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Assessment of Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Lagoons -{Ase Studies in Japan and Thailand

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Assessment of Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Lagoons -{Ase Studies in Japan and Thailand Assessment of Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Lagoons -{ase Studies in Japan and Thailand- Yukihiro HIRAI*I, Tetsuo SATOH*2, Charlchai tANAVUnx3 Abstract Global warming is one of the most serious environmental issues of the present day. The average temperature is predicted to rise 1.7'C to 3.8t by the end of the next centu4f. Sea level is also projected to rise 15 cm to 90 cm during the same period. In this paper the authors first present an example of the assessment of impacts of sea level rise of the lagoons in Japan. We also present the common methodology of vulnerability assessment and an original procedure to assess the impact of sea level rise on the Songkhla Lake in southern Thailand. Following this procedure we describe the natural and socioeconomic characteristics of the Songkhla Lake, and we identify major factors that control the development of each natural region. It is most important to clarify the natural and socioeconomic systems and also to identify the development factors at each natural region for the proper assessment of the impact of sea level rise. various aspects depending on the natural and I. Introduction socioeconomic conditions at coastal area of each lagoon. Major thirty-four coastal lagoons in The study on Land-Ocean Interaction in the Japan were grouped into five types (namely from Coastal Zone (LOICZ) started in 1993 as one of Type-A to Type-E) in terms of "artificial littoral the Core Projects of IGBP (International Geo- shoreline" and "intensive land use in littoral low- sphere Biosphere Programme). The objective of land" (Figure I ). LOICZ project is to predict the change of coastal The littoral lowland of type-A lagoon remains environment by global warming in the near almost natural without any artificial structure or future, and also to develop further sustainable land use. This type of lagoon is very valuable in ways of utilization of coastal areas. Four major Japan and important especially for the protection fields of LOICZ research are proposed as follows of wild waterfowl. The Lake Kucharo, for in- (Yonekura et al., 1998): stance, has been registered since 1989 as one of ( 1) Effects of changes in external forcing or the designated lakes of Ramsar Convention. In boundary conditions on coastal fluxes. the littoral lowlands of type-8, the rate of arti- (2) Coastal biogeomorphology and global ficial littoral shoreline is very low, but aboat 40Vo change. of the area is used for grassland. In the case (3) Carbon fluxes and trace gas emissions. of type-A and -B lagoons, few environmental (4) Economic and social impacts of global changes will be observed when sea level rises change on coastal systems. several tens of centimeters to 1 m. This study focuses on the fourth domain, i.e. to Littoral shorelines of type-C and -D lagoons forecast how the responses of coastal systems to are partly artificial and urban or industrial land global change affect the habitation and usage of use is found in the littoral lowlands. Urbaniza- coastal environments. Hirai (1998), one of the tion has been taking place rapidly for the last two authors, has discussed the impacts of sea level rise or three decades. In the process of development on the coastal lagoons in Japan and presented planning around these types of lagoons, it is nec- strategies against their responses. In that discus- essary to consider carefully the influences of lake sion, he emphasized that the impact would have level rise caused by sea level rise. *r Department of Geography, Faculty of Education, Ehime University, Matsuyama, Japan. *2 Department of Geography, Kom azawa University, Tokyo, Japan. *3 Faculty of National Resources, Prince of Songkhla University, Hat Yai, Thailand 33 Regional Views No. 12 1999 （ Ｓ ０） 目 ∞ 〓 〓 ｏ 日 ∞ ■ 】 ｏ 〓口 ＯＥ 鉤 “ η 目 重 日 』 ｃ 』 ０ 目 Ｃ ” Ｃ 日 く 目 の ｃ ｅ ョ 』 ３ 。 ε ｏ ∽ つ ２ 。 ０ 目 “ Ｊ １ 。 」 ｏ ｏ 撼 。 “ 0 l0 m 30 .{o 50 60 70 8[) 90 100 Rate of Artificial Shoreline(%) Figure 1. Relationship between "artificial 511on1 ghslshine" md "intensive land use in littoral lowland" of lagoons in Japan Source: Hirai (1998) Type-E lagoons are transformed artificially to the greatest extent, and the littoral lowlands are II. Methodology of vulnerability assess- intensively utilized,. Almost all the littoral shore- ment of the impacts of sea level rise line is artificially embanked with shore protec- tions, and urban land use is predominant. In the 1. Common methodology of the vulnerability case of this type of lagoons, the impact of sea level assessment by IPCC rise on the littoral lowland will be immense, caus- The IPCC common methodology was devel- ing serious damage to these areas. oped by Coastal Management Subgroup of IPCC For the sake of appropriate assessment of the in order to promote vulnerability assessment in impacts of sea level rise on coastal lagoons, it is every country. Aiming at making assessment of most important to clarify the natural and socio- vulnerability on both physical and human aspects, economic characteristics of each lagoon and its the common methodology consists of seven steps littoral lowland. In this paper, the authors first as shown in Figure 2 (Center for Global Environ- show the common methodology of vulnerability mental Research, 1996). According to this meth- assessment developed by the IPCC Coastal Zone odology, a case study area is selected and the Management Subgroup. And an original proce- scenario for sea level rise and climatic change is dure is presented to assess the impacts of sea level presumed at the first step. Based on the data of rise on the coastal lagoons in developing coun- natural and socioeconomic systems (step-2), rele- tries. In this process, emphasis is laid on the vant development factors should be identified identification of development factors at each litto- (step-3). And the assessment of physical changes ral zone. Natural systems and socioeconomic and natural system responses will be conducted as systems in lacustrine lowlands are delineated to the forth step. identify the relevant development factors, 2s Such physical changes may be recognized as shown in the case of the Songkhla Lake in south- inundation or displacement of lowlands, coastal ern Thailand. erosion, intensification of coastal flooding, in- 34 Assessment of Impacts of Sea Level Rise (Hirai et al.) LERATED STE‖ 酬H皿胤 i器W認暇脚翻器獅gにξ ▼ DEttNEAT10N OF CASE ttDY STEP‐ 2 NATURAL nS¬ いl DATA ― C卜 ECONOMiC,ぼ圧M DATA ▼ STEPo3 1DE卜 1日CAl10N OF離 圧Vノ い DEVELOPME卜 FACrORS 「 「 「 ▼ STEP4 篤瞬響肌」轟 裂織菖S =甦 ▼ わ:LP‐5 FORMULAnON OF RESPONSEttRA薦 IES ▼ 籠 P‐6 ASSESSING OF WLNERABIL「 Y AND lr爛 庭RPRETAnON OF RESULTS ▼ 鉦 P‐7 1D側 日α¬ON OF NEEDS AND ACl10NS Figure 2. Common methodology of vulnerability assessment by IPCC Source: IPCC (1992) crease in salinity at estuary, salt water intrusion, area (step-3). change of tide, change of sedimentation patterns, Then the study area is divided into some homo- decrease in the amount of light reaching sea geneous zones through integration of the data on bottom, and so on. On the other hand, the natural and socioeconomic systems (step-4). responses of natural system are supposed to be After that, development factors in each zone will some impact on local ecosystems such as wet- be identified and the impacts of sea level rise will lands, tidal flats, mangroves, and coral reefs in the be estimated (step-5). Then the assessment of the coastal zones. Such physical changes and re- impact on the whole lagoon area will be made by sponses of the natural system heavily depend on the synthesis of assessment at each zone (step-6). the natural or socioeconomic conditions of each Finally this procedure is supposed to be applied to lagoon or each coastal zone. That is to s&y, it is other coastal lagoon areas (step-7). In this study, very important to identify the relevant develop- we discuss mainly step-3 and -4 of the procedure. ment factors at each lagoon or coastal zone. IfI. Natural systems in the lacustrine low- 2. Original procedure of assessment of the im- lands of the Songkhla Lake pacts of sea level rise on coastal lagoons Considering the importance of identifying rele- 1. Geomorphological conditions vant development factors, the authors show an It is very effective to know local geomorpholog- original procedure to assess the impacts of sea ical conditions not only for estimation of the area level rise on coastal lagoon (Figure 3). This subject to inundation or erosion caused by sea procedure consists of seven steps that start with level rise, but also for discussion about the rela- collecting both general and detailed data on phys- tionship between natural and socioeconomic sys- ical and human conditions at a study area (step- 1 tems. In this study we classified our study area and step-2). The data on natural system is ar- with such geomorphological units as follows; ranged from geomorphological and hydrological beach, erosional cliff, swamp, dune, beach ridge, viewpoints. In the same w&y, the data on socio- littoral lowland, delta, Holocene lacustrine ter- economic system is analyzed in relation to the race, Pleistocene marine terrace, tower karst and land use pattern and water use conditions of the hill or mountain. Two kinds of remote sensing ―- 35 -一 Regional Views No. 12 1999 Step-1 Collectingof basic data on the case study area (Remote Sensing Images such as LANDSAT, SPOT, JERS, Geomorphological Map, NavigationChart, Land Use Map, General Statistics) Step-2 Coliectingof cietaiiedciata on the case stuciy area ndMap, Detailed Statistic,s ) I *analysis of the data,Field Survey Natural Systems Socioeconomic Systems a,Geomorphological Conditions ( t- a.
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