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Syria Crisis Common Context Analysis Update

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Syria Crisis Common Context Analysis Update UNHCR/B.Sokol Syria Crisis Common Context Analysis Update Report commissioned by the IASC Inter-Agency Humanitarian Evaluations Steering Group as part of the Syria Coordinated Accountability and Lessons Learning Initiative Hugo Slim, Lorenzo Trombetta and Lewis Sida August 2015 © United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, New York 2015 United Nations Headquarters New York, NY 10017 Disclaimer The contents and conclusions of this report reflect those of the authors and not those of the members of the Management Group, the agencies composing the Steering Group or the United Nations. The designations in this publication do not imply an opinion on legal status of any country or territory, or of its authorities, or the delimitation of frontiers. Management Management Group: Francesca Bonino, ALNAP; Machiel Salomons, UNHCR; Koorosh Raffii, UNICEF; Elise Benoit, WFP. Chair of the Management Group and Project Manager: Maria Agnese Giordano, OCHA. Commissioner This study was commissioned by the Inter-Agency Humanitarian Evaluations Steering Group. Members of the Steering Group are ALNAP, FAO, IFRC, OCHA, UNHCR, UNICEF, WFP, WHO and World Vision International. About the authors This update was carried out by Hugo Slim, Lorenzo Trombetta and Lewis Sida. Hugo Slim is a leading scholar in humanitarian studies with a strong focus on the ethics of war, humanitarian practice and human rights. Dr. Slim is currently leading research on Humanitarian Ethics at the Institute of Ethics, Law and Armed Conflict at the University of Oxford. He combines strong academic rigour with well-grounded experience in operational settings. Lewis Sida has worked as an independent consultant in humanitarian policy, practice and evaluation, for donors, UN agencies, the Red Cross and Crescent Movement and international NGOs in a wide range of contexts, including Syria, Lebanon and Jordan. Before becoming an independent humanitarian consultant, Mr. Sida was the Emergencies Director for Save the Children and was previously the Head of Emergencies for Christian Aid. He has published numerous articles on humanitarian issues. Lorenzo Trombetta is a Beirut-based scholar and journalist specialized in Syria and Lebanon. Dr. Trombetta has authored two books on contemporary Syria, written several academic papers and contributed to various international conferences and workshops on Syria. Dr. Trombetta also provides advice to parliamentary commissions and governmental panels. He works as Middle Eastern correspondent for the Italian news agency Ansa and the Italian review of geopolitics LiMEs. Dr. Trombetta is fluent in Arabic. Suggested citation: Slim, H., Sida, L. and Trombetta, L. (2015) Syria Crisis Common Context Analysis. Update. Co-ordinated Accountability and Lessons Learning (CALL) Initiative. IASC Inter-Agency Humanitarian Evaluations Steering Group, New York, September 2015. This report should be read in conjunction with the Syria Crisis Common Context Analysis, June 2014. The full report is accessible from: www.syrialearning.org/resource/12718 i Contents Acronyms and abbreviations ......................................................................................................................................... iv Preface ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................................................. 2 Part one - Political developments ................................................................................................................................ 3 The situation in the summer of 2015 ................................................................................................................... 3 A shift in United Nations policy and international attitudes ...................................................................... 4 From Brahimi to de Mistura ...................................................................................................................................... 4 Reactions to the new United Nations approach ............................................................................................ 5 The Russian initiative ................................................................................................................................................... 6 The United States strategy ....................................................................................................................................... 7 The new threat posed by ISIL ................................................................................................................................. 8 The regional context ........................................................................................................................................................ 10 The supranational dimension of ISIL ................................................................................................................ 10 ISIL advance has been slowed but continues ............................................................................................. 10 Saudi Arabia and Iran ............................................................................................................................................... 12 Turkish and Israeli interests ................................................................................................................................... 13 The national context ........................................................................................................................................................ 14 Government of Syria .................................................................................................................................................. 14 The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant ........................................................................................................ 16 Armed and political oppositions ........................................................................................................................... 17 The Syrian-Kurdish posture ................................................................................................................................... 18 Truces and local agreements ............................................................................................................................... 18 Civil society survives ................................................................................................................................................. 19 Part two - Humanitarian developments ................................................................................................................. 20 The impact of conflict ................................................................................................................................................ 20 Violent death and injury ..................................................................................................................................... 20 Deepening poverty ............................................................................................................................................... 20 Persistent pattern of violations ....................................................................................................................... 20 Illegal conduct of war ........................................................................................................................................... 21 Siege ............................................................................................................................................................................ 21 Forced displacement ........................................................................................................................................... 22 ISIL practices ........................................................................................................................................................... 22 Humanitarian needs and challenges ................................................................................................................ 22 Needs in Syria ......................................................................................................................................................... 23 Needs in neighbouring countries, refugees ............................................................................................. 24 Organization of the response .......................................................................................................................... 27 Remote management .......................................................................................................................................... 30 Cash transfer ........................................................................................................................................................... 31 Resilience programming .................................................................................................................................... 32 Conclusion ...........................................................................................................................................................................
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