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Muutuv Majandus Ja Tööturg Changes in the Economy and Labour Market EESTI STATISTIKA STATISTICS ESTONIA MUUTUV MAJANDUS JA TÖÖTURG CHANGES IN THE ECONOMY AND LABOUR MARKET TALLINN 2014 Koostanud Statistikaameti peaanalüütik Siim Krusell (tel 625 8435). Compiled by Siim Krusell, Principal Analyst at Statistics Estonia (tel. +372 625 8435). Teadustoimetaja: Raul Eamets Toimetaja: Kairit Põder Tõlge: OÜ Triangular, Karin Sahk Inglise keele toimetajad: Karin Sahk, Helen Loode Küljendaja: Nele Sõstra Scientific editor: Raul Eamets Edited by Kairit Põder Translation into English by OÜ Triangular, Karin Sahk English edited by Karin Sahk, Helen Loode Layout by Nele Sõstra Kirjastanud Statistikaamet, Tatari 51, 10134 Tallinn Trükkinud Ofset OÜ, Paldiski mnt 25, 10612 Tallinn Published by Statistics Estonia, Tatari 51, 10134 Tallinn Printed by Ofset OÜ, Paldiski mnt 25, 10612 Tallinn Oktoober 2014 / October 2014 ISBN 978-9985-74-548-9 (trükis / hard copy) ISBN 978-9985-74-587-8 (PDF) Autoriõigus/Copyright: Statistikaamet, 2014 Kaanefoto / Cover photo: Bulls Väljaande andmete kasutamisel või tsiteerimisel palume viidata allikale. When using or quoting the data included in this issue, please indicate the source. SISUKORD CONTENTS SISUKORD Eessõna ...............................................................................................................................................4 Sissejuhatus R. Eamets .......................................................................................................................6 Majanduse üldtrendid ja teadmistepõhine majandus R. Müürsepp .................................................... 13 Ettevõtete eksporditegevuse ja tootlikkuse seosed: ülevaade teadustööde tulemustest P. Vahter .... 32 Uuenduslikkus väike- ja keskmise suurusega ettevõtetes A. Heinlo .................................................. 48 Transiidisektori areng Eestis P. Pukk, I. Dedegkajeva, A. Medkova................................................... 67 Noored versus parimas tööeas ja vanemaealised tööturul S. Krusell................................................. 95 Haridustaseme mõju edule tööturul M. Kazjulja, E. Saar.................................................................. 116 Kutsehariduse omandanute edukus tööturul K. Kabanen, K. Meres ................................................ 133 Tööjõu vananemine ja vanemaealise tööjõu siirdumine pensionile Y. Rosenblad............................ 150 CONTENTS Foreword ..............................................................................................................................................5 Introduction R. Eamets .........................................................................................................................9 General Economic Trends and Knowledge-Based Economy R. Müürsepp........................................ 25 The Relationship between Export Activities and Productivity: an Overview of Research Results P. Vahter............................................................................................................................................. 41 Innovation in Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises A. Heinlo............................................................ 60 The Development of the Transit Sector in Estonia P. Pukk, I. Dedegkajeva, A. Medkova ................. 84 Young People versus Prime-Age and Elderly People on the Labour Market S. Krusell ................... 109 The Impact of Education on Labour Market Success M. Kazjulja, E. Saar....................................... 128 The Success of People with Vocational Education on the Labour Market K. Kabanen, K. Meres.... 144 The Ageing Workforce and the Retirement of the Elderly from the Labour Market Y. Rosenblad .... 164 MUUTUV MAJANDUS JA TÖÖTURG CHANGES IN THE ECONOMY AND LABOUR MARKET 3 EESSÕNA FOREWORD Hea lugeja! Ühiskonnas toimuva lahtimõtestamiseks on mitu võimalust. Üks võimalus on teha järeldusi igapäevaelust, olles tööl, turul, tänaval või suheldes tuttavatega. Teine võimalus on kasutada statistiliste näitajate keelt, mis püüab olukorda kirjeldada kokkulepitud ja rahvusvaheliselt aktsepteeritud mõõdikute abil. Kogu ühiskonnas toimuva lahtimõtestamiseks on tõenäoliselt parim mõlemat võimalust kombineerida ja luua eespool nimetatud võimaluste vahel seoseid. Hoiad käes kogumikku „Muutuv majandus ja tööturg. Changes in the Economy and Labour Market“, mille autorid kirjeldavad tööturu ja majanduse muutusi statistiliste näitajate abil. Kindlasti sobib kogumik selleks, et võrrelda ja otsida kooskõla oma igapäevakogemuse ja näitajate vahel. Käsitletavad teemad on justkui mosaiik olulistest Eesti majandust ja tööturgu puudutavatest fookustest. Näitajate keeles on kirjeldatud ja seletatud tööturule sisenevate noorte ja sealt üsna pea lahkuvate vanemaealiste positsiooni. Põhjalikult on süvenetud hariduse ja edukuse seostesse ning kirjeldatud muutusi taasiseseisvunud Eesti algusaastatel salapärasuse looriga kaetud transiidi- sektoris. Märkimisväärselt on tähelepanu pööratud innovatsioonile, mis on Eesti majanduse tuleviku vundamendi loomisel väga suure tähtsusega, kuid samuti ekspordile ja selle seostele tootlikkusega. Tänan kõiki kogumiku tegijaid – autoreid, toimetajaid, tõlkijaid ja kujundajaid –, kelle ühise jõupingutuse tulemusel on väljaanne valminud. Head lugemist! Andres Oopkaup Statistikaameti peadirektor 4 MUUTUV MAJANDUS JA TÖÖTURG CHANGES IN THE ECONOMY AND LABOUR MARKET EESSÕNA FOREWORD Dear readers! There are several ways to analyse what is going on in the society. One option is to draw conclusions based on your everyday life, what you see at work or on the street, or what you hear from other people. Another option is to use the language of statistics which describes the social and economic situation based on predefined and internationally agreed indicators. For a thorough analysis, it is probably the best idea to combine the two options and find links between the information from these disparate sources. In this publication, called “Muutuv majandus ja tööturg. Changes in the Economy and Labour Market”, the authors describe economic and labour market trends using the language of statistics. Readers are welcome to compare and see whether the statistical indicators are in line with their everyday experience. The topics covered represent a mosaic of the main issues in the Estonian economy today. The language of indicators is used to describe the prospects and position of young people entering the labour market and elderly people who are approaching retirement age. There is a thorough analysis of the correlations between education and labour market success, and a discussion of the developments in the transit sector in Estonia. The other main topics are innovation, which is crucial for the future development of the Estonian economy, and export and its impact on productivity. I wish to thank all the people who contributed to this publication: the authors, editors, translators and graphic designers. This publication would not have been possible without their joint effort. Enjoy! Andres Oopkaup Director General of Statistics Estonia MUUTUV MAJANDUS JA TÖÖTURG CHANGES IN THE ECONOMY AND LABOUR MARKET 5 SISSEJUHATUS INTRODUCTION SISSEJUHATUS Raul Eamets Tartu Ülikool Kogumiku eesmärk on anda ülevaade mõnedest Eesti majanduse tendentsidest. Rõhk on eelkõige sellel, mis toimub majanduse struktuuriga ja kuidas toimib üks majanduse lipulaevu – transiidisektor. Ülevaade on antud ka Eesti ettevõtete innovaatilisusest ning ekspordi ja tootlikkuse seostest. Kogumiku teises osas on keskendutud tööturule. Vaatluse alla on võetud tööturunäitajad vanuse- rühmiti, kutsehariduse roll regiooniti, hariduse mõju Eesti elanike olukorrale tööturul võrdluses teiste Euroopa riikidega ja vananemisega seotud probleemid. Kui vaadata kogu maailma majandust, tuleb nentida, et kahtlemata elame 2014. aastal suures ebakindluses ja turbulentsuses. Geopoliitiline olukord Euroopas ja terves maailmas on oluliselt muutunud. Selle kogumiku ilmumise ajaks ei ole veel selge, millega lõppeb Ukraina kriis ja milliseks kujuneb Euroopa Liidu ja USA sanktsioonide mõju Euroopa ja maailma majandusele. Kuna Eesti majandus on avatud ja väike, mõjutavad maailma majanduses toimuvad sündmused meie majandust kahtlemata väga olulisel määral. Hea näide on 2014. aastal tehtud eri perioodide majandus- prognoosid. Kui kevadel räägiti 2,5% või isegi 3% majanduskasvust, siis sügiseks on saanud selgeks, et kui Eesti majanduskasv jääb aasta kokkuvõttes positiivseks, on isegi hästi läinud. Tööturg on osa majandusest ja üldiselt kehtib reegel, et kui majandusel läheb hästi, läheb hästi ka tööturul. See tähendab, et kui majandus kasvab, siis töötus väheneb, ja kui majandus langeb, siis töötus kasvab. Statistikaameti 2014. aasta andmete põhjal võib esmapilgul jääda mulje, et midagi on valesti. Eesti tööjõu-uuringu andmetel oli 2014. aasta II kvartali töötuse määr 6,9%, Majandus- ja Kommunikatsiooniministeerium aga prognoosib 2014. aasta majanduskasvuks ainult 0,5%. Kuidas on võimalik, et väga tagasihoidliku majanduskasvuga kaasneb suhteliselt madal töötuse määr? Tööjõu-uuringu andmetel oli II kvartalis hinnanguliselt 47 000 töötut, I kvartaliga võrreldes 10 000 ja 2013. aasta II kvartaliga võrreldes 8000 võrra vähem. Töötuse määr oli madalam nii 2014. aasta I kvartali kui ka 2013. aasta II kvartaliga võrreldes (töötuse määr oli neis kvartalites vastavalt 8,5% ja 8,0%). Tööga hõivatuid oli 2014. aasta II kvartalis hinnanguliselt 624 000, aasta I kvartaliga võrreldes 19 000 võrra enam, kuid 2013. aasta sama kvartaliga võrreldes 8000 võrra vähem. Nii hõive- kui ka
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