APRIL 2015 Modeling Tidal Freshwater Marsh Sustainability in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta Under a Broad Suite of Potential Future Scenarios Kathleen M. Swanson1,2, Judith Z. Drexler*2, Christopher C. Fuller3, and David H. Schoellhamer2 Volume 13, Issue 1 | April 2015 doi: doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2015v13iss1art3 * Corresponding author:
[email protected] 1 Current address: San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, 1657 Rollins Rd. Burlingame, CA 94010 USA 2 U.S. Geological Survey, California Water Science Center, Sacramento, CA 95819 USA 3 U.S. Geological Survey, National Research Program, Menlo Park, CA 94025 USA ABSTRACT In this paper, we report on the adaptation and appli- was increased to 133 cm and 179 cm, respectively. cation of a one-dimensional marsh surface eleva- Marshes situated in high-energy zones were margin- tion model, the Wetland Accretion Rate Model of ally more resilient than those in low-energy zones Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER), to explore the because of their higher inorganic sediment supply. conditions that lead to sustainable tidal freshwater Overall, the results from this modeling exercise sug- marshes in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. We gest that marshes at the upstream reaches of the defined marsh accretion parameters to encapsulate Delta—where SLR may be attenuated—and high ener- the range of observed values over historic and mod- gy marshes along major channels with high inorganic ern time-scales based on measurements from four sediment accumulation rates will be more resilient to marshes in high and low energy fluvial environments global SLR in excess of 88 cm over the next century as well as possible future trends in sediment sup- than their downstream and low-energy counterparts.