NOT FOR QUOTATION WITHOUT PERMISSION OF THE AUTHOR "THE JAPANESE COMPUTER INDUSTRY: ITS ROOTS AND DEVELO~PENT'~ KO j i Kobayashi January 1980 CP-80-2 Presented at the Guest Seminar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, September 27, 1979, CoZZaborative Papers report work which has not been performed solely at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and which has received only limited review. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute, its National Member Organizations, or other organi- zations supporting the work. INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria Dr. ~ojiKobayashi is Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer of the Nippon Electric Co. Ltd., 33-1, Shiba 5-chome, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan. FOREWORD Dr. Koji Kobayashi, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer of the Nippon Electric Co. Ltd., visited IIASA on September 27tht 1979 at the invitation of Dr. Jermen Gvishiani, Chairman of IIASAts Council. In the course of his visit he presented the following paper at a seminar attended by members of IIASAts staff as well as some interested visitors from Vienna. Dr. Kobayashi has kindly agreed that his paper should be published as an IIASA Collaborative Paper. The relevance of this paper to IIASAKs research interests hardly needs emphasis. The tracing of the development of computers in Japan within the context of the communications industry is of relevance to the work we are undertaking improved scientific communication through computerized networks, tele- conferencing, etc. As an intimidating example of a successful innovation process it is of direct value to the Management and Technology task concerned with Innovation. The emphasis that is given to the software problem for the future is an indica- tion of the need for further research into the management/ computer interface in the coming decade, on the lines of the task under that heading also being tackled in the Management and Technology Area. But the paper is clearly of interest and significance to a wider public--and we are proud to issue it as a Collaborative Paper. Rolfe Tomlinson Area Chairman Management and Technology Area This paper was originally prepared under the title "Modelling for Management" for presentation at a Nater Research Centre (U.K. ) Conference on "River Pollution Control", Oxford, 9-11 Asril, 1979. Contents 1 . FIVE MILESTONES, 1 3. THE ROOTS OF THE JAPANESE COMPUTER INDUSTRY, 4 4. KNOWLEDGE- AND INFORMATION-INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES AS A MEANS OF CLOSING THE TECHNOLOGY GAP, 8 5. A PERSPECTIVE ON THE NEW SITUATION: "C & Cur 11 "The Japanese Computer Industry: Its Roots and Developmentn Koj i Kobayashi 1. FIVE MILESTONES I am greatly honored to have been invited to speak to you, researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). I have heard that this meeting was arranged by the considerate suggestion of Prof. Dr. J. M. Gvishiani after my visit with him in December of last year. I would like to take this opportunity to say a few words on the Japanese computer industry, its roots and future trends. The advent and development of computers in Japan have been founded on communications, and I hold high expectations for the future when the merging of the computer and communications will lead to the emergence of totally new abilities and functions inconceivable while the two existed as separate entities. This in turn will lead to the creation of many new technologies of value from the user's point of view. This is the direction which I intend to explore in my remarks today. This subject represents the theme on which as keynote speaker of Japan, I spoke at the 3rd U.S.A.-Japan Computer Conference held in San Francfsco, California,.U.S.A. in October 1978. At that time, I announced that th.e year 1978 marked the beginning of our new era of "C & C"--unification of computer and communications. I will speak to you with 1978 as the starting point. I would like each of you to visualize for yourseif the time span of which I am speaking. From my purely personal, experience-based viewpoint, a number of major milestones can be placed along a time axis divided at intervals of about 30 years (Figure 1 ) . (7Milestones I I Drive for domestic technology Establishment of domestic communication technology (Non-loaded cable carrier system) Ig3. H- H- Desolate period after the war ~nventionof the transistor by BTL (Root of electronics) Development of the domestic transistorized computer (Cradle of Japanese computer industry) Technology gap: Knowledge- and information- intensive industries 1978 I 1-0 I- 1st year of the "C & C" era Development of "C & C" r724 st century Figure 1. Milestones of the Japanese Electronics Industry How about 10 years ago? Japan's technology gap was being discussed in an international context. The existence of a gap at the same time means that there is scope for development, that there is potentiai. It was also at this time that emphasis began to be placed on the power of knowledge and information, or on the power of the intellect. And what about 10 years before that? It was at that very time that Japan's electronics industry came into being. The subsequent attainment of independence and the rapid progress made by the industry in Japan, alone among the world's indus- trial nations, must be attributed to the concerted efforts of the industry itself and the government's supportive policies. How about 10 years before? It was the desolate period after the war. Who, at that time, could have predicted the present vitality of the Japanese economy and electronics industry? In that year, however, on the other side of the Pacific, the invention of the transistor took place at the Bell Telephone Laboratories. And a decade before that? Those were the days of my youth, some 10 years after I entered the industry. In that year, a Japanese volunteer technical team was engaged in the construc- tion of a long-distance cable circuit using a nonloaded cable carrier system with a total length of 3,000 kilometers, which traversed the main island of Japan and crossed the Tsushima Strait and the Korean Peninsula to reach distant Shenyang in China. This was a great undertaking, on a level of accomplish- ment represented by Drs. Matsumae and Shinohara of the Ministry of Communications, predecessor of the present Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications. Let us now turn our gaze in the other direction, to a point 20 years hence. History will have drawn to close the 20th century, and the era of the 21st century will be within reach. The long-dreamed-of 21st century will be on the point of becoming a reality. We should take note that we now stand at the important turning point which is both the boundary and the link between the past and the future. 2. THE ORIGIN OF JAPAN'S DOMESTIC TECHNOLOGY I would like to begin on the subject from the time when I entered the industry, that is, from the late 1920's to the early 1930's. What was the situation of technology and industry in the telecommunications field in Japan at that time? As many as 90 percent of the patents were foreign, and the related materials and parts industries were in so poor a state as to be almost non- existent. Almost all of the Zmportant materials and equipment were imported from overseas. We young engineers inevitably felt a sense of calling to overcome this situation somehow. We must acquire our own tech- nology and our own engineering,, for the sake of both th.e country and the people--this was the spirit which welled up in us, and this was the background of the domestic production movement which arose of necessity in prewar Japan.. At that time, the leading enterprises overseas were the "giant" 'firms. Before such giants, we were nothing but a tiny puppy. In general, no country should be dependent-on others for the important sectors of its infrastructure such. as communi- cations. It must gain the ability to supply its own needs with its own technology. This trend gained strength around 3932-1933, with the slogan adopted by the engineers being "domestic tech- nology". In order to concentrate one's energies, one needs a goal, a specific problem. The goal which appeared at that time can be said to have been the "non-loaded cable carrier system." The puppy, with its new technology, confronted the giants with their loaded-system patents who were then ruling the communica- tions world. This can only be ascribed to the boldness of youth. We were determined to succeed, whether it took us 10 years or 20, and since in fact the project did not reach tech- nical perfection until after the war, it did indeed require 20 years. However, I did not raise the subject of the technology of 40 years ago for the sake of reminiscing about the history of communications technology but because I see here a lesson, an example, for the further development of Japanese computer industry. As in the case of communications, provided that we estab- lish ourselves firmly, without being overly impatient or depend- ing on expedient borrowings but meeting the challenge with our own strength, I believe that the Japanese computer industry can also walk tall, ranking with the giants of the world in the future. 3. THE ROOTS OF THE JAPmESE COMPUTER INDUSTRY Next, we come to the second milestone. How did Japan and its electronics industry stand in the year 7948? Research on radio wave technology in specified fields had been prohibited by the Occupation Forces.