DINNERS/ENTREES X BEVERAGES X SNACKS X PIZZA X DESSERTS SEPTEMBER 2015 www.frbuyer.com AheadIn the race to expand of into newthe markets — Packor deeper into existing ones — Sprouts, WinCo Foods, Smart & Final and Costco have moved into the lead. CARL JORGENSEN TODD HALE JOHNNY HARRIS LIZ HAWBLITZEL ON GROWING ON URBANIZATION ON ‘SCROUNDS’ ON ‘LIZGISTICS’ AND ORGANICS AND TINY HOUSES IN THE DAIRY CASE TAKING CHANCES PAGE 20 PAGE 22 PAGE 24 PAGE 62 TABLE OF CONTENTS C O V E R S T O R Y AHEAD OF THE PACK 26 In the race to expand into new markets — or deeper into existing ones — Sprouts, WinCo Foods, Smart & Final and Costco have moved into the lead. THE FRONT END 6 OUT WARREN’S WAY Big Data & Big BS: a dangerous com- T H E D ATA B A N K bination when it comes to pricing. 10 The latest and greatest sales data 8 NEW PRODUCTS from IRI, courtesy of From ice cream cake to iced coffee, Peter Penguin, Bessie we’ve gathered a wide array of must- Bovine and Delano have food and drink. Deli. Bessie’s photo credit: © Can Stock Photo Inc. / phototrekker UPFRONT Peter’s photo credit: 18 © Can Stock Photo Inc. / Clivia Private label FDR’s photo credit: expected to grow © Can Stock Photo Inc. /bberry in dairy and deli. Plus, information CATEGORY SPOTLIGHTS and advice on growing organics. 36 POISED FOR A COMEBACK Although sales were down slightly, a slew of better-for-you, 22 COOL INSIGHTS clean-label newcomers could Urbanization and breathe new life into the frozen tiny houses could dinners/entrees category. have a major impact on our 40 DRINK UP! industry, says The refrigerated juice segment Todd Hale. registered a 1.0% gain, but milk sales are down. Protein- enhanced products and non- 24 JOHNNY’S dairy alternatives could spark a COLUMN turnaround. Johnny says it might 44 SNACKS JUMP 6.2% be time for more All-day snacking — even at ‘scrounds.’ breakfast — is driving growth. But unique, ethnic and vegetarian options could take the category even higher. (Continued on page 4) SEPTEMBER 2015 www.frbuyer.com 3 TABLECOVERTABLE OF OFSTORY CONTENTSCONTENTS (Continued from page 3) CATEGORY SPOTLIGHTS 46 PIZZA MOVES UPSCALE Millennials are helping retailers pull more dollars from fewer units. 55 FROZEN CHEESECAKE UP 3.4% The rest of the desserts category struggled, but a cluster of new single- serve, seasonal and better-for-you offerings may help turn things around. LOGISTICS 59 Google Glass eyes role in logistics, Dean GETTING PERSONAL Foods CEO on logistics costs and more news from around the industry. Plus, what How one woman took a gamble (and won) do the experts think about Walmart’s plan 62 in the male-dominated logistics business. to shift more inventory to DCs? A recent readership study done for us by Litchfi eld Research shows that you like what you’ve been seeing. When compared against Progressive Grocer, Supermarket 6 YEARS & News and Grocery Headquarters, you prefer Frozen & Refrigerated Buyer by a wide margin. You say our maga- zine provides the most practical information, is the most COUNTING engaging to read, and that you would read us fi rst if all the publications came at once. With thanks to our readers and advertisers. Further, you read us more con- sistently, and spend more time hanks to all of you, we’ve just completed our with us than our competitors. sixth year of publishing Frozen & Refrigerated Typical verbatim comments from TBuyer. In that time, we’ve become the domi- the readership study: “More spe- nant magazine in the industry, won eight national and cifi c to dairy/frozen than anyone regional awards for editorial excellence and built a else,” “I have used it many times strong community of readers. to fi nd new items to add to my stores,” and “A good job of being ‘You say our magazine provides objective.” the most practical information and We’re proud of our track re- Paul Chapa cord, but we aren’t resting on our is the most engaging to read… ’ laurels as we prepare to enter 2016. Got any questions or comments? Suggestions for improvement? Story ideas? All of you care about furthering the industry and help- Please contact me at 913-481-5060 or [email protected]. ing it grow. Our goal here, from the start, has been to ! e way we see it, it’s your magazine. ! anks for your produce a vehicle where friends meet, friends are made continued support. Q and business gets done. ! at’s not just rhetoric; it defi nes us. And with your help, we think we have succeeded. —Paul Chapa, co-founder, sales director 4 www.frbuyer.com SEPTEMBER 2015 15-10033 Refrig Frzn Bev_BALNCE_PROD.pdf 1 8/20/15 4:10 PM OUT WARREN’S WAY don’t even want to hear suggested retail prices: “Yeah, like I need them BIG DATA to tell me what to sell it for, right?” VOLUME 7 ISSUE 2 Well, at the risk of really tick- Warren Thayer & BIG BS ing some of you off … maybe you Editorial Director, Managing Partner do. Last month, my pals at IRI put [email protected] It’s a dangerous combination when together a white paper called “Drive 603-252-0507 it comes to pricing. Margin Growth of 1 to 3 Percent Paul Chapa with Collaborative Pricing Strate- ome retailers are getting a Sales Director, Managing Partner gies.” You can get it free at www. [email protected] tad overconfi dent about their iriworldwide.com; at the top of the 913-481-5060 Spricing programs. ! ey’re page, click on Insights, and then on regressing into tactics Denise Leathers Publications. Editor to reach short-term cat- Now, I’m all in fa- [email protected] egory margin goals or vor of retailers min- 215-489-5090 quick hits for knee-jerk ing their own data Janet Matz competitive reasons. and honing their Art Director ! ere are several analytical skills. [email protected] reasons why long-term Hey, algorithms can strategy is taking a back Michelle Jones-Silva be a blast. But if seat to quick fi xes. First, Sales Manager you’re a retailer who [email protected] there’s the need to please doesn’t even listen Wall Street every three Contributing Editors: to ideas off ered by months. Second, there’s Johnny Harris, Todd Hale, vendors — especial- Dan Raftery, Mike Friedman, pricing software now that is pretty ly about pricing — you’re shooting Chef Rick Tarantino, Adrienne darn good — but only if it is used yourself in the instep. (You’re prob- Nadeau, and Keilly Witman. correctly. And third is the lack of ably an arrogant little drip, too.) trust between trading partners, so EDITORIAL ADVISORY BOARD that even honest attempts at the $10 MILLION Dan Raftery, time-honored fantasy of win-win EARNINGS GAINS Raftery Resource Network are often scuttled before the dance At bottom, pricing makes you Bob Anderson, former vp of even begins. Simply put, you can or breaks you. You either lose a private label, Wal-Mart never tell who’s fudging the num- sale with too high a price, or lose bers or just plain lying. Johnny Harris, margin with too low a price. IRI’s Johnny L. Harris Consulting Despite all the talk of “partner- research says that for a typical $1 ship,” too many vendors continue to Skip Shaw, National Frozen billion CPG retailer, a 1% improve- be self-serving with their category & Refrigerated Foods Association ment in price yields net earnings management presentations and Ellen Schmitz, IRI gains of $10 million. ! at same 1% “consumer insights.” If I had my improvement in merchandising Kraig Naasz, way, they’d be required to wear American Frozen Food Institute costs yields just under $8 million, warning labels during sales calls, and for operating costs, it yields Corey Rosenbusch, since they’ve become so adept at under $2 million. Global Cold Chain Alliance misleading “interpretations” of What’s more, price per volume Published by CT Media Partners, “data” when they are “just trying to has shifted in some key categories Postmaster: Send address changes to be helpful.” CT Media Partners, PO Box 1564, since 2011, according to IRI. It’s “Baffl e ‘em with BS” is not a new Norwich, VT 05055 amazing to see the shifts in yogurt, tactic among many vendors. But juices, meat and seafood across their “Big Data” is resulting in “Big diff erent distribution channels. BS,” and if you think retailers aren’t So check out that IRI study. ! is onto that shell game, well… when column was brought to you as a free your IQ reaches 60, you should public service by Frozen & Refriger- probably sell. ated Buyer. ! e lack of transparency and trust has made many retailers tap more deeply into their own scanner data and pony up for pricing soft- Warren ! ayer, Editor ware. Retailers often tell me, with [email protected] irritation in their voices, that they 6 www.frbuyer.com SEPTEMBER 2015 14-4602_FDBAd2012_fp.pdf 1 September/21/12 2:11 PM C M Y CM MY CY CMY K T. Marzetti Company 1105 Schrock Rd. P.O. Box 29163 Columbus, OH 43229-0163 614-846-2232 Fax 614-842-4186 www.marzetti.com www.sisterschuberts.com NEW PRODUCTS Peanuts Ice Cream Cakes wrapped organic ice cream sandwiches are available in In advance of the November release of The Peanuts Movie, Ginger Wipeout, Strawberry Surfer Girl, Bitchin’ Chocolate Buffalo, N.Y.-based Rich Products Corp. (www.richs.com) Chocolate, Key Lime Cowabunga, Surfi n’ Safari Chocolate debuts a pair of Chip and dairy- and gluten-free DaKine (vegan).