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Wave 1 Vs Wave 2: Ontario LTC COVID-19 Cases 13,000

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Wave 1 Vs Wave 2: Ontario LTC COVID-19 Cases 13,000 Tracking the Spread of COVID-19: Large Outbreaks in Health Care Settings Summary & Report: Second Wave in Long-Term Care Infections & Deaths have Surpassed First Wave Updated to: February 9 2021 Release Date: February 17 2021 Wave 1 vs Wave 2: Ontario LTC COVID-19 cases 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 Number of Cases 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 17 24 7 14 21 28 23 Jun 9 Apr Jun 2 Jul 7 Jul 14 Jul 21 Jul 28 Aug 4 Mar Mar Mar 31 Apr Apr Apr May 5 Jun 16 Jun Aug 11 Aug 18 Aug 25 May 12 May 19 May 26 Jun 30 Sep 1 Sep 8 Feb 2 Feb 9 Sep 15 Sep 22 Sep 29 Oct 6 Nov 24 Dec 1 Dec 8 Jan 5 Jan 12 Jan 19 Oct 13 Oct 20 Oct 27 Nov 3 Nov 10 Nov 17 Dec 15 Dec 22 Dec 29 Jan 26 Wave 1 Wave 2 Date All data for markers in blue and red is from the daily epidemiologic reports by Public Health Ontario. Analysis: Status of Current Large Health Care Outbreaks Since our last update January 19, the large outbreaks (as defined by >10 people infected) in health care settings (hospitals, long-term care, retirement homes) continue to be alarming, despite overall case numbers in Ontario which, though still significant (we are back to end-of-October overall daily active case rates) are coming down: • The number of large outbreaks, although they have decreased slightly, remain high. However, the number of large outbreaks in long-term care homes has increased since our last update (January 19). • Almost half of the long-term care outbreaks are large • The geographic area in which there are large outbreaks has grown again in this report. This report shows the growth of the 155 currently active large outbreaks in health care settings. This is a decrease from our report on January 19 in which we found 177 large outbreaks. Of the 155 large active outbreaks (those which include more that 10 residents, patients, and staff) as of February 9, 2021: • 102 are in long-term care homes • 19 are in 15 hospitals • 30 are in retirement homes • 4 are in other health care facilities. The sizes of these 155 large outbreaks across all health care settings as of February 9 are as follows: • 155 outbreaks include 10 or more residents and staff infected; • 63 outbreaks include 50 or more residents and staff infected; • 24 outbreaks include 100 or more residents and staff infected; • 8 outbreaks include 150 or more residents and staff infected; • 4 outbreaks include 200 or more residents and staff infected; • 1 outbreak includes 250 or more residents and staff infected, and; • 1 outbreak includes 300 or more residents and staff infected. By comparison, the large long-term care outbreaks as of January 19 were as follows: 1 • 177 outbreaks included 10 or more residents and staff infected; • 66 outbreaks included 50 or more residents and staff infected; • 33 outbreaks included 100 or more residents and staff infected; • 16 outbreaks included 150 or more residents and staff infected; • 7 outbreaks included 200 or more residents and staff infected; • 3 outbreaks included 250 or more residents and staff infected, and; • 1 outbreak included 300 or more residents and staff infected. By our calculations, the number and size of these large active outbreaks has decreased as a number of extremely large outbreaks were resolved within the last week, though with significant deaths, such as the outbreak at Tendercare Living Centre (Toronto) that resolved on February 8th after 263 people were infected and 81 died, and the outbreak at Banwell Gardens (Niagara) that resolved on February 5th after 179 people were infected and 23 died. Consequently, the total number of people infected in active large outbreaks has also decreased. As of February 9, the cumulative number of residents and patients infected just in the currently active large outbreaks in health care settings is 5,092. This is an 11.4% decrease from our last report, January 19, when the cumulative number of residents/patients infected in the then-active large outbreaks was 5,750. The cumulative number of staff members infected in active large outbreaks is 3,289, which is an 14.6% decrease from 3,850 three weeks ago on January 19. The number of other cases (including unspecified cases and visitors) is 194, for a total of 8,575 cases cumulative in the currently active large outbreaks. Three weeks earlier, the total number of cases in the then-active large outbreaks was 9,779; thus, there was a 12.3% decrease in cases in currently active large health care outbreaks overall. Regardless of the decrease in the number of large outbreaks, almost half of the long-term care outbreaks that are currently active are large and have not been controlled effectively. Of the 208 active outbreaks in long-term care homes, 102 of them or 49% have more than 10 patients, residents, and staff infected and a number of these outbreaks are still growing. Additionally, 27% of all active outbreaks in retirement homes are large, as well as 32% of all active hospital COVID-19 outbreaks. 1 REPORT: Shocking Number of Long-Term Care Homes with Majority of Residents Infected – Data updated to January 19. Ontario Health Coalition. January 22 2021. https://www.ontariohealthcoalition.ca/index.php/report-shocking-number-of-long-term-care- homes-with-majority-of-residents-infected/ Even though there are fewer large outbreaks, the number of people deceased from those outbreaks has increased. With great sadness we report that 1,081 of those residents and patients have died in the currently active large outbreaks. These are huge numbers and they capture only the largest of the currently active outbreaks in health care. These numbers represent human beings and they underline the fact that the measures being taken to improve infection control and care in those facilities are not adequate to stop the spread of the virus. Long-term care: Over the winter holidays the case numbers in long-term care sky-rocketed, and we are still seeing a slight increase in the number of large long-term care outbreaks. In contrast, we are seeing the number of active long-term care outbreaks (of all size, including small ones) decrease. The death toll is increasing tragically, and we are now seeing the deaths following infections by several weeks. The geographic area of large long-term care outbreaks continues to expand, and large long-term care outbreaks can now be found across the entire breadth of southern Ontario and into northern Ontario. Growth in the number of people infected in long-term care 2nd wave: The number of cumulative cases in the second wave has far surpassed the amount from the first wave. Using Public Health Ontario’s daily epidemiologic reports, we have tracked the number of people infected by COVID-19 in long-term care homes since mid-March, and from the beginning of the pandemic to September 1 there had been 8,568 cumulative cases. From September 1 to current day, what we are counting as the second wave, the cumulative number of cases is 12,732 (8,910 residents and 3,801 staff). The total number of long-term care cases in the second wave is 4,164 more than there were at this point in the first wave (March 31 to August 25), or an increase of 49% from that of Wave 1. This is an enormous amount, and although the graph above (page 1) indicates that rate of infection in the second wave might be slowing down, it is not over. Since January, there have been 5,824 long-term care residents and staff infected with COVID-19, with 962 deaths as of February 9. This averages out to 1,165 new cases in staff and residents every week of 2021, and 194 deaths each week. Trend in the number of active long-term care outbreaks: • As of February 9 there are 208 active outbreaks in Ontario’s long-term care homes. 2 • As of January 19 there were 257 active outbreaks in Ontario’s long-term care homes. 3 • As of January 8 there were 231 active outbreaks in Ontario’s long-term care homes.4 • As of December 1 there were 118 active outbreaks in Ontario’s long-term care homes. 5 • As of November 17 there were 100 active long-term care outbreaks.6 • As of October 31 there were 76 active long-term care outbreaks.7 • As of September 30 there were 42 active long-term care outbreaks. 8 • As of September 1 there were 18 active long-term care outbreaks 9 2 Daily Epidemiologic Summary- COVID-19 in Ontario: January 15, 2020 to February 9, 2020. Public Health Ontario. February 10 2021. https://files.ontario.ca/moh-covid-19-report-en-2021-02-10_v2.pdf 3 Daily Epidemiologic Summary- COVID-19 in Ontario: January 15, 2020 to January 19, 2020. Public Health Ontario. January 20 2021. https://files.ontario.ca/moh-covid-19-report-en-2021-01-20_v2.pdf 4 Daily Epidemiologic Summary- COVID-19 in Ontario: January 15, 2020 to January 8, 2020. Public Health Ontario. January 9 2021. https://files.ontario.ca/moh-covid-19-report-en-2021-01-06.pdf 5 Daily Epidemiologic Summary- COVID-19 in Ontario: January 15, 2020 to December 1, 2020. Public Health Ontario. December 2 2020. https://files.ontario.ca/moh-covid-19-report-en-2020-12-02.pdf 6 Daily Epidemiologic Summary- COVID-19 in Ontario: January 15, 2020 to November 17, 2020.
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