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Turkey As a Transit Country and Energy Hub: the Link to Its Foreign Policy Aims

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Turkey As a Transit Country and Energy Hub: the Link to Its Foreign Policy Aims Forschungsstelle Osteuropa Bremen Arbeitspapiere und Materialien No. 118 – December 2011 Turkey as a Transit Country and Energy Hub: The Link to Its Foreign Policy Aims Ksenia Krauer-Pacheco Forschungsstelle Osteuropa an der Universität Bremen Klagenfurter Straße 3 • 28359 Bremen • Germany phone +49 421 218-69600 • fax +49 421 218-69607 http://www.forschungsstelle.uni-bremen.de Arbeitspapiere und Materialien – Forschungsstelle Osteuropa, Bremen Working Papers of the Research Centre for East European Studies, University of Bremen No. 118: Ksenia Krauer-Pacheco Turkey as a Transit Country and Energy Hub: The Link to Its Foreign Policy Aims December 2011 ISSN: 1616-7384 About the Author Ksenia Krauer-Pacheco completed her MA in International Relations: Global Governance and Social Theory at the University of Bremen and Jacobs University Bremen in summer 2011. She has worked as a research assistant at the Research Centre for East European Studies at the University of Bremen and is currently an intern at the European Academy in Berlin. This working paper is based on her MA Thesis. Acknowledgements I am very grateful to Heiko Pleines and Andreas Heinrich for giving me the opportunity to publish this work, as well as for their expert advice and invaluable comments during the creation of this working pa- per. I would also like to thank the colleagues at the Research Centre for East European Studies for their support in the language and style editing and the layout of this text. As always, I am endlessly thankful to my husband Thomas and my parents Natalia and Arturo for their constant support and motivation in all my academic projects. This working paper has been produced within the research project ‘Internal discourses and foreign pol- icy-making in the Caspian region. Export pipelines, geopolitics and cultural orientation in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan’, which is being conducted by the Research Centre for East European Studies at the University of Bremen from October 2011 until December 2013 with financial support from the Volkswagen Foundation. Editor: Andreas Heinrich Language editing: Benjamin Law Layout/typesetting: Matthias Neumann Cover based on a work of art by Nicholas Bodde Opinions expressed in publications of the Research Centre for East European Studies are solely those of the authors. This publication may not be reprinted or otherwise reproduced—entirely or in part—without prior consent of the Re- search Centre for East European Studies or without giving credit to author and source. © Forschungsstelle Osteuropa, Bremen 2011 Forschungsstelle Osteuropa Publikationsreferat Klagenfurter Str. 3 28359 Bremen – Germany phone: +49 421 218-69600 fax: +49 421 218-69607 e-mail: [email protected] internet: http://www.forschungsstelle.uni-bremen.de Content Acronyms ..............................................................................................................................................................5 1 Introduction .........................................................................................................................................................7 2 Analytical Framework ........................................................................................................................................9 2.1 Geopolitics and Energy Geopolitics ..........................................................................................9 2.2 Energy and Energy Transit as Power Instruments in Foreign Policy .................................10 2.3 Regions, Regional Powers and Pivotal States ........................................................................ 12 3 Turkey’s Main Foreign Policy Aims............................................................................................................. 15 3.1 General Principles of Turkey’s New Foreign Policy ............................................................. 15 3.2 Foreign Policy Aims in the Region ..........................................................................................17 3.2.1 The South Caucasus ........................................................................................................17 3.2.2 Central Asia .....................................................................................................................18 3.2.3 The Middle East ...............................................................................................................19 3.3 Foreign Policy Aims vis-à-vis the EU ......................................................................................21 3.4 Foreign Policy Aims vis-à-vis Russia ...................................................................................... 22 4 Energy Context and Turkey’s Geostrategic Position as a Transit Country ....................................... 25 4.1 Europe’s Energy Context .......................................................................................................... 25 4.2 Turkey’s Geostrategic Position and Role as a Transit Country .......................................... 27 5 Turkey’s Energy Transit Options and Energy Strategy ............................................................................31 5.1 Turkey’s Pipeline Options ..........................................................................................................31 5.1.1 The Caspian Option ........................................................................................................31 5.1.2 The Middle Eastern Option .......................................................................................... 33 5.1.3 The Russian Option ....................................................................................................... 34 5.1.4 Pipelines from Turkey to Europe ................................................................................. 35 5.1.5 Internal Turkish Pipelines ............................................................................................ 37 5.2 Turkey’s Energy Strategy .......................................................................................................... 38 6 Assessment of the Link Between Turkey’s Energy and Foreign Policies .............................................41 6.1 Energy Strategy in the Geopolitical Context of the Regional Energy Dynamics ............41 6.2 Implementation of the Energy Strategy ...................................................................................41 6.3 Consistency of Turkey’s Energy Strategy with its Main Foreign Policy Aims ................ 43 6.3.1 The EU .............................................................................................................................. 44 6.3.2 The South Caucasus and Central Asia ........................................................................ 45 6.3.3 The Middle East .............................................................................................................. 46 6.3.4 Russia ................................................................................................................................ 46 6.4 Short and Long Term Sustainability ....................................................................................... 47 6.5 Challenges to Turkey’s Energy Strategy ................................................................................. 48 6.5.1 Internal Challenges to Turkey’s Energy Strategy ..................................................... 48 6.5.2 External Challenges to Turkey’s Energy Strategy .................................................... 49 7 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................................................... 53 Bibliography ....................................................................................................................................................... 55 Annex ...................................................................................................................................................................61 Recent English-Language Publications of the Research Centre for East European Studies .................................................................................. 65 English-Language Newsletters of the Research Centre for East European Studies .................................................................................. 66 Acronyms AIOC Azerbaijan International Operating Company AKP Justice and Development Party bcm billion cubic meters BSEC Black sea Economic Cooperation organization BTC Co. Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan Pipeline Company BTC Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline BTE Baku–Tbilisi–Erzurum pipeline CIS Commonwealth of Independent States CSCP Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform EU European Union IEA International Energy Agency ILSA Iran-Libya Sanctions Act ITGI Interconnector Turkey–Greece–Italy LNG Liquefied natural gas NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NGP Nabucco Gas Pipeline consortium OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries PKK Kurdistan Workers’ Party RSCT regional security complex theory SCPC South Caucasus Pipeline Company TAPCO Trans-Anatolian Pipeline Company TIKA Turkish International Cooperation and Development Agency US United States 1 Introduction In recent years a great interest in Turkey has arisen, not only because of its flourishing economy and rising population, but also due to its role in European and Middle Eastern energy and security affairs. Many authors agree that Turkey
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