Exhibit 18 Ro-6-151

EXHIBIT 18 RO-6-151

1921 University Ave. ▪ Berkeley, CA 94704 ▪ Phone 510-629-4930 ▪ Fax 510-550-2639

12 April 2018

Dan Silver, Executive Director Endangered Habitats League 8424 Santa Monica Blvd., Suite A 592 Los Angeles, CA 90069-4267

Subject: Fire risk impacts of Otay Ranch Village 14 and Planning Areas 16/19 Project

Dear Mr. Silver,

At your request I have reviewed the Fire Protection Plan (FPP) for the planned Otay Ranch Village 14 and Planning Areas 16/19 Project and analyzed potential fire/life safety impacts of this planned development.

Santa Ana winds

Santa Ana winds (or Santa Anas for short) present major fire/life safety concerns for the Otay Ranch Village 14 and Planning Areas 16/19 Project. Santa Anas are hot and dry winds that blow through Southern California each year, usually between the months of October and April. Santa Anas occur when high pressure forms in the Great Basin (Western Utah, much of Nevada, and the Eastern border of California) with lower pressure off the coast of Southern California. This pressure gradient drives airflow toward the Pacific Ocean.

As air travels West from the Great Basin, orographic lift dries the air as it rises in elevation over mountain ranges. As air descends from high elevations in the Sierra Nevada, its temperature rises dramatically (~5 °F per 1000 ft decrease in elevation). A subsequent drop in relative humidity accompanies this rise in temperature. This drying/heating phenomenon is known as a katabatic wind. Relative humidity in Southern California during Santa Anas is often 10% or lower. Santa Ana winds typically blow from the Northeast toward the Southwest. Sustained Santa Ana winds of 40+ mph with gusts of 60+ mph are not uncommon in Southern California.

The seasonality of Santa Anas presents a severe fire problem in Southern California which typically sees little rain between May and November. This means that October, November, and December Santa Anas occur after a 6+ month drought when herbaceous surface fuels are completely cured and live woody fuel moisture (i.e., water in shrub-like vegetation) is at yearly lows. Much of the existing vegetation in Southern California is mixed chaparral which is characterized by rapid rates of fire spread and is highly conducive to spotting due to large-scale ember generation.

Given that hot dry Santa Anas occur in part of California that is vegetated by highly flammable chaparral

1 at a time of year when fuel moisture content is at annual lows, it is not surprising that dozens of large loss fires have occurred in Southern California under Santa Ana winds. Table 1 provides a partial list of damaging Southern California fires that were driven by Santa Ana winds. As will be shown later, the Harris Fire listed in Table 1 burned the parcels where the Otay Ranch Village 14 and Planning Areas 16/19 development is planned.

Table 1. Partial list of fires damaging fires occurring under Santa Anas in Southern California. Name Date County Acres Structures Deaths Bel Air November 1961 Los Angeles 6,000 484 0 Laguna September 1970 San Diego 175,000 382 8 Green Meadow October 1993 Ventura 44,000 53 0 Laguna October 1993 Orange 14,000 441 0 Cedar October 2003 San Diego 273,000 2,820 15 Simi October 2003 Ventura 108,000 37 0 Esperanza October 2006 Riverside 41,000 34 5 Harris October 2007 San Diego 90,000 548 8 Witch October 2007 San Diego 198,000 1,650 2 Sayre November 2008 Los Angeles 11,000 604 0 Poinsettia May 2014 San Diego 600 28 1 Lilac December 2017 San Diego 4,100 157 0 Thomas December 2017 Ventura/SB 282,000 1,063 1

Assessment of wildland fire threat/hazard/risk based on existing maps

Prior to examining the specific characteristics of the planned development that may be germane to fire/life safety considerations, it is useful to review existing assessments of landscape-scale fire threat, hazard, or risk. Three specific maps are considered here:

1. Fire Hazard Severity Zone (FHSZ) map. In California, for the purposes of promulgating building regulations, land is categorized into one of three Fire Hazard Severity Zones: moderate, high, or very high. As acknowledged in the FPP, all project parcels fall within Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zones.

2. FRAP Fire Threat Map. CAL FIRE’s Fire Resource Assessment Program (FRAP) also published a Fire Threat Map that is a rating of wildland fire threat based on the combination of potential fire behavior and expected fire frequency. Fire threat is categorized as either moderate, high, very high, or extreme. As shown in Figure 1, the project footprint and most adjacent areas are classified as “very high” with localized pockets of “extreme”.

3. CPUC Fire Risk Map. In 2017-2018, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) adopted a fire risk map that quantifies the potential impact to people and improved property associated with a fire starting at a particular location. This three-tiered map classifies areas as Tier 1 (moderate), Tier 2 (elevated), or Tier 3 (extreme). Figure 2 shows project parcels overlaid on this CPUC fire risk map. It is seen that project parcels fall in either the “extreme” or “elevated” classifications.

In summary, previous wildland fire hazard/threat/risk mapping efforts have classified the areas planned for the Otay Ranch Village 14 and Planning Areas 16/19 Development among the highest wildland fire hazards/threats/risks in California.

Figure 1. Project parcels overlaid on FRAP Fire Threat Map.

Figure 2. Project parcels overlaid on CPUC Fire Threat map.

3 Fire weather

In the project area, the primary driver of risk from a fire weather perspective is Santa Ana wind events which are normally characterized by an offshore flow out of the Northeast. Strong winds (> 40 mph), high temperatures (> 90 °F), and low relative humidity (< 10%) are possible. Of these factors, wind speed is the most critical factor affecting fire behavior and therefore it is analyzed more closely here.

The FPP used 40 mph winds as an upper limit on sustained wind speed and 50 mph for an upper limit on guest wind speed, stating “The use of 50 mph winds in modeling efforts is intended to represent wind gusts rather than sustained maximum wind speeds (30-40 mph).” However, using conventional gust factors to relate 10-minute average wind speed to 3 second gust, a 40 mph 10-minute average wind speed would typically show gusts closer to 60 mph than 50 mph.

The FPP used the San Miguel Remote Automated Weather Station (RAWS) approximately 4 miles west of the project site to develop estimates for wind speed during Santa Ana events. San Miguel RAWS is sited in a relatively flat area where wind speeds are likely to be considerably lower than ridge-top wind speeds near the project site. Ridge top wind speeds near the project site are better characterized by wind speeds measured at Otay Mountain RAWS approximately 7 miles south/southeast of the project parcels. In the May 2014 Santa Ana event, peak wind gusts measured at San Miguel RAWS were 30 mph, whereas at Otay Mountain RAWS they were 58 mph.

Fuels

When assessing how current fuel conditions compare to potential future fuel conditions, it is important to note that most of the project footprint and surrounding areas has burned twice in the last 15 years. The Mine/Otay Fire (see Figure 3a) burned approximately 46,000 acres in 2003 and the Harris Fire (Figure 3b) burned approximately 90,000 acres in 2007. The FPP correctly notes that “… vegetation on the property is still in early stages of recovery toward a climax species composition.” Essentially, current fuel conditions are not representative of fuel conditions after 30+ years of regrowth in the absence of fire or other disturbances. Therefore, evaluation of climax fuel conditions is critical to a proper fire safety analysis.

Figure 4a below is a reproduction of Figure 4 from the FPP. This vegetation map provides species composition information that is used in the FPP to estimate climax fuel conditions for fire behavior modeling purposes. As can be seen from Figure 4a, the FPP only maps fuels within project parcels. However, when assessing potential fire/life safety impacts of a planned development, it is also important to assess fuels adjacent to the project footprint because fires ignited within the project footprint may spread into adjacent wildland or wildland urban interface areas. For that reason, Figure 4b shows a simplified vegetation map that uses Wildlife Habitat Relationships (WHR) published by FRAP1 to map vegetation in and adjacent to project parcels.

The vegetation map in Figure 4b will be used later in the fire behavior modeling section of this letter. However, it is noted here that the red areas in Figure 4b are mapped as mixed chaparral which, in its climax condition, is conducive to rapid fire spread and long range ( > 1 mile) spotting. Chaparral was a primary fuel for most of the damaging fires listed in Table 1. The orange areas in Figure 4b are mapped as coastal scrub, which generally has lower fuel loads than chaparral but can also support rapid fire spread.

1 http://frap.fire.ca.gov/data/frapgisdata-sw-fveg_download

(a)

(b) Figure 3. Recent large fires in the vicinity of the project area. (a) 2003 Mine/Otay Fire. (b) 2007 Harris Fire.

(a)

(b) Figure 4. Vegetation in and around project site. (a) Figure 4 from FPP. (b) FVEG WHR type.

6 Topography

Areas adjacent to the project footprint are characterized by complex terrain ranging in elevation from approximately 500 ft to 1,900 ft above sea level. Terrain surrounding the project area is visualized in Figure 5a with a hybrid digital elevation model / hillshade raster2 and in Figure 5b with a slope map. Peak slope steepness in the areas adjacent to the project parcels is approximately 40 degrees (84%). Since Figure 5b gives slope in degrees but the FPP discusses slope in percent, the conversion of slope in degrees to slope in percent is given in Table 2.

The FPP states “Although slopes can range from 5% up to 40% within the Study Area, the Proposed Project’s average slope to approximately 300 feet outside the perimeter of the Development Footprint is approximately 19.5%.” More relevant than slope in the project footprint is slope in areas adjacent to the project footprint where a fire ignited within the project footprint would spread to. Figure 6 shows areas near the project footprint where slope exceeds 40%. While most of the project parcels are in areas where slope is < 40%, much of the surrounding country is characterized by steep hills with slopes in excess of 40%.

The significance of this is twofold:

1) Fires spread faster upslope than on flat ground, and 2) Firefighting efforts (whether with hand crews or mechanical equipment) are hindered by steep slopes.

By analyzing slope only within and immediately adjacent to the project parcels, the FPP understates the potential role that the steepness of the surrounding terrain has on fire spread and control.

Table 2. Conversion of slope in degrees to percent. Slope Slope (°) (%) 5 8.7 10 17.6 15 26.8 20 36.4 25 46.6 30 57.7 35 70.0 40 83.9 45 100.0

2 A digital elevation model (DEM) is a gridded representation of terrain elevation. A hillshade raster simulates the effects of the sun’s rays by drawing shadows on a map that would be cast by terrain features.

(a)

(b) Figure 5. Topography near project area. (a) Hybrid digital elevation model / hillshade. (b) Slope.

Figure 6. Areas where slope exceeds 40%.

9 Fire behavior

Section 4 and Appendix E of the FPP describe fire modeling that was conducted as part of the Draft Environmental Impact Report. The FPP uses this fire modeling to provide estimated spread rates and flame lengths under various weather conditions that are in turn used to assess the efficacy of planned fuel management zones and other fire protection features. The primary inputs that affect fire modeling are fuel bed type (called a fire behavior fuel model or fuel model for short), fuel moisture content (live and dead), slope, and wind speed.

As explained previously, the project site and most of the adjacent areas have burned twice in the last 15 years and current fuel conditions are not representative of climax conditions after regrowth is complete. However, climax fuel conditions can be estimated from WHR types shown previously in Figure 4b by “crosswalking” each WHR type to a fuel model. From Figure 4b, most of the WHR types in the project footprint and adjacent areas as coastal scrub with smaller amounts of mixed chaparral and grassland. In climax conditions, these WHR types can reasonably crosswalked to fire behavior fuel models as shown in Table 3:

Table 3. Fuel models associated with WHR type under climax conditions WHR Type Climax fuel model Annual grassland 1 – Short grass Coastal scrub SCAL18 – Sage/buckwheat Mixed chaparral SH5/145 – High load dry climate shrub

As a check on the fire behavior modeling presented in the FPP, BehavePlus was used here to estimate spread rate, flame length, and spotting distance over a range of wind speed and slope for the following fixed/assumed inputs:

 1-hour dead fuel moisture content: 2%  10-hour dead fuel moisture content: 3%  100-hour dead fuel moisture content: 4%  Live herbaceous fuel moisture content: 30%  Live woody fuel moisture content: 60%  Ridge to valley elevation difference: 0 ft  Mid-flame wind speed calculated from 20-ft wind speed and calculated wind adjustment factor  Slope: Flat, 20°, 40°  Wind speed: 40 mph, 50 mph, 60 mph

A range of wind speeds and slopes were analyzed to quantify potential fire behavior in the areas adjacent to the project footprint because one of the biggest fire safety impacts of this project is a fire igniting within the project footprint and spreading to adjacent areas. Fire modeling presented in the FPP appears to focus only on fire behavior in areas immediately adjacent to project parcels, as opposed to undeveloped areas > ¼ mi from the project footprint (i.e., those areas to which a fire ignited within the project footprint could spread to). Based on this analysis, it is concluded the FPP underestimates potential fire behavior in the areas adjacent to the project parcels. For example, the FPP shows flame lengths of 31 ft – 34 ft in fuel model SCAL18, whereas the current results show flame lengths of 38 ft to 49 ft.

10 Increase in ignition probability

Most wildland fires are caused by humans as opposed to natural causes such as lightning. Common anthropogenic causes of fire include arson/incendiary, equipment use, debris burning, smoking, vehicles, fireworks, electricity, and outdoor cooking (barbecuing). Structure fires sometimes spread and initiate wildland fires. For these reasons, it should be apparent that the presence of development in the wildland urban interface – which adds roads, structures, vehicles, and people to previously undeveloped areas – results in increased probability of fire starts.

While this conclusion is common sense, multiple scientific studies have concluded the same. A study that analyzed 27 years of data in Canada3 concluded “Fire ignition densities decreased exponentially as distance to road or populated place increased, and largest ignition trends occurred closest to both variables.” Similarly, a 2007 study entitled “Human Influence on California Fire Regimes”4 stated:

We found highly significant relationships between humans and fire on the contemporary landscape, and our models explained fire frequency (R2 = 0.72) better than area burned (R2 = 0.50). Population density, intermix WUI, and distance to WUI explained the most variability in fire frequency, suggesting that the spatial pattern of development may be an important variable to consider when estimating fire risk.

For the above reasons, the planned Otay Ranch Village 14 and Planning Areas 16/19 development greatly increases the probability of ignition occurring within its footprint, which is currently mostly undeveloped land. The FPP acknowledges “The Proposed Project would introduce potential ignition sources, particularly more people in the area.” This increased ignition probability introduced by the subject development increases fire risk for homes in the Eastern part of Chula Vista, particularly those East of Hunte Parkway, because a fire ignited within the project footprint under Santa Ana winds would spread directly toward Chula Vista.

Potential impacts to nearby communities

Under Santa Ana winds, a fire ignited within the project footprint would spread toward population centers to the Southwest such as the Eastern part of Chula Vista. During such fires, most structure losses occur in Widland Urban Interface (WUI) areas. Figure 7 shows the project parcels relative to WUI areas. Based on fire modeling described earlier, fires burning through shrub and chaparral vegetation between the project footprint and WUI areas to the Southwest would spread at rates of > 3 mph with flame lengths > 40 ft and spotting distances of 2+ miles.

The FPP does not adequately address adjacent communities’ increased risk from fire that will be created by the Otay Ranch Village 14 and Planning Areas 16/19 Development. Instead, the DEIR and FPP conclude that the project would mitigate any increase in ignition sources with irrigated areas and fuel modification zones and that the project, due to these irrigated areas and fuel modification zones, would improve fire safety in the project area and adjacent communities. I do not agree with this conclusion because, for example, a fire ignited in Planning Areas 16/19 under Santa Ana winds would spread Southwest toward population centers through complex steep terrain vegetated by chaparral and coastal scrub at rates of several mph with spotting distances > 1 mile, largely unimpeded by fuel modification zones, irrigated areas, etc. Thus, the increase in ignition probability associated with the project has a more significant negative impact

3 Gralewicz, N.J., Nelson, T.A., Wulder, M.A., “Spatial and temporal patterns of wildfire ignitions in Canada from 1980 to 2006,” International Journal of Wildland Fire 21: 230-242 (2012). 4 Syphard, A.D., Radeloff, V.C., Keeley, J.E., Hawbaker, T.J., Clayton, M.K., Stewart, S.I., and Hammer, R.B., “Human influence on California fire regimes,” Ecological Applications 17 1388–1402 (2007).

11 on adjacent communities’ risk from fire when compared with any potential positive fire risk impacts associated with the project’s fuels modification or irrigation.

Figure 7. Project parcels relative to Wildland Urban Interface areas.

Potential impacts to evacuating occupants

Under high winds and rapidly spreading fires, occupants can become trapped in vehicles while evacuating. Proctor Valley Road is the primary evacuation route for Otay Ranch Village 14 and Planning Areas 16/19. As shown in Figure 8, it runs approximately 5.5 miles from Jamul (north) to Chula Vista (south). Proctor Valley Road runs approximately Northeast / Southwest and is therefore almost perfectly aligned with the wind direction under Santa Ana wind conditions (recall that Santa Anas blow from the Northeast toward the Southwest). Consequently, a fire traveling from Jamul toward the project footprint from the Northeast, or starting within the North part of the project footprint, may block large stretches of Proctor Valley Road simultaneously. This is not addressed in the FPP or DEIR’s evacuation plan.

Figure 8. Proctor Valley Road relative to project parcels.

Summary and concluding remarks

This letter and the analysis described herein have identified several deficiencies with the Draft Environmental Impact and Fire Protection Plan for the planned Otay Ranch Village 14 and Planning Areas 16/19 Development. Actual fire hazard to the project is higher than described due to factors including higher wind speeds, surrounding steep topography, and anticipated vegetation succession. The FPP also does not adequately address the increase in fire risk to adjacent communities introduced by this project due to the increased ignition probability that it presents. Collectively due to these deficiencies, the DEIR and FPP also do not address the possibility that the development’s primary evacuation route, Proctor Valley Road, becomes blocked due to its alignment with wind direction under Santa Ana conditions.

Sincerely,

Christopher W. Lautenberger, PhD, PE

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