Battle of the Internet Giants IV: TAM'ing the Profit Pool
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May 17, 2016 China: Technology: Internet Equity Research Battle of the Internet giants IV: TAM’ing the profit pool Turning positive on profits and focusing on the ‘Seven Pillars’ For the first time since 2010, we have a high degree of confidence in the BUY-RATED NAMES WITH KEY EXPOSURE TO SEVEN PILLARS long term growth and potential (operating) profit pool for China Internet. Tencent* Baidu Alibaba JD.com This is in contrast to 2010-15 when margins slipped on high competition, Games Online Ad. there was a need to acquire customers, and an impetus to tackle new E‐commerce entrants. As such, we believe now is the right time to examine the 2020E Travel Local Services industry profit pool verticals we call the ‘Seven Pillars’ – games, online Internet Finance advertising, e-commerce, travel, local services, internet finance, and cloud. Cloud Computing *Denotes stock is on our regional Conviction List Four key takeaways Source: Company information, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. On TAM: Mobiles have exploded the overall total addressable market (TAM), with our estimates (ex-fins) suggesting a ~US$10tr opportunity by SEVEN PILLARS OF CHINA INTERNET 2020. We believe the market has underappreciated the stickiness of PC 1. Games: China, living in a virtual world 2. Online advertising: Social, online video and search are gaming and the attraction of mobile games. The next main sector growth growth engines drivers should come from financial services and local services going online. 3. E-commerce: 3x increase to US$1.5tn by 2020E On profit pools: We believe there is immense online profit opportunity 4. Online Travel: A US$200bn opportunity by 2020E 5. Local services O2O: Building a second BABA, US$1.4tn (~US$70bn by 2020E) were these businesses to be run solely to maximize TAM (2020E) profitability, as was the case with Ctrip in 2010, Baidu in 2011 and Alibaba 6. Internet Finance: Tapping the underbanked China in 2013, when operating profit margins were at record levels. consumer; a US$5.4tn opportunity (2020E) 7. Cloud computing: A ~US$20bn opportunity (2020E) On reinvestment: With the profit pool dampened by investment into new businesses, we have started moving towards SOTP valuations to reflect an RELATED RESEARCH Tencent Holdings (0700.HK): Weixin: the north star (2); increasing degree of confidence in synergistic growth. Leveraging current multiple drivers intact; reiterate CL-Buy, April 13, 2016 assets and positioning for the next major opportunities (internet finance, China: Technology: Internet: Upcoming MSCI inclusions: What to own; Tencent to CL-Buy, November 30, 2015 O2O) will be key. NetEase Inc. (NTES) Buy: Games leader and new growth On who is best positioned: Those with social network assets appear best seeker; initiate at Buy, November 25, 2015 China: Technology: Internet: Shopping sans frontières: Buy positioned, due to the growth opportunity, the significant barriers to entry, China online retail – BABA/JD/VIPS, November 6, 2015 the substantial upside to ad-loads, and the time spent on the app. China: Technology: Internet: Planes, Trains, and Hotel Rooms; Buy Ctrip, Qunar, October 26, 2015 Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent could be major beneficiaries China: Financial Services: Internet Finance Part 1: Clash of the Titans unfolds; Midcap banks face risk of We are positive on Tencent (CL-Buy), Baidu (Buy), and Alibaba (Buy) given marginalization, November 14, 2014 their exposure to the three major growth drivers for the online advertising industry into 2020E – social advertising, online video, and search. Also, Alibaba dominates e-commerce via its unique monetization proposition, Tencent is the dominant gaming platform in China, and Baidu the default search engine in China. All three have exposure to local services, while Baidu is ramping up its internet finance arm. Of the remaining pillars, Baidu has online travel exposure via Ctrip (Buy) investment, while Alibaba and Tencent lead in cloud computing, one of the fastest growth areas. Piyush Mubayi +852-2978-1677 [email protected] Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with George Meng, CFA companies covered in its research reports. As a result, +852-2978-0178 [email protected] Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of David Jin, CFA interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors +852-2978-1466 [email protected] Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. should consider this report as only a single factor in making Fan Liu, CFA +86(10)6627-3192 [email protected] Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non- US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment Research May 17, 2016 China: Technology: Internet Table of contents China Internet Opportunity in Pictures 3 China Internet in Numbers 5 PM Summary: ‘Seven Pillars’ drive a ~US$70bn profit pool in 2020E 6 The Seven Pillars of China Internet 10 1. Games: China, living in a virtual world 11 2. Online advertising: Social, online video and search are growth engines 19 3. E-commerce: 3x increase to US$1.5tn by 2020E 30 4. Online travel: A US$200bn opportunity by 2020E 35 5. Local services O2O: Building a second BABA, US$1.4tn TAM (2020E) 38 6. Internet finance: Tapping the underbanked China consumer; a US$5.4tr opportunity (2020E) 42 7. Cloud computing: A ~US$20bn opportunity (2020E) 46 Appendix 1: China internet usage 51 Appendix 2: M&A summary 52 Appendix 3: Valuation and risks 56 Appendix 4: TAM table in details 57 Appendix 5: TAM detail in RMB 59 Disclosure Appendix 60 All prices in this report as of May 13, 2016, unless otherwise noted. The authors would like to thank Jason Huang, Elsie Cheng, Shaphan Ng and Kenneth Bang for their valuable contributions to the report. Exhibit 1: China Internet Comps P/E, non-GAAP PE at TP Last Target +/- Mkt CapPerformance diluted EV/Revenue PEG non-GAAP Company Ticker fx Price Price Side Rating (US$mn) 3Mo YTD 2016E 2017E 2016E 2017E 2016E 2016E 2017E China Internet 58.com WUBA $ 50.50 64.0 27% Neutral 5,803 14% -23% NM 27.8x 4.2x 2.9x NM NM 35.2x Alibaba BABA $ 77.16 100.0 30% Buy 196,758 27% -5% 27.0x 21.6x 8.7x 6.8x 1.1x 35.0x 28.1x Autohome ATHM $ 24.80 - - Not Rated 2,904 4% -29% 16.2x 12.6x 2.6x 2.2x 0.6x - - Baidu BIDU $ 159.75 220.0 38% Buy 56,520 5% -15% 26.6x 17.8x 4.2x 3.5x 0.6x 36.7x 24.5x Changyou CYOU $ 17.67 16.9 -4% Sell 934 9% -29% 9.2x 8.4x 0.7x 0.7x 1.1x 8.8x 8.0x Ctrip CTRP $ 43.01 55.0 28% Buy 21,017 16% -7% 80.8x 30.0x 7.1x 5.3x 0.8x 103.3x 38.4x JD.com JD $ 22.64 33.0 46% Buy 31,092 -2% -30% NM 50.5x 0.7x 0.5x NM NM 73.7x Jumei JMEI $ 5.29 9.5 80% Neutral 799 -4% -42% 14.2x 8.8x 0.5x 0.4x 0.3x 25.4x 15.9x NetEase NTES $ 153.40 182.0 19% Buy 20,281 11% -15% 14.0x 14.3x 3.2x 2.5x 1.9x 16.6x 17.0x Qunar QUNR $ 35.75 45.0 26% Neutral 5,272 2% -32% NM 98.5x 6.3x 4.5x NM NM 124.0x Sina SINA $ 45.50 48.0 5% Neutral 2,683 9% -8% 28.1x 21.3x 1.2x 1.0x NM 29.7x 22.5x Sohu SOHU $ 39.52 41.0 4% Sell 1,529 -11% -31% NM 21.5x 0.4x 0.3x NM NM 22.3x SouFun SFUN $ 5.58 6.8 22% Neutral 2,376 15% -24% NM 16.5x 1.3x 0.9x NM NM 20.1x Tencent 0700.HK HK$ 155.10 193.0 24% Buy* 188,386 16% 2% 28.6x 22.5x 8.6x 7.0x 1.2x 35.6x 28.0x Tuniu TOUR $ 8.97 15.0 67% Neutral 1,190 -18% -44% NM NM 0.4x 0.3x NM NM NM VIPShop VIPS $ 12.00 17.5 46% Buy 7,663 10% -21% 18.8x 14.7x 1.0x 0.8x 0.8x 27.4x 21.4x Weibo WB $ 23.30 22.0 -6% Neutral 5,195 93% 19% 43.7x 24.4x 8.0x 5.6x 0.7x 41.3x 23.0x Median (Sum for Mkt cap) 26% 550,401 9% -23% 26.6x 21.4x 2.6x 2.2x 0.8x 32.3x 23.0x Notes: *Denotes stock is on our regional Conviction List. All target prices are on a 12 month basis. Source: DataStream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2 May 17, 2016 China: Technology: Internet China Internet Opportunity in Pictures Exhibit 2: Seven Pillars of China Internet Notes: TAM = Total Addressable Market. The TAM numbers for e-commerce, travel, O2O, cloud, and internet finance relate to the whole industry size. CAGR is for 2015-2020E (in USD).Top 2 players is by market share. For RMB version please see Appendix 5. Source: iResearch, eMarketer, NBS, CNNIC, Analysys, Wind, Sina news, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Exhibit 3: We expect China’s internet penetration to increase from 50% in 2015 to 60% by 2020 (to 847mn, 97.6% of which would be mobile internet users vs.