Climate Change Adaptation

‘Stories’ of Ontario

A collection of five adaptation initiatives from across Ontario

2017

Table of Contents

Acknowledgements…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….………………………………………………………………………………………………….1

Project Support…………………….……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..………………………………………………………….1

About OCCIAR………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….……………………………………………………………………………………………..2

Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….……3

Story One – Preparing a ‘Forest City’ for Climate Change………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………7

Story Two – The Home Flood Protection Program: Working with Homeowners to Reduce Flood Risk………………………………………………..…………….…13

Story Three – Automated Rain Barrels: A ‘Smart’ Stormwater Solution……………………………………………………………….…………………………………………………….18

Story Four – Urban Forests in a Changing Climate…………………………………………………………………………….………………………………………………………………………….24

Story Five – Ontario’s Headwaters and a Changing Climate………………………………………………………….………………………………………………………………………….…30

Acknowledgments Project Support

OCCIAR would like to express sincere gratitude to the following This project was made possible with federal funding support individuals and their organizations for their contribution to the through Natural Resources Canada’s Regional Adaptation report. Their feedback and input was incredibly valuable in the Collaboratives Program. development and refinement of the project.

 Amber Cantell, ReForest London To learn more, please visit: www.ClimateOntario.ca  Andrew McCammon, Ontario Headwaters Institute  Cheryl Evans, Intact Centre on Climate Change (University of Waterloo)  Dana Decent, Intact Centre on Climate Change (University of Waterloo)  Kaitlin Richardson, ReForest London  Kevin Mercer, RainGrid Systems Inc.  Marcus Ginder, RiverSides  Stephen Smith, Urban Forest Associates Inc.

For more information, please contact: Suzanne Perdeaux Climate Change Researcher Ontario Centre for Climate Impacts and Adaptation Resources (OCCIAR) MIRARCO/Laurentian University

705-675-1151 ext. 5121 [email protected]

Suggested Citation

Perdeaux, S. 2017. Climate Change Adaptation ‘Stories’ of Ontario: A collection of five adaptation initiatives from across Ontario. Submitted to the Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Division of Natural Resources Canada, 39p.

1 | P a g e

About OCCIAR

The Ontario Centre for Climate Impacts and Adaptation Resources (OCCIAR) is a university-based resource hub that promotes, supports, and advances climate change adaptation in Ontario through education, communication, and stakeholder engagement. Focused solely on climate change impacts and adaptation, OCCIAR’s experienced team of experts provide resources, information and facilitated support to a wide variety of stakeholders in Ontario and across Canada.

Since 2001, OCCIAR has completed more than 52 distinct climate change adaptation projects throughout Ontario and Canada, partnering with a range of stakeholders including municipal, provincial and federal governments, Conservation Authorities, First OCCIAR is located at Laurentian University in Nations, and a range of industries/sectors. OCCIAR has in-depth Sudbury, Ontario knowledge of climate change science, provincial, territorial and regional climate change impacts, adaptation planning frameworks and tools, and has extensive experience working with a broad range of communities (large-small, urban-rural, north-south) with diverse economies and a range of adaptation knowledge and needs.

You can visit OCCIAR’s website to learn more about the organization and to see a list of other past and on-going projects and activities:

www.ClimateOntario.ca

2 | P a g e

Introduction

Changes in Ontario’s climate have been observed over the past several decades. Between 1948 and 2012, the average annual temperature in Ontario increased by 1.5°Ci – a rate of warming that is faster than the global average (see Figure 1)ii. Ontario’s spring and winter trends are also similar, with the most significant iii and dramatic increases in the northwest and the south . Weather stations across Ontario have shown a trend towards increases in rainfall in all seasons, with the most pronounced increases seen in the northwestern parts of the province during spring (see Figure

2)iv. Moreover, increases in the number and/or intensity of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, extreme rainfall events and ice storms have been observed province-widev.

Figure 2 – Trends in annual total precipitation for 1948–2012 show an increase of up to 50% in some parts of the provincevii.

Current changes in Ontario’s climate have serious and significant impacts that are felt differently throughout the province and across all sectors of the economy and societyviii. Warmer winters have increased the length of the ice-free period on lakes in Ontario, reducing the length of the winter ice road season which is important for some remote northern communities, as well as for forestry and mining operations that rely on ice roads for access to northern locationsix. Record high temperatures have led to more frequent and prolonged heat waves, impacting agriculture yields, creating changes in the structure and function of ecosystems and x prompting health concerns throughout the province .

Figure 1 – Trends in annual mean temperature for 1948–2012 show a Increasing mean annual temperatures are also leading to the warming of 1.5°C in Ontario, with some parts of the province warming up to northward expansion of some plant and animal speciesxi. Some 2°Cvi. rapidly migrating animal and plant species have the potential to alter the ecosystems they invade by outcompeting native species, spreading disease and altering natural patterns of biodiversityxii. For example, the winter range of the black-legged tick responsible for the spread of Lyme disease has expanded from southern

3 | P a g e

Ontario and the northeastern USA into central Ontario and is projected to reach northern Ontario by the 2080sxiii.

Furthermore, extreme weather events such as heavy precipitation are having devastating impacts on municipalities across Ontario. For example, in 2002 the City of Peterborough experienced widespread flooding from a 1 in 100 year rainfall event, followed by another 1 in 250 year rainfall event in 2004xiv, which resulted in $95 million in insured lossesxv. Similarly, on July 8 2013, the City of Toronto received its total monthly average precipitation amount in just a few hoursxvi. The storm caused extensive flooding that damaged roads, inundated homes, caused power outages and shut xvii down the city’s subway system . Events such as these can no Figure 3 – Projected annual temperature and precipitation change for RCP8.5 longer be explained as part of normal weather variability, but are for 2046-2065 relative to a 1986-2005 baseline using the 50th percentile of now part of a significant change in climate that is influencing the the distribution of the CMIP5 ensemble xxi. frequency and severity of extreme weatherxviii/xix. In this report, you will read about the exceptional measures that These changes in climate and weather illustrate the potential stakeholders in Ontario’s forestry, infrastructure, and municipal future effects of increasing global greenhouse gas emissions planning sectors are undertaking in order to reduce their (GHGs) on many aspects of life for Ontarians, including dramatic vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. Collectively, these social, agricultural, economic, and ecological consequences. five ‘adaptation stories’ demonstrate that governments, Studies agree that Ontario will continue to gradually get warmer corporations, businesses, organizations and individual citizens alike and wetterxx. If GHG emissions continue unabated, annual surface are concerned about climate change and believe that it should be temperature is projected to rise 3-4°C by mid-century and annual considered in all current and future decision-making. Each ‘story’ precipitation may rise by as much as 20% in some parts of the describes ways in which climate change is affecting the individual province (see Figure 3). communities, organizations and sectors, as well as the steps being taken to plan and prepare for the risks of climate change. These projected changes in future temperature and precipitation demonstrate the importance of understanding the impacts of While climate change poses many risks, it can also present climate change and adapting to them. Here, climate change opportunities and benefits such as longer growing seasons, greater adaptation refers to taking proactive action to minimize the risks agricultural yields and increased recreational opportunities. Thus, of climate change, taking advantage of any opportunities that in addition to the steps being taken to reduce the negative impacts climate change presents, and ultimately increasing the resilience of climate change, these adaptation stories highlight efforts to take of Ontario’s economy and communities to withstand changes in advantage of the benefits that are presented by climate change. climate conditions and weather events.

4 | P a g e

End Notes

i Vincent, L. A., X. L. Wang, E. J. Milewska, H. Wan, F. Yang and V. Swail. 2012. A second generation of homogenized Canadian monthly surface air temperature for climate trend analysis. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, pp 117. ii Li, Z., G. Huang, W. Huang, Q. Lin, R. Liao and Y. Fan. 2017. Future changes of temperature and heat waves in Ontario, Canada. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, pp 1-10. iii McDermid, J., S. Fera and A. Hogg. 2015. Climate change projections for Ontario: An updated synthesis for policymakers and planners. Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Science and Research Branch, Peterborough, Ontario. Climate Change Research Report CCRR-44. Available at: www.climateontario.ca/MNR_Publications/CCRR-44.pdf iv Mekis, É. and L. A. Vincent. 2011. An overview of the second generation adjusted daily precipitation dataset for trend analysis in Canada. Atmosphere-Ocean, 49: 163–177. v Ontario Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change. 2014. Ontario’s Adaptation Strategy & Action Plan: 2011–2014. Available at: www.ontario.ca/document/climate-ready-adaptation-strategy-and-action-plan-2011-2014-0 vi Vincent, L. A., X. Zhang, R. D. Brown, Y. Feng, E. Mekis, E. J. Milewska, H. Wan and X. L. Wang. 2015. Observed trends in Canada’s climate and influence of low-frequency variability models. Journal of Climate, 30(14). vii Ibid. viii Ontario Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change. 2014. Ontario’s Adaptation Strategy & Action Plan: 2011–2014. Available at: www.ontario.ca/document/climate-ready-adaptation-strategy-and-action-plan-2011-2014-0 ix Ontario Ministry of Northern Development and Mines. 2014. Northern Ontario winter roads. Available at: www.mndm.gov.on.ca/en/northern- development/transportation-support/northern-ontario-winter-roads x Fortune, M. K., C. A. Mustard, J. J. Etches and A. G. Chambers. 2013. Work-attributed illness arising from excess heat exposure in Ontario, 2004–2010. Canadian Journal of Public Health, 104: e420–e42; Smoyer, K. E., D. G. Rainham and J. N. Hewko. 2000. Heat-stress-related mortality in five cities in Southern Ontario: 1980–1996. International Journal of Biometeorology, 44:190–197. xi Catling, P. M. and M. J. Oldham. 2011. Recent expansion of Spiranthes cernua (Orichidae) into northern Ontario due to climate change? Canadian Field-Naturalist, 125: 34-40. xii Colombo, S. J., P. A. Gray, P. J. Partington and D. Pearson. 2015. Beyond 450 parts per million: Climate change hazards in a 4°C warmer world and how Ontario can help avoid them. Ontario Centre for Climate Impacts and Adaptation Resources, Sudbury, ON. Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Peterborough, ON. Available at: http://www.academia.edu/21191364/Beyond_450_parts_per_million_Climate_change_hazards_in_a_4_C_warmer_world_and_how_Ontario_c an_help_avoid_them xiii Ogden, N.H., L. St.-Onge, I.K. Barker, S. Brazeau, M. Bigras-Poulin, D.F. Charron, C.M.. Francis, A. Heagy, L.R. Lindsay, A. Maarouf, P. Michel, F. Milord, C.J. O’Callaghan, L. Trudel, L., and R.A. Thompson. 2008. Risk maps for range expansion of the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes Scapularis, in Canada now and with climate change. International Journal of Health Geographics, 7(24). xiv Sandink, D. 2013. Urban flooding in Canada. Lot-side risk reduction through voluntary retrofit programs, code interpretation and by-laws. Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, ICLR research paper series – number 52. Toronto, Ontario. Available at: www.iclr.org/images/Urban_Flooding_in_Canada_-_ICLR_-_2013.pdf

5 | P a g e

xv Environmental Commissioner of Ontario. 2014. Sink, Swim or Tread Water: Adapting Infrastructure to Extreme Weather Events. An excerpt from the ECO 2014 Annual Greenhouse Gas Progress Report. Available at: www.docs.assets.eco.on.ca/reports/climate-change/2014/2014- GHG-Sink-Swim.pdf xvi The Weather Network. 2013. Heavy rain drenches parts of the Greater Toronto Area causing flash floods, blackouts. Available at: www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/heavy-rain-drenches-parts-of-the-greater-toronto-area-causing-flash-floods-blackouts/8970/ xvii Canadian Property Management. 2013. Toronto floods expose vulnerable infrastructure: Electricity transmission system rerouted to serve central city. Available at: www.reminetwork.com/articles/toronto-floods-expose-vulnerable-infrastructure/ xviii Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2013. Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T. F., D. Qin, G.- K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P. M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY. xix World Meteorological Organization. 2013. The global climate 2001–2010. A decade of climate extremes. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, CH. Report WMO-No. 1103. Available at: www.public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/no-976-2001-2010-decade-of-climate- extremes xx Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R. K. Pachauri and A. Reisinger (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, p. 104 xxi Adapted from Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios. 2017. Available at: www.cccsn.ec.gc.ca/index.php?page=download-cmip5

6 | P a g e

Story One – Preparing a ‘Forest City’ for Climate Change

ReForest London

Introduction

The City of London has long been known as the ‘Forest City’ – a Today, human-induced climate change has implications for the city built around a foresti. Located in southern Ontario, London’s composition, structure, and function of local forest ecosystems, urban area contains an extensive forest of more than four million including drought stress, storm damage, disease, and invasive healthy trees that would cost more than $1.5 billion to replaceii. speciesv. As a result of warmer winter temperatures, pests are able to spread into areas that were previously unsuitable, such as The community of London appreciates its forests for their vast the Emerald Ash Borer – an invasive insect that infects and benefits that go beyond aesthetic appeal. London’s forests eventually kills ash trees (see Figure 2). The City of London will provide clean air by filtering contaminants; fight climate change spend an estimated $14.3 million over a 15 year period on the by sequestering and storing carbon; save money by shading treatment, removal, replanting, and monitoring of ash treesvi. buildings and reducing energy consumption; and help Londoners stay healthy by creating space for recreational activities. Together, London’s trees are estimated to deliver over $17 million in ecosystem goods and services every yeariii.

Figure 2 – The Emerald Ash Borer is an invasive wood-boring beetle that has spread from Michigan into southern Ontario due to warmer winter temperatures. The insect attacks all native species of ash trees, typically killing them within 2 to 3 yearsvii.

Figure 1 – The City of London is located within the Carolinian Life Zone and is a Canadian biodiversity hot spot. More species of trees naturally occur in Warmer temperatures and altered precipitation patterns are Carolinian Canada than anywhere else in the country. Today, less than 15% shifting tree climate envelopes northwards – on average almost of the Carolinian forest ecosystem remains in scattered strands across 60km between 1981-2010 compared to a 1931-1960 baselineviii. southern Ontarioiv. However, tree species are unable to shift north at the same pace

7 | P a g e as their climate envelopes. The effects of this lag are shown in a trend of earlier spring budbreak, which is increasing the occurrence of damages due to late spring frostsix. Warmer winter temperatures are also causing more precipitation to fall as rain instead of snowx. The reduced snowpack eliminates an important source of soil moisture for trees during the growing season and increases the risk of forest firesxi. Further, more frequent and intense extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall and ice storms, have caused devastating tree loss and damage, placing an economic burden on cities to remove and replace lost trees, which reduces their ecosystem benefitsxii.

The City of London has identified climate change as a key threat to its urban forestxiii and is responding by taking proactive action to protect the ‘Forest City’. London’s Urban Forest Strategy contains goals and actions specific to improving tree care, tree management, and encouraging the inclusion of adaptive management into standards and best management practicesxiv. Figure 3 – ReForest London has inspired Londoners to plant 330,000 trees Through these actions, the City expects an improvement in the as part of its Million Tree Challenge (Photo courtesy of ReForest London). overall health of its forests, which will provide resilience to future In recent years, the most prominent environmental change xv climate change impacts . observed by ReForest London are changes in precipitation. Tree planting comprises the largest proportion of ReForest London’s Managing for the impacts of climate change in London’s forests is initiatives, and changes in precipitation have impacted their entire also a focus of many local organizations. Born out of a growing organization. For example, staff have observed an increase in the concern for tree loss in the Forest City, ReForest London is taking frequency and severity of prolonged droughts, which has reduced proactive action to tackle the effects of climate change. the overall survival rate of their trees and made it more difficult for newly planted trees and shrubs to become established. Signs of Change by ReForest London Despite increasing the number of staff and volunteer hours dedicated to planting aftercare, the organization is often unable ReForest London is a non-profit organization focused on to meet the watering demand brought on by dry conditions. enhancing environmental and human health in the Forest City through tree planting. Their programs are designed to increase Droughts are also impacting the ability of local trees to produce the distribution and diversity of forests through initiatives that fruits and nuts, which affects the natural regeneration of forests. range from seed collection and harvesting to community-wide Because forest regeneration is dependent upon seedling education programs that inspire residents to plant and care for production, the quantity and diversity of species are reduced xvi trees in their neighborhoods . For Reforest London, the evidence during times of drought. This loss threatens the diversity of trees of climate change in local forests is abundantly clear. planted by ReForest London as any gap in seed collection for a

8 | P a g e given species may reduce the availability of the species, and be ‘climate envelope’, are already being driven northward by shifting consequently left out of the reforestation projects that year. temperature regimesxx. The team at ReForest London is using ReForest London also collects their own seed for seedling publicly available climate change data and species hardiness growing with school groups and volunteers. The trees from these modelsxxi to anticipate changes in the range of tree species programs supplement ReForest London’s seedling giveaway currently found in southern Ontario by the end of the century. program to the community and are used in infill planting – a The results of the modeling is helping to inform current species practice that involves returning to tree planting sites and filling in selection for individual planting sites, ensuring that the chosen the space between trees. tree species will survive in the future climate conditions expected for the area. For example, by 2071-2100, the natural southern New and encroaching insects are also a growing concern. Since range of spruce trees is estimated to be north of London; thus, its discovery in London in 2006, the Emerald Ash Borer has ReForest London is considering halting any future planting of the caused significant damage to London’s ash trees and continues to species. threaten about 20,000 trees on public and private propertyxvii. While the City of London is actively working to control the spread ReForest London staff are also considering ways to enhance the and damage caused by the Emerald Ash Borer, ReForest London survival of tree species through the process of assisted migration. had to redirect its tree planting efforts from expanding the city’s This would involve strategically moving the genetic material of forest cover to refilling gaps in the forest community due to lost trees (e.g. seeds and seedlings) to more climatically suitable ash trees. The Emerald Ash Borer is expected to cost London habitats. To inform a program on assisted migration, ReForest about 10% of its ash trees, and other pests could cause an even London staff are researching the origins of Ontario’s invasive more dramatic impactxviii. For example, the Asian Longhorn Beatle plant species, including their historical rate of movement and is another invasive species that could damage multiple tree factors that led to their establishment in new areas. Through this species, including maple, willow, and poplarxix. research, ReForest London staff have decided to move forward with a “continentally native” framework, which would recognize Preparing the Forest City that some species that are considered not native now may soon find their “natural” range occuring in their area, while non- Climate change has led ReForest London to redirect valuable time continental species would still be considered unsuitable for and resources to managing the impacts of climate change. The London (since it would be impossible for them to naturally occur organization is working to protect and plan for future changes in there). Their assisted migration program would also include climate through the ongoing development of a climate change consideration of the unique site requirements of each species and adaptation plan, anticipated for release by the end of 2017. The the range expansions projected by climate change models. In plan is expected to highlight the importance of developing addition, ReForest London is contemplating the risks that are adaptive strategies in order to minimize the risks and maximize associated with implementing assisted migration. These might the benefits brought by a changing climate. include: the impact of introduced species on the host environment; a species becoming invasive; and mortality or loss Anticipated changes in Ontario’s climate will reduce the degree to of investment if the species is not well adapted to local which local populations of tree species are adapted to the climate conditionsxxii. where they occur today. Many species, following their ideal

9 | P a g e

However, according to ReForest London’s Director of Programs, incorporating new information into their long-term strategic Amber Cantell, doing nothing is not an approach that their planning. By adapting to the realities of climate change, ReForest organization is willing to take: London will ensure the sustainability of its operations and will continue fulfilling its mission to enhance the quality of environmental and human health in London’s Forest City. “We are simply running out of time. Climate change is coming up fast. Assisted migration comes with serious risk, especially considering the possibility of introducing new pests or diseases. However, trees simply aren’t able to adapt at a rate fast enough to keep pace with the amount of climate change humans are causing. As a result, we expect a massive disconnect between the habitat needs of trees and where they happen to be growing. Now we’re stuck between a rock and a hard place: we’re afraid of the risks, but doing nothing looks likely to come with an even greater cost”.

– Amber Cantell, Director of Programs, ReForest London

With this in mind, ReForest London is focusing its efforts on maintaining the ability of their trees to reproduce naturally. The best tree planters, they point out, are trees themselves. The To learn more about ReForest London, please visit: organization is also a firm believer in combining the natural ability www.ReForestLondon.ca of nature with human efforts to combat the impacts of climate change.

Conclusion

While there is much uncertainty about Ontario’s future climate, including how forests will respond to climate change, ReForest London is taking proactive steps to ensure healthy forests that are resilient to change. They are formulating a response to the threat of climate change by increasing their understanding of the potential effects of climate change on city forests and

10 | P a g e

End Notes

i City of London. 2016. Founding of the Forest City. Available at: www.london.ca/About-London/london-history/Pages/Overview.aspx ii City of London Urban Forestry. 2012. Our Forest, Your Trees. London’s Growing Assets. Available at: www.london.ca/residents/Environment/Trees-Forests/Documents/UFORE%20Final%20Report%20May%2018%202012.pdf iii Ibid. iv Ibid. v City of London. 2014. City of London Urban Forest Strategy: Enhancing the Forest City. Available at: www.london.ca/residents/Environment/Trees-Forests/Documents/London%20Urban%20Forestry%20Strategy%20Final.pdf vi City of London. 2011. Emerald Ash Borer Strategy. Available at: www.london.ca/residents/Environment/Trees- Forests/Documents/London_EAB_FINAL_090711.pdf vii City of London. n.d. Identifying Ash Trees. Available at: www.london.ca/residents/Property- Matters/Trees/Documents/EAB_identificationguide.pdf viii McKenney, D. W., J. H. Pedlar, K. Lawrence, P. Papadopol, K. Campbell and M. F. Hutchinson. 2014. Change and evolution in the plant hardiness zones of Canada. BioScience, doi: 10.1093/biosci/biu016. ix Ibid. x Colombo, S. J., P. A. Gray, P. J. Partington and D. Pearson. 2015. Beyond 450 parts per million: Climate change hazards in a 4°C warmer world and how Ontario can help avoid them. Ontario Centre for Climate Impacts and Adaptation Resources, Sudbury, ON. Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Peterborough, ON. Available at: www.academia.edu/21191364/Beyond_450_parts_per_million_Climate_change_hazards_in_a_4_C_warmer_world_and_how_Ontario_can_help _avoid_them xi Colombo, S. J. 2008. Ontario’s Forests and Forestry in a Changing Climate. Climate Change Research Report CCRR-12. Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources. Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, Canada. Available at: www.climateontario.ca/MNR_Publications/276928.pdf xii Ibid. xiii City of London Urban Forestry. 2012. Our Forest, Your Trees. London’s Growing Assets. Available at: www.london.ca/residents/Environment/Trees-Forests/Documents/UFORE%20Final%20Report%20May%2018%202012.pdf xiv Ibid. xv Ibid. xvi ReForest London. 2011. Our Programs. Available at: www.reforestlondon.ca/programs xvii City of London. 2016. Trees and Forests: Emerald Ash Borer. Available at: www.london.ca/residents/Environment/Trees- Forests/Pages/Emerald-Ash-Borer.aspx xviii Personal Communication with Amber Cantell, Director of Programs, ReForest London (June 8, 2017). xix Ibid. xx Colombo, S. J., 2008. Ontario’s Forests and Forestry in a Changing Climate. Climate Change Research Report CCRR-12. Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources. Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, Canada. Available at: www.climateontario.ca/MNR_Publications/276928.pdf xxi ReForest London accesses information on species hardiness and climate change from Natural Resources Canada. Available at: www.planthardiness.gc.ca

11 | P a g e

xxii Natural Resources Canada. 2016. Assisted Migration. Available at: www.nrcan.gc.ca/forests/climate-change/adaptation/13121

12 | P a g e

Story Two – The Home Flood Protection Program: Working with Homeowners to Reduce Flood Risk

Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation

Introduction It is estimated that the storm caused over $90 million in insured

damagesv. While some received full coverage, many homeowners Urban flooding has become one of the most substantial threats to and property owners whose buildings were affected by overland property and health safety in Canadian municipalitiesi. The flooding received only partial coverage, and in some cases, no seriousness of the problem was recently exemplified in the coverage at all. Insurance protection for overland flooding only southeastern Ontario city of Burlington. On August 4, 2014 the became available for Canadians in 2015vi, leaving many uninsured city experienced a rainstorm that delivered 192mm of rainfall residents to pay out of pocket for replacing their valuables and within a period of several hours – an amount equivalent to nearly repairing damages. In addition, while sewer backup coverage is two-months of rainfall the city would regularly experience in the available to most homeowners in Canada, many opt to not summerii. The intense storm generated a significant volume of purchase it, as multiple insurance claims for damages from past water that entered into homes through sump pits, plumbing sewer backups can result in increased premiums or reduced fixtures and drains (sewer backup) and through openings and payout limits for future claimsvii. cracks in windows and foundations above grade (overland flow). Approximately 6,000 properties were reported to have experienced flooding, roughly 3,500 of which reported basement floodingiii. Box 1: Overland Flooding

Overland flooding is a type of urban flooding that occurs when water flows overland and seeps into buildings above the surface of the ground through windows, doors, cracks and openings in the foundation such as vent holes. It is one of the most frequent and costly natural hazards in Canadaviii.

Figure 1 – A homeowner in Burlington pumps out flood water from the basement entrance of his home after the August 2014 record stormiv.

13 | P a g e

Extreme rainfall events, like the one experienced in Burlington in knowledge gaps that limit homeowner action to protect their 2014, are becoming increasingly common due to climate change. homes from flooding. Outdated and aging municipal infrastructure, and a lack of The Home Flood Protection Program provides a list of online household level preventative maintenance are also contributing to resources customized for a particular community that helps increases in basement flood damage across Canadaix. As a result, homeowners tackle a variety of ‘do-it-yourself’ flood protection flood damage now surpasses fire as the primary cause of home projects around the homexiii. These resources help communities insurance losses in Canadax. increase their knowledge on flood protection measures and build Following the August 2014 storm, the City of Burlington their capacity to prepare for, and adapt to, the risks of basement commissioned a ‘Flood Vulnerability, Prioritization and Mitigation flooding. Study’ to analyze the storm and its impact on the city’s stormwater system. The findings led City Council to approve an additional $20.4 million in funds for stormwater infrastructure Box 2: Web Resources improvements, such as larger creek culverts and creek channel Available to Homeowners improvementsxi. Halton Region, which comprises the city of Burlington, also increased financial support for households who  Risk-prevention checklists have experienced flooding due to sanitary sewer backups,  How-to videos including a Sewer Backup Flooding Grant and a Basement  Seasonal maintenance Flooding Prevention Subsidy Programxii. reminders accessible through the quarterly Home Now, with the combined support of the City of Burlington, the Flood Protection Program Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation, and the Government of newsletter Ontario, Burlington residents have the opportunity to participate  Tips for finding qualified in a program that will help them take practical action to reduce contractors flood risk and the risk of damage in the event of a flood.  Questions to ask insurance providers Home Flood Protection Program  Information about local subsidies for home flood prevention measures Since 2016, the Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation (Intact Photo courtesy of the Intact Centre on Centre) at the University of Waterloo has been developing a Climate Adaptation comprehensive, community-based, basement flood-risk reduction program called the Home Flood Protection Program. The educational program works with the insurance industry, government, and community volunteers to develop simple and consistent messaging and free resources to help address

14 | P a g e

The Home Flood Protection Program also offers custom support to individual households through a flood-risk evaluation, known as the ‘Home Flood Protection Assessment’xiv. Together, with a University of Waterloo trained Home Flood Protection Assessor, homeowners rank the performance of 50 physical features inside and outside their home.

The preventative maintenance routine carried out by the homeowner is also ranked and provided with a score. The results are compared against a nationally developed set of criteria after which a report is generated identifying the top physical upgrades and preventative maintenance practices to:

 Reduce sewer backup, groundwater seepage and Figure 2 – Blair Feltmate from the Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation speaks at the announcement of the Home Flood Protection Program in overland flood risks; Burlington in August 2016xvi.  Reduce moisture levels that cause mould and mildew growth;  Reduce damage risks to contents and valuables; Between July and December 2017, a total of 4,000 flood  Wisely manage water onsite; and adaptation assessments will be carried out in homes throughout  Understand risks as they relate to insurance coverage. Burlington. Homeowners that participate in the assessment will A follow-up with the Assessor, a customer service help-line and receive access to customized, one-on-one support for taking seasonal maintenance reminders provide additional support to action to reduce their risk of basement flooding. homeowners as they work to protect their properties from future flooding events. Table 1: Program Goals

Program Rollout in Burlington 1. Assess the vulnerability of Burlington-area homes to flood damage

With funding support from the Ontario Ministry of the 2. Identify top-ranked physical features and preventative maintenance Environment and Climate Change and the City of Burlington, the practices that present flood risk at homes and provide access to Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation is piloting the Home Flood user-friendly resources to help people take action to reduce flood Protection Program in Burlington in 2017. The high number of risk basement floods experienced by homeowners after the August 3. Collect the data needed to inform potential expansion of the 2014 storm provides a unique opportunity to test the program across Ontario and Canada effectiveness of the flood-risk reduction education program in the communityxv.

15 | P a g e

All single family homes in Burlington will have access to the risk and encouraging the sustained adoption of mitigation assessment service and four neighbourhoods will be targeted for measures. intensive promotion that are representative of those found across The Intact Centre for Climate Adaptation’s Home Flood Protection Ontario based on their type of municipal infrastructure, lot size Program represents a comprehensive approach that encourages and past experience with basement floodingxvii. Lessons learned private homeowners to implement flood-mitigation adjustments from the pilot program in Burlington will inform a broader rollout and increases awareness of flood risk through customized of the program across the province. educational campaigns. A challenge with any type of awareness To encourage neighborhood-level engagement, Home Flood building program is maintaining long-term momentum and Protection Program staff will work with members of target results. The Home Flood Protection Program is unique in that it is neighbourhoods and their Ward Councillor to create educational working directly with insurers, local governments, realtors and campaigns geared at building awareness of flooding and retailers to develop consistent messaging for a seasonal promoting actions homeowners can take to reduce their flood awareness-raising and preventative maintenance campaign that riskxviii. Free online resources for homeowners will be linked to can be sustained in the long-term in each community. City websites, councilor newsletters, social media, printed on Homeowner flood risk awareness is a critical beginning. Taking pamphlets and included in community presentations. action to reduce flood risk is the next step. Ongoing awareness

and preventative maintenance represents the long-term journey Raising Awareness of Flood Risk that will help address the growing problem of basement flooding

across Canada. Urban flooding presents a severe and growing problem for homeowners, municipalities and insurers in Canadaxix. Recent events, including the 2014 event in Burlington, have exemplified the financial and social impact of severe urban flooding events.

Along with municipal infrastructure upgrades and improved planning approaches, actions at the homeowner or lot level can xx play a significant role in the reduction of urban flood risk . Hazard-vulnerable residents often lack knowledge of the risks of flooding and/or perceive investments in damage-reducing measures as not worthwhile. Due to the increasing intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, all homes are now vulnerable to flooding due to the sheer volume of water that some storms generate. As a result, there is a vital need for To learn more about the Home Flood Protection programs aimed at increasing public awareness of urban flood Program, please visit: www.homefloodprotect.ca

16 | P a g e

End Notes

i Sandink, D. 2009. Urban Flooding, Homeowner Hazard Perceptions, and Climate Change. Public Safety & Emergency Management. Public Sector Digest. Winter 2009. Available at: www.iclr.org/images/Public_sector_digest.pdf ii City of Burlington. 2016. Current City Projects: Flood Recovery. Available at: www.burlington.ca/en/services-for-you/Flood-Recovery.asp iii Conservation Halton. 2015. August 4th, 2014 Storm Event, Burlington. Pp 1-35. Available at: www.conservationhalton.ca/uploads/burlington_flood_2015_04_30_-_final.pdf iv Williams, R. 2014. FLASH FLOOD: Months of rain flood Burlington in mere hours. Hamilton Spectator. August 5, 2014. Available at: www.thespec.com/news-story/4733800-flash-flood-months-of-rain-flood-burlington-in-mere-hours/ v Ibid. vi Aviva Canada. 2016. Industry first – Aviva Canada launching overland water protection for homeowners. Available at: www.avivacanada.com/article/industry-first-%E2%80%93-aviva-canada-launching-overland-water-protection-homeowners vii Sandink, D. 2011. Involving Homeowners in Urban Flood Risk Reduction. A Case Study of the Sherwood Forest Neighbourhood, London, Ontario. Institute for Catastrophic Loss and Reduction. Available at: www.iclr.org/images/Involving_homeowners_in_urban_flood_reduction.pdf viii Government of Canada. 2016. What is overland flooding? Available at: www.canada.ca/en/campaign/flood-ready/overland-flooding.html ix University of Waterloo. 2016. Home Adaptation Assessment Program Backgrounder. Press release, August 5, 2016. Available at: www.pantone201.ca/webskins/mpp/pdf/855.pdf x Insurance Bureau of Canada. 2016. Available at: http://assets.ibc.ca/Documents/Facts%20Book/Facts_Book/2016/Facts-Book-2016.pdf xi City of Burlington. 2016. Current City Projects: Flood Recovery. Available at: www.burlington.ca/en/services-for-you/Flood-Recovery.asp xii More information on the Halton Region sanitary sewer flooding support program is available at: www.burlington.ca/en/services-for-you/Flood- Prevention-Home-Checkup.asp xiii Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation. n.d. Programs. Available at: www.intactcentreclimateadaptation.ca/programs/ xiv Homeowners pay a small fee for the Home Flood Protection Assessment. xv Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation. 2017. The Home Adaptation Assessment Program: Frequently Asked Questions. Available at: www.intactcentreclimateadaptation.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/FAQ-Updates_March-2017.pdf xvi Goldring, R. 2016. Mayor Rick Goldring’s Blog. August 2016 Progress Report. September 1, 2016. Available at: www.burlingtonmayor.com/august- 2016-progress-report/ xvii Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation. 2017. The Home Adaptation Assessment Program: Frequently Asked Questions. Available at: www.intactcentreclimateadaptation.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/FAQ-Updates_March-2017.pdf xviii City of Burlington. 2016. Home Adaptation Assessment Program. Report to Community and Corporate Services Committee. Report CW-04-2016. Available at: www.burlingtonpublishing.escribemeetings.com/filestream.ashx?DocumentId=4545 xix Sandink, D. 2011. Involving Homeowners in Urban Flood Risk Reduction. A Case Study of the Sherwood Forest Neighbourhood, London, Ontario. Institute for Catastrophic Loss and Reduction. Available at: www.iclr.org/images/Involving_homeowners_in_urban_flood_reduction.pdf xx Miguez M., F. Mascarenas, L. Magalhaes and C. D’Alterio. 2009. Planning and design of urban flood control measures: Assessing effects combination. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, September, pp 100-109.

17 | P a g e

Story Three – Automated Rain Barrels: A ‘Smart’ Stormwater Solution

RiverSides

Introduction

Located on the shores of Lake Ontario, the City of Toronto is Alternating patterns between drought conditions and flooding has highly vulnerable to climate change due to its high-density also occurred. On July 8 2013, the equivalent of one month’s population, rapid urbanization and networks of interdependent worth of rain (126mm) fell within hours across Toronto. The i infrastructure . Over the past two decades, Toronto has observed heavy rainfall exceeded the capacity of the city’s stormwater increasing temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and a sewers and flooded the Don River, which flows into Lake Ontario. record number of extreme weather events that have affected the The water poured from sewers and surfaces into subway stations ii city’s water resources in different ways . and basements, stranded commuters, and left many residents vii During the summer of 2016, historically low precipitation led to a without power . The storm had an economic impact of almost $1 severe drought across the cityiii with some areas recording billion in damages – the most expensive natural disaster to date viii deficits of more than 120mm by summers endiv. The city was in Ontario . subjected to reduced water availability and residents were asked to curtail their water consumption by 10%v.

Figure 1 – Lawns and gardens throughout the city were left to dry during a Figure 2 – The equivalent of one month’s worth of rain fell within hours ix severe drought in the summer of 2016vi. during a July 2013 storm event in Toronto .

18 | P a g e

In the future, climate change is expected to create different organization RiverSides tested the effectiveness of the technology weather patterns across the city. By mid-century, average annual in helping alleviate stormwater stress in the city. The success of temperatures are projected to rise by as much as 4.4°Cxii and the the pilot program, highlighted here, shows the potential for number of days reaching temperatures above 30°C are expected individual homeowners and the broader community to protect to increase from 20 to 66 days per decade (based on the 2000- their property and city stormwater infrastructure from the 2009 baseline)xiii. Changes in precipitation are also expected to impacts of climate change. occur across the city, including less snow and more rainfall in the winter, and less rainfall in the summer but more intense storms that produce greater amounts of rainfall in shorter periods of Box 1: Rain Barrels timexiv. For example, the maximum amount of precipitation experienced in one day could increase from 66mm (from the Rain barrels work by capturing rain where it falls 2000-2009 baseline) to 166mm in the 2040 to 2049 timeframexv. and storing it for future use. Rain barrels are often used in Low Impact Development (LID), or green These changes in temperature and precipitation have implications infrastructure, an approach to managing for the management of Toronto’s stormwater through changes in stormwater by imitating the natural movement of the amount, timing and intensity of rainfall events. Water water. Along with other LID technology (e.g. rain gardens, green roofs) rain barrels reduce the resource decision-makers will need to consider new and pressure of stormwater on municipal infrastructure enhanced ways for managing stormwater that accounts for and prevents the amount of untreated rainfall climate change and climate change related events, such as from discharging into water bodiesx/xi. heavier downpours and oscillating drought-flood conditionsxvi.

Responding to Climate Change Stormwater Solutions at RiverSides The City of Toronto is responding to the risks associated with climate change by implementing a number of strategies and RiverSides was founded in 2002 in response to many stormwater initiatives for its stormwater system. Examples include: a by-law infrastructure failures that occurred across Toronto. The requiring new commercial developments of a certain square organization began advocating for the residential management of footage to have green roofs; a mandatory downspout urban stormwater through the use of large, sturdy rain barrels to disconnection program; and expanding storm sewer capacity in simply and effectively divert stormwaterxviii. After a decade of areas susceptible to floodingxvii. installing and maintaining the rain barrel systems, RiverSides identified many key limitations (e.g. rain barrels are manually Toronto residents are also taking action to prepare for water- operated and their effectiveness is dependent upon property related impacts of climate change. In the summer of 2016, the owner intervention). In search of a solution, Founder and then Toronto neighbourhood of Riverdale became the pilot site for the Manager of RiverSides, Kevin Mercer, developed automated world’s first automated rain barrel system. Environmental controllers for the barrels, a technology he called RainGridxix. The

19 | P a g e

technology allows owners to monitor and automatically manage The stormwater system helps prevent basement flooding by the rain barrel’s water levelxx. RiverSides continues to use the reducing discharge to municipal sewers and safely storing, RainGrid technology, as well as support the open-source capturing and redirecting stormwater on the property. The development of what they now describe as automated rain system works by reducing the amount of rainfall during a storm barrels. that could lead to flooding and creates a stock of accessible water that can be used in periods of drought. The barrels also How Does the System Work? provide municipalities and Conservation Authorities with measurable data that they can use to monitor the effectiveness Automated rain barrels (ARBs) are stand-alone residential of their stormwater resiliency measures. stormwater systems that capture up to 90% of annual rainfall runoff from roofs and redirects it away from the foundation of Testing the Technology in Riverdale, Toronto xxi the home, reducing the risk of flooding . Each rain barrel is equipped with automated sensors that monitor the barrel’s water In the summer of 2016, RiverSides launched the first-of-its-kind level, predicts anticipated rainfall events, and automatically drains community pilot to test and demonstrate the automated rain the stored water at least 24 hours prior to a stormxxii. The barrels barrel technology. After extensive community consultation, are connected to the internet, allowing homeowners, RiverSides fitted 15 homes in the Toronto neighbourhood of municipalities or Conservation Authorities to control rain barrels from smart phones or computer dashboards. Riverdale with one 500L automated rain barrel. Despite an exceptionally dry summer, each rain barrel diverted between 1,000 to 2,000 L of rainwater a month from Toronto city sewers, the Don River and Lake Ontarioxxiv. The results show that each well-installed prototype diverted 10,000 L to 20,0000 L of water annually — or collectively over 50,000 L in the five-month data collection periodxxv. The automated rain barrels when working, had a high degree of satisfaction among participantsxxvi; the unique internal sensor gave homeowners the option to by-pass drainage and use the water around their property – a popular option during the drought of 2016.

Results of the pilot study show that residents used 80% or more of the total water collected on their property for gardening and xxvii other uses . This shows the value of the rain barrel system in providing a stock of accessible water to residents in times of

drought and thus alleviating pressure on municipal water Figure 3 – The controller box provides communication between the rain barrel and a computer. Each rain barrel is equipped with a small solar panel resources. that provides back-up energy for the controller's batteryxxiii.

20 | P a g e

only collects water during heavy rainfall events, but also provides water during times of drought. Together, RiverSides and one Toronto community have demonstrated that cities can increase the resilience of municipal stormwater infrastructure to increasing

extreme weather events, one automated rain barrel system and one household at a time.

Table 1: Projections over time in thousands (K), millions (M) and billions (B)xxx

Number of Min-max volume Min-max volume Min-max volume (L) (L) (L) automated rain barrels 3 years 5 years 10 years 1 30-60K 50-100K 100-200K 50 1.5-3M 2.5-5M 5-10M

500 15-30M 25-50M 50-100M Figure 4 – Homeowners were able to access information about their rain 1,000 30-60M 50-100M 100-200M barrel through a dashboard, including the water capacity of their rain barrel, 5,000 150-300M 250-500M 500M-1B a five-day weather forecast, and data on the amount of diverted rainwater 15,000 450-900M 750M-1.5B 1.5-3B to datexxviii.

Conclusion

Recent extreme weather events in the City of Toronto show the escalating threat of climate change on stormwater and city infrastructure. However, the results of the 2016 pilot program revealed that automated rain barrels directly prevent residential flood risk and can be easily integrated into a broader municipal system. When the system is working properly, each barrel can capture between 10,000 and 20,000 litres over a 10 month collection season. When scaled up, a system of 15 thousand rain barrels can divert up to 3 billion litres of water over 10 yearsxxix, proving to be an effective adaptation option at the community- level. To learn more about RiverSides or RainGrid, please The automated rain barrel system is a highly valuable tool in visit: www.RiverSides.org adapting to unpredictable and extreme weather events as it not www.RainGrid.com

21 | P a g e

End Notes

i Henstra, D. and J. Thistelthwaite. 2017. Climate Change, Floods, and Municipal Risk Sharing in Canada, in IMFG Papers on Municipal Finance and Governance, 30: 4. Available at: www.munkschool.utoronto.ca/imfg/uploads/373/1917_imfg_no_30_online_final.pdf ii Toronto Region Conservation Authority. 2016. Climate Change Impacts. Local Impacts. Available at: www.trca.ca/conservation/climate- change/climate-change-impacts iii Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. 2016. 2016 Annual Report of Agroclimate Conditions across Canada. Available at: www.agr.gc.ca/eng/programs-and-services/list-of-programs-and-services/drought-watch/2016-annual-report-of-agroclimate-conditions-across- canada/?id=1487809939662#a3 iv Ibid. v Faris, N. 2016. One-in-a-decade dryness: Rainless Ontario verges into drought, and there’s no end in sight. National Post. July 5, 2016. Available at: www.news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/once-in-a-decade-dryness-rainless-ontario-verges-into-drought-and-theres-no-end-in-sight vi Ibid. vii Mills, C. 2013. Toronto’s July flood listed as Ontario’s most costly natural disaster. The Star. August 14, 2013. Available at: www.thestar.com/business/2013/08/14/july_flood_ontarios_most_costly_natural_disaster.html viii Ibid. ix Ibid. x Capital Region District. 2013. Green Infrastructure. Available at: www.crd.bc.ca/education/low-impact-development xi Image of rain barrel: Capital Region District. n.d. Rain Barrels. Available at: www.capitolregionwd.org/residents/rain-barrels xii Toronto Environment Office. 2012. Toronto’s Future Weather & Climate Driver Study: Outcomes Report. Available at: www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2013/pe/bgrd/backgroundfile-55150.pdf xiii Ibid. xiv Ibid. xv Ibid. xvi Environmental Protection Agency. 2016. Stormwater Management in Response to Climate Change Impacts: Lessons from the Chesapeake Bay and Great Lakes Regions. March 2016. Office of Research and Development. Washington, DC. Pp. 66. Available at: https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/global/recordisplay.cfm?deid=310045 xvii City of Toronto. 2013. Impact of July 8, 2013 storm on the City’s Sewer and Stormwater Systems. Staff Report. Available at: www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2013/pw/bgrd/backgroundfile-61363.pdf xviii RiverSides. 2016. Mission, Goals, and History. Available at: www.riversides.org/mission-goals-history xix RainGrid incorporated and separated from RiverSides in 2014. xx RiverSides. 2016. Mission, Goals, and History. Available at: www.riversides.org/mission-goals-history xxi RainGrid Systems, 2017. Available at: www.raingrid.com/stormwater-smartgrids xxii RainGrid. 2017. RainGrid Stormwater SmartGrids. A Guide for Smart, Decentralized Stormwater Management. Pp.6 xxiii Mills, C. 2013. Toronto’s July flood listed as Ontario’s most costly natural disaster. The Star. August 14, 2013. Available at: www.thestar.com/business/2013/08/14/july_flood_ontarios_most_costly_natural_disaster.html

22 | P a g e

xxiv RiverSides. 2017. Cities over a Barrel. Residential Stormwater Solutions. 2016 Automated Rain Barrel Pilot Project Summary Report. May 2017. Pp. 12. Available at: www.riversides.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/2016-Pilot-Summary-Report-2-June.pdf xxv Ibid. xxvi RiverSides. 2017. RiverSides Report. Automated Rain Barrels: Residential Case Studies. Pp. 51. Available at: www.riversides.org xxvii Ibid. xxviii RiverSides. 2016. Automated Rain Barrels. Available at: www.riversides.org/automated-rain-barrels xxix RiverSides. 2017. Cities over a Barrel. Residential Stormwater Solutions. 2016 Automated Rain Barrel Pilot Project Summary Report. May 2017. Pp. 12. Available at: www.riversides.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/2016-Pilot-Summary-Report-2-June.pdf xxx Ibid.

23 | P a g e

Story Four – Urban Forests in a Changing Climate

Urban Forest Associates Inc.

Introduction

Urban forests are a vital component of any healthy city. Trees, The City of Toronto has long recognized the importance of the both on public and private property, provide a multitude of urban forest, the benefits it provides, and its role in reducing benefits that improve the quality of life in the urban climate change impacts in its urban environment. environment. Urban forests can support a variety of environmental functions, provide a range of economic Over the past decade, the City of Toronto has improved tree- benefits, and make significant contributions to human health related policies, by-laws and guidelines to better support the and community well-beingii. protection and enhancement of its urban forest. In 2013, Toronto City Council approved the city’s first-ever Strategic A healthy urban forest is also critical to a city’s defense Forest Management Planiv with the goal of increasing forest against the impacts of climate change. Forests are responsible canopy cover to 40%. foriii:  Absorbing vast amounts of carbon dioxide and other pollutants from the air;  Preventing flooding by absorbing rainfall;  Cooling communities in extreme heat;  Protecting against strong wind during storms; and  Providing habitat for resident and migratory birds.

Table 1: Toronto’s Urban Forest - by the Numbersi Number of trees in Toronto Approximately 10.2 million Canopy cover 26.6 to 28% Canopy cover target 40%

Structural value Approximately $7.1 billion Figure 1 – Map of the City of Toronto’s greenspacev. Ecological services provided Valued at $28.2 million annually Carbon storage Valued at $25 million Planting trees and expanding forest canopy cover are considered key strategies for reducing climate change impacts in urban areasvi. However, Toronto’s urban trees and forests

24 | P a g e are vulnerable to climate change through shifts in tree habitat improve the urban forest and natural habitat in the Toronto suitability, changes in pests and diseases, temperature area as well as throughout southern Ontarioxii. fluctuations, and more frequent and severe extreme weather eventsvii. The risks of climate change are particularly high for trees located in cities as they are often already under stress from urbanizationviii.

In contrast, climate change can bring a range of ecological and economic benefits to forests and the forest industry. For example, warmer temperatures can increase the growth rate of some tree species, thus expanding the habitat for wildlife ix and lengthening the timber harvest season . Nevertheless, climate change poses new challenges, opportunities, and constraints to forest management. Scientific evidence indicates that the climate is changing and forest managers will need to consider these changes in daily and long-term Figure 2 – UFORA supports the regeneration of urban forests in Toronto neighborhoods through organizing community tree planting projectsxiii. planningx. Working directly to improve urban forests, UFORA has A small number of Canadian forest companies are explicitly observed first-hand the impacts of climate change on addressing climate vulnerability and change through Toronto’s trees and on the company’s ability to manage and adjustments to their operations and managementxi. One such maintain the health of Toronto’s forests. example is Urban Forest Associates Inc., a Toronto-based private urban forestry company that is taking action to reduce Over the past 10 years, staff at UFORA have observed the negative impacts of climate change while taking changes in climate variability and weather conditions across advantage of beneficial opportunities. all seasons. Their observations include:

Climate Change at Urban Forest Associates Inc.  Warmer winters;  Winter precipitation falling as rain instead of snow; Urban Forest Associates Inc. (or UFORA) is a small urban  Reduced precipitation in the winter and spring leading forestry consulting and contracting firm. Their work involves to drier soils; designing, installing and maintaining urban forest habitats.  Frosts and ground freezing occurring later in the fall The firm offers expertise on all aspects of urban tree care on season; both public and private properties, especially ravine forests.  Shallower ground freezing; Through their services, UFORA helps individual homeowners,  Changes in the distribution of rainfall; and municipalities, professionals and community organizations  Less predictable weather conditions, making project planning and budgeting more challenging.

25 | P a g e

UFORA witnesses first-hand how warmer temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns are having a direct impact on the distribution, survival rate and sustainability of Toronto’s trees. For example, the team at UFORA have observed changes in the ability of certain tree species to thrive. White spruce is a well-known species that is tolerant to a wide range of weather conditions; however, UFORA is now seeing a slower growth rate than in the past, with some trees dying on sites that are exposed to extreme drought conditions.

Changes in the distribution of certain tree species have also been observed. For example, black walnut was a relatively rare species in the Toronto area prior to the 1990’s, but

UFORA is now seeing it more frequently on landscapes. As well, prior to the year 2000 oak trees produced heavy crops of acorns every 3-5 years, but UFORA is now seeing abundant seed crops less often, and not on a predictable timeline.

Changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme storm events is also negatively impacting UFORA’s business operations and the viability of its tree planting events. On July 8, 2013 an intense rainstorm hit the City of Toronto, bringing 123mm of rainfall within a few hours. The record-breaking storm caused three of Figure 3 – Heavy rainfall during a July 2013 storm led to catastrophic slope UFORA’s projects to undergo severe slope failures and caused erosion on a residential property in Toronto. The storm washed out a retaining wall and all vegetation and soil. The cost to rebuild the slope was minor damage to four other projects; resulting in over $1 million in the range of several hundred thousand dollarsxiv. As a result, a more in repair costs, and further disturbances to our forests. engineered approach was used to rebuild the slope than originally planned in order to protect against future slope wash-outs. Higher risks of more frequent slope failure has led UFORA to consider the effects of water flow and vegetation cover on slopes Managing Toronto’s Urban Forest for Climate Change more cautiously. The company now installs full grass cover on sites that are at higher risk of erosion during heavy rainstorms, For UFORA, the risks of climate change on the integrity of its and implements water infiltration measures only on sites that are service offerings are apparent. In response, the company is not steeply sloped. Although grass cover competes with planted taking action by implementing a variety of adjustments to its stock, it provides necessary protection from slope erosion and forest management practices and business operations that aim to failure. increase resilience to climate change.

26 | P a g e

UFORA accepts that the climate will be different in the future Learning through first-hand observations is important for UFORA. when compared to historical conditions, leading the company to Staff monitor sites after planting to measure their rate of survival, manage Toronto’s forests in a different way. To plan for changes ability to thrive, and overall health status and then incorporate in climate, UFORA has adopted an adaptive management these observations into new site designs. For example, greater approach to inform its project planning and management incidences of flooding have led UFORA to incorporate strategies decisions. This approach, known as ‘learning while doing’, is a that enhance the water retention ability of vegetation to match process whereby decision-makers make adjustments in their increases in heavy rainfall. Specifically, the company has management of resources based on observations and new increased the amount of biomass on their sites by adding more information, even in the face of uncertaintyxv. Learning from woody and deciduous leaf material. This application enhances the experience and iteratively incorporating information into future natural absorption rate of water, adds organic matter to the soil, plans is considered an important approach to adapting forests and supports habitat for terrestrial species. UFORA has also and ecosystems to current and future climate changexvi. adjusted its financial budgets to allow for the preparation and maintenance of more unpredictable and extreme rainfall events

that can lead to erosion and damage to its sites. As an example, the costs of more frequent site inspections, maintenance and communication among staff and clients are now incorporated into

project budgets.

At the strategic planning level, UFORA applies a toolbox approach to project planning and management from which various treatments and practices are selected or combined to fit current

or anticipated weather conditions. The company no longer pre- schedules their annual work; instead, they apply very general timelines with room to prepare and adapt to unexpected changes

in weather conditions. In the past, the company would repeat work on certain projects or services at the same time every year. Now, they form a ‘rolling’ list of work that is scheduled according

to upcoming weather conditions.

Using information on long-term climate projectionsxviii, UFORA compares its list of plant and tree species to future climate conditions expected in the region. Their research indicates that Figure 4 – Adaptive management is a decision-based process that promotes flexible decision-making that can be adjusted as outcomes from most species native to the area today will continue to thrive in management actions and other events become better understoodxvii. the future. As a result, UFORA is maintaining the amount of native species that they currently plant, but monitoring health

27 | P a g e and growth rates while considering the use of selected species weather conditions in the past, such as spring tree planting and planted sources from more southern areas and reducing the events. However, many nurseries have not adjusted their delivery number of northern species where warranted. They are cautious schedules to suit the longer seasons; therefore, the company is about the introduction of new species as they have observed that somewhat constrained by the supply of plant stock for their some southern species, such as the Kentucky coffee-tree and planting initiatives. hackberry, are reproducing aggressively and could themselves In addition to the adjustments in forest management, UFORA become a threat to biodiversity. They have also observed the collaborates with other members and organizations within the spread of new invasive species, and/or increases in the rate of industry to increase awareness on the threat of climate change reproduction. and the urgent need to adapt. Stephen Smith, an ISA Certified In the past, UFORA has witnessed devastating loss and damage Arborist and Urban Forester at UFORA, is a board member at the to trees from extreme weather events. As the frequency and Forest Gene Conservation Association – a non-profit organization intensity of storms is expected to increase into the future, UFORA that supports research and dissemination of information to forest performs property site checks after wind events that reach managers on climate change impacts and adaptationxix. Staff at 70km/hr or greater. Staff assess tree damage and carry out UFORA also participate in conferences and workshops aimed at clean-up as necessary. During individual storm events of over providing information to the public and industry members on 60mm in rainfall, staff check sites that have steep slopes for adapting urban forest management practices to climate change. erosion and respond accordingly. Conclusion Realizing Economic Opportunities UFORA is a forestry firm that is showing the importance of urban Not only does UFORA’s adjustments in forest management work tree management in increasing resilience to climate change. By to protect their business operations from the impacts of current embracing flexibility in its management approach, UFORA can and future climate change, but it helps to take advantage of the continue to maintain its business operations and enhance the economic opportunities that arise from shifting climate regimes. health of Toronto’s urban forest, all in the face of climate change. For example, the company has shifted the start of their spring With a healthy forest, trees throughout Toronto’s neighborhoods season by 10 to 15 days earlier and the end of their fall season can continue to play a role in fighting climate change and helping later in the winter, often by an additional month. This provides the urban community adapt to its effects. the opportunity to hire more staff, extend the working season for existing staff, and increase revenue for the company by staying To learn more about Urban Forest Associates Inc., please in operation longer. Earlier spring melt also make it easier for the visit: www.ufora.ca company to undertake certain types of work that were limited by

28 | P a g e

End Notes i City of Toronto. 2013. Every Tree Counts: A Portrait of Toronto’s Urban Forest. Toronto, Ontario. Parks, Forestry and Recreation, Urban Forestry. Available at: www1.toronto.ca/City%20Of%20Toronto/Parks%20Forestry%20&%20Recreation/Urban%20Forestry/Files/pdf/E/every_tree_counts.pdf ii City of Toronto. 2013. Sustaining & Expanding the Urban Forest: Toronto’s Strategic Forest Management Plan. Toronto, Ontario. Parks, Forestry and Recreation, Urban Forestry. Available at: www1.toronto.ca/City%20Of%20Toronto/Parks%20Forestry%20&%20Recreation/Urban%20Forestry/Files/pdf/B/backgroundfile-55258.pdf iii Green Infrastructure Ontario Coalition. n.d. State of the Urban Forest in the Greater Toronto Area. Available at: www.greeninfrastructureontario.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2876-GTA-UrbanForest_REPORT-May27_web.pdf iv City of Toronto. 2013. Sustaining & Expanding the Urban Forest: Toronto’s Strategic Forest Management Plan. Toronto, Ontario. Parks, Forestry and Recreation, Urban Forestry. Available at: www1.toronto.ca/City%20Of%20Toronto/Parks%20Forestry%20&%20Recreation/Urban%20Forestry/Files/pdf/B/backgroundfile-55258.pdf v Kardan, O., P. Gozdyra, B. Misic, F. Moola, L. J. Palmer, T. Paus and M. G. Berman. 2015. Neighborhood greenspace and health in a large urban center. Scientific Reports, 5: 11610. vi Brandt, L., A. D. Lewis, R. Fahey, L. Scott, L. Darling and C. Swanston. 2016. A framework for adapting urban forests to climate change. Environmental Science & Policy, 66: 393-402. vii Clean Air Partnership. 2007. Climate Change Adaptation Options for Toronto’s Urban Forest. Available at: www.glslcities.org/wp- content/uploads/2015/09/Climate_Change_Adaptation_Options_for_Torontos_Urban_Forest_2007.pdf viii Canadian Climate Forum. 2016. Canada’s Urban Forests in a Changing Climate. Issue Paper #5. Spring 2016. Available at: www.climateforum.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/IP-5-final-en-2106-04-18-screen.pdf ix D’Orangeville, L., L. Duchesne, D. Houle, D. Kneeshaw, B. Côté and N. Pederson. 2016. Northeastern North America as a potential refugium for boreal forests in a warming climate. Science, 352(6292): 1452-1455. x Johnston, M., T. Williamson, A. Munson, A. Ogden, M. Moroni, R. Parsons, D. Price and J. Stadt. 2010. Climate change and forest management in Canada: impacts, adaptive capacity and adaptation options. A State of Knowledge report. Sustainable forest management network, Edmonton, Alberta. 54 pp. Available at: www.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/pubwarehouse/pdfs/31584.pdf xi Ibid. xii Urban Forest Associates Inc. Available at: www.ufora.ca xiii Photo courtesy of Urban Forest Associates Inc. xiv Photos courtesy of Stephen Smith, ISA Certified Arborist, Urban Forester at Urban Forest Associates Inc. xv Lee, K.N. 1999. Appraising Adaptive Management. Conservation Ecology, 3(2): 3. xvi Millar, C. I., N. L. Stephenson and S. L. Stephens. 2007. Climate Change and Forests of the Future: Managing in the Face of Uncertainty. Ecological Applications, 17(8): 2145-2151. xvii Department of Interior. 2015. Chapter 1: What is Adaptive Management? Available at: www.doi.gov/sites/doi.gov/files/migrated/ppa/upload/Chapter1.pdf xviii Sourced from Forest Gene Conservation Association. Available at: www.fgca.net xix Forest Gene Conservation Association. 2017. Available at: www.fgca.net/about

29 | P a g e

Story Five – Ontario’s Headwaters and a Changing Climate

Ontario Headwaters Institute

Introduction

Headwaters and their catchments play significant roles in Headwaters also help to regulate water flow and temperature as Ontario’s natural heritage, watersheds, and ecological integrityi. well as sediment and nutrient loads, which can influence the As a result, climate change impacts on headwaters are an health of downstream rivers and lakes. As well, headwater important area of research, education, and evolution of best catchments offer a higher convergence of forest and stream practices. habitat than larger watercourses downstream, providing an abundance of both terrestrial and aquatic insects that act as Headwaters and their catchments are often found at the outer important food sources for wildlife. Moreover, headwaters edges of watersheds and include: small streams; surface and provide niche habitats that are important for wildlife breeding and groundwater collection areas; areas of groundwater discharge rearing young, and act as important travel corridors for migrating v and upwelling; vernal pools; spring-fed ponds; and wetlandsii. wildlife, such as moose and forest-dwelling bats . Headwaters can emerge from forested wetlands, beaver impoundments, or elevated areas as varied as the sand and gravel of the Oak Ridges Moraine (see Figure 2) or the rocky outcrops of the Niagara Escarpment. Headwater streams are also influenced by the topography and geology of the surrounding landscape and have significant contributions to downstream characteristicsiii.

Figure 2 – The Oak Ridges Moraine is one of Ontario’s most extensive areas of contiguous upland headwater catchments. The Moraine forms the Figure 1 – Various types of headwater streams exist, such as those watershed divide between Lake Ontario and Lake Simcoe and provides cascading through forests or meandering through wetlandsiv. headwater to more than 30 riversvi.

30 | P a g e

Due to the density and scale of their biodiversity, headwaters are  A review of the Conservation Authorities Act; vulnerable to the impacts of human activities such as agriculture,  The implementation of the Great Lakes Protection Act; forestry, mining, urbanization, pollution, and population growthvii. and Unfortunately, these activities may act synergistically with climate  The implementation of the Co-ordinated Land Use change to alter Ontario’s aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Planning Review for the Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Increases in air and water temperature, decreases in ice and Plan, the Niagara Escarpment Plan, the Greenbelt Plan, snowpack, and alterations in the timing and amount of and the Growth Plan, including the development of a precipitation can impact ecosystems in a variety of waysviii. These watershed planning guidance document. include, but are not limited to: habitat availability; changes to phenology, species distribution and productivity; increased Initiatives to protect Ontario’s headwaters in a changing climate deposition of air pollutants; and altered soil and water chemistry. are also occurring at other levels. The Ontario Headwaters For example, warmer water temperatures are expected to shift Institute, for example, identifies climate change as a significant aquatic species ranges to the north, and many terrestrial species yet relatively un-examined challenge to headwaters, which harbor could be displaced or go extinct due to limits in drainage flows much of Ontario’s biodiversity, watersheds and receiving waters, and barriers due to habitat fragmentationix. such as the Great Lakes.

Climate change will impact both terrestrial and aquatic Tackling Climate Change: A Three-Pronged Approach ecosystems in the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River Basin, where more than 90% of Ontario residents live and workx. As a The Ontario Headwaters Institute (OHI) was founded in 2003 result, there may be significant ecological, cultural, social and following the water crisis in Walkerton, Ontarioxvi. The Institute economic implications to those living, working and benefitting grew out of an interest in addressing safe drinking water through from agriculture, forestry, mining, recreation and other sectors in a watershed approach, including headwater areas upstream of the Great Lakes Basinxi. In addition, more frequent and intense municipal water intakes. Today, OHI programs are centered on weather events, such as flooding and prolonged drought, could research, education and best practices, with the latter focused affect the health of natural heritage areas (see Box 1) and the primarily on provincial policy related to natural heritage, ecological goods and services available to societyxii. watershed management and land use planning in Ontario. Recent successful policy submissions (particularly those associated with Changes in climate will also affect natural heritage management. the Co-ordinated Land Use Planning Review) position the For example, current monitoring programs may need to be re- Institute as the leading not-for-profit organization in Ontario examined to ensure they include climate sensitive indicators working on both headwater protection and improvements to the relevant to expected changes in climatexiii. In response to these provincial framework for watershed managementxvii. challenges, the Ontario government is pursuing several initiatives, including: While urban and rural development continue to present direct challenges to Ontario’s headwaters, the OHI expects that climate  Science and research reports on the vulnerability of change will have more systemic and far-reaching impacts to small aquatic ecosystems to climate changexiv; streams, the natural heritage in their catchments, and their  Implementing the new wetland strategyxv; downstream ecosystemsxviii. The OHI is already seeing the effects

31 | P a g e of changes in temperature, the chemical composition of Box 1: What is Natural Heritage? precipitation and altered weather norms on aquatic and terrestrial habitats. The Province of Ontario defines a natural heritage system as: “A system made up of natural heritage features and areas, and linkages Observations and trends of concern include: intended to provide connectivity (at the regional or site level) and  Increased temperatures in cold, cool, and warm-water support natural processes which are necessary to maintain biological streams; and geological diversity, natural functions, viable populations of  Degraded coastal wetlands through reduced water levels indigenous species and ecosystems. These systems can include natural heritage features and areas, federal and provincial parks and and increased water temperatures in the Great Lakes; conservation reserves, other natural heritage features, lands that  Altered stream flows resulting in erosion from flooding have been restored or have the potential to be restored to a natural events and reduced water availability for local species and state, areas that support hydrologic functions and working human use during low water events; landscapes that enable ecological functions to continuexix.  Increased potential for forest fires and resulting changes to stream and groundwater flow;  Changes to Ontario’s ecological integrity through altered biodiversity from migrating flora and fauna; Research  Impacts on plants due to changes in the chemical composition of precipitation, such as higher pH levels; and The OHI’s research efforts focus on science, policy and  Increased levels of harmful toxins caused by algae in performance related to natural heritage, headwaters and streams and lakes due to warmer water temperatures. watershed health, with biodiversity and climate change as common threads. In a 2016 paper called Protecting Ontario’s Headwatersxxi, the OHI provided an overview of headwaters in Ontario, how climate change is threatening their integrity, and the need to protect headwaters from development and climate change, particularly in Contiguous Upland Headwater Catchments (see Box 2).

Education

To help Ontarians understand and better appreciate the role of Figure 3 – Changes in temperature and water levels in the Great Lakes are headwaters and the threat presented by climate change, the OHI contributing to the production of blue-green algae, prompting health has developed three programs: OHMapping, Headwater Hikes, xx warnings to residents and tourists . and its own YouTube channel. The OHI is addressing the threat of climate change in each of their three program areas: research, education and best OHMapping: The Institute calls this program “superficially practices. meaningful”, in other words, a simple yet powerful visualization of headwater conditions.

32 | P a g e

and into Lindsay. Headwater Hikes are designed to encourage public awareness of the role of headwaters in local biodiversity Box 2: Contiguous Upland Headwater Catchments (CUHC) and water resource protection. Each hike contains maps and Most watersheds contain large portions of their headwaters in areas information on the landscape, natural history and watershed that the OHI has termed Contiguous Upland Headwater Catchments features that users can print and use at their own convenience. or CUHCs (pronounced ‘kooks’). CUHCs, represented by the blue circle in the image below, constitute the drainage areas of first- and second-order streams that connect in the upstream areas of any watershed.

The Institute believes CUHCs represent the best opportunity to protect the regional natural heritage and ecological integrity in both headwaters and throughout a watershedxxii.

Stream definitions:

 First-order streams (1) contain no tributaries.

 Second-order streams (2) begin where two first-order streams converge.

 Third-order streams (3) start where two second-order streams meet (third-order streams are not included in the OHI concept of CUHCsxxiii).

Figure 4 – Watercourses in the OHMapping tool are colour-coded by stream order and depict the boundaries of CUHCs, which help readers visualize headwater conditionsxxiv. OHMapping is an online tool that provides a series of maps that depict local watersheds (see Figure 4). By colour-coding stream OHI YouTube Channel: The newest OHI initiative is a channel orders and labeling boundaries of first- and second-order on the video-sharing website, YouTube. The OHI’s YouTube catchments, OHMapping provides readers with a simple portrayal channel features a series of educational pieces, including: of the state of the natural heritage and the extent of human impact upon headwaters in five watersheds throughout south-  Five educational PowerPoint presentations; central Ontario.  A time-lapse video of the four seasons of a watershed;  Two 90-second vignettes, one on the convergence of Headwater Hikes: This program comprises eleven self-guided three small streams and one on the importance of the hikes spanning St. Catharines in the Niagara Region, Caledon in spring freshet to headwaters; and the Greater Toronto Area, and across the Oak Ridges Moraine  A video on climate change that is currently in production.

33 | P a g e

 Ensuring adequate resources for watershed planning, management, enforcement and monitoring with timely public access to data; and  Developing protocols to protect CUHCs.

Areas in which past suggestions have been incorporated into provincial initiatives are outlined in Table 1.

Table 1: OHI Suggestions in Policy

Strategic Policy Document Measures advocated by the OHI

Ensuring the inclusion of watershed Great Lakes Strategy Figure 5 – A still photo from a video on the Spring Freshet featured on the management in the policy vision. OHI’s YouTube Channelxxv. Submitting targets for natural heritage protection based in part on a federal Great Lakes Protection Act Best Practices guideline titled ‘How Much Habitat is xxvi Enough?’ At the OHI, ‘best practices’ focuses on efforts to enhance natural heritage protection and watershed management through Securing targets that retain natural improved policies and programs. For example, while Ontario has heritage in new development, as well as demonstrated leadership in protecting watersheds (e.g. on the amount of impervious surface area allowed in these areas. establishment of Conservation Authorities), the OHI has identified a number of policy gaps and areas where new policies are needed. A few examples include: Obtaining commitments to:  Setting targets for natural heritage protection on a  Require watershed and sub- watershed planning prior to Co-ordinated Land Use watershed basis across Ontario through, for example, a land-use permitting; and Planning Review reinforced Ontario Natural Heritage Reference Manual;  Develop a watershed planning  Standardizing key aspects of both the Ontario Natural guidance document to establish Heritage Reference Manual and Conservation Authority consistency across agencies involved in watershed guidelines required under Ontario Regulation 97/04 (i.e. management. Development, Interference with Wetlands and Alterations to Shorelines and Watercourses); Subsequently appointed member to a  Establishing triggers to require action based on watershed guidance document advisory exceedances to the Provincial Water Quality Objectives; group.

34 | P a g e

Conclusion

By identifying, studying and addressing the impacts of climate change in Ontario’s headwaters, the OHI is working to both seek improved natural heritage protection and improved watershed management – not just for today, but for a future shaped by a changing climate.

While many climate change headlines focus on extreme weather, greenhouse gas reduction, green energy and complete communities, the Institute hopes more people will look upstream and appreciate the contribution of Ontario’s headwaters in protecting the region’s ecological integrity and the economic and social vitality they provide.

To learn more about the Ontario Headwaters Institute,

please visit: www.ontarioheadwaters.ca

35 | P a g e

End Notes i Ontario Headwaters Institute. 2016. Protecting Ontario’s Headwaters. Extending the Co-ordinate Land Use Planning Review to preserve Ontario’s natural heritage, watersheds, and ecological integrity. Available at: www.ontarioheadwaters.ca/wp- content/uploads/2016/11/Protecting-Ontarios-Headwaters.pdf ii Ibid. iii University of New Hampshire. 2015. Natural Resources: Headwater Streams. Available at: www.extension.unh.edu/Headwater-Streams iv Ibid. v Ibid. vi Oak Ridges Trail Association. n.d. The Oak Ridges Moraine. Available at: www.oakridgestrail.org/moraine vii Toronto Region Conservation Authority and Credit Valley Conservation. 2014. Evaluation, Classification and Management of Headwater Drainage Features Guidelines. TRCA Approval July 2013 (Finalized January 2014). Available at: www.creditvalleyca.ca/wp- content/uploads/2014/02/HDFA-final.pdf viii Dove-Thomson, D., C. Lewis, P. A. Gray, C. Chu and W. I. Dunlop. 2011. A Summary of the Effects of Climate Change on Ontario’s Aquatic Ecosystems. Climate Change Research Report CCRR-11. Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources. Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, Canada. Available at: http://files.ontario.ca/environment-and-energy/aquatics-climate/stdprod_088243.pdf ix Environmental Protection Agency. 2008. Climate Change Effects on Stream and River Biological Indicators: A Preliminary Analysis. National Centre for Environmental Assessment. Office of Research and Development, Washington, DC. Available at: www.cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=190304 x Government of Ontario. 2017. About Ontario. Available at: www.ontario.ca/page/about-ontario xi Taylor, M. E., P. A. Gray and K. Schiefer. 2006. Helping Canadians Adapt to Climate Change in the Great Lakes Coastal Zone. The Great Lakes Geographer, 13(1): 14-25. xii Government of Ontario. 2016. Minister’s Five Year Report on Lake Simcoe: To protect and restore the ecological health of the Lake Simcoe watershed. Available at: www.ontario.ca/page/ministers-five-year-report-lake-simcoe-protect-and-restore-ecological-health-lake-simcoe- watershed xiii Chu, C. 2011. Potential Effects of Climate Change and Adaptive Strategies for Lake Simcoe and the Wetlands and Streams Within the Watershed. Climate Change Research Report CCRR-21. Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources. Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, Canada. Available at: http://files.ontario.ca/environment-and-energy/aquatics-climate/stdprod_093347.pdf xiv For example: Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Inland Aquatic Ecosystems in the Great Lakes Basin, Ontario. Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Science and Research Branch, Peterborough, Ontario. Climate Change Research Report CCRR-43. Available at: www.climateontario.ca/MNR_Publications/CCRR-43.pdf xv Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, 2017. Conserving Wetlands to Help Fight Climate Change: Protecting Diverse Habitats Across Ontario. News Release. July 20, 2017. Available at: www.news.ontario.ca/mnr/en/2017/07/conserving-wetlands-to-help-fight-climate- change.html xvi In 2000, runoff from heavy rainfall containing harmful pollutants contaminated local drinking water in Walkerton, Ontario exposing residents to bacteria. More information is available at: www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/the-walkerton-tragedy/article4164697/ xvii Ontario Headwaters Institute. n.d. About. Available at: www.ontarioheadwaters.ca/about xviii Personal Communication with Andrew McCammon. February 9, 2017.

36 | P a g e

xix Ontario Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing. 2014. Provincial Policy Statement. Available at: www.mah.gov.on.ca/Page10679.aspx xx Photo courtesy of Dr. J. M. Reutter, Ohio Sea Grant and Stone Laboratory. xxi Ontario Headwaters Institute. 2016. Protecting Ontario’s Headwaters – Extending the Co-ordinate Land Use Planning Review to preserve Ontario’s natural heritage, watersheds, and ecological integrity. Available at: www.ontarioheadwaters.ca/wp- content/uploads/2016/11/Protecting-Ontarios-Headwaters.pdf xxii Ibid. xxiii By scientific definition, headwaters include third-order streams. However, the OHI excludes third-order streams from both their OHMapping program and in recommendations for certain policy initiatives and focuses on first- and second-order streams which require a more sensitive policy approach. xxiv Ontario Headwaters Institute. n.d. OHMapping. Available at: www.ontarioheadwaters.ca/mapping xxv OHI’s YouTube channel is accessible at: www.youtube.com/channel/UC--cVXQm2rF0iuivpv-2-Ug xxvi Environment Canada, 2013. How Much Habitat is Enough? Third Edition. Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario. Available at: www.ec.gc.ca/nature/default.asp?lang=En&n=E33B007C-1

37 | P a g e