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San Francisco - CA Office Market Report San Francisco - CA PREPARED BY Cameron Love Senior Vice President San Francisco Office OFFICE MARKET REPORT Market Key Statistics 2 Leasing 3 Rent 8 Construction 11 Under Construction Properties 13 Sales 15 Sales Past 12 Months 17 Economy 19 Market Submarkets 22 Supply & Demand Trends 29 Rent & Vacancy 31 Sale Trends 33 2/3/2020 Copyrighted report licensed to Hughes Marino - 572437. Overview San Francisco Office 12 Mo Deliveries in SF 12 Mo Net Absorption in SF Vacancy Rate 12 Mo Rent Growth 2.7 M 2.5 M 6.1% 3.5% The tech sector has driven San Francisco’s office market market will deliver fully preleased to large tech tenants, to new heights. Leasing activity remains strong as setting the stage for another year of robust net mature tech giants with strong balance sheets and well- absorption in 2020. capitalized start-ups alike compete for the city’s premier office buildings. Large-sized blocks of space have Demand is holding up, and landlords are pushing rents become increasingly rare, and development opportunities higher in response. However, the pace of rent growth are limited. slowed dramatically in 2019 and is now subdued compared to the double-digit annual gains achieved Net absorption soared to a record high in 2018 and earlier in the economic expansion. That said, rent growth remained elevated in 2019, boosted by tenants taking in San Francisco over the past year still outpaces the occupancy in new skyscrapers surrounding the Transbay national average. transit center. Despite multiple building completions over the past several years, demand has outweighed supply Despite slowing rent growth, San Francisco clearly growth, sending vacancy in the metro to expansion era remains a premier market for office investment. Sales lows at the close of 2019. Supply growth in 2020 will be volume picked up in 2019, as the market continued to headlined by the Mission Bay headquarters of Uber, and attract institutional investment, and several large owner- Facebook's newest outposts at Burlingame Point, and users were active. Asset pricing continues to rise in Menlo Gateway II. The majority of new inventory in the conjunction with rent potential. KEY INDICATORS Net Absorption Under Current Quarter RBA Vacancy Rate Market Rent Availability Rate Deliveries SF SF Construction 4 & 5 Star 91,724,431 5.9% $77.40 10.2% (202,648) 0 6,182,165 3 Star 52,674,138 6.0% $65.30 9.8% (284,840) 0 924,232 1 & 2 Star 32,737,399 6.6% $55.41 8.6% (24,241) 0 9,500 Market 177,135,968 6.1% $69.96 9.8% (511,729) 0 7,115,897 Historical Forecast Annual Trends 12 Month Peak When Trough When Average Average Vacancy Change (YOY) 0% 9.2% 7.5% 16.2% 2003 Q2 1.3% 2000 Q2 Net Absorption SF 2.5 M 1,298,377 923,069 7,134,980 2000 Q1 (9,611,416) 2001 Q3 Deliveries SF 2.7 M 1,846,894 2,201,489 6,020,069 2001 Q4 55,198 2006 Q2 Rent Growth 3.5% 4.7% 0.4% 30.6% 2000 Q3 -33.0% 2001 Q4 Sales Volume $8.2 B $3.4B N/A $9.2B 2007 Q3 $295.6M 2002 Q2 2/3/2020 Copyrighted report licensed to Hughes Marino - 572437. Page 2 Leasing San Francisco Office San Francisco's office market is thriving in the mature system, and BART do not extend South to these stages of a tech-led economic expansion. Absorption submarkets. However, demand is rising specifically near soared to record levels in 2018, and remained strong in CalTrain stations in the Peninsula, which provide service 2019, totaling 3 million SF. Building developments are to the South of Market area of San Francisco. Despite reaching completion, fully preleased. Despite an their higher than average vacancy rates, rent growth in abundance of new inventory, tenant demand continues to these submarkets remains strong, as demand for place downward pressure on vacancy, which has fallen affordable and transit-friendly real estate located to an expansion-era low of just 6.1%. between San Francisco and San Jose is rising. Absent substantial supply growth earlier in the expansion The tightest submarkets in San Francisco, SoMa, period, vacancy declined rapidly, from a recession-era Mission Bay and MidMarket are extremely popular with peak of 13% in 2010, to 6% by mid-2015. However, as tech tenants. new development helped satisfy demand, and rising rental costs prompted some tenant out-flow, market Elevated levels of available sublease space suggest that fundamentals have remained fairly stable since 2015. underlying demand may be slightly weaker than the Vacancy hovered between 6% and 7% for five years, market's headline vacancy rates suggests. More than 5 finally dipping below 6% at 2019's year-end. million SF of sublease space is currently listed as available, which equates to nearly 3% of market In comparison, vacancy at the peak of the dot com inventory. expansion period in 2000 fell below 2%. The duration of the current expansion period has provided more time for Several tenants, including Delta Dental, Blue Shield, developers to respond to tenant demand. This time Aecom, and most recently, Square and Credit Karma around, a larger share of companies leasing space have have moved to Oakland in search of more affordable established profitable business operations. However, office space in the Bay Area. Furthermore, several some tenant risk remains in the market. Several Fortune 500 firms with longstanding roots in San technology firms boasting quickly rising revenue streams Francisco are also moving out of town, to parts of the that have expanded aggressively in San Francisco, country where the cost of doing business is much lower. remain unprofitable as of yet. Engineering and construction firm Bechtel Group is moving to Virginia, while McKesson and Core-Mark are Due to the market's strong demand, availability is scarce relocating to Texas. Yet, fundamentals in San Francisco for large blocks of space, and for creative office spaces remain extremely strong. Tech companies and co- in particular. Tech companies are competing for the working providers are expanding into the buildings market’s best located and outfitted buildings in order to vacated by these more traditional, cost-sensitive attract employees, but many second generation space tenants. options in less prestigious buildings remain available for mid-sized and smaller tenants. However, San Francisco has become the most expensive market in the country for office space, and Only a few submarkets in the entire metro, primarily average rents in the East Bay are roughly 40% below located outside of the city, maintain a vacancy rate those in San Francisco—a difference that widened in the above 10%. These mid-peninsula suburban submarkets economic expansion cycle. As San Francisco tenants including San Mateo and Burlingame, lack the population face steep rent hikes upon lease expirations, relocations density, amenities, and extensive food and entertainment to the East Bay and out of California could dampen options found in the city of San Francisco. Transportation demand. can also be a challenge, as San Francisco's MUNI bus 2/3/2020 Copyrighted report licensed to Hughes Marino - 572437. Page 3 Leasing San Francisco Office NET ABSORPTION, NET DELIVERIES & VACANCY VACANCY RATE 2/3/2020 Copyrighted report licensed to Hughes Marino - 572437. Page 4 Leasing San Francisco Office AVAILABILITY RATE 2/3/2020 Copyrighted report licensed to Hughes Marino - 572437. Page 5 Leasing San Francisco Office 12 MONTH NET ABSORPTION SF IN SELECTED BUILDINGS Net Absorption SF Building Name/Address Submarket Bldg SF Vacant SF 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr 12 Month The Exchange on Sixteenth Mission Bay/China B… 750,370 12,289 0 0 0 0 738,081 Park Tower At Transbay South Financial District 764,700 7,341 0 0 0 0 474,914 One Market Plaza South Financial District 419,371 7,667 0 0 0 0 301,790 Merck Campus South San Francisco 300,930 0 0 0 0 0 300,930 Alexandria Technology Campus South San Francisco 211,405 0 0 0 0 0 211,405 Van Ness & Geary Medical Offic… Van Ness/Chinatown 234,000 38,066 0 0 0 0 195,934 Bay Meadows San Mateo 189,000 0 0 0 0 0 189,000 Rincon Center South Financial District 279,354 85,514 0 0 0 0 169,335 Genentech South Campus South San Francisco 160,000 0 0 0 0 0 160,000 Charles Schwab Bldg South Financial District 373,500 0 0 0 0 0 140,079 333 Bush St Financial District 542,878 52,049 0 0 0 0 125,001 970 San Mateo 120,968 0 0 0 0 0 120,968 930 San Mateo 120,968 0 0 0 0 0 120,968 303 2nd St Rincon/South Beach 740,047 8,619 61,179 0 0 0 112,219 One Tehama South Financial District 98,566 0 0 0 0 0 98,566 657 Mission St South Financial District 105,389 0 98,553 0 0 0 98,553 1455 Market MidMarket 1,034,977 52,449 29,186 0 0 0 95,242 Subtotal Primary Competitors 6,446,423 263,994 188,918 0 0 0 3,652,985 Remaining San Francisco Market 170,689,545 10,493,552 (700,647) 0 0 0 (1,140,923) Total San Francisco Market 177,135,968 10,757,546 (511,729) 0 0 0 2,512,062 2/3/2020 Copyrighted report licensed to Hughes Marino - 572437. Page 6 Leasing San Francisco Office TOP OFFICE LEASES PAST 12 MONTHS Building Name/Address Submarket Leased SF Qtr Tenant Name Tenant Rep Company Leasing Rep Company Facebook @ Menlo Park Menlo Park 449,450 Q4 19 Facebook - Facebook, Inc.
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