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S41598-021-93942-X.Pdf www.nature.com/scientificreports OPEN Using dense seismo‑acoustic network to provide timely warning of the 2019 paroxysmal Stromboli eruptions A. Le Pichon1*, C. Pilger2, L. Ceranna2, E. Marchetti3, G. Lacanna3, V. Souty1, J. Vergoz1, C. Listowski1, B. Hernandez1, G. Mazet‑Roux1, A. Dupont1 & P. Hereil4 Stromboli Volcano is well known for its persistent explosive activity. On July 3rd and August 28th 2019, two paroxysmal explosions occurred, generating an eruptive column that quickly rose up to 5 km above sea level. Both events were detected by advanced local monitoring networks operated by Istituto Nazionale di Geofsica e Vulcanologia (INGV) and Laboratorio di Geofsica Sperimentale of the University of Firenze (LGS‑UNIFI). Signals were also recorded by the Italian national seismic network at a range of hundreds of kilometres and by infrasonic arrays up to distances of 3700 km. Using state‑ of‑the‑art propagation modeling, we identify the various seismic and infrasound phases that are used for precise timing of the eruptions. We highlight the advantage of dense regional seismo‑acoustic networks to enhance volcanic signal detection in poorly monitored regions, to provide timely warning of eruptions and reliable source amplitude estimate to Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAAC). Located in the Aeolian Islands, in Southern Italy, the Stromboli volcano (38.789N 15.213E, 920 m) is known worldwide for its persistent explosive activity of mild intensity from its open vent summit craters. Its ordinary explosive activity, repeating frequently at a rate of ~ 13 explosions/hour1, erupts scoria and ash up to a height of ~ 100–200 m above the craters, with ejecta fallout typically confned a circular crater of about 350 m diameter. Tis activity has been extensively studied with multiple geophysical observations, spanning from ground defor- mation and seismicity 2–5, infrasound6,7, infrared thermometry8,9, doppler radar10 and videogrammetry 11,12. Te ordinary activity at Stromboli is occasionally punctuated by major explosions and paroxysms13,14. Paroxysms represent the largest-scale historical explosive events capable of generating convection plumes up to a height of 10 km and ejecting meter-sized blocks up to distances of 2 km from the vents reaching settled areas of Stromboli island. Te catalog of paroxysms at Stromboli starts from 187913. Since then, 23 paroxysms occurred before 2003 and 4 between 2003 and 201915,16. One of the main risks at Stromboli is due to tsunamis, which are able to afect not only the island but the whole coastal regions of southern Italy 14. Caused by landslide or sector collapses, as well as pyroclastic fows entering the sea, at least 8 tsunamis related to Stromboli happened between 1879 and 2003 13,17. On December 2002, a subaerial 11.6 Mm 3 and submarine 9.5 Mm 3 landslide at Stromboli 18,19 triggered a tsunami wave that locally reached a height of 10 m, impacted the other Aeolian islands, and reached coastal regions of Southern Italy 17,20. Another risk associated with explosive eruptions is related to the emission of volcanic ash in the atmosphere. During an eruption, volcanic ash can reach and exceed the cruising altitudes of aeroplanes within minutes and spread over vast geographical areas within a few days. Encounters with volcanic ash may result in several prob- lems such as malfunction or failure of engines. Afer some dramatic ash encounters by airplanes in the 1980’s, International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has set up the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW). IAVW is based on 9 Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) designated by ICAO to provide near-real-time information on the largest possible number of volcanic events that afect aviation. Stromboli is located in the area of responsibility of the Toulouse VAAC, which includes a large part of Europe and Africa. In the IAVW chain of information, state volcano observatories play an essential role in providing to the VAACs near real time information on volcano activity from their monitoring networks. 1CEA/DAM/DIF, 91297 Arpajon, France. 2BGR, B4.3, 30655 Hannover, Germany. 3Department of Earth Sciences, University of Firenze, 50121 Firenze, Italy. 4Meteo France, Toulouse VAAC , 31057 Toulouse, France. *email: [email protected] Scientifc Reports | (2021) 11:14464 | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-93942-x 1 Vol.:(0123456789) www.nature.com/scientificreports/ Unexpected changes in explosion intensity at Stromboli are due to the dominant role of shallow conduit processes triggering paroxysmal activity 21. On July 3rd and August 28th 2019, the volcano produced such par- oxysms, followed by intense explosive and intermittent efusive activity. Visual observations and the analysis of the fall deposits allowed to characterize pyroclasts and reconstruct ballistic exit velocities of up to 160 m/s22. Paroxysms are driven by deep magma batches 23 that eventually fragment in the shallow system producing the observed eruptive columns24,25. Short-term precursors of the July 3rd and August 28th 2019 paroxysms were identifed26. Te 2019 episodes consisted of large volcanic explosions, a few seconds apart, from diferent sum- mit craters. Te released eruptive column reached a height of ~ 5 km and produced a fall-out of lithic blocks, decimeter-sized scorias and ash afecting the summit areas as well as the inhabited settlements of the island. Te collapse of the eruptive columns produced pyroclastic fows along the Sciara del Fuoco that entered the sea and triggered local tsunamis that reached wave heights of 1 m27. Following the July 3rd explosions, the eruptive plume rose up the summit. Te explosion was monitored in real time by two networks deployed and operated on the island by Laboratorio di Geofsica Sperimentale of the University of Florence (LGS-UNIFI)28 and Istituto Nazionale di Geofsica e Vulcanologia (INGV)29. With this event, INGV rapidly issued a volcano activity warning 30 min afer the eruption through its 24/7 operating system (https://www. ct. ingv. it/ index. php/ monit oragg io-e- sorve glian za/ prodo tti- del- monit oragg io/ comun icati- attiv ita- vulca nica). Te Toulouse VAAC, then issued a Volcanic Ash Advisory (VAA) to the ICAO accounting for the presence of a volcanic ash cloud, drifing northerly. Tis VAA was based on satellite observations of the volcanic ash cloud. On August 28th, short-time ground deformation precursors allowed an alert to be issued 5 min before the onset of the eruption 30 and a Volcano Observatory Notice for Aviation (VONA) was sent by INGV about 30 min afer the paroxysmal explosion, alerting for the presence of an ash plume rising up to 5 km above sea level (http:// www. ct. ingv. it/ index. php/ monit oragg io-e- sorve glian za/ prodo tti- del- monit oragg io/ comun icati- vona). A VAA was then issued by Toulouse VAAC announcing the presence of a drifing ash cloud in the vicinity of the volcano. Infrasound observations can provide additional information about active volcanic processes 31. Te 2019 paroxysms were recorded at hundreds of kilometres across the permanent Italian seismological network oper- ated by INGV, and in the far-feld up to ~ 3700 km, by infrasound stations part of the International Monitoring System (IMS) completed by national arrays. At regional scales (e.g. beyond the frst stratospheric returns at 150–200 km), combining observations from seismo-acoustic arrays allows improving operation monitoring methods to discriminate between natural and anthropogenic phenomena32. Johnson and Malone33 demonstrated that the source chronology and the timing of eruptions can successfully be calculated from ground-coupled airblasts observed at seismic stations. Analyzing records of dense seismic networks such as the transportable USArray34 or the European AlpArray35 provided unprecedented spatial detail of the infrasound ground foot- print, allowing the detection and localization of both natural and man-made events with great precision. Using state-of-the-art modeling, the new era of massive datasets ofers an opportunity to examine the propagation of infrasound wavefeld across regional seismic network in more detail than previously possible and invert source information of a volcanic eruption. In this study, we identify infrasound radiation from the 2019 eruptions recorded at both near- and far-feld infrasound arrays as well as by seismic stations distributed across Italy. We show how far-feld measurements are capable for providing timely warning to VAACs and estimating the source amplitude for remote volcanoes where local instrumentation is missing. Results Infrasound observations. Te increased number of operating IMS stations and the establishment of regional infrasonic arrays demonstrate unprecedented potential of such an enhanced network in terms of detec- tion capability, in particular for remote volcano monitoring36,37. In addition, national seismoacoustic monitoring systems have been developed in central Europe over several decades to fll a gap in the global IMS network38. Nowadays, the detection and location capabilities of combined networks ofer a unique opportunity to investi- gate methods for discriminating between natural and artifcial acoustic sources, as well as to better understand seismoacoustic coupling mechanisms at the Earth’s interface39,40. Figure 1 shows the relevant infrasound network surrounding Stromboli over the Euro-Mediteranean region. At the time of the July 3rd and August 28th eruptions, easterly stratospheric wind fow prevailed at 30–60 km altitude and favored westward stratospheric propagation. Infrasound records at four IMS stations (IS26, IS42, IS37, IS48) and three national infrasound arrays (AMT, OHP, CEA) are analyzed. Table S1 highlights the detec- tions for the July and August eruptions in short to medium distances (AMT: 543 km; IS48: 618 km; OHP: 977 km; IS26: 1124 km; CEA: 1509 km), as well as at long ranges (IS37: 3379 km; IS42: 3711 km), covering western (IS48, IS42) to northern (IS26, IS37) directions. Figure S1 presents an example of infrasound detection at the IMS station IS48 for the July eruption.
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