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Towards the Geopolitics of Flows FIIA REPORT 40 Towards the Geopolitics of Flows Implications for Finland Mika Aaltola Juha Käpylä Harri Mikkola Timo Behr FIIA REPORT 40 Towards the Geopolitics of Flows Implications for Finland Towards the Geopolitics of Flows Implications for Finland Mika Aaltola Juha Käpylä Harri Mikkola Timo Behr ULKOPOLIITTINEN INSTITUUTTI UTRIKESPOLITISKA INSTITUTET THE FINNISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS WWW.FIIA.FI FIIA rePort 40 Reports can be ordered from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. +358 9 432 7707 [email protected] All FIIA reports and other publications are also available on our website at www.fiia.fi. Language editing: Lynn Nikkanen Graphic design: Nordenswan & Siirilä Oy / Tuomas Kortteinen Layout: Tuomas Kortteinen Printed by: Juvenes Print - Suomen Yliopistopaino Oy The Finnish Institute of International Affairs Ulkopoliittinen instituutti PL 400 00161 Helsinki Finland www.fiia.fi [email protected] ISBN 978-951-769-419-3 (print) ISBN 978-951-769-418-6 (web) ISSN 1458-994X (print) ISSN 2323-5454 (web) The Finnish Institute of International Affairs is an independent research institute that produces high-level research to support political decision- making and public debate both nationally and internationally. The Institute undertakes quality control in editing publications but the responsibility for the views expressed ultimately rests with the authors. Acknowledgments The authors of this report would like to express their gratitude to the external funders of the research project, The Scientific Advisory Board for Defence (Maanpuolustuksen tieteellinen neuvottelukunta) and the National Emergency Supply Agency (Huoltovarmuuskeskus). In particular, the authors would like to extend thanks to Pekka Appelqvist, Ilkka Kananen, Miikka Salonen, Christian Fjäder, Hannu Hernesniemi, Nuutti Nikula, Terhi Ylitalo, Juha Martelius and Maija Salonen for their support and comments during the research project. Contents 1 INtroDUCtIoN 13 1.1 Research objectives 15 1.2 Research premises 16 1.3 Outline of the report 19 2 THe PoLItICAL oNTOLoGY oF GLoBAL FLoWS 29 2.1 Introduction 29 2.2 The emerging geopolitics of flows 31 2.3 Flow security and power 43 2.4 Flow crisis and disruptions 50 3 THe GLoBAL CoMMoNS AS SPACeS oF FLoWS 61 3.1 Introduction 61 3.2 A brief history of the global commons 62 3.3 The growing importance of the global commons 65 3.4 The redefinition of the global commons: Importance, vulnerability and threats 68 4 THe trANSForMING GLoBAL MArItIMe DoMAIN 79 4.1 Introduction 79 4.2 The fragmenting maritime domain 80 4.3 The end of maritime hegemony 84 4.4 The battle for the maritime routes 88 4.5 What future for the maritime domain? 93 5 THe FINNISH MArItIMe DoMAIN: tHe PoSSIBILItY oF ArCtIC GLoBAL FLoWS? 99 5.1 Introduction 99 5.2 The transforming Arctic 105 5.3 Arctic warming as a flow enabler 108 5.4 The geopolitics of Arctic flows: The growing Arctic interests of global players 113 5.4.1 Russia: The key player in the Arctic 114 5.4.2 China: Preparing for the Arctic opening 117 5.4.3 The United States: From a reluctant to an emerging Arctic player 119 5.4.4 The European Union: The Arctic gets closer to Brussels 121 5.5 Arctic conflict potential and flows: Towards a stable riverbed or stormy waters? 123 5.5.1 Intra-Arctic conflict potential: Key disputes and governance challenges 124 5.5.2 Arctic conflict potential defused: Towards a steady hum of flows? 127 5.6 Arctic economic potential and flows: Key challenges 132 5.6.1 Maritime transport flows 133 5.6.2 Natural resource exploitation 138 5.7 Future Arctic trajectories 140 6 FINNISH NAtIoNAL PrePAreDNeSS PLANNING IN tHe AGe oF GLoBAL FLoWS 151 6.1 Introduction 151 6.2 Beyond “Finland as an island”: A transforming national mindset 153 6.3 Finnish security and defence policy: From self-reliance to international co-operation 162 6.4 Finnish security of supply: From stockpiles to complex continuity management 172 6.5 The uturef of Finnish security-of-supply planning: key aspects to consider 178 7 CoNCLUDING reMArKS 195 reFereNCeS 201 PrevIously PUBLISHeD IN tHe SerIeS 213 1 1. Introduction TheFIIA report Towards the Geopolitics of Flows: Implications for Finland is the final report of the research project funded by the Scientific Advisory Board for Defence (Maanpuolustuksen tieteellinen neuvottelukunta; MATINE) and the National Emergency Supply Agency, NESA (Huoltovarmuuskeskus; HVK), conducted during 1.1.2013-30.4.2014. The report is premised on the assumption that geopolitics is increasingly defined by the emerging and strengthening force of global flows. This entails a strategic shift of balance away from traditional geopolitics focused on relatively self-reliant territorial sovereign states towards taking into account more dynamic geopolitical interdependencies. The approach adopted here entails a growing emphasis on the importance of various flows (e.g. of goods, finance, people, information) — and their stability, reliability and security (or lack thereof) — that rely on and use the various commons domains, namely the high seas, airspace, space and cyberspace. All sovereign actors are reliant on global flows to a growing degree. The maritime domain is of particular importance as various maritime contexts (e.g. critical maritime corridors) are essential to global trade flows of goods, resources, and energy as well as to the security of various littoral or maritime nations. This also applies to Finland. The fluid global circulations of resources, goods, data, and people are increasingly challenging the older geopolitical paradigms of power and security. Newer signifiers of security are strengthening as states and societies become connected and dependent on the overall circulation. The transformation brings scenarios such as security of supply, resilience, and flow security into increasing focus. Increasingly, geo-economic realities intertwine with the older notions of security. 13 Instead of disappearing, the traditional security challenges have acquired new meanings in the changed context (e.g. Nye 2004; Youngs 2011; Zarate 2012; Moisio and Paasi 2013). The flow effect on states, economies, and societies is uneven in that smaller actors face stronger adaptive pressures and crosscutting challenges to their security. The slogan of the day seems to be that, for smaller economies in particular, the securing of access to these flows is a crucial imperative. However, agile adaptation is seen as a characteristic of smaller states. They have much experience in being relatively dependent on global interlinkages due to their more specialized economies. At the same time, the resilience and societal stability of the relatively exposed smaller states are called into question. Furthermore, the transformation challenges the status and identity of states. As new regions or sub-regions, such as the Arctic, become linked to the global flows, the political geography and territory are significantly transformed. The localities become re-contextualized as parts of the emerging global hub-and-spoke structure, rather than in their traditional national or regional context. This report seeks to develop an overview of the security pressures that Finland faces as a relatively small, highly open and connected state. Finland has been, on many fronts, a success story. It has actively sought to become connected to the global flows. However, the increase in new connections is also likely to result in new vulnerabilities. For example, the development of Helsinki as a Baltic Sea hub and a multi- dimensional gateway (e.g. maritime, air connections) has also exposed the functioning Finnish society to more complex, potential security- of-supply vulnerabilities. The frequency of inter-state war has declined globally since the end of the Cold War. This decline is commonly attributed to the spread of democratic political systems and to the growing interdependence between states. In Europe, in particular, the central belief has been that the deepening integration has made inter-state war an anachronism. The building of common European institutions is believed to have reached an escape velocity from the traditional map of geopolitics and zero-sum games. This interdependency emphasis has highlighted the emergence of economic and technological dynamics as an added reality that has re-contextualized the harder geopolitical facts (e.g. Luttwak 1990). The key strategies and planning for the security of the Finnish state and society have been based on this interdependent paradigm and geo-economic fundamentals. However, as the Ukrainian situation has demonstrated, today’s political reality is characterized by mixed 14 TOWARDS THE GEOPOLITICS OF FLOWS tendencies. The traditional geopolitical competition is still a dynamic that co-exists with patterns and tendencies that are clearly geo- economic and flow-related (e.g. Cowen and Smith 2009). In this situation of blurred paradigms, the Finnish preparedness planning and security of supply must take into consideration two co-existing security characteristics: traditional hard security risks that may materialize, as well as the newer focus on making the international connections, interlinkages and flows as steady and resilient as possible. The report analyzes transformations in global geopolitics and geopolitical thought, with a specific focus on global flows, global commons, and especially the global maritime domain. The report investigates the dynamics in the Finnish maritime domain with a special focus on the opening Arctic region as a potential space of global flows. The report also discusses Finland in the world of global flows by rethinking Finnish cultural cognitions about the country’s place in the world, particularly the metaphor of “Finland as an island”. Based on this, the report maps out the ongoing transformation in the Finnish preparedness planning paradigm – including military and general security of supply – in the world of global flows. 1.1 RESEARcH objEcTIVES This report should be approached as an initial step in developing new conceptual tools and a theoretical framework that is suited to the strategic analysis of the contemporary world order, and thus also of the Finnish geopolitical situation.
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