A Forward Look at Electronics

In 1965 A forward look at electronics Now the modern counterparts of those leaders of science and industry who looked into the future in the first issue of Electronics predict what lies ahead in the next 35 years of the technology By C.H. Townes tubes and relays. But they are still very large by comparison with afew atoms, which should be all Provost of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology that is required to carry out most elementary com- and developer of the maser for microwave amplification puting processes. The proliferation and power of In the cell or in the human brain, nature has electronics is even more obvi- far outstripped our ability to pack together elements ous to us now than it was 35 which carry out coordinated and complex opera- years ago. Its rate of change tions. Our circuit elements are still enormously becomes ever more rapid, and large, clumsy, and expensive to make by compari- man's ability to solve technolo- son with the complex molecular organization and gical problems ever more im- control practiced everywhere by living organisms. pressive. Even the vision of the Clearly we can make remarkable progress in seven seers of 1930 failed to organizing information and controls with presently encompass such things as atomic energy, the tran- foreseeable techniques. This should help us under- sistor, or maser amplification. stand and better adapt the complex situations of It's true that electronics has continued to grow nature and of man. But the key to building flexible enormously. But the vacuum tube has, at least from information and control systems on the scale of a a relative point of view, recently been on the way few molecules per element is something which still out—replaced by a tiny speck of solid material. eludes us, and which could radically change our It's true we have controlled oscillators down close electronics of the future. to the infrared (and far beyond), but by atomic action rather than the vacuum tube. It's true we have transoceanic television, but By Eiichi Goto through the development of powerful rockets and solar cells. Associate professor of physics, the University of Tokyo, and developer of the parametron Are all these things now electronics? Yes, in a sense, because the vigorous and penetrating field In computer development in the of electronics has adopted and adapted them. Elec- past the emphasis has been tronics, and all that it embraces, will surely continue primarily on the search for new to be in the forefront of the fascinating exploration devices and new principles. Now of the universe and of man himself which lies we have the basis for exploring ahead; it will continue to eliminate drudgery, solve the technology of computer living and health problems, and provide toys and manufacture so that we can re- entertainment. duce its cost drastically. This Where are the areas of possible great develop- is likely to lead to a vast ex- ments, at the moment seemingly unattainable, but pansion of applications. yet worth man's vigorous efforts and not contrary Because of improved production techniques, the to our most sure understanding of the universe? price of a computer can be reduced by a factor of Of those which have some relation to present elec- 10 every decade. This would mean that acomputer tronics, enormously cheaper power is one. We have priced at $1 million today would cost only $10,000 not come close to turning the mass of matter by 1985, only $1,000 by 1995. around us efficiently into heat or electrical power. As we accomplish aprice drop of this magnitude, Another is our mastery of the small, or of the the computer will realize many of those ideas which complex. Computing components have steadily and were once regarded as pipe dreams. amazingly decreased in size since early vacuum For instance, inexpensive and portable automatic 106 Electronics IApril 19, 1965 .

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