Quarterly Update on Conflict and Diplomacy Author(s): Michele K. Esposito Source: Journal of Palestine Studies, Vol. 36, No. 1 (Autumn 2006), pp. 114-147 Published by: University of California Press on behalf of the Institute for Palestine Studies Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1525/jps.2006.36.1.114 . Accessed: 25/03/2015 17:15 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp . JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. University of California Press and Institute for Palestine Studies are collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Journal of Palestine Studies. http://www.jstor.org This content downloaded from 66.134.128.11 on Wed, 25 Mar 2015 17:15:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions QUARTERLY UPDATE ON CONFLICT AND DIPLOMACY 16 MAY–15 AUGUST 2006 COMPILED BY MICHELE K. ESPOSITO The Quarterly Update is a summary of bilateral, multilateral, regional, and international events affecting the Palestinians and the future of the peace process. THE PALESTINIAN-ISRAELI CONFLICT for goods and persons almost entirely closed even as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) con- This quarter was marked by Israel’s rein- tinued the air strikes and shelling of Gaza sertion of ground troops into Gaza with Op- under Operation Southern Arrow (begun on eration Summer Rains (launched on 6/28, 4/4; see Quarterly Update in JPS 140) to halt 9 mos. after its unilateral disengagement), Palestinian rocket fire (in a ratio of 10 IDF followed by its war on Lebanon with Op- strikes to 1 rocket attack). The IDF also con- eration Change of Direction (launched on tinued to separate the n. and s. West Bank by 7/13). The two operations inflicted a heavy closing (since 4/12) the Zatara checkpoint toll on Gaza and widespread devastation s. of Nablus and severely to restrict move- on Lebanon, but by the end of the quarter ment into and out of the n. Jordan Valley. both operations were seen as having failed As of 5/15, at least 4,386 Palestinians (in- to achieve Israel’s military objectives, even cluding 46 Israeli Arabs and 17 unidentified while undermining the government of newly Arab cross-border infiltrators), 1,017 Israelis elected Israeli PM Ehud Olmert, forcing him (including 311 IDF soldiers and security per- to shelve (most likely permanently) his con- sonnel, 206 settlers, 500 civilians), and 57 vergence plan for unilateral declaration of foreign nationals (including 2 British suicide Israel’s borders by 2010 (see Quarterly Up- bombers) had been killed since the start of date in JPS 140). At the end of the quarter, the al-Aqsa intifada on 9/28/00. Gaza’s Operation Summer Rains continued, while a shaky truce was in place in Lebanon, Ongoing Positioning after Elections where some 10,000 regular Israeli forces On the diplomatic front, Israel’s new remained in the south, cheek-to-jowl with Olmert government continued to pursue Hizballah fighters. its unilateral convergence plan for a lim- As the quarter opened, Israel and the ited removal of isolated settlements in the U.S. continued their suspension of all con- West Bank, reinforcement of settlements tacts with the Hamas-controlled Palestinian around Jerusalem and along the Green Line, Authority (PA) and to block all but humani- construction of the separation wall, and dec- tarian aid to the territories until Hamas met laration of Israel’s borders by 2010, while PA their demands (endorsed by the Quartet on Pres. Mahmud Abbas and PM Ismail Haniyeh 1/30/06) to recognize Israel, renounce vio- both pushed for an immediate resumption lence, and adhere to previous agreements. of final status negotiations with Israel. (Israel also demanded that Hamas annul its As noted in last quarter’s update, Abbas charter and that the new PA government and elements of Fatah were willing to work dismantle all Palestinian militant groups be- with Israel and the U.S. to strengthen Ab- fore contacts could resume.) Palestinians in bas’s roles as elected PA pres. and head of the West Bank and Gaza continued to suffer the PLO Executive Committee (PLOEC) to severe economic hardship due to the U.S.- enable him to bypass the Hamas-controlled and Israeli-led economic sanctions result- PA structures under Haniyeh’s authority. By ing inter alia in nonpayment of government 5/19, Abbas and Israel reportedly were in workers’ salaries for 2 mos. (see Quarterly active consultations through Abbas’s negoti- Update in JPS 140). An Israeli blockade of ations adviser Saeb Erakat and Israel’s Justice Gaza remained in place, with all crossings M Haim Ramon, as well as unofficial envoys Journal of Palestine Studies Vol. XXXVI, No. 1 (Autumn 2006), pp. 114–147, ISSN 0377-919X, electronic ISSN 1533-8614. C 2006 by the Institute for Palestine Studies. All rights reserved. Please direct all requests for permission to photocopy or reproduce article content through the University of California Press’s Rights and Permissions website, at http://www.ucpress.edu/journals/rights.htm. This content downloaded from 66.134.128.11 on Wed, 25 Mar 2015 17:15:23 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions QUARTERLY UPDATE ON CONFLICT AND DIPLOMACY 115 in Europe, on how to achieve this. In his Olmert Meets with Bush speech to the World Economic Forum (WEF) The main item on the agenda of Olmert’s in Cairo on 5/21, Abbas reiterated his call for upcoming first meeting (as prime minister) Israel to resume talks directly with him as with U.S. Pres. George W. Bush was his con- head of the PLOEC, arguing that negotiations vergence plan (renamed by advisers on the were under the PLO purview and stressing eve of the visit the “realignment plan,” be- that Haniyeh (who had not been invited to lieved to sound more benign in English) for the WEF) had agreed to this (see Quarterly which he was to seek U.S. endorsement. Update in JPS 140). On the sidelines of the Well in advance of the 5/23 meeting, the WEF, Abbas met with Israeli Vice PM and U.S., whose unquestioning support of Tel FM Tzipi Livni and Dep. PM Shimon Peres in Aviv was incurring criticism from the in- the first senior-level Israeli-Palestinian meet- ternational community in light of the wors- ing since 6/05. The Israelis repeated their ening conditions in the territories caused demands for changes by Hamas and spoke by U.S.-Israeli sanctions, made it known of a possible Abbas-Olmert meeting in the that it could not back further Israeli uni- near future, but Olmert stated (5/21) that lateral action, particularly defining borders, he would meet with Abbas only if he made without compromising other foreign policy efforts to disarm militant groups and force priorities, especially with regard to Iran’s the Hamas-led government to recognize past nuclear program (see Iran section below). deals with Israel, which Olmert doubted was The U.S. pressed Israel to at least make a possible. (“[Abbas] is helpless. He’s unable show of engaging Abbas in discussion on to even stop the minimal terrorist activities the convergence plan, also reportedly fear- amongst the Palestinians.”) Also on the WEF ing that bypassing Abbas altogether would sidelines, Livni met with Egyptian FM Ahmad undermine his standing with the Palestini- Abu al-Ghayt and rejected his proposal of im- ans and strengthen Hamas’s position further. mediate resumption of final status talks, stat- Washington also wanted Jordan to be con- ing Israel’s interpretation (not accepted by sulted on the plan. (Of note: The U.S. and the international community) that the road Israel also took steps just before the Bush- map required that Palestinians dismantle all Olmert meeting to soften their public image militant groups and halt all violence (includ- toward the Palestinians: USAID began dis- ing incitement) before negotiations could be tributing $800,000 worth of medicine in considered. (Of note: Israel’s long-standing the West Bank and Gaza on 5/17; the Is- position on the road map is that it is “dead” raeli cabinet approved on 5/21 the release and “no longer relevant.”) of $11 m. in VAT taxes withheld from the PA Meanwhile, Haniyeh endeavored to to NGOs in the territories unconnected to present his government as a rational in- Hamas for medical aid to Gaza hospitals.) terlocutor that could deliver significant Given U.S. constraints, the 5/23 meeting progress toward peace, security, and inter- largely became what former U.S. consul gen. nal reform if given a chance to act without Edward Abington characterized as the open- undue political constraints. In a high-profile ing of Olmert-Bush administration negotia- interview to the Israeli daily Ha’Aretz (pub- tions on the convergence plan. According to lished 5/23), he reiterated that if Israel were U.S. officials, Bush privately pressed Olmert to withdraw to 1967 borders, peace would to clarify the IDF status in the West Bank after prevail and the issue of Palestinian recog- implementation, Israeli plans for the Jordan nition of Israel could be opened. He also Valley, whether the separation wall would restated readiness to deal with Israel im- become the legal border, and the compati- mediately on day-to-day matters, though he bility of convergence with a 2-state solution.