First Stage of FOCRAII 2012
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Effects of Climate Change on the World's Oceans
3rd International Symposium Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans March 21–27, 2015 Santos, Brazil Table of Contents Welcome � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � v Organizers and Sponsors � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �vi Notes for Guidance � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �ix Symposium Timetable � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � x List of Sessions and Workshops � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � xiii Floor Plans � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �xiv Detailed Schedules � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 1 Abstracts - Oral Presentations Keynote � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �77 Plenary Talks � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �79 Theme Session S1 Role of advection and mixing in -
Climate Disasters in the Philippines: a Case Study of the Immediate Causes and Root Drivers From
Zhzh ENVIRONMENT & NATURAL RESOURCES PROGRAM Climate Disasters in the Philippines: A Case Study of Immediate Causes and Root Drivers from Cagayan de Oro, Mindanao and Tropical Storm Sendong/Washi Benjamin Franta Hilly Ann Roa-Quiaoit Dexter Lo Gemma Narisma REPORT NOVEMBER 2016 Environment & Natural Resources Program Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs Harvard Kennedy School 79 JFK Street Cambridge, MA 02138 www.belfercenter.org/ENRP The authors of this report invites use of this information for educational purposes, requiring only that the reproduced material clearly cite the full source: Franta, Benjamin, et al, “Climate disasters in the Philippines: A case study of immediate causes and root drivers from Cagayan de Oro, Mindanao and Tropical Storm Sendong/Washi.” Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Cambridge, Mass: Harvard University, November 2016. Statements and views expressed in this report are solely those of the authors and do not imply endorsement by Harvard University, the Harvard Kennedy School, or the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Design & Layout by Andrew Facini Cover photo: A destroyed church in Samar, Philippines, in the months following Typhoon Yolanda/ Haiyan. (Benjamin Franta) Copyright 2016, President and Fellows of Harvard College Printed in the United States of America ENVIRONMENT & NATURAL RESOURCES PROGRAM Climate Disasters in the Philippines: A Case Study of Immediate Causes and Root Drivers from Cagayan de Oro, Mindanao and Tropical Storm Sendong/Washi Benjamin Franta Hilly Ann Roa-Quiaoit Dexter Lo Gemma Narisma REPORT NOVEMBER 2016 The Environment and Natural Resources Program (ENRP) The Environment and Natural Resources Program at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs is at the center of the Harvard Kennedy School’s research and outreach on public policy that affects global environment quality and natural resource management. -
Ensemble Forecast Experiment for Typhoon
Ensemble Forecast Experiment for Typhoon Quantitatively Precipitation in Taiwan Ling-Feng Hsiao1, Delia Yen-Chu Chen1, Ming-Jen Yang1, 2, Chin-Cheng Tsai1, Chieh-Ju Wang1, Lung-Yao Chang1, 3, Hung-Chi Kuo1, 3, Lei Feng1, Cheng-Shang Lee1, 3 1Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, NARL, Taipei 2Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, National Central University, Chung-Li 3Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei ABSTRACT The continuous torrential rain associated with a typhoon often caused flood, landslide or debris flow, leading to serious damages to Taiwan. Therefore the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) during typhoon period is highly needed for disaster preparedness and emergency evacuation operation in Taiwan. Therefore, Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute (TTFRI) started the typhoon quantitative precipitation forecast ensemble forecast experiment in 2010. The ensemble QPF experiment included 20 members. The ensemble members include various models (ARW-WRF, MM5 and CreSS models) and consider different setups in the model initial perturbations, data assimilation processes and model physics. Results show that the ensemble mean provides valuable information on typhoon track forecast and quantitative precipitation forecasts around Taiwan. For example, the ensemble mean track captured the sharp northward turning when Typhoon Megi (2010) moved westward to the South China Sea. The model rainfall also continued showing that the total rainfall at the northeastern Taiwan would exceed 1,000 mm, before the heavy rainfall occurred. Track forecasts for 21 typhoons in 2011 showed that the ensemble forecast has a comparable skill to those of operational centers and has better performance than a deterministic prediction. With an accurate track forecast for Typhoon Nanmadol, the ability for the model to predict rainfall distribution is significantly improved. -
Typhoon Haiyan Action Plan November 2013
Philippines: Typhoon Haiyan Action Plan November 2013 Prepared by the Humanitarian Country Team 100% 92 million total population of the Philippines (as of 2010) 54% 50 million total population of the nine regions hit by Typhoon Haiyan 13% 11.3 million people affected in these nine regions OVERVIEW (as of 12 November) (12 November 2013 OCHA) SITUATION On the morning of 8 November, category 5 Typhoon Haiyan (locally known as Yolanda ) made a direct hit on the Philippines, a densely populated country of 92 million people, devastating areas in 36 provinces. Haiyan is possibly the most powerful storm ever recorded . The typhoon first ma de landfall at 673,000 Guiuan, Eastern Samar province, with wind speeds of 235 km/h and gusts of 275 km/h. Rain fell at rates of up to 30 mm per hour and massive storm displaced people surges up to six metres high hit Leyte and Samar islands. Many cities and (as of 12 November) towns experienced widespread destruction , with as much as 90 per cent of housing destroyed in some areas . Roads are blocked, and airports and seaports impaired; heavy ships have been thrown inland. Water supply and power are cut; much of the food stocks and other goods are d estroyed; many health facilities not functioning and medical supplies quickly being exhausted. Affected area: Regions VIII (Eastern Visayas), VI (Western Visayas) and Total funding requirements VII (Central Visayas) are hardest hit, according to current information. Regions IV-A (CALABARZON), IV-B ( MIMAROPA ), V (Bicol), X $301 million (Northern Mindanao), XI (Davao) and XIII (Caraga) were also affected. -
WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate in 2011
WMO statement on the status of the global climate in 2011 WMO-No. 1085 WMO-No. 1085 © World Meteorological Organization, 2012 The right of publication in print, electronic and any other form and in any language is reserved by WMO. Short extracts from WMO publications may be reproduced without authorization, provided that the complete source is clearly indicated. Editorial correspondence and requests to publish, reproduce or translate this publication in part or in whole should be addressed to: Chair, Publications Board World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 7 bis, avenue de la Paix Tel.: +41 (0) 22 730 84 03 P.O. Box 2300 Fax: +41 (0) 22 730 80 40 CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland E-mail: [email protected] ISBN 978-92-63-11085-5 WMO in collaboration with Members issues since 1993 annual statements on the status of the global climate. This publication was issued in collaboration with the Hadley Centre of the UK Meteorological Office, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland; the Climatic Research Unit (CRU), University of East Anglia, United Kingdom; the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS), the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the National Weather Service (NWS) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), United States of America; the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) operated by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), United States; the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), United States; the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), United Kingdom; the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), Germany; and the Dartmouth Flood Observatory, United States. -
Appendix 8: Damages Caused by Natural Disasters
Building Disaster and Climate Resilient Cities in ASEAN Draft Finnal Report APPENDIX 8: DAMAGES CAUSED BY NATURAL DISASTERS A8.1 Flood & Typhoon Table A8.1.1 Record of Flood & Typhoon (Cambodia) Place Date Damage Cambodia Flood Aug 1999 The flash floods, triggered by torrential rains during the first week of August, caused significant damage in the provinces of Sihanoukville, Koh Kong and Kam Pot. As of 10 August, four people were killed, some 8,000 people were left homeless, and 200 meters of railroads were washed away. More than 12,000 hectares of rice paddies were flooded in Kam Pot province alone. Floods Nov 1999 Continued torrential rains during October and early November caused flash floods and affected five southern provinces: Takeo, Kandal, Kampong Speu, Phnom Penh Municipality and Pursat. The report indicates that the floods affected 21,334 families and around 9,900 ha of rice field. IFRC's situation report dated 9 November stated that 3,561 houses are damaged/destroyed. So far, there has been no report of casualties. Flood Aug 2000 The second floods has caused serious damages on provinces in the North, the East and the South, especially in Takeo Province. Three provinces along Mekong River (Stung Treng, Kratie and Kompong Cham) and Municipality of Phnom Penh have declared the state of emergency. 121,000 families have been affected, more than 170 people were killed, and some $10 million in rice crops has been destroyed. Immediate needs include food, shelter, and the repair or replacement of homes, household items, and sanitation facilities as water levels in the Delta continue to fall. -
Tropical Storm Tembin
Emergency Plan of Action (EPoA) Philippines: Tropical Storm Tembin DREF n° MDRPH026 Glide n° TC-2017-000180-PHL; TC-2017-000182-PHL Date of issue: 22 December 2017 Categorization of crisis1: Yellow Operations manager: Point of contact: Patrick Elliott Atty. Oscar Palabyab Operations Manager Secretary General IFRC Philippine Country Office Philippine Red Cross Operation start date: 22 December 2017 Operation timeframe: 1 month, 22 January 2018 Operation budget: CHF 31,764 DREF allocation: CHF 31,764 N° of people affected: To be determined after landfall N° of people to be assisted: 5,000 Red Cross Red Crescent Movement partners actively involved in the operation: PRC is working with the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) in this operation. There are 12 Partner National Societies with presence in the Philippines. PRC and IFRC are also coordinating with International Committee of the Red Cross on this operation. Other partner organizations actively involved in the operation: Government ministries and agencies including the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD), the Philippine Armed Forces, the Philippine National Police Force and Local Government Units are providing assistance to affected households. PRC have a seat on the NDRRMC. A. SITUATION ANALYSIS Description of the disaster There have been two significant weather systems to enter the Philippines Area of Responsibility (PAR) since 12 December 2017. Tropical Storm Kai-tak: On 12 December 2017, a low-pressure area (LPA) within the PAR developed into a Tropical Depression which was named Kai-tak (locally Urduja). The tropical depression moved north northwest, and by 14 December was reclassified as a Tropical Storm. -
Scale and Spatial Distribution Assessment of Rainfall-Induced Landslides in a Catchment with Mountain Roads
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 687–708, 2018 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-687-2018 © Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Scale and spatial distribution assessment of rainfall-induced landslides in a catchment with mountain roads Chih-Ming Tseng1, Yie-Ruey Chen1, and Szu-Mi Wu2 1Department of Land Management and Development, Chang Jung Christian University, Tainan, 71101, Taiwan (ROC) 2Chen-Du Construction Limited, Taoyuan, 33059, Taiwan (ROC) Correspondence: Chih-Ming Tseng ([email protected]) Received: 14 July 2017 – Discussion started: 4 October 2017 Revised: 27 December 2017 – Accepted: 22 January 2018 – Published: 2 March 2018 Abstract. This study focused on landslides in a catchment Landslide susceptibility can be evaluated by analysing the with mountain roads that were caused by Nanmadol (2011) relationships between landslides and various factors that are and Kong-rey (2013) typhoons. Image interpretation tech- responsible for the occurrence of landslides (Brabb, 1984; niques were employed to for satellite images captured before Guzzetti et al., 1999, 2005). In general, the factors that af- and after the typhoons to derive the surface changes. A mul- fect landslides include predisposing factors (e.g. geology, to- tivariate hazard evaluation method was adopted to establish pography, and hydrology) and triggering factors (e.g. rainfall, a landslide susceptibility assessment model. The evaluation earthquakes, and anthropogenic factors) (Chen et al., 2013a, of landslide locations and relationship between landslide and b; Chue et al., 2015). Geological factors include lithological predisposing factors is preparatory for assessing and map- factors, structural conditions, and soil thickness; topograph- ping landslide susceptibility. -
The Year That Shook the Rich: a Review of Natural Disasters in 2011
THE YEAR THAT SHOOK THE RICH: A REVIEW OF NATURAL DISASTERS IN 2011 The Brookings Institution – London School of Economics Project on Internal Displacement March 2012 Design: [email protected] Cover photo: © Thinkstock.com Back cover photos: left / © Awcnz62 | Dreamstime.com; right / © IOM 2011 - MPK0622 (Photo: Chris Lom) THE YEAR THAT SHOOK THE RICH: A REVIEW OF NATURAL DISASTERS IN 2011 By Elizabeth Ferris and Daniel Petz March 2012 PUBLISHED BY: THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION – LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS PROJECT ON INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT Bangkok, Thailand — Severe monsoon floods, starting in late July 2011, affected millions of people. A truck with passengers aboard drives through a heavily flooded street. Photo: UN/Mark Garten TABLE OF CONTENTS Acronyms ................................................................................................................................. vi Foreword ................................................................................................................................. ix Executive Summary ................................................................................................................. xi Introduction .............................................................................................................................. xv Chapter 1 The Year that Shook the Rich ...................................................... 1 Section 1 Disasters in the “Rich” World, Some Numbers ............................................ 5 Section 2 Japan: The Most Expensive Disaster -
Disaster Response Shelter Catalogue
Disaster Response Shelter Catalogue Disaster Response Shelter Catalogue Disaster Response Shelter Catalogue Copyright 2012 Habitat for Humanity International Front cover: Acknowledgements Sondy-Jonata Orientus’ family home was destroyed in the 2010 earthquake We are extremely grateful to all the members of the Habitat for Humanity that devastated Haiti, and they were forced to live in a makeshift tent made of network who made this publication possible. Special thanks to the global tarpaulins. Habitat for Humanity completed the family’s new home in 2011. © Habitat Disaster Response community of practice members. Habitat for Humanity International/Ezra Millstein Compilation coordinated by Mario C. Flores Back cover: Editorial support by Phil Kloer Top: Earthquake destruction in Port-au-Prince, Haiti. © Habitat for Humanity International Steffan Hacker Contributions submitted by Giovanni Taylor-Peace, Mike Meaney, Ana Cristina Middle: Reconstruction in Cagayan de Oro, Philippines, after tropical storm Washi. Pérez, Pete North, Kristin Wright, Erwin Garzona, Nicolas Biswas, Jaime Mok, © Habitat for Humanity Internationa/Leonilo Escalada Scarlett Lizana Fernández, Irvin Adonis, Jessica Houghton, V. Samuel Peter, Bottom: A tsunami-affected family in Indonesia in front of their nearly completed Justin Jebakumar, Joseph Mathai, Andreas Hapsoro, Rudi Nadapdap, Rashmi house. © Habitat for Humanity International/Kim McDonald Manandhar, Amrit Bahadur B.K., Leonilo (Tots) Escalada, David (Dabs) Liban, Mihai Grigorean, Edward Fernando, Behruz Dadovoeb, Kittipich Musica, Additional photo credits: Ezra Millstein, Steffan Hacker, Jaime Mok, Mike Meaney, Nguyen Thi Yen. Mario Flores, Kevin Kehus, Maria Chomyszak, Leonilo (Tots) Escalada, Mikel Flamm, Irvin Adonis, V. Samuel Peter, Sara E. Coppler, Tom Rogers, Joseph Mathai, Additional thanks to Heron Holloway and James Samuel for reviewing part of Justin Jebakumar, Behruz Dadovoeb, Gerardo Soto, Mihai Gregorian, Edward the materials. -
The Effect of Warm Water and Its Weak Negative Feedback on the Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Hato (2017)
Vol.26 No.4 JOURNAL OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY Dec 2020 Article ID: 1006-8775(2020) 04-0402-15 The Effect of Warm Water and Its Weak Negative Feedback on the Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Hato (2017) HUO Zi-mo (霍子墨), DUAN Yi-hong (端义宏), LIU Xin (刘 欣) (State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 China) Abstract: Typhoon Hato (2017) went through a rapid intensification (RI) process before making landfall in Zhuhai, Guangdong Province, as the observational data shows. Within 24 hours, its minimum sea level pressure deepened by 35hPa and its maximum sustained wind speed increased by 20m s-1. According to satellite observations, Hato encountered a large area of warm water and two warm core rings before the RI process, and the average sea surface temperature cooling (SSTC) induced by Hato was only around 0.73℃. Air-sea coupled simulations were implemented to investigate the specific impact of the warm water on its RI process. The results showed that the warm water played an important role by facilitating the RI process by around 20%. Sea surface temperature budget analysis showed that the SSTC induced by mixing mechanism was not obvious due to the warm water. Besides, the cold advection hardly caused any SSTC, either. Therefore, the SSTC induced by Hato was much weaker compared with that in general cases. The negative feedback between ocean and Hato was restrained and abundant heat and moisture were sufficiently supplied to Hato. The warm water helped heat flux increase by around 20%, too. Therefore, the warm water influenced the structure and the intensity of Hato. -
Local Newsletter 18
N° 18 – March 2012 European Union Ambassadors visit victims of typhoon Sendong in Cagayan De Oro Tropical Storm Washi, known locally as Sendong, struck the northeastern coast of Mindanao on 16 December 2011. It brought over 142 millimeters of rain falling in a mere 12 hours. This triggered deadly flash floods from three major rivers, killing over 1,400 people, most of them in the cities of Cagayan de Oro and Iligan. Several European countries acted quickly by sending rescue teams and aid materials to the affected towns or by providing financial support for the relief effort. In total, the European Union and its member states contributed 6.8 million Euro (around 375 million Pesos) for the affected regions in Northern Mindanao. From Belgium, a contribution of 300,000 Euros was received from the Regional Government of Flanders and another 100,000 Euros from the Regional Government of Wallonia. On January 4 & 5 2012, a group of European Ambassadors and diplomats visited Cagayan de Oro to witness the devastation and provide support for the ongoing relief operations. After a tour of the affected areas, they visited several evacuation centers operated by the Philippine Red Cross and the International Organisation for Migration (IOM). European Union Ambassador Guy Ledoux discussing Temporary shelter provided by the European countries emergency operations with representatives of the and the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) in Philippine Red Cross a school near Cagayan De Oro Mr Jozef Naudts, First Secretary of the Belgian Embassy, Wood and construction materials are being distributed in and Mr Rick Gordon, President of the Philippine Red order to start reconstruction of houses that have been Cross, handing out aid packages to some of the victims partly destroyed by tropical storm Sending Pictures © 2011 Thelma Gecolea – EU delegation Manila 1 Belgian Company ENEXT introduces “waste-to-energy” technology in the Philippines ENEXT Environmental Protection and Renewable Energy bvba is a Belgian Small and Medium Enterprise (SME), established since 2009.