Economics, Steady State
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Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions by Irving Fisher
THE DEBT-DEFLATION THEORY OF GREAT DEPRESSIONS BY IRVING FISHER INTRODUCTORY IN Booms and Depressions, I have developed, theoretically and sta- tistically, what may be called a debt-deflation theory of great depres- sions. In the preface, I stated that the results "seem largely new," I spoke thus cautiously because of my unfamiliarity with the vast literature on the subject. Since the book was published its special con- clusions have been widely accepted and, so far as I know, no one has yet found them anticipated by previous writers, though several, in- cluding myself, have zealously sought to find such anticipations. Two of the best-read authorities in this field assure me that those conclu- sions are, in the words of one of them, "both new and important." Partly to specify what some of these special conclusions are which are believed to be new and partly to fit them into the conclusions of other students in this field, I am offering this paper as embodying, in brief, my present "creed" on the whole subject of so-called "cycle theory." My "creed" consists of 49 "articles" some of which are old and some new. I say "creed" because, for brevity, it is purposely ex- pressed dogmatically and without proof. But it is not a creed in the sense that my faith in it does not rest on evidence and that I am not ready to modify it on presentation of new evidence. On the contrary, it is quite tentative. It may serve as a challenge to others and as raw material to help them work out a better product. -
Inflation and the Business Cycle
Inflation and the business cycle Michael McMahon Money and Banking (5): Inflation & Bus. Cycle 1 / 68 To Cover • Discuss the costs of inflation; • Investigate the relationship between money and inflation; • Introduce the Romer framework; • Discuss hyperinflations. • Shocks and the business cycle; • Monetary policy responses to business cycles. • Explain what the monetary transmission mechanism is; • Examine the link between inflation and GDP. Money and Banking (5): Inflation & Bus. Cycle 2 / 68 The Next Few Lectures Term structure, asset prices Exchange and capital rate market conditions Import prices Bank rate Net external demand CPI inflation Bank lending Monetary rates and credit Policy Asset purchase/ Corporate DGI conditions Framework sales demand loans Macro prudential Household policy demand deposits Inflation expectations Money and Banking (5): Inflation & Bus. Cycle 3 / 68 Inflation Definition Inflation is a sustained general rise in the price level in the economy. In reality we measure it using concepts such as: • Consumer Price Indices (CPI); • Producer Price Indices (PPI); • Deflators (GDP deflator, Consumption Expenditure Deflator) Money and Banking (5): Inflation & Bus. Cycle 4 / 68 Inflation: The Costs If all prices are rising at same rate, including wages and asset prices, what is the problem? • Information: Makes it harder to detect relative price changes and so hinders efficient operation of market; • Uncertainty: High inflation countries have very volatile inflation; • High inflation undermines role of money and encourages barter; • Growth - if inflation increases by 10%, reduce long term growth by 0.2% but only for countries with inflation higher than 15% (Barro); • Shoe leather costs/menu costs; • Interaction with tax system; • Because of fixed nominal contracts arbitrarily redistributes wealth; • Nominal contracts break down and long-term contracts avoided. -
Special Series: the Challenge of Global Transformation— Humanity and the Environment (1)
Special Series: The Challenge of Global Transformation— Humanity and the Environment (1) Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker Daisaku Ikeda Starting with this issue, The Journal of Oriental Studies will be presenting the two concluding installments of “The Challenge of Global Transformation—Humanity and the Environment,” a dialogue on build- ing a sustainable global society between German environmentalist Dr. Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker and Daisaku Ikeda, president of the Soka Gakkai International (SGI) and founder of the Institute of Oriental Philosophy (IOP). One of the foremost authorities on global environmental policy, Dr. Weizsäcker serves as co-president of the Club of Rome. Mr. Ikeda is also an honorary member of the acclaimed think tank and has published dialogues with its cofounder Aurelio Peccei and honorary president Ricardo Díez-Hochleitner. Dr. Weizsäcker met Mr. Ikeda for the first time in Tokyo in March 2010, with the two agreeing to continue their discourse by correspon- dence since then. Their dialogue was serialized in the Japanese com- mentary monthly Ushio and then in The Journal of Oriental Studies (Japanese Edition), from December 2011 through May 2014, over eight installments. Among the subjects they examine in this issue are the imperatives of achieving both social and environmental justice, ending “market fundamentalism,” and devising alternatives to GDP in measur- ing wealth. Ikeda: Since 2011, our dialogue has been published in six installments in the magazine Ushio. From the seventh installment onward, it will be published in English for the first time here in The Journal of Oriental Studies. Taking into consideration our discussions up to this point, I hope to explore with you, Dr. -
World Problematique
World Problematique Hugo Thiemann clarifies the Club of Rome’s role as catalyst in formulating values and defining goals for society. Governments must change from nature, and its global scope. By June to global problems. Thiemann believed their present preoccupation with 1970 at the Club’s meeting in Bern, that the enormous impact of The growth of Gross National Products, if Thiemann said, preliminary goals had Limits of Growth was due to its highly the human species is to survive with been set, a survey of methodologies visual and convincingly graphic display out falling into a state of worthless completed, and the statement of the of computer runs. Up till now, books existence. Physicists should be in ‘World Problematique’ prepared. But in that field had been mainly semantic duced to move from non-orientated or still the methods seemed vague, and exercises and could not hold the basic research on to projects aimed at it was realised that, for the programme reader's attention like The Limits to meeting the needs of global society. to become more concrete, great in Growth. Too many scientists are simply en tellectual effort would be required ; Thiemann did point out that there gaged in paper proliferation without a that would need financial resources had been much popular misconception sense of responsibility to society. which the Club of Rome could not over the status of the ‘models’ used, These challenging views were ex provide as an informal group. The but he was sure that physicists would pressed by Hugo Thiemann *, Director- Executive Committee now includes find the approach appealing. -
Measuring Progress in the Degrowth Transition to a Steady State Economy
ECOLEC-03966; No of Pages 11 Ecological Economics xxx (2011) xxx–xxx Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Ecological Economics journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon Measuring progress in the degrowth transition to a steady state economy Daniel W. O'Neill ⁎ Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK Center for the Advancement of the Steady State Economy, 5101 S. 11th Street, Arlington, VA 22204, USA article info abstract Article history: In order to determine whether degrowth is occurring, or how close national economies are to the concept of a Received 27 January 2011 steady state economy, clear indicators are required. Within this paper I analyse four indicator approaches that Received in revised form 16 April 2011 could be used: (1) Gross Domestic Product, (2) the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare, (3) biophysical Accepted 27 May 2011 and social indicators, and (4) a composite indicator. I conclude that separate biophysical and social indicators Available online xxxx represent the best approach, but a unifying conceptual framework is required to choose appropriate indicators and interpret the relationships between them. I propose a framework based on ends and means, Keywords: Indicators and a set of biophysical and social indicators within this framework. The biophysical indicators are derived Degrowth from Herman Daly's definition of a steady state economy, and measure the major stocks and flows in the Steady state economy economy–environment system. The social indicators are based on the stated goals of the degrowth Conceptual framework movement, and measure the functioning of the socio-economic system, and how effectively it delivers well- being. -
The Real Leaders Guide to Understanding Sustainability
THE REAL LEADERS GUIDE TO UNDERSTANDING SUSTAINABILITY Real-Leaders.com So, what is sustainability? Sustainability is the capacity to endure. In ecology the word describes how biological systems remain diverse and productive over time. Long-lived and healthy wetlands and forests are examples of sustainable biological systems. For humans, sustainability is the potential for long-term maintenance of well being, which has ecological, economic, political and cultural dimensions. Healthy ecosystems and environments are necessary to the survival and flourishing of humans and other organisms. There are a number of major ways of reducing negative human impact. The first of these is environmental management that is based largely on information gained from earth science, environmental science and conservation biology. The second approach is management of human consumption of resources, which is based largely on information gained from economics. A third more recent approach adds cultural and political concerns into the sustainability matrix. Sustainability interfaces with economics through the social and environmental consequences of economic activity. The economics of sustainability involves ecological economics – where social aspects, including cultural, health-related and monetary/financial aspects are integrated. Moving towards sustainability is also a social challenge that entails international and national law, urban planning and transport, local and individual lifestyles and ethical consumerism. Different ways of living more sustainably can take many forms, from reorganising living conditions (e.g., ecovillages, eco-municipalities and sustainable cities), reappraising economic sectors (permaculture, The Real Leaders Guide To Understanding Sustainability / Real-Leaders.com green building, sustainable agriculture), or work practices (sustainable architecture), using science to develop new technologies (green technologies, renewable energy and sustainable Fission and Fusion power), to adjustments in individual lifestyles that conserve natural resources. -
Unemployment Insurance and Macroeconomic Stabilization
153 Unemployment Insurance and Macroeconomic Stabilization Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Harvard University and the National Bureau of Economic Research John Coglianese, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Abstract Unemployment insurance (UI) provides an important cushion for workers who lose their jobs. In addition, UI may act as a macroeconomic stabilizer during recessions. This chapter examines UI’s macroeconomic stabilization role, considering both the regular UI program which provides benefits to short-term unemployed workers as well as automatic and emergency extensions of benefits that cover long-term unemployed workers. We make a number of analytic points concerning the macroeconomic stabilization role of UI. First, recipiency rates in the regular UI program are quite low. Second, the automatic component of benefit extensions, Extended Benefits (EB), has played almost no role historically in providing timely, countercyclical stimulus while emergency programs are subject to implementation lags. Additionally, except during an exceptionally high and sustained period of unemployment, large UI extensions have limited scope to act as macroeconomic stabilizers even if they were made automatic because relatively few individuals reach long-term unemployment. Finally, the output effects from increasing the benefit amount for short-term unemployed are constrained by estimated consumption responses of below 1. We propose five changes to the UI system that would increase UI benefits during recessions and improve the macroeconomic stabilization role: (I) Expand eligibility and encourage take-up of regular UI benefits. (II) Make EB fully federally financed. (III) Remove look-back provisions from EB triggers that make automatic extensions turn off during periods of prolonged unemployment. (IV) Add additional automatic extensions to increase benefits during periods of extremely high unemployment. -
Interactions Between Business Cycles, Financial Cycles and Monetary Policy: Stylised Facts1
Interactions between business cycles, financial cycles and 1 monetary policy: stylised facts Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi and Julien Matheron2 Introduction The spectacular rise in asset prices up to 2000 in most developed countries has attracted a great deal of attention and reopened the debate over whether these prices should be targeted in monetary policy strategies. Some observers see asset price developments, in particular those of stock prices, as being inconsistent with developments in economic fundamentals, ie a speculative bubble. This interpretation carries with it a range of serious consequences arising from the bursting of this bubble: scarcity of financing opportunities, a general decline in investment, a fall in output, and finally a protracted contraction in real activity. Other observers believe that stock prices are likely to have an impact on goods and services prices and thus affect economic activity and inflation. These theories are currently at the centre of the debate on whether asset prices should be taken into account in the conduct of monetary policy, ie as a target or as an instrument.3 However, the empirical link between asset prices and economic activity on the one hand, and the relationship between economic activity and interest rates or between stock prices and interest rates on the other, are not established facts. This study therefore sets out to identify a number of stylised facts that characterise this link, using a statistical analysis of these data (economic activity indicators, stock prices and interest rates). More specifically, we study the co-movements between stock market indices, real activity and interest rates over the business cycle. -
Ecological Economics and Sustainable Development, Selected Essays of Herman Daly ADVANCES in ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS Series Editor:Jeroen C.J.M
Ecological Economics and Sustainable Development, Selected Essays of Herman Daly ADVANCES IN ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS Series Editor:Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh, ICREA Professor, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain and Professor of Environmental and Resource Economics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Founding Editor:Robert Costanza, Director, University of Maryland Institute for Ecological Economics and Professor, Center for Environmental and Estuarine Studies and Zoology Department, USA This important series makes a significant contribution to the development of the principles and practices of ecological economics, a field which has expanded dra- matically in recent years. The series provides an invaluable forum for the publica- tion of high quality work and shows how ecological economic analysis can make a contribution to understanding and resolving important problems. The main emphasis of the series is on the development and application of new original ideas in ecological economics. International in its approach, it includes some of the best theoretical and empirical work in the field with contributions to funda- mental principles, rigorous evaluations of existing concepts, historical surveys and future visions. It seeks to address some of the most important theoretical questions and gives policy solutions for the ecological problems confronting the global village as we move into the twenty-first century. Titles in the series include: Economic Growth, Material Flows and the Environment New Applications of Structural Decomposition Analysis and Physical Input–Output Tables Rutger Hoekstra Joint Production and Responsibility in Ecological Economics On the Foundations of Environmental Policy Stefan Baumgärtner, Malte Faber and Johannes Schiller Frontiers in Ecological Economic Theory and Application Edited by Jon D. -
The Limits to Influence: the Club of Rome and Canada
THE LIMITS TO INFLUENCE: THE CLUB OF ROME AND CANADA, 1968 TO 1988 by JASON LEMOINE CHURCHILL A thesis presented to the University of Waterloo in fulfilment of the thesis requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in History Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, 2006 © Jason Lemoine Churchill, 2006 Declaration AUTHOR'S DECLARATION FOR ELECTRONIC SUBMISSION OF A THESIS I hereby declare that I am the sole author of this thesis. This is a true copy of the thesis, including any required final revisions, as accepted by my examiners. I understand that my thesis may be made electronically available to the public. ii Abstract This dissertation is about influence which is defined as the ability to move ideas forward within, and in some cases across, organizations. More specifically it is about an extraordinary organization called the Club of Rome (COR), who became advocates of the idea of greater use of systems analysis in the development of policy. The systems approach to policy required rational, holistic and long-range thinking. It was an approach that attracted the attention of Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau. Commonality of interests and concerns united the disparate members of the COR and allowed that organization to develop an influential presence within Canada during Trudeau’s time in office from 1968 to 1984. The story of the COR in Canada is extended beyond the end of the Trudeau era to explain how the key elements that had allowed the organization and its Canadian Association (CACOR) to develop an influential presence quickly dissipated in the post- 1984 era. The key reasons for decline were time and circumstance as the COR/CACOR membership aged, contacts were lost, and there was a political paradigm shift that was antithetical to COR/CACOR ideas. -
The Neoclassical Economics of Consumer Contracts
University of Chicago Law School Chicago Unbound Journal Articles Faculty Scholarship 2007 The Neoclassical Economics of Consumer Contracts Richard A. Epstein Follow this and additional works at: https://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/journal_articles Part of the Law Commons Recommended Citation Richard A. Epstein, "The Neoclassical Economics of Consumer Contracts," 92 Minnesota Law Review 803 (2007). This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Faculty Scholarship at Chicago Unbound. It has been accepted for inclusion in Journal Articles by an authorized administrator of Chicago Unbound. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Exchange The Neoclassical Economics of Consumer Contracts Richard A. Epsteint There is little doubt that the major new theoretical ap- proach to law and economics in the past two decades does not come from either of these two fields. Instead it comes from the adjacent discipline of cognitive psychology, which has now morphed into behavioral economics. Starting with the path- breaking work of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in the 1970s, the field has asked one question in a thousand guises: do ordinary people obey the principles of rational choice in making their decisions?' The usual answer given in the field is that in at least some domains they do not.2 The new law and economics literature uses these behavioral findings, especially in the study of cognitive bias, to open a new chapter in the long- standing debate over the extent to which market failures pave t The James Parker Hall Distinguished Service Professor of Law, The University of Chicago, and the Peter and Kirsten Bedford Senior Fellow, The Hoover Institution. -
Supply and Demand Is Not a Neoclassical Concern
Munich Personal RePEc Archive Supply and Demand Is Not a Neoclassical Concern Lima, Gerson P. Macroambiente 3 March 2015 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/63135/ MPRA Paper No. 63135, posted 21 Mar 2015 13:54 UTC Supply and Demand Is Not a Neoclassical Concern Gerson P. Lima1 The present treatise is an attempt to present a modern version of old doctrines with the aid of the new work, and with reference to the new problems, of our own age (Marshall, 1890, Preface to the First Edition). 1. Introduction Many people are convinced that the contemporaneous mainstream economics is not qualified to explaining what is going on, to tame financial markets, to avoid crises and to provide a concrete solution to the poor and deteriorating situation of a large portion of the world population. Many economists, students, newspapers and informed people are asking for and expecting a new economics, a real world economic science. “The Keynes- inspired building-blocks are there. But it is admittedly a long way to go before the whole construction is in place. But the sooner we are intellectually honest and ready to admit that modern neoclassical macroeconomics and its microfoundationalist programme has come to way’s end – the sooner we can redirect our aspirations to more fruitful endeavours” (Syll, 2014, p. 28). Accordingly, this paper demonstrates that current mainstream monetarist economics cannot be science and proposes new approaches to economic theory and econometric method that after replication and enhancement may be a starting point for the creation of the real world economic theory.