Research The Possible Result of Regional Nuclear War: A Major Disruption of the World's Food Resources, Climate and Life as We Know It Anyone who believes that a regional dispute using nuclear can be kept strictly contained within a limited area is gravely mistaken, warns Dr. Yoav Yair of the Open University Department of Natural Sciences and Director of the Center for Technology in Distance Education (Shoham). Speaking at an Open University symposium on natural catastrophes, Atmospheric Scientist Dr. Yair warned that the possible effects of nuclear war – winter all year round, illnesses and hunger – would be felt all over the world.

Local economies and communications symposium on "Cruel : Natural program, promoted an international are commonly spoken of as linked in Disasters and ." agreement banning nuclear testing in what amounts to a global village. We the atmosphere. The agreement was still tend to think of regional warfare Concern about the effects of nuclear signed in 1963, and today, all nuclear as a local affair that affects only those war on the earth's climate is not new. tests take place underground. unfortunate people who happen to be Even in the 1950s and 60s, scientists in the immediate area. That is no longer worried about the possibility of During the between the the case when war turns nuclear. disastrous effects, although they didn't US and the , strategic yet have the appropriate tools to reach planners devised the "Mutual Assured Due to our complex global climate definite conclusions. A major concern Destruction" doctrine (MAD), which system, the various physical processes then was the issue of banning nuclear posited the decreased likelihood of taking place in the atmosphere, and the tests on land, sea or air, particularly nuclear war, since both sides would interrelationship between them, such when it became clear that a nuclear fear such an outbreak. Atmospheric an event can turn into a global disaster test at a height of 10 km over Nevada scientists, trying to assess the outcome that can affect the entire future of the had caused radioactive pollution not of a nuclear war between the US planet. Dr. Yoav Yair, a specialist in only over the desert, but as far away and USSR simulated the scenario atmospheric research, spoke on the as Canada and Siberia. by "deploying" 5,000 megatons of ominous topic "Return of Nuclear nuclear weapons. The result: about a Winter – Climatic Results of Regional Soviet scientist Andrei Sakharov, sixth of the urban area of the northern Nuclear War" at an Open University who then headed the Russian nuclear hemisphere would be devastated.

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A black carpet of dust and smoke, would send up into the atmosphere, blocking solar radiation, would remain We still tend to think of there would be many fire storms, up to two years in the stratosphere, and regional warfare as a resulting in even more massive the bleak outcome would be "nuclear local affair that affects amounts of dust and smoke. Winds winter," following a drastic drop in would blow the smoke around the global temperatures. Water sources only those unfortunate globe, blocking the sun's rays and would be polluted and agriculture people who happen to lowering the temperatures. Growing would suffer catastrophically. be in the immediate seasons would be shortened, and water sources would be polluted. All Affecting the Atmosphere area. That is no longer that, of course, would be in addition to There are historical precedents the case. Such an event the devastating effects of radioactive for a similar, albeit smaller-scale, can turn into a global . disaster. The climatic influence of major upheavals, whether natural or disaster that can affect Another fatal consequence would be man-made, is no longer a matter of the entire future of the destruction of much of the ozone level speculation. Many events have been planet. in the lower stratosphere, due to a seen to have had a dramatic affect on chemical reaction with the radioactive the earth, such as the 1816 Tambora smoke. It has been calculated that volcano eruption in Indonesia. Ash Not only had the world changed, but about 50-70% of the ozone at the north particles stayed in the atmosphere for there were now new scientific climatic and south poles and 10% of the ozone up to several years. They were spread simulation models which promised more at the equators would be destroyed, by winds around the globe and blocked accurate predictions, based on accurate affecting human and animal life. The the sun. As a result, 1816 was dubbed and detailed satellite photographs which resulting nuclear holocaust would the "year without a summer." Average show even buildings and trees in areas destroy the entire way of life in the global temperatures dropped, causing affected by the war. northern hemisphere, and eventually significant agricultural problems and all over the world. famine in many parts of Europe. The current study posits a hypothetical local war between India and Pakistan, And if "local" nuclear weapons were The earlier model of prediction of using all the latest research models. to be used in a conflict between Israel the results of nuclear war was seen as What would happen if "only" 50 bombs and Iran? Due to their geographic too simplistic and extreme and more on each side were used, of the size of position, the results, say the scientists, attention was given to topics like global the bombs used in Hiroshima? would be very similar. The whole warming. But by 2006, researchers world would be the eventual loser and had returned to studying what might The results were chilling – literally. In mankind and life as we know it would happen if nuclear weapons were used. addition to the dust that the explosions be severely impacted.

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