natural disasters. This growing interest in implementing sovereign DRFI programs has resulted in tremendous growth across the world in the number and type of financial and budgetary instruments available (figure 2), ranging from disaster reserve funds and lines of contingent credit to insurance instruments. However, evidence as to which sovereign DRFI strategies are most cost-effective relative to their impact on development and disaster-affected individuals remains limited. To meet the need for evidence on this question, the UK Department for International Source: World Bank-GFDRR Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program, 2014. Development, the World Bank, and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery have Five Characteristics that Build Financial Resilience partnered to improve evaluation across Society and evidence for sovereign DRFI Appropriate risk information. Appropriate risk information allows decision programs. The project, which makers to assess the underlying price of risk, and clarify costs and benefits of began in 2013 and is expected investing in risk reduction or risk financing. to run to 2016, will design, test, Ownership of risk. Clarifying who is responsible for risk—that is, clearly and finalize a framework for establishing the contingent liability of the national and subnational quantitative ex ante appraisal of government, donors, the private sector, and households—overcomes sovereign DRFI programs, both challenges such as the Samaritan’s Dilemma. to assess the likely effectiveness, Cost of capital. Sufficient access to capital is necessary for effective efficiency, and impact of current emergency response and reconstruction as well as for investment in risk and potential programs, and to reduction and prevention. Different sources of money come with different generate new evidence in this area. costs.

Timeliness of post-disaster financing. Post-disaster funds need to be DRFI Impact Appraisal available at the appropriate time following a disaster. In the aftermath of a major disaster, the government will not require the money for the entire Project reconstruction program at once. Rapid response is crucial in the aftermath of a disaster to limit humanitarian costs. Extreme disaster events are by nature rare, and any backward- Discipline. Disaster risk financing helps governments and stakeholders looking evaluation methodology plan in advance of a disaster and agree ex ante on rules and processes for budget mobilization and execution. This approach creates greater discipline, relying solely on recent historical transparency, and accountability in post-disaster spending. disaster experience is unlikely to reflect future disaster risk accurately. The project therefore

50 Worth Your Money? What Risk Models and Economic Models Tell Us about the Development Impact of Insurance

Figure 2. Sovereign DRFI around the world.

Mexico: Philippines: FONDEN fund, Ethiopia: catastrophe Caribbean DRFI Strategy, Scalable social Climate and bond Catastrophe safety net Disaster Resilience African Union, Risk Insurance Fund, sovereign African Risk Facility risk transfer Capacity Indian Ocean Islands: Exploring regional risk pooling initiative Colombia: DRFI strategy, insurance of Malawi: Indonesia: public assets and Drought risk Exploring

concessions management sovereign EQ risk Risk Finance and Insurance transfer

Uruguay: Kenya: Seychelles: Insurance for the impact of drought/ Agricultural Contingent credit oil prices on insurance (Cat DDO) Pacific hydropower Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Source: World Bank-GFDRR DRFI Program, 2014. Initiative

takes a forward-looking impact quantitative IA tool that does the programs on development and appraisal (IA) approach (figure following: poverty that are meaningful for 3), evaluating selected sovereign decision makers DRFI programs based on a large Takes into account the Project outputs have been number of simulated scenarios. probabilistic nature of the designed to enable decision Probabilistic disaster risk models impact of sovereign DRFI makers to understand when will be used to present the relative programs and avoids being too sovereign DRFI programs are likelihood and developmental heavily influenced by recent (and when they are not) effective consequences of different events. disaster events components of a comprehensive These will be estimated drawing Quantifies trade-offs between approach to managing the financial on theory and evidence from many of the key dimensions of risk associated with disasters. public finance, financial economics, sovereign DRFI programs actuarial science, development Generates results that are This project will include conceptual economics, and post-disaster sufficiently robust to model work, development of an needs assessment. and parameter uncertainty but operational framework, and five case studies. The initial phase of are still able to guide evidence- The project seeks to understand the project focused on developing based decision making whether forward-looking IAs can a draft operational framework help effectively target support for Complements more qualitative and identifying gaps in the disaster risk activities. It aims to measures of impact evidence base through extensive understand whether it is possible Results in headline figures on research into risk modelling; into to develop a conceptually sound, the impact of sovereign DRFI microeconomics, macroeconomics,

51 Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum and public economics; and into series of preestablished selection Challenges costing of sovereign DRFI criteria. Among these criteria were instruments. Building on the strong government interest in/ While the model itself, as the outputs of phase 1, the second commitment to sovereign DRFI, first of a kind of research being phase of the project will carry out conducted, represents a challenge income level of the country, an extensive research agenda to for the team, coordination of vulnerability of the country’s address identified evidence gaps, inputs from multiple disciplines economy to disaster shocks, and test the draft operational represents an additional challenge. framework in a series of five and the quality and capacity of The vision for sovereign DRFI IA country case studies. The research institutions. In each of these proposed in this project centers themes have been chosen to countries, the IA project will aim to on probabilistic risk models address the specific gaps in the expand the generic evidence base complemented by other types generic evidence base identified on the impact of sovereign DRFI of insight and information. Any during phase 1 and to complement and to gather further evidence evaluation methodology that the country case studies. to develop an IA methodology. relies solely on historical DRFI experience will suffer from the Depending on the specific country Alongside the research track, a fallacy of hasty generalization; context, the IA project team parallel work stream will carry out with less than 100 years of will focus on building evidence the case studies in Bangladesh, experience, the past is unlikely to Ethiopia, Jamaica, Niger, and the on sovereign DRFI through a offer a reasonable guide to future Philippines. The five countries combination of risk modelling, disaster risk, and decision making were selected by the Project actuarial and economic analysis, based solely on average historical Steering Committee based on a and/or public finance research. experience is unlikely to be sound.

Figure 3. Sovereign DRFI Impact Appraisal Project.

Evidence RESEARCH gaps Research to address gaps in the evidence base as identified during Phase 1

Background research (16 background papers) Operational framework

Draft operational CASE STUDIES framework 5 country case studies to test the approach

PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 3 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: World Bank-GFDRR Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program, 2014.

52 Worth Your Money? What Risk Models and Economic Models Tell Us about the Development Impact of Insurance

A probabilistic risk model, Conclusions Contributors to the session developed to generate an Juan Miguel Adaya Valle, Director of objective assessment of risk faced, The aim of the project is to Risk Analysis, Ministry of Finance and can overcome this challenge. help national governments and Public Credit, Mexico Such models are widely used by international donors do a better Charlotte Benson, Senior Disaster the private sector whenever job of targeting and prioritizing Risk Management Specialist, Asian disaster risk decision making is future investments in sovereign Development Bank sufficiently important (e.g., in DRFI programs. In order to Julie Dana, Lead Financial Officer, disaster insurance or reinsurance reach the desired outcome World Bank Treasury markets). However, while a the IA team has selected the Emmanuel Dooc, Insurance modelled approach can accurately best possible academics in the Commissioner, Philippines account for the relative likelihood relative disciplines. The expected Robert Muir-Wood, Chief Research of different physical events, outcome of this work is to show Officer, RMS it must be integrated within a that conceptually sound, ex ante, broader framework that draws objective, quantitative appraisal on theory and evidence in public for sovereign DRFI programs is Risk Finance and Insurance finance, financial economics, operationally feasible, and that it actuarial science, development can result in headline figures that economics, and post-disaster are meaningful to decision makers. needs assessment to be useful for IA decision making for DRFI.

Further resources

DRFI at the World Bank, http://go.worldbank.org/J7Q2X62090. DRFI Impact Appraisal Project introduction, http://www.gfdrr.org/sites/gfdrr.org/files/Sovereign_DRFI_Impact_Appraisal_ Project.pdf. DRFI Impact Appraisal Project website at http://go.worldbank.org/0IYHJGV280. DRFI Impact Appraisal Project blog at http://blogs.worldbank.org/psd/evidence-wanted-effectiveness-sovereign-disaster-risk- financing-and-insurance. Kate Galbraith, “How to Save for a Disaster,” New York Times, November 27, 2013. 53 Photo: bestdesigns Models Make Markets How Catastrophe Risk Models Facilitate New Systems of Risk Transfer, Risk Pooling, and Risk Reduction

Robert Muir-Wood, Chief Research Officer, RMS

History of the Role infrequently—for example, on have just been two big losses or no of Models average only once every 200 losses at all for 10 years. years? After major loss events, a Catastrophe modelling, first The model will have to satisfy significant process of learning developed at the end of the a range of calibration tests will need to follow, in particular 1980s, has proved vital to to be accepted, in particular using data collected through the

how catastrophe insurers and Risk Finance and Insurance demonstrating that results match insurance claims process to refine reinsurers conduct their business. the actual losses of recent events how vulnerabilities are defined. Recent historical experience is for which the hazard footprint, and There may also be new scientific insufficient to reveal the full underlying exposure, are known. findings on the population of potential of catastrophic loss. The loss exceedance probability extremes. The problems and Catastrophes form part of a highly distribution from the model at uncertainties of catastrophe skewed distribution of losses, for shorter return periods should also estimation can never be fully which a short time sample tends show consistency with the past solved, however. The model is to give a misleading idea of the few decades of loss experience. always work in progress. underlying mean behavior, or what is the potential for suffering an How Models Bring Order Examples of Models extreme loss. to Markets Making Markets The purpose of the model is to provide a synthetic catalog of Twelve insurers went bankrupt While in many areas models have after Hurricane Andrew in 1992, helped bring order to preexisting extreme events, representing because they had not anticipated insurance systems, catastrophe 10,000 or 100,000 years of a loss of this magnitude. This models have also facilitated the activity, as well as the means to outcome helped usher in the era of creation of new markets. Some link the hazard at a location to catastrophe modelling. examples of these markets include the loss that would be generated index-based risk transfer systems according to the nature of the Once a catastrophe model and catastrophe risk securitization. exposure. In particular the model becomes trusted it can help can provide answers to the bring order to a risk market. The There are now many examples two key questions that underlie technical price of the risk in the of index-based solutions for risk catastrophe insurance: (1) what model can provide a floor below transfer, in particular around is the technical price to charge which prices will not fall, even crop micro-insurance. One for the risk, representing the during a period of low losses. The prominent index-based scheme is annualized cost of all potential results of the model can also the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk damages (the “burn cost”) plus discourage wild upward swings Insurance Facility (www.ccrif.org). appropriate loadings; and (2) of prices in the aftermath of an In the Caribbean as in many lower- how much capital should the extreme catastrophe. In principle, income countries, public assets are insurer hold against the potential the level of risk remains the same often poorly known, and there may for extreme losses that recur irrespective of whether there be no values or even locations for

55 Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum government properties. The costs The risk securitization market For commercial modellers, for disaster management that fall came into existence only as a the potential for a thriving to a government in the immediate result of the confidence gained catastrophe risk (re)insurance aftermath of a catastrophe will be in catastrophe risk modelling. It market becomes the inducement very hard to predict. The speed remains impossible to arrange a to invest in the development with which funds arrive can be transaction, calculate an expected of a new model. The existence more important than precisely loss, and develop a price for a of a market will imply a number matching what costs have been bond without a trusted model. of agents willing to license the incurred, especially when no While based on its own significant model. There will inevitably be less alternative funding arrangement experience the conventional commercial interest and ultimately exists. In such situations, it makes reinsurance market can function less investment in the quality sense to have payouts determined even where there are no models, of a model if only a single public by some rapidly calculated index investors are prepared to trust the monopoly catastrophe insurer is to of the hazard based on available risk analysis only if it is undertaken be established in a territory. parametric data. For governments, to a level of detail, and with suitable “basis risk” may be theoretical, calibrations from a reputable Where Models Do Not because they never know their modelling agent. Figure 1 illustrates Facilitate Market-Based full costs. However, there remains the influx of investors’ money into Solutions a challenge for the public officials nontraditional risk transfer markets charged with paying the premium since 2000 as a result of the increased Better knowledge of risk is for such a scheme, in that they trust in catastrophe models. perhaps most contentious around may lose their jobs if their country flood. Models reveal very strong suffers a loss and there is no Where Models Help variations in flood risk pricing for index-based payout. Create New Markets identical and even neighboring properties situated at elevations Claims management is the most What are the frontiers of the that differ by only a few feet. challenging part of the insurance modelled world, and how might (Consider two identical houses, one process. In India claims adjustment they be expanded? Potential routes flooded four times a century to 3 can cost more than the value of for expansion include an increase feet, causing a 20 percent loss, and the property. One approach to this in coverage of perils and secondary once a century to 6 feet, causing challenge might be to expand the consequences of loss in countries a 40 percent loss), alongside its use of index payouts, or band losses where there is already a thriving three-foot-higher neighbor, for into a small number of categories, insurance industry, or the expansion which the technical cost of flood as in Japan and Taiwan, which of risk modelling to low-income and insurance will be one-sixth the allows very rapid payouts. lower-middle-income countries. price.) For a property that can

Figure 1. Bond and collateralized 60 market development. 50

Note: Col Re, or collateralized reinsurance, is a 40 reinsurance contract or program that is fully n Col Re n Col ILW n Sidecar n Bonds funded in advance by investors or third-party capital providers to cover in full the potential 30

claims that could arise from the reinsurance US$ billion contract. Col ILW, or collateralized industry loss 20 warranty, is the funding put in place to cover a contract whose payout is determined by the size of the total insurance industry loss for that peril 10 and territory. A sidecar is a financial structure created to allow investors to assume the risk and 0 return of a group of insurance policies written by a (re)insurer and so earn the risk and return that 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 arises from that business. Source: Aon Benfield Securities, Inc. 2014 YTD

56 Models Make Markets: How Catastrophe Risk Models Facilitate New Systems of Risk Transfer, Risk Pooling, and Risk Reduction expect to suffer a major flood more issued a catastrophe bond to the updates of the model to all users, often than once in every 50 years, risk securitization market. or the possibility of one model user or a house affected by wave action offering selected counterparties However, the principal output of more often than once in every access to his or her results. 100 years (as in the U.S. coastal models for the FONDEN scheme concerns economic impacts. The “V zone”), the annual risk cost may Conclusions be in excess of 1 percent of the question then remains: can we create market-based mechanisms property’s value. Even before these At the start of the 1990s, that also consider loss of life in levels, insurance rates become most insurance and reinsurance disasters? In thinking about how politically unpalatable—blamed by organizations consumed models real estate organizations as causing to incentivize actions that have only by receiving a report on blight, and lambasted by politicians the biggest impact on reducing their results. They soon moved to as “intolerable.” casualties, we might consider a scenario in which developers bid license models in house, thereby In other words, when people are for a project in a city that has empowering themselves to take unprepared to accept the risk to provide accommodation for ownership of models—adjusting

differentials, improved knowledge 1,000 families and also has to and stress-testing them to make Risk Finance and Insurance does not necessarily facilitate achieve the greatest reduction in them their own. This ability to run market solutions. This is not just a expected casualties for the cost. models under their own terms is problem with flood risk. In Mexico The catastrophe model outputting the same evolution that we can City the same high-rise building expected casualties could help tell now see for all other users of can have risk costs that differ by them how to achieve this. modelled outputs. a factor of 30 depending on an apartment’s location relative to The Effect of New the underlying soils. Technology on the Contributors to the session Distribution and Use Mario Gustavo Ordaz Schroeder, Models’ Role in Market- of Risk Information Professor, Institute of Engineering, Based Solutions for Universidad Nacional Autónoma Disaster Risk Reduction Catastrophe models are becoming de México; President of Evaluación de more complex, with ever larger Riesgos Naturales, Mexico In Mexico, a country that helped stochastic event sets, while at the Simon Young, Consultant, Caribbean pioneer the idea of probabilistic same time becoming more granular, Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility modelling, catastrophe models and working at higher resolution, and Africa Risk Facility have been developed beyond the in particular for flood. Models Paul VanderMarck, Chief Products use of the insurance sector to are becoming more demanding Officer, RMS explore risk to the National Fund for hardware—even beyond the for Natural Disasters (FONDEN) capacity of what a single insurance Martine Woolf, Director of system. FONDEN was established organization can run—especially for Climate Hazard and Risk Section, by the Mexican government in those weeks of the year around the Environmental Geoscience Division, the late 1990s to support the renewal of reinsurance programs, Geoscience Australia rehabilitation and reconstruction when the full power of modelling Rashmin Gunasekera, Senior Disaster of public infrastructure, low- has to be harnessed. It then makes Risk Assessment and Financing income housing, and certain efficient economic sense to employ Specialist, World Bank Group elements of the natural habitat cloud- based computing capacity. Alexander Allmann, Head of Geo Risks, that were affected by natural Cloud technology also opens up the Munich Re catastrophes. The FONDEN potential of hosting multiple models scheme purchases reinsurance, on the same platform, and brings and in 2007, with the involvement many other advantages as well, of Swiss Re, for the first time such as simultaneous and instant

57 “Small Island nations cannot wait—and are not waiting—for international agreements to step up their efforts to face the challenges of climate change. The World Bank Group is inspired by the leadership emerging from small island nations across the globe in reducing their climate and disaster risks. Technical advances, financial innovation, and practical leadership are all in evidence. Our role in response is one of support and effective partnership.”

—Rachel Kyte, Special Envoy for Climate Change and Vice President, World Bank Group

This image from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Aqua shows Fiji’s second-largest island, Vanua Levu, and the Cakaulevu Reef that shelters the island’s northern shore. NASA image courtesy Norman Kuring, NASA Ocean Color Team. Big Numbers, Small States, and Risk Pooling for Insurance

Olivier Mahul, Program Manager, Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program, Risk Finance and Insurance World Bank Group Abigail Baca, Disaster Risk Management Specialist, World Bank Group Benedikt Signer, Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Specialist, World Bank Group

When small island nations suffer your eggs in one basket: it creates disaster losses, the impact on a high degree of vulnerability that their economies can be significant. cannot be ignored. These countries are indeed small: Grenada, for example, is This level of vulnerability leads to 133 square miles, Maldives is big impacts. In 2004, Hurricane 115 square miles, the Marshall Ivan, a Category 3 storm, Islands is 70 square miles, and devastated Grenada’s main Tuvalu is just 10 square miles. productive crop, nutmeg, and Taken together, these four left two-thirds of the population countries would cover just over without sufficient housing. Total 50 percent of the city of London. damages were estimated around The concentration of assets and US$900 million, equivalent to 200 people on these small islands is percent of national gross domestic like the proverbial placement of all product (GDP) at the time. Imagine if the United Kingdom suffered a comparable event: 200 percent of This summary draws on discussions its GDP would be US$5.6 trillion. with practitioners from the Caribbean, Indian Ocean Islands, and the Pacific While Grenada’s experience with Islands in a technical session as well as Hurricane Ivan is extreme, Small a full-day workshop on the experience Island Developing States (SIDS) of small island states. Generous support by the Africa, Caribbean and across the world continue to Pacific–European Union (ACP-EU) suffer significant disaster losses. National Disaster Risk Reduction Figure 1 shows the economic Programme enabling the participation of SIDS representatives at UR2014 is impacts of disasters in SIDS as a gratefully acknowledged. share of GDP.

59 Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum

Figure 1. Economic impacts of recent disasters in SIDS (percentage of GDP). 250 200% 200

150 120%

% GDP 100

44% 50 30% 15% 0 Solomon Islands Samoa St. Lucia Haiti Grenada (EQ 2007) (TC 2012) (TC 2010) (EQ 2010) (TC 2004) Source: Prepared by World Bank with data from EM-DAT. Note: EQ = earthquake; TC = tropical cyclone.

Figure 2. Data on hazard, exposure, and vulnerability used as the basis for risk maps in Vanuatu. Earthquake Tropical cyclone Tropical

Hazard Exposure and vulnerability Risk Total average annual loss (million US$) n 0 – 0.1 n 0.1 – 0.2 n 0.2 – 0.3 n 0.3 – 0.5 n 0.5 – 0.75 n 0.75 – 1 n 1 – 5 n 10.73

Source: Pacific Catastrophe Risk and Financing Initiative, “Country Risk Profile: Vanuatu,” http://pcrafi.sopac.org/.

To understand not just what always easy. It requires good and hazard are not available. For has happened in the past, but data on hazards, exposure, and example, the maps representing what could happen in the future, vulnerability. Maps combining the risk profile for the South countries can leverage available these three components offer Pacific nation of Vanuatu show the models and data through risk a simple and powerful way of tropical cyclone and earthquake assessments. But building a showing the spatial dimensions hazards, distribution and value of robust understanding of natural of risk, as well as the underlying public and private infrastructure, disaster risks—particularly in factors often hidden from policy and the average annual loss in each terms of economic losses—is not makers when data about exposure administration unit (figure 2).

60 Big Numbers, Small States, and Risk Pooling for Insurance

Figure 3. Risk profile for Vanuatu. 100 Loss Annual (US$ Loss 80 probability million) (% GDP) Average 48 6.6%6.6 60 annual 1/50 285 40%40 40 1/100 370 51%51 1/250 480 M 66%66 Direct losses (% GDP) 20 TC+EQ TC EQ Source: Pacific Catastrophe Risk and Financing Initiative, “Country Risk Profile: 0 Vanuatu,” http://pcrafi.sopac.org/. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Note: TC = tropical cyclone; EQ = earthquake. Mean return period (years)

These types of risk assessments SIDS have a seemingly intractable of risk through risk reduction and provide metrics indicating both problem. How can they pursue prevention, and (2) putting in place Risk Finance and Insurance the average annual loss and the long-term development objectives financial protection strategies annual probability of experiencing so they are not completely derailed to address residual risk, which is higher losses associated with when such a disaster strikes? either not feasible or not cost- less frequent but more severe What instruments and strategies effective to mitigate (figure 4). disasters. The risk profile for are available to protect the Vanuatu presented in figure 3 fiscal space of the governments SIDS have taken leadership, in the shows that while the country’s operating in such conditions? How political arena as well as in technical average annual loss is US$48 can small states work together to work, in finding innovative ways million (or 6.6 percent of GDP), become “big” and address these to work together to “become big.” losses of US$285 million (40 challenges at the required scale? In the Caribbean and the Pacific, percent of GDP) or greater have designing policies for financial a 50-year return period, or 2 The risk information that highlights protection with finance ministries percent annual probability. the scale of the challenge also has motivated investments in informs two crucial steps in reliable and appropriate data Faced with the possibility of losses addressing these impacts: (1) to quantify the economic and on this scale, the governments of reducing the underlying drivers fiscal impacts of disasters. Such information can support the development of sovereign Figure 4. Risk reduction and financial protection as complementary strategies to disaster risk financing tools, such help governments manage the total risk they face. as disaster funds, sovereign risk transfer mechanisms, or

Cost-efficient risk reduction and prevention risk pooling schemes. Financial instruments such as catastrophe bonds and parametric reinsurance contracts are particularly effective Cost-efficient financial protection for residual risk at providing rapid liquidity for

Total Risk Total emergency response costs. These can be combined with other sources of funds (budget Maximum bearable loss reallocations, reconstruction loans, donor funds) for long-term

61 Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum

Figure 5. Risk layering, or use of various financial instruments recovery and reconstruction. The to address increasing levels of loss. resulting risk-layering strategy ensures that more cost-effective Residual risk financial tools, such as dedicated reserves for disaster, are used Risk transfer first, and that the more expensive Risk transfer for assets Risk transfer risk transfer instruments, such as (e.g., indemnity insurance for public and private property) Post-disaster parametric insurance, are used only Risk transfer for budget management credit

Loss $ (e.g., parametric insurance, cat swap) in exceptional circumstances (figure 5).

Contingent credit Investing in detailed risk data yields payoffs far beyond risk Fund for disaster risk management/budget reallocation financing. The same information can help governments, the private sector, communities, and individuals make informed decisions Figure 6. Reduction in insurance premium through pooling. in reducing their risk.

For SIDS, accessing market-based risk transfer products (see red circle in figure 5) has historically been very difficult. Approaching the market individually, SIDS would face higher costs for risk transfer because the reinsurer would pass on to them the higher transaction costs for these small markets. $ Working together to diversify the Sum of countries’ Reduced pooled premium premium risk portfolio presented to the market has resulted in significantly lower costs to SIDS. It has also required significant investment Figure 7. Setup of the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility. in risk information and innovative structures such as risk pools. Figure Anguilla Catastrophe Reinsurance 6 shows a real example of countries swaps achieving lower premium costs Antigua and Premium Insurance Premium Insurance by pooling their risk into a single Barbuda payout payout instrument with higher volumes Insurance and greater risk diversification. premium Growth In 2007, the Caribbean Trinidad and Insurance Initial Tobago payout Catastrophe Risk Insurance Reserves donor contribution Facility (CCRIF) launched the first- Turks and ever multi-country risk pool; today, Caicos Islands it operates with 16 countries Note: Not all member countries are shown. participating (Anguilla, Antigua and

62 Barbuda, the Bahamas, Barbados, weeks of the triggering disaster. “For Vanuatu and other Belize, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, The structure of the CCRIF is SIDS, our future depends Dominica, Grenada, Haiti, Jamaica, shown in figure 7. on being smarter about St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, investing in resilience and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, The CCRIF and more recently the leveraging innovative risk Trinidad and Tobago, and Turks and insurance pilot under the Pacific financing solutions, like Caicos Islands). As a parametric Catastrophe Risk Assessment the PCRAFI, to protect sovereign risk transfer facility, the and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI) our fiscal space against CCRIF provides member countries have demonstrated the financial disasters and climate with immediate liquidity following benefits of risk pooling for extremes.” disasters. Since inception it has insurance; the countries involved —Honorable Ralph John Regenvanu, made eight payments totalling have received as much as a 50 Minister for Lands and Natural Resources, US$32 million, always within two percent reduction in the cost Vanuatu

Key Priorities for SIDS 1. Obtaining risk information to enable better disaster risk management decisions. This priority includes investing in the following: underlying exposure, hazard, and historical loss data to inform risk assessments; risk information systems to make these data available; and risk analytics so that data can inform decisions by policy makers, particularly those concerning core development planning.

2. Enhancing the resilience of vulnerable communities and SIDS through both soft and hard measures. Strengthening resilience and sustainable financial protection requires hard measures, such as the integration of risk information in sectoral investments. But it also requires soft measures, such as the establishment of a risk management culture, greater awareness of the benefits of investing in prevention and long-term planning, and social safety nets between communities.

3. Integrating disaster and climate risks in fiscal and development planning. SIDS often struggle to gain the necessary fiscal space to respond to disasters and maintain development objectives at the same time. They need to accurately measure the fiscal impact of disasters and integrate this information in comprehensive fiscal risk management together with other contingent liabilities, such as debt and commodity price risk. Insurance of public assets and improved public financial management helps achieve fiscal stability. But only the integration of risk information in long-term development planning can address the underlying drivers of these risks.

4. Continuing innovations to meet new challenges. As can be seen in their efforts to develop regional sovereign risk pooling initiatives, SIDS have shown both political and technical leadership in addressing disaster and climate risks. Continued innovation is needed to face the challenges of the future, which include how to better communicate the fiscal impact of risk, how to measure and communicate the benefits of investing in risk reduction, and how to better quantify the poverty impacts of disasters and protect the most vulnerable, such as through disaster-linked social protection.

5. Enabling solutions through regional programs. SIDS face unique problems. Regional programs are already playing a crucial role in translating an improved understanding of disaster and climate risks into concrete solutions. For example, regional programs can help SIDS invest in better risk data. Regional approaches also facilitate the sharing of experiences across countries; this enables countries to improve their understanding of available instruments for building comprehensive financial protection strategies, instead of relying on individual instruments.

63 Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum of premiums compared to the When SIDS representatives Timothy Antoine, Permanent cost of approaching the market participating in the Understanding Secretary for Energy, Economic individually. The principles of Risk Forum were asked to consider Development, Trade and Planning, Grenada pooling can equally be applied what it would take to reduce to other disaster risk reduction their country’s disaster risk by 50 ‘Ana Fakaola ‘I Fanga Lemani, Acting Deputy Secretary for Procurement, instruments and practices. For percent by 2030, all stressed the Ministry of Finance and National example, several SIDS have need to work together, to find Planning, Tonga successfully enhanced early regional solutions, and to become Ms. Fathmath Thasneem, Deputy warning systems and basic risk big by working in partnership; Minister of the National Disaster information by sharing or pooling these are considered fundamental Management Center, Maldives data and expertise. steps toward enabling the necessary investments for risk In addition, insurance pools such as reduction and financial protection. CCRIF or PCRAFI can be the first step in providing the incentives for longer-term investments in Contributors to the session climate and disaster resilience. Rachel Kyte, Special Envoy for Climate Investing in detailed risk data Change and Vice President, World Bank Group yields payoffs far beyond risk financing. The same information Honorable Ralph John Regenvanu, can help governments, the Minister for Lands and Natural Resources, Vanuatu private sector, communities, and individuals make informed decisions Mamy Razakanaivo, Executive Director, Prevention and Emergency in reducing their risk. Management Unit, Prime Minister’s Office, Madagascar

64 OF INTEREST

Interview

Q: You mentioned the bring different communities importance of learning together to talk about risk. from other countries’ experience and the diversity Q: Why have this event? of participation in the Forum. Why is diversity so A: It is important for people important? with different perspectives to come together, share A: Challenges around disaster experiences, and learn about risk management vary from what others are doing—and country to country, region to about what they could be doing Lianne Dalziel region, and city to city. Thus to better prepare their own Mayor of Christchurch, New Zealand it is very important not only cities and countries to manage to cover a variety of subjects disaster risk. Globally, we have Q: What brought you to the during the Forum, but also got more people living in cities 2014 Understanding Risk to have diversity among the and coastal environments Forum in London? participants. Participants bring than ever before. That’s why their own experiences to share we need to understand the A: I have come to share and with others, and they represent connection between disaster learn from other perspectives different perspectives. Some risk reduction, climate change and other countries’ experiences. of the talks today, for example, adaptation, and sustainable The Forum has been set up focused on how disaster has community development. They to bring together community a far greater impact on the all go together, and come leaders, people from the world poor than on those with more together in the large cities on of science and research, and resources. We heard about our coasts. And that’s why we people from the world of microfinance insurance, which is need this forum—to understand finance and reinsurance. And a fantastic concept that is more these connections as part of what you find here is a unique applicable to some environments understanding risk. opportunity to join with others than others, but in the end the in truly understanding risk, which important thing is that there is is key to building resilience and information and knowledge here managing disaster risk. applicable to any circumstance. That range of information becomes available when you

65 Photo: adrian825/Thinkstock.com Psychology of Risk

Game Over? Exploring the Complexity of Actionable Information through Gaming [page 69]

Science and Emotion: Using Technical Information in Practice [page73]

Thinking Fast and Slow: Why Catastrophe Risks Lead Us to Behave Differently [page 77]

Changing the Risk Paradigm: Reducing Losses and Exploiting Opportunities [page 81]

Science, Politics, and What We Value: How Big Is the Risk of Climate Change? [page85] Illustration: DigtialStorm/Thinkstock.com Game Over? Exploring the Complexity of Actionable Information through Gaming

Pablo Suarez, Associate Director for Research and Innovation, Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre

Imagine that your job consists a decidedly passive role for experience of communicating risk of helping others understand those who allegedly could take information. risks: your task is to help them action based on that actionable anticipate what can go wrong information. That passivity was A new communication approach

and inspire them to act to reduce palpable in the audiences I was needed: one that captured Psychology of Risk avoidable losses. Imagine that the addressed; their body language and the beautiful, elusive complexity rapidly growing power of science facial expressions revealed that of the systems we inhabit, in and technology produces new, my effort to communicate was which information about changing better information about hazards, not only failing to engage them, it risks and awareness of the likely vulnerabilities, and capacities to seemed to be temporarily shrinking consequences of action (or manage risks. Importantly, imagine their cognitive capabilities. inaction) became the basis for that this information is actionable: Under the circumstances, it was actual decisions about whether as the probability of certain rather optimistic to assume that to act. How to help people engage extreme events changes, specific people would in fact act upon the in the actual exploration of decisions can be triggered that allegedly actionable information trade-offs, thresholds, feedbacks, would save lives and livelihoods— they were exposed to. What was delays, and other aspects of how and this applies whether you are left after the presentation to information about likely future talking about hurricanes, sea- passive audiences? Little more conditions can lead to better level rise, or any other somewhat than a big question mark. Figure 1 decisions today? The comfort zone predictable natural hazard. shows what used to be my usual of PowerPoint presentations and Now what do you think actually happens when you communicate Figure 1. A simplified representation of the usual experience that actionable information of communicating risk. through conventional means such as PowerPoint presentations, Allegedly actionable information journal articles, maps, and other unidirectional formats? Audience: passive role

After a decade of working in the humanitarian sector trying to communicate science-based climate risks to extremely busy disaster managers in Africa and Latin America, I came to a concerning realization: my unidirectional approaches created

Illustration: PlanetFlem/Thinkstock.com 69 Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum

participants can start a gameplay In the world of risk management, experience with no awareness probabilities are everywhere. A of specific causal relationships, disaster is, by definition, a rather and then, as the game unfolds improbable event. Yet in the words and a range of outcomes is of Aristotle, “It is in the very nature revealed, they can see a particular of probability that improbable pattern of causality as exquisitely things will happen.” The concept obvious. A model of the gameplay of probability implies knowledge written documents was clearly not experience is shown in figure 2. of all possible outcomes, and an enough to inspire people to take understanding of how many of actionable information and turn Game designers create large those outcomes fulfill a certain it into action. It was time to step organic structures of designed condition. Thus in a roll of a six- outside of the comfort zone. interaction. These organic, playful sided die, there is clearly a 1/6 structures successfully embody probability of rolling a one (which Participants in this intensely two of the most important could represent about a 16 percent interactive, seriously fun UR trade-offs involved in climate risk: chance of drought in any given Forum session discovered that the “now versus later” trade-off year). One of the games played games can help us “inhabit” (better outcomes for the longer- at the UR Forum involved the roll the complexity of climate risk range future may require sacrifices of a giant die representing the management decisions, allowing in the short term), and the “me probability distribution function us through system dynamics versus us” trade-off (on one hand, of precipitation based on the modelling to explore and test selfish decisions can more reliably historical record: a six represented a range of plausible futures. lead to good outcomes, but the a flood, and all other values Well-designed games, like real- outcomes may be small; on the represented good rains. Players world risk management, link other hand, collective decisions can stood up and took on the role of information to decisions with be riskier, but economies of scale humanitarian workers. A row of consequences. Unlike unidirectional make better outcomes possible). players constituted a team. Before communication approaches, When both trade-offs are present, the roll of the die, each participant games combine the analytic and games offer a platform that is had to make an individual decision in questioning concentration of singularly conducive to learning preparation for the rainy season: the scientific viewpoint with the and dialogue about disaster risk intuitive freedom and rewards of management and that allows for Players who expected too much imaginative, artistic acts.1 the exploration of plausible futures. rain could choose an umbrella

For the purposes of learning Figure 2. A distillation of the experience of gameplay. When a player takes action, and of engaging in dialogue to the game system creates output by applying rules. Such output becomes information improve climate risk management, about context and choices shaping subsequent decisions—or determines a win/loss useful games involve emergent state. systems: they generate, from a simple set of rules, patterns of Player processes information about context and choices complexity that are unpredictable and makes internal decision based on possible outcomes or surprising. In games, the limited set of elements that constitutes the system can yield a vast array Game creates output Player takes action of plausible combinations and outcomes—what game designers call the space of possibility. Thus Note: The figure builds on the model proposed by Katie Salen and Eric Zimmerman, Rules of Play: Game Design Fundamentals (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2003), 316.

70 GAME OVER? Exploring the Complexity of Actionable Information through Gaming

(represented by placing one’s climate change is introduced: on Climate Change, Tanzanian arms above one’s head in a the die is replaced by a large government, Zambian Red protective shape). truncated cone with three possible Cross, and many other entities outcomes—flood, drought, or have developed game-enabled Players who expected good good rains—that are very hard to initiatives to address a very rains could invest in actions for estimate in terms of probabilities. the long term (represented by wide range of issues, including When El Niño becomes a possibility, thumbs up). hurricane preparedness, climate- will teams adjust allocation of resilient coastal development, resources to flood preparedness? By the end of the countdown, gender dimensions of food How will teams deal with the new, each player had to have chosen insecurity, climate change one of the two actions. Then the deep uncertainty surrounding attribution, crowdsourced early die was rolled to determine the climate change? Forced to warning systems for floods, rains. Players who hadn’t chosen consider questions of this kind, interinstitutional collaboration, the “right” action had to sit down participants discover surprising, and more. In the last five years, and were eliminated, whereas useful approaches to changing risks and are prompted to explore hundreds of game sessions those who had chosen the “right” Psychology of Risk action remained standing and kept the implications of these changes. on climate risks have engaged playing. The row with the most The game led to rich discussions thousands of participants, standing players after several about the role of forecasts, ranging from residents of Nairobi rounds was the winning team. collaboration, incentives, and other shantytowns and Nicaraguan key dimensions of humanitarian subsistence farming communities and development work. What makes this apparently to negotiators at the UN Climate simple game challenging is that Conference and even to the White In addition to offering an participants must collectively House. UR Forum participants got process the information about risk opportunity for serious gameplay, a flavor of the transformative and allocate individual resources the session provided an overview potential of game-enabled for a shared goal. Players must of how games can be integrated processes for understanding risk, negotiate with teammates and into participatory processes, why anticipate how outcomes can be they work well to engage people and many concrete ideas emerged affected depending on what they in envisioning and experiencing for adding serious gameplay do, what others do, and what risk, and how humanitarian and dimensions to ongoing initiatives the random rains deliver. As the development organizations (as around the world. game progresses, risks change: well as some governments) have players no longer roll the large die embraced the use of participatory but instead flip a giant coin that games for real-world work. The Endnotes represents El Niño, which can Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate 1 For another perspective on the role of enhance the probability of extreme Centre, the World Bank, Oxfam, games in risk assessment, see “Game Time: Monitoring Changing Riskscapes rainfall from about 15 percent to World Food Programme, United with GEM and SENSUM Tools” in this 50 percent. Later in the game, Nations Framework Convention publication.

Further resources

Climate Centre website at http://www.climatecentre.org. “Using Games to Experience Climate Risk: Empowering Africa’s Decision-Makers,” Final Report: CDKN Action Lab Innovation Grant, http://www.climatecentre.org/downloads/File/Games/CDKNGamesReport.pdf. Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, Games for a New Climate: Experiencing the Complexity of Future Risks (Boston: Boston University Pardee Center, 2012), http://www.bu.edu/pardee/publications-library/2012- archive-2/games-climate-task-force/. 71

Science and Emotion Using Technical Information in Practice

Dr. Adam Cooper, Lecturer in Social Science and Public Policy, Department of Science, Technology, Engineering and Public Policy, University College London

The focus of much risk analysis In the finance sector new misses the opportunity to exploit across the worlds of finance, disciplines have been emerging a modelling system far more insurance, and disaster risk that try to foreground a deeper sophisticated than any Excel Psychology of Risk reduction tends to erase humans understanding of the role of workbook: the human brain. from the picture. There is a people in analytic settings. We tendency to forget that the reason find in the reinsurance sector a The role of people in making disasters are disasters or that risks firm reliance on modelling. But decisions about risk is something are considered risks is because there can be a modelling culture that is implicit within economic someone is affected or someone that steamrollers the emotional models, of course. There is no is thinking about the situation. This response of those asked to do shortage of commentators willing tendency might have a range of the modelling. As one respondent to criticize the shortcomings of classical or neoclassical economic explanations: It could stem from a put it in a study of analysis in the reinsurance sector: models of the human. Behavioral physical sciences view of disasters— economics has moved the debate that is, the view that disasters are “It’s crazy that we’ve only forward, but even behavioral about flooding or earthquakes that [got data] for 40 years and economics misses critical factors need to be predicted. Or it could talk about 1-in-500-year about humans, including one that stem from an engineering view return periods. How the makes us most distinctly human: of development, which sees new [hell] am I supposed to our emotional response to risk. We technology as a way to solve a long- know [whether this model is can turn to conviction narrative standing problem. The absence of accurate]?”1 theory (CNT) (though it takes us humanity—and whatever makes us a step beyond the normal analysis human—at the heart of the global The emotion in that response in this space) to affirm the need systems of finance and disaster is palpable. Using approaches for a cross-disciplinary theory risk management is something developed in the field of “strategy of economic action, based on of an irony for the humanitarian as practice,” we can begin to how decisions are actually made. sector. But it is a deep and enduring understand the dynamics between CNT recognizes that action is problem. The question is, how to the people caught in an analytic possible because actors create understand this human-ness? How system that places numerical narratives of the future that do we explore the role of humans modelling outputs before human allow them to feel confident and include social and societal judgment. This preference for about it. CNT draws on the human factors when pursuing disaster risk models is problematic on a number capacity to experience and solve reduction and management? of levels, not least because it the problem of action using

73 Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum situationally based imagination, can we convey these trade-offs Science (IRIDeS), bring together emotion, narrative, and simulation; effectively to those not involved in a broad range of disciplines to in other words, it goes beyond such decision making? Using games understand disaster response the mechanistic approach that to provide a structured experience better. IRIDeS used mixed characterizes deterministic that invokes the emotional lived methods in the aftermath of computational economic modelling. experience of the sort felt in vivo Fukushima to help local people It foregrounds “embodied is a key method. Crucially, such articulate their anxiety about narratives” that can be researched games can build on the use of the future and their frustrations and understood by examining nonlinear system dynamics models with the official response, “relative sentiment shifts” in any to present coherent scenarios including their irritation with unstructured database via text that people can act out.2 This is, the lack of information, their analysis. Such sentiment shifts in fact, another form of modelling, sense that authorities were not can be used to predict emerging but one where the model is to be trusted, and their feeling risks better than other methods. executed by people, and where that compensation for land was This approach represents one one of the outputs is an emotional not equitable. G-Safety uses way in which understanding and response, rather than a graph. this information to generate examining emotional reactions can simulations and record the history provide us with more information We need to develop a better of the event, as well as to train about what is happening in understanding of risk analysis in disaster response teams for future the world. This is exactly the practice, a better understanding operations. information that analytic models of of the way humans think or rather risk forget. emote about risks, and better In Indonesia, residents face the ways of articulating and training twin pressures of immediate But emotions can be utilized around the emotions associated disasters (such as the Mentawai and understood in a range of with risks. But what about carrying tsunami in 2010 or the outer-rise different ways. Especially in out disaster risk response in earthquake and tsunami in 2012) the fraught world of DRM, practice? How can we embed the and the more gradual sinking internalizing lessons about risks and trade-offs often requires a The question is, how to understand this human-ness? more instinctive understanding of How do we explore the role of humans and include the pressures and consequences social and societal factors when pursuing disaster risk of our choices than a purely reduction and management? “rational” or mathematical one. This fraught world is one where donor pressure on effective and notion of the human, the social, of their islands. The Indonesian efficient action forces the hand and the emotional in the practice Institute for Sciences has of local response teams to choose of DRM? Clearly there are no instituted the Public Education between investing in disaster straightforward answers here, and Community Preparedness risk reduction infrastructure but experiences in Indonesia and program to help citizens now (before the risk materializes) Japan provide something of a understand—and feel empowered or disaster response (after it’s template for future development. to address—the risks arising happened). The former carries the out of these challenges. The risk of wasted resources when the In Japan, programs like program recognizes the challenge disaster fails to happen; the latter Global Safety (G-Safety), run of mainstreaming messages to leaves itself open to accusations by the recently established promote disaster risk response, of failing to prepare and of acting interdisciplinary International and it has enlisted the cultural expensively and too late. But how Research Institute for Disaster sector via Herbie Hancock to

74 Science and Emotion: Using Technical Information in Practice help spread these messages. capacity for resilience. The social Yasuhito Jibiki, Assistant Professor, This intelligent use of culture for sciences are a core part of that International Research Institute of disaster risk response recognizes effort, but new interdisciplinary Disaster Science, Tohoku University the way people engage with or transdisciplinary methods and Irina Rafliana, Public Policy, Education narratives that are potentially approaches are likely at the heart and Science Communication, Indonesian Institute of Sciences difficult to entertain or deal with. of making it a success.

It is clear that there would be Endnotes enormous benefits to developing a Contributors to the session 1 P. Jarzabkowski, R. Bednarek, and A. P. deeper and broader understanding Paula Jarzabkowski, Professor of Spee, Making a Market for Acts of God: of what it means to be human Strategic Management at CASS The Practice of Risk-Trading in the Global Business School, City University Reinsurance Industry (Oxford: Oxford throughout the range of University Press, forthcoming). disaster risk response efforts, David Tuckett, Professor in including the world of finance and Psychoanalysis and Director of the 2 For more on the role of games and Centre for the Study of Decision- gameplay in understanding risk, see reinsurance. Developing a method Making Uncertainty, University College “GAME OVER: Exploring the Complexity of Actionable Information through Gaming” for understanding the human London

and “Game Time: Monitoring Changing Psychology of Risk and social elements of disaster Pablo Suarez, Associate Director for Riskscapes with GEM and SENSUM Tools” in this publication. risk response is critical if we are Research and Innovation, Red Cross/ to make sense of the human Red Crescent Climate Centre

Photo: George Doyle & Ciaran Griffin 75 Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum

Photo: Phil76 Ashley Thinking Fast and Slow Why Catastrophe Risks Lead Us to Behave Differently

Dr. Howard Kunreuther, Co-director, Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

Thirty years ago, large-scale Figure 1. Natural catastrophes worldwide, 1980–2013: natural disasters were considered Overall and insured losses (US$ billion). rare events. Between 1970 and Psychology of Risk the mid-1980s, annual insured 350 losses from natural disasters 300 worldwide (including forest fires) 250 were only in the $3 billion to $4 billion range. In fact, Hurricane 200 Hugo, which struck in 1989, was 150 the first natural disaster in the 100 United States to inflict more than 50 $1 billion of insured losses. 0 Times have changed, and we now 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 find ourselves managing risks in n n a new era of catastrophes. As Overall losses (2013 values)* Of which insured losses (2013 values)* shown in figure 1, economic and Trend: Overall losses Trend: Insured losses insured losses from earthquakes, * Values adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Index (CPI) of each country. hurricanes, and floods have Source: © Munich Re, Topics Geo: Natural Catastrophes 2013—Analyses, Assessments, increased significantly in recent Positions, 2014, http://www.munichre.com/site/corporate/get/documents_E1043212252/ mr/assetpool.shared/Documents/5_Touch/_Publications/302-08121_en.pdf. Used with years, primarily due to a higher permission; further permission required for reuse. degree of urbanization and an increase in the value of property at risk of catastrophic occurrences, considerable discussion of this risk. In hazard-prone areas, these such as severe natural disasters, tendency at the Understanding changes translate into greater before these events take Risk Forum.1 concentration of exposed assets place. We cannot assume that and hence a higher likelihood of the massive destructiveness LP-HC events are subject to the catastrophic losses from future of an event will lead us to availability bias, where the judged disasters. appropriately respond to the risk. likelihood of an event depends To the contrary, we know that on its salience.2 There is thus a Studies of behavior with individuals often deviate from tendency for decision makers to respect to low probability–high expert assessments of risks that perceive the risks of a disaster consequence (LP-HC) events involve small probabilities and high to be below their threshold level provide lessons for managing the degrees of uncertainty. There was of concern, and as a result they

77 Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum do not pay attention to potential modes of behavior: intuitive experiencing large claims consequences so long as these (system 1) thinking and payments, only part of which can disasters do not occur. More deliberative (system 2) thinking. be spread or diversified away specifically, many homeowners through the law of large numbers in the United States buy flood System 1 thinking tends to be if losses are highly correlated. insurance only after suffering a fast and effortless. System 2 Decision makers in the insurance loss, and then cancel their policies thinking requires more time and industry and those involved in several years later if they have not attention. Intuitive thinking works insurance regulation, legislation, experienced any damage.3 It is very well for routine decisions but can and litigation are also likely to hard to convince policyholders that be problematic for LP-HC events, make mistakes for the same the best return on their insurance where there is limited opportunity reasons that consumers do. With is no return at all. One should to learn from personal experience. limited information from past celebrate not having had a serious There are additional problems if experience on which to base their loss rather than focusing on paying the consequences are not likely decisions, they often rely on their premiums that went for naught. to occur in the near term. For intuition rather than engaging example, individuals may disregard in deliberative thinking. Prior to With all these challenges to the impact climate change will 9/11, for example, insurance losses decision making, consideration have on sea-level rise and future from terrorism were viewed as so of ways to improve the choice damage from floods and hurricanes improbable that the risk was not process may be helpful, even as we because these consequences are explicitly mentioned or priced in recognize the obstacles to changing seen as part of a distant future. any standard commercial policy. behavior. We must employ slow Following the terrorist attacks in and careful thinking, coupled with Households in hazard-prone the United States, most insurers short-term incentives, to create areas may decide not to purchase and reinsurers refused to offer policies, procedures, laws, and insurance against LP-HC events coverage against terrorism. There institutions that will nudge or even because they have had limited or was a tendency to focus on the require us to behave in ways that no experience with them. Trying losses from a worst-case scenario accord with our considered values to determine the likelihood and without adequately reflecting for protecting human lives and consequences of the risks they on the likelihood of this event property. pose is also costly and time- occurring in the future.

We must employ slow and careful thinking, coupled with Recognizing the pitfalls of fast short-term incentives, to create policies, procedures, intuitive thinking in dealing laws, and institutions that will nudge or even require with extreme events, we offer us to behave in ways that accord with our considered below two guiding principles for values for protecting human lives and property. insurance and two strategies for encouraging long-term deliberative The tools for understanding risk consuming. Instead, residents thinking. Adopting them should build on the distinction between often rely on feelings and intuition help us to protect ourselves intuitive and deliberative thought rather than careful thought in against potentially catastrophic processes described by Nobel making decisions on whether to risks before it is too late. laureate Daniel Kahneman in his protect themselves against the thought-provoking book, Thinking, financial consequences of suffering The guiding principles for insurance Fast and Slow.4 Building on a large a loss from a natural disaster. are these: body of cognitive psychology and behavioral-decision research, On the supply side, insurance Insurance premiums should Kahneman characterizes two companies face the risk of reflect risk. Risk-based

78 GAME OVER? Exploring the Complexity of Actionable Information through Gaming

Photo: Phil Ashley

premiums signal the type and this fashion leads individuals to Margareta Drzeniek-Hanouz, Director magnitude of hazards individuals take protective measures. and Lead Economist, World Economic Forum face and encourage investment Provide short-term incentives to Alex Wittenberg, Partner, Oliver in cost-effective loss reduction encourage protective behavior. Wyman/ Marsh & McLennan measures through a reduction Require property insurance in Dr. Erwann Michel-Kerjan, Executive in insurance costs. hazard-prone areas and offer Director, Wharton Risk Management Equity and affordability issues long-term loans for investing and Decision Processes Center, should be addressed. Any in protection to avoid the high the Wharton School, University of financial assistance given to upfront cost. The premium Pennsylvania individuals currently residing reduction from reducing the in hazard-prone areas (e.g., risk should be larger than the Endnotes low-income homeowners) cost of the loan if the protective 1 On this point see also D. M. Cutler and should come from general measure is a cost-effective one. R. Zeckhauser, “Extending the Theory to Meet the Practice of Insurance,” public funding and not through From a financial point of view, in Brookings-Wharton Papers on insurance premium subsidies. everyone—even those who Financial Services, ed. R. Herring and engage in short-term thinking— R. E. Litan, 1–53 (Washington, DC: The suggested strategies for Brookings Institution Press, 2004); should want to adopt such deliberative thinking are these: and H. Kunreuther, M. V. Pauly, and S. measures. McMorrow, Insurance and Behavioral Economics: Improving Decisions in the Stretch the time horizon for Most Misunderstood Industry (New York: Contributors to the session Cambridge University Press, 2013). a particular risk. Rather than 2 A. Tversky and D. Kahneman, “Availability: telling homeowners that there Lead: Dr. Howard Kunreuther, A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and is a 1-in-100 chance next Co-director, Wharton Risk Probability,” Cognitive Psychology 5, no. 1 year of damage from a severe Management and Decision (1973): 207–33. hurricane, reframe the same Processes Center, the Wharton 3 E. Michel-Kerjan, S. Lemoyne de Forges, and H. Kunreuther, “Policy Tenure probability and say that there School, University of Pennsylvania under the U.S. National Flood Insurance is a greater than 1-in-5 chance Program,” Risk Analysis 32, no. 4 (2012): 644–58. of hurricane damage in the next Panelists 4 D. Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow 25 years. Empirical studies have Scott Belden, Senior Vice President, (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, shown that presenting data in Travelers Companies 2011).

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Photo: sarathsasidharan80 Changing the Risk Paradigm Reducing Losses and Exploiting Opportunities

Dr. Emily Wilkinson, Research Fellow, Overseas Development Institute

Introduction analysis, which is used elsewhere in wider economic benefits and public policy to inform investment opportunities of DRM investments. Do risk assessments shape public decisions, and particularly capital If we figure out how the analysis Psychology of Risk investment decisions? Can they investments, is not helping to of DRM costs and benefits can be used to leverage further promote ex ante risk management better capture these co-benefits, development benefits? These measures. The problem is that we can begin to shift the narrative are important questions for the these studies often compare away from focusing on losses Understanding Risk community and apples and oranges: $1 now in toward promoting action. in particular for those interested this investment period, during the in decision-making and public current administration, versus investment related to disaster risk $4 when a disaster occurs in an Case Studies management (DRM). unknown future, when someone Risk assessment is the foundation else will have to pay out. When of good DRM, but according to budgets are stretched there is Background/Concepts heavy competition for funds, and Jolanta Kryspin-Watson, Senior dollars saved on disaster recovery DRM Specialist and Regional Whether disaster risk and might not be your dollars. DRM Coordinator at the World climate change vulnerability Bank, often one needs more assessments work in changing Nonetheless, there are useful than a risk assessment to trigger investment patterns is not entirely examples of where studies and action and investment decisions. clear. Communities of donors, disaster risk models have been In large cities like Istanbul and researchers, and practitioners influential. The key to effective Metro Manila, the risk reduction are certainly wasting a lot of uptake has a number of dimensions needs may seem overwhelming, money if risk assessments are not and is probably specific to the and governments have to take actually informing decision making. context and the scale at which decisions on where to start. According to Kamal Kishore of risk is being studied; but generic Methodologies therefore need the United Nations Development characteristics of a good risk to be developed for ranking and Programme (UNDP), a significant assessment include high levels of prioritizing investments with percentage of internationally engagement with the end-users all parties involved: financiers, supported risk assessments from the start. Process is as beneficiaries, and technical staff. undertaken as part of disaster risk important as the final product.A reduction capacity development related issue is how the loss- However, if a large event has not programs are not used for decision centered focus of DRM could occurred for a long time, disaster making. Critically, cost-benefit be reformulated to consider the risk is not part of the public psyche.

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The question in this case centers the need to spend money on shifts, in part because 15 to 20 on “if” an event will happen, not risk transfer when there may years ago, most governments were the magnitude of costs. Schools be nothing to show (no hazard not basing their priorities for DRM in Manila are vulnerable to event) during that fiscal year. on risk assessments. Since then earthquakes, and the moral aspects This situation is more difficult governments themselves have of protecting children catches when it comes to investment in realized that stronger evidence is the attention of governments infrastructure for mitigation and needed for making decisions. Most and communities. According to risk reduction, which implies larger disaster risk reduction programs the recently conducted study,1 expenditures. These attitudes now include a component on retrofitting just 5 percent of the are beginning to change thanks disaster risk assessments. However, most vulnerable schools (about to a high-magnitude event and a risk assessments often remain only 200) could result in saving 25 federal government decision to one of the several “components” percent of the student population invest in protective infrastructure. of programming, rather than (about 7,000 children). If the After the Tabasco floods in the foundation for all the other seismic retrofitting expanded to 40 2007, the Mexican government elements. As a result, underuse percent of most vulnerable schools invested heavily in flood defense of risk assessments remains a (about 1,500 buildings), this could throughout the state to protect problem. bring an estimated 80 percent farmland, infrastructure, and reduction in potential fatalities housing from recurrent floods. To have any impact, risk (19,000 lives saved). This is a very Three years later a similar level assessments undertaken (or compelling argument to prompt of rainfall occurred, but these commissioned) by UNDP need governments to take action. In investments helped prevent to respond to the development Istanbul, 800 public buildings have damage. Loss reduction was aspirations of the country. They been retrofitted through a World three times larger than the cost need to address multiple hazards; Bank–supported project, and this of building flood defenses. The in fact, an approach based on successful program increased benefits in loss avoidance are not a single hazard will quickly run retrofitting investments for public usually visible within the same into problems. A careful balance facilities by at least threefold. As political term, but studying cases also needs to be struck between observed in Turkey, retrofitting like Tabasco is helping to make building local capacity through the could also bring additional these benefits more visible and risk assessment (to undertake important benefits, such as a change views toward investments studies in the future and interpret reduction in energy consumption, of this kind. the data) and a service delivery which would help the environment approach. Post-disaster recovery as well as reducing risks. All these UNDP’s experience working on and particularly resettlement opportunities and potential benefits DRM has gone through some major planning after major events provide need to be well presented to a unique opportunity to promote decision makers so that they look the use of risk assessments for beyond simply the possibility of an Some questions posed during the making critical decisions. In most earthquake occurring in the next session: How do you create public cases, however, risk assessments demand for disaster risk reduction? 100 years. take too long in the aftermath of a Is the lack of investment in DRM disaster, and affected communities just a communication problem? In Mexico, CAT bonds and other often rebuild in high-risk areas in Is a new narrative needed for financial tools have been developed the development community to the meantime. to finance reconstruction, but take risk seriously? Should risk this annual expenditure is not assessments conform to some Research conducted by a group of without its critics. Not everyone minimum standards or principles? Latin American academics for the in government is convinced of Climate and Development Knowl-

82 Changing the Risk Paradigm: Reducing Losses and Exploiting Opportunities edge Network (CDKN) has also shed such as water and agriculture. understanding of the potential light on some common obstacles to Reducing disaster risk should co-benefits is needed, along with a the uptake of risk assessments in always be considered alongside better sense of how policy design public investment decisions.2 Risk other priorities and the need to and implementation shape these assessments have had little impact invest and take risks in order to outcomes. This evidence can then on DRM practice when they are car- develop—which suggests once be used to deliver a compelling ried out as separate projects—that again that risk assessments need logic to decision makers, so is, when they do not form part of a both to be more holistic in scope that investing in DRM is seen as broader risk management process and to target critical sectors. beneficial regardless of whether a that involves decision makers at disaster occurs. different scales. More attention needs to be paid to the way that Conclusions Contributors to the session assessments are presented to de- So how can we go beyond a Lead: Tom Mitchell, Head of Climate cision makers, and this may require loss-centric view of DRM and a Change, Overseas Development “translation” of risk information Institute negative discourse to an approach into concrete recommendations for Panelists that captures the wider range of Psychology of Risk priorities and actions. benefits associated with building Jolanta Kryspin-Watson, Senior resilience? In addition, from a Disaster Risk Management Specialist, More generally, risk assessments political economy perspective, World Bank Group, East Asia and the and DRM should be seen as part what is the best way to encourage Pacific of a broader process of reducing decision makers to consider Juan Miguel Adaya Valle, Director of risk through development planning disaster and climate risks and Risk Analysis, Ministry of Finance and and investment, one that engages Public Credit, Mexico incentivize greater investment end-users by design, not as an in risk management? It seems Kamal Kishore, Program Adviser, United Nations Development Programme, Bureau for Crisis To develop more holistic risk assessments and methods Prevention and Recovery for cost-benefit analysis, a deeper understanding of Emily Wilkinson, Research Fellow, the potential co-benefits is needed, along with a better Overseas Development Institute sense of how policy design and implementation shape Swenja Surminski, Senior Research these outcomes. This evidence can then be used to Fellow, Grantham Research Institute, deliver a compelling logic to decision makers, so that London School of Economics and Political Science investing in DRM is seen as beneficial regardless of whether a disaster occurs. Endnotes 1 World Bank, The Philippine Safe and afterthought. Scale is critical here; clear that the co-benefits of Resilient Infrastructure Program: the complexity of data and scale particular DRM initiatives and Development of Earthquake of analysis should be consistent investments need to be better Strengthening Guidelines and Prioritization Methodology (Washington, with the level at which decisions understood. Reducing risk in DC: World Bank, 2014). about development need to be one location may undermine the 2 E. Wilkinson and A. Brenes, “Risk- taken. Researchers found that risk resilience of particular groups Informed Decision-Making: An Agenda assessments tended to succeed in another, so linking “types” of for Improving Risk Assessments under in informing decisions on how to DRM investments to particular HFA2,” Climate and Development Knowledge Network, London, 2014, allocate funds when they were social and economic benefits is http://cdkn.org/2014/04/report-an- targeted at the specific sectors key. To develop more holistic risk agenda-for-risk-informed-decision- making/. that are most affected by disaster assessments and methods for and that are natural allies of DRM, cost-benefit analysis, a deeper

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Photo: Design84 Pics Science, Politics, and What We Value How Big Is the Risk of Climate Change?

Simon Sharpe, Head of Climate Risk Team at Science, Innovation and Climate Department, Foreign and Commonwealth Office Psychology of Risk

Decisions made about adapting 4. Carry out continual to climate change increasingly reassessment of the risk. make use of risk assessment 5. Cater for human factors as a matter of course. As the by taking into account the Intergovernmental Panel on possibility of human error and Climate Change (IPCC) recently the risks arising from human pointed out, risk assessment could behavior. be equally relevant to decisions about climate change mitigation.1 6. Take account of uncertainty But what would a mitigation- by ensuring that the risks relevant climate risk assessment with the largest impacts look like? This session suggested a are considered, even if their possible framework. probability is very low or is itself uncertain. According to Trevor Maynard, any risk assessment should follow In a climate change risk these key principles: assessment, the “best available information” includes political as 1. Concentrate effort on the well as scientific analysis, because the scale of the risk depends largest risks. considerably on policy choices 2. Base analysis on the best regarding carbon emissions. available information: where Analysis by Dr. Bill Hare shows science is available, use it. that the aggregate effect of all countries’ current policies is to 3. Avoid the dangers of keep the world on a pathway of averaging, which can high and rising carbon emissions. understate or obscure Projections indicate that, absent extreme risks. further and substantial policy

85 Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum action, emissions will continue to technology or the economic costs while the median estimate for the increase. One of the main drivers (see figure 1). Current policies put high emissions pathway RCP 8.5 in of increases in the future is the the world on an emissions pathway this study may be a temperature carbon intensity of the energy where the middle estimate of increase of around 5.5°C by 2100, system: substantial decreases in temperature increase by the end this pathway also has a significant carbon intensity, sustained over of this century is around 3.7°C, probability of exceeding 7°C (see many decades, are needed for the with a 35–40 percent chance of figure 2). world to get onto a 2°C pathway. exceeding 4°C.2 Trends at present are in the wrong Jason Lowe explained that these direction: whereas the carbon For any emissions pathway, the estimates did not include the intensity of the global energy degree of temperature rise is effect of many Earth system supply decreased from the 1970s highly uncertain. Professor Jason feedbacks (other than the carbon until around 2000, in the last Lowe showed that according cycle–climate interactions), which decade it has begun to increase to a probability distribution of could increase temperatures again, driven by increases in coal equilibrium climate sensitivity, further. A first attempt to quantify use in a number of regions. which was estimated by combining this additional temperature information from observation and increase for RCP2.6, the low The analysis shows further a range of complex climate models, emissions pathway, yielded a that achieving a low-emissions the very low emissions pathway— central estimate of around 0.5°C pathway consistent with limiting Representative Concentration added to the median warming, climate change to below 2°C is Pathway (RCP) 2.6—may have within a wide range—from a very still possible, but it will depend a 50 percent chance of limiting slight reduction in warming to far more on the timing of political temperature rise to 2°C, but it also additional warming of more than action to reduce emissions than has a chance (perhaps 5 percent) of 1°C. Even these estimates do on either the availability of exceeding 3°C by 2100. Moreover, not take account of the potential

Figure 1. Probability of limiting temperature increase to 2°C as a function of carbon price, for high, medium, and low energy demand pathways. Shaded bands and the double-sided arrow show how this probability is affected by technological uncertainty; other arrows show how it is affected by delaying significant political action until 2030, in this model represented by imposing an equivalent global carbon price.

1 0.9 0.8 0.7 range of technological uncertainty 0.6 0.5 0.4 effect of delayed action until 2030 0.3 0.2 Probability of staying below 2°C immediate action 0.1 delayed action until 2015 0 1 10 100 1,000 delayed action until 2020 intermediate future energy demand delayed action until 2025 2012 carbon price (US$ tCO e-1) low future energy demand 2 delayed action until 2030 high future energy demand

Source: J. Rogelj et al.., “Probabilistic Cost Estimates for Climate Change Mitigation,” Nature 493 (2013): 79–83. © J. Rogelj. Used with permission; further permission required for reuse.

86 Science, Politics, and What We Value: How Big Is the Risk of Climate Change?

Figure 2. Probability of temperature increase by 2100 for the emissions of the of the world and can be fatal. four Representative Concentration Pathways used by the IPCC, as estimated by a However, in the present combination of complex climate models. climate, no place on Earth ever experiences conditions that exceed wet-bulb 0.8 RCP 2.6 temperatures of 35°C, when RCP 4.5 any prolonged exposure (even RCP 6.0 resting in the shade, while 0.6 RCP 8.5 doused with water) would be fatal.4 These conditions would 0.4 be expected in some parts of the world with a temperature

Cumulative probability increase of 7°C, and across 0.2 large regions with an increase of 10°C above present levels (see figure 3). 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Psychology of Risk Temperature increase in 2100 (°C) Rachel Kyte closed the session by Source: Met Office Hadley Centre, AVOID program. observing that the time has come feedback effect of methane this risk, but depending on when critical choices affecting the hydrates, which has not yet been how high and how fast sea human future must be made. In quantified but which could increase level rises, some less well- order to make these choices, both individually and collectively, we warming even further. defended coastal cities may need to have a full understanding encounter limits to their of the risks. Estimates of the Humans are uniquely able to adapt ability to adapt. to changes in our environment. But economic costs of climate change as Professor Alistair Woodward 2. As a consequence of plant are improving; but as Rachel Kyte explained, systemic risks such as explained, this capability is not biology, crops have upper the disruption of food markets, unlimited. He gave three examples limits to the temperatures state failure, uncontrolled of where humans might bump up they can tolerate. Breeding migration, and conflict are better against these limits: more heat-tolerant varieties understood in terms of human of the major crops has cost than in terms of economic 1. While sea level rises gradually, so far proved difficult. As cost. How to value human cost is the risk of flooding can temperatures rise, these limits inescapably an ethical and moral increase exponentially. For may be exceeded—causing choice. Risk has been defined as example, the Thames Barrier crop failure—with increasing “the effect of uncertainty on is designed to protect London frequency. In the medium objectives.”5 The question remains: from a 1-in-1,000-year storm to long term, this situation What are our objectives for the surge. With 50cm of sea-level could threaten the health future of humanity? rise, the frequency of such a and viability of many human storm surge would increase settlements. to once in 120 years, and Contributors to the session 3. The human body has an upper with 1m of sea-level rise, it Trevor Maynard, Head of Exposure would increase to about once limit to the degree of heat Management and Reinsurance, Lloyds every 12 years.3 London has stress it can tolerate. Heat of London extensive plans in place to stress already limits outdoor Dr. Bill Hare, Director, Climate adapt its defenses to manage labor productivity in hot parts Analytics

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Figure 3. Peak annual wet-bulb temperature in a climate where global average temperature is 10°C above the present temperature. The upper limit of human physiological tolerance for heat stress is reached at a wet-bulb temperature of about 35°C.

Source: S. C. Sherwood and M. Huber, “An Adaptability Limit to Climate Change due to Heat Stress,” PNAS (2010): 9552–55. © S. C. Sherwood and M. Huber. Used with permission; further permission required for reuse.

Professor Alistair Woodward, Endnotes 3 Data are from Proudman Oceanographic Professor of Epidemiology and Laboratory, as cited in From Ice to 1 IPCC, “Summary for Policymakers,” High Seas: Sea-Level Rise and European Biostatistics, University of Auckland in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Coastlines, ice2sea Consortium, Professor Jason Lowe, Head of Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part Cambridge, UK, 2013, http://www.ice2sea. A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. eu/2013/05/14/from-ice-to-high-seas/. Knowledge Integration and Mitigation Contribution of Working Group II to Advice, UK Met Office Hadley Centre the Fifth Assessment Report of the 4 Wet-bulb temperature is “the lowest temperature that can be obtained by Rachel Kyte, Vice President and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. C. B. Field et al. (Cambridge evaporating water into the air.” NOAA’s Special Envoy for Climate Change, and New York: Cambridge University National Weather Service, “Glossary,” World Bank Group Press, 2013). http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index. php?letter=w. 2 These estimates do not take account of the Earth system feedbacks, which are 5 The definition is used by the International discussed in the following section. Organization for Standardization.

Further resources

Glen P. Peters et al., “The Challenge to Keep Global Warming below 2 °C,” Nature Climate Change 3 (2013). Berta Sánchez, Anton Rasmussen, and John R. Porter, “Temperatures and the Growth and Development of Maize and Rice: A Review,” Global Change Biology 20, no. 2 (2014): 408–17. Tim Reeder, Jon Wicks, Luke Lovell, and Owen Tarrant, “Protecting London from Tidal Flooding: Limits to Engineering Adaptation,” in Adapting to Climate Change: Thresholds, Values, Governance, ed. W. Neil Adger, Irene Lorenzoni, and Karen L. O’Brien, 54–63 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009). Nick Stern, “The Structure of Economic Modeling of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change: Grafting Gross Underestimation of Risk onto Already Narrow Science Models,” Journal of Economic Literature 51, no. 3 (2013): 838–59. Oliver Bettis, “Risk Management and Climate Change: Risk of Ruin,” Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London, 2014.

88 Antartic iceberg. Photo: goinyk 89 Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum Building Resilience

Gawad Kalinga90 (“give care”) volunteers help build brightly painted colorful homes in sustainable communities for poorest of the poor and displaced families after typhoon Yolanda. Photo: Danilo Victoriano GAME OVER? Exploring the Complexity of Actionable Information through Gaming Building Resilience

Back to the Drawing Board [page 93]

The Role of Ecosystems in Reducing Risk: Advances and Opportunities in Risk Assessment and Risk Management [page 97]

How Might Emerging Technology Strengthen Urban Resilience? [page 105]

91 Photo: Michal92 Rozewski Back to the Drawing Board

Hayley Gryc, Associate, Arup International Development Dr. Damian Grant, Associate, Arup Advanced Technology Professor Robin Spence, Director, Cambridge Architectural Research Ltd. Dr. Matthew Free, Director, Arup Geohazard and Risk Management Jo da Silva, Director, Arup International Development

Introduction Building Standards and training, as well as legislation and enforcement. One recurring In delivering the ninth Brunel Damage to buildings and problem with building codes is that Lecture on behalf of the infrastructure as a result of they are often overly complex, Institution of Civil Engineers in natural disasters often stems which hinders the ability and Building Resilience 2012, Jo da Silva, the director of from the failure to adhere to willingness of the construction Arup International Development, an appropriate building code. In industry, developers, and offered two key messages. First, the 2010 Haiti earthquake, over government to adopt them. much of the increase in risk now 300,000 people were killed when taking place is concentrated in buildings collapsed; but a month Even appropriately designed urban settings, and we need later, a much more powerful building codes alone, however, are earthquake in Chile killed less than to pay more attention to the not enough to prevent damage. a thousand people and resulted role the built environment plays Avoiding areas with high levels in the collapse of far fewer in enhancing or compromising of exposure and preserving buildings. This difference was due the resilience of communities, natural defenses are both critical to Chile’s rigorous enforcement particularly in rapidly growing to reducing the risk to natural of its building code since a towns and cities. Second, hazards. Land-use plans and series of earthquakes struck in planning guidelines are therefore as uncertainty is a reality, whether the 1960s. In Haiti, where no important as, if not more important it is due to climate change or significant earthquake had hit than, building codes for reducing the complexity of our cities, and since 1942, building regulations exposure and vulnerability. it is therefore harder to pursue were nonexistent and construction traditional risk management quality was very poor. Building Performance practices that start with understanding (and quantifying) Building codes are recognized Modern building codes still do not risk in order to prevent or mitigate as important mechanisms for focus on resilience, understood as its consequences.1 reducing disaster risk. But they the ability of an organization or are effective only if they are community to recover quickly after These messages remain relevant current, if they reflect local forms an earthquake. In fact, the basic today as engineers and planners of construction and perceptions objective of these codes has not rethink how they communicate risk of risk, and if they are part of a really changed in over 50 years, and how they design to mitigate risk. wider culture of safety, education, when the first modern seismic

93 Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum codes were introduced. Their main works of art; damage to a space practice approaches, or creating purpose is to safeguard against observatory in Chile may result new approaches as needed. loss of life, not necessarily to limit in the failure to image a once- damage or maintain functionality in-a-lifetime astronomical event. Casualties after a design-level earthquake. All of these will be considered A design-level earthquake on the unacceptable risks. Performance The last decade witnessed the West Coast of the United States objectives should therefore be highest annual death rate from generally has around a 500-year part of the initial conversation earthquake-related disasters over return period, though this varies between client and engineer. the last 100 years. Allowing for from location to location. Building Moreover, it must be remembered population growth, the statistics codes allow structural damage that seismic performance issues show that in richer countries as long as people can safely exit go beyond individual buildings to the death rate has been sharply the building. In fact, to protect the related physical and social reduced, but in poorer countries, people, the building code relies on infrastructure; there is no use there is no evidence of any significant damage to dissipate having an office or data center sustained reduction in the death energy and reduce the earthquake that is fully occupiable and ready rate. Despite vast improvements forces on the building. for business if there is no water in earthquake science and or electricity available, or if the engineering knowledge, “Life safety” therefore entails employees are injured in their the number of casualties in significant damage to both homes and cannot return to work. earthquakes has continued to structural and nonstructural rise decade on decade; and given building elements. This damage Engineers are now developing current patterns of uncontrolled may not be acceptable in all cases, tools to better compute and urbanization, we face the prospect and may not be what the client, communicate expected seismic of a “million-death earthquake” in public, or other stakeholders were performance to stakeholders.2 the not-too-distant future. expecting. Acceptable seismic These tools will help owners, performance is case-specific. For engineers, and architects achieve Though tsunamis have been a critical manufacturing facility, “beyond-code” resilience objectives responsible for most casualties significant building downtime may by identifying limitations in the in the last decade, in most other mean relocation of many people traditional code approach; they earthquake events, the vast or inability to carry out business; involve adopting some codified majority of casualties were the damage to a historic church may criteria for essential facilities, result of building collapse. Factors result in the loss of irreplaceable adopting non-codified best- affecting the mortality rate in any

Case Studies

In 2013 Arup undertook a project to reduce the risk and strengthen the resilience of Turks and Caicos Islands by improving the quality of the built environment. Hurricane Ike in 2008 had highlighted the critical influence of both the natural and manmade environment on the risks posed by natural hazards. According to a United Nations survey, a substantial reason for the damage sustained was that the building code was out of date. Big gaps also existed in the planning regulations. Both these issues characterize many small island developing nations globally, but they are capable of quite rapid improvement. In the case of Turks and Caicos Islands, the project to reduce risk and strengthen resilience sought both to update the building code and create a road map to address gaps relating to physical planning and environmental sustainability. Using the International Building Code as a reference, the existing building code was updated. It now reflects local forms of construction and perceptions of risk, and hence is applicable, accessible, and relevant. The project identified key issues that could affect the extent to which the code would contribute to reducing risk, and offered simple, practical solutions to the government.

94 Back to the Drawing Board one event are the type of building environment and society together, of risk and allows risk management and mode of collapse, the pattern and the infrastructure that strategies to be engineered. and sequence of earthquake permits the emergency services to ground motion, the time of day of respond. Geographic information Conclusion the event, occupants’ behavior, system (GIS) models of the built and the effectiveness of search environment, the occupants, Based on an increased and rescue. With all these factors and other geographical context understanding of risk, practitioners in play, predicting likely casualty provide a useful tool for gaining are pushing forward the frontiers rates in future events is difficult. an improved understanding of risk of engineering practice to focus and for engineering effective risk on reducing vulnerability and Reducing casualty rates in the management strategies. fostering resilient communities. future will depend on improving Both environmental policy and the quality of design and Natural disasters (earthquakes, building regulations play an construction for the building stock floods, wind storms) are important part in reducing risk. in earthquake-prone areas. The uncommon, but they can be principal target must be the poorly investigated by modelling events As engineers come to better built multistory housing in rapidly that impact different areas, occur understand the performance of urbanizing developing countries, over different ground conditions, buildings, they are able to reduce such as Iran, Colombia, Nepal, and follow population growth, or take damage and in this way promote Turkey. To help achieve this goal, a place at different times of day business continuity and lower Building Resilience five-point plan is proposed: or night. This approach offers the cost of repairs. As they come lessons about hazards and risks, to better understand human 1. Improve codes of practice for and permits appropriate risk behaviors and capacity, moreover, design of new buildings. management strategies to be they will be able to take timely and appropriate action to reduce risk 2. Improve building control. engineered. These GIS models are most effective when built and to communicate risk through 3. Implement safe building from the bottom up, with the spatial modelling of urban areas. programs for non-engineered individual buildings, infrastructure buildings. components, and their Contributors to the session 4. Strengthen programs for connectivity and dependencies Jo da Silva, Director, Arup high-risk buildings. defined using parameters based on International Development 5. Guide future urban the results of engineering analysis that begin back on the engineer’s Dr. Damian Grant, Associate, Arup development. Advanced Technology drawing board. Professor Robin Spence, Director, Modelling Cambridge Architectural Research Ltd. The performance of people Several important elements in these analytical models is Dr. Matthew Free, Director, Arup Geohazard and Risk Management connect many of the risk- traditionally defined using empirical contributing factors highlighted data (i.e., statistics of casualties Endnotes above, including their geographic observed as a result of an dimension, the distribution of earthquake). However, engineers 1 For a discussion of the challenge of assessing risk in rapidly evolving urban buildings of different types, the can now also effectively model settings, see “Rome May Not Have Been distribution of the population avatars of people in the built Built in a Day, but Urban Exposure Now Changes Daily” in this publication. day and night, the distribution of environment to investigate the businesses and other activities, the behavior of populations during 2 An example is Arup’s REDi Rating System connectivity of the infrastructure defined events, an innovation that guidelines, available at http://publications. arup.com/Publications/R/REDi_Rating_ that joins the elements of the built leads to improved understanding System.aspx.

95 A man-made forest helps restore an ecosystem damaged by quarrying operations. Healthy forests lower soil erosion, decrease river sediment loads, and protect against flash floods. Photo: Danilo Victoriano The Role of Ecosystems in Reducing Risk Advances and Opportunities in Risk Assessment and Risk Management

Imen Meliane, Director, 7 Seas Foundation Mark Spalding, Senior Marine Scientist, Nature Conservancy Bregje van Wesenbeeck, Senior Adviser, Deltares

Borja G. Reguero, Postdoctoral Fellow, University of California–Santa Cruz and Building Resilience the Nature Conservancy Zach Ferdaña, Senior Marine Conservation Planner, Nature Conservancy Iñigo J. Losada, Research Director, Environmental Hydraulics Institute “IH Cantabria”

Introduction coastal cities up to US$1 trillion a year.1 These low-lying coastal areas Future coastal storms, flooding, house some of the most socially and sea-level rise will affect vulnerable people—those with millions of vulnerable people little ability to resist hazards or to along with critical infrastructure, recover from storm damage. industry, tourism, and trade. The significant losses to Investing in nature-based economies that we see today solutions—through conservation, will likely continue to increase enhancement, or restoration over the coming decades, of ecosystems—is often a cost- driven by coastal development effective option for increasing and changing hazards. A study resilience. Ecosystems, particularly estimates that between 2005 reefs and wetlands, prevent, and 2050, socioeconomic factors mitigate, and regulate hazards (e.g., (such as population growth and flooding, avalanches, heat waves) urbanization) alone will increase by acting as natural buffers and average annual global flood losses reducing people’s exposure; they ninefold, to US$52 billion a year. also reduce vulnerability to hazard With no adaptation, risks from sea- impacts by supporting livelihoods level rise and land subsidence could and economies and provisioning bring total flood damage for large key services (food, water, shelter)

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Decision makers face various challenges and trade-offs in addressing the multiple management objectives of nature conservation, economic development, and risk management. Interactive, scenario-based tools help them consider and integrate social, ecological, and economic considerations in adaptation and risk reduction planning; they also help to engage stakeholders in finding suitable solutions.

before, during, and after impacts.2 resilience strategies with potential such as by combining ecosystems’ While many of these functions long-term impacts. Addressing natural infrastructure with hard have been qualitatively described, underlying risk drivers like infrastructure like dikes to reduce there are fewer studies that environmental degradation is the the latter’s height.7 The challenge assess them quantitatively. least-implemented priority within is that there is still no consistent the Hyogo Framework for Action.6 approach to estimating the role As a result, risk reduction that nature plays in reducing risk functions of ecosystems are often Recently, momentum has grown and increasing resilience. Nor is unaccounted for in projections for using nature-based solutions there a clear way to account for of risk. Ecosystem loss and in resilience-building strategies, the additional benefits that nature degradation can lead to increased adaptation, and risk management provides for development. vulnerability and economic and portfolios. Interest from social losses.3 As a risk driver, communities, donors, and decision Case Studies ecosystem services condition the makers is increasing, leading to Advances in Quantifying Risk resilience of communities and more research and innovation in Reduction Ecosystem Services businesses, thereby influencing this arena. of Coastal Ecosystems whether disaster loss cascades into a wider range of long-run Experience has demonstrated Coastal ecosystems, particularly socioeconomic impacts.4 But the that reef and wetland restoration marshes, mangroves, and coral failure to account for this influence can be effectively combined with reefs, play a critical role in tends to hide the real cost of other approaches to reduce risk reducing the vulnerability of disasters5 and may lead to ill-fitting and financial costs of adaptation, communities to rising seas and

Figure 1. Coral reef and wave attenuation meta-analysis results. Values are the average percentage of wave height reduction and wave energy reduction in the three reef environments. Error bars represent a 95 percent confidence interval.

Wave height reduction Wave energy reduction 100 100

80 80

60 60

Percentage 40 Percentage 40

20 20

0 0 Reef crest (8) Reef flat (15) Whole reef (7) Reef crest (8) Reef flat (14) Whole reef (6) Reef environment (sample size) Reef environment (sample size)

Source: F. Ferrario, M. W. Beck, C. D. Storlazzi, F. Micheli, C. C. Shepard, and L. Airoldi, “The Effectiveness of Coral Reefs for Coastal Hazard Risk Reduction and Adaptation,” Nature Communications 5 (2014): 3794.

98 The Role of Ecosystems in Reducing Risk: Advances and Opportunities in Risk Assessment and Risk Management coastal hazards through their Mangroves can reduce storm different processes of wave roles in wave attenuation, vertical surge by slowing the flow of propagation and (as shown in accretion, erosion reduction, and water and reducing surface figure 2) flow and vegetation the mitigation of storm surge waves. Mangroves are particularly interaction at very fine and debris movement.8 There effective at reducing surface resolutions.20 is a growing understanding of wind waves, with reductions in the range of factors that affect wave height of 13–66 percent Ecological Engineering of the eficacy of these ecosystem after 100m of passage through Mangrove Mud Coasts 16 services in different locations, mangroves. They can also reduce Traditional protection from as well as of the management surge height by 5cm to 50cm per flooding—using structural 17 interventions that may restore kilometer of mangrove width. measures such as seawalls and or enhance their values. Recent Numerical models for wind waves dams—has often resulted in studies have quantified the risk and storm surges have greatly adverse or unforeseen impacts reduction functions of mangroves,9 increased our understanding of on both local and surrounding salt marshes,10 seagrasses,11 oyster these processes and the factors ecosystems.21 Often, hard- reefs,12 and coral reefs.13 Improved that influence the effectiveness of infrastructure solutions aggravate understanding and application mangroves in coastal protection in erosion problems and subsidence of such information will form a different settings.18 due to unanticipated interferences

critical part of coastal adaptation with sediment flows and soil Building Resilience planning, likely reducing the need Similar advances have been conditions.22 Moreover, they do not for expensive engineering options made for seagrass and salt revive the many additional values in some locations, and providing marsh communities, ranging and co-benefits of the lost coastal a complementary tool where from laboratory experiments, ecosystems. engineered structures are needed. to the early parameterizations of wave attenuation for coastal Engineers have recently begun Ferrario and coauthors analyzed vegetation,19 to sophisticated to experiment with “hybrid the role and cost-effectiveness models capable of modelling engineering” approaches in of coral reefs in risk reduction Figure 2. Examples of high-resolution numerical models globally.14 Their meta-analyses for the study of seagrasses in 2-D. revealed that coral reefs provide substantial protection against natural hazards by reducing wave energy by an average of 97 percent, and wave height by 84 percent, with reef crests playing the biggest role. They estimate that some 100 million people living below 10m elevation may receive risk reduction benefits from reefs—or bear higher risks and adaptation costs if reefs are degraded. By dissipating wave energy and influencing hydrodynamics, reefs play a role in the morphodynamics of adjacent Source: © M. Maza, J. L. Lara, and I. J. Losada. Used with permission; further permission beaches and control erosion.15 required for reuse.

99 Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum an attempt to address delta Coastal Resilience: An makers are able to understand their and coastal vulnerability in Interactive Decision Support risk and vulnerability, and identify an integrated manner and Tool appropriate nature-based solutions accommodate economic and to increase community resilience.26 Decision makers face various social development needs. challenges and trade-offs These approaches combine Coastal Risks, Nature-Based in addressing the multiple engineering techniques with Defenses, and the Economics management objectives of of Climate Adaptation natural ecosystems and processes, nature conservation, economic resulting in dynamic solutions that development, and risk management. The Nature Conservancy, in are more suitable to changing Interactive, scenario-based tools collaboration with Swiss Re and circumstances.23 In a recent help them consider and integrate ETH-Zurich, recently completed report, the U.S. Army Corps of social, ecological, and economic a probabilistic risk assessment in Engineers highlighted an array considerations in adaptation and the Gulf Coast. The assessment, of nature-based options for risk reduction planning; they also which followed the Economics for 27 integrated risk management.24 help to engage stakeholders in Climate Adaptation methodology, finding suitable solutions. Coastal examined the cost-effectiveness Hybrid approaches are being used Resilience is a web-based mapping of adaptation options, including in northern Central Java and decision support system backed ecosystem-based solutions, in coastal areas. Vietnam, where mangrove belts by the best available science.25 It have been promoted as a means lets planners, officials, managers, Factoring in different scenarios to enhance coastal resilience. But and communities evaluate various and timelines for hazards and mangroves can be successfully scenarios and cost implications climate change, socioeconomic restored only if the shoreline in a specific context, so they can assets, adaptation options, and morphology (sediment flows, visually appreciate the magnitude discounting policies, the study of their risks and identify solutions bathymetry, etc.) and connection analyzed the most relevant factors that do not compromise the of the system to the river are affecting risk reduction and found benefits that nature provides. The rehabilitated as well. With this that ecosystem-based solutions system has specific applications understanding, Deltares, Wetlands provide cost-efficient risk reduction that help identify where International, and the Indonesian across all scenarios (see figure 3). natural solutions can be used as government carried out a project However, they do not provide the alternatives to infrastructure. The in a location east of Semarang greatest risk reduction, particularly Risk Explorer app, for instance, that combined permeable in high-intensity events, which combines information on coastal structures (to break the waves points to the need for combining habitats and storm exposure and capture more sediment) with them with other risk reduction with social vulnerability to assess 28 engineering techniques such as strategies in these cases. where habitat loss may increase agitation dredging (to increase the risks along U.S. coasts. The Coastal Challenges amount of sediment suspended Defense app quantifies how in the water). This approach first natural habitats protect coastal Although recent years have stops the erosion process and areas by decreasing wave-induced seen impressive advances then allows the shoreline to be erosion and inundation. It uses in the analysis, design, and accreted to sufficient elevation standard engineering techniques implementation of nature- for mangroves to colonize to calculate the reduction of based solutions to climate and naturally. The new mangrove belt wave height and wave energy in disaster risks, a few challenges can further break the waves and these habitats. Armed with this and gaps remain. To enable the capture sediment in the long term. information, planners and decision full integration of ecosystem

100 The Role of Ecosystems in Reducing Risk: Advances and Opportunities in Risk Assessment and Risk Management

Figure 3. Benefit-cost curve for a scenario of coastal protection effectiveness and socioeconomic growth.

Source: Nature Conservancy. services into climate and disaster socioeconomic performances in and governments to further invest Building Resilience risk modelling, more field science multiple locations. In this way it in managing and restoring coastal is needed to better quantify risk will be possible both to scale up ecosystems as an integral part of reduction functions, and estimate successful interventions, and to avoid their adaptation and disaster risk averted losses by ecosystem mistakes or unforeseen impacts. management strategies. taking into account local settings. The design rules and testing Conclusions Contributors to the session protocols for ecosystems and their role in risk mitigation have Current and future scenarios Imen Meliane, Director, 7 Seas yet to be standardized in applying for climate impacts and disaster Foundation hybrid engineering approaches. risks have triggered a quest for Andrew Maskrey, Head of Risk Currently most studies focus on sustainable adaptation strategies Knowledge, UNISDR coastal protection functions, but that protect against hazards and Mark Spalding, Senior Marine the contribution of ecosystems strengthen the resilience of the Scientist, Nature Conservancy in reducing social vulnerability system overall. Ecosystem-based Fernando Mendez, Head of Marine and increasing socioeconomic approaches can be used to remedy Climate and Climate Change Group, resilience also needs to be the limitations of conventional Environmental Hydraulics Institute quantified. Moreover, as climate engineering, particularly in “IH Cantabria” change increases vulnerability highly exposed coastal areas. Iñigo Losada, Research Director, and even threatens the survival Recent implementations of Environmental Hydraulics Institute of certain ecosystems, constant these strategies demonstrate “IH Cantabria” management of ecosystem-based that nature-based defenses can Bregje van Wesenbeeck, Senior strategies will be required. be more sustainable and cost- Adviser, Deltares effective than conventional Zach Ferdaña, Senior Marine With the increase in testing and flood defenses, with additional Conservation Planner, Nature implementation of nature-based socioeconomic benefits. This result Conservancy approaches, it will be even more should stimulate further research Borja Reguero, Postdoctoral Fellow, important to model and monitor by engineers, managers, and University of California–Santa Cruz, the biophysical interactions and economists, and motivate donors and the Nature Conservancy

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Kalibo, Aklan, Philippines. The Bakhawan (mangrove) Eco-Park is a 75-hectare community based forest management project, a tourist attraction and the town’s first line of defense against strong surges. Photo: Danilo Victoriano

Endnotes 5 United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Möller, and M. Spalding, “The Response of Reduction, Global Assessment Report on Mangrove Soil Surface Elevation to Sea For a further look at the challenges of Disaster Risk Reduction (Geneva: UNISDR, Level Rise,” Natural Coastal Protection flood resilience, see “Can Flood Resilience 2011). Series, Report 3, Nature Conservancy, Be Measured?” in this publication. For a 6 United Nations Office for Disaster Risk University of Cambridge, and Wetlands discussion of flood modelling, see “‘Mission Reduction, Suggested Elements for the International, 2013. Impossible’: Using Global Flood Risk Post-2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Assessments for Local Decision Making” in 10 C. Shepard, C. Crain, and M. W. Beck, “The Reduction, 2014. this publication. Protective Role of Coastal Marshes: A 7 W. B. Borsje, B. K. van Wesenbeeck, F. Systematic Review and Meta-analysis,” 1 S. Hallegatte, C. Green, R. J. Nicholls, and Dekker, P. Paalvast, T. J. Bouma, M. M. PLoS ONE 6, no. 11 (2011): e27374. J. Corfee-Morlot, “Future Flood Losses van Katwijk, and M. B. De Vries, “How 11 Barbara Ondiviela, Inigo J. Losada, Javier in Major Coastal Cities,” Nature Climate Ecological Engineering Can Serve in Coastal Change 3 (2013): 802–6. L. Lara, Maria Maza, Cristina Galván, Tjeerd Protection,” Ecological Engineering 37 J. Bouma, and Jim van Belzen, “The Role 2 See W. N. Adger, T. P. Hughes, C. Folke, S. (2011): 113–22. of Seagrasses in Coastal Protection in a R. Carpenter, and J. Rockström, “Social- 8 M. D. Spalding, S. Ruffo, C. Lacambra, I. Changing Climate, ” Coastal Engineering 87 ecological Resilience to Coastal Disasters,” Meliane, L. Z. Hale, C. C. Shepard, and M. W. (2014): 158–68. Science 309 (2005): 1036–39; and F. Beck, “The Role of Ecosystems in Coastal Renaud, K. Sudmeier, and M. Estrella, 12 Nature Conservancy, “Re-engineering Protection: Adapting to Climate Change the Gulf of Mexico: Using Nearshore eds., The Role of Ecosystems in Disaster and Coastal Hazards,” Ocean and Coastal Wave Modeling to Abate Coastal Erosion Risk Reduction (Tokyo: United Nations Management 90 (2013): 50–57. University Press, 2013). by Prioritizing the Most Economically 9 A. L. McIvor, I. Möller, T. Spencer, and M. and Ecologically Valuable Sites for 3 K. K. Arkema, G. Guannel, G. Verutes, Spalding, “Reduction of Wind and Swell Restoration of Oyster Reefs, ” Nature S. A. Wood, A. Guerry, M. Ruckelshaus, Waves by Mangroves,” Natural Coastal Conservancy, 2012, http://coastalresilience. P. Kareiva, M. Lacayo, and J. M. Silver, Protection Series, Report 1, Nature org/geographies/gulf-mexico/coastal- “Coastal Habitats Shield People and Conservancy, University of Cambridge, and protection. Property from Sea-Level Rise and Wetlands International, 2012; A. L. 13 F. Ferrario, M. W. Beck, C. D. Storlazzi, F. Storms,” Nature Climate Change 3 (2013): McIvor, T. Spencer, I. Möller, and M. 913–18. Spalding, “Storm Surge Reduction by Man- Micheli, C. C. Shepard, and L. Airoldi, “The 4 United Nations Office for Disaster Risk groves,” Natural Coastal Protection Series, Effectiveness of Coral Reefs for Coastal Reduction, Suggested Elements for the Report 2, Nature Conservancy, University Hazard Risk Reduction and Adaptation,” Post-2015 Framework for Disaster Risk of Cambridge, and Wetlands Internation- Nature Communications 5 (2014): 3794. Reduction (Geneva: UNISDR, 2014). al, 2012; and A. L. McIvor, T. Spencer, I. 14 Ibid.

102 15 A. Ruiz de Alegria-Arzaburu, I. Mariño-Tapia, see F. J. Mendez and I. J. Losada, Engineering,” discussion paper, Deltares C. Enriquez, R. Silva, and M. Gonzalez-Leija, “An Empirical Model to Estimate the and Wetlands International, 2014. “The Role of Fringing Coral Reefs on Beach Propagation of Random Breaking and Non- 24 U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, “Coastal Risk Morphodynamics,” Geomorphology 198 breaking Waves over Vegetation Fields,” Reduction and Resilience,” CWTS 2013-3, (2013): 69–83. Coastal Engineering 52 (2004): 103–18. Directorate of Civil Works, U.S. Army Corps 16 McIvor et al., “Reduction of Wind and 20 For modelling of processes of wave of Engineers, Washington, DC, 2013. Swell Waves by Mangroves.” propagation, see Suzuki et al., “Wave 25 Z. A. Ferdaña, S. Newkirk, A. Whelchel, 17 McIvor et al., “Storm Surge Reduction by Dissipation by Vegetation.” For modelling B. Gilmer, and M. W. Beck, “Adapting to Mangroves.” of flow and vegetation interaction, see M. Climate Change: Building Interactive Maza, J. Lara, and I. J. Losada, “A Coupled Decision Support to Meet Management 18 For wind wave models, see P. Vo-Luong Model of Submerged Vegetation under and S. Massel, “Energy Dissipation in Non- Objectives for Coastal Conservation and Oscillatory Flow Using Navier–Stokes Hazard Mitigation on Long Island, New uniform Mangrove Forests of Arbitrary Equations,” Coastal Engineering 80 Depth,” Journal of Marine Systems 74, York, USA,” in Building Resilience to Climate (October 2013): 16–34, DOI: 10.1016/j. Change: Ecosystem-Based Adaptation and no. 1-2 (2008): 603–22; and T. Suzuki, coastaleng.2013.04.009. M. Zijlema, B. Burger, M. C. Meijer, and S. Lessons from the Field, ed. A. Andrade Narayan, “Wave Dissipation by Vegetation 21 B. K. Van Wesenbeeck, J. P. M. Mulder, D. J. Pérez, B. Herrera Fernandez, and R. with Layer Schematization in SWAN,” Reed, M. B. de Vries, H. J. de Vriend, and P. Cazzolla Gatti (Gland, Switzerland: IUCN, Coastal Engineering 59, no. 1 (2011): M. J. Herman, “Damming Deltas: A Practice 2010). 64–71. For storm surges models, see of the Past? Towards Nature-Based Flood 26 For more information, see the e.g. K. Zhang, H Liu, Y. Li, H. Xu, J. Shen, J. Defences,” Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Coastal Resilience website at www. Rhome, and T. J. Smith III, “The Role of Science 140 (2014): 1–6. coastalresilience.org. Mangroves in Attenuating Storm Surges,” 22 J. C. Winterwerp, W. G. Borst, and M. B. 27 Economics of Climate Adaptation, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 102 de Vries, “Pilot Study on the Erosion and “Shaping Climate-Resilient Development: A (2012): 11–23. Rehabilitation of a Mangrove Mud Coast,” Framework for Decision-Making,” Report 19 For laboratory experiments, see V. Journal of Coastal Research 21, no. 2 of the Economics of Climate Adaptation Stratigaki, E. Manca, P. Prinos, I. J. Losada, (2005): 223–31. Working Group, 2009. J. L. Lara, M. Sclavo, C. L. Amos, I. Caceres, 23 Han Winterwerp, Bregje van Wesenbeeck, 28 Nature Conservancy, “Coastal Risks and and A. Sanchez-Arcilla, “Large Scale Jan van Dalfsen, Femke Tonneijck, Apri Economics of Climate Adaptation in the US Experiments on Wave Propagation over Astra, Stefan Verschure, and Pieter van Gulf Coast,” forthcoming. Posidonia Oceanica, ” Journal of Hydraulic Eijk, “A Sustainable Solution for Massive Research, IAHR 49, Supplement 1 (2011): Coastal Erosion in Central Java: Towards 31–43. For the early parameterizations, Regional Scale Application of Hybrid

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Photo: American104 Red Cross How Might Emerging Technology Strengthen Urban Resilience?

American Red Cross British Red Cross International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

In an effort to explore how urban development increasing But any use of technology by technology can help meet the risk and impact of disasters, communities to strengthen emerging humanitarian needs, their resilience must be based mega-disasters are happening Building Resilience the Red Cross/Red Crescent is more frequently; and so-called on real-life situations. In other looking beyond the question of everyday crises and other stresses words, the starting point should how humanitarian organizations are heightening vulnerability and not be the technology, but rather themselves can adopt and adapt undermining coping capacities. the communities themselves, new technologies for their work. These trends, coupled with and specifically their core needs Rather, with multi-sector partners, growing urban populations, make and any challenges they may we are seeking to strengthen the it essential for organizations face in managing disaster risk. resilience of urban communities to better support community Needs highlighted by session through consumer technologies, participants included food security, resilience. Doing so will empower including solutions that are (or transportation, shelter, access people living in urban areas to will become) directly accessible to to soil and green space, land prepare for and help themselves individuals. This workshop is part rights, child protection, education, when shocks and stresses occur.1 of a two-year initiative to consider health and nutrition, and water; the humanitarian application of and challenges included child The Red Cross has identified six emerging technologies, field test abuse, forced marriage, refugee characteristics of safe and resilient promising ideas, and develop policy situations, chronic displacement, communities: these communities recommendations. and ongoing disasters. are (1) knowledgeable and healthy, Our approach is forward-looking (2) organized, and (3) connected; At the same time, it is important and focuses less on existing they (4) have infrastructure to look at what technology is technology (such as mobile phones and services, (5) offer economic making possible. The changing and applications) than on the opportunities, and (6) can manage role of mobile networks, the potential of emerging technologies their natural assets. (See the text use of biometrics as a tool that, in the future, could support box for more detail about each.) A to identify beneficiaries and decentralized urban disaster risk variety of emerging technologies reduce corruption, and other management and strengthen and their novel applications could new technologies—augmented community resilience. With climate enhance these characteristics in reality, unmanned aerial vehicles, change and rapid, haphazard urban areas. 3-D printers, smart homes/cars,

105 Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum wearables—could all play a role changes; potential for technology technologies and be open to in strengthening community to exacerbate vulnerabilities their potential value, and private resilience and responding to future and divides; low levels of skill sector partners and humanitarian disaster situations. Humanitarian in communications and use of agencies need to collaborate to organizations may need to begin technology; resilience of the ensure that solutions are driven by engaging more directly with technology itself (and absence of the needs of real communities. private sector producers of redundant or fall-back systems); technologies. Certainly, it will be and limited power sources. important to think about which Contributors to the session technologies would be accessible Experts point out that any new Co-leads and useful for urban communities, technologies used by communities Abi Weaver, Director, Global particularly the most vulnerable to improve resilience should be Technology Project, American Red groups, in the future. easily integrated and ideally should Cross be dual-purpose so that they are Hugh MacLeman, Head of The potential of emerging already in people’s hands before (and Humanitarian Policy, British Red Cross technologies to strengthen not only useful during) a disaster. Ryan Freeman, Urban Disaster urban resilience is great, but This point is also vital in considering Risk Reduction and Management, so may be the challenges financing, a topic that needs to be International Federation of Red Cross associated with using these addressed if emerging technologies and Red Crescent Societies technologies. Challenges likely to are to be operationalized for disaster Kyla Reid, Head of Disaster Response, be faced include a community’s risk management and humanitarian GSMA potential lack of trust in the response. Panelists new technologies; a community’s Samuel Carpenter, Humanitarian diverse capacities and languages; In order to successfully harness Policy Advisor, British Red Cross power and political struggles emerging technologies for Ravi Mattu, Deputy Editor, within a community; potential resilience, questions about Financial Times Weekend Magazine conflicts among communities or resourcing and implementation will Jonathan Cole, Managing community members; increased need to be addressed. Who should Director, Skotkonung Ltd. expectations for rapid response; be financially responsible for the Linda Raftree, Co-founder, regulatory shifts and spectrum design, prototype development, Kurante and trial of new technologies? More thought must be given to Endnote

new models of cost-sharing that 1 For a discussion of the challenge of incentivize the private sector assessing risk in rapidly evolving urban and humanitarian organizations settings, see “Rome May Not Have Been Built in a Day, but Urban Exposure Now to collaborate and invest in this Changes Daily” in this publication. space. One possibility is that large and well-established humanitarian aid agencies could leverage their brands in order to promote trust in these new solutions.

Though the future is always difficult to predict, a few things are indisputable: organizations need to understand emerging

106 How Might Emerging Technology Strengthen Urban Resilience?

A safe and resilient community . . .

1. Is knowledgeable and healthy. It has the ability to assess, manage, and monitor its risks. It can learn new skills and build on past experiences. 2. Is organized. It has the capacity to identify problems, establish priorities, and act. 3. Is connected. It has relationships with external actors (family, friends, faith groups, government) who provide a wider supportive environment and supply goods and services when needed. 4. Has infrastructure and services. It has strong housing, transport, power, water, and sanitation systems. It has the ability to maintain, repair, and renovate them. 5. Has economic opportunities. It has a diverse range of employment and income opportunities and financial services. It is flexible and resourceful and has the capacity to accept uncertainty and respond (proactively) to change. 6. Can manage its natural assets. It recognizes their value and has the ability to protect, enhance, and maintain them. Source: “Understanding Community Resilience and Program Factors That Strengthen Them: A Comprehensive Study of Red Cross Red Crescent Societies Tsunami Operation,” International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Geneva, 2012.

Brainstorming on the Uses—and Users—of Technology

When participants in the workshop session voted for their favorite technological innovations, six key ideas bubbled to the top: the use of virtual reality to better communicate risk and preparedness measures; building on existing “shared economy” Building Resilience ideas to improve disaster resilience; use of sensors for early warning; community-owned 3-D printers; solar charging of mobile phones and other appliances; and various uses of civilian drones. Participants formed five groups (in the end no one joined the 3-D printer group, so this was eliminated) and began to consider the potential users of the prototypes they were developing; to help them stay focused, each group was presented with a composite character (based on real people interviewed by the Red Cross in several countries). Groups worked for 45 minutes to develop their plans and then shared their ideas: A virtual reality platform that could support risk assessment. It would be geared toward supporting individuals’ need to access timely information on risks, but would also feed into a wider system where larger patterns could be identified. The use of shared economy systems that exist pre-disaster to offer support post-disaster. These systems might include tuition support, skills sharing, incentives, and insurance—all of which are needed in normal times. The shared economy systems could then be repurposed during times of disaster. A system of sensors that could measure noise and alert people to crowds and violence. This would allow people to navigate around areas of higher potential for violence. The sensors could be useful in normal times to share traffic information, for example, and then convert to violence sensors if circumstances warranted. A mobile charging solution that could be placed inside a motorcycle helmet with a solar panel on top. The charger would encourage motorcycle taxi drivers to wear helmets, and would help them earn money in normal times, because passengers would seek them out in order to charge their phones during the ride. During an emergency, the helmet would also be available for charging phones to access information and support a community response. A number of uses for drones. Drones might be used for mapping dangers and services; identifying bodies and sensing where people were alive and trapped based on mobile phone signals; and delivery of aid, including SIM cards, power packs, and information packs.

Further resources

A Global Dialogue on Emerging Technology for Emerging Needs website at http://tech4resilience.blogspot.com/. World Disasters Report 2013: Focus on Technology and the Future of Humanitarian Action (Geneva: International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, 2013), http://www.ifrc.org/PageFiles/134658/WDR%202013%20complete.pdf.

107 Partnerships

Photo: black hood Partnerships

Can Flood Resilience Be Measured? An Innovative Collaborative Approach May Do Just That [page 111]

Beyond Physical Risk: Looking through a Socioeconomic Lens [page117]

Global Risk Assessment: Toward an Enhanced Vision of Global Disaster Risk [page 127] Photo: Dr. Stephen Yeo Can Flood Resilience Be Measured? An Innovative Collaborative Approach May Do Just That

David Nash, Flood Resilience Community Impact Manager, Zurich Insurance Company Ltd.

Introduction the United States. This alliance general measurement framework of risk experts seeks to improve for disaster resilience has been Increased severe flooding globally the public dialogue around flood empirically verified yet.”1 has focused attention on finding resilience while demonstrating practical ways to improve flood the benefits of pre-event risk This finding highlights a key Partnerships risk management. As part of this reduction, as opposed to post- challenge for any resilience- effort, Zurich Insurance Group event disaster relief. building efforts: if resilience cannot (Zurich) launched a global flood be empirically verified, how do you resilience program in 2013. empirically measure whether a The Measurement The program aims to advance community is more resilient as a Challenge knowledge, develop robust result of your work? By combining the expertise of all our partners, expertise, and design strategies The program’s impact will be we have set out to address this that help communities strengthen seen in communities’ enhanced challenge. their resilience to flood. resilience to flooding. But demonstrating this impact To implement the program, presents a particular challenge: Breaking Down Zurich has formed a multi-year, measuring resilience is not as easy the Challenge interdisciplinary alliance with the as it sounds. International Federation of Red It is a truism that what gets Cross and Red Crescent Societies There are many approaches to measured, gets done. Thus if we can (IFRC), the nongovernmental measuring resilience that have find a way to measure enhanced organization Practical Action, the grown up over the last 10 years, community resilience to flooding, International Institute for Applied any of which could potentially be we are likely to be able to design Systems Analysis (IIASA), and applied to our efforts. However, interventions that contribute to the Wharton Business School’s a recent survey conducted for such an enhancement. In order to Risk Management and Decision the United Nations Development measure something, though, we Processes Center (Wharton) in Programme concluded that “no must first define it.

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Measuring “resilience” per se is The Insurance Partner making it possible not only to very complicated, and we have “grade” these factors (using Zurich’s expertise is in managing concluded that we should look the TRGS approach) but also to risk. Its risk engineering teams at resilience in the face of a identify actions for enhancing have developed a set of technical specific event (e.g., flooding). resilience. risk grading standards (TRGS) We have also concluded that that offer an objective view “resilience” should be understood The Academic Partners of the impact of numerous as an outcome that ensures hazards and allow them to make Through a comprehensive review that a community can continue recommendations about actions of current techniques and thinking to thrive and develop. In other that can be taken to reduce risks. on resilience, our academic partners words, a community will be able to continue to function and grow if it It is a truism that what gets measured, gets done. Thus has resilience. However, resilience if we can find a way to measure enhanced community can come from many sources. It resilience to flooding, we are likely to be able to design is important to look holistically interventions that contribute to such an enhancement. at these sources of resilience if In order to measure something, though, we must first we hope to know in advance of a define it. flood whether a community will be resilient. This approach has allowed Risk engineers compare data Wharton (in the United States) us to concentrate on appropriate gathered from site visits with the and IIASA (in Austria) have drawn measurement factors—the definitions in the TRGS to make a up a framework around which a sources of resilience. judgment about how to manage measurement tool can be built. the risks at issue. The TRGS The framework combines thinking Measuring a community’s provide a consistent benchmark developed at the Multidisciplinary resilience also requires us to against which to quantify those Center for Earthquake Engineering define a “community.” Potentially, risks. Effective risk management Research (MCEER) at the a “community” could be defined can reduce overall losses, which University of Buffalo, New York, geographically (perhaps in rural in turn allows customers to cope and the Sustainable Livelihoods contexts) or by administrative with any residual losses more Framework of the Department boundaries (which may work in easily—that is, to rebuild more for International Development 2 more urban situations). However, quickly after a catastrophe, and (DFID). This “systems analysis” no single community will “feel” with less business interruption. approach takes into account the like another and there may be Effective risk management quality of life, interactions, and cultural aspects to consider, too. should also mean that the cost interconnections at the community of insurance is lower, and in some level, and provides consistency in As a result we have concluded that cases that the losses Zurich incurs identifying and testing potential when it comes to ground reality, a from claims are lower. sources of resilience. community largely defines itself.

This measurement methodology The framework is based on four Alliance Contributions can be adapted in the context of separate properties related to communities’ enhanced resilience community resilience (the “Four Each of the alliance institutions to flooding. The approach brings Rs” defined by MCEER) and five has a different expertise that together quantitative and types of community capital (the makes a distinct contribution to qualitative data about the factors “Five Cs” from DFID’s Sustainable the measurement model. that contribute to resilience, Livelihoods Framework). The

112 Can Flood Resilience Be Measured? An Innovative Collaborative Approach May Do Just That

“Four R–Five C” framework can be Social (social relationships The Future applied to virtually any community. and networks, bonds aiding cooperative action, links Over the course of 2014, the The Four Rs (resilience properties) are facilitating exchange of and Zurich flood resilience alliance access to ideas and resources) team has built an initial iteration of Robustness (ability to Natural (natural resource base, a measurement tool and through withstand a shock) including land productivity and programming work in Mexico has Redundancy (functional actions to sustain it, as well as gathered data to test it. The data diversity) water and other resources that will be analyzed using the tool, and Resourcefulness (ability to sustain livelihoods) the results will help us to evaluate how well it works. Further mobilize when threatened) This framework provides a system iterations of the tool will continue Rapidity (ability to contain and a type of matrix to measure losses and recover in a timely the sources of community flood into 2015, with the aim of having a manner) resilience. It allows comparisons comprehensive documented model within and across communities to available for use in the alliance’s The Five Cs that characterize empirically validate resilience and community projects. communities are complementary to measure in clear, concise terms forms of capital that can help how resilient a community is to We believe that we are on the to improve inhabitants’ well- floods. The framework also makes way to producing a model that

being. Judicious use of these it possible to test how a change empirically measures community Partnerships resources can increase personal in one of the Five Cs affects a resilience to flooding, and that and collective wealth, provide a community’s overall resilience level. this model could eventually be sense of security, and enhance the basis for a comprehensive environmental stewardship. From The Community Partners resilience measurement approach.3 an analytical perspective, the Five Having a methodology for building Cs provide greater richness of a measurement tool (the TRGS) data about a community’s sources Contributors to the session and a framework to determine the of resilience than any single metric Saad Mered, Global Chief Claims potential indicators (Four R–Five (e.g., average income). Thus they Officer, General Insurance, Zurich C) can help us build a theoretical provide a more holistic picture of a Insurance Company, Ltd. model for resilience measurement. community’s resilience. But to ensure that our model is Dr. Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan, Executive Director, Wharton Risk not merely theoretical but also has The Five Cs are Management and Decision Processes relevance to real communities, the Center, the Wharton School, Practical Action Physical (things produced by role of and the University of Pennsylvania Red Cross is key. These partners economic activity from other Reinhard Mechler, Senior Research have on-the-ground experience capital, such as infrastructure, Scholar Risk Policy and Vulnerability, equipment, improvements in that forms the basis for specific International Institute of Applied crops, livestock, etc.) indicators that are highly relevant Systems Analysis (IIASA) to communities. Both partners Financial (level, variability, and Colin McQuistan, Senior Policy and make use of data-gathering tools Practice Adviser, DRR and Climate diversity of income sources to help them understand the Change, Practical Action and access to other financial communities they are working Mohammed Omer Mukhier, Head, resources that contribute to with, and these have been adapted wealth) Community Preparedness and Risk for use in our model to ensure that Reduction Department, International Human (education, skills, all the data needed to measure Federation of Red Cross and Red health) resilience are available. Crescent Societies

113 Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum

Before After

Left: Obrenovac, Serbia before the floods. Right: Obrenovac, Serbia May 21, 2014. Photo: CNES/ASTRIUM; DIGITALGLOBE/GOOGLE.

Endnotes contained in other documents of the Group, 3 For a further look at the challenges as a result of using different assumptions of promoting flood resilience, see “The This publication has been prepared by and/or criteria. This publication is not intended Role of Ecosystems in Reducing Risk” in Zurich Insurance Group Ltd and the to be legal, underwriting, financial, investment this publication. For a discussion of flood opinions expressed therein are those of or any other type of professional advice. modelling, see “‘Mission Impossible’: Using Zurich Insurance Group Ltd as of the Global Flood Risk Assessments for Local date of writing and are subject to change 1 Thomas Winderl, “Disaster Resilience Decision Making” in this publication. without notice. This publication has been Measurements: Stocktaking of produced solely for informational purposes. Ongoing Efforts in Developing The analysis contained and opinions Systems for Measuring Resilience,” expressed herein are based on numerous United Nations Development assumptions. Different assumptions could Programme, February 2014, http:// result in materially different conclusions. All www.preventionweb.net/files/37916_ information contained in this publication have disasterresiliencemeasurementsundpt.pdf. been compiled and obtained from sources believed to be reliable and credible but no 2 For MCEER, see “MCEER’s Resilience representation or warranty, express or Framework,” October 2006, http:// implied, is made by Zurich Insurance Group mceer.buffalo.edu/research/resilience/ Ltd or any of its subsidiaries (the ‘Group’) as Resilience_10-24-06.pdf. For DFID, to their accuracy or completeness. Opinions see “Sustainable Livelihoods Guidance expressed and analyses contained herein Sheets,” April 1999, http://eldis.org/vfile/ might differ from or be contrary to those upload/1/document/0901/section2.pdf. expressed by other Group functions or

Further resources

Zurich Insurance Group website at http://www.zurich.com/en/corporate-responsibility. IFRC website at http://www.ifrc.org. Practical Action website at http://practicalaction.org/. IIASA website at http://www.iiasa.ac.at. Risk Management and Decision Processes Center at the Wharton School website at http://www.wharton.upenn.edu/riskcenter/.

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The UR Forum offered an oppor- to potential users and would not Development tune occasion for soliciting feedback save much computation time in of a Global on the tool and brainstorming about any case. what elements should be part of

Probabilistic a robust design. In an effort to The tool should be developed so that it can fully integrate the ensure the development of a CBA contributions of climate change Cost-Benefit calculator that meets users’ needs and urban growth to future and is scalable in nature, the World Analysis Tool risk. Consideration should be Bank team sought inputs from given to also including social and experts in economics, risk modelling, economic performance, mortality Marc Forni, Senior Disaster Risk and risk financing during a workshop. and morbidity rates, and both Management Specialist, World Some of the recommendations proprietary and freely available Bank received were the following: hazard catalogs. The calculator should be thought Disaster risk management (DRM) The development team has lots of of not as a World Bank tool, but projects are a cost-effective ex ante work ahead of it. Team members as a tool for the DRM community approach to minimizing risk from will need to conduct an extensive as a whole. extreme events and increasing a literature review prior to tool society’s resilience. Though they pro- The tool should be modular to construction, meet frequently with vide significant long-term returns, ensure its flexibility and long life; internal and external experts to justifying support for DRM projects it should be able to use updat- report on progress as the construc- can often be a difficult task for gov- able components, to include local tion proceeds, and seek and borrow ernments and the World Bank, as models when they are available, lessons learned from other indus- these projects compete with others and to incorporate subjective tries. Throughout, we will need to clearly articulate the tool’s purpose whose returns are more immediate, expert judgments and local infor- and make sure that its capabilities even if generally smaller. Within mation. this context, a tool that provided are accurately represented to potential users. realistic estimates of the return The purpose of the project—be it from DRM projects would be a high-level or local-level analysis— highly useful asset for governments should be established. Contributors to the session seeking to quantify and assess the To ensure uptake of the tool, all value of potential investments. analysis should be transparent, Marc Forni, Senior Disaster Risk uncertainties should be well com- Management Specialist, World Bank A team from the World Bank is municated, and results should Yohannes Kesete, Disaster Risk developing a cost-benefit analysis show the benefits of investment Management Specialist, World Bank (CBA) calculator to meet this need. compared to maintaining the The tool will leverage the work Richard Murnane, Senior Disaster Risk status quo. Management Specialist, GFDRR being done by the Global Facility for Annegien Tijssen Disaster Reduction and Recovery The tool should use modelling , Disaster Risk Management Specialist, GFDRR to develop a hazard screening tool structures that the DRM com- (specifically, it will use the same munity is accustomed to (hazard global hazard data sets) and should * exposure * vulnerability serve a range of practitioners in the = risk), rather than a loss-cost risk community. approach, which is less familiar

115 Photo: Mahfuzul Hasan Rana Beyond Physical Risk Looking through a Socioeconomic Lens

Christopher Burton, Senior Scientist and Coordinator for Social Vulnerability and Integrated Risk, GEM Foundation Nicole Keller, International Relations and Partnerships, GEM Foundation John Schneider, Chair, Governing Board, GEM Foundation

By including socioeconomic metrics vulnerability. Figure 1 depicts of vulnerability and resilience in risk how the concepts of disaster assessments, we can understand, risk, resilience, vulnerability, and manage, and eventually reduce risk exposure are linked. Vulnerability more effectively. comprises physical factors (such Partnerships as damage to buildings and injury The difference in impact between to people) and socioeconomic the 2010 Haiti and 2011 factors (such as poverty and Christchurch earthquakes makes gender). Vulnerability is a function obvious that socioeconomic factors of the intersection of multiple influence how risk is distributed characteristics and how they and perceived. Combining play out geographically over time. measurements of socioeconomic Populations’ resilience helps to characteristics with analysis of lessen exposure and vulnerability, physical risk, expressed in terms of and thus reduces risk. damage and loss to structures and people, would improve our efforts But how do we move beyond to manage and reduce risk. Our acknowledging the importance ability to measure socioeconomic Figure 1. How understanding characteristics is still limited. But physical and social vulnerability is efforts are under way to improve key to understanding and managing it and move toward a more disaster risk and increasing resilience. complete picture of risk. Resilience Measuring and Understanding Social Disaster Vulnerability and Exposure risk Vulnerability Resilience

To manage disaster risk, we need to manage both exposure and Source: Adapted from Susan Cutter.

117 Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum of social vulnerability and other on users’ needs and desires and on resilience in areas where data are socioeconomic factors to measuring what data are available. lacking, or where it is possible or them? How do we include these desirable to have local decision measurements in risk assessments? The “top-down” method uses makers and managers directly To meet these challenges, the statistical data from censuses and participating, a “bottom-up” and Global Earthquake Model (GEM) other sources; within the scope participatory approach can be Foundation is partnering with of GEM, large socioeconomic adopted. This approach is used in a CEDIM (Center for Disaster databases are being developed self-evaluation tool for earthquake Management and Risk Reduction for use at national level and for resilience in Nepal. Building upon Technology) and others to develop some regions at the subnational the Hyogo Framework for Action 2 scientifically sound, state-of- level. For the top-down technique, and other UNISDR guidelines, the-art measurement tools and an Integrated Risk Modelling GEM partnered with the Nepal data that can be combined with Toolkit is being developed to allow Society of Earthquake Technol- physical risk models to develop an users to combine data from the ogy (NSET) to develop the tool integrated view of risk. socioeconomic databases with (or scorecard), which was tested more detailed local data. The at the city and subcity level in The tools and resources under toolkit allows users to apply their Lalitpur, Nepal. The tool asks users to rate their city in six areas: social development are targeted knowledge of the local context in capacity, awareness and advocacy, at those responsible for weighting various characteristics, legal and institutional, planning understanding and managing and then to derive indexes or and regulation, critical infrastruc- disaster risk, and use both models for social vulnerability, ture and services, and emergen- “top-down” and “bottom-up” (indirect) economic vulnerability, or cy preparedness and response. techniques. Decisions about resilience. The groups that were invited to whether a top-down or bottom-up participate in the testing—local approach is preferable will depend For measuring and understanding ward representatives and munic- ipal (city-level) officials and policy Figure 2. A participatory self-evaluation tool for measuring and discussing disaster makers—used hand-held devices to resilience being tested in Lalitpur, Nepal.. Source: Christopher Burton jointly answer questions (shown in figure 2). Participants enjoyed the exercise (the technology made it fun); and more significantly, the approach seemed to create a sense of ownership in the stake- holders, which suggests they will be more likely to act to improve resilience. This participatory process, along with the outcomes (scores are shown in figure 3), also fostered discussion among the stakeholders, which promoted a common understanding of earth- quake resilience. The data collect- ed from tools of this kind may be aggregated to model the resilience of cities and combined with other data sources.

118 Beyond Physical Risk: Looking through a Socioeconomic Lens

Figure 3. The plot summarizes the self-evaluation scores of the Lalitpur municipal Integrated Risk officials (green) and the city ward representatives (purple) and shows the differences Assessment: Combining in how the two groups assess their city’s resilience. the Physical and the Awareness and advocacy Social

Emergency response Once a model of social vulnerability, Social capacity economic vulnerability, and/ or resilience is defined, it can be combined with a physical vulnerability and exposure model to obtain an integrated view of the disaster risk in the area. The Integrated Risk Modelling Toolkit mentioned above allows social vulnerability, economic vulnerability,

Critical and/or resilience indexes to services Legal and institutional arrangements be combined with physical risk measures, such as average annual LSMC (average) loss or fatalities estimates. This Planning regulation Wards (average) combination (a sample is shown in

figure 4) produces a new picture of Partnerships Source: Johannes Ahorn, Christopher Burton, and Bijan Khazai. risk that contributes to improved risk management.

Figure 4. Integrated earthquake risk mapping for Turkey. In order to get a complete picture of risk, or an integrated risk map (bottom map), physical risk estimates for average annual economic loss (top map) are combined with social vulnerability estimates (middle map). Source: © Sevgi Ozcebe, IUSS, UME School, Pavia. Used with permission; further permission required for reuse. Note: These maps of Turkey were developed by Sevgi Ozcebe, a PhD student, using tools and data developed in the context of GEM and are to be considered work in progress. The physical risk map (top) is the result of combining an earthquake hazard model (past earthquakes and active faults) with models of exposure and vulnerability of the building stock, which also incorporate data from past disasters. The integrated risk map (bottom) shows that risk is not mainly concentrated in the west of the country, and that many eastern provinces would be affected by an earthquake.

119 Case Studies

Manila. Photo: gionnixxx

Public Sector Case Study: Quezon City. Private Sector Case Study: FM Global. Quezon City, the largest city in Metro Manila, is a notable For businesses, four key elements are at risk from success story in risk assessment. Efforts to establish disasters: property and other assets, continued a disaster risk reduction and management (DRRM) operation, shareholder value, and company reputation. system within the city and to institutionalize DRRM The first two elements involve physical risks that can protocols, policies, procedures, and functions within be quantified and are insurable. But how should risk to the city government were pursued collaboratively by the two nonphysical elements be managed? The answer CEDIM, the Earthquake and Megacities Initiative (EMI), lies in investing in resilience. The insurance company FM the Quezon City government, and local and national Global has created a resilience index by examining clients’ stakeholders. Part of this effort made use of social preparedness strategies. The index, which documents a vulnerability, resilience, and risk indicators, which were range of different levels of business preparedness and selected and implemented through a fully participatory resilience across countries, also provides a rich source process that included workshops with 40 stakeholders of information on attitudes toward resiliency and the from 21 Quezon City offices and organizations. The costs and benefits of investing in resilience. It shows, for successful Quezon City experience informed GEM’s instance, that companies with strong risk management development of the Integrated Risk Modelling Toolkit practices suffer average losses from natural hazards for use in interactive and participatory settings with that are 28 times lower than losses of companies with stakeholders. The risk assessment in Quezon City weaker practices. The index helps companies and their served as a pilot for how physical risk outputs from employees understand the importance of resilience and GEM’s OpenQuake Engine could be integrated with devise strategies for a more resilient future. social vulnerability and resilience indicators relevant for emergency planning, preparedness, and policy making in the context of developing country megacities.

120 Beyond Physical Risk: Looking through a Socioeconomic Lens

Conclusion ways to increase their resilience For more information, go to www. to disasters. Better tools and globalquakemodel.org. Understanding and incorporating methods for estimating the the socioeconomic context costs and benefits of investing Contributors to the session into risk assessment and in disaster risk reduction and management is critical for management measures are also Herbert Bautista, Mayor of Quezon creating a culture of resilience. needed, in particular those that City, the Philippines But there are still many steps take into account various policy Christopher Burton, Senior Scientist required to produce that culture. interventions and allow the user to and Coordinator for Social Vulnerability and Integrated Risk, GEM Foundation Experts still disagree about the see the effect on the integrated definitions of and difference risk of a certain geographic area. Susan Cutter, Carolina Distinguished between social vulnerability and Professor at the University of South resilience. Moreover, validating the Carolina; U.S. National Academies Chair To overcome such challenges, we measurements of these abstract of Community on Increasing National recommend the following: Resilience to Hazards and Disasters and multidimensional concepts is complex: Are we really measuring Encourage sharing of case Amod Dixit, Director, Nepal Society of social vulnerability or something studies and best practices Earthquake Technology (NSET) quite different? Does measuring on how to measure and Louis Gritzo, Vice President of resilience really get at the ability incorporate measures of Research, FM Global to prepare for and recover from a socioeconomic vulnerability Bijan Khazai, Senior Scientist, Center disaster? It is hard to tell because and resilience into disaster risk for Disaster Management and Risk Partnerships we lack the necessary long-term reduction and management Reduction Technologies (CEDIM), Earthquake and Megacities Initiative disaster recovery studies that link activities and policies. (EMI) resilience and vulnerability metrics To facilitate risk ownership to long-term recovery outcomes. Loy Rego, Learning Practitioner, at the local level, invest Mainstreaming Adaptation, Resilience in development of tools, and Sustainability into Development, Other challenges to measuring methods, and products that Global Network of National Councils “beyond physical risk” include the are scientifically sound but also for Sustainable Development and need for accurate and consistent similar bodies (GN-NCSDs) participatory. data on infrastructure and nonresidential buildings at local Encourage sharing and opening Endnotes levels. The self-evaluation tool of data to improve risk assessment and management. 1 Social vulnerability is here defined as (bottom-up assessment) seems to characteristics or qualities within social work well at city level and makes Make sure that risks are systems that create the potential for use of data and knowledge drawn loss or harm. These include economic managed with flexible characteristics such as poverty level from the people themselves. But strategies and multiple tools. and employment status. Economic its reliance on these data alone vulnerability, on the other hand, is becomes a limitation; we do not Harmonize existing efforts understood here as the potential for to measure vulnerability and indirect economic losses from hazard know whether this approach events, such as business interruption. would still produce valid results resilience. Finally, resilience is the ability of social at subnational or national level. systems to prepare for, respond to, and recover from damaging hazard events. Another challenge is to develop We invite all who are interested methods for modelling post- in the topic or want to continue 2 See UNISDR, Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015: Building the Resilience disaster recovery (such as the discussion to get in touch of Nations and Communities to Disasters currently exist for damage) to with GEM. Leave us a message (Geneva: UNISDR, 2007), http://www. obtain deeper understanding on our Facebook page or get in unisdr.org/hfa; and UNISDR, “The 10 Essentials for Making Cities Resilient,” of populations’ socioeconomic touch via email: nicole.keller@ http://www.unisdr.org/campaign/ vulnerability and to develop globalquakemodel.org. resilientcities/toolkit/essentials.

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provide a better understanding of OpenQuake Engine Game Time: the built environment before, during, This open source, state-of-the-art and after earthquakes. As players of Monitoring hazard and risk modelling software the game make decisions during pre- Changing lets users produce measures and earthquake and post-earthquake products—such as cost-benefit Riskscapes time periods, and as they look for ratio maps, average annual loss with GEM and data to support their decisions, we estimates, and damage predictions— can learn how software tools, data, that support decisions about risk SENSUM Tools and risk models produced using reduction and management. Users SENSUM or GEM tools might be need not rely solely on their own John Bevington, Director, used to objectively inform disaster- data and expert knowledge. At the ImageCat Ltd. related decision making. end of 2014, a community-based Nicole Keller, International Relations Tools platform will become available that and Partnerships, GEM Foundation connects users and that hosts many Before the game began, panelists tools and a variety of resources, Introduction presented a series of technical including global data sets and hazard demonstrations on the tools to be and risk models. How can geospatial data be used used. These included the following: to create actionable information GEM Integrated Risk both before and after a disaster? GEM Inventory Data Modelling Toolkit With a focus on the development Capture Tools (IDCTs) This product now in development of property exposure data, we will allow users to develop indexes explored this question through a These are a set of open source tools of social vulnerability, economic role-playing disaster risk reduction or apps that enable disaster risk vulnerability, and resilience, based information game.1 management (DRM) practitioners and others to capture data on on their knowledge of the local The game brought together buildings (inventory) before and socioeconomic context. Such models two high-profile global initiatives after earthquakes. These tools make can then be combined with physical that have at their core the use it possible to transform data from risk models to produce integrated risk of geospatial tools and imagery: satellite images and other “remote” measures (maps, tables, etc.). (Use of GEM (Global Earthquake Model) information on buildings into the tool is described in this publication and SENSUM (Framework for exposure data sets and models. In a in “Beyond Physical Risk: Looking integrating Space-based and in-situ very intuitive way, users can go into through a Socioeconomic Lens.”) sENSing for dynamic vUlnerability the streets with a tablet, phone, or and recovery Monitoring), a project paper form to collect building-by- SENSUM Earth Observation of the European Commission’s building data that follow a globally (EO) for pre-event exposure Seventh Framework Programme agreed-upon format. The data they mapping (FP7). Both projects feature collect can then be fed back into By December 2014, SENSUM software and tools that aim to global databases of exposure and will release a suite of free, open 1 For an extended discussion of the role of earthquake consequences. Protocols source tools as plug-ins to the games and game play in understanding and user guides are available to help well-known QGIS environment. The risk, see “GAME OVER: Exploring the Complexity of Actionable Information users exploit the tools and extract tools aim at extracting actionable, through Gaming” in this publication. data from remote sensing images. multi-temporal information about

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The role-playing game in progress. Participants were asked to play out a fictitious earthquake and describe the types of decisions they would have to make as DRM practitioners. Participants identified which geospatial data products could be used to objectively support those decisions. Source: Steve Platt.

exposure from the latest moderate- tools. A spatial database platform the observed properties of the and high-spatial-resolution satellite is being realized using open source observed buildings in a format fully imagery, particularly from global, state-of-the-art solutions to collect compatible with the GEM standards. freely available products such as and store the produced geospatial Data needs for post-disaster Landsat and Sentinel. SENSUM is information. The platform takes into recovery will be addressed within also conducting a comprehensive account the information’s full life the same framework, resulting in comparison and cross-validation cycle, from generation to update a comprehensive methodological of space products that will soon to disposal, and also incorporates solution to the monitoring of time- be included in online end-user uncertainties. varying indicators at multiple spatial guidelines. scales throughout the disaster cycle. SENSUM mobile mapping SENSUM dynamic exposure and rapid remote visual Disaster Risk Reduction modelling screening (RRVS) Scenario Planning Game The continuous, sometimes abrupt To increase the efficiency and The game organized as part of this evolution of the urban environment, flexibility of in situ data collection, session sought to explore what particularly in developing countries a mobile mapping system, including kind of decisions are made, and and megacities, calls for a dynamic, an omnidirectional camera, has iterative, and incremental approach been realized and tested in Europe, hence what kind of data and tools to exposure modelling. A novel Turkey, and Central Asia. The system are needed, before and after an sampling framework is being can be promptly deployed and earthquake. fixed on any car or civil protection developed to prioritize and optimize The game included four different vehicle, and provides georeferenced, in situ data collection, taking scenarios: into account multiple spatial and high-resolution visual coverage of temporal scales and exploiting the urban environment. A suite First response in Van, Turkey information extracted from remote of geographic information system (week 1) sensing. Efficient data collection (GIS) open source software tools Recovery, planning, and protocols are being developed based allows a remote operator to analyze monitoring, in Maule, Chile (up to on free and open source software the collected visual stream and save two years)

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Long-term mitigation planning There is another barrier to culture in which responsibilities (developed country) in Tohoku, adoption of remote sensing and are laid out hierarchically. These Japan other geospatial tools, and that is frameworks can be made to Long-term mitigation planning the culture and practices of risk accommodate use of geospatial (developing country) in Kashmir assessment. Decisions are often not data to better inform decision underwritten by evidence-based or making, but the accommodation By inviting participants to act out even modelled data. Instead they needs to occur before a disaster these scenarios, representatives are often based on gut feelings strikes. Organizations (probably from GEM and the SENSUM project or determined by local or national wisely) are reluctant to embrace hoped to generate interest among protocols. Remote sensing combined new data or technologies when potential users of their tools, and with the techniques developed responding to disaster events. By also to get feedback—particularly by GEM and SENSUM offers an encouraging a culture of training from practitioners in developing alternative, objective view of pre- and trying out new technologies in countries—on tools’ format and event risk assessment and post- the pre-event time period, users will functionality. event situational awareness—but become accustomed to generating the prevailing culture will need to The game at the UR session was information from imagery data. become familiar with this approach if played by 30 people, all researchers Technology-driven capacity building it is to be adopted. and academics. Ideally, role-playing in calm (non-disaster) times can games of this kind involve a more promote the use of data to inform diverse group of practitioners Recommendations decisions on planning and urban (academics, planners, insurers, policy growth. The very same tools can A number of recommendations makers, emergency managers). then be used after a disaster about how to optimize use of But the game worked reasonably to prioritize temporary camps, geospatial data tools for DRM can assess damage, and support needs well and the participants found it be drawn from this workshop. absorbing. assessments.

1. Support efficient exposure 3. Don’t overlook the geospatial Challenges data development with smart coordinator technology Geospatial data provide valuable Coordinators of data are From handheld applications to contextual information that can practitioners who understand the mobile mapping systems, from be used to better understand risk technical intricacies of turning assisted processing of satellite globally. Data derived from remote imagery data into actionable imagery to statistical learning and sensing can provide an independent information. It is important that pattern recognition, viable and perspective on the configuration they be aware of the technical efficient technology can boost most of the built environment and its capabilities and uncertainties of the activities related to exposure exposure to hazards. However, associated with these data, modelling. Solutions based upon despite the presence of high-spatial- without necessarily having to push standard protocols and common resolution satellite sensors for over formats should be privileged and the buttons. Coordinators are 15 years, remote sensing is still an encouraged. often consultants or managers underutilized resource, especially of a technical team of geospatial in developing nations. Limited 2. Use data as evidence to analysts. Critically, coordinators understanding of the benefits and a underwrite decisions should deeply understand what lack of technical training have made In situations where technology decisions are being made by policy it an often-overlooked or latent does not support decision making, makers and DRM practitioners. That resource. there is often a protocol-driven way, the appropriate resources can

124 OF INTEREST be brought to bear on a particular Conclusions Contributors to the session project, and a full understanding of Christopher Burton, Senior Scientist the potential benefits and limitations Barriers to the uptake of geospatial and Coordinator for Social Vulnerability can be presented. tools are slowly being removed. and Integrated Risk, GEM Foundation A wide variety of medium- and Fabio Dell’Acqua, Department of 4. Play games to understand high-spatial-resolution imagery Electronics, University of Pavia the decisions process. data is available for risk assessment Daniele De Vecchi, PhD student, worldwide; software processing This workshop demonstrated the University of Pavia, and Researcher, tools are being developed using open Eucentre Foundation ability of role-playing games to source development techniques, stimulate discussion of pre- and Massimiliano Pittore, Senior Scientist, meaning that these tools can be Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, German post-event data needs. These used throughout the world when Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) games have been played in real-life training is in place; and training and Steve Platt, Director and Chair, contexts in Central Asia and Turkey. consultancy opportunities exist to Cambridge Architectural They are most effective when a enable “train-the-trainer” activities, Research Ltd. diverse group of pre- and post- thus promoting capacity-building Emily So, University Lecturer, event practitioners are brought practices. Department of Architecture, Cambridge together for a one- or two-day in- University depth disaster simulation and when Proponents of geospatial tools Vitor Silva, Seismic Risk Coordinator, participants assume a role they are need to work closely with DRM GEM Foundation most familiar with (that is, the one practitioners to understand Marc Wieland, Researcher, Helmholtz they would play if the event were the work flows and practices Centre Potsdam, German Research real). By defining roles and enabling adopted throughout the Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) participants to act out the decision disaster management cycle. This Catalina Yepes Estrada, Risk Engineer, making required by the simulation, understanding will help to identify GEM Foundation we can identify those decisions that areas where data and information could be better supported by data. can be used to validate decisions Another benefit of game playing and to ascertain the consequences is that it brings group dynamics to of decisions, and it will also underpin Cards representing the GEM and the fore—something that does not cost-benefit analysis to identify SENSUM tools available to participants occur when more traditional survey where data will have the biggest during the role-playing game. techniques are used. influence.

Prioritization tool OpenQuake Engine for hazard scenario Rapid environmental mapping

• Focus maps sampling points & routes • Input to damage • Rapid-per-building scenarios exposure dataset

125 Illustration: cherezoff/Thinkstock.com Global Risk Assessment Toward an Enhanced Vision of Global Disaster Risk

Sahar Safaie, Risk Assessment Officer, United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction

The Global Risk Assessment risk. Based on original research

(GAR) project is a risk modelling and a global assessment of Partnerships project led by the United Nations risk from natural hazards, GAR Office for Disaster Risk Reduction seeks to provide high-level basic (UNISDR) and conducted by information on the overall risk a consortium of technical landscape to help in identifying institutions to support GAR15 the main drivers of risk, prioritizing (Global Assessment Report on risk reduction investments Disaster Risk Reduction 2015) in (including the required enhanced providing high-level quantitative hazard and risk assessments), risk information for all countries and tracking progress over time. around the globe. The 2009 and 2011 GAR took an observationally based approach to A major initiative of UNISDR, risk assessment using historical the Global Assessment Report disaster databases. Since 2013, is a biennial global assessment with the goal of providing a more of disaster risk reduction that comprehensive view of risk at comprehensively reviews and global scale, GAR has taken a fully analyzes the natural hazards that probabilistic approach using the too often result in disasters. It CAPRA (Comprehensive Approach contributes to the achievement to Probabilistic Risk Assessment) of the Hyogo Framework for platform. Action (HFA) through monitoring risk patterns, risk trends, and UNISDR’s GAR global risk progress in disaster risk reduction, assessment will be used by a while guiding both governments wide range of public and private and nongovernmental actors in sector beneficiaries in tools and how (and why) to reduce disaster applications that tailor the global

127 Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum hazard and risk information to the uncertainties; it is appropriate for risk assessment results have low needs of various sectors. Examples obtaining robust indicators that resolution, they should not be used of tools include InfoRM (Index reflect risk at country level and for any detailed design or decision for Risk Management), which that can be used in ranking and at national or subnational level. applies global risk assessment to comparing countries. strategy, financing, and policy for The same methodology can crisis preparedness and resilience; The UNISDR GAR global risk be used for conducting risk and RMS One, which is a real-time assessment includes the following: assessment at local level (i.e., exposure and risk management a global built environment subnational or city level) to inform platform for the insurance exposure model of 5x5km (1x1km disaster risk management (DRM) industry that also allows UNISDR for coastal areas); probabilistic interventions such as land-use and governmental partners direct hazard and risk models of tropical risk-sensitive urban planning, cost- access to public and private sector cyclone wind and storm surge, as benefit analysis of retrofitting catastrophe models. well as earthquake, river flood, and and risk reduction measures, tsunami; the influence of climate financial protection and risk The UNISDR suite of data change on the tropical cyclone transfer, and emergency response platforms (such as CAPRA-Viewer wind hazard in the Caribbean; a planning. But depending on the and PREVIEW) will host the hazard, global probabilistic hazard model intended application, the quality exposure, and risk data sets for of volcanic ash fall and probabilistic and resolution of the needed data visualization and download by risk model of volcanic ash fall in will vary, meaning that the overall users in the original formats; this the Asia-Pacific region; agricultural process and amount of effort arrangement allows risk to be drought loss in three subregions required will vary as well. calculated using the same data sets. of Africa and drought models of Africa, the Mediterranean, and Latin America; the influence of A Community of A Leap to Gain an climate change on agriculture Scientists Contributing Enhanced Vision of in three countries in Africa; and to Global Risk Global Disaster Risk landslide risk assessment in two Information countries. The CAPRA modelling A multi-hazard probabilistic risk Probabilistic risk assessment suite was used for earthquake, assessment at any level requires can provide a comprehensive tropical cyclone, and storm surge scientific and engineering view of risk to populations, hazard modelling, besides risk expertise that is both wide- assets, services, livelihoods, and modelling of all hazards. ranging and deep. The UNISDR the environment from natural GAR global risk assessment is the hazards, and thus facilitates The risk results are produced result of a partnership between a prospective estimation of in terms of a loss exceedance many technical institutions with future losses (as opposed to a curve (figure 1), which makes expertise in different hazards, historical or retrospective view it possible to determine the exposure, vulnerability, and risk only). For the GAR15 global risk average annual loss (AAL) and modelling. These partners include assessment, the goal was to take probable maximum loss (PML) for the following: the leap from various global hazard any return period, as well as the assessments to a global multi- possible definition of loss layers, Arab Centre for the Studies hazard risk assessment with a given that the risk prevention of Arid Zones and Drylands harmonized probabilistic approach and reduction measures will vary (ACSAD) across regions and countries. With depending on the risk aversion coarse-grain resolution, such an and/or acceptance, among other Beijing Normal University evaluation has low sensibility to trade-offs. Because GAR’s global Centro Internazionale in

128 Global Risk Assessment: Toward an Enhanced Vision of Global Disaster Risk

Figure 1. A loss exceedance curve is an output of probabilistic risk models. This curve provides probabilities of exceeding various levels of loss. Understanding the frequency of different losses is necessary for deciding on types of measures to prevent or reduce different loss levels.

Retention (budget / contingent credit) Transfer Retention 0.1 10

Planning / Prevention / Mitigation

0.2 5 Regulation (codes / standards / land use) (residual risk)

Warning / Emergency response 1 1 2 0.5 10 0.1 Layer 1 Layer 2 Layer 3 Layer 4 100 0.01 1,000 0.001 50 100 500 1,000 Loss ($ 000)

Layer 1 = High probability & low/moderate losses Layer 2 = Medium probability & moderate/high losses Layer 3 = Low probability & high losses Partnerships Layer 4 = Very low probability & very high losses

Source: O. D. Cardona.

Monitoraggio Ambientale World Agency for Planetary by presenting the results in the (CIMA) Foundation Monitoring and Earthquake context of countries’ economic International Center for Risk Reduction (WAPMERR) and population indicators. In Numerical Methods in addition to countries, the GAR The World Meteorological Engineering (CIMNE) and global risk assessment has a wide Organization (WMO) and UNESCO INGENIAR range of beneficiaries who require provide technical peer review different platforms and tools Famine Early Warning Systems of modelling methodologies and Network (FEWS NET) depending on their objectives input data through their in- and technical capacity. The broad Global Earthquake Model (GEM) house expertise and their global range of beneficiaries can make Geoscience Australia technical network for relevant use of the GAR global risk as- hazards. Global Volcano Model (GVM) sessment by using data sets and results directly, or in combination Joint Research Centre (JRC) with other data sets, or as input Kokusai Kogyo A Community of Public and Private Users to other tools to provide the Norwegian Geotechnical information tailored to a specific Institute (NGI) The main goal of the UNISDR sector (health, housing, energy, United Nations Environment GAR global risk assessment is to education and awareness, crisis Programme–Global Resource increase countries’ awareness management, food security, or Information Database (UNEP- and understanding of the eco- insurance industry, among others). GRID) nomic imperatives of disasters Meanwhile, applications of the

129 Proceedings from the 2014 UR Forum

subnational areas. While some countries already have invested in developing their national risk profiles, the GAR15 global risk assessment will provide many countries, especially low-income countries that lack information on the risk they face, with a first cut for a national risk profile.

UNISDR has been using different platforms and tools, such as PREVIEW, CAPRA-Viewer, and Tangible Earth for GAR, to UNISDR technical partners effectively and comprehensively communicate results, and to in the GAR global risk share data sets and models assessment with beneficiaries and users. The UNISDR data platform and partner platforms such as RMS One will make it possible to meet three criteria for disseminating the GAR global risk assessment: (1) understandable risk results; current global risk assessment are Provide global values useful (2) open risk assessment data; quite numerous and include the for the insurance industry and and (3) an accessible modular risk following: other private sector investors model. Allow monitoring of intensive Raise the awareness of and extensive disaster risk The Way Forward the public, politicians, and over time and charting of DRM GAR15 will be launched in March practitioners about risk levels progress (e.g., outputs for the 2015. All data sets, risk models, and trends, as well as about Hyogo Framework for Action 2) and technical background the spatial characteristics of reports will be freely available disaster risk at global level The brief versions of the national on the UNISDR PreventionWeb Provide the basis for brief risk profiles are being developed and various platforms. While country risk profiles that offer based on both the GAR15 global making a global multi-hazard a first cut of risk information risk assessment results and probabilistic risk model available for estimating national (where available) countries’ to user communities represents governments’ fiscal liabilities historical loss databases. More a major milestone, it is also just comprehensive and refined the beginning of a coordinated Offer an operating picture of national risk profiles would initiative to improve, and facilitate hazard intensities, exposure, require close interaction with sharing of, risk knowledge. and disaster risk at global level national governments and Facilitate risk indexing and technical experts to access Considerable capacity exists rankings for comparing hazard higher-resolution data for among international DRM and risk levels across countries various components, sectors, and agencies and the private sector,

130 Global Risk Assessment: Toward an Enhanced Vision of Global Disaster Risk especially in the insurance governments an advanced Contributors to the session industry, for understanding understanding of relevant Andrew Maskrey, Chief, Global assessment results and using hazards, characteristics of Assessment Report on Disaster Risk data sets and models for various exposure and vulnerability, and Reduction, UNISDR applications. But presenting the levels of risk at national level; they Omar-Dario Cardona, General Project results so they can be understood can thus support decisions for Director, CIMNE and INGENIAR by nontechnical users will national DRM strategy, policies, Fathimath Thasneem, Deputy require significant effort, as will and activities, including next Minister, National Disaster building capacity in the public steps in producing hazard and Management Centre, Maldives sector (especially in low-income risk assessments at subnational Madiha Bakir, Associate Director, countries) for interpreting, level, which are required for Price Waterhouse Cooper (PWC) digesting, and using the results more specific risk prevention and Paul Vandermarck, Chief Products from probabilistic risk modelling. reduction actions. Officer, RMS Tom De Groeve, Senior Scientist, Through a project funded by the The GAR global risk assessment Joint Research Centre, European European Commission, UNISDR is is a living instrument: it should Commission using the outputs of the GAR15 not be considered complete or global risk assessment in dialogue finished, but rather as under with national governments and construction and improvable, national technical entities in 40 requiring new and better data low-income countries in order inputs and expanding the range Partnerships to foster more refined risk of hazards it includes in order assessments. The brief national to produce better exposure and risk profiles offer national vulnerability models.

Illustration: Adobest 131 OF INTEREST

and exciting research conducted UR2014’s inaugural plenary, entitled Urban Risk by the Brookings Institution, “Understanding Urban Risk and and Resilience London School of Economics Building Resilience,” drew on this (LSE), Massachusetts Institute of energy to learn from top officials of Plenary: I Want Technology, New York University, three cities—Lianne Dalziel (Mayor to Be a Mayor University College London, and many of Christchurch, New Zealand), others, and increasingly profiled in Patricia de Lille (Mayor of Cape a range of media,1 have brought a James Newman, Disaster Risk Town, South Africa), and Sir Edward renewed profile to the lowly city Management Specialist Lister (Chief of Staff and Deputy administrator. The fascinating—but Mayor, Greater London Authority). concrete and temptingly solvable— The three spoke about what risk The 2014 Understanding Risk problems at the local level have information they have, how they Forum brought together creative gotten commentators saying, “I use it, and what they want more and innovative technical and Want to Be a Mayor.”2 of. Two other speakers, Professor political leaders to pursue an Roman Frigg of LSE and Aris Alip, ambitious goal: reach some But urbanization, along with the conclusions about what is involved Managing Director of the Philippine economic growth that usually in producing actionable risk microfinance company CARD MRI, accompanies it, is also driving a information. offered views from academia and complicated web of risk, with more the private sector, respectively. Too often, the fate of risk people and assets exposed to assessments is to languish on hazards in often complex interrelated The messages were not always the dusty corner of a bookshelf. urban systems that are vulnerable hopeful, or did not seem so at Many questions about producing to shocks. Growing recognition first. Risk information is still not actionable information persist: of this trend has prompted a always widely available where it is How do we create and use risk number of attempts to quantify needed, as new risks emerge and information to propel governments, the growing risk in cities, including old ones shift in urban areas. Better the private sector, and technical work from Swiss Re and the World technologies will take our specific 3 experts of all stripes toward an Bank. It has also resulted in a local understanding of the potential agenda of resilience? How can host of international programs to effects of climate change only so far, decision makers ensure that needed promote and institutionalize urban while surprising levels of uncertainty data are collected and—more resilience, from the United Nations may remain an unvanquished foe in importantly—used? Office for Disaster Risk Reduction’s our understanding of climate risk pathbreaking Making Cities Resilient: for quite some time. Perhaps the Since UR2012, one class of political My City is Getting Ready! campaign least optimistic message: the most leader has seen its global stock launched in 2010, to the Rockefeller effective way to draw attention to outperform the rest: mayors. And Foundation’s pioneering 100 Resilient risk and catalyze collective action it’s no wonder why: the world is 4 Cities in 2013, while the World continues to be terrible disasters urbanizing, and cities are growing. Bank, UN-Habitat, Global Facility for arising from natural hazards. Nearly 180,000 people join the Disaster Reduction and Recovery, urban population each day, and by Inter-American Development Despite this, there was wide 2030, an expected 5 billion people, Bank, and many others have joined agreement on some points, which or nearly 60 percent of the world’s together and scaled up efforts as would be affirmed throughout the population, will live in cities. New well. Forum. We must redouble efforts to

132 OF INTEREST provide high-quality information to based conversation based on high- policy makers and the public at large. quality information, “using research We must present the evidence and science—coupled with local as clearly as possible, without knowledge—to understand risk and overstating our case, and make inform decision making, while taking sure to acknowledge the role of time to work through all the issues, uncertainty. We must balance the building trust, and eventually making importance of technological innovation the right decisions—together.” with the value found in the “wisdom Contributors to the session of crowds” by seeking consensus among experts to complement the Moderator: Matt Frei, Europe Editor, Channel 4 News (UK) information produced by our most advanced climate models. We must Panelists use the political opportunities that Sir Edward Lister, Chief of Staff and disasters afford, but also provide Deputy Mayor, Policy and Planning, information that allows policy Greater London Authority, UK makers and the public to visualize Mayor Dalziel of Christchurch Roman Frigg, Director of the Centre for Philosophy of Natural and Social and understand the risks they face— brought these themes together, Science, Professor in the Department of before disaster strikes. sharing her own experience Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method, confronting disasters—most and Co-Director of the Centre for the We were reminded of these themes notably the earthquake that shook Analysis of Time Series, London School in multiple ways. Familiar London her city in February 2011—and of Economics scenes (Tower Bridge, House of describing the policy struggles Aris Alip, Managing Director, Centre Parliament, the city’s skyline) were entailed in pursuing recovery and for Agricultural and Rural Development shown under water at one moment facing risk proactively. Despite the Mutually Reinforcing Institutions and subject to extreme heat and notable events that have affected Honorable Lianne Dalziel, Mayor, City drought at the next, suggesting the Christchurch, Mayor Dalziel believes of Christchurch, New Zealand wide range of possible scenarios that much more must be done to Honorable Patricia de Lille, Mayor, City produced by climate change convince constituents of the risks of Cape Town, South Africa computer models, as well as the they face and to encourage them to difficulty of choosing rational change their behavior. Endnotes government policy in response to 1 See for example The Economist, “The the threat of climate change. “I always felt that if you Laws of the City,” June 23, 2012; and gave people access to expert citylab, which is part of The Atlantic. The example of Cape Town made information and scientific advice, they would be able to make good 2 Thomas Friedman, “I Want to Be a clear the importance of engaging Mayor,” New York Times, July 27, 2013. decisions. But actually, despite all groups in the city community all of the publicity on climate 3 Swiss Re, “Mind the Risk: Cities under with risk information and warning change, on sea-level rise, and Threat from Natural Disasters,” 2013; systems, and reminded us that everything we’ve experienced and Henrike Brecht, Uwe Deichmann, and in our own earthquake events Hyoung Gun Wang, “A Global Urban Risk poverty and injustice often fuel Index,” Policy Research Working Paper [in Christchurch], there are still vulnerability. Apartheid created 6506, World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013. people who want to develop in a land-use system that shunted areas that we should be thinking 4 For the Making Cities Resilient campaign, oppressed South Africans into about in a different light.” see http://www.unisdr.org/campaign/ isolated, risky, and unsuitable resilientcities/; for 100 Resilient Cities http://www.100resilientcities.org housing, and those effects continue But the mayor sees a path forward, to this day. in which we move to an issues-

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UNDERSTANDING RISK Producing Actionable Information