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Oroville Dam Safety Comprehensive Needs Assessment Summary

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Oroville Dam Safety Comprehensive Needs Assessment Summary Oroville Dam Safety Comprehensive Needs Assessment Summary October 30, 2020 STATE OF CALIFORNIA THE NATURAL RESOURCES AGENCY DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES This page left blank intentionally. State of California California Natural Resources Agency DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES Division of Engineering Oroville Dam Safety Comprehensive Needs Assessment Summary ENGINEERING CERTIFICATION This report has been prepared under our direction as the professional engineers in direct responsible charge of the work, in accordance with the provisions of the Professional Engineers Act of the State of California. Leslie F. Harder, Jr., PhD, PE, GE Stephen W. Verigin, PE, GE Deputy Project Manager Deputy Project Manager This page left blank intentionally. Document Preparation Acknowledgements This Document Prepared by: Management Review CNA Integration Team Technical Team Leads Ted Craddock, PE Sergio Escobar, PE Craig Hall, PE, GE DWR DWR Task 1 Deputy Director, State CNA Project Manager GEI Consultants, Inc. Water Project Principal Geotechnical Leslie F. Harder, PhD, PE, GE Engineer David Duval HDR Engineering, Inc. DWR Principal Professional Dustin Jones, PE Division of Operations & Associate Task 2 Maintenance, Chief DWR Stephen W. Verigin, PE, GE Supervising Engineer, Water Jeanne Kuttel, PE GEI Consultants, Inc. Resources DWR Chief Geotechnical Engineer Division of Engineering, Robert Filgas, PE Chief David Ford, PhD, PE Task 3 HDR Engineering, Inc. HDR Engineering, Inc. Sergio S. Escobar, PE Chief Dam Engineer DWR Vice President, Principal CNA Project Manager Hydrologic Engineer Christopher Krivanec, PE, GE Task 4 John Leahigh, PE Rhonda Robins, JD, CFM DWR HDR Engineering, Inc. HDR Engineering, Inc. Chief of Utility Operations Senior Planner Dam Lead for Northern California David Sarkisian, PE Elizabeth Lewis DWR GEI Consultants, Inc. Timothy Wehling, PE Principal Engineer, WR Spillway Project Team Support Task 5 DWR John Yarbrough, PE Chief, Dams and Canals DWR Section Assistant Deputy Director, State Water Project Shanna Adams, PE Task 6 Mark Hafner, PE HDR Engineering, Inc. DWR Water/Wastewater Engineer Oroville Field Division, Chief i California Department of Water Resources Oroville Dam Safety Comprehensive Needs Assessment Summary This page left blank intentionally. ii Table of Contents Contents Preface .......................................................................................................................... ix Executive Summary ...................................................................................................... 1 Background ............................................................................................................................... 1 2017 Oroville Spillway Incident.................................................................................................. 1 CNA Purpose ............................................................................................................................ 2 Scope and Scale of the CNA ..................................................................................................... 2 Independent Review and Community Engagement .................................................................. 4 CNA Independent Review Board ........................................................................................... 4 CNA Ad Hoc Group ............................................................................................................... 4 CNA Risk Analysis Methodology ............................................................................................... 4 Primary Finding from Risk Analyses .......................................................................................... 6 Types of Potential Risk Reduction Measures and Alternative Plans Developed by the CNA Project ....................................................................................................................................... 7 Risks Considered in the Development of Measures and Plans ............................................. 7 Measures and Plans to Further Reduce Risk (Large-Scale, Long-Term) .............................. 8 CNA Early Implementation Project (Currently Underway) ....................................................... 11 Recommended CNA Interim Risk-Reduction Actions (Near-Term Projects) ........................... 11 Recommended CNA Interim Implementation Project .......................................................... 11 Additional CNA Recommended Interim Measures .............................................................. 12 Recommended Long-Term Path Forward for Future Consideration of Alternative Risk- Reduction Plans (Long-Term Risk-Management Process at Oroville) .................................... 13 Chapter 1. Introduction ............................................................................................... 15 Report Overview ...................................................................................................................... 15 Background Information on Oroville Dam and its Appurtenant Facilities ................................ 15 Roles of Federal and Dam Safety Regulatory Agencies ......................................................... 16 Role of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) in Regulating Oroville Dam .. 16 Role of Division of Safety of Dams (DSOD) in Regulating Oroville Dam ............................. 17 The 2017 Oroville Spillway Incident and Motivation for the Comprehensive Needs Assessment ............................................................................................................................. 17 Purpose and Commitment for the CNA Project ....................................................................... 19 iii California Department of Water Resources Oroville Dam Safety Comprehensive Needs Assessment Summary Organization of this Report ...................................................................................................... 21 Chapter 2. CNA Scope, Organization, and Design ................................................... 23 Organizing Principles of the CNA ............................................................................................ 23 The Level of Detail Used by the CNA ...................................................................................... 23 Why and How the CNA was Risk-Informed ............................................................................. 23 How the CNA was Conducted as a Semi-Quantitative Risk Assessment ............................... 24 How the CNA Defined Risk .................................................................................................. 24 How the CNA Used Semi-Quantitative Risk Analysis .......................................................... 24 CNA Organization ................................................................................................................... 24 CNA Scope .............................................................................................................................. 25 CNA Independent Review Board (IRB) ................................................................................... 26 CNA Ad Hoc Group ................................................................................................................. 27 Chapter 3. Adoption of Tolerable Risk Concepts in CNA ........................................ 29 Definition of Risk Assessment ................................................................................................. 29 Definition of Tolerable Risk...................................................................................................... 29 Development of the Concept of Tolerable Risk as Used in Dam Safety Risk Studies ........ 29 FERC Tolerable Risk Guidelines for Dams ......................................................................... 31 Definition of ALARP ................................................................................................................. 33 CNA Adoption of Extended Version of DWR Operations and Maintenance Asset Management Risk Matrix as Core Planning Tool .................................................................... 34 CNA Risk Matrix .................................................................................................................. 34 Consideration of Uncertainty in Risk Estimates ................................................................... 35 Chapter 4. Estimated Risks for Existing Conditions ................................................ 41 CNA Definition of Existing Conditions ..................................................................................... 41 Potential Failure Mode Development Process ........................................................................ 41 Estimation of Likelihood (Annual Probability) of a Potential Failure Mode .............................. 42 Estimation of Consequences for a Potential Failure Mode ...................................................... 44 Use of Multiple Failure States/Scenarios in CNA PFM Risk Estimates ................................... 46 CNA Existing Condition PFM Risk Estimates .......................................................................... 48 Primary Finding from CNA Existing Condition PFM Risk Estimates ....................................... 50 Assessments of Higher-Risk CNA Existing Condition PFMs ................................................... 50 Comparisons with the 2019 L2RA Risk
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