Energy Systems Analysis
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ESA - Energy Systems Analysis A General Information Systems Approach to Environmental and Economic Cost & Benefit Assessment by Klaus Illurn and Per Alex Snrrensen Contractor: PlanEnergi Aps Jyllandsgade 44 Dk-9520 Skerrping, Denmark Contract no. XVII/4.1030/AL/33/96/DK Final report August 1997 DISCLAIMER Portions of this document may be illegible electronic image products. Images are produced from the best available original document. Contents 1. Introduction 1 2. Methodology 2 2.1 A Comprehensive Energy Information System 2 2.2 Multi-Scenario Databases 3 2.3 Energy Systems Analysis for the Technological and Economic Assessment of Alternative Development Programmes 5 2.4 Transparency and Tangibility 6 3. Tasks Accomplished 7 3.1 Preparation of Material 7 3.2 Preparation and Holding of the International Workshop 8 3.3 The Founding of a European Network for Cooperation in Energy Systems Analysis 9 3.4 The Development and Implementation of Additional Database Management, Systems Analysis, and Documentation Facilities 10 4. Dissemination of Results 11 5. Conclusion 12 Annex A: Working group members 13 Annex B: The International workshop: Invitation and programme 14 Annex C: Workshop participants 19 Annex D: Diagrams and maps prepared for the international workshop 24 Annex E: Energy Systems Analysis by means of SESAM - the Sustainable Energy Systems Analysis Model, by Klaus Illum (separate volume) Annex F: Summary (separate paper) 1. Introduction The aim of the ESA project is to provide regional and local energy planning agents and their consultants with a general method for the setting up of energy information systems for the technological , environmental, and economic analysis of alternative scenarios for energy systems development. In particular such energy information systems are to facilitate the objective assessment and documentation of the benefits to be gained from further utilization of renewable energy sources as well as the costs to be met. The method used in the ESA project is named SESAM - the Sustainable Energy Systems Analysis Model. On the one hand, SESAM is a method for the description of comprehensive energy systems and the computer-supported registration of data in multi-scenario databases. On the other, it is an advanced system of computer programs which serve to deduce the information derivable from the data contained the database. The programs compute year by year the future fuel consumption rates, emission rates, and economic costs to be expected as the consequences of the implementation of different investment programmes or energy planning strategies. The first tasks to be accomplished in the ESA project were: - the preparation of material for demonstration, seminars and courses - the preparation and holding of a seminar on energy systems analysis - the establishing of a European network - the ESA network - for cooperation in energy systems analysis for sustainable development - the further development of SESAM database management facilities and programmes for the presentation of computational results These tasks have been accomplished in the project carried out under the ESA project contract fulfilled as described in this report. Hereupon, the project will be continued within the framework of the ESA network which shall serve to support cooperation in the accomplishing of energy projects and educational programmes between institutions and persons engaged in energy planning. The next ESA workshop will take place in Liblice in the Czech Republic October 9 - 10 1997. 1 2. Methodology The aim of energy systems analysis as a professional discipline is to provide consistent answers to questions concerning practical ways and means to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels and the accompanying CO, emission. For this purpose, a rational, methodological approach to the description and analysis of comprehensive energy systems is required. A general methodology, applicable to all the different local, regional and national energy systems in Europe, must be based upon a general method for the identification and description of energy systems. As regards the technological description of energy systems, the taxonomy and terminology of such a method must reflect a thermodynamically appropriate division of the energy system as a whole into subsystems and technological entities. 2.1 A Comprehensive Energy Information System The SESAM model provides a methodological framework for the registration of all energy system data used by energy planners in a database structured in accordance with a generally applicable integrated energy systems concept. Formally, the model is a language - like a high-level programming language - in which system description and system development statements are made in the form of commented tables, records and registers. When a complete database for a particuIar energy system has been set up, the information required for energy planning decisions can be readily deduced and documented by means of the SESAM programs: the programs unfold the information imbedded in the database by computing the future fuel consumption rates, the emission rates and the economic costs which follow from the assumptions made in the specifications of the different scenarios for the future development. Furthermore, the many display and documentation programs contained in the model help the user to gain insight into the behaviour of prospective energy systems which may be structurally very different from those of today, in 2 particular systems in which renewable energy sources, utilized in efficiently regulated energy conversion stations, play a major role. Thus, when a SESAM model has been set up, it allows the planning authorities to examine any number of relevant investment programmes and to assess the environmental and economic costs and benefits of a wide spectrum of different strategies for the future development of the energy system. Through this search for the best options, new opportunities may be uncovered. The SESAM model thus provides the database facilities and the computational means required for the objective specification and consistent analysis of energy systems in transition from their present states towards future states in which resources are utilized more efficiently and renewable energy sources cover a substantial part of the energy supply. It can be used not only as a planning tool but also as an educational facility for the experimental study of energy systems. A particular SESAM model representing the energy system of a local community or the energy systems within a certain geographical region should be viewed as an information system maintained by energy planners to provide the information needed for well-founded energy policy decisions. 2.2 Multi-Scenario Databases A particular SESAM model of a local, regional or national energy system consists of a database together with the system of SESAM programs, which perform the computational analysis of the information contained in the database. A SESAM database comprises a number of documents specifying the technical, structural, operational, and behavioral properties of the end-use system, the energy conversion and transmission system, and the system of energy sources. Also economic cost data for all the technical units, the transmission and distribution networks, the energy saving measures to be undertaken, etc. are included in the database. Programs are provided to assist the users in the setting up of a database. Furthermore, automatic database-management routines serve to facilitate the selection at run-time of data to be used in different scenario computations. These routines also ensure that all files and documents produced by the programs as the result of scenario computations are supplied with the information required to identify the corresponding input data. 3 The following energy systems properties are described in the different database documents : - Qualitative technical specijkations of all the existing and potential future system components: - energy conversion units (such as engines, boilers, heat pumps, electrolytic converters); - energy sources (fuels, windmills, photovoltaic panels, hydropower stations); - the different types of buildings found in the area; - electrical appliances; - vehicles; - thermal industrial processes. - Specifications of the geographical structuring of the energy system in question: the identification of the geographical domains, local systems and districts into which the system is subdivided. - Quantitative data specifying: - the quantities of energy consuming hardware: the numbers and floor areas of buildings of different types; the number of different types of electrical appliances in use by different consumer categories; the number of vehicles of different types; etc.; - the number and capacities of renewable energy sources of different types (windmills, photovoltaic panels, available biomass fuel resources); - industrial production volumes. - Behavioral data specifying consumption behaviour and service demands influencing energy demand. - Specifications of present and future energy conversion stations assembled from available energy conversion units. - Specifications of the heat supply structure, i.e. which energy conversion stations serve to supply heat to the different buildings in the different districts. - Specifications of operational strategies for the regulation of power and heat production in the different conversion stations. Each database document may contain a large number of records in which