Mediterranean Politics | Middle East : The Year of the Elections and Elusive Political Reforms

Emad El-Din Shahin Mubarak and the grooming of his son The Amendment of Article 76: Associate Professor, to possibly take over power after him. Conditional Contestation Panorama The American University in In a relatively short time, several protest movements emerged including Kifaya President Mubarak’s announcement in (Enough), the National Rally for De- February 2005 to allow for an amend- mocratic Change, in addition to tens of ment of Article 76, which dealt with the The year 2005 was a momentous, yet pro-change groups. The country’s main rules for the selection of the president, turbulent one for Egypt. The country Islamic movement, the Muslim Broth- came as a surprise. After all, the li- witnessed two major elections, presi- ers, joined the pro-reform movement censed opposition parties had already 2006 dential and parliamentary, a vibrant and staged a number of massive accepted during their dialogue with movement towards political reform, demonstrations across the country, the regime to drop this demand for Med. and a remarkable political mobility. All calling for a faster pace for the reforms the time being. Several factors could this came against a background of in- and expanding public freedoms. The explain Mubarak’s decision to change ternal domestic pressures on the re- judges also joined the pro-reform this article. The way the article was gime to expand the scope of pluralism, movement and pressed the regime for amended clearly served Mubarak to and amidst concerns that President certain demands that would ensure the boost his legitimacy through low-risk

Mubarak would run for office for a fifth independence of the judiciary in return competitive elections and would pave 129 term, thus ruling Egypt for 29 years. for their supervision over the presi- the way for his son to take over pow- The increased interest of external ac- dential and parliamentary elections, er in a seemingly more “democratic” tors, particularly the US and the EU, in scheduled to take place in September way. The amendment allowed for more political reforms has also prompted and November, respectively. All these than one candidate to run for the pres- the regime to introduce a series of pro-reform forces seem to have reach- idency. However, it introduced elabo- measures that allowed the country, for ed an agreement on a clear list of de- rate conditions that make it almost im- the first time since it became a repu- mands that included ending the state possible for a non-National Democratic blic, to have a multi-candidate presi- of emergency (in effect since Mubarak Party member (NDP, the state party), dential elections and a relatively more assumed power in 1981); freedom of particularly independents, to stand a contested legislative elections. association; holding free and clean chance of being eligible to become It is uncertain, however, whether these elections, changing the Constitution, a candidate. To stand for election, the measures will allow Egypt to embark on limiting the powers of the president; amended article allows only candi- the threshold of a genuine democrati- granting more authority to the parlia- dates of political parties that had won zation. As it seems, Egypt presents a ment; and enhancing the indepen- 5% of the seats in the Parliament to classical case of an authoritarian or a dence of the Judiciary. To circumvent run. It requires independent candi- semi-authoritarian regime that suffers the growing demands for reform, the dates to secure 250 signatures of from a clear erosion of its legitimacy regime engaged the licensed opposi- elected officials in the Parliament, the and popularity, low capacity to ad- tion parties in a closed dialogue, for Shoura Council, and local councils. dress the economic and social pro- which it has set and controlled the re- Despite the reservations of the oppo- blems of large segments of society, a form agenda. It dismissed any discus- sition parties, the amendment was ap- crisis of political succession, and an in- sion of the possibility of amending the proved by almost 83% in a popular creasing opposition to a possible Sy- constitution, changing the rules of the referendum on May 25th, a day that rian-style hand-over of power to Mu- presidential elections, or lifting the state was marred by state brutality against barak’s son, Gamal. All these issues of emergency. It allowed for minor protesters who opposed the way the have emboldened various groups and changes in some of the existing res- amendment was legally drafted. State- segments in the society during 2004 trictive laws that regulate the formation backed thugs sexually molested and and 2005 to articulate publicly their of political parties and the electoral beat several female protesters. The protest against a further extension for system. violence triggered a wide domestic anger, as well as criticism from the reflecting the lack of popularity of the the past years has been meaningless. outside world. political parties. Though his victory It has not enabled the party to gain came as no surprise, the results of the popularity or connect with the ordinary presidential elections could hardly en- people. The elections highlighted the The Presidential Elections: New able Mubarak to claim a new legitima- place of the Muslim Brothers as the Form… Same Results cy. main opposition force in the country and allowed them to run on a broad Ten candidates contested the presi- pro-reform platform. As with regards dential elections that took place on The Parliamentary Elections: to the secular and liberal opposition September 7th. This was preceded The Limits for the Reforms parties, the elections once again un- with public election campaigns, in which derscored their weaknesses in socie- the state media maintained some de- The Parliamentary elections of 2005 ty and their inability to mobilize a siz- gree of neutrality. For the first time, clearly showed the limits to political able popular support. were exposed to different reforms, as they were marred by state views attempting to address their do- violence, intimidation of voters, and rig- mestic problems. Mubarak, who was ging. The elections were held over three The Aftermath of the Elections: Panorama projected in a new look, made expan- phases to ensure complete judicial su- Can’t Teach an Old Party New sive campaign promises focusing on pervision. Mubarak promised a clean Tricks the creation of new jobs, providing and transparent election. Nonetheless, housing and introducing further politi- the second and third phases were char- Following the elections, several secu- cal reforms. It is clear from the results acterized by severe irregularities, vote- lar and liberal opposition parties began of the elections that what changed was stuffing, thuggery, and state violence to disintegrate due to internal power

2006 the form, but not the substance of this that resulted in seven deaths and tens struggles, as well as to regime inter- particular aspect of Egyptian politics. of causalities. The state party, NDP, vention. Ayman Nour’s newly esta- Med. Despite the fact that this was the first won 314 out of 454 seats (70%). The blished party, al-Ghad, split into two competitive elections in post 1952 Re- Muslim Brothers made a strong show- factions. Nour himself, a major con- volution Egypt, voters turn-out was ing as they captured 88 seats (20%) tender against Mubarak during the Sep- strikingly low, reaching only 23%. The – the highest number of seats an op- tember Presidential elections, was sen- majority of voters (77%) demonstrated position group has captured over the tenced on December 24th to five-years a high level of apathy, perhaps send- past 50 years. The rest of the opposi- in prison for allegedly forging mem-

130 ing a message of no confidence in the tion parties combined won only 12 bership signatures. The Wafd Party un- whole process. Mubarak still won more seats (3.4%); and the independents derwent a major rift, as members of its than 88.5% (6.3 million) of the valid captured 6% of the seats. Though still High Committee fired the party’s leader, votes (7.3 million); Ayman Nour, the in control with a two-thirds majority in Noman Gomaa, because of his autho- leader of the newly formed Ghad (To- the Parliament, the NDP’s performance ritarian leadership style, triggering a morrow) Party, came second with 8% was astonishingly poor. In reality, the potential split and the possibility of (540,000); Noman Gouma, the head of party candidates who ran on the NDP’s a freeze on the party’s activities. The the historic Wafd Party, came third with lists won only 33.5% of the seats (they leftist Tagamou and the Nasserite Par- less than 3% (200,000). A careful read- lost 287 out of 432 contested seats). ties experienced major internal dissents ing of the results shows that Mubarak The NDP was rescued only by allow- and increasing calls for overhauling, won only 19.6% of the 32 million reg- ing the winning party members, who after their poor performance in the Par- istered voters; and less than 12% of the were not originally nominated by the liamentary elections. eligible voters (48 million). Ayman Nour party and had to run as independents, The NDP too undertook a major reshuf- emerged as the major challenger to to re-join the party, thus bringing its fling within its highest structures, as the president, and a possible future seats in the Parliament up to 314. President Mubarak dismissed promi- threat. The results also reflected the The Parliamentary elections have been nent elements of the party’s old guards, profound structural weaknesses of the revealing in many respects. They clear- expanded the membership of the Ge- opposition parties in the country. Typ- ly show how far the regime would go neral Secretariat, and appointed new ically, the political parties were divided with reforms. The Egyptian regime will members known to be close to his son and failed to back a single opposition allow reforms only as long as they do Gamal. This move has been interpret- candidate to run against the incum- not alter the structures of power in the ed as marking the victory of the new bent president. Some opposition par- country. It is not willing to share pow- guards, led by Gamal, within the party ties, like the leftist Tagamu and the er or allow for meaningful reforms that and as further consolidating Gamal’s in- Nasserites, boycotted the elections; would weaken its grip over the sys- fluence. while the allowed tem, the reform agenda, and the re- The Muslim Brothers, who appear to its members to vote, but did not favour form process. The poor performance of be coherent and to have their own vi- a particular candidate. Seven party the state party equally proves that the sion of change, seem to adopt a prag- leaders who ran against the president overhauling process of the NDP that matic attitude. To avert a potential received a total of only 2% of the votes, has undertaken over crackdown or down-sizing by the re- ment; expressingwillingnesstojoin on themonitoringroleofparlia- on presidentialcandidacy;focusing the president;removingrestrictions form agenda:limitingthepowersof continued tofocusonabroadpro-re- tellectuals andtheCopts.Theyhave concerns ofthecountry’ssecularin- concerns. Theytriedtoaddressthe showing intheelectionshasraised file sincetheelections.Theirstrong gime, they have maintainedalowpro- spectrum. Onthedownside,re- process energizedthewholepolitical list ofreformdemands;theelection seems tobeanagreementonaclear seems tohavebuiltamomentum;there trations. Thepro-reformmovement both greathopesandenormousfrus- 2005 willberememberedasayearof When itcomestoreforms,theyear needs oftheirconstituency. focusing ondomesticissuesandthe the oppositionblockinparliament; impact onEgypt’spoliticallife. litical vitalitythatwillhavealong-term rate, 2005hasbroughtinaclearpo- of powerisremarkablylow. Atany willingness tochangethestructures its propensitytouseforceishigh;and external pressuresremainsunabated; ability tocircumventthedomesticand pace, andboundariesofreform;its gime isstillincontroloftheagenda,

131 Med. 2006 Panorama